ICC Cricket World Cup - Part 3

First topic message reminder :

Table

Australia	8	14	1.00
India	7	11	0.85
New Zealand	8	11	0.57
England	8	10	1.00
Pakistan	8	9	-0.80
Sri Lanka	8	8	-0.93
Bangladesh	7	7	-0.13
South Africa	8	5	-0.08
West Indies	8	3	-0.36
Afghanistan	8	0	-1.42

Remaining Pool Fixtures

Tue, Jul 2 
10:30 Bangladesh vs India (Edgbaston)

Wed, Jul 3 
10:30 England vs New Zealand (Riverside Ground)

Thu, Jul 4 
10:30 Afghanistan vs West Indies (Headingley)

Fri, Jul 5 
10:30 Bangladesh vs Pakistan (Lord’s)

Sat, Jul 6 
10:30 India vs Sri Lanka (Headingley)
13:30 Australia vs South Africa (Old Trafford)




Knock Out Fixtures


To Follow

Achievable target for Afghanistan, but they've probably let Bangladesh get about 20-30 more than what they would have been comfortable with. Hopefully some of the Afghan batsmen will have learnt lessons from their excursions on the same pitch just a couple of days ago, particularly around the short ball.

It's quite a simple analysis, but if Bangladesh can't defend these they can probably say goodbye to their semi-final hopes. It will leave them 3 points behind with 2 games left, against India and a Pakistan side who would also be fighting for that semi-final spot.

The Sri Lanka game has really opened up this tournament, there's something riding on pretty much every game this week.

KP_fan wrote:

Pal Joey wrote:What do you reckon, KP? 270?

I'll go 262.

Bang on!

BD bowling exactly the type of bowling that they should not...i.e medium pace that is easiest to score off

They should bowl either 140+...that they do not have
or spin or juts slow cutters

Criminal waste of the new ball from the non-threatening Bangladeshi seamers. It's down to Shakib and Mehidy to deliver the win for their side.

Shakib has really taken control of this game for his team. Bangladesh would have to try really hard to lose this one from here.

Makes an England win all the more important tomorrow with Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Pakistan all chasing hard and hoping to capitalise on a further slip.

Checking the forecast, there's a lot of overnight rain but it should clear for the day's play. The drainage is very good as well, so if the rain stays away after 10 there shouldn't be any issues.

Roy has been ruled out which doesn't help, but he's only one player. England will hopefully put qualification out their mind and play like they have done for the last 4 years, with a bit of freedom to smash the ball and make a big score. Everything is in our hands so there's no need to overcomplicate anything or worry about NRR, just win the game and everything else is incidental.

robbo277 wrote:Shakib has really taken control of this game for his team. Bangladesh would have to try really hard to lose this one from here.

Makes an England win all the more important tomorrow with Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Pakistan all chasing hard and hoping to capitalise on a further slip.

Checking the forecast, there's a lot of overnight rain but it should clear for the day's play. The drainage is very good as well, so if the rain stays away after 10 there shouldn't be any issues.

Roy has been ruled out which doesn't help, but he's only one player. England will hopefully put qualification out their mind and play like they have done for the last 4 years, with a bit of freedom to smash the ball and make a big score. Everything is in our hands so there's no need to over-complicate anything or worry about NRR, just win the game and everything else is incidental.

-Shakib has quietly risen to sit  credibly in the pantheon of all time great all-rounders both in tests and ODIs

-Looking forward to Tomm's game after the drab result of the day....
between two heavy weights and  tournament situation makes it a very alive & high stake game for both sides.
While Eng's situation vastly discussed already.....is on  slightly more slippery...Aus ain't in the clear yet.....they lose tomm and they have the not easy task of  beating one of SA or NZ.

-For me both teams start 50-50 tomm....man to man Eng is better and more balanced , but their ability to deliver under pressure not proven compared to Aussies in my view...........Especially if Eng has to chase.

I noticed that a lot of people were blaming lower order bowlers for their batting in Eng's last game...for trying to hit big strokes..

It surprises me a bit because that's the proudly publicized template of Eng( and vastly successful in bilateral games)......to keep going bang-bang, boom-boom and chase down at 6 to 7 RPO even if the totals are small.
" Keep coming at Oppn even when going down"...and that's what lower order attempted.

The ones guilty of not following their own template were Root 57(90 balls) and Morgan 21(35)  
Had they followed their own template and Root gotten even 80 off 90 and Morgan smacked 40 of 35 balls (on the day it mattered)......Eng would have been home safe and dry.

-What I would be keenly observing tomm...is if two defeats will make Eng dump their aggressive batting template & adopt an India like get set preserve wickets until last 10overs

Whats changed is having Vince at the top of the order playing to preserve his career and getting out anyway. Add that to the unfortunate loss of Bairstow earlier and the pressure of noit messing up a low score chase you saw the middle order clam up and do exactly what England wouldnt when full of confidence. Sri Lankas pre announced bowling plan worked well to this end too. They had specifically gone out to frustrate and make england gift wickets rather than what we have seen across most of the cup with much more aggressive bowling. England having lost early wickets played into this beautifully. 

Do not expect them to play like that if batting first against a stronger side, and doubly so when Roy is back. 

On to today and theres grey cloud around and a chance of rain early,but nothing to threaten a full match. A point would have suited Aus nicely, and to be honest Id take that for England too. But chances of tie are pretty slim. 
Dont see that England have much they can do with selections, although theres a small chance that Moeen will get ditched dependant on how they read the pitch.  No Denly in the squad means Vince has to get another chance. 
Theres further talk that Lyon might come in for Aus.
Pitch has some grass on it, and with a grey start teams might well fancy bowling first.

Vince opening against Starc and Cummins on a green seamer under cloudy skies? *gulp*

Haven't been too impressed by either England or Australia at this tournament so far, though the home side have greater scope for improvement. A lot of pressure on Vince and Bairstow to succeed, a fair bit of focus on Moeen, too. Let's see how they respond.

The pitch even in the Pak-SA game accorded seam movement with new ball to Amir and reverse with the old ball for Riaz....and there was something for spinners.
270 is par for me.

Aus would have fixed their one weaklink if they bring in Lyon...it's a no brainer.

Bet365 puts Eng as slight favorites at 8/11 to Aus's 11/10

Archer having a fitness test is not the news I wanted to hear early this morning

Another Shakib masterclass, another Bangladesh win. Shakib showed with bat and ball, a half-century and a 5for!
Good showing from Mushfiqur too. Mosaddek doing justice to the finisher's job assigned to him and Mahmudullah.
But some questionable batting order shuffling. Soumya Sarkar has been giving them fast starts at the top, just because he doesn't have the best of records against Mujeeb, he was pushed down the order. And Soumya got out to Mujeeb in the end despite all that, and that too without scoring a run against the offie. Liton Das of course is more of a top order player, but batted brilliantly against the West Indies, and looked the part at 5. They should have stuck with him at 5 rather than unnecessarily pushing him around the batting order. You should trust Sarkar to overcome his weakness rather than running for cover at the very possibility of an offspinner bowling to him upfront. Among the different players tried, Liton seems to be their best bet for a middle order role along side Mushfiqur and Mahmudullah. Stick with him, give him a good solid run in there, he's more likely to succeed...

Lyon has to start ahead of Zampa for me. He is the much better bowler and will cause England some issues in the middle overs.

Moeen simply does not do enough with the bat against strong sides so he has to be dropped for this match.

Big game coming up. I would put England ahead at 55-45. They have pushed themselves into a bit of a corner through that Sri Lanka game. Old England would most certainly have lost this one, but the new England is a different side, they are likely to comeout with a far more positive approach today.
The pitch will be very important, if it is a flat track, then Australia's chances would start at only 25 percent as England are nearly unbeatable on a flat track with their batting depth and multiple bowling options with different skill sets.

Good Golly I'm Olly wrote:Archer having a fitness test is not the news I wanted to hear early this morning

I noted and wrote that he was down on pace in the last game operating in high 130s mostly

Lyon for Zampa is something that Australia just refuse to try though that seems to be the more sensible option. Rist spin has increased value in today's ODI cricket for sure, but Zampa is far too inconsistent to demand automatic selection just because he's a legspinner.

Side strains are tricky ones for fast bowlers. If we'd beaten Sri Lanka or even if Roy was fit you'd say to definitely rest Archer. Now everything will be slightly more twitchy in the England camp.

I still think there's no need to panic. 1 from 3 should be achievable. I agree with KPF, we went too far from our template in the other game and we didn't execute the new plan well.

If Sri Lanka got a low score and we're going to bat slow to get it around the 47 over mark, then we shouldn't have lost the wickets we did. Root getting strangled down the leg-side is one that sticks in the mind. If there's scoreboard pressure and you need to keep scoring then you can live a dismissal like that, if you're just nudging it around at 4 an over then let that one go through as a wide and make the bowler bowl it again.

I'd like England to make a statement today and go out for a big, big score. If they bat first and score 350 and beat Australia, then all the negativity goes away. Yes, have a look at the pitch, but keep looking to score.

Archer declared fit. Excellent scenes

England win the toss and field first. Half the battle won.

Lyon in and Eng have to chase.....game 70-30 in Aus favor already

With 4 seamers, 2 spinners and Root as a 7th bowler we can afford to carry Archer a little bit. Maybe give him 7 today instead of 10. But a few in his first spell under the cloud and I'm sure he'll be chomping at the bit to get the ball back in his hand later in the innings.

Our opening bowlers against their opening bats is going to be the first of many big battles today, but it may be the biggest. If we can get them 2 down in the powerplay with Finch and Warner gone, that would massively shape how this game goes.

KP_fan wrote:Lyon in and Eng have to chase.....game 70-30 in Aus favor already

Have a word with yourself, darling. Bet365 moved England from 8/11 to 8/13 after they chose to field because it's a clear bowl-first morning.

About 60-40 in England's favour.

KP_fan wrote:Lyon in and Eng have to chase.....game 70-30 in Aus favor already

If it is, then it was more than 70-30 in Aus's favour before the toss.

Toss was a big one this morning. Whoever won it was clearly going to choose to bowl as it is likely to move around this morning and get easier later.

So a choice between facing Stark and Cummins with a moving ball, or Archer, Woakes and Wood bowling with a moving ball. No brainer.

Plus England are happier chasing.

Duty281 wrote:

KP_fan wrote:Lyon in and Eng have to chase.....game 70-30 in Aus favor already

Have a word with yourself, darling. Bet365 moved England from 8/11 to 8/13 after they chose to field because it's a clear bowl-first morning.

About 60-40 in England's favour.

bet365 weighs too muhc on recent record ( of bilateral games)...and you know my view on bilaterals.

KP_fan wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

KP_fan wrote:Lyon in and Eng have to chase.....game 70-30 in Aus favor already

Have a word with yourself, darling. Bet365 moved England from 8/11 to 8/13 after they chose to field because it's a clear bowl-first morning.

About 60-40 in England's favour.

bet365 weighs too muhc on recent record ( of bilateral games)...and you know my view on bilaterals.

The point being that they moved the odds in England's favour after learning they would be fielding first...England having to chase is a good thing (for them), not a bad thing as you implied.

Still, I trust you'll be taking the 13/10 on Australia. Absolute gift if the Aussies really are 70% favourites.

I have some money on Aus

I don't altogether agree that Australia batting first makes England hot favorites.
Yes pitch might look juicy , and early wickets could see them struggle to get a big score . But if they handle the early overs - and in fairness their openers are in some good form ! - they might still get something tricky for England to chase. Which is where the nerves that destroyed them against Sri Lanka might easily strike again...
Lyon is a good inclusion for Australia. Likes bowling to England.

England having inserted them will want to make this their perfect bowling day. Woakes has had a pretty ordinary WC so far , and Archer seems to be showing signs of wear and tear , apparently - though he must surely be OK or they'd be nuts to risk him - so I'm seeing this first ten overs as Rather Important for match and qualification...

Its bowl first conditions regardless as Duty says. Theres a chance that rain could affect play too which tends to favour a chasing side. 

That said Aus have made a solid enough start.

There are no hot favourites in this game. It's evenly matched IMO, but bowling first definitely tilts it in your favour today

Well, I've only got it 60-40 in England's favour. Not strong favourites, but favourites nonetheless, boosted slightly by bowling first.

DRS time! That looked out. Umpire's call, ahhhh.

Couple of mistimes edges just evading England fielders so far (Vince almost pulling off a miracle catch at backward point there)

Finch enjoying some early good fortune...couple of uncontrolled shots , one just over slips , one dropped (though it would have been an amazing catch if brought off) . Both off well pitched up balls...really need to get their length fuller ...
England can't get an lbw on referral but at least retain their review. That was pitched up . Message there.

Good Golly I'm Olly wrote:Couple of mistimes edges just evading England fielders so far (Vince almost pulling off a miracle catch at backward point there)

Bit cruel to put those down as dropped catches, as the statistics seem to indicate.

England are getting so close yet so far. These moments could define the match

Not entirely sure how Finch/Warner survived that Woakes over...but they did!

Duty281 wrote:Well, I've only got it 60-40 in England's favour. Not strong favourites, but favourites nonetheless, boosted slightly by bowling first.

DRS time! That looked out. Umpire's call, ahhhh.

Only looked "out" to hopeful England fans

Was always umpires call at best , I thought.

Luck with Australia so far.

Agree it was reasonable to send them in , by the way , given the conditions. But I'm not as confident of the England bowling as many on here....in general I think they've been better defending a solid score recently than the reverse - rather contrary to previous habits. They've not used the conditions too well so far.

Long way to go but you'd want a wicket soon...

10 overs down, 44/0. Much skill and a pinch of luck for the Australian openers to survive that opening burst, while not many of the balls delivered by the English were going on to hit the stumps. Archer was quite poor.

Archer clearly a long way from 100% fitness as evidenced by the way he 'chased' that ball to the boundary rope.

Duty281 wrote:Archer clearly a long way from 100% fitness as evidenced by the way he 'chased' that ball to the boundary rope.

Yes, he looks a little sore. Think they will really try and go after him in his second spell.

there defnitely was seam movement....and Aus lucky with edges not going to hand BUT

1- Eng was juts a foot or two feet short of the right length.
Anderson, Bhuvi or Shami might have had a side 5-50 in 12 overs here.

2-Archer doesn't look like a new ball bowler for these conditions....he was bowling IPL & flat pitches length.

Also his speeds have been between 138-141kph..that about 5 to 8Ks down on what we saw in early statges of the tournament

Eng are up and against it

Looking very ominous for England now.

Woakes not enjoying much luck today. A few "nearly" moments ...he has at least presented a threat.
Archer really didn't bowl very well. I do fear he's been getting a bit carried away with the speed gun and the short ball lately. He's had decent results against the "lesser" teams ; but I'm not surprised it didn't work against the Aussies , who are fairly used to quick bowling. He will learn , I'm sure....hopefully when he come back on later !

In the meantime it's getting to the point where we say bowling first hasn't produced results for the seamers and we better hope the spinners are on the ball ! Though first it's a chance for Stokes (rather underused so far in this WC)

You would have thought England would have learnt by now that bowling short isn't quite the ticket; but nope, first ball of the 16th over is short and sent to the rope.

Aus are absolutely riding their luck here. Amazing they havent given more genuine chances.

First session all Australia. Don't say I didn't warn you.

At least they've not run away with the run rate ; but unless Moeen and Rashid can do a job this is already looking like 300 on a pitch that gives the pace bowlers a fair bit of help. I fancy Starc and Cummins will be a handful if its still moving around later.

Is it too early to panic ?

I would say that Australia are looking to get around 320-330 on this track. I think that would be a very decent score. England will struggle to get that.

alfie wrote:First session all Australia.  Don't say I didn't warn you.

At least they've not run away with the run rate ; but unless Moeen and Rashid can do a job this is already looking like 300 on a pitch that gives the pace bowlers a fair bit of help.  I fancy Starc and Cummins will be a handful if its still moving around later.

Is it too early to panic ?

Don't think you can send in poor old James Vince on that wicket this morning tho Alf! Bowlers have been poor so far, only really Woakes has bowled "ok" and that was more towards the end of his spell. Disappointing start

Australia have weathered that early storm and started to get at England's bowlers. It's not too late if England can get one or both these guys now to slow the momentum down and make Australia rebuild, but if they stay in for another 10 overs they'll have caught up the run rate and have a very good platform for a big score.

Haha

True , Olly. Vince against Starc and Cummins on this

Mind you I'm not convinced he will enjoy it later on either...Roy is proving a huge loss.

Not over yet ; but they're going to be chasing plenty and it's going to need a batting performance the like of those they were putting in regularly before the World Cup pressure arrived. Otherwise I fear the campaign might be virtually over a bit early...