ICC Cricket World Cup - Part 3

First topic message reminder :

Table

Australia	8	14	1.00
India	7	11	0.85
New Zealand	8	11	0.57
England	8	10	1.00
Pakistan	8	9	-0.80
Sri Lanka	8	8	-0.93
Bangladesh	7	7	-0.13
South Africa	8	5	-0.08
West Indies	8	3	-0.36
Afghanistan	8	0	-1.42

Remaining Pool Fixtures

Tue, Jul 2 
10:30 Bangladesh vs India (Edgbaston)

Wed, Jul 3 
10:30 England vs New Zealand (Riverside Ground)

Thu, Jul 4 
10:30 Afghanistan vs West Indies (Headingley)

Fri, Jul 5 
10:30 Bangladesh vs Pakistan (Lord’s)

Sat, Jul 6 
10:30 India vs Sri Lanka (Headingley)
13:30 Australia vs South Africa (Old Trafford)




Knock Out Fixtures


To Follow

Galted wrote:

Pal Joey wrote:

Good Golly I'm Olly wrote:To be honest I think they need a rocket up em

And sharp

Well they just had 2 rockets fired up them; Behrendorff and Starc... and that certainly didn't work, did it?

If you now start issuing threats to certain players 'to perform or else', that could also backfire.

Hence the suggestion above to perhaps try a different approach. Not saying it's an easy thing to do though.

Burning effigies of players works for India and Pakistan.

Maybe just park the bulldozer outside Vince's house. Set up some tiger tape and orange cones... and some bearded women wearing high viz vests.

Great recovery partnership from these two. Around 240 runs would make a decent total to defend.

Would possibly be pushing the point to say that this partnership is England's best of the World Cup, but it could turn into an important one for us.

It's an innings saving partnership, and if NZ can back it up with the ball it could turn into a match-winning one.

A loss here would mean a dangerous Pakistan are 1 result away from elimination (either them losing one of their last two, England winning one of their last two or either team suffering a washout).

slightly below par total ( par is around 250 in my view) inspite fo that good partnership from  NZ allrounders.....something to bowl at and fight

Pak 55-45 ahead...and if they want to win the world cup,. they have to show they can chase down 240ish today

NZ's weak 4th and 5th bowler will hurt them today......Santner ain't anywhere near the top spinners in the tournament and Neesham / Grandhomme......juts dibbly dobbly
So Pak should look at milking 110 runs of those overs..

Decent first 10 overs from Pakistan. They've scored at the RRR and only lost 1 wicket. Wickets will be so crucial for NZ to defend this total.

Super catch from Guptil to dismiss Imam.

NZ playing 5 seamers and missing the 2nd spinner on this pitch.....sodhi it should have been and in place of Henry.

Even a "non-spinner" like Santner is getting the ball to turn square

you might be forgiven if you walked in just and saw the game on TV and thought it was in Chittagong or Chennai

Pakistan's win today has sure put the cat among the England pigeons! You need a bigger brain than mine to work out all the permutations but it looks like we may well have to beat both India and New Zealand to make the semis. Right?

guildfordbat wrote:Pakistan's win today has sure put the cat among the England pigeons! You need a bigger brain than mine to work out all the permutations but it looks like we may well have to beat both India and New Zealand to make the semis. Right?

you would think so, seeing though Pakistan have Afghanistan and Bangladesh left. you expect them to beat both

robbo277 wrote:England are 10/3 with SkyBet to win the World Cup, although there is a price boost so you can get that at 4/1. Not sure what the pre-tournament odds were, but we're hardly dead and buried. We're third favourites in any event.

The above is not a validation of Eng's relatively strong position, but rather a confirmation of the fallacy in betting methodologies.
Which are heavily reliant on the statistical data of the last year or two  of bilateral games. The completely fail to appreciate subjective(s) like:

1-Decline in performance due to pressures of BIG stage...such as seen in general with all sides in the tournament and especially more pronounced in case of Eng.
What would have been a par or a defendable score in 1987 world cup is also a defendable score now in 2019
The  par-score has fallen by 50 to 80 runs

2- There are sides that can elevate their levels on big stage....and how Pak's bowling is firing with pace and good spin.... and batting raised its standards...they are looking the world cup contedners they were in 1992 and 1999.

If I were to do a subjective assessment of probabilities ....Pak's probability of beating Afg=1 ( 100%) and steam rolling BD about 70 to 80% ( lets say 0.7)
Probability of pak making it to 11 point  is= 1*0.7=0.7  i.e 70%

Probability of Eng beating India in Edgbaston is 20% or 30% if I was liberal ( 0.3)
and Probability of Eng beating NZ  is 50% ( 0.5)
so probability of Eng getting to 12 points = =0.3*0.5= 0.15 i.e 15%

Pak is 4 to 5 times more probable to make it to semis now than Eng....and give the way the are playing now.....once in semis they can win the world cup too.
So if you want to make a calculated gamble bet on pak...they  give you a 10 times return

It’s interesting for sure!

Would you rather have the destiny in your own hands but two tough games (on paper) - ie. England’s position

Or

Out of your hands but two easier games on paper - Pakistan’s position

I am very much a have it in your own hands man...but Pakistan are in a good position after the win today no doubt

Good win for Pakistan and well played by both sides.  NZ with an excellent recovery after losing five wickets, then Pakistan's steady batting following the loss of their openers.  

This tournament is getting very interesting.  It seems to me that only the fourth spot in the table (last semi-final qualifying position) is up for grabs between:
England (8 pts played 7): To play: India; NZ
Bangladesh (7 pts played 7): To play: India; Pakistan
Pakistan (7 pts played 7):To Play: Afghanistan; Bangladesh
Sri Lanka (6 pts played 6): To Play: S. Africa; W. Indies; India

I think I would have to favour Pakistan to get the fourth spot. Of course a washout could have an impact.  Not sure what has happened to South Africa.

Ps I know that Pakistan vs India is a huge rivalry - but what about Bangladesh vs Pakistan (They were once West & East Pakistan), and Bangladesh vs India.  I suppose in the past Bangladesh never posed much of a cricketing threat so are not considered a rival - but maybe there are cultural rivalries (??)

Thanks for your responses, gentlemen. In line with Bertie's post, I was just thinking that it would be rough if any of the remaining games get washed out to see a team miss out on or even scrape into the semis.

guildfordbat wrote:Thanks for your responses, gentlemen. In line with Bertie's post, I was just thinking that it would be rough if any of the remaining games get washed out to see a team miss out on or even scrape into the semis.

Weather looks very dry for the next week across the country, so unlikely to see any washouts.

No name Bertie wrote:
Ps I know that Pakistan vs India is a huge rivalry - but what about Bangladesh vs Pakistan (They were once West & East Pakistan), and Bangladesh vs India.  I suppose in the past Bangladesh never posed much of a cricketing threat so are not considered a rival - but maybe there are cultural rivalries (??)

I used to read the comments sections on Cricinfo which have now ceased to exist.  There was a lot of animosity between Indian & Bangladeshi and Indian & Sri Lankan fans, much more so than between Indian & Pakistani.  Obviously the number of people posting was a miniscule percentage but, no matter who was playing, the comments would often degenerate into nasty slanging matches between these sets of fans.  Made for pretty entertaining, if uninformative, reading as a neutral.

compelling and rich wrote:

guildfordbat wrote:Pakistan's win today has sure put the cat among the England pigeons! You need a bigger brain than mine to work out all the permutations but it looks like we may well have to beat both India and New Zealand to make the semis. Right?

You would think so, seeing though Pakistan have Afghanistan and Bangladesh left. you expect them to beat both

You never know with Pakistan. They could easily lose one of those - especially Bangladesh. But they are finishing well so I'd expect them to win both - meaning these last two games are sudden death for England.

On pre-tournament form you'd fancy England to do so (having just lost two in a row the law of averages says they are due some good games !) but I fear the confidence is way down right now and they are going to need some luck. Also concerned about Morgan who was sounding slightly delusional when interviewed after the game : He thought England "bowled well up front. Were not too short..." Really ? I hope he was just trying to keep spirits up...

KP_fan is going a bit over the top (surprise!) in claiming Pakistan four or five times more likely to qualify. But I reckon they are favourites at the moment.

KP_fan wrote:

robbo277 wrote:England are 10/3 with SkyBet to win the World Cup, although there is a price boost so you can get that at 4/1. Not sure what the pre-tournament odds were, but we're hardly dead and buried. We're third favourites in any event.

The above is not a validation of Eng's relatively strong position, but rather a confirmation of the fallacy in betting methodologies.
Which are heavily reliant on the statistical data of the last year or two  of bilateral games. The completely fail to appreciate subjective(s) like:

1-Decline in performance due to pressures of BIG stage...such as seen in general with all sides in the tournament and especially more pronounced in case of Eng.
What would have been a par or a defendable score in 1987 world cup is also a defendable score now in 2019
The  par-score has fallen by 50 to 80 runs

2- There are sides that can elevate their levels on big stage....and how Pak's bowling is firing with pace and good spin.... and batting raised its standards...they are looking the world cup contedners they were in 1992 and 1999.

If I were to do a subjective assessment of probabilities ....Pak's probability of beating Afg=1 ( 100%) and steam rolling BD about 70 to 80% ( lets say 0.7)
Probability of pak making it to 11 point  is= 1*0.7=0.7  i.e 70%

Probability of Eng beating India in Edgbaston is 20% or 30% if I was liberal ( 0.3)
and Probability of Eng beating NZ  is 50% ( 0.5)
so probability of Eng getting to 12 points = =0.3*0.5= 0.15 i.e 15%

Pak is 4 to 5 times more probable to make it to semis now than Eng....and give the way the are playing now.....once in semis they can win the world cup too.
So if you want to make a calculated gamble bet on pak...they  give you a 10 times return

You don't understand gambling

Well it's a shame for me there's not a KP Fan bookies as I'd definitely have a nibble at the 50-1 or so he'd offer for England to win the World Cup!

Interestingly enough, BET365 haven't bought into KP_fan's advanced mathematics. They make it evens that England make the semis (a great price); 11/10 that Pakistan do so. SkyBet are even tighter offering 8/11 that England make the semis.

What I find more intriguing is the possibility of New Zealand being knocked out. If they lose both their final games to Australia and England, and Pakistan win both their final games, then NZ/Pak will both finish on 11 points. Will the margins be big enough for the needed swing in net run rate, is the only question in that scenario.

India has an important game vs WI today...and WI is a dangerous side that beat Pak and has run Aus and NZ close.

From an Indian P.O.V it seems they will be confronted with Bhuvi or Shami choice as Bhuvi is likely to be fit.
Playing Bhuvi makes sense as his fitness will get tested in a game where even if he doesn't come through India, might be able to make up with Shankar....as opposed to trying him in the Eng game.
A fit Bhuvi gives you about 15 runs from No. 8 and that can mean a 40 run partnership with an established batsman....should we need it in a tight game.

The other box that India would like checked is some runs from Shankar at number 4.

Duty281 wrote:

What I find more intriguing is the possibility of New Zealand being knocked out. If they lose both their final games to Australia and England, and Pakistan win both their final games, then NZ/Pak will both finish on 11 points. Will the margins be big enough for the needed swing in net run rate, is the only question in that scenario.

If you so like to simulate MMO scenarios then here are a few scenario more probable than NZ not qualifying

Eng remains at 8 points and finishes at No. 6  
( Pak at no. 4 and Lanka at no. 5 by beating  WI, SA )

and worse if BD beats Ind in addition to the above then they finish with 9 points and Eng drops to No. 7  

KP_fan wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

What I find more intriguing is the possibility of New Zealand being knocked out. If they lose both their final games to Australia and England, and Pakistan win both their final games, then NZ/Pak will both finish on 11 points. Will the margins be big enough for the needed swing in net run rate, is the only question in that scenario.

If you so like to simulate MMO scenarios then here are a few scenario  more probable than NZ not qualifying

Eng remains at 8 points and finishes at No. 6  
( Pak at no. 4 and Lanka at no. 5 by beating  WI, SA )

and worse if BD beats Ind in addition to the above then they finish with 9 points and Eng drops to No. 7  

If we don't qualify I don't really care if we finish 5th, 6th or 7th.

There is a not insignificant chance that NZ will miss out on the semi-finals, but the one thing in their favour is their net run rate. Pakistan will need a couple of big wins over Afghanistan and Bangladesh and need New Zealand to take a couple of hammerings. Haven't sat down and worked out the exact margins, but I think it would take some swing.

KP_fan wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

What I find more intriguing is the possibility of New Zealand being knocked out. If they lose both their final games to Australia and England, and Pakistan win both their final games, then NZ/Pak will both finish on 11 points. Will the margins be big enough for the needed swing in net run rate, is the only question in that scenario.

If you so like to simulate MMO scenarios then here are a few scenario  more probable than NZ not qualifying

Eng remains at 8 points and finishes at No. 6  
( Pak at no. 4 and Lanka at no. 5 by beating  WI, SA )

and worse if BD beats Ind in addition to the above then they finish with 9 points and Eng drops to No. 7  

Or India could lose all four of their final games and finish seventh.

[quote="robbo277"
There is a not insignificant chance that NZ will miss out on the semi-finals, .[/quote]

Hope & love for your national sides can create more delusion than induced by "substance use"
Good luck everybody

India wins the toss and bats first and that already puts them nose ahead against this unpredictably dangerous WI side
Shami plays and Bhuvi sits out

Probably not worth noting that West Indies have a hugely theoretical chance of qualification here...

West Indies beat India, Sri Lanka and Afghanistan to finish on 9 points
England lose to India and New Zealand to finish on 8 points
Bangladesh lose to India and beat Pakistan to finish on 9 points
Pakistan beat Afghanistan and lose to Bangladesh to finish on 9 points
Sri Lanka lose to West Indies and India to finish on a maximum of 8 points (South Africa game irrelevant)

None of those matches individually are too unlikely, but the chances of absolutely all of them falling into place is pretty remote for the West Indies.

Equally as remote is the chance of India not making the top 4. A loss here and they have 3 games left against teams scraping to get into that top 4. You'd have to say you can't see them dropping that many games, but at the moment they don't have the points on the board (because of the weird scheduling) so they're still mathematically in a fight for qualification here.

If India lost here, to England and Sri Lanka, for example, England and Sri Lanka could both finish on 12 points and leave India behind on 11 points with a win against Bangladesh. Another long shot, but it does add a bit to this game, especially if West Indies bat first and get some runs on the board.

KP_fan wrote:

robbo277 wrote:
There is a not insignificant chance that NZ will miss out on the semi-finals, .

Hope & love for your national sides can create more delusion than induced by "substance use"
Good luck everybody

More just pointing out possible permutations.

If I were taking drugs this early on a Thursday morning I'd probably be in a field in Somerset, not posting on a cricket forum.

robbo277 wrote:

KP_fan wrote:

robbo277 wrote:
There is a not insignificant chance that NZ will miss out on the semi-finals, .

Hope & love for your national sides can create more delusion than induced by "substance use"
Good luck everybody

More just pointing out possible permutations.

Its also worth pointing out that this asteroid might hit planet Earth before the 4th ashes test starts

https://www.space.com/asteroid-could-hit-earth-in-september-2019.html

KP_fan wrote:

robbo277 wrote:

KP_fan wrote:

robbo277 wrote:
There is a not insignificant chance that NZ will miss out on the semi-finals, .

Hope & love for your national sides can create more delusion than induced by "substance use"
Good luck everybody

More just pointing out possible permutations.

 

Its also worth pointing out that this asteroid might hit planet Earth before the 4th ashes test starts

https://www.space.com/asteroid-could-hit-earth-in-september-2019.html

We'll probably be begging for it by then after seeing our openers against Starc and co for 3 tests

I think half the Windies team wish they were in a strawberry field near Glastonbury... hope they get an early mark after today.

robbo277 wrote:

KP_fan wrote:

robbo277 wrote:
There is a not insignificant chance that NZ will miss out on the semi-finals, .

Hope & love for your national sides can create more delusion than induced by "substance use"
Good luck everybody

More just pointing out possible permutations.

If I were taking drugs this early on a Thursday morning I'd probably be in a field in Somerset, not posting on a cricket forum.

I think he was making snide remarks about Hales, who's more likely being equally bitter and smugly satisfied in a gutter outside a Nottingham nightclub. Assuming hes not been arrested.

Gooseberry wrote:

robbo277 wrote:

KP_fan wrote:

robbo277 wrote:
There is a not insignificant chance that NZ will miss out on the semi-finals, .

Hope & love for your national sides can create more delusion than induced by "substance use"
Good luck everybody

More just pointing out possible permutations.

If I were taking drugs this early on a Thursday morning I'd probably be in a field in Somerset, not posting on a cricket forum.

I think he was making snide remarks about Hales, who's more likely being equally bitter and smugly satisfied in a gutter outside a Nottingham nightclub. Assuming hes not been arrested.

I wouldn't worry too much, Goose. Stokes is just a phone call away...

I thought that was more pad than bat.

Amazing that this competition that was so boring a week or so ago as the final four was already settled now sees only one team safe and two out of contention with just a dozen games left...

Anyone who claims to know what is going to happen from here is talking rubbish. All the teams ( even India who so nearly succumbed to Afghanistan) are capable of putting in a poor performance - or an outstanding one - on a given day. Yes there are "probabilities" but bookmakers get rich because there are always plenty of people ready to mistake "probable" for "certain" and wager accordingly...

For the neutral , this last week or so is looking pretty tasty ! Nearly every game has some potential effect on the possible permutations. Hopefully the weather won't complicate it any more...but surely we got our share of that form of disruption early on and it's going to be clear now ?

Slightly surprised England are such short odds to qualify but I presume it's a combination of points actually in hand and a lot of home fans placing bets.

Pal Joey wrote:I thought that was more pad than bat.

Hi Joey - said on commentary here that it was ''conclusive''. Not to me.

guildfordbat wrote:

Pal Joey wrote:I thought that was more pad than bat.

Hi Joey - said on commentary here that it was ''conclusive''. Not to me.

Yes Guildford, I could have sworn I saw a bit of daylight between bat and ball on the first view from behind the stumps. Inconclusive to me too.

alfie wrote:Amazing that this competition that was so boring a week or so ago as the final four was already settled now sees only one team safe and two out of contention with just a dozen games left...

Anyone who claims to know what is going to happen from here is talking rubbish. All the teams ( even India who so nearly succumbed to Afghanistan) are capable of putting in a poor performance - or an outstanding one - on a given day. Yes there are "probabilities" but bookmakers get rich because there are always plenty of people ready to mistake "probable" for "certain" and wager accordingly...

For the neutral , this last week or so is looking pretty tasty ! Nearly every game has some potential effect on the possible permutations.  Hopefully the weather won't complicate it any more...but surely we got our share of that form of disruption early on and it's going to be clear now ?

Slightly surprised England are such short odds to qualify but I presume it's a combination of points actually in hand and a lot of home fans placing bets.

Bets probably inspired by Olly's enthusiasm and Duty's keenness to prove KP_f wrong!

More seriously, Alfie, I agree with your thoughts and general tone. Without knowing that much about world ODI cricket these days, I did wonder if we were being a bit overhyped before the tournament started. We could of course still win the thing although I doubt it rather more now.

robbo277 wrote:Probably not worth noting that West Indies have a hugely theoretical chance of qualification here...

West Indies beat India, Sri Lanka and Afghanistan to finish on 9 points
England lose to India and New Zealand to finish on 8 points
Bangladesh lose to India and beat Pakistan to finish on 9 points
Pakistan beat Afghanistan and lose to Bangladesh to finish on 9 points
Sri Lanka lose to West Indies and India to finish on a maximum of 8 points (South Africa game irrelevant)

None of those matches individually are too unlikely, but the chances of absolutely all of them falling into place is pretty remote for the West Indies.

Equally as remote is the chance of India not making the top 4. A loss here and they have 3 games left against teams scraping to get into that top 4. You'd have to say you can't see them dropping that many games, but at the moment they don't have the points on the board (because of the weird scheduling) so they're still mathematically in a fight for qualification here.

If India lost here, to England and Sri Lanka, for example, England and Sri Lanka could both finish on 12 points and leave India behind on 11 points with a win against Bangladesh. Another long shot, but it does add a bit to this game, especially if West Indies bat first and get some runs on the board.

West Indies, who’ve not won a game in this World Cup since May (!), can still qualify. This format is bad.

India eating up so many dot balls. 97 dots in the first 26 overs.

Now lost their third wicket. Could be trouble if Kohli goes in the next few overs.

Four down : Roach doing some damage...but still looking on for over 250 which seems to be the new 400

Couple of quick wickets after the drinks break might make things interesting...

Wow... what a missed stumping... twice! Dhoni was in another postcode. Lucky.

That is the worst stumping miss I have ever seen.

alfie wrote:Four down : Roach doing some damage...but still looking on for over 250 which seems to be the new 400

Couple of quick wickets after the drinks break might make things interesting...

West Indies would need to get Kohli and Dhoni very soon and then Pandya before he can cause too much damage to keep them sub 250. If they don't take a wicket soon we could be talking about 300.

Great figures by Roach, but he needs someone to back him up in the wickets column.

alfie wrote:That is the worst stumping miss I have ever seen.

Would've fancied myself to even stump him there!

As for India, surely Pant must come into consideration? I was shocked he was left out of the initial squad, but with Shankar and Jadhav clearly not being upto his level with the bat he must be given a shot on Sunday?

Kohli gone, Windies have a chance of keeping India below 250.

They may be the only unbeaten side left in the competition, but India certainly haven't batted with the level of confidence you'd expect from such a team, either in this game or the one against Afghanistan.

India need a big last ten to even hit 250.

250 might be plenty , of course , unless Brathwaite has another once in a season performance in him. Some pretty ordinary looking scores being defended in this event and India has the bowlers to test West Indies' rather inconsistent batting...

JDizzle wrote:

robbo277 wrote:Probably not worth noting that West Indies have a hugely theoretical chance of qualification here...

West Indies beat India, Sri Lanka and Afghanistan to finish on 9 points
England lose to India and New Zealand to finish on 8 points
Bangladesh lose to India and beat Pakistan to finish on 9 points
Pakistan beat Afghanistan and lose to Bangladesh to finish on 9 points
Sri Lanka lose to West Indies and India to finish on a maximum of 8 points (South Africa game irrelevant)

None of those matches individually are too unlikely, but the chances of absolutely all of them falling into place is pretty remote for the West Indies.

Equally as remote is the chance of India not making the top 4. A loss here and they have 3 games left against teams scraping to get into that top 4. You'd have to say you can't see them dropping that many games, but at the moment they don't have the points on the board (because of the weird scheduling) so they're still mathematically in a fight for qualification here.

If India lost here, to England and Sri Lanka, for example, England and Sri Lanka could both finish on 12 points and leave India behind on 11 points with a win against Bangladesh. Another long shot, but it does add a bit to this game, especially if West Indies bat first and get some runs on the board.

West Indies, who’ve not won a game in this World Cup since May (!), can still qualify. This format is bad.

Not sure that makes the format bad, just long. 

Most teams wouldve been out and global interest gone by now in previous formats And the rain wouldve had a much more decisive effect on progression.

What we are seeing is a quite incredible turn around in fortune for teams that look dead and buried and a slew of games going against form and common sense. West Indies looks utterly goosed and like they'd given up when half their attack were limping. bear in mind the West Indies were robbed of what looked like a win against SA, so if they somehow do pull off qualification its surely on merit of performance. 

Whats bad about that? Aside from the length of time taken.

West Indies bowling Brathwaite at the death.

Pal Joey wrote:

Gooseberry wrote:

robbo277 wrote:

KP_fan wrote:

robbo277 wrote:
There is a not insignificant chance that NZ will miss out on the semi-finals, .

Hope & love for your national sides can create more delusion than induced by "substance use"
Good luck everybody

More just pointing out possible permutations.

If I were taking drugs this early on a Thursday morning I'd probably be in a field in Somerset, not posting on a cricket forum.

I think he was making snide remarks about Hales, who's more likely being equally bitter and smugly satisfied in a gutter outside a Nottingham nightclub. Assuming hes not been arrested.

I wouldn't worry too much, Goose. Stokes is just a phone call away...

If only we had well behaved players like Warner eh! 


Without bothering to scroll back a few pages has anyone read Kimbers article on England vs left arm pace men. Much more telling than the "flat track bullies" theory (though that has limited merit too, along with a failure to cope with the pressure and having to carry Vince and Moeen).

TL/DR England averaged 20 runs better against right arm seamers than left armers at the world cup. This is nothing new.