Another Drive4show 'Anything goes' thread

[super_realist]

First topic message reminder :

Kobe beef isn't that a real thing.Not familiar with the gent but Basketball is a great spectator sport in that there is a score every few seconds and always a result .
Lowry has done very  well to say the least in view of the stick he gets.Good lad

Do you think so? It's certainly a great sport to play, but it's pretty boring to watch. 75% of the game is irrelevant. It only becomes slightly interesting in the last quarter when the match is won and lost. I thinks that's the problem with American sport. They concentrate so much on there being frequent scoring, that it becomes routine and lacks excitement when they do score.
I prefer moments of brilliance in sports rather than just constant routine points.

[dynamark]

Fair enough SR but we will be able to take a look at the numbers and how we went about tackling it/consequences .

[navyblueshorts]

Testing is largely irrelevant in the general population because if you have it theres naf all you can do about it,As is happening test the sick and the front line staff when you can then act on the information.
Thank goodness we got the right govt to handle this
Hope all are well and positive

Apart from post hoc analysis of the epidemic, which might be useful. May be other reasons that it's still worth testing. Still, depends on testing capacity.

[navyblueshorts]

Isn't widely held that we are a few weeks behind Italy and other European countries?  And as it's not some sort of instantaneous death, we will see the increases over coming weeks. Whatever it is, it's still pretty grim, and it seems the govt haven't handled it that well, at least initially. Only a few days ago, the off the record briefing they like had Johnson claiming it was all media driven.

They're handling it fine. No-one knows what the best policy is, but at least ours is driven by virologists, epidemiologists, behavioural scientists and clinicians on best current data.

I hope the politicians remember what precendence has now been set when thousands start to die from the common flu (again) next winter.

Not sure what you're implying.

[Shotrock]

In other news, looks like Bernie's ship has sailed. Good riddance!

[kwinigolfer]

In other news, looks like Bernie's ship has sailed. Good riddance!

Bernie was always unelectable, Sr, and it's now looking as if his challenge to Hillary in 2016 was merely a mirage, caused by anti-woman-President factions. But hopefully he'll ask some of the right questions to help Biden - terrible choice of candidates. Just when I thought the comprehensive failures of my generation somehow had the potential to be rectified.

[Shotrock]

And his unelectability (is that even a word?) is precisely why I wanted him out of this race. Who know where it goes from here, but Biden is the best chance to swing any and all moderate votes.

[I'm never wrong]

Sr & Kwini :- could Trump invoke any powers to postpone the election due to the "Chinese virus" (as he called it)? I'm thinking could he use that as an excuse to extend this term?

[kwinigolfer]

Sr & Kwini :- could Trump invoke any powers to postpone the election due to the "Chinese virus" (as he called it)? I'm thinking could he use that as an excuse to extend this term?

I've heard that speculated, Putinesque if you like.
I can't imagine the US people would stand for it, but you never know.
Doling out $1,000 cheques willy nilly could turn electorates' heads as well.

[pedro]

Isn't widely held that we are a few weeks behind Italy and other European countries?  And as it's not some sort of instantaneous death, we will see the increases over coming weeks. Whatever it is, it's still pretty grim, and it seems the govt haven't handled it that well, at least initially. Only a few days ago, the off the record briefing they like had Johnson claiming it was all media driven.

They're handling it fine. No-one knows what the best policy is, but at least ours is driven by virologists, epidemiologists, behavioural scientists and clinicians on best current data.

I hope the politicians remember what precendence has now been set when thousands start to die from the common flu (again) next winter.

Not sure what you're implying.

Proportions. Or cost/benefit if you like. In what the government(s) are doing to prevent/mitigate spreading of the virus. Winterflu kills thousands each year and that could be avoided as well - if we wanted. Yet jabs are not even compulsary.

As of now, with the corona, we are heading towards a global recession and mass unemployment. You’d have to balance that against x number of additional deaths (of people mainly outside the workforce anyway).

Lets say we can save a few hundreds or even thousands lives by driving the country into recession - what do we do next year when people start dying from the flu?

[BlueCoverman]

We offer them flu jabs like we always have, and hopefully save their lives.

This isn't the flu, if only it was but it is brutally more serious. I think most people are beginning to grasp that now.

[pedro]

Isn't widely held that we are a few weeks behind Italy and other European countries?  And as it's not some sort of instantaneous death, we will see the increases over coming weeks. Whatever it is, it's still pretty grim, and it seems the govt haven't handled it that well, at least initially. Only a few days ago, the off the record briefing they like had Johnson claiming it was all media driven.

They're handling it fine. No-one knows what the best policy is, but at least ours is driven by virologists, epidemiologists, behavioural scientists and clinicians on best current data.

I hope the politicians remember what precendence has now been set when thousands start to die from the common flu (again) next winter.

It's incredibly naive to suggest that the two are even slightly analogous. Winter flu happens every year, its not something which can be stopped. The government already offer flu jabs. Why should they compensate people for getting a natural disease?
Surely you are not so naive you can't see the difference between this and flu? This isn't a precedent in the slightest in regards to flu.
Even though both have similar effects for the healthy and a very good recovery rate for both, you'd have to be stupid to think the impact of winter flu is as deserving of government help as this current situation. You are correct about the irrational panic though.

Yes winter flu can be stopped. If the country is locked down. Or jabs were compulsary. Or those at risk of dying stay home. But we don’t arse doing any of this. (Btw, influenza also mutates.) Result: thousands die each year. Where’s the panic?
And as far as I know people at risk of dying from corona can also do a lot of things to avoid getting it. Like washing hands and staying home until a vaccine is out. Most people at risk are not in the workforce so this shouldn’t be a huge deal.

Yes, I know there are a number of unknowns related to the corona, but my question is just whether this outweights driving the world into recession?

[pedro]

We offer them flu jabs like we always have, and hopefully save their lives.

This isn't the flu, if only it was but it is brutally more serious. I think most people are beginning to grasp that now.  

Of course it’s worse than the flu.
But I’d like to see a cost benefit of asking those at risk to stay home and wait for the vaccine vs. driving the world into recession.
The rest of us are probably better off being exposed to it to get immunity, hopefully also against a possible mutation in the autumn. AFAIK that’s what got us through H1N1 (swine flu).

[BlueCoverman]

Do we know yet if once exposed we definitely have immunity?

[super_realist]

Do we know yet if once exposed we definitely have immunity?

There's no guarantee, but other Coronavirus' have resulted in people building an immunity.

[beninho]

A lack of investment in IT over the years, has meant many of my staff still use desktop computers. We have no licenses to allow home working, so still expect staff to travel in and work at work. It's pretty poor.

[George1507]

Although the virus is different, there are lots of similarities in the way Covid-19 is being transmitted with the 1918-19 'Spanish flu' outbreak. That one infected 25% of the world's population, and killed 17-30 million people. That's roughly the same number that died in WWI.

So here we are 101 years later, with a population that isn't ground down after years of war, and the ability to communicate messages across the globe within minutes, but expecting an infection rate of 80%?

One of my professors at university theorized that the biggest single factor in WWI was that the Germans and Austrians suffered Spanish flu sooner than the Allied armies, so that their war effort was severely compromised.

[navyblueshorts]

Isn't widely held that we are a few weeks behind Italy and other European countries?  And as it's not some sort of instantaneous death, we will see the increases over coming weeks. Whatever it is, it's still pretty grim, and it seems the govt haven't handled it that well, at least initially. Only a few days ago, the off the record briefing they like had Johnson claiming it was all media driven.

They're handling it fine. No-one knows what the best policy is, but at least ours is driven by virologists, epidemiologists, behavioural scientists and clinicians on best current data.

I hope the politicians remember what precendence has now been set when thousands start to die from the common flu (again) next winter.

It's incredibly naive to suggest that the two are even slightly analogous. Winter flu happens every year, its not something which can be stopped. The government already offer flu jabs. Why should they compensate people for getting a natural disease?
Surely you are not so naive you can't see the difference between this and flu? This isn't a precedent in the slightest in regards to flu.
Even though both have similar effects for the healthy and a very good recovery rate for both, you'd have to be stupid to think the impact of winter flu is as deserving of government help as this current situation. You are correct about the irrational panic though.

Yes winter flu can be stopped. If the country is locked down. Or jabs were compulsary. Or those at risk of dying stay home. But we don’t arse doing any of this. (Btw, influenza also mutates.) Result: thousands die each year. Where’s the panic?
And as far as I know people at risk of dying from corona can also do a lot of things to avoid getting it. Like washing hands and staying home until a vaccine is out. Most people at risk are not in the workforce so this shouldn’t be a huge deal.

Yes, I know there are a number of unknowns related to the corona, but my question is just whether this outweights driving the world into recession?

It's an interesting point. Think many would say we don't know enough about this novel CV though. If it becomes seasonal a la influenza, maybe that's exactly what we'll see w/ it in future.

[navyblueshorts]

Do we know yet if once exposed we definitely have immunity?

Unknown. Almost certainly the case, but length of subsequent immunity can vary quite a lot I think. If it becomes a persistent human pathogen, subject to antigenic variation, then we may have to get used to this.

[navyblueshorts]

Although the virus is different, there are lots of similarities in the way Covid-19 is being transmitted with the 1918-19 'Spanish flu' outbreak. That one infected 25% of the world's population, and killed 17-30 million people. That's roughly the same number that died in WWI.

So here we are 101 years later, with a population that isn't ground down after years of war, and the ability to communicate messages across the globe within minutes, but expecting an infection rate of 80%?

Ease of travel, in general, and of global travel, in particular now cf. then.

One of my professors at university theorized that the biggest single factor in WWI was that the Germans and Austrians suffered Spanish flu sooner than the Allied armies, so that their war effort was severely compromised.

Don't think that holds any water. They were dead in the water in 1918, and especially after the Kaiserschlacht failed to break the Aliies on the Western Front.

[super_realist]

Mac very quiet. Perhaps his hooky Internet connection has been discovered amongst all the self isolation.

[McLaren]

Winterflu kills thousands each year and that could be avoided as well - if we wanted. Yet jabs are not even compulsary.

The difference with corona virus is that hundreds of thousands or millions could die. It makes perfect sense to damage the economy in the short term to avoid the worst case scenario.

[super_realist]

This ought to be the stimulus for people to get themselves healthier and in better shape, but you can guarantee that those in most need of doing so simply won't bother.

[McLaren]

Of course it’s worse than the flu.
But I’d like to see a cost benefit of asking those at risk to stay home and wait for the vaccine vs. driving the world into recession.
The rest of us are probably better off being exposed to it to get immunity, hopefully also against a possible mutation in the autumn. AFAIK that’s what got us through H1N1 (swine flu).

As it stands the predictions for death rates in the over 70's stands at 5-9% of those infected, with 25% of cases requiring hospitalization (Imperial college modelling, https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk:8443/bitstream/10044/1/77482/5/Imperial%20College%20COVID19%20NPI%20modelling%2016-03-2020.pdf). I think there are just under 10 million people over 70 in the uk (https://www.statista.com/statistics/281174/uk-population-by-age/).

If even 50% of the over 70's became infected then we would have roughly 250000 deaths and 1.25 million people needing hospital beds.

(And the 60-69 group has a death rate of those infected of 2.2%)

If no actions are taken the model predicts 80% of the population would become infected and 1/2 a million people die. The two solutions offered are mitigation and suppression, where suppression aims for a R0 < 1.

Here is a paragraph from their conclusions. ( https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk:8443/bitstream/10044/1/77482/5/Imperial%20College%20COVID19%20NPI%20modelling%2016-03-2020.pdf )

Overall, our results suggestthat population-wide social distancing applied to the population as a whole
would have the largest impact; and in combination with other interventions – notably home isolation
of cases and school and university closure – has the potential to suppress transmission below the
threshold of R=1 required to rapidly reduce case incidence. A minimum policy for effective suppression


is therefore population-wide social distancing combined with home isolation of cases and school and
university closure.
To avoid a rebound in transmission, these policies will need to be maintained until large stocks of
vaccine are available to immunise the population – which could be 18 months or more. Adaptive
hospital surveillance-based triggers for switching on and off population-wide social distancing and
school closure offer greater robustness to uncertainty than fixed duration interventions and can be
adapted for regional use (e.g. at the state level in the US). Given local epidemics are not perfectly
synchronised, local policies are also more efficient and can achieve comparable levels of suppression
to national policies while being in force for a slightly smaller proportion of the time. However, we
estimate that for a national GB policy, social distancing would need to be in force for at least 2/3 of
the time (for R0=2.4, see Table 4) until a vaccine was available.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.25561/77482

It really is worth reading this paper. It gives an insight into how serious this is and just how long the isolation measures are going to have to last. (periodically over up to 18 months until a vaccine is available)

[navyblueshorts]

This ought to be the stimulus for people to get themselves healthier and in better shape, but you can guarantee that those in most need of doing so simply won't bother.

Maybe. Hard to reverse ageing though.

[navyblueshorts]

Good post, Mac. Only the DOI link in your quoted paragraph appears to work though.

[Soul Requiem]

There's a post doing the rounds on Facebook that sums up the population quite well, the medical professionals who have the highest possible training in this country are being dismissed in favour of hearsay from nobodies;

‘I’m so relieved now, as I have decided not to listen to government advice or 111, because Melanie on Facebook who lives a few doors down from me, turns out to be microbiologist, national economical expert, housing advisor, mortgage guru, GP and national pandemic specialist .... who’d have thought? Only last week she was claiming income support for her 5 kids. Goes to show, never judge a book by its cover!!..

[super_realist]

This ought to be the stimulus for people to get themselves healthier and in better shape, but you can guarantee that those in most need of doing so simply won't bother.

Maybe. Hard to reverse ageing though.

Wasn't really what I was meaning, you could get a 75 year old who could survive no problem or you get get a fat, diabetes type two smoker who it will kill.

[beninho]

Duncan Smith reported as saying bringing in a universal basic income would be a disincentive to work. Isn't that the actual point of bringing it in on a short term basis? What a tool.

[McLaren]

The pdf should be on the DOI link. Maybe the address I had for the pdf only works on the computer I had it open on.

[Soul Requiem]

Duncan Smith reported as saying bringing in a universal basic income would be a disincentive to work. Isn't that the actual point of bringing it in on a short term basis? What a tool.

How do you propose to feed and care for the nation then?

[beninho]

People who are unable to work due to the impacts of the virus on the economy as well as closing all childcare, should still receive some form of remuneration. In order for them to carry on with a basic level of income instead of potentially forcing themselves out to work, when advice is otherwise.

[McLaren]

I am not sure if they are just ignoring the advice from epidemiologists or don't want to admit what that advice entails but the Government has been shockingly quiet on how this effects us over the next year or so. For starters herd immunity from infection by the actual virus is not an option, too many people would die (500000 in UK) and a vaccine still has to go through all the processes of bringing a drug to market, that will take around 18 months.

If this virus follows roughly the same track as 1918 H1N1 we could see a fall in infections in the summer followed by horrendous rates in the autumn/winter. Social distancing and other suppression measures will have to be carried out in waves until a vaccine is available to avoid this. At a minimum the government must be aware that a year long strategy is needed and that it must be communicated now. Without knowing how the virus will mutate, rates of acquired immunity, reinfection rates, actual death rates etc it has to be assumed that we are not returning to normal until the vaccine becomes available.

Why aren't the government open with people about this fact?

[Soul Requiem]

I am not sure if they are just ignoring the advice from epidemiologists or don't want to admit what that advice entails but the Government has been shockingly quiet on how this effects us over the next year or so. For starters herd immunity from infection by the actual virus is not an option, too many people would die (500000 in UK) and a vaccine still has to go through all the processes of bringing a drug to market, that will take around 18 months.

If this virus follows roughly the same track as 1918 H1N1 we could see a fall in infections in the summer followed by horrendous rates in the autumn/winter. Social distancing and other suppression measures will have to be carried out in waves until a vaccine is available to avoid this. At a minimum the government must be aware that a year long strategy is needed and that it must be communicated now. Without knowing how the virus will mutate, rates of acquired immunity, reinfection rates, actual death rates etc it has to be assumed that we are not returning to normal until the vaccine becomes available.

Why aren't the government open with people about this fact?

So you want even more social panic?

[McLaren]

There is no need for panic. If we know there are measures that work and that need to be taken then better preparation can be carried out. For example any down time in the summer months can be used to more sensibly prepare for the autumn/winter.

[Soul Requiem]

There is no need for panic but people still do it, have you completely ignored what's been happening?

[super_realist]

I am not sure if they are just ignoring the advice from epidemiologists or don't want to admit what that advice entails but the Government has been shockingly quiet on how this effects us over the next year or so. For starters herd immunity from infection by the actual virus is not an option, too many people would die (500000 in UK) and a vaccine still has to go through all the processes of bringing a drug to market, that will take around 18 months.

If this virus follows roughly the same track as 1918 H1N1 we could see a fall in infections in the summer followed by horrendous rates in the autumn/winter. Social distancing and other suppression measures will have to be carried out in waves until a vaccine is available to avoid this. At a minimum the government must be aware that a year long strategy is needed and that it must be communicated now. Without knowing how the virus will mutate, rates of acquired immunity, reinfection rates, actual death rates etc it has to be assumed that we are not returning to normal until the vaccine becomes available.

Why aren't the government open with people about this fact?

Because Mac there are numerous ways of handling such outbreaks and none of us is qualified to say what is best. Furthermore I do find it funny that people expect to be constantly updated as to what the plans are of a government. Why would anyone expect to be given all the details when everything is so uncertain? Isn't that the problem that the hysterical media has caused? I think it's only sensible if the government keeps information close to their chest unless they can be certain about what to do with it, don't you?

You should probably also realise Mac that cases in China ( if we are to believe the reports) have dramatically reduced, so how is it they are managing to recover without a vaccine, but we can't?

[McLaren]

Are you saying more harm would come if people are made to panic vs the harm that would come from trying to reduce the effects of the virus in the long term?

It is surely better to admit that depending on how the data goes from countries ahead of us like china, we might be looking at long term suppression activities.

[McLaren]

Super

The point is you have to change things now. Remember that China and other SE Asian countries had infrastructure and planning left over from MERs, SARs and Swine flu. We were not in such a good position. If there is the possibility of another wave of infection later in the year then we need to start doing something about it now. If the model for covid was too negative and it does disappear in the next few months then the worst that has happened is that the country is better prepared for the next pandemic whenever that happens.

At a minimum the government could set out a more formal plan for social distancing and testing for the next wave.

[beninho]

People want information rather then leaked info from government sources to journalists to be put in websites and twitter.

Its testing the water, and causing concerns. It's also not good enough. Same with any minister advising policy via columns behind a paywall as handcock did.

[super_realist]

Super

The point is you have to change things now. Remember that China and other SE Asian countries had infrastructure and planning left over from MERs, SARs and Swine flu. We were not in such a good position. If there is the possibility of another wave of infection later in the year then we need to start doing something about it now. If the model for covid was too negative and it does disappear in the next few months then the worst that has happened is that the country is better prepared for the next pandemic whenever that happens.

At a minimum the government could set out a more formal plan for social distancing and testing for the next wave.

What would someone with no expertise like you suggest? How do you know they haven't got this going on behind the scenes?

[McLaren]

People want information rather then leaked info from government sources to journalists to be put in websites and twitter.

Its testing the water, and causing concerns. It's also not good enough. Same with any minister advising policy via columns behind a paywall as handcock did.

And worse, they are using advice from a think tank. If people are not aware think tanks are snake oil salesmen masquerading as scientific institutions. They are ideological and do not employ scientific methods. This "behavioral unit" or whatever it is called is an utter joke. Might as well ask the PR team of any political party what to do about a virus outbreak.

[McLaren]

Super

I am no epidemiologist but I have studied enough immunology to understand some of the scientific literature.

[Soul Requiem]

Are you saying more harm would come if people are made to panic vs the harm that would come from trying to reduce the effects of the virus in the long term?

It is surely better to admit that depending on how the data goes from countries ahead of us like china, we might be looking at long term suppression activities.

I am at this moment in time happy to admit that I lack the qualifications to be making such decisions as do you. The government have said that these measures may last for 18 months.

[super_realist]

People want information rather then leaked info from government sources to journalists to be put in websites and twitter.

Its testing the water, and causing concerns. It's also not good enough. Same with any minister advising policy via columns behind a paywall as handcock did.

And worse, they are using advice from a think tank. If people are not aware think tanks are snake oil salesmen masquerading as scientific institutions. They are ideological and do not employ scientific methods. This "behavioral unit" or whatever it is called is an utter joke. Might as well ask the PR team of any political party what to do about a virus outbreak.

They are taking advice from the CMO and respected experts. I'm seriously glad they aren't taking advice from a bus riding, pinnacle using nobody like you.

[super_realist]

Super

I am no epidemiologist but I have studied enough immunology to understand some of the scientific literature.

And you claim that this gives you greater knowledge than all the government advisers? Sure. When have you ever studied Immunology?

You're simply not in a position to make comment on how the government is handling this because you have zero expertise.

[beninho]

So, can you only criticise something if you are an expert?

Anyone, can hold a view on how they think the government is handling the situation.

[Soul Requiem]

So, can you only criticise something if you are an expert?

Anyone, can hold a view on how they think the government is handling the situation.

In this case pretty much yes, there are people all over the place making uneducated statements based on zero knowledge.

[super_realist]

So, can you only criticise something if you are an expert?

Anyone, can hold a view on how they think the government is handling the situation.

You can make comment, but Mac is making some quite ridiculous statement as if he knows better than the government, whilst making absurd claims such as "they are getting their advice from think tanks".
Who would I rather take advice off? The government, or Mac. Of course you can have opinion, but when you make a claim that you know better, and you're just a peasant from a tenement in Edinburgh then don't expect your opinions to be taken seriously.

[beninho]

But there are also people blindly accepting everything the government has said and done.

Government's should be held to account, even during these moments. I think blindly accepting is worse then questioning, especially when you can compare it to others.

[beninho]

So, can you only criticise something if you are an expert?

Anyone, can hold a view on how they think the government is handling the situation.

You can make comment, but Mac is making some quite ridiculous statement as if he knows better than the government, whilst making absurd claims such as "they are getting their advice from think tanks".
Who would I rather take advice off? The government, or Mac. Of course you can have opinion, but when you make a claim that you know better, and you're just a peasant from a tenement in Edinburgh then don't expect your opinions to be taken seriously.

I don't think he's asking anyone to take his advice, that would be daft. He is questioning the way thinks are being handled by the government. That us fine.

Don't think he's said he knows better then anyone though. I may be wrong.

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