2019 General Election

First topic message reminder :

Now it's confirmed for December 12th (pretty much), I thought we should have a shiny new thread for the fourth and final UK GE of this tumultuous decade; a decade which has also included three referendums and four (maybe five) different Prime Ministers.

News this morning that Amber Rudd won't be defending her seat. Oh well.

Opinion polls currently have the Tories in a double digit lead, but it's anticipated to be a lot tighter than that by the time we reach the actual polling day.

I didn't see Friday, but by many accounts she came across as rude?

From a Plaid Cymru member's point of view...I'll be honest

While Adam Price is far more intelligent, charismatic, forward thinking and likeable than Leanne Wood ever was (in my opinion)...I do not think he has played this election right at all

Far too much time has been spent talking about independence when he should have been addressing the social issues in Wales. He has won over quite a few Labour voters that I know since being leader but now I think he has lost them again

Nothing wrong with wanting independence from years of Westminster tyranny...but when that becomes your only arguement I think it is very flawed and even Leanne Wood did not make that mistake

Here's hoping the SNP clean up in Scotland

Steffan wrote:From a Plaid Cymru member's point of view...I'll be honest

While Adam Price is far more intelligent, charismatic, forward thinking and likeable than Leanne Wood ever was (in my opinion)...I do not think he has played this election right at all

Far too much time has been spent talking about independence when he should have been addressing the social issues in Wales. He has won over quite a few Labour voters that I know since being leader but now I think he has lost them again

Nothing wrong with wanting independence from years of Westminster tyranny...but when that becomes your only arguement I think it is very flawed and even Leanne Wood did not make that mistake

Here's hoping the SNP clean up in Scotland

They're not exactly putting social issues in Scotland at the forefront of their campaign.

Afro wrote:

lostinwales wrote:I haven't read the Labour manifesto, but I'd be willing to bet that if Labour ditched Corbyn and the more reactionary dinosaurs from the shadow cabinet, found a leader with a brain and less baggage, did the right things to address the AS issues and suppress the worst aspects of momentum etc, they could leave 95% of it in place and walk this election.

Can anyone think of anybody who fits the bill? Quick think hard everyone

Maybe. Tainted, a little, by being a part of Blair's later years and the financial mire that was in situ at the end of that. To be clear, not all the fault of the Blair/Brown Government.

They don't him though; Starmer would suffice I should think.

David Milliband still thinks Iraq was a good idea so that is him out...

Not quite over yet........If Lab/Lib can some how force a hung parliament...Corbyn retires and Starmer/Bailey fights a GE in a couple of Months time as a minority Johnson Govt won't sustain...

Big if though.......Needs Youngsters to make their voices heard...

Steffan wrote:From a Plaid Cymru member's point of view...I'll be honest

While Adam Price is far more intelligent, charismatic, forward thinking and likeable than Leanne Wood ever was (in my opinion)...I do not think he has played this election right at all

Far too much time has been spent talking about independence when he should have been addressing the social issues in Wales. He has won over quite a few Labour voters that I know since being leader but now I think he has lost them again

Nothing wrong with wanting independence from years of Westminster tyranny...but when that becomes your only arguement I think it is very flawed and even Leanne Wood did not make that mistake

Here's hoping the SNP clean up in Scotland

Here's hoping Wales (and Scotland) is independent soon.

Some polls starting to show a little trend towards Labour:

ICM have gone from a 10% Tory lead to 7%. Kantar from 18% to 11% (though that 18% was an outlier). Deltapoll from 15% to 13%. Survation 14% to 11%. YouGov from 14% to 12%. Panelbase from 13% to 10%.

Far too early to say, however, whether this is a minor blip for the Tories which will soon even out or the start of a big swing to Labour.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:Does anyone remember how things were done for the EU referendum? Was that done by the electoral register too?

Yes and there was a big push of 'young voters' registering at the last knockings for that - Cameron's government even extended the deadline on registering to vote for that referendum by 48 hours because of the advantage it gave to the Remain campaign the website crashed for a few minutes.

Thanks. It's just that I've heard a lot about people voting in the referendum who had never voted before. I wondered if the 3 million who have registered in the last few weeks might be those referendum voters, but they're already accounted for.

superflyweight wrote:

Steffan wrote:From a Plaid Cymru member's point of view...I'll be honest

While Adam Price is far more intelligent, charismatic, forward thinking and likeable than Leanne Wood ever was (in my opinion)...I do not think he has played this election right at all

Far too much time has been spent talking about independence when he should have been addressing the social issues in Wales. He has won over quite a few Labour voters that I know since being leader but now I think he has lost them again

Nothing wrong with wanting independence from years of Westminster tyranny...but when that becomes your only arguement I think it is very flawed and even Leanne Wood did not make that mistake

Here's hoping the SNP clean up in Scotland

They're not exactly putting social issues in Scotland at the forefront of their campaign.  

Maybe learning from their mistake in 2017. Less emphasis on independence and it affected their results.

navyblueshorts wrote:Here's hoping Wales (and Scotland) is independent soon.

Thanks buddy

Steffan wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:Here's hoping Wales (and Scotland) is independent soon.

Thanks buddy

No problem. Good luck!

Saw the front page of The Guardian and for the first time in ages didn't buy it..

A time when we should be looking at what a Brexit future brings..and....

14m in Poverty....Worst NHS figures ever and climate change..

We have a sustained and premeditated assault on racism in Labour to stop us talking about the issues...As predictable as night following day.

Of course insulting Asians...Black people and calling gay men men disgusting names is okay apparently..

Spent most of my teenage years being disgusted by the US media..

No different here now I'm afraid....Ridden the slippery slope.

CaledonianCraig wrote:

superflyweight wrote:

Steffan wrote:From a Plaid Cymru member's point of view...I'll be honest

While Adam Price is far more intelligent, charismatic, forward thinking and likeable than Leanne Wood ever was (in my opinion)...I do not think he has played this election right at all

Far too much time has been spent talking about independence when he should have been addressing the social issues in Wales. He has won over quite a few Labour voters that I know since being leader but now I think he has lost them again

Nothing wrong with wanting independence from years of Westminster tyranny...but when that becomes your only arguement I think it is very flawed and even Leanne Wood did not make that mistake

Here's hoping the SNP clean up in Scotland

They're not exactly putting social issues in Scotland at the forefront of their campaign.  

Maybe learning from their mistake in 2017. Less emphasis on independence and it affected their results.

Suppose it makes sense to simplify the argument given the simplistic arguments being put forward by every other party.

Would hope that in the next Scottish elections (whether they be for a devolved or independent parliament) will focus on education and health and what can be done to fix them, rather on constitutional issues. Both education and health are in a terrible state and are within the remit of the Scottsh government (and I know that they are in a terrible state in England and Wales too before that is pointed out, but it's not enough of an argument for a party that has been in power for as long as the SNP have to just point he finger at the poor performance of others).

North Sea oil....I expect like last time..

Scotland could be an interesting issue for the conservatives.

Given they won 13 seats in 2017, and presuming that they lose alot of them. They than have to find them elsewhere.

Can't see the Conservatives winning more than one or two. Labour likewise (if they win any at all).

Will be interesting to see if the Lib Dems gather votes and seats because of their clear position on Brexit and because they may attract people who are uneasy about independence and/or who have not been impressed by the SNP's record in government.

Luke wrote:Scotland could be an interesting issue for the conservatives.

Given they won 13 seats in 2017, and presuming that they lose alot of them. They than have to find them elsewhere.

Latest polls suggest that the Tories could lose just one seat in Scotland;

SNP- 40
Tories- 28
Labour- 20
LD- 11

Seems a bit off to me but worth noting that over 1 millions Scots voted to leave so that could be propping up the Tory vote among unionists.

Scotland could hold an important key for the Tories.
If they do as well as you say, that should hand them a majority. If they don't, then labours in 2015 demolition that cost them could happen.
I presume the Brexit party are standing in Scotland? If so, that will make it more interesting.

They're polling at 1% in Scotland at the moment, don't think they have a great deal of support north of the border.

The Brexit Party are standing in very few seats in Scotland. They’ll have next to zero impact up there.

superflyweight wrote:Can't see the Conservatives winning more than one or two.  Labour likewise (if they win any at all).  

Will be interesting to see if the Lib Dems gather votes and seats because of their clear position on Brexit and because they may attract people who are uneasy about independence and/or who have not been impressed by the SNP's record in government.  

Not living in Scotland, I don't know what the SNP'S records like.
But if you are the lib Dems. And Brexit party, Scotland is where you would be looking to pick up some seats.

Duty281 wrote:The Brexit Party are standing in very few seats in Scotland. They’ll have next to zero impact up there.

Our racists and xenophobes hate the English more than they do the rest of the World.

It's a sign of the times, when people like myself do not want to vote for anyone, where I live, you could put a red rosette on a donkeys arris and the people would still vote for Labour. I have always been a staunch Labour man, but Jeremy Corbyn is the worst leader our party has ever had, I do not want to vote for him.

So, where do I go ? The Tories are making the most sense to me, they seem to be the best of a bad bunch, but it would seriously scar me to vote for them, they stand for so much I am against.

Lib Dems ? Sorry, they just keep coming out with nonsense.

Brexit ? Why, when I voted to remain.

Plaid ? God help us. Imagine them making the decisions and spending the money from Westminster. Far to much a parochial party for me, just like the SNP.

I am seriously considering wasting my vote, I seriously am, for me, all our MP's should be put on trial for treason. They have all used brexit as a means for their own ends, Boris Johnson became PM with it. None of them have done their jobs.

This is a sad time to be British.

You have Nicola Sturgeon trying to ramp up Scottish independence, as she is all part of this together stronger and staying in the EU, yet she wants to leave Great Britain, how does that work ? SNP should be called the braveheart party, as all they are doing is dragging people along on emotions and nationalism, without taking things like borders and currency into consideration.

I put this to people who want independence, both Welsh and Scottish, do you want the Euro as your currency ?

superflyweight wrote:

Duty281 wrote:The Brexit Party are standing in very few seats in Scotland. They’ll have next to zero impact up there.

Our racists and xenophobes hate the English more than they do the rest of the World.

What trash. Since when did wanting rid of Westminster-rule equate to hating the English?

And could I turn this on its head and look at BJ's anti-Scottish rants such as a pound spent in Clapham being better than a pound spent in Clyde.

Hook, line and sinker!

LordDowlais wrote:

You have Nicola Sturgeon trying to ramp up Scottish independence, as she is all part of this together stronger and staying in the EU, yet she wants to leave Great Britain, how does that work ? SNP should be called the braveheart party, as all they are doing is dragging people along on emotions and nationalism, without taking things like borders and currency into consideration.

I put this to people who want independence, both Welsh and Scottish, do you want the Euro as your currency ?

How does that work? Well she and others of us have seen Westminster's BS first hand from failed promises of 2014. All the garbage that Scotland was a valued partner in the union and then it did not even get a say in any Brexit negotiations - WTF. Scots were told the only way to safeguard EU membership was by voting No in 2014. Many did that and are now left feeling cheated and betrayed. As I see it there are options on the currency despite what Better Together tried saying last time around in 2014. And so what if it were the EURO. Money is money and all gets spent the same way and its virtually on a parity with the pound now too and that is before Boris's Brexit nightmare happens.

CaledonianCraig wrote:

LordDowlais wrote:

You have Nicola Sturgeon trying to ramp up Scottish independence, as she is all part of this together stronger and staying in the EU, yet she wants to leave Great Britain, how does that work ? SNP should be called the braveheart party, as all they are doing is dragging people along on emotions and nationalism, without taking things like borders and currency into consideration.

I put this to people who want independence, both Welsh and Scottish, do you want the Euro as your currency ?

How does that work? Well she and others of us have seen Westminster's BS first hand from failed promises of 2014. All the garbage that Scotland was a valued partner in the union and then it did not even get a say in any Brexit negotiations - WTF. Scots were told the only way to safeguard EU membership was by voting No in 2014. Many did that and are now left feeling cheated and betrayed. As I see it there are options on the currency despite what Better Together tried saying last time around in 2014. And so what if it were the EURO. Money is money and all gets spent the same way and its virtually on a parity with the pound now too and that is before Boris's Brexit nightmare happens.

The Euro aside, what other currency options would you suggest?

In terms of the Euro, it's not just about the spending of the actual currency that you need to consider. If an independent Scotland was to adopt the Euro (either through choice or as a condition of membership of the EU) it would not have full control over its fiscal and monetary policy. As a result it becomes more difficult to control inflation (by increasing interest rates or by printing less money).

In addition to that, annual budget rates need to be less than 3% of GDP and debt to GDP ratio needs to be less than 40%. This would make things very diffcult for a new country with an existing disproportionately high rate of public expenditure. That means a massive increase in taxes or a massive cut in public spending.

CaledonianCraig wrote:

superflyweight wrote:

Duty281 wrote:The Brexit Party are standing in very few seats in Scotland. They’ll have next to zero impact up there.

Our racists and xenophobes hate the English more than they do the rest of the World.

What trash. Since when did wanting rid of Westminster-rule equate to hating the English?

And could I turn this on its head and look at BJ's anti-Scottish rants such as a pound spent in Clapham being better than a pound spent in Clyde.

Out of interest, Craig, did you enjoy Nicola's car crash interview with Andrew Neil the other night? I almost felt for her...

Is that the one that the BBC fact-checked and found her to have been telling the truth in every instance?

navyblueshorts wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:

superflyweight wrote:

Duty281 wrote:The Brexit Party are standing in very few seats in Scotland. They’ll have next to zero impact up there.

Our racists and xenophobes hate the English more than they do the rest of the World.

What trash. Since when did wanting rid of Westminster-rule equate to hating the English?

And could I turn this on its head and look at BJ's anti-Scottish rants such as a pound spent in Clapham being better than a pound spent in Clyde.

Out of interest, Craig, did you enjoy Nicola's car crash interview with Andrew Neil the other night? I almost felt for her...

I guarantee you all will be car crash-esque. Why? Andrew Neil's style. Ask a question and when you are getting an answer talk over the top of them. Height of rudeness.

And did you enjoy last week's four on Question Time as by many people's opinion Nicola Sturgeon came across the best.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:Is that the one that the BBC fact-checked and found her to have been telling the truth in every instance?

Oh dear we can't have talk like that here. After all it does not fit into the modus operandi.

superflyweight wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:

LordDowlais wrote:

You have Nicola Sturgeon trying to ramp up Scottish independence, as she is all part of this together stronger and staying in the EU, yet she wants to leave Great Britain, how does that work ? SNP should be called the braveheart party, as all they are doing is dragging people along on emotions and nationalism, without taking things like borders and currency into consideration.

I put this to people who want independence, both Welsh and Scottish, do you want the Euro as your currency ?

How does that work? Well she and others of us have seen Westminster's BS first hand from failed promises of 2014. All the garbage that Scotland was a valued partner in the union and then it did not even get a say in any Brexit negotiations - WTF. Scots were told the only way to safeguard EU membership was by voting No in 2014. Many did that and are now left feeling cheated and betrayed. As I see it there are options on the currency despite what Better Together tried saying last time around in 2014. And so what if it were the EURO. Money is money and all gets spent the same way and its virtually on a parity with the pound now too and that is before Boris's Brexit nightmare happens.

The Euro aside, what other currency options would you suggest?  

In terms of the Euro, it's not just about the spending of the actual currency that you need to consider.  If an independent Scotland was to adopt the Euro (either through choice or as a condition of membership of the EU) it would not have full control over its fiscal and monetary policy.  As a result it becomes more difficult to control inflation (by increasing interest rates or by printing less money).  

In addition to that, annual budget rates need to be less than 3% of GDP and debt to GDP ratio needs to be less than 40%.  This would make things very diffcult for a new country with an existing disproportionately high rate of public expenditure.  That means a massive increase in taxes or a massive cut in public spending.        

There are options. In the immediate aftermath of independence I would foresee the pound being kept as the currency for perhaps a year or two whilst the starting up of a new currency is planned for.

CaledonianCraig wrote:

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:Is that the one that the BBC fact-checked and found her to have been telling the truth in every instance?

Oh dear we can't have talk like that here. After all it does not fir into the modus operandi.

Bits I watched she came across badly, like they all do. He’s ravenous. But he’s pretty good and they all deserve it, even if I dislike Neil. They spend so much time getting patsy questions that they deserve a grilling.

Speaking of which, awful job again by Corbyn when asked about antisemitism today. He was next to the man shouting it down then ignored it. Just be some sort of normal human, for goodness sake

he suppressed grumpy grandad for the last election, it returned yesterday 

NHS could be a game changer

So the NHS is up for sale then...

What a surprise....

Sturgeon did badly against Andrew Neil, but not as badly as Corbyn did yesterday. Corbyn’s short temper and underlying nastiness was bubbling just under the surface throughout that interview, but he managed to restrain himself from outright shouting (as he’s done before).

Don’t generally have an issue with Neil’s style of interviewing - he’ll usually only interrupt when the interviewee is trying to answer an entirely separate question (as Corbyn did numerous times).

CaledonianCraig wrote:

superflyweight wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:

LordDowlais wrote:

You have Nicola Sturgeon trying to ramp up Scottish independence, as she is all part of this together stronger and staying in the EU, yet she wants to leave Great Britain, how does that work ? SNP should be called the braveheart party, as all they are doing is dragging people along on emotions and nationalism, without taking things like borders and currency into consideration.

I put this to people who want independence, both Welsh and Scottish, do you want the Euro as your currency ?

How does that work? Well she and others of us have seen Westminster's BS first hand from failed promises of 2014. All the garbage that Scotland was a valued partner in the union and then it did not even get a say in any Brexit negotiations - WTF. Scots were told the only way to safeguard EU membership was by voting No in 2014. Many did that and are now left feeling cheated and betrayed. As I see it there are options on the currency despite what Better Together tried saying last time around in 2014. And so what if it were the EURO. Money is money and all gets spent the same way and its virtually on a parity with the pound now too and that is before Boris's Brexit nightmare happens.

The Euro aside, what other currency options would you suggest?  

In terms of the Euro, it's not just about the spending of the actual currency that you need to consider.  If an independent Scotland was to adopt the Euro (either through choice or as a condition of membership of the EU) it would not have full control over its fiscal and monetary policy.  As a result it becomes more difficult to control inflation (by increasing interest rates or by printing less money).  

In addition to that, annual budget rates need to be less than 3% of GDP and debt to GDP ratio needs to be less than 40%.  This would make things very diffcult for a new country with an existing disproportionately high rate of public expenditure.  That means a massive increase in taxes or a massive cut in public spending.        

There are options. In the immediate aftermath of independence I would foresee the pound being kept as the currency for perhaps a year or two whilst the starting up of a new currency is planned for.

Even if RUK was to agree to use of the pound during a transition period, that means that for a "year or two" we would have absolutely no say in monetary or fiscal policy and no control over inflation or interest rates.  That's effectively taxation without representation!  

It's not a problem that's necessarily insurmountable but the SNP are not publicly addressing these issues and no one is making it clear what approach would be taken, how much public finances would be impacted, how any budget deficit would be overcome and how long it would take before any negative impacts could be overcome.  It's no different to the negligence of people who campaigned for Brexit without understanding what that would mean and all the flag waving and marches through Glasgow and Edinburgh are not going to change it.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:Is that the one that the BBC fact-checked and found her to have been telling the truth in every instance?

Don't know - haven't seen that (got the link?), although it would be hard for her to have been telling the 'truth' in all instances - that wasn't the nature of the entire interview.

CaledonianCraig wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:

superflyweight wrote:

Duty281 wrote:The Brexit Party are standing in very few seats in Scotland. They’ll have next to zero impact up there.

Our racists and xenophobes hate the English more than they do the rest of the World.

What trash. Since when did wanting rid of Westminster-rule equate to hating the English?

And could I turn this on its head and look at BJ's anti-Scottish rants such as a pound spent in Clapham being better than a pound spent in Clyde.

Out of interest, Craig, did you enjoy Nicola's car crash interview with Andrew Neil the other night? I almost felt for her...

I guarantee you all will be car crash-esque. Why? Andrew Neil's style. Ask a question and when you are getting an answer talk over the top of them. Height of rudeness.

And did you enjoy last week's four on Question Time as by many people's opinion Nicola Sturgeon came across the best.

No. That's not what Neil did (and I don't even really like him that much) - he asked them specific questions, which they all (naturally) evaded answering while trying to answer a question that he hadn't asked. Typical politicians and about time it was called out.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:Is that the one that the BBC fact-checked and found her to have been telling the truth in every instance?

Found it. You think that makes her look good? Oh, my...

To be clear, however, I'm not suggesting she's any worse than Corbyn was (how awful was that?) or that anyone else would be under that level of challenge.

navyblueshorts wrote:

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:Is that the one that the BBC fact-checked and found her to have been telling the truth in every instance?

Don't know - haven't seen that (got the link?), although it would be hard for her to have been telling the 'truth' in all instances - that wasn't the nature of the entire interview.

Basically this is it:-

Claim: An audience member suggested to the SNP leader that Spain would not allow an independent Scotland to join the EU. Nicola Sturgeon claimed, in response: "...nor has Spain ever said that it would veto the membership of an independent Scotland".
Reality Check: Spanish foreign minister Josep Borrell told Politico in an interview in November 2018 that Spain would have no objection to Scotland re-joining the EU as an independent nation, as long as the independence process from the UK was legally binding.

In the run-up to the Scottish referendum 2014, there was a debate on whether an independent Scotland would be allowed to automatically continue the EU membership.

The then Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, a Conservative, said it wouldn't and it would have to apply for membership from the outside.

He did not, however, say that Spain would block an independent Scotland joining the EU.

Any country that wants to become a member of the bloc requires the unanimous agreement of all existing members before it is allowed to join.

Claim: Nicola Sturgeon said: "Scotland's deficit is falling. It fell by £1bn in the most recent year."
Reality Check: There's a lot of talk about the UK deficit, the shortfall between what the government gets in and what it spends. But the Office for National Statistics has figures that show how this shortfall is broken down across the nations and regions of the UK.

So is Scotland's deficit falling?

One issue that makes this tricky to assess is a disagreement between the Scottish and UK governments on North Sea oil and gas revenues. The Scottish government argues all this revenue should be allocated to Scotland for the purposes of analysing fiscal balances, while the UK government's position is that this revenue should be shared across the UK in proportion to the population.

The ONS publishes a regional breakdown of public sector finances according to either of these measures.

On the Scottish government's measure, "Scotland's deficit" has fallen from 2015-16 to 2016-17, and again from 2016-17 to 2017-18. If you take the UK government's measure, then although the Scottish deficit fell from 2015-16 to 2016-17, it barely changed from 2016-17 to 2017-18.

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:So the NHS is up for sale then...

What a surprise....

Errr, no. While I don't trust BoJo, what exactly is this document? I presume Corbyn has made it publicly available so that someone with independence can look at it?

If there are trade talks with U.S., would you not be surprised if U.S. pharma access to NHS was discussed at such meetings? Does that mean what's being claimed is true? No. BoJo has a trust issue (probably correctly), which means people assume he must have plans to sell the entire NHS.

Anyway, I'm sure there's more to come on this...

superflyweight wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:

superflyweight wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:

LordDowlais wrote:

You have Nicola Sturgeon trying to ramp up Scottish independence, as she is all part of this together stronger and staying in the EU, yet she wants to leave Great Britain, how does that work ? SNP should be called the braveheart party, as all they are doing is dragging people along on emotions and nationalism, without taking things like borders and currency into consideration.

I put this to people who want independence, both Welsh and Scottish, do you want the Euro as your currency ?

How does that work? Well she and others of us have seen Westminster's BS first hand from failed promises of 2014. All the garbage that Scotland was a valued partner in the union and then it did not even get a say in any Brexit negotiations - WTF. Scots were told the only way to safeguard EU membership was by voting No in 2014. Many did that and are now left feeling cheated and betrayed. As I see it there are options on the currency despite what Better Together tried saying last time around in 2014. And so what if it were the EURO. Money is money and all gets spent the same way and its virtually on a parity with the pound now too and that is before Boris's Brexit nightmare happens.

The Euro aside, what other currency options would you suggest?  

In terms of the Euro, it's not just about the spending of the actual currency that you need to consider.  If an independent Scotland was to adopt the Euro (either through choice or as a condition of membership of the EU) it would not have full control over its fiscal and monetary policy.  As a result it becomes more difficult to control inflation (by increasing interest rates or by printing less money).  

In addition to that, annual budget rates need to be less than 3% of GDP and debt to GDP ratio needs to be less than 40%.  This would make things very diffcult for a new country with an existing disproportionately high rate of public expenditure.  That means a massive increase in taxes or a massive cut in public spending.        

There are options. In the immediate aftermath of independence I would foresee the pound being kept as the currency for perhaps a year or two whilst the starting up of a new currency is planned for.

Even if RUK was to agree to use of the pound during a transition period, that means that for a "year or two" we would have absolutely no say in monetary or fiscal policy and no control over inflation or interest rates.  That's effectively taxation without representation!  

It's not a problem that's necessarily insurmountable but the SNP are not publicly addressing these issues and no one is making it clear what approach would be taken, how much public finances would be impacted, how any budget deficit would be overcome and how long it would take before any negative impacts could be overcome.  It's no different to the negligence of people who campaigned for Brexit without understanding what that would mean and all the flag waving and marches through Glasgow and Edinburgh are not going to change it.

First up the Governor of the Bank of England makes the decision - not Westminster. And despite Better Together saying otherwise he said it was perfectly feasible and possible for an independent Scotland to have kept the pound as currency. Now in order for Scotland to create its own currency thereafter the interim period it needs to have things put in place that takes time. How long? Well we will have a better idea if and when the situation arises.

CaledonianCraig wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:Is that the one that the BBC fact-checked and found her to have been telling the truth in every instance?

Don't know - haven't seen that (got the link?), although it would be hard for her to have been telling the 'truth' in all instances - that wasn't the nature of the entire interview.

Basically this is it:-

Claim: An audience member suggested to the SNP leader that Spain would not allow an independent Scotland to join the EU. Nicola Sturgeon claimed, in response: "...nor has Spain ever said that it would veto the membership of an independent Scotland".
Reality Check: Spanish foreign minister Josep Borrell told Politico in an interview in November 2018 that Spain would have no objection to Scotland re-joining the EU as an independent nation, as long as the independence process from the UK was legally binding.

In the run-up to the Scottish referendum 2014, there was a debate on whether an independent Scotland would be allowed to automatically continue the EU membership.

The then Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, a Conservative, said it wouldn't and it would have to apply for membership from the outside.

He did not, however, say that Spain would block an independent Scotland joining the EU.

Any country that wants to become a member of the bloc requires the unanimous agreement of all existing members before it is allowed to join.

Claim: Nicola Sturgeon said: "Scotland's deficit is falling. It fell by £1bn in the most recent year."
Reality Check: There's a lot of talk about the UK deficit, the shortfall between what the government gets in and what it spends. But the Office for National Statistics has figures that show how this shortfall is broken down across the nations and regions of the UK.

So is Scotland's deficit falling?

One issue that makes this tricky to assess is a disagreement between the Scottish and UK governments on North Sea oil and gas revenues. The Scottish government argues all this revenue should be allocated to Scotland for the purposes of analysing fiscal balances, while the UK government's position is that this revenue should be shared across the UK in proportion to the population.

The ONS publishes a regional breakdown of public sector finances according to either of these measures.

On the Scottish government's measure, "Scotland's deficit" has fallen from 2015-16 to 2016-17, and again from 2016-17 to 2017-18. If you take the UK government's measure, then although the Scottish deficit fell from 2015-16 to 2016-17, it barely changed from 2016-17 to 2017-18.

Eh?? What are you on about? The fact check I think you meant to quote from was this one:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/50552295

navyblueshorts wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:So the NHS is up for sale then...

What a surprise....

Errr, no. While I don't trust BoJo, what exactly is this document? I presume Corbyn has made it publicly available so that someone with independence can look at it?

If there are trade talks with U.S., would you not be surprised if U.S. pharma access to NHS was discussed at such meetings? Does that mean what's being claimed is true? No. BoJo has a trust issue (probably correctly), which means people assume he must have plans to sell the entire NHS.

Anyway, I'm sure there's more to come on this...

That seems to be the extent of it, pharmaceutical sales were discussed but their are objections from the UK side. There's barely a story there to be honest, it appears to be noise making trying to drown out the roars of anti-Semitism.

CaledonianCraig wrote:

superflyweight wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:

superflyweight wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:

LordDowlais wrote:

You have Nicola Sturgeon trying to ramp up Scottish independence, as she is all part of this together stronger and staying in the EU, yet she wants to leave Great Britain, how does that work ? SNP should be called the braveheart party, as all they are doing is dragging people along on emotions and nationalism, without taking things like borders and currency into consideration.

I put this to people who want independence, both Welsh and Scottish, do you want the Euro as your currency ?

How does that work? Well she and others of us have seen Westminster's BS first hand from failed promises of 2014. All the garbage that Scotland was a valued partner in the union and then it did not even get a say in any Brexit negotiations - WTF. Scots were told the only way to safeguard EU membership was by voting No in 2014. Many did that and are now left feeling cheated and betrayed. As I see it there are options on the currency despite what Better Together tried saying last time around in 2014. And so what if it were the EURO. Money is money and all gets spent the same way and its virtually on a parity with the pound now too and that is before Boris's Brexit nightmare happens.

The Euro aside, what other currency options would you suggest?  

In terms of the Euro, it's not just about the spending of the actual currency that you need to consider.  If an independent Scotland was to adopt the Euro (either through choice or as a condition of membership of the EU) it would not have full control over its fiscal and monetary policy.  As a result it becomes more difficult to control inflation (by increasing interest rates or by printing less money).  

In addition to that, annual budget rates need to be less than 3% of GDP and debt to GDP ratio needs to be less than 40%.  This would make things very diffcult for a new country with an existing disproportionately high rate of public expenditure.  That means a massive increase in taxes or a massive cut in public spending.        

There are options. In the immediate aftermath of independence I would foresee the pound being kept as the currency for perhaps a year or two whilst the starting up of a new currency is planned for.

Even if RUK was to agree to use of the pound during a transition period, that means that for a "year or two" we would have absolutely no say in monetary or fiscal policy and no control over inflation or interest rates.  That's effectively taxation without representation!  

It's not a problem that's necessarily insurmountable but the SNP are not publicly addressing these issues and no one is making it clear what approach would be taken, how much public finances would be impacted, how any budget deficit would be overcome and how long it would take before any negative impacts could be overcome.  It's no different to the negligence of people who campaigned for Brexit without understanding what that would mean and all the flag waving and marches through Glasgow and Edinburgh are not going to change it.

First up the Governor of the Bank of England makes the decision - not Westminster. And despite Better Together saying otherwise he said it was perfectly feasible and possible for an independent Scotland to have kept the pound as currency. Now in order for Scotland to create its own currency thereafter the interim period it needs to have things put in place that takes time. How long? Well we will have a better idea if and when the situation arises.

It is feasible and possible, but why would you necessarily want to be tied to a currency where you have zero influence over the relevant fiscal and monetary policy?  

I'm sorry, but I find it totally unacceptable to just say we will see how long things might take once we reach a decision and it's crap like that which puts off people who are more cautious about independence.  It's precisely the same kind of crap  as "we'll trade on WTO terms" nonsense being spouted by morons like Farage, Francois and Rees-Mogg.  It's negligent and arrogant that the SNP and others in the Yes movement have still not provided sufficient detail about their plans for post-independent Scotland.  

Salmond and Sturgeon repeatedly claimed that independence could be negotiated and achieved in 18 months(!!!) following the 2014 referendum.  Brexit has shown that the time period will likely be much longer.

Fly

How do you see the SNP's denuclearisation policy affecting negotiations? It's an admirable thing to want and one I fully agree with but can see it being a major sticking point for the rest of the UK.

Not sure it would be a big deal in the event of independence as independent Scotland couldn't insist that RUK scraps Trident. SNP would insist on them being removed from the Clyde, but am fairly sure would agree to a reasonable time-table for RUK to do so.