The Ashes - official thread

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

First topic message reminder :

Seeing as this starts next week, I'll kick it off - the Aussies have selected their 17 man squad


Australia's Ashes squad: Tim Paine (c), Cameron Bancroft, Pat Cummins, Marcus Harris, Josh Hazlewood, Travis Head, Usman Khawaja, Marnus Labuschagne, Nathan Lyon, Mitchell Marsh, Michael Neser, James Pattinson, Peter Siddle, Steven Smith, Mitchell Starc, Matthew Wade, David Warner.

Main takeaway there is no specialist spinner selected behind Lyon, with Neser included suggests they don't anticipate many, if any, spinning wickets...

[Duty281]

Smith apparently averages 35 against left-arm orthodox spin, which may be a good argument for Leach. England seem pretty clueless otherwise about how to get Smith out.

Oooh, run-out chance against Head missed. Still another hour left tonight.

[alfie]

This run rate still above four. A little surprising as neither team ever scored at that rate for long in their first innings...and you'd have thought batting would be getting harder not easier...
Moeen in particular is conceding a steady flow of runs : will be fine if he can bag a couple of wickets ; but otherwise it is putting a bit of pressure back on the other bowlers.
Stokes very nearly has Smith lbw with one that nips back...just too high so lucky they didn't waste a review. Smith seems to get a lot of close lbw calls that are just missing. Doesn't seem fair that so good a player should also enjoy the luck of the close calls too

England need a wicket from somewhere. Can cap'n Joe pull a rabbit from his hat ?

[CaledonianCraig]

That will be it for the day. Bad light stops play with Australia 124 for 3 leading by 34. Nicely poised but will no Anderson prove the deciding factor?

[Duty281]

"I wanna bowl some seam."
"No, Joe, only spin."
"Alright, Aleem, I'll get Denly to bowl."
"No, Joe, no spin, either. We're going off."

Don't think Australia will be too disappointed! We're in the same position as we were at the start of today - the game excellently balanced and could go either way after another enthralling day.

If Australia can add another 140 or more on a pitch taking sharp turn and the occasional low bounce, they'll be favourites. That will only take them a session and a bit if England's lack of control continues.

Overall, it's England v Steve Smith again and there only looks like being one winner in that battle.

[sirfredperry]

Good Test. Very disappointed that England collapsed this morning but pleased that from 300-8 they eeked out a 90-run lead.

England just have to win this Test as I cannot see them winning at Lord's where Starc will probably be back. As it is, it could well be 2-0 to Australia after Lord's unless Smith goes early.

Smith's Test average over the last few years is just ridiculous. He's already an all-time Aussie great and, at 30, he may get even better. A sobering thought.

[Nathaniel Jacobs]

This chap Steven Smith is real pain in the rear ended...All joking aside if Australia didn’t have Smith this game would be already England’s. Anything above 170 could be tricky.

On a tangent you’ve got to wonder how Harris and Burns feel about missing out. Warner looked clueless in both innings and Bancroft was worst that Warner. Harris spent all winter getting roughened up by the Indians and Burns got a 100 in his last test. Bizarre.

[guildfordbat]

"I wanna bowl some seam."
"No, Joe, only spin."
"Alright, Aleem, I'll get Denly to bowl."
"No, Joe, no spin, either. We're going off."

Don't think Australia will be too disappointed! We're in the same position as we were at the start of today - the game excellently balanced and could go either way after another enthralling day.

If Australia can add another 140 or more on a pitch taking sharp turn and the occasional low bounce, they'll be favourites. That will only take them a session and a bit if England's lack of control continues.

Overall, it's England v Steve Smith again and there only looks like being one winner in that battle.

Oh yes and Carlos has to wait until tomorrow for moving day.

[VTR]

I'd be confident if we had Anderson. Need to blast a few out early as don't fancy chasing many at all on this vs Lyon. I suppose the draw is coming into the equation as Australia won't be too generous with their declaration if they do get away from England

[KP_fan]

have been too busy to work to watch, and only followed so far on CI...

-My money ( literally 50 bucks) are on Aus to win....that I had placed when they won the toss and decided to bat first....and I think at 3.5 times return it might prove a good bet.

Toss is a huge factor in tests between top sides these days unless one of them is blown away and/ or collapses

-Aus almost did collapse, multiple times at 30-3, 112-7;120-8 but got away unbelievable to 284

-Eng needed to get 100 runs lead to be at par to offset the factor of batting 4th......and 170 runs to shut Aus out completely
Eng felt slightly short of par....and 10 runs might be the margin of defeat in this game....in the narrowest scenario.

-Now Aus had to crash a second time for Eng to have it easy....and / but from 20-2 they have fought and escaped to 125ish for 3.

I see Aus with their depth will scrap and finish between 250-300.....and will bowl Eng out to a narrow ( less than 20 runs) to medium sized ( 50 odd runs) defeat

Off course Eng could still bowl them out for 200 win comfortably.....but the probability of that happening is low...because new ball has been seen off....next ball is due after 50 overs and although pitch may have spin....Eng has only a batting all-rounder spinner.


--Eng would have their selections to blame should they lose.
In the past they often played 6 bowlers ( and sometimes 7).......this game they had only 5
and out of 5 were only 3 specialist bowlers
and 2 batting all-rounders...

and of the 3 specialist bowlers one was Anderson who i had read was going to miss the test because of an ankle injury and was surprised to see him in the 11

-Dunno who smoked what to pick such a fragile cum relatively less potent bowling combination.

Given Anderson's fragility they should have had Curran in for one batsman......knowing that he can score runs too.....so they won't  lose too much on batting.

And if they had to play only one spinner it aught to be the SLA who showed he can score some useful runs too.

--There will be twists and turns and thrills and spills and chills but Aus will more or less replicate their first inning score and then win by about 30 to 40 runs....is my neck-put-out-prediction

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

After saying today was the crucial day in this test yesterday...I’m going to say tomorrow is!

England have a real opportunity here to bat themselves into a position of great strength in this game, if we can get ourselves into a lead of 100 plus tomorrow. Would be great if Bairstow can refind the test form of 2016 for one day...

Also, batting some time and a day has given Broad, Woakes and Anderson a day with their feet up, and legs resting. The longer we bat, the more time the physios have to work on Jimmy...every little may help.

Finally, if england can get that lead, and are all out for say 420 towards tea tomorrow it does bring the draw into the game. A bit of rain is forecast for Sunday/Monday, which may help take an Aussie win out of the equation if we can get a decent sized lead...I know we’d like a win, but considering we lost our best bowler a half hour into the game getting away with a draw wouldn’t be a dreadful result in my book

After saying today, and Friday was the crucial days of this test...turns out it’s tomorrow!

Missed today’s play due to playing (45 over game, we batted and got 255-5 off 45, they ended 246-8 - close one!) - what’s the general consensus? England do ok? Game in the balance?

[Duty281]

After saying today was the crucial day in this test yesterday...I’m going to say tomorrow is!

England have a real opportunity here to bat themselves into a position of great strength in this game, if we can get ourselves into a lead of 100 plus tomorrow. Would be great if Bairstow can refind the test form of 2016 for one day...

Also, batting some time and a day has given Broad, Woakes and Anderson a day with their feet up, and legs resting. The longer we bat, the more time the physios have to work on Jimmy...every little may help.

Finally, if england can get that lead, and are all out for say 420 towards tea tomorrow it does bring the draw into the game. A bit of rain is forecast for Sunday/Monday, which may help take an Aussie win out of the equation if we can get a decent sized lead...I know we’d like a win, but considering we lost our best bowler a half hour into the game getting away with a draw wouldn’t be a dreadful result in my book

After saying today, and Friday was the crucial days of this test...turns out it’s tomorrow!

Missed today’s play due to playing (45 over game, we batted and got 255-5 off 45, they ended 246-8 - close one!) - what’s the general consensus? England do ok? Game in the balance?

England did alright, but they could be better placed. Broad and Woakes rescued England from 300/8 to post a good lead. Then England started brilliantly with the ball before fading away (Anderson unable to bowl, unsurprisingly).

Game very much in the balance and the outcome of the test seems to depend on how long Smith will bat, and how well will Lyon bowl on a pitch with sharp turn.

[Steffan]

First test to England without question. Very disappointed with Australia so far

They don't really seem to be producing the quality of players that I remember when I first started watching the Ashes in the 1993

Or is that just me with nostalgia?

[alfie]

Reckon the third day basically brought Australia back into the match after being one bad session away from the point of no return.

Keeping the England lead under 100 was their first success...I thought they stuck to their bowling task admirably ; and if they'd be slightly disappointed Broad and Woakes got away somewhat that really only offset the run of four wickets taken earlier - a probably unexpected event given the solid start to the day England had enjoyed before Stokes got out.

Not too surprising a couple of early wickets went down : if England could have struck again then who knows what would have happened ? The chance that went down off Moeen immediately after Bancroft was out might be quite significant as Khawaja and Smith were able to then wipe off most of the deficit rather quickly - and Head has continued the good work. Runs have come a lot quicker than England wanted , primarily because Moeen hasn't given them any control. And with Smith looking very busy they really missed Anderson.

Effectively 34/3 so their situation remains perilous : a couple of early wickets in the morning would see them facing a lot of pressure to get the lead up to the 180 plus that would give them a realistic chance of winning . But with Smith seeming impregnable , any sort of decent start tomorrow and England will need to find some magic - as the pitch is no longer giving the seamers much help and they don't have a Lyon in their pack.

What can England do about Smith ? They've tried a lot of "plans" but to no result ; and were looking a bit desperate as the session wore on. He does seem to rattle them - probably more so than other teams for some reason. I'd recommend a bit more basic approach : hit top of off / mixed with wider offside stuff. Forget about targeting his stumps for lbw , as though he looks vulnerable , in practice he just picks you off to leg. Some cover at mid wicket to stop those constant easy singles wouldn't go amiss... In truth he's a hard man to stop !

Thought Stokes bowled well. Need him and the two main seamers to do a job in the morning. Will see how the pitch plays as the day goes ( and hope the weather doesn't have too much say) but at the moment I'd say England wouldn't be out of it chasing even 200. They wouldn't want much more though ; and as we've already seen they remain prone to collapse so I imagine all results will remain "live" for a while yet. Good game of cricket

[Gooseberry]

After saying today was the crucial day in this test yesterday...I’m going to say tomorrow is!

England have a real opportunity here to bat themselves into a position of great strength in this game, if we can get ourselves into a lead of 100 plus tomorrow. Would be great if Bairstow can refind the test form of 2016 for one day...

Also, batting some time and a day has given Broad, Woakes and Anderson a day with their feet up, and legs resting. The longer we bat, the more time the physios have to work on Jimmy...every little may help.

Finally, if england can get that lead, and are all out for say 420 towards tea tomorrow it does bring the draw into the game. A bit of rain is forecast for Sunday/Monday, which may help take an Aussie win out of the equation if we can get a decent sized lead...I know we’d like a win, but considering we lost our best bowler a half hour into the game getting away with a draw wouldn’t be a dreadful result in my book

After saying today, and Friday was the crucial days of this test...turns out it’s tomorrow!

Missed today’s play due to playing (45 over game, we batted and got 255-5 off 45, they ended 246-8 - close one!) - what’s the general consensus? England do ok? Game in the balance?

Its in the balance still but England have the lead and Aus have lost 3 senior bats. England surely happier with the position.

Smith though. Jesus

[No name Bertie]

Day Four and the First Test is still finely balanced with England with the advantage in terms of scoreline and Australia with the advantage of having England batting last on what is perhaps becoming a more bowler friendly pitch.

[CaledonianCraig]

Today could be the pivotal day in this test match. At present it could top either way.

Here is today's road map:-

Road Map:

[guildfordbat]

...

Effectively 34/3 so their situation remains perilous : a couple of early wickets in the morning would see them facing a lot of pressure to get the lead up to the 180 plus that would give them a realistic chance of winning . But with Smith seeming impregnable , any sort of decent start tomorrow and England will need to find some magic - as the pitch is no longer giving the seamers much help and they don't have a Lyon in their pack.

...

[dummy_half]

I would say that England have never been behind in the match, but have on a couple of occasions let dominant positions slip.

You'd still favour England against an opponent at effectively 34-3 - a couple of wickets (especially Smith, which I think will only occur retired hurt hit by an asteroid) and a position of say 60-5, and you're in to a lower middle order that didn't fire in the first innings. Surely the tail can't do the same job twice in a row...

I think the chances are about 2/1 in England's favour, although a draw is becoming increasingly likely especially if some more time is lost to inclement weather. I can't see the Aussies making a 'sporting' declaration if their batting goes well today given this is the first test and they've worked so hard to stay in the game

[No name Bertie]

Given the weather forecast - I think the draw is the most likely outcome.  

Australia will just try to make the match safe first by batting sensibly and ensuring they get to lunch and then tea without losing too many more wickets.  

England need to produce some bowling magic before lunch and then shortly after lunch to try to set up an opportunity for a win.

[VTR]

Two early wickets, especially if one of those is Smith, England are right on top. Are they good enough to get those outside of an inspired Broad burst? I'm not so sure.

After comparing his batting to Tufnell yesterday (harsh I know, on Mr Tufnell), I'm going to say Moeen's bowling has been about as good as Ashes legend Simon Kerrigan. Really need the Moeen from last year or so to turn up today!

[Duty281]

The game is essentially down to Steve Smith v England. If England get him out in the opening 30 minutes today, they'll fancy routing the rest of the batting order and bowling Australia out for below a lead of 150, which should win them the game. Win it today, in fact!

But if Smith gets set again and gets through the initially tricky opening period, it's likely Australia will get a lead of above 200, which should be match-winning. The main problem for England is, of course, they have no clue how to get Smith out or, indeed, how to stop him scoring!

On the whole, England bowled poorly yesterday with a lack of discipline, especially Moeen who's having a rotten game and will likely be dropped for Leach if he persists in the same manner. If England lack the same control today, Australia's lead could be 200, or even as much as 250, by tea time.

I can't see a draw happening. There's only a low chance of rain through today and tomorrow. Even if Australia wanted to, they're unlikely to bat through all of today due to the difficulties of the pitch and I doubt the declaration question will come up at any point. We likely only need another 150 overs of play, maximum, to yield a result.

[Gooseberry]

I don't know which forecast you're looking at Bertie but there's only low chances of rain and we shouldn't loose many overs. 2 days is plenty enough time to complete the game with only 17 wickets remainin, both sides being brittle and helpful bowling conditions.

Aus absolutely will be focused on staying in and scoring what they can today. It's highly unlikely they will survive till close but even if they do it won't be with enough of lead to be completely safe from a miracle chase, and with enough time on Monday to bowl England out even if a couple of hours are lost to rain.

[guildfordbat]

I would say that England have never been behind in the match, but have on a couple of occasions let dominant positions slip.

You'd still favour England against an opponent at effectively 34-3 - a couple of wickets (especially Smith, which I think will only occur retired hurt hit by an asteroid) and a position of say 60-5, and you're in to a lower middle order that didn't fire in the first innings. Surely the tail can't do the same job twice in a row...

I think the chances are about 2/1 in England's favour, although a draw is becoming increasingly likely especially if some more time is lost to inclement weather. I can't see the Aussies making a 'sporting' declaration if their batting goes well today given this is the first test and they've worked so hard to stay in the game

Hi Dummy - very much agree. I don't see any chance of a 'sporting' declaration and nor should there be. Australia have battled bl**dy hard as you suggest and won't want to give us any extra chance to take a lead in the series. After the WC, they'll also be conscious of what Roy and a few others can do if they hit top gear.

That said, this continues to be an intriguing test and as part of its fascination so difficult to call. For all Smith's unquestioned brilliance, it will still only take one ball to get him back in the hutch. Can someone deliver it or a fielder make it happen early on? If so and the other Aussie batters then fold fairly quickly as thought likely, we could be 1-0 up around tea time. The flip side of that - and the worst possible position for England - is that Smith will bat long and hard with others keeping him company requiring Burns and Roy to either bat for 10 minutes tonight or go out to field tomorrow morning still wondering when they will be padding up.

All assuming the Brummie weather behaves.

Righty ho, got to get the grass cut here now by 11 o'clock.

[Soul Requiem]

Part of the problem is the amount of different plans they've tried and how quickly they ditch them and move onto another one, they did the same last year with Kohli; Root has a habit of trying to be too clever with certain batsmen. The best two captains of recent years were Vaughan and Hussain who would both have plans for every batsmen but would stick with them for a prolonged period of time.

[CaledonianCraig]

For England today the key is to stay patient. There may be spells when nothing happens. They also need to look to throttle the scoring rate. Stokes managed it late on yesterday with Root and we saw one or two edgy shots - that is the key.

Anderson will not bowl in this innings and it looks odds on he is ruled out of Lords and I'd say it is most likely he is out of the series. Now all attention will turn to Joffra Archer.

[Duty281]

Moeen starts with a scuttler and then a head-high lob. Five off the over. Oh dear.

[Soul Requiem]

Umpires call really is pointless.

[Duty281]

False shot from Smith, but no matter. He's up to 200 runs and counting in the test - all time record in an Ashes series is 974 from Don Bradman 89 years ago.

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/records/batting/most_runs_series.html?id=1;type=trophy

[VTR]

Well as feared, Moeen Kerrigan has turned up today!

[KP_fan]

Head has gone relatively unnoticed & not talked about.....played well...looked organized even when Ind were visiting.
Have been watching today and pitch is scuffed / up and down and there is enuf misbehavior even for Moeen who doesn't ripppp it

Eng missing a really fast bowler to extract reverse which should be available in these conditions

[Duty281]

Yeah, Head's batted well. Needed some luck to survive the LBW shout, but on the whole he's played Broad well. He's left the ball judiciously and punished the odd bad ball that's come along.

Australia have seen off Broad's initial opening burst and added well to the lead. Root needs some magic from Woakes and/or Stokes. WinViz has Australia at 28% but that looks a total nonsense.

Another nonsense is both sides trying to get the ball changed at nearly every opportunity. Needs to be a curb on that sort of behaviour, rather than slowing the game down.

[Soul Requiem]

The ball lasts for 80 overs or more and then gets changed, that's it as far as i'm concerned.

[alfie]

Missed the first half hour...but I see nothing has happened. So I'd suggest Australia have probably just become marginal favourites as you'd think the batsmen have weathered the hardest part...

Of course they could collapse once a wicket falls ; but from what I've read just now about Moeen it seems the supposed "4th day weapon" is out of firm and confidence ? Where's the wicket coming from ?

Not quite time to call for a miracle , perhaps. But need a touch of magic , no ?

[KP_fan]

Eng's bowlers need to bowl within the stumps...this is nit a pitch to bowl in the corridor and invoke a nick.
Bowl "in the stumps" and sooner one will keep low and get you an lBW or bowled

[Soul Requiem]

Eng's bowlers need to bowl within the stumps...this is nit a pitch to bowl in the corridor and invoke a nick.
Bowl "in the stumps" and sooner one will keep low and get you an lBW or bowled

Might work against Head but Smith doesn't tend to get bowled or caught in front.

[alfie]

Part of the problem is the amount of different plans they've tried and how quickly they ditch them and move onto another one, they did the same last year with Kohli; Root has a habit of trying to be too clever with certain batsmen. The best two captains of recent years were Vaughan and Hussain who would both have plans for every batsmen but would stick with them for a prolonged period of time.

I'd agree with this. I understand you want to try things against a batsman who has a superb record against you ; but we've seen these funky plans fail often enough you'd think going back to basics might be a better % play.

Moeen is bowling rubbish , I'm afraid. Bowling him to Smith is just inviting slaughter. Get him off and hope to heaven someone else can get a break because otherwise this is going south fast...

[Duty281]

Moeen has to be dropped for Leach for the next test. He's such a fickle player is Moeen, and you can't play him and expect any positive return when he's in this mindset. A return of 1/71 at nearly 4.5 an over is embarrassing on this wicket.

Denly ahead of Woakes...that's interesting.

[alfie]

Moeen would be fine if Smith wasnt in. He scrambles his brain. I'm surprised England started with him today : expected pace both ends first up.
If they ever get a break he still has a part to play. But honestly , batting has looked easy since I've switched on today. England seem to be waiting for a mistake...49 runs in this first hour means they're on course for a lead of well over 200.

Why hasn't Woakes bowled yet ???

[Duty281]

52/0 so far this morning at the mini-interval. Bar Broad's opening 2-3 overs, it's been plain sailing for Head and Smith. Enough to assert Australia as firm favourites again. Looking inevitable at this point that the lead will exceed 200 - England just look clueless.

Weather forecast clearing up for today and tomorrow, so looks almost certain we'll get a positive result.

[guildfordbat]

Yeah, I was just about to post about my failure to understand why Woakes hasn't bowled.

Moeen was poor this morning and now Denly having a go. Denly's 4 Championship wickets this season have come from 72 overs and cost 46 each. Doesn't mean he won't produce something today but it hardly encourages me! Smith is surely too astute to lose concentration against such a part-timer.

[alfie]

Saw a " winviz" a short while back showing 52% England 28% Australia...what were they on ?
May have changed : I'd reckon right now the reverse would be closer to the truth.

Of course a couple of quick wickets could change things. But I don't like the England body language. Root especially.

Denly at least is different. May not sustain it ; but so far looks likelier than Moeen...

[KP_fan]

I am a Moeen fan...because to me he epitomizes a gritty cricketer who often punches above his weight both with bat and ball ( and that's why he is in my tipping list)

However I have also noticed and stated that he does well with ball on pitches where his lead seamers are ding well......and his wickets are more due to batters going after him with release shots.

He rarely can set the game with his bowling even in helpful conditions of the subcontinent.

[Duty281]

Saw a  " winviz" a short while back showing 52% England 28% Australia...what were they on ?
May have changed : I'd reckon right now the reverse would be closer to the truth.

Of course a couple of quick wickets could change things. But I don't like the England body language. Root especially.

Denly at least is different. May not sustain it ; but so far looks likelier than Moeen...

They've now got it as: England 41%; Australia 32%; draw 27%. Still seems very off to me. Draw is negligible. And a few more hours of batting and England's chance will be the same.

[KP_fan]

Eng's bowlers need to bowl within the stumps...this is nit a pitch to bowl in the corridor and invoke a nick.
Bowl "in the stumps" and sooner one will keep low and get you an lBW or bowled

Might work against Head but Smith doesn't tend to get bowled or caught in front.

even the best in the world can do little against natural up and down movement
that's the bets way to challenge Smith now....bowl 20 balls at him within the stumps line......and have 2 mid wkts, mid-on, mid-off and cover to not let him get singles

[king_carlos]

The game is on a knife edge here. It's fascinating viewing.

One quick wicket and England will fancy their chances bowling at Wade and Paine.

Smith is the difference between these teams in this match. Get him out and England are on top. It doesn't look likely though!

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

Seems the loss of Anderson is just too much to overcome - which is not really surprising, he is our best bowler!

[Nathaniel Jacobs]

According to the BBC stats man:
Smith has now scored 100 and 50 in the same match 9 times.
Kohli has done it 8 times. Williamson 6 times and Root twice.

Ridiculous how prolific Smith is and he's played fewer innings than all the others listed.

[Soul Requiem]

Something about a certain Ben Foakes playing?

[Dolphin Ziggler]

Lost their best bowler and their spinner has lost his head. The gameplan appears to have been blown up by fear of Smith, too

[guildfordbat]

Part of the problem is the amount of different plans they've tried and how quickly they ditch them and move onto another one, they did the same last year with Kohli; Root has a habit of trying to be too clever with certain batsmen. The best two captains of recent years were Vaughan and Hussain who would both have plans for every batsmen but would stick with them for a prolonged period of time.

Shane Warne - who, similar to David Lloyd, I find a decent pundit in the longer form of the game and when not playing the clown as too often happens with t20 commentaries - making the points as above and especially being prepared to stick with them for a prolonged period.

Worth keeping in mind as well that a plan might take several overs from start to finish in setting up a different batsmen. I've heard such different greats from yesteryear as Andy Roberts and Bishen Bedi talk about this.

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