RWC 2019 - Early odds...

Poll to see, early thoughts on who the "fans" favourite is to take the RWC2019.

Of course, teams are mainly, as yet, unknown, but it is interesting to see the initial thoughts and then compare them later when teams are known and warm up games have been played.

Who will England play if they win their group? I fancy their chances this year.

40/1 for Argentina is great value.

Collapse2005 wrote:Who will England play if they win their group? I fancy their chances this year.

40/1 for Argentina is great value.

England/France/Argentina are twinned with Wales/Australia/Fiji/Georgia. So if we win our group we'll play the runner up of that lot. Most likely Australia on rankings and form you'd expect.

I voted New Zealand. I hope it's not them, I'd love an early exit for them to remove that sense of inevitability about the knockout stages. I also have 1 loud Welsh mate so I hope it's not them either. I think the two of them would be my 19th and 20th favourite teams to win. Not sure who I'd prefer least.

Two of my favourite non-England Tier 1 teams are both in England's group in France and Argentina, so if England back up 2015 with a repeat performance then at least two of my teams will make the quarter-final (although the consolation would be negligible).

Would like to see Japan, Fiji and/or Georgia squeak into the quarter-finals. Like all those teams.

How on earth are we 5-1? You need consultancy at a world Cup and we ain't that unfortunately. Plus depends on the squad Eddie picks, still think he's going left field with a few choices. Can't see past new Zealand I'm afraid.

It’s going to be one of NZ, England, SA or Aus. Hopefully England. I think fans of some of the other nations are getting a bit carried away with themselves.

Good to see you on form this morning Cyril.

robbo277 wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:Who will England play if they win their group? I fancy their chances this year.

40/1 for Argentina is great value.

England/France/Argentina are twinned with Wales/Australia/Fiji/Georgia. So if we win our group we'll play the runner up of that lot. Most likely Australia on rankings and form you'd expect.

Argentina will be tough.

They usually are. They could have their best year ever this year. Many genuinely talented players in this crop.

For a team that's never made it past the last eight, Ireland have surprisingly low odds.

probably because the odds are from paddy power

Is there a fear Schmidt has checked out of Ireland? Sure he’s professional and all that but he’s pretty much checked out hasn’t he? The last 6N performance saw an alarming regression.

ebop wrote:Is there a fear Schmidt has checked out of Ireland? Sure he’s professional and all that but he’s pretty much checked out hasn’t he? The last 6N performance saw an alarming regression.

I wouldn’t under estimate Ireland, they had a poor performance against England and were outplayed in Cardiff by Wales but they showed plenty of improvement after their first game, I’m sure they’ll be just fine going into The RWC

ebop wrote:Is there a fear Schmidt has checked out of Ireland? Sure he’s professional and all that but he’s pretty much checked out hasn’t he? The last 6N performance saw an alarming regression.

He's too professional to do that. He'll be desperate to go out in a high.

The 6N performance was a combination of many things. Players mentally fatigued, new opposition tactics, hooding back moves and tactics for the world cup etc. That doesn't mean Ireland will improve.

The Great Aukster wrote:For a team that's never made it past the last eight, Ireland have surprisingly low odds.

Yeah. I wouldn't touch Ireland at that price. Argentina at 40/1 is interesting.

Cyril wrote:It’s going to be one of NZ, England, SA or Aus. Hopefully England. I think fans of some of the other nations are getting a bit carried away with themselves.

Hopefully England? You couldn’t beat Wales or Scotland and you still hope it’s England. And you said some fans of other nations are getting carried away....

Personally I see the first three as the order of favouritism.

For one theyve all won it before. Aus have had too many issues, had a poor SRugby showing, have a poor coach and will be without the blessed one, Pocock.

Their 10’s are all shot as well.

Dont think Wales performance in the 6N will be enough for the workd cup and i think we saw their best. We didnt of England or Ireland.

The prices on Wales and Ireland are too short - I suggest 8/1 for both
The prices on France and Argentina are too long - I suggest 25/1 for France and 22/1 for Argentina

Only NZ, SA, Australia, England, Ireland, Wales and France have any chance of winning it and
in the case of France in particular that is remote  

The rest have zero chance of winning it

I do think Argentina can win it

Taylorman wrote:Personally I see the first three as the order of favouritism.

For one theyve all won it before. Aus have had too many issues, had a poor SRugby showing, have a poor coach and will be without the blessed one, Pocock.

Their 10’s are all shot as well.

Dont think Wales performance in the 6N will be enough for the workd cup and i think we saw their best. We didnt of England or Ireland.

I hope we haven’t seen the best of Wales, they seem to be improving nicely over the last few seasons. I don’t think they are playing at their best. Time in camp this summer will have a positive effect. Gatland gets good results out of his squad when he has access to them for a decent length of time.

Its a tricky one because thats obviously solely off the back of the Jaguares Super Rugby run. (6 months ago you were dismissing Argie) and they havent played since.

Big task this week for them.

To clarify not listing Argentina as possible winners was a mistake.

Like France slim, but possible

Argentina and France are in a similar boat. Both have buckets full of talented players but both have underperformed internationally for the last few seasons. But you wouldn’t discount either of them pulling it together and making a semi final.

Both have “tournament pedigree” for want of a better term. France were poor in 2015 but finalists in 2011 with little form coming into it and Argentina put Ireland to the sword in 2015 to make the semis.

At least one of them will make it out the pool and although I wouldn’t back either against Wales or Australia in a 3 match series they could both be dangerous in a one off knockout.

robbo277 wrote:Argentina and France are in a similar boat. Both have buckets full of talented players but both have underperformed internationally for the last few seasons. But you wouldn’t discount either of them pulling it together and making a semi final.

Both have “tournament pedigree” for want of a better term. France were poor in 2015 but finalists in 2011 with little form coming into it and Argentina put Ireland to the sword in 2015 to make the semis.

At least one of them will make it out the pool and although I wouldn’t back either against Wales or Australia in a 3 match series they could both be dangerous in a one off knockout.

Yes thats how I see it, upset material definitely but not likely to carry three pressure knockouts in a row. NZers though never write France off. Theyve freaked us out far too many times...

Taylorman wrote:

robbo277 wrote:Argentina and France are in a similar boat. Both have buckets full of talented players but both have underperformed internationally for the last few seasons. But you wouldn’t discount either of them pulling it together and making a semi final.

Both have “tournament pedigree” for want of a better term. France were poor in 2015 but finalists in 2011 with little form coming into it and Argentina put Ireland to the sword in 2015 to make the semis.

At least one of them will make it out the pool and although I wouldn’t back either against Wales or Australia in a 3 match series they could both be dangerous in a one off knockout.

Yes thats how I see it, upset material definitely but not likely to carry three pressure knockouts in a row. NZers though never write France off. Theyve freaked us out far too many times...

I wouldn’t write anyone off, this should be a great RWC, we have never seen so many teams so closely matched.

robbo277 wrote:Argentina and France are in a similar boat. Both have buckets full of talented players but both have underperformed internationally for the last few seasons. But you wouldn’t discount either of them pulling it together and making a semi final.

Both have “tournament pedigree” for want of a better term. France were poor in 2015 but finalists in 2011 with little form coming into it and Argentina put Ireland to the sword in 2015 to make the semis.

At least one of them will make it out the pool and although I wouldn’t back either against Wales or Australia in a 3 match series they could both be dangerous in a one off knockout.

Every World Cup there are a few teams that surprise the fans, Argentina being a prime example. Before 2007 they were no hopers at every RWC and the reason they made it to a semi final was because they had a fantastic group of players come through at the same time. They have managed to keep and expand that pool further over the last decade.

That is no different to Wales in 87 or 2011, the intervening years have seen wales mainly beat Argentina.

So why would you consider France or Argentina to have pedigree and not Wales or Ireland

maestegmafia wrote:

robbo277 wrote:Argentina and France are in a similar boat. Both have buckets full of talented players but both have underperformed internationally for the last few seasons. But you wouldn’t discount either of them pulling it together and making a semi final.

Both have “tournament pedigree” for want of a better term. France were poor in 2015 but finalists in 2011 with little form coming into it and Argentina put Ireland to the sword in 2015 to make the semis.

At least one of them will make it out the pool and although I wouldn’t back either against Wales or Australia in a 3 match series they could both be dangerous in a one off knockout.

Every World Cup there are a few teams that surprise the fans, Argentina being a prime example. Before 2007 they were no hopers at every RWC and the reason they made it to a semi final was because they had a fantastic group of players come through at the same time. They have managed to keep and expand that pool further over the last decade.

That is no different to Wales in 87 or 2011, the intervening years have seen wales mainly beat Argentina.

So why would you consider France or Argentina to have pedigree and not Wales or Ireland

I did say it was for want of a better term, and I've perhaps used the wrong term.

Firstly, I'm only talking about World Cups and further to that I can only talk for my experience so I'm only talking about World Cups this millennium, as I don't really remember the 1999 World Cup as a tournament and definitely not anyone's form leading up to it.

Secondly, I think it's possibly not tournament pedigree, and maybe in my hurry to post before my train arrived last night I didn't consider the term well enough. But it's more that ability to defy pre-tournament expectations and predictions.

In 2007, Argentina without top tier international rugby topped a group with two Six Nations teams - no-one saw that coming. And again in 2015, although they were expected to make it out the pool, they wouldn't have been favourites against double Six Nations winners and then not only beat them, but thrashed them really.

France were disappointing in 2015, going largely with the form book. They lost convincingly to Ireland and New Zealand, only a win against Italy prevented their campaign being an absolute disaster. But the fear of them doing the unexpected comes from 2007 and 2011. In 2007 they came second in their pool so had to face the All Blacks and gave up home field advantage - and beat them. In 2011, they looked atrocious in the pools and lost twice, only making it through because Tonga lost to Canada earlier in the tournament on a 5-day turnaround. Then they made the final.

Wales looked weak going into the 2007 World Cup and didn't make it out the pool. But since Gatland came in they've been a better team and have had two decent finishes in World Cups since. I'd say they have slightly exceeded expectations in terms of their finishes, but not in terms of the results themselves. E.g. across the two World Cups they have beaten England, Ireland, Fiji (twice), Samoa, Namibia and Uruguay and lost to France, South Africa (twice) and Australia (twice). It's not the worst record across these years (see: England's) and they've won some key games at key times (Ireland in 2011 and England in 2015), but I wouldn't say that any of those results were particularly against the form book over the last 8 years.

Yoda wrote:How on earth are we 5-1? You need consultancy at a world Cup and we ain't that unfortunately. Plus depends on the squad Eddie picks, still think he's going left field with a few choices. Can't see past new Zealand I'm afraid.

I can see England going on a run if they dont slip up against Argentina. History says they wont. A quarter v Australia should be easy pickings for England. Wales would be tough.

Wales' problem is they just cant beat the SH sides regularly enough.

Cyril wrote:It’s going to be one of NZ, England, SA or Aus. Hopefully England. I think fans of some of the other nations are getting a bit carried away with themselves.

Exactly, England could teach us all a thing or two about that emotion over the years

Collapse2005 wrote:Wales' problem is they just cant beat the SH sides regularly enough.

Well in World cups thats all the 6Ns problem. I get the last 6N side to beat a RC side is Ireland over Aus in 2011, 12 matches ago. And it was only three more from 14 between then and the final in 03. 4 wins from 26. Does include 2 italy losses.

Youd probably think there will be some this year.

Assuming Italy dont beat SA nor NZ, in pool play theres only three match ups...Eng and France vs Argie, and Wales vs Aus.

Youd guess there should be two there.

Knockouts could bring the same as 2015...NH vs SH in each quarter. Almost certain for both pool A and B quarters.

And likely at least one of C and D.

Cant seem to avoid that NH v SH thing again.

I have a feeling that Scotland could well be the team to cause a few surprises this RWC. They are well under the radar but as any England fan can attest they have the ability to do really well in big games away from home against teams ranked higher.

Well I hope not maes because if its over a SH side that means its likely to be us

Early odds must be about the most useless numbers in the Universe.

Teams getting numbers thrown at them as players lie in bed or steal deck chairs from German towels?

Warm ups will inevitably churn up all the numbers again. Wharrha waste of time.

As much as it pains me to say it I think it will be a 2 horse race between NZ and England.

The thing that throws the spanner in the works is the Q/Fs

Traditionally you could say that the group toppers would be:

NZ, Eng, SA, Oz

playing against the runners up of:

Sco, Ire, Wales, Fra (with Arg often making it)

This year though, I dont think anyone can hand on heart honestly say that they will top their group. Even NZ can't assume top spot.

Ire and Scotland can't even assume they will get out the group with Japan and Samoa in there as potential banana skins. Scotland could even beat Ireland but then not top the group if Japan or Samoa take them when playing each other.

This unpredicatablity then throws the later stages up in the air.

Logically though, still can't see passed the blackness.

rodders wrote:As much as it pains me to say it I think it will be a 2 horse race between NZ and England.

I can see England making the final too probably v NZ also.

I think Ireland will make the semis.

Alright, who are they two jokers that voted for Scotland?

Collapse2005 wrote:

rodders wrote:As much as it pains me to say it I think it will be a 2 horse race between NZ and England.

I can see England making the final too probably v NZ also.

I think Ireland will make the semis.

I would hope Wales could make the semifinals, to get to the final would be a dream.

I think there will be some tough matches before the knock out stages though.

Well there is no doubt Wales are good enough. Their challenge is a terrible record v the SH sides. Irelands challenge is a poor record in 1/4 finals.

Bookies odds are rarely the way the bookie sees the game panning out, they are odds designed to ensure that whoever wins it's always the bookie. England are 5/1 because they are the most populous country and more people have backed them. It doesn't really reflect there actual chances.

Same can be said of NZ, the NH sides are much closer now than they have been in in recent years, the are a mile away from being neigh on evens to win it on form.

New Zealand will win, I want Ireland to win, but I'd love it, just love it if Argentina did.

Collapse2005 wrote:Well there is no doubt Wales are good enough. Their challenge is a terrible record v the SH sides. Irelands challenge is a poor record in 1/4 finals.

Yes but there have been improvements four wins in a row vs SA and beat the Aussies last time after many narrow loses gives us hope anyway. Despite that I think SA will be a lot better this year, maybe not so for the Aussie but they still have some cracking players

It’s going to be tough for everyone the competition is very close.

maestegmafia wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:Well there is no doubt Wales are good enough. Their challenge is a terrible record v the SH sides. Irelands challenge is a poor record in 1/4 finals.

Yes but there have been improvements four wins in a row vs SA and beat the Aussies last time after many narrow loses gives us hope anyway.  Despite that I think SA will be a lot better this year, maybe not so for the Aussie but they still have some cracking players

It’s going to be tough for everyone the competition is very close.

Yes there have you are right but you could easily counter argue that one 1 point scrappy win at home v Australia in the last 10 or so games isnt enough. Nor is zero wins v NZ nor the odd win v SA. Not trying to diminish the quality of this Welsh side but the must do better v SH teams.

Collapse2005 wrote:Yes there have you are right but you could easily counter argue that one 1 point scrappy win at home v Australia in the last 10 or so games isnt enough. Nor is zero wins v NZ nor the odd win v SA. Not trying to diminish the quality of this Welsh side but the must do better v SH teams.

Yeah, thanks for letting us know.

But going by your logic, you will need to be better at beating the 6N sides, you have only beaten Wales twice in our last seven meetings, and only beaten England three times in your last seven meetings.

Not trying to diminish the quality of this Irish side but the must do better v 6N teams.

LordDowlais wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:Yes there have you are right but you could easily counter argue that one 1 point scrappy win at home v Australia in the last 10 or so games isnt enough. Nor is zero wins v NZ nor the odd win v SA. Not trying to diminish the quality of this Welsh side but the must do better v SH teams.

Yeah, thanks for letting us know.

But going by your logic, you will need to be better at beating the 6N sides, you have only beaten Wales twice in our last seven meetings, and only beaten England three times in your last seven meetings.  

Not trying to diminish the quality of this Irish side but the must do better v 6N teams.

No as mentioned above Ireland's biggest challenge is that they havent made it through the quarters yet.

The comparison you use makes very little sense given that Ireland have the second highest win rate in the 6 nations after England and won a slam as recent as last year. You didnt really think that one through did you?

Collapse2005 wrote:The comparison you use makes very little sense given that Ireland have the second highest win rate in the 6 nations after England and won a slam as recent as last year. You didnt really think that one through did you?

Two wins in seven against Wales home and away would suggest otherwise.

LordDowlais wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:The comparison you use makes very little sense given that Ireland have the second highest win rate in the 6 nations after England and won a slam as recent as last year. You didnt really think that one through did you?

Two wins in seven against Wales home and away would suggest otherwise.

Its more than zero wins v NZ in 29 games or one 1 point win v Australia in 14 games. Like I said you do not appear to have thought your comparison through.

You also referenced Ireland's record v six nations sides using the record v Wales as an example which in itself is a weak enough argument when Ireland's overall record in the 6n is solid enough while Wales' overall record v SH sides is weak. There are many way to pick apart your comparison, they all suggest you didn't think before you typed.

Finally for Ireland to reach its goal of a semi final it will not have to face Wales at all so the record v Wales is pretty close to being irrelevant.

Wales record v SA lately is quite good to be fair.

Hey, it's not my theory, it's yours.

You want to base one off games on the history of them being played.

You want to use New Zealand as a barometer, then fine, you have beaten them once more than us, in our entire history.

For the record, I think if Wales can avoid New Zealand, we have better chance than Ireland of winning the World cup.

The trouble for Ireland is, they tend to struggle against Wales these days, and you always bottle it in the knock out stages of the world cup.

LordDowlais wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:Yes there have you are right but you could easily counter argue that one 1 point scrappy win at home v Australia in the last 10 or so games isnt enough. Nor is zero wins v NZ nor the odd win v SA. Not trying to diminish the quality of this Welsh side but the must do better v SH teams.

Yeah, thanks for letting us know.

But going by your logic, you will need to be better at beating the 6N sides, you have only beaten Wales twice in our last seven meetings, and only beaten England three times in your last seven meetings.  

Not trying to diminish the quality of this Irish side but the must do better v 6N teams.

But sure we've beaten Wales 4 times in the last 9 meetings.  One draw.  eQuality

But sure since the Millennium, we've beaten Wales 13 times in the last 24 meetings. 3 games up.

But sure we've beaten England 3 times in the last 6 meetings. Equality.

But sure we beat England twice in the last 3 meetings.

Numbers is fun when you're selective.