ICC Cricket World Cup - Part 2

guildfordbat wrote:

alfie wrote:Good win for Australia in the end

Sri Lankan chase started really well and they were right in it for a long time...but the rest of the order couldn't follow Karunaratne's example and it all fell away : much credit to Starc who did the serious damage.

But also a word for Maxwell who made a significant contribution in not getting smashed so solving the fifth bowler problem...

Australia in an interesting position right now : on course for the semis barring catastrophe ; not quite sure what their best XI is ; not over impressive really - yet managing to get the job done in all except the India game...are they near favorites or just hopefuls ?  Perhaps the contests with England and NZ will give us a better idea...

One thing we can say : Finch is doing a wonderful job as leader in both the captaincy and opening bat areas : full marks to him

Hi Alfie - yes, Maxwell undoubtedly made a significant contribution to Australia's win. He bowled well and effectively.

I did feel though that the Sri Lankan batsmen were a little too respectful of him. Worth remembering that Richardson and Behrendorff were leaking runs when he came on early in the proceedings (12th over, I think). Having just checked, Richardson had gone for 16 in 2 overs and Behrendorff for 32 in 3.  I wondered if they were a bit too wary about getting out to a part-timer when he first bowled and that they were confident that they could comtinue to milk Richardson and Behrendorff whenever they were bowling. As things transpired, Maxwell got into a groove (perhaps not too surprisingly having been treated with respect from the start) whilst Richardson and Behrendorff were better later on.

I agree with KP_f that Maxwell is unlikely to always bowl as well in this tournament as he did yesterday. That's not taking anything away from what he achieved yesterday. However, I suspect Australia would be better off regarding him as the sixth bowler who might be turned to and be effective rather than relying on him as the fifth bowler to have to bowl a (near) full allocation and be effective.

I don't know this  Aussie ODI side and the rest of their squad well enough to be categoric but I would look to get Lyon in the eleven. Maybe for S Marsh from yesterday's team although I don't know if that would weaken the batting too much?

Gooseberry wrote:Going back to Leinsterfans comment . ...

It's all very well and romantic but Ireland have been given all the chances to build on their success including test status. But since being given more exposure their team has gone backwards horribly.
They are now back behind Zimbabwe, overhauled and on recent results Scotland too, neither of whom are close to and Afghanistan side that is getting absolutely ruined here. The gap between the top sides and the likes of Sri Lanka is bad enough, but we could do without 13-0s.

Sadly the likes of Kenya and Holland just don't feature at all anymore.

Let the Olympics have 10 over amateur pajama rounders to pretend that it's a global game and let the 1% of the world population outside India who care get on with enjoying a competitive professional sport.

Snobbery? Absolutely, its cricket.


Sadly cricket just isnt ready for that many teams. Even Sri Lanka cant provide a decent team any more , we would be much better placed ensuring the few countries that do have a culture and following for it can rebuild and sustain that. They've lost Zimbabwe already, Ireland tried and failed, Bangladesh Sri Lanka and the West Indies are all in danger.
Inviting more junk that largely exists to enable board members to pocket ICC cash isnt going to help save the few boards that are producing decent teams.

Duty281 wrote:BET365 currently have it thusly on the 'to reach semi-final' market:

England 1/20. India 1/12. Australia 1/12. New Zealand 1/3. Windies 5/2. Pakistan 9/2. South Africa 9/1. Bangladesh 20/1. Sri Lanka 33/1. Afghanistan 250/1.

Like most of us, they don't think it's particularly open either.

KP_fan wrote:Imad Wasim no more than a Part-time spinner picked as a specialist 5th bowler...is worse than Hafeez and Shoaib......a bad pick over a specialist seamer like Afridi

Don't be surprised if Pandya hits him for 4 SIXES in an over if he gets to bat against him or the other spinner Shadab

Pak's team section and bowling first lopsided and with their lengths they are seemingly too nervous and unsettled.

robbo277 wrote: [

I think there's a bit more in it than others on here, but I've done an analysis and tried to keep it neutral. I have assumed no NRs for simplicity, but one of these now at the wrong time could be terminal for a team's chances.

Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Afghanistan aren't offering much. For the remaining fixtures, I've given everyone 2 points from matches against them. If you slip up against them you probably don't deserve the semi-finals, but everyone SHOULD beat them.

New Zealand have played all 3 of these, but everyone else in the reckoning has games left against these 3. England and India play 2 of them, Australia play 1. West Indies have 3 games against these teams, while Pakistan play 2 and SA 1. Adjusting the table for this:

Aus - Pld 6, Pts 10
Eng - Pld 6, Pts 10
Ind - Pld 5, Pts 9
WI - Pld 7, Pts 9
NZ - Pld 4, Pts 7
Pak - Pld 6, Pts 7
SA - Pld 6, Pts 5

Working the numbers through from here, I would say that any team that gets 11 will likely make the semi-finals. 12 is a near-enough certainty. The chance of Australia, England or India missing out on the points are remote, so I will focus on the chance of New Zealand missing out. They have to play the 3 teams who are all looking to overturn them as well as Australia and England. They could probably win or lose any of those games, there's no obvious result in any of them.

West Indies

West Indies (as the odds suggest) are therefore the most likely to crash the party. With a game left against NZ, if they can win that one they can change the equation to:

WI - Pld 8, Pts 11
NZ - Pld 5, Pts 7

West Indies final game will be against India, and even if we take that as a bridge too far, West Indies can finish on 11 points. This would leave NZ needing to get two wins against Pakistan and South Africa (or if they drop 1 of those then they'll need to win one of the Australia/England games in the final games). Achievable, but if they lose to West Indies and West Indies clean up the minnows, it may be closer than some might think.

Pakistan

Pakistan finish against the 2 minnows. The next 3 games for them are obviously the big one against India, and then crucial games against SA and NZ. To get to that 11 points they need to win 2 of these. Although I wouldn't rule out them beating India (I think "derby" games as a rule generally have more opportunity to confound form book and expectations), I would say their best chances would be winning the other two. Beating South Africa would effectively eliminate them and beating NZ would take points from the team who will end up being their main rivals.

If Pakistan and WI both beat NZ, both could end up on 11, alongside NZ if they win 2 of their 3 games against South Africa, England and Australia. I think 11 points is a realistic target for both these countries and if they get there and miss out then they'll just have to accept it as bad luck.

South Africa

South Africa have to play NZ next up for both teams and this is an elimination game for SA. In truth, all of South Africa's games are elimination games. Lose one and they're capped at 9 points and it would take some very questionable permutations to get them into the semifinals.

So South Africa win all 4. Assuming neither Pakistan or West Indies beat India I can't see either of those getting past 11 points. So the question will be whether NZ can, which they would be able to do by winning 3 of 4 against Pakistan, West Indies, England and Australia. 3 would be tougher for them, but SA winning all 4 assumes they'll beat Australia, so that's no less likely than NZ knocking over England, for example.

So while NZ are favourites for the semi-finals, their next 3 games are against the 5th, 6th and 7th teams in the tournament who will all be gunning hard for them as for all of them their hopes are underpinned on beating NZ. NZ would go a long way to the semi-finals if they could beat 2 of these teams, but unless they can win all 3 the door will be open going into the final 2 rounds.

alfie wrote:Nice analysis , robbo...and the tipping competition scores say your judgement is pretty good  

But I wouldn't be guaranteeing West Indies wins against all the "Minnows" : I've actually picked Bangladesh to beat them with reasonable hopes I think - and I wouldn't totally write off Sri Lanka though that one looks a lot less likely to go wrong.

You are right that things are still very much open - at least mathematically.  What we are really missing is major surprise results ...maybe some around the corner ?

Gooseberry wrote:Riaz now warned as well. Pakistan in danger of absolutely falling apart.

50/50 game in KPF terms

KP_fan wrote:
2- The other minor variable is an outside chance of Eng being knocked out ....they have to win atleast one of the games against NZ, Ind or Aus ( and not lose to Lanka or Afg is deemed given)

Duty281 wrote:India lose a wicket. Mind you, I don't think they'll mind too much, Rahul was really struggling to score consistently.

robbo277 wrote:

KP_fan wrote:
2- The other minor variable is an outside chance of Eng being knocked out ....they have to win atleast one of the games against NZ, Ind or Aus ( and not lose to Lanka or Afg is deemed given)

There is a theoretical chance of England going out, even if they win their next 2.

If England can win 3 game (Sri Lanka, Afghanistan and 1 more), I think they're set. Again assuming no NRs, West Indies and Pakistan can't get 12 without beating India. Bangladesh can't get 12 without beating Australia and India. South Africa can't get to 12 at all.

So the chance comes if England lose all 3 to India, Australia and New Zealand. If you put England at 50/50 in all those games, that's a 1/8 chance they don't get the 12 points to effectively guarantee qualification.

Then the 4 members of the chasing pack on 3 points could all get to 11 points with 4 wins. So:

South Africa would have to win all their last 4 including NZ and Aus
Bangladesh would have to win 4 of their last 5 including one of Aus or India
Pakistan would have to win 4 of their last 5 including one of India or NZ
West Indies would have to win 4 of their last 5 including one of India or NZ

So after you've calculated that 1/8 chance of England not making 12 points, you have to factor in one of these 4 teams picking up an upset win from a top team. West Indies beating 3 minnows and NZ would represent the best chance.

The thing that would really hurt England is having one or both of the next two rained off (assuming they won't lose across 100 overs). But even then, I don't think we'll end up losing all 3 of the final 3.

robbo277 wrote:

KP_fan wrote:
2- The other minor variable is an outside chance of Eng being knocked out ....they have to win atleast one of the games against NZ, Ind or Aus ( and not lose to Lanka or Afg is deemed given)

If England can win 3 game (Sri Lanka, Afghanistan and 1 more), I think they're set. Again assuming no NRs, West Indies and Pakistan can't get 12 without beating India. Bangladesh can't get 12 without beating Australia and India. South Africa can't get to 12 at all.

So the chance comes if England lose all 3 to India, Australia and New Zealand. If you put England at 50/50 in all those games, that's a 1/8 chance they don't get the 12 points to effectively guarantee qualification.

James100 wrote:Very good ten overs from Imad, bowled with great control, drift and more spin than I've seen him get previously in SENA. Under 5-an-over in this situation is top stuff.

Pal Joey wrote:Is that larger stand (full of Indian fans) a temporary one put up for this World Cup or part of a recent redevelopment at OT from a couple of years ago... do you know?