World Rankings - things just got interesting

First topic message reminder :

With the World Cup still a few weeks away, it's nice to try and apply some context to the week's matches.

When the official rankings come out on Monday, New Zealand will be top with 89.04, Wales will be second with 88.89 then Ireland (88.69), England (87.34), South Africa (86.83) and Australia (84.41).

Ireland don't play next week and South Africa play Argentina at home next week. Argentina are ranked so low now that a win would not allow South Africa up the rankings, and they can only lose points if they fail to win. The other two games of note are NZ at home to Australia and Wales at home to England.

There's a miniscule gap between NZ and Wales, and as Wales are playing a higher ranked team, any Wales win will see them officially ranked number 1 in the published rankings. Conversely if England beat Wales by 16+ points, England will be ranked number 1. Both these outcomes exist outside of NZ's sphere of influence.

If NZ beat Australia they'll be on 89.28 points. If they thrash Australia, they'll be on 89.40 points.

A Wales win would take them up to 89.43 points and a thrashing of England would take them to 89.71. Either of these would be more than NZ could muster against Australia.

An England win would see England up to 88.79, which is less than NZ after any kiwi win. However, an England thrashing of Wales would see them up to 89.52, and therefore above anything NZ could achieve.

England could also top the rankings with any win, if NZ fail to win against Australia. A draw against Australia would see NZ drop to 88.28 points and a loss would see them fall further. A narrow England win and an NZ draw or loss would see England top the rankings therefore.

The eagle-eyed amongst you might have noticed that "NZ fail to win - 88.28" would see NZ drop below Ireland, who would therefore rise to second. Ireland could even top the rankings if Wales and England then drew, as England would take enough points from Wales to drag them below Ireland but not enough to themselves get above Ireland.

If NZ lose at home to Australia, they would drop to third with a Wales win or 4th with a draw or an England win. If they suffered a second successive thrashing, they'd fall to 6th below Australia and South Africa. You can file that last scenario in "unlikely", but that would probably be their worst ever position.

Below the top 6 you've got Scotland and France in 7th and 8th. The winner of their game will be ranked higher at the end of the week, although neither can catch the top 6 or drop below those below them.

No 7&1/2 wrote:With the way the rugby international calendar is form can be down to luck, particularly the NH season. We don't play a set selection of teams each in summer tours and ais. We dont play home and away in the 6ns. Once you accept that as LT has made clear the rankings show results from the last 12 to 18 months. The nature of the fixtures however mean they simply cant offer a definitive answer on who is best. Thus it is down to personal thought.

What are you saying ? Wales are top of the pile by luck ?

For the record, I would be very surprised if we are still there after the WC, especially as the points are worth double during a WC.

No 7&1/2 wrote:With the way the rugby international calendar is form can be down to luck, particularly the NH season. We don't play a set selection of teams each in summer tours and ais. We dont play home and away in the 6ns. Once you accept that as LT has made clear the rankings show results from the last 12 to 18 months. The nature of the fixtures however mean they simply cant offer a definitive answer on who is best. Thus it is down to personal thought.

Unless we had the global season that Pichot was pushing the rankings will always have a caveat. They are however a good guide as to form and it takes quite some achievement to top the rankings which it is reasonable to celebrate.

New Zealand won the 2015 World Cup and could claim to be the best team. They finished 2015 top of the rankings and due to the dreadful showings in the WC the NH sides were nowhere. (NZ 96.1, Aus 89.3. SA 87.7)

New Zealand largely maintained form in 2016 with England being the biggest gainers having won a GS, whitewashed Australia away and won all their AIs. South Africa had a dreadful year. (NZ 94.7, Eng 90.46, Aus 86.4)

New Zealand largely maintained form in 2017, while England despite losing their unbeaten run still had a strong year winning 6Ns, a series in Argentina and strong AIs. Ireland were on the rise (NZ 94.0, Eng 90.9, Ire 86.39)

New Zealand largely maintained form in 2018 but the slide had started, Ireland continued to gain ground winning a GS and beating NZ in the Autumn. Wales moved ahead of England who had struggled through the first half of the season. (NZ  92.54, Ire 91.17, Wales 87.24)

In 2019 New Zealands form has continued to slide seeing them surrender top spot for the first time in perhaps a decade. Wales winning the GS have been the big winners (Wales 89.4, NZ 89.4 , Eng 88.1)

Of course the World Cup will give us the definitive answer (although maybe not definitive as there are often people arguing the World Cup winners are not the best - especially when NZ fail to win). Wales could top the rankings entering the tournament, but need to win both games with Ireland. They will however go into the tournament as confident as they ever have and rightly so. New Zealand's apparent dip in form means that there are a few teams who will hope to get their hands on the trophy. I still make New Zealand favourites as I believe they have more potential than any other team.

LordDowlais wrote:

No 7&1/2 wrote:With the way the rugby international calendar is form can be down to luck, particularly the NH season. We don't play a set selection of teams each in summer tours and ais. We dont play home and away in the 6ns. Once you accept that as LT has made clear the rankings show results from the last 12 to 18 months. The nature of the fixtures however mean they simply cant offer a definitive answer on who is best. Thus it is down to personal thought.

What are you saying ? Wales are top of the pile by luck ?

For the record, I would be very surprised if we are still there after the WC, especially as the points are worth double during a WC.

I doubt anyone is saying that.

These pre RWC games, especially the NH faux games, have been a bit of a laugh and to see mostly NH people actually give a sh*t about them and the #1 WR rankings is a bit amusing. Ireland getting pumped by 60 points, lol

ebop wrote:These pre RWC games, especially the NH faux games, have been a bit of a laugh and to see mostly NH people actually give a sh*t about them and the #1 WR rankings is a bit amusing.

You obviously care enough to comment.

Yeah, cause it’s funny, haha

ebop wrote:These pre RWC games, especially the NH faux games, have been a bit of a laugh and to see mostly NH people actually give a sh*t about them and the #1 WR rankings is a bit amusing. Ireland getting pumped by 60 points, lol

Wales are top of the pile for a Joke?

Only after a couple of warm ups

ebop wrote:Yeah, cause it’s funny, haha

Oh yes of course, the reality is the rest of us can see your bitterness seeping through.

Calm down mate

Can anyone explain these NH warm up games and how Ireland can inexplicably be pumped by 60 points by a suspect 6N choking English team that has previously lacked a single clue? Come on Soul Requiem, explain that please.

ebop wrote:Only after a couple of warm ups

Don't think Wales are no.1 because of the world cup warm up games, are they? Especially as they lost one. It's the previous year that got them to no.2 and then NZ getting pumped by Aus in the SH comp got them to 1.

The Oracle wrote:

ebop wrote:Only after a couple of warm ups

Don't think Wales are no.1 because of the world cup warm up games, are they?  Especially as they lost one. It's the previous year that got them to no.2 and then NZ getting pumped by Aus in the SH comp got them to 1.

Indeed the two main reasons Wales are number 1 ranked for now:

1) Until they started the warm-ups they had won 15 matches in a row beating every top 10 team except for NZ who they did not play.
2) NZ have seen a marked drop in form losing comfortably to Ireland and Australia, and drawing with SA

The Oracle wrote:

ebop wrote:Only after a couple of warm ups

Don't think Wales are no.1 because of the world cup warm up games, are they?  Especially as they lost one. It's the previous year that got them to no.2 and then NZ getting pumped by Aus in the SH comp got them to 1.

Yeah, that was another joke. NZ are comedy gold in WC years.

There is only one reason Wales are ranked 1. They've earned it. Good luck to them. If you play seriously enough then you take the rewards.

LondonTiger, I have to give you a tonne of credit for the restraint displayed, kudos to you pal, you are a ‘star’. Wales are #1. The RWC is theirs to lose. If they do not win the RWC they are chokers.

ebop wrote:LondonTiger, I have to give you a tonne of credit for the restraint displayed, kudos to you pal, you are a ‘star’. Wales are #1. The RWC is theirs to lose. If they do not win the RWC they are chokers.

Thats just silly.

There’s a lot of ‘silly’ presented on this forum Guns. A #1 ranked team not winning the RWC being called chokers is not one of them.

LondonTiger wrote:Gents,


This discussion will get emotional. The rankings are what they are and due to that will always cause debate, which will at times get heated. There is no reason to get childish or spam the board with comments designed to do nothing except wind people up.


The report for Wumming has been upheld by me and this can be considered an official warning. Thi scan be appealed to another Mod if you wish.

The WR rankings are what they are

There is no disputing the fact.......

Wales are #1

ebop wrote:There’s a lot of ‘silly’ presented on this forum Guns. A #1 ranked team not winning the RWC being called chokers is not one of them.

It is, could it be that you have come up with that because NZ have been called chokers in the past for not winning RWCs?

NZ have spent way more time at number 1 and beating all in sundry when they got the label. Wales are just acclimatizing in the death zone at the summit of the rankings so Im not sure that they have been dominant for long enough against enough teams to be called chokers. They still deserve to be called numero uno and serious contenders for now though.

Collapse2005 wrote:

ebop wrote:There’s a lot of ‘silly’ presented on this forum Guns. A #1 ranked team not winning the RWC being called chokers is not one of them.

It is, could it be that you have come up with that because NZ have been called chokers in the past for not winning RWCs?

NZ have spent way more time at number 1 and beating all in sundry when they got the label. Wales are just acclimatizing in the death zone at the summit of the rankings so Im not sure that they have been dominant for long enough against enough teams to be called chokers. They still deserve to be called numero uno and serious contenders for now though.

Guns, nice analogy with the ‘death zone’. Wales are a very good team and coached well over a long period. They have been dark horses for a long time and now the spotlight is on them, it’s a bit awkward to be fair.  A lot of teams covet the spotlight but when it comes to the crunch, it’s awkward. Same with Ireland. Got a bit awkward.

I like where Ireland are right now. No one really gives them a chance which suits me just fine and I'm sure the team are happy enough with that too so no not awkward really. Think Schmidt once said rankings are just for the fans and the media.

LD simply that it's impossible for the rankings to give you a definitive answer on the best due to the nature of fixtures. Theres obviously limits to any competition in regards a definitive 'who is best' but theres a clear argument that the football premiership in football is a better comp to hive you who is best in england rather than the fa cup. Play everyone (in the top league at least) vs 1 off games.

LT. I'd be in that second group. Knock out games can lead to upsets and the better team losing eg when NZ lost to France a few years back.

Collapse2005 wrote:I like where Ireland are right now. No one really gives them a chance which suits me just fine and I'm sure the team are happy enough with that too so no not awkward really. Think Schmidt once said rankings are just for the fans and the media.

Indeed, probably sums up Irish, Welsh, Scottish, French fans views

ebop wrote:Only after a couple of warm ups

Wales have actually lost points these warm-ups. They were higher ranked in April after the Six Nations.

If no warm-ups had been played, Wales would still be the number 1 ranked team.

ebop wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:I like where Ireland are right now. No one really gives them a chance which suits me just fine and I'm sure the team are happy enough with that too so no not awkward really. Think Schmidt once said rankings are just for the fans and the media.

Indeed, probably sums up Irish, Welsh, Scottish, French fans views

Think you missed the point completely. Its not what Irish fans think of their team its more like the view from elsewhere.

robbo277 wrote:

ebop wrote:Only after a couple of warm ups

Wales have actually lost points these warm-ups. They were higher ranked in April after the Six Nations.

If no warm-ups had been played, Wales would still be the number 1 ranked team.

Well...... hmmmm......

Another way of approaching that logic would be to say that had there been no warm-ups, there'd have been no World Cup approaching, there'd have been no shortened SH Championship...there'd be no New Zealand need to be coy (v Australia) in how well prepared they are for said World Cup.

robbo277 wrote:

ebop wrote:Only after a couple of warm ups

Wales have actually lost points these warm-ups. They were higher ranked in April after the Six Nations.

If no warm-ups had been played, Wales would still be the number 1 ranked team.

Thanks robbo277, what you’re saying is that Wales are even more awesome than what the WR rankings are saying. Makes sense, they have had a good run. RWC is theirs to lose. Or England’s, because they pumped Ireland for 70 points.

Why is ebop's point, however sardonically put, being given a Red Exclamation point?

In no way does his comment require that nonsense.  This is why normal tit for tat fun is upgraded to 'serious' and people get banned.

Would grown men in here just ...well grow up and stop with the exclamation mark stuff for inoffensive 'banter'.  Mad bloody world.

It was probably flagged for wumming. No one dies when a post is flagged.

Thanks SecretFly, you know the score, it’s all about the jive. Wumming = banter. It can go well, it can go bad. People have memories and this is the beauty of it.

Collapse2005 wrote:It was probably flagged for wumming. No one dies when a post is flagged.

Ha ha!  And I pick up a red bar for telling grown men to grow up.  I'll consider it an honour.

Nobody dies from 'wumming' either.... I think.

SecretFly wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:It was probably flagged for wumming. No one dies when a post is flagged.

Ha ha!  And I pick up a red bar for telling grown men to grow up.  I'll consider it an honour.

Nobody dies from 'wumming' either.... I think.

I gave you the red bar for the laugh. I got one myself today, hadnt really noticed them before.

ebop wrote:

robbo277 wrote:

ebop wrote:Only after a couple of warm ups

Wales have actually lost points these warm-ups. They were higher ranked in April after the Six Nations.

If no warm-ups had been played, Wales would still be the number 1 ranked team.

Thanks robbo277, what you’re saying is that Wales are even more awesome than what the WR rankings are saying. Makes sense, they have had a good run. RWC is theirs to lose. Or England’s, because they pumped Ireland for 70 points.

No, what I'm saying is they haven't been artificially inflated by these warm-ups, which are less meaningful than in-competition test matches.

They are the form side coming into the World Cup though, hence the number 1. That was true before the warm-ups. A couple of away losses though (England a couple of weeks ago and Ireland next week) and then the questions of not having beat any of the top 6 away from home will remain and with those they'll lose the number 1. This appears reasonable.

Collapse2005 wrote:

LordDowlais wrote:

LondonTiger wrote:I would say though that on the current strong run they have yet to beat a good team away from home.

That's very disingenuous of you, Wales last few away games have been against Argentina, France, Scotland and we have beaten them all.

Lets just remember, England were lucky to draw against Scotland at Twickenham and France away is no picnic either.

France, Argentina and Scotland are all low enough in the rankings. Away wins v SA, Eng, Ire and NZ would be pretty tough for Wales.

Well theyve lost the last 11 straight away to three of those teams, last 4 to England away, won 1.5 from last 3 vs Ireland away.

Yeah they have the best record v Ireland in recent years than any side but still a tough fixture for them in Dublin.

Collapse2005 wrote:Yeah they have the best record v Ireland in recent years than any side but still a tough fixture for them in Dublin.

not harder than in London, Oz, SA, and certainly NZ where it has never happened. Dublin isnt special if you aint winning anywhere else either.

ebops comment about choking is a valid one. For me the no. 1 ranked side should expect to be in the final to live up to that ranking. Anyone ranked no. 1 in any sport would expect to contest the sports premier event.

To not make the final suggests one of two things...the side choked, or the ranking is flawed.

And in rugby this probably applies more than any other sport because the rugby rankings are skewed heavily towards the latest....in fact almost the last, results.

When NZ were no. 1 up to, through and after 2007, they were consistently tagged chokers. And that was fair enough. Didnt even make semis.

Whoever is ranked number one going in, and doesnt make final, including NZ, who I think it will be after the NH sides continue to fall over eachother, earns that tag.

Nothing like a bit of pressure...

SecretFly wrote:Why is ebop's point, however sardonically put, being given a Red Exclamation point?

In no way does his comment require that nonsense.  This is why normal tit for tat fun is upgraded to 'serious' and people get banned.

Would grown men in here just ...well grow up and stop with the exclamation mark stuff for inoffensive 'banter'.  Mad bloody world.

Well said, Fly for President...(someones gotta put up with those pesky kiwis )

Good luck for the big comeback match at Millenium Fly. A little shaky in the green camp at the mo, but Im sure a mere wobble, a wee reminder. Then watch em go!

Taylorman wrote:

SecretFly wrote:Why is ebop's point, however sardonically put, being given a Red Exclamation point?

In no way does his comment require that nonsense.  This is why normal tit for tat fun is upgraded to 'serious' and people get banned.

Would grown men in here just ...well grow up and stop with the exclamation mark stuff for inoffensive 'banter'.  Mad bloody world.

Well said, Fly for President...(someones gotta put up with those pesky kiwis )

Good luck for the big comeback match at Millenium Fly. A little shaky in the green camp at the mo, but Im sure a mere wobble, a wee reminder. Then watch em go!

A big Irish win would see them top of the pile, kiwis second, England third and wales fourth. Any win for wales sees us hod our spot.

Red is the new black maybe Taylorman

maestegmafia wrote:

Taylorman wrote:

SecretFly wrote:Why is ebop's point, however sardonically put, being given a Red Exclamation point?

In no way does his comment require that nonsense.  This is why normal tit for tat fun is upgraded to 'serious' and people get banned.

Would grown men in here just ...well grow up and stop with the exclamation mark stuff for inoffensive 'banter'.  Mad bloody world.

Well said, Fly for President...(someones gotta put up with those pesky kiwis )

Good luck for the big comeback match at Millenium Fly. A little shaky in the green camp at the mo, but Im sure a mere wobble, a wee reminder. Then watch em go!

A big Irish win would see them top of the pile, kiwis second, England third and wales fourth. Any win for wales sees us hod our spot.

Red is the new black maybe Taylorman

Could well be Maes...ooh, except England said that two years ago, so we were told to look out for them...oh, but then they lucked out, then Ireland were the new black a year ago so we turned sideways for the green machine, obviously not quick enough...oh but hang on, they fell over as well, and, as luck would have it, little bro Wales had other ideas as well, now its THEM we need to watch out for.

No wonder we're dizzy, we keep aiming at the wrong goalposts. Sure wish the new black would make its mind up...

btw...hows Italy doin'?

Taylorman wrote:

SecretFly wrote:Why is ebop's point, however sardonically put, being given a Red Exclamation point?

In no way does his comment require that nonsense.  This is why normal tit for tat fun is upgraded to 'serious' and people get banned.

Would grown men in here just ...well grow up and stop with the exclamation mark stuff for inoffensive 'banter'.  Mad bloody world.

Well said, Fly for President...(someones gotta put up with those pesky kiwis )

Good luck for the big comeback match at Millenium Fly. A little shaky in the green camp at the mo, but Im sure a mere wobble, a wee reminder. Then watch em go!

Principality dolt

Pie wrote:

Taylorman wrote:

SecretFly wrote:Why is ebop's point, however sardonically put, being given a Red Exclamation point?

In no way does his comment require that nonsense.  This is why normal tit for tat fun is upgraded to 'serious' and people get banned.

Would grown men in here just ...well grow up and stop with the exclamation mark stuff for inoffensive 'banter'.  Mad bloody world.

Well said, Fly for President...(someones gotta put up with those pesky kiwis )

Good luck for the big comeback match at Millenium Fly. A little shaky in the green camp at the mo, but Im sure a mere wobble, a wee reminder. Then watch em go!

Principality dolt

who cares what its called ...oops, you do...

Taylorman wrote:

maestegmafia wrote:

Taylorman wrote:

SecretFly wrote:Why is ebop's point, however sardonically put, being given a Red Exclamation point?

In no way does his comment require that nonsense.  This is why normal tit for tat fun is upgraded to 'serious' and people get banned.

Would grown men in here just ...well grow up and stop with the exclamation mark stuff for inoffensive 'banter'.  Mad bloody world.

Well said, Fly for President...(someones gotta put up with those pesky kiwis )

Good luck for the big comeback match at Millenium Fly. A little shaky in the green camp at the mo, but Im sure a mere wobble, a wee reminder. Then watch em go!

A big Irish win would see them top of the pile, kiwis second, England third and wales fourth. Any win for wales sees us hod our spot.

Red is the new black maybe Taylorman

Could well be Maes...ooh, except England said that two years ago, so we were told to look out for them...oh, but then they lucked out, then Ireland were the new black a year ago so we turned sideways for the green machine, obviously not quick enough...oh but hang on, they fell over as well, and, as luck would have it, little bro Wales had other ideas as well, now its THEM we need to watch out for.

No wonder we're dizzy, we keep aiming at the wrong goalposts. Sure wish the new black would make its mind up...

btw...hows Italy doin'?

Not so good just got a pasting from next years new black

maestegmafia wrote:

Taylorman wrote:

maestegmafia wrote:

Taylorman wrote:

SecretFly wrote:Why is ebop's point, however sardonically put, being given a Red Exclamation point?

In no way does his comment require that nonsense.  This is why normal tit for tat fun is upgraded to 'serious' and people get banned.

Would grown men in here just ...well grow up and stop with the exclamation mark stuff for inoffensive 'banter'.  Mad bloody world.

Well said, Fly for President...(someones gotta put up with those pesky kiwis )

Good luck for the big comeback match at Millenium Fly. A little shaky in the green camp at the mo, but Im sure a mere wobble, a wee reminder. Then watch em go!

A big Irish win would see them top of the pile, kiwis second, England third and wales fourth. Any win for wales sees us hod our spot.

Red is the new black maybe Taylorman

Could well be Maes...ooh, except England said that two years ago, so we were told to look out for them...oh, but then they lucked out, then Ireland were the new black a year ago so we turned sideways for the green machine, obviously not quick enough...oh but hang on, they fell over as well, and, as luck would have it, little bro Wales had other ideas as well, now its THEM we need to watch out for.

No wonder we're dizzy, we keep aiming at the wrong goalposts. Sure wish the new black would make its mind up...

btw...hows Italy doin'?

Not so good just got a pasting from next years new black

seems everyones getting a pasting these days

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/rugby/news/article.cfm?c_id=80&objectid=12265784

Collapse2005 wrote:https://www.nzherald.co.nz/rugby/news/article.cfm?c_id=80&objectid=12265784

Salty!

On the peak, looking down at everything else.  Air smells wonderful.  No wonder the ABs - and Wales - liked it up here.  

Doesn't feel strange either.  Thought it would feel strange but....nope, feels natural.  Why not?  We earned it.

Now, if we actually play some rugby (improving by about 15 to 20% in all areas) we may even get to linger here a while.