2019 General Election

First topic message reminder :

The key questions for me:

How many Leave voters still want Brexit;

Of those who do, how many put Brexit before all else;

What damage the Brexit party will do the the Conservatives' hopes of taking Labour leave seats.

GSC wrote:sadly this already has "we lost to brexit, not our own policies/leadership" written all over it

That’s the danger when a cult engulfs a party.

LondonTiger wrote:

Duty281 wrote:Very thin options for Labour in electing their next leader. Starmer probably the best of a poor bunch, but if they end up picking Thornberry or Long-Bailey they’re definitely not going forward.

Starmer won't get the job unless there is a big swing away from the Left within the CLP, even if he is the bookies favourite right now.

Long-Bailey currently a clear second favourite, with Jess Philips and Angela Rayner jockeying for 3rd favourite. Thornberry and Cooper head up the current also rans.

Yes, I think that’s true about Starmer. It’ll take years for power to be removed from Momentum within the Labour Party.

I think Long Bailey, Phillips, Thornberry and Rayner would all be awful choices for Labour. Phillips especially. Cooper wouldn’t be a bad option, though her constituency is a marginal one.

Wonder if there’s any unknown talent to come out of the backbenches? Though thinking about it, the backbench option was what got Labour into this mess!

Well, well, well. Woke up this morning, turned on the news and burst out laughing.

Updated my 'hope' though from a while back: I would never have voted for him in a month of Sundays, but maybe Boris has a large enough majority to tell Francois/Rees-Mogg to **** off and that he'll be sensible re. the realities of Brexit. That he actually has been playing a game to this point and will now govern in a much more enlightened way. Won't hold my breath, but you never know.

Reasons?

1. Brexit. Definitely a major factor. Labour's refusal to understand that was instrumental. Justine Greening made a good, if misunderstood, point last night I think. People badge it about Brexit, but these seismic shifts are more about jobs, immigrants (right or wrong), demise of traditional labour opportunities/communities etc. Labour seem more interested in virtue signalling than real issues, despite what they profess. Yes, they did give us the norm re. education, NHS etc (Magic Grandad couldn't even give a competent performance in front of cameras re. documents alleging US-UK talks on 'selling NHS'), but see 2) and 3).
   Suspect similar, but inverted and more to do with NI as a whole wanting to remain in EU, re. DUP.
   
2. Magic Grandad. Corbyn's magic; just watch him make the Labour party vanish for a generation.
   
3. Labour's Manifesto. Sure, everyone expected them to make large giveaways, but seriously? Hope they don't play poker, because that was a seriously overplayed hand. No-one believed them, or if they did, had visions of the U.S.S.R.
   
4. Lying and ducking a good critique from media not as important as many people think. Or rather, they had higher priorities.
   
5. Andrew Neil eviscerating Magic Grandad.
   
6. Magic Grandad. His past, his obvious contempt for Great Britain and its institutions, his perceived support for the IRA, Hamas etc. His laughable lying, while trying to be clever (Queen's Speech etc) - couldn't even get that right.
   
7. Anti-Semitism and MG's perceived handling of it.
   
8. Balance of left vs. right media.
   
9. Labour's cretinous and stupid refusal to acknowledge that 2017 was, indeed, high-water for them and that moving even further () left was the most stupid strategic error since the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbour. Seriously? They already had their core voters in the bag and moving left was never, ever going to garner floating voters, which is what they needed to move beyond 2017. Idiots.
   

We may as well get used to the Tories, because nothing I've seen/heard recently suggests Labour could run a bath, let alone an opposition party. Even if Corbyn goes, they've been utterly infested (as others have said) by Momentum (anyone remember Militant?) and the ever-present Union influence.
Johnson has more to worry about from mistresses and/or dodgy deals w/ US 'entrepreneurs' than Labour.

navyblueshorts wrote:

Dolphin Ziggler wrote:I’ve seen this. It begs the same question of Labour and Brexit, but I’d suggest they’ve moved.

(649/650 seats):

Counting all parties with over 100,000 votes:

Pro-Brexit (Cons + Brexit + DUP): 14.8m.

Anti-Brexit parties (Lab + LibDem + Green + SNP + Sinn Fein + Plaid + SDLP + Alliance): 16.6m.

Assuming everyone who voted was doing so purely re. Brexit. Doubt that. I certainly didn't vote Green for that reason, so that's one less...

Sigh, the point was that it is a counter argument to “the result clearly shows we want Brexit done/no referendum/some other nonsense.” Id be fully surprised if you were a Brexit voting Green and I’d at least say you’d be one of a tiny amount. I think it probably does balance out well, with errors on both sides.

Sturgeon wants another referendum. But when they lose that one, what will her next trick be?

Speaking of Francois, that was the most moronic comment of the night - when he compared Labour’s red wall coming down to the Berlin Wall coming down.

Labour’s manifesto was utterly laughable and Corbyn must be relieved he’s not in number ten because he wouldn’t have been able to deliver most of it.

Looks like the actual Tory majority will be 88 once Sinn Fein, St Ives and the Speaker is taken into account.

Dolphin Ziggler wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:

Dolphin Ziggler wrote:I’ve seen this. It begs the same question of Labour and Brexit, but I’d suggest they’ve moved.

(649/650 seats):

Counting all parties with over 100,000 votes:

Pro-Brexit (Cons + Brexit + DUP): 14.8m.

Anti-Brexit parties (Lab + LibDem + Green + SNP + Sinn Fein + Plaid + SDLP + Alliance): 16.6m.

Assuming everyone who voted was doing so purely re. Brexit. Doubt that. I certainly didn't vote Green for that reason, so that's one less...

Sigh, the point was that it is a counter argument to “the result clearly shows we want Brexit done/no referendum/some other nonsense.” Id be fully surprised if you were a Brexit voting Green and I’d at least say you’d be one of a tiny amount. I think it probably does balance out well, with errors on both sides.

:sigh: Sorry, that's the pedant in me. I agree. Better?

Duty281 wrote:Sturgeon wants another referendum. But when they lose that one, what will her next trick be?

Good luck to her. Must be annoying having so many MPs, but FA influence on any Indyref2. Bit like 2015. Suck it up. Her and her damned "Government we never voted for" rubbish. Sod off. Consider your absurd number of MPs (cf. actual votes) a concession to the woodwork on your shoulders re. :assumes a whining voice: "A Government we never voted for".

Duty281 wrote:Looks like the actual Tory majority will be 88 once Sinn Fein, St Ives and the Speaker is taken into account.

How many in the ERG?

Duty281 wrote:Speaking of Francois, that was the most moronic comment of the night - when he compared Labour’s red wall coming down to the Berlin Wall coming down.

Labour’s manifesto was utterly laughable and Corbyn must be relieved he’s not in number ten because he wouldn’t have been able to deliver most of it.

Looks like the actual Tory majority will be 88 once Sinn Fein, St Ives and the Speaker is taken into account.

Saw that. Made me laugh out loud. Thought Neil's obvious tone of voice re. its absurdity was hysterical. Then again, this is the same Francois who was banging on previously about how his dad hadn't taken a backward step in the face of Jerry on the D-Day beaches and he wasn't going to do so now in the face of the EU (read Germany again). Who are the poor souls who have him as their constituency MP? Jesus wept.

navyblueshorts wrote:

Dolphin Ziggler wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:

Dolphin Ziggler wrote:I’ve seen this. It begs the same question of Labour and Brexit, but I’d suggest they’ve moved.

(649/650 seats):

Counting all parties with over 100,000 votes:

Pro-Brexit (Cons + Brexit + DUP): 14.8m.

Anti-Brexit parties (Lab + LibDem + Green + SNP + Sinn Fein + Plaid + SDLP + Alliance): 16.6m.

Assuming everyone who voted was doing so purely re. Brexit. Doubt that. I certainly didn't vote Green for that reason, so that's one less...

Sigh, the point was that it is a counter argument to “the result clearly shows we want Brexit done/no referendum/some other nonsense.” Id be fully surprised if you were a Brexit voting Green and I’d at least say you’d be one of a tiny amount. I think it probably does balance out well, with errors on both sides.

:sigh: Sorry, that's the pedant in me. I agree. Better?

Sorry, it’s been a long day. I woke up to the exit poll and have watched the coverage all day. It’s quite depressing!

Duty281 wrote:Sturgeon wants another referendum. But when they lose that one, what will her next trick be?

Don't see them losing it - regardless of current polling levels. Who the hell woud be running the "No" campaign?

The Tories in Scotland ran on their only and No 1 issue which was Vote Tory to stop IndyRef2 and the result? They lost more than half of their seats.

There have now been three GE's since 2015 and in each one in Scotland the resounding victors were the SNP and Brexit vote in Scotland backed the SNP stance and bucked the trend of that of England and Wales. What we keep hearing from unionists is 2014 was a once in a lifetime vote. Firstly, it was not written into the bill for that referendum and secondly it was agreed by both sides that the vote would be abided by unless there was a change in circumstances (words to that effect) and we had that when Scotland voted to remain in the EU and yet are being dragged out of the EU next month.

Lib Dems and Jo Swinson took a hammering for their campaign but in the end they ended up increasing their vote share in every region. Something for Labour to keep in mind if they continue the Corbyn route with a new leader

So only the IndyRef was voted on in Scotland, then? The same way the English abandoned didn’t translate to Scotland, it was just everyone now wanting a referendum?

superflyweight wrote:

Duty281 wrote:Sturgeon wants another referendum. But when they lose that one, what will her next trick be?

Don't see them losing it - regardless of current polling levels.  Who the hell woud be running the "No" campaign?  

I wish I could be cinfident, but half the population will vote No based purely on what football team they support.

based on scotland not wanting to leave the EU via Brexit, we have deduced they want to leave the EU via Indyref 2

CaledonianCraig wrote:The Tories in Scotland ran on their only and No 1 issue which was Vote Tory to stop IndyRef2 and the result? They lost more than half of their seats.

There have now been three GE's since 2015 and in each one in Scotland the resounding victors were the SNP and Brexit vote in Scotland backed the SNP stance and bucked the trend of that of England and Wales. What we keep hearing from unionists is 2014 was a once in a lifetime vote. Firstly, it was not written into the bill for that referendum and secondly it was agreed by both sides that the vote would be abided by unless there was a change in circumstances (words to that effect) and we had that when Scotland voted to remain in the EU and yet are being dragged out of the EU next month.

Yet another post in which you fail to say why Scotland would be better off Independent. Chips, shoulders, bitter and small man syndrome come to mind.

LondonTiger wrote:

Duty281 wrote:Looks like the actual Tory majority will be 88 once Sinn Fein, St Ives and the Speaker is taken into account.

How many in the ERG?

About 20-25, I think.

Dolphin Ziggler wrote:So only the IndyRef was voted on in Scotland, then? The same way the English abandoned didn’t translate to Scotland, it was just everyone now wanting a referendum?

Scotland diversified away from the rest of the UK with devolution and it has continued to drift away. Politically, Scotland has far different tastes to what gets voted on in the rest of the UK. Also different on the EU issue but that falls on totally death ears to the Tories. They think that this election and the last one or two demonstrates Scotland's support for them even though the Tories have been a minority party in Scotland since the 1950s.

Better Together, Cameron and Mundell after the 2014 referendum harped on about Scotland being in a 'Union of Equals' with us being some sort of a partner. Some partner. Totally ignored in Brexit vote. Totally ignored in Brexit talks and totally ignored every time the SNP whips Tories arse. How does that equate exactly to a 'Union of Equals'?

The funny thing about the SNP is that they think that unless they get everything they want then they get to pack up their ball and walk away.
Tons of people don't get the government they want, I don't see them crying like the SNP. London didn't want a Tory government, nor Liverpool, Where's their crying and demanding to leave. Guess what, sometimes you don't get what you vote for. That's how the system works.

With such a big majority I doubt that Boris and the Tories give a toss what the SNP think or want.

super_realist wrote:The funny thing about the SNP is that they think that unless they get everything they want then they get to pack up their ball and walk away.
Tons of people don't get the government they want, I don't see them crying like the SNP. London didn't want a Tory government, nor Liverpool, Where's their crying and demanding to leave. Guess what, sometimes you don't get what you vote for. That's how the system works.

And also most Scottish people yesterday didn’t vote for the SNP, but nearly all Scottish people will be represented in the Westminster Parliament by the SNP.

Soul Requiem wrote:With such a big majority I doubt that Boris and the Tories give a toss what the SNP think or want.

Or the Scottish people.

CaledonianCraig wrote:

Soul Requiem wrote:With such a big majority I doubt that Boris and the Tories give a toss what the SNP think or want.

Or the Scottish people.

:freedom: you remind me of the sketch where the guy cycles from the Highlands all the way to the border, does the finger and then cycles back again.

What is your best reason for wanting independence?

CaledonianCraig wrote:

Soul Requiem wrote:With such a big majority I doubt that Boris and the Tories give a toss what the SNP think or want.

Or the Scottish people.

Nor do the SNP beyond their supporters, that's politics.

Super

For me the SNP argument makes more sense in the long run. When you look at the proportion of years spent under a tory government in the last 50 years their point about not having Scotlands voice heard in Westminster makes sense.

Like you I detest nationalism but at what point do we accept Scotland could follow a different path if it wanted to?

Bearing in mind we now potentially face a choice between English and Scottish nationalism?

McLaren wrote:Super

For me the SNP argument makes more sense in the long run. When you look at the proportion of years spent under a tory government in the last 50 years their point about not having Scotlands voice heard in Westminster makes sense.

Like you I detest nationalism but at what point do we accept Scotland could follow a different path if it wanted to?

Bearing in mind we now potentially face a choice between English and Scottish nationalism?

Yet we voted to stay in the union, so there you go. Can't have it both ways.

So the leg wants to leave the body. Brexit.
And the foot wants to leave the leg. Independent Scotland.
But the foot wants to rejoin the body... around the hip region but with no connecting leg at some time in the near future?

Sounds really painful and awkward to me. Sturgeon (with all that smart legal BS talk) obviously has no medical expertise!

McLaren wrote:Super

For me the SNP argument makes more sense in the long run. When you look at the proportion of years spent under a tory government in the last 50 years their point about not having Scotlands voice heard in Westminster makes sense.

...

The irony is that Scottish Labour was a very influential group inside Labour, providing a number of recent leaders etc. That's all gone.

Duty281 wrote:

LondonTiger wrote:

Duty281 wrote:Looks like the actual Tory majority will be 88 once Sinn Fein, St Ives and the Speaker is taken into account.

How many in the ERG?

About 20-25, I think.

I thought it was a fair bit more. Would be good if BoZo did not have to pander to Baker, JRM, Francois, IDS etc

CaledonianCraig wrote:

Soul Requiem wrote:With such a big majority I doubt that Boris and the Tories give a toss what the SNP think or want.

Or the Scottish people.

Bless...

Pal Joey wrote:So the leg wants to leave the body. Brexit.
And the foot wants to leave the leg. Independent Scotland.
But the foot wants to rejoin the body... around the hip region but with no connecting leg at some time in the near future?

Sounds really painful and awkward to me. Sturgeon (with all that smart legal BS talk) obviously has no medical expertise!

Love it.

So when all is said and done the Tories have a working majority of 88 which is over and beyond what anyone expected, going into yesterday there was a lot of talk about the possibility of another hung parliament but a resounding defeat for Labour who must now move forwards rather than sideways.

At the current time, the only thing stopping the Tories having an extended run in power is Scotland; take away the Scottish seats and we'd have had four straight Tory majorities.

Soul Requiem wrote:So when all is said and done the Tories have a working majority of 88 which is over and beyond what anyone expected, going into yesterday there was a lot of talk about the possibility of another hung parliament but a resounding defeat for Labour who must now move forwards rather than sideways.

At the current time, the only thing stopping the Tories having an extended run in power is Scotland; take away the Scottish seats and we'd have had four straight Tory majorities.

Think we can probably rely on them to move backwards before the penny drops...

navyblueshorts wrote:Well, well, well. Woke up this morning, turned on the news and burst out laughing.

Updated my 'hope' though from a while back: I would never have voted for him in a month of Sundays, but maybe Boris has a large enough majority to tell Francois/Rees-Mogg to **** off and that he'll be sensible re. the realities of Brexit. That he actually has been playing a game to this point and will now govern in a much more enlightened way. Won't hold my breath, but you never know.

Reasons?

1. Brexit. Definitely a major factor. Labour's refusal to understand that was instrumental. Justine Greening made a good, if misunderstood, point last night I think. People badge it about Brexit, but these seismic shifts are more about jobs, immigrants (right or wrong), demise of traditional labour opportunities/communities etc. Labour seem more interested in virtue signalling than real issues, despite what they profess. Yes, they did give us the norm re. education, NHS etc (Magic Grandad couldn't even give a competent performance in front of cameras re. documents alleging US-UK talks on 'selling NHS'), but see 2) and 3).
   Suspect similar, but inverted and more to do with NI as a whole wanting to remain in EU, re. DUP.
   
2. Magic Grandad. Corbyn's magic; just watch him make the Labour party vanish for a generation.
   
3. Labour's Manifesto. Sure, everyone expected them to make large giveaways, but seriously? Hope they don't play poker, because that was a seriously overplayed hand. No-one believed them, or if they did, had visions of the U.S.S.R.
   
4. Lying and ducking a good critique from media not as important as many people think. Or rather, they had higher priorities.
   
5. Andrew Neil eviscerating Magic Grandad.
   
6. Magic Grandad. His past, his obvious contempt for Great Britain and its institutions, his perceived support for the IRA, Hamas etc. His laughable lying, while trying to be clever (Queen's Speech etc) - couldn't even get that right.
   
7. Anti-Semitism and MG's perceived handling of it.
   
8. Balance of left vs. right media.
   
9. Labour's cretinous and stupid refusal to acknowledge that 2017 was, indeed, high-water for them and that moving even further () left was the most stupid strategic error since the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbour. Seriously? They already had their core voters in the bag and moving left was never, ever going to garner floating voters, which is what they needed to move beyond 2017. Idiots.
   

We may as well get used to the Tories, because nothing I've seen/heard recently suggests Labour could run a bath, let alone an opposition party. Even if Corbyn goes, they've been utterly infested (as others have said) by Momentum (anyone remember Militant?) and the ever-present Union influence.
Johnson has more to worry about from mistresses and/or dodgy deals w/ US 'entrepreneurs' than Labour.

Refreshing and unbiased (it seems) read, thank you. A lot better than the kicking and screaming via social media, it's insufferable as always.

Pal Joey wrote:So the leg wants to leave the body. Brexit.
And the foot wants to leave the leg. Independent Scotland.
But the foot wants to rejoin the body... around the hip region but with no connecting leg at some time in the near future?

Sounds really painful and awkward to me. Sturgeon (with all that smart legal BS talk) obviously has no medical expertise!

Brilliant! She's insufferable too, would prefer to hear less of the likes of Sturgeon and Corbyn, but it seems they're the love children of Sky and BBC news.

So what are people expecting from the conservatives then. What are the plus points I've got to look forward to?

No 7&1/2 wrote:So what are people expecting from the conservatives then. What are the plus points I've got to look forward to?

No Jeremy Corbyn

After failing to get people to vote tactically yesterday, the ‘People’s Vote’ campaign has now given up any hope of a second referendum. I suppose this group’s greatest achievement was when they managed to get 1 in every 32 Remain voters to attend a day out in London.

No 7&1/2 wrote:So what are people expecting from the conservatives then. What are the plus points I've got to look forward to?

No Corbyn? Sorry.
I don't think it's easy to know. Is Johnson is a card carrying right winger? Up to now, it's hard to see he's taken a lot very seriously. Does he mean a lot of what he's said in the past? Or has it all been a jape up to now?
If one believes he's serious re. comments on 'letter boxes' etc etc, why not be consistent and believe he means his recent remarks on seeking to do right by those traditional Labour voters who voted Tory last night? We can't do anything but wait and see.
I think he's got a real problem with Brexit insofar as confronting the reality of what that'll actually mean. I suppose loads may be wrong and it'll actually be better than many hope. Again, we'll see. I do think though, that someone had to enact the outcome of the 2016 referendum; anything less was the wrong decision (for all I philosophically disagree with Brexit) and something the LibDems got wrong and Labour couldn't work out.

Duty281 wrote:After failing to get people to vote tactically yesterday, the ‘People’s Vote’ campaign has now given up any hope of a second referendum. I suppose this group’s greatest achievement was when they managed to get 1 in every 32 Remain voters to attend a day out in London.

You sure about that? I've seen that people are protesting, you know, the usual biatching "not my PM!", "not my gov...", etc. I'm expecting a hopeless investigation for Russian collusion at some point, in fact the accusations began late last night.

So does that mean no one really knows? I assume super you voted conservative?

No 7&1/2 wrote:So does that mean no one really knows? I assume super you voted conservative?

How on Earth can one know? All party Manifestos are propaganda designed to get power and to be used as toilet paper thereafter. No-one believes (well, Saint Jeremy's acolytes do) a word contained in any of them. Call that the legacy of the post-Iraq era, but had been building for some time before that ugly issue raised its head.
We reap what we sow. We returned Bliar for a third term knowing Iraq was a lie. Expenses anyone? We deserve the politicians and Governments we have.

So no one knows what they voted for? Or are prepared to say what they voted for? Who did you vote for navy. Why did you vote.

No 7&1/2 wrote:So no one knows what they voted for? Or are prepared to say what they voted for? Who did you vote for navy. Why did you vote.

Me? I voted Green. Best of a bad bunch round my way and a safe Tory seat. Greens support electoral reform (priority for me now) and I'm suddenly fed up to the back teeth of enjoying a pack of crisps (or something similar) and then asking why they're sold in a packet that's some sh!t plastic that's either completely unrecyclable or almost so.
Was close to spoiling ballot by writing a rant re. a pox on all their houses, even if that would have been only ~30 seconds worth of satisfaction.

No 7&1/2 wrote:So does that mean no one really knows? I assume super you voted conservative?

Certainly not. My seat was a straight fight between Lib Dem and the repulsive SNP.
The SNP lost easily.

As I said earlier, it's a real tragedy there could only be one loser in this who debacle.

Ok. So we're all of the opinion that we're losing here!

good to see McCluskey pinning the blame everywhere else when in reality he is as culpable as anyone for the failure that was Corbyns Labour

GSC wrote:good to see McCluskey pinning the blame everywhere else when in reality he is as culpable as anyone for the failure that was Corbyns Labour

Why should so many people be concerned that a party 'failed'?  It didn't fail.  It just simply didn't appeal to the voting public.  The public didn't want the policies.  But the public still voted, and they got what they wanted.  No need for anger at or sympathy for a thing called Labour.  If it wanted to be more appealing at this moment in history it would have to have been more like the Conservatives.  And what the hell is the point in that? - mimic the enemy just to get elected?  No way! scream traditionalist party activists.  We must be against that which the Tories are for!

Sometimes I think commentators feel that a party's role is to shape the mind of the electorate - and therefore 'fail' is the grade when they lose seats.  But my opinion is that a party should listen to the mind of the electorate.  The UK electorate has been confirming over and over and over again that they want Brexit to happen and a new chapter to begin.  The politicians can fret and moan, and resist all they like but that was the clear message.  And yet all Labour and the Lib Dems could advance is that the majority Brexiteers were simply wrong in their choice and should be coaxed to change their mind.  Labour lost seats because it wouldn't change its mind and accept that many of its natural voters wanted Brexit.  But again, that couldn't happen because the arch enemy Conservatives stole that platform.  
No tears for Labour.  Labour voters voted for other ideals....and won.