QF3 - Match Thread - Wales v France - 20/10/19 - K/O 8:15 BST

[Guest]

First topic message reminder :

Thought I'd get these made nice and early for a few reasons - but one being that we're already now looking ahead to the QFs with several teams having finished their group stage, so it's all heating up for the proper knockout stuff...barring any more disruption.

Wales



Team:Liam Williams; George North, Jonathan Davies, Hadleigh Parkes, Josh Adams; Dan Biggar, Gareth Davies; Wyn Jones, Ken Owens, Tomas Francis; Jake Ball, Alun Wyn Jones; Aaron Wainwright, Justin Tipuric, Josh Navidi.


Reps: Elliot Dee, Rhys Carre, Dillon Lewis, Adam Beard, Ross Moriarty, Tomos Williams, Rhys Patchell, Owen Watkin


France



Team: Medard - Penaud, Vakatawa, Fickou, Huget - Ntamack, Du pont - Ollivon , Alldrit, Lauret -
Vaahamahina, Leroux - Slimani, Guirado (c), Poirot
Bench: Cat, Braille,Sentiano, Gabrillagues, Picamoles, Serin, Lopez, Rattez



Venue: Oita
Referee: Jaco Peyper
AR1: Nic Berry
AR2: Paul Williams
TMO: Marius Joncker

[maestegmafia]

Aye that is a tough call on Wyn Jones. Won’t be surprised to see him rested. Nicky to start and Rhys on the bench maybe?

[Guest]

Aye that is a tough call on Wyn Jones. Won’t be surprised to see him rested. Nicky to start and Rhys on the bench maybe?

We can’t rest our best Loose Head for a 1/4 final. It’s knock out rugby! We might be resting him for a game he never gets to play! Can’t think of the semi. We need to go full strength and change him during the game as and when necessary.

[maestegmafia]

Aye that is a tough call on Wyn Jones. Won’t be surprised to see him rested. Nicky to start and Rhys on the bench maybe?

We can’t rest our best Loose Head for a 1/4 final. It’s knock out rugby! We might be resting him for a game he never gets to play! Can’t think of the semi. We need to go full strength and change him during the game as and when necessary.

He may be fit enough to play another big one. We have to remember though that until very recently Nicky Smith was our first choice, Rhys Carre played very nicely when he came on last weekend. I don’t think the drop off from one to another is that big, they have different qualities.

[Guest]

I personally think that the drop off at scrum time is quite big from Wyn Jones to Nicky Smith. Not sure about Carre as I haven’t seen enough of him. But I feel that Smith is much weaker in the scrum and has gone down hill quite a bit. And the scrum is already being seen as one key area where France will have the upper hand. So I think we need to do everything we can to stand the best chance in that area of the game. Would be devastating to go out of the World Cup due to scrum deficiencies.

[Guest]

Wales announce their team at 4am tonight GMT

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/rugby/rugby-news/wales-team-announced-france-released-17100722

Wyn Jones, Ken, Francis
AWJ, Ball
(the only real question marks) Wainwright, Navidi, Tipuric

G Davies, Biggar
Parkes, JD2
Adams, Liam, North

Dee, N Smith, D Lewis, Shingler, Moriarty, Tomos, Patchell, Watkin

would be my guess. Ofc if JD2 is out, Watkin @ 13, 1/2P to bench.

[majesticimperialman]

As Halfpenny had a big fall out with Gatland? He was all ways the first name on the team sheet at one time.

[maestegmafia]

As Halfpenny had a big fall out with Gatland? He was all ways the first name on the team sheet at one time.

None reported, he played last week. Strength and depth in the back three means he is struggling to get a game. Liam Williams is one of the best fullbacks around. We have a great goal kicker in Biggar and Patchell is kicking well too off the bench so no need to include him just because of his strike rate at the posts either.

Why did you think thee had been a falling out? Rather a strange comment considering he was MOM last weekend!

[majesticimperialman]

maes.

I have no complaints about Liam Williams being full back. My  thought was the he( halfpenny) if he was not in for his attacking play he was in for his goal kicking.

But i get your point about Biggar and Patchell.

[Guest]

Not really maj. Lots of injury issues in 2018 unfortunately - head knocks. Kept him out of the game for months.

That led to Liam Williams nailing the shirt, but he'd already done that in 2017 with the Lions. With Biggar's kicking seemingly now on par with Halfpenny - who's not kicking at the % he once did - there's no real need for his best attribute, which was his boot.

Still a fantastic defensive full back and will do a job if called upon - as he did in the warm ups despite having had a full training session in the morning and apparently being shattered before kick off.

But he's not good enough to start, and Gatland sees Watkin as a useful closer to come on for Parkes - who probably goes quiet second half as his legs start to go - so Watkin gets the outside back position on the bench.

Not a falling out at all, just a combination of unfortunate circumstances and good strength in depth for Wales.

[whocares]

Scrum is not really a strength in French game this year. Our only décent TH, Slimani, gets penalised every now and then while our LH (Poirot) is not really there for his scrummaging skills. I’ll be happy if we get parity to be honest. I don’t expect France to milk many penalties from it anyway, they like to use as a platform
to launch some of their attacks these days ( quite a change from certain France Wales games in recent years ).

[Guest]

It's so much that France are good, but Wales are weak. I would expect Wales to concede a few penalties from defensive scrums.

[LondonTiger]

Wales: Liam Williams; George North, Jonathan Davies, Hadleigh Parkes, Josh Adams; Dan Biggar, Gareth Davies; Wyn Jones, Ken Owens, Tomas Francis; Jake Ball, Alun Wyn Jones; Aaron Wainwright, Justin Tipuric, Josh Navidi.


Reps: Elliot Dee, Rhys Carre, Dillon Lewis, Adam Beard, Ross Moriarty, Tomos Williams, Rhys Patchell, Owen Watkin

[RiscaGame]

Squad as expected for me. Ignoring the injury doubts, there was obviously a decision to be made in the back row, but that was it. Players like Shingler and Smith haven’t shown enough, Dee was always going to be the replacement hooker and Gatland was always likely to select an out and out lock as a replacement.

Just hope JD is fit.

[maestegmafia]

This game can’t come soon enough, this week seems to have dragged on a fortnight.

Great to see all miaows fitness worries not avail. Clean bill of health throughout.

[LondonTiger]

[sensisball]

France as selected for England game:
Medard - Penaud, Vakatawa, Fickou, Huget - Ntamack, Du pont - Ollivon , Alldrit, Lauret -
Vaahamahina, Leroux - Slimani, Guirado (c), Poirot
Bench: Cat, Braille,Sentiano, Gabrillagues, Picamoles, Serin, Lopez, Rattez
Two things of note: no Iturria selected so the Welsh lineout can breath a bit easier.
Rattez plays his first minutes in this campaign off the bench. He replaced the injured Ramos, twisted ankle, who went back to Toulouse, was given a clean bill of health by the club doctor and played last weekend.

[bsando]

Rattez has been smashing it at La Rochelle, a dangerous option from the bench. I like this French team, just a question of wether they manage to keep their discipline and structure in defence. I'm sure they'll cause Wales some problems but against the organised and well drilled Welsh I think they'll struggle to win this one. Can only really see France winning if they surprise Wales early in both halves with a few tries. I think they may want to play a fast and open game and get their big ball carriers blasting into that Welsh defence. Offloads? Bah oui!

[Poorfour]

That's probably as strong a squad as Wales can put out.

Carre and Lewis aren't the best bench props in the game, but Smith would have been a liability - he's been hinging like a barn door and if the refs wised up to it he'd be in trouble.

A key question now is whether Davies is fully fit. Gatland does have a tendency to pick players coming back from injury and hope they play themselves back into form.

[Luckless Pedestrian]

Rattez has been smashing it at La Rochelle, a dangerous option from the bench. I like this French team, just a question of wether they manage to keep their discipline and structure in defence. I'm sure they'll cause Wales some problems but against the organised and well drilled Welsh I think they'll struggle to win this one. Can only really see France winning if they surprise Wales early in both halves with a few tries. I think they may want to play a fast and open game and get their big ball carriers blasting into that Welsh defence. Offloads? Bah oui!

Yeah I wasn't too happy seeing Rattez on the bench. He's a real threat ball in hand.

[maestegmafia]

It’s going to be an exciting one, I’m going to go see the doctor to get some medication to keep my heart rate at bay. Biggest issue will be do I go for one weeks course or three?

The welsh squad are pretty settled where as the french not so much. Hopefully that works in our favour.

They certainly have plenty of talent and if they gel together they could be a hell of a team.

[sensisball]

Rattez plays really well for La Rochelle who have big carriers who can generate quick ball for Rattez to use quick feet and good acceleration to wreak havoc against club defences. Not sure Wales would give him the time and space to showcase his talents. The absurdity is Ramos being declared unfit by French team doctors and then being passed fit to play for Toulouse at the weekend. I know French club teams are often, quite rightly, accused of mismanaging their players when it comes to their fitness to play. However I find it hard to fathom how Toulouse would risk one of their crucial players if he wasn't close to 100% fit. Bit of a shambles to have introduce a player who had zero game time in the preparation matches into a knockout game, albeit from the bench.

[mikey_dragon]

Poor Brunel, trying to have us on when suggesting that the Top 14 has player welfare as a priority.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/welsh

[SecretFly]

They have though.  It's an exact science.
Players get a full medical each weekend before games.

"Are you well?"
"Em?.... "
"Are you well?  Speak up!"
"I think so..."
"'Think so?' - Think so is not good enough!  Are you well".
"I'm as well as can be expected, I suppose."
"That's better.   Good."
Player welfare certificate stamped for another week.

[Guest]

This French team is significantly better than the one in 2015, but not to the point where they look like they could run Wales ragged for 20-30 minutes. That would be the only way they could win and compensate for all their deficiencies. But when you look at the French team in 2015 - there are some absolute journeymen in that team. It's full of non-French average players. This side is at least a bit more French with a few Fijians thrown in.

France had won the 6Ns in 2010. The last time they won it. Not even close to comparing that French team to this one.

Since 2016 Wales have won 3, lost one:

France v Wales 10-19 W
France v Wales 20-18 F
France v Wales 13-14 W
France v Wales 19-24 W

Margins of 9, 5, 1 and -2, France scoring 6 tries to 5 across the four.

Can't see how this is that much of a mismatch to be honest, that doesnt assume dominance, thats two very close teams.
Certainly enough to not think all hope is lost for France.

I'll help you out, as it's easy to miss the context from an armchair in NZ.

The loss - the only loss since the 2011 RWC semi final - took 100 minutes to achieve. It also took a yellow card, about 50 scrums on the 5m line, Huget biting George North at the bottom of the ruck, some typical French TMO work, and then, eventually, they snuck a win with the last kick of the game.

The other games, though somewhat close on the scoreline, dont tell the comfort Wales have had against France in competitive terms.

It doesn't show you how Wales effectively dominate France by just sticking structure and picking them off every single time. It doesn't show you the scoreline control and dominance - or that, even when we didn't do that, as in 2019, we still pick them off and win with as relative comfort as you can from being 16-0 down at HT.

It doesn't show you that Wales have been able to turn up against France, not play particularly well - in fact, I'd say every game against the French has been a relative underperformance in the attacking/clinical stakes - and still not really look like losing. We didn't even look like losing the game we lost - it took a Warburton kick out on the full from 65m, whichis a freak incident in itself, and that scrum became a 5m scrum, and then it still took France 20 minutes to score a try.

But most of all, it doesn't show you that Wales can play France in between absolute mammoth games against England and Ireland, either be closely competitive or win those games, and then turn up and beat France without getting out of third gear the next week. The 6Ns is a tricky beast, and now, in an era where backing up seems next to impossible, Wales' dominance France is pretty telling.

Results don't give you the full picture. Wales are 7 from 8 v France and beating them with relative ease each time - I thought you of all people who uses stats from 100 years ago would appreciate that there are many players will take that form and success in to this game. In a RWC, I'd expect and hope them to be more ruthless on the scoreboard and have a 3 score lead by 60 minutes, but we'll see how it goes. It's more likely to focus will still be on stopping France scoring - even in that 14-13 game it never felt like Wales would lose, and despite a 1 point lead, were in control. Same again, I'd imagine, for Gatland.

Replying to this from the NZ v Ireland game thread. Seems irrelevant to have this convo in there.

[Guest]

Got it wrong then, JD2 fit to play, maesteg's anger fully rational after all.

Bit surprised, but relieved about that. Do worry if both are niggly, how that then impacts the mindset to play. Parkes in particular looks like he's carrying knocks on just about every part of his body.

[Guest]

Who is downvoting these comments btw...almost on the button. Sad as f.

[RiscaGame]

Poor Brunel, trying to have us on when suggesting that the Top 14 has player welfare as a priority.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/welsh

Haha.

I was surprised he recovered so quickly, but I suppose he was knocked out rather than concussed and also the tests seem pretty rigorous. I think for half these cognitive tests, I would be classed as permanently concussed.

[RiscaGame]

Got it wrong then, JD2 fit to play, maesteg's anger fully rational after all.

Bit surprised, but relieved about that. Do worry if both are niggly, how that then impacts the mindset to play. Parkes in particular looks like he's carrying knocks on just about every part of his body.

Was going to post that Parkes seems the bigger doubt now. Madness.

[Guest]

France as selected for England game:
Medard - Penaud, Vakatawa, Fickou, Huget - Ntamack, Du pont - Ollivon , Alldrit, Lauret -
Vaahamahina, Leroux - Slimani, Guirado (c), Poirot
Bench: Cat, Braille,Sentiano, Gabrillagues, Picamoles, Serin, Lopez, Rattez
Two things of note: no Iturria selected so the Welsh lineout can breath a bit easier.
Rattez plays his first minutes in this campaign off the bench. He replaced the injured Ramos, twisted ankle, who went back to Toulouse, was given a clean bill of health by the club doctor and played last weekend.

Firstly, yep, seen this one doing the rounds and it's beyond stunning. What on earth has happened there - you have to assume he was the sacrificial lamb in whatever uprising occurred a few weeks ago. Either way, a real threat, and as good as Medard is he's nowhere near Ramos as an attacking option now.

For France, I look at that team and I see Wales exploiting their midfield, Huget, possibly Ntamack through intense, harrying, spot blitz pressure (Shingler is ideal here so expect Gareth Davies to take up the mantle). In the forwards, front row seems decent, second row seems cumbersome but big - as expected, and as mentioned, not the lineout threat they might be - with who knows what coming in the back row. That decides the game here - can the French match the technical work of the Welsh 3. Personally don't think so.

For Wales, tough call on Nicky Smith, but Carre's done well. Dee v Elias must have been close as well, but makes sense sticking with the more experienced option. Dylan Lewis has to be hoping he goes unnoticed in the scrums and Carre covers his @rse on the other side from the bench.

Tough, tough call on Shingler, but probably didn't quite do enough. Don't think Beard has shown enough against Uruguay either so this is an audition for him, too. As much as anything, it's a case of picking who's 'done it' before in the past. Beard's still a bit hit and miss for me, looks a bit like bambi on ice at times, but when he puts his head down seems to do the basic, grinding stuff quite well.

Would still like to see Watkin having 20 minutes or so if things are going well, or even if they're not. Want to see what he offers at 12.

[Luckless Pedestrian]

Dee v Elias must have been close as well, but makes sense sticking with the more experienced option.

Must it?

[Guest]

For Carre's sake, yes, considering the unit that closes out the game is likely to have him playing in his first 'proper' test match and a tighthead who's not really found his feet yet. As good as Elias is - and I really rate him, think he will leapfrog Dee in the not too distant future - Dee is the incumbent, holds the shirt, and has done decently from the bench.

So it makes sense.

EDIT: Ah, I see you were questioning whether it was close. Yes, because in my opinion Elias is the better player, just less experienced as he's behind Ken at club level. Elias was the starting 2 in the u20s with Dee on the bench, and I can see that being the dynamic as and when Ken retires. Also, Elias has done well in every game he's played - a win v SA, looked good in the warm ups, and again was one of the shining lights in the loose first half v Uruguay. Proper rugby player Elias. Dee's good as well though, just doesn't have quite the same potential for me.

[whocares]

With regards of Ramos so called injury: when the latter was diagnosed in Japan with a possible injury 2 + weeks ago. It wasn’t 100% sure at that time and obviously could have waited a week for clarification. Staff decided they didn’t have time and preferred to have a 100% fit option before the game than someone who has 50% chances of being injured.
It goes to say that if Ramos was as important as say Biggar or Pebaud he would have stayed in the team till the last minute but he isn’t so why take the risk.

[Guest]

Intereting logic. Makes sense, but seems a mistake to me. Ramos still looks like a great attacking player.

[gowershowerpower]

'Ah, I see you were questioning whether it was close. Yes, because in my opinion Elias is the better player,'

so it's your opinion then as a knowitall and not a definitive answer? So it might not have been a close call at all, because you didn't have any say in the matter.

It just sums it up when you bang on and on about your perception of injuries, past results, and the inclusion of Watkin. You know not a jot.

[Guest]

what on earth are you on about? calm down, dear.

[RiscaGame]

If Elias is to jump ahead of Dee, he should really leave Scarlets. In my opinion, him being Owens’ understudy isn’t going to do him any favours.

Not sure there’s going to be many rating Elias over Dee, other than supporters of a certain pro team. That said, I suppose having an ex Scarlets head coach might help his Wales prospects. Can’t say I’ve ever noticed Dee be underpowered.

[Guest]

Disagree. Think it's Dragons bias here and you're accusing me of exactly what's actually blinding opinions. I can't even give an opinion without being personally attacked, which is pathetic. As I said, Elias was a better hooker than Dee at U20s and looks like he has all the skills to be better in the men's game as well.

Perhaps Dragons fans just haven't seen enough of him. Obvious enough why you'd back Dee, but it's pretty clear bias to just lazily suggest it's not a judgement call - it's not as if I'm biased at all, I call it as I see it. Tomos is/will be better than Gareth Davies at 9 for instance. Not everything is bias, but I'd say it is in the case of too many Dragons fans on here, sadly, to the point where you'd suggest he leaves the best Welsh team where he's getting good playing time, good experience, on the best coaching ticket, for...where exactly? Elias has it all. Like Ken, he's got the talent, but isn't being rushed.

Unfortunately we've now got to look forward to the return of club bias in selections - something we've got used to forgetting under Gatland. That'll be fun, every Scarlets player who gets selected questioned and intimiated by your own fans and media just because Pivac is coach...great stuff...thanks for the early heads up though, boys.

[RiscaGame]

Early heads up? You’ve just said you will be leaving again after the RWC?

It’s nothing to do with my bias, but if it is, then at least Gatland backs my view up.

[TightHEAD]

Poor Brunel, trying to have us on when suggesting that the Top 14 has player welfare as a priority.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/welsh

That's a whole other issue, but to be honest I think Brunel has a point, I wonder what Biggar's family think of him playing this weekend?

[Luckless Pedestrian]

With respect Miaow, don't you see the hypocrisy in your post? Why is it that your view that Elias is better than Dee is clear-headed and unbiased, but any Dragons fan's view that Dee is better than Elias must be based on his being a Dragon?

[RiscaGame]

Also, I haven’t attacked you once.

I do find it nonsensical to justify a player as being better from what happened in the u20s. Jason Tovey used to out play Biggar, so should he be playing on Sunday?

[mikey_dragon]

Poor Brunel, trying to have us on when suggesting that the Top 14 has player welfare as a priority.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/welsh

That's a whole other issue, but to be honest I think Brunel has a point, I wonder what Biggar's family think of him playing this weekend?

They're probably backing him 100%, as per usual.

[Guest]

Early heads up? You’ve just said you will be leaving again after the RWC?

It’s nothing to do with my bias, but if it is, then at least Gatland backs my view up.

I mean in Wales as a whole.

Gatland also picked Scott Baldwin over Ken for 2015. Pretty clear who the better player is/was. Wouldn't worry, it's just opinions though. Elias has stood out in the games he's played for Wales. Good carrying option. Not sure why you'd want to literally make a cheap point against a Welsh player because...what...you want to disagree with me?

[Guest]

Also, I haven’t attacked you once.

I do find it nonsensical to justify a player as being better from what happened in the u20s. Jason Tovey used to out play Biggar, so should he be playing on Sunday?

It's not 'just' that. It's a sign that some other regional/Welsh fans might not know about Elias and think Dee is better because he broke through earlier, but Elias is of course at a much stronger region (don't take that badly...) where the depth at hooker has meant we've had to ship them out to other regions as we can't keep them all.

[Guest]

With respect Miaow, don't you see the hypocrisy in your post? Why is it that your view that Elias is better than Dee is clear-headed and unbiased, but any Dragons fan's view that Dee is better than Elias must be based on his being a Dragon?

No, I don't see the hypocrisy.

I state my opinion on the players which is as honest and unbiased as it can be.

Dragons fans defend their player and disagree with the poster, personally. There's nothing of substance there. No 'oh no, he should be elected because X, Y, Z'. It's 'you're only saying that because you're a Scarlet'.

Not hypocrisy at all. That's the problem with disagreements. One person can be totally fair and honest and the other dishonest, and the latter can drag it down to 'but your opinon is equal to mine'. If someone had stated a better case than I have for Dee - which, let's be clear, I was backing his selection over Elias...let's not forget that - then I'm yet to see it.

But it's all just personal b1tching lately. Pathetic.

No hypocrisy from me. I'm clear in what I said and why.

[RiscaGame]

Because Dee has been 16 for ages and hasn’t done anything to warrant being replaced by Elias. That’s why I assume people will question how it could be a close call.

[Guest]

Where is this personal attack that you talk of, Miaow??? Do you mean the comment from gowerpowershower? Pretty sure he’s an Ospreys fan.

[Luckless Pedestrian]

We haven't made the case for Dee over Elias because it hasn't needed to be made.

Dee wouldn't have played in 25 of Wales's last 26 Test matches if he wasn't seen quite clearly as better than Ryan Elias. I'll take Gatland's opinion of the two over yours, Miaow.

[Guest]

I qualified why Elias would be close to replacing Dee. Bigger, stronger, more powerful. In an underpowered front row that was taken apart by Australia (with Dee in it) and has wobbled for a while, you look elsewhere to see what will work. Gatland's gone Carre over Nicky Smith. Probably the right call, but who knows, Carre's even more raw than Elias. Considering how good Elias 'is' as a player, and also how he's carried in the loose - again, against SA last year, Ireland in the warm ups, and Uruguay (not top opposition, admittedly), he also offers a great dynamic carrying option in the loose that Wales almot certainly need. Hopefully there's still a lot of growth to be had in the physicality stakes over the next 2 years as Ken winds down.

I'm sure he did miss a few lineouts. Had a rough time in the warm up against Ireland as well throwing in. Lack of experience works against him knowing how much he's to blame, past performance etc. But distinctly remember Dee having some shockers off the bench in the 6Ns throwing in. Against France for starters? Seems a global trend with teams now cheating like mad at the lineout, making it hard for throwers. Don't see Dee having an edge there, but, again, haven't see Elias in enough games at this level to know if he translates a solid set piece at regional level to Wales - that's why Dee gets the nod.

We'll see how the two hookers fare over the next 4 years. I think Elias is a better player, but not right now. Think I've qualified that enough.

[Guest]

Where is this personal attack that you talk of, Miaow??? Do you mean the comment from gowerpowershower? Pretty sure he’s an Ospreys fan.

That's the most obvious, yeah. Don't need that on the forum. The other is less an 'attack', more just lazy - calling bias before actually discussing the topic. Playing the man, not the ball, if you want. All on the same spectrum though.

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