The Covid-19 serious chat thread

[RDW]

First topic message reminder :

A thread set up to house the more serious chat relating to the global pandemic.

Nothing has changed in what we expect from discussions on here though:

- Please treat each other with respect
- Avoid hyperbole and fake news
- This thread shouldn't be used for a political soapbox, but political discussion will likely happen. See point 1!

A reminder that we have a community thread here for people to vent, look for help and all round support each other. https://www.606v2.com/t69506-the-covid-19-community-thread#3896653

[lostinwales]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52192604

PM in a very bad way. Dominic Raab set to step in.

I didn't think I would ever say this, but I wish BoJo well and a speedy recovery.

Raab, is the idiot ex-Trade Secretary who didn't realise that the Dover - France crossing was massively important to our trade with Europe. What hope have we got with him running the show.

Insane. We are so keen for quite possibly the worst PM for many years to resume his position because the alternative is even worse.

[Duty281]

I don't think Raab is an idiot just because of one silly comment. He's clearly very intelligent in an academic sense. Also think it's far too early to judge Johnson's tenure and compare him against other PMs (he'd have to go some way to be worse than Theresa!).

I hope we all wish the best for the Prime Minister in his present plight on a basis of humanity, regardless of his politics.

[dyrewolfe]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52192604

PM in a very bad way. Dominic Raab set to step in.

I didn't think I would ever say this, but I wish BoJo well and a speedy recovery.

Raab, is the idiot ex-Trade Secretary who didn't realise that the Dover - France crossing was massively important to our trade with Europe. What hope have we got with him running the show.

Insane. We are so keen for quite possibly the worst PM for many years to resume his position because the alternative is even worse.

Agreed. Keir Starmer would be far worse!

I don't think Raab is an idiot just because of one silly comment. He's clearly very intelligent in an academic sense. Also think it's far too early to judge Johnson's tenure and compare him against other PMs (he'd have to go some way to be worse than Theresa!).

I hope we all wish the best for the Prime Minister in his present plight on a basis of humanity, regardless of his politics.

Well said!

Quite frankly, I think politics has to take a back seat until this is over. Name-calling and mud-slinging serves no purpose, until some semblance of normality returns.

[WELL-PAST-IT]

Did Mercedes really design those ventilators or did they make use of proprietary blueprints that Smith's made available to anyone who asked?


Meanwhile, reassuring that our piddly little state has broken all monthly records for gun and ammo sales, whilst Iowa is closing essential retailers which apparently don't include purveyors of "adult sex toys" - perhaps to distinguish their restriction from teenage sex toys?
MAGA

Kwinigolfer, I believe that in conjunction with scientists from University Hospital London, they took and old design that was out of date and no longer used by the NHS and modernised it and made it able to be produced in great numbers and to be able to be used by the majority of patients who would otherwise need a respirator. It pumps oxygen into the lungs under pressure and removes the nitrogen allowing people to breathe without the full respirator which the world is short of.

As to worse than Elon Musk - Phillip Green anyone.

[Guest]

Just thought I'd give a quick update - I think I'm finally free of symptoms today. Still feel drained and a bit worn out, but cough has finally disappeared and breathing is back to normal for the first time today, as far as I can tell. I think symptoms started around the 14th or 15th of March for me, but only really registered as 'worrying' around midweek of the next. I started feeling better at the beginning of April and now I think I'm probably 'free', or at least really out of the woods now. Given that it apparently took 3 weeks for my relative to recover - from far worse symptoms - and another relative is going through the exact same as him, only he is right in the midst of the storm so to speak, I don't want to assume I have had 'it', but it does seem the case. Either way I will not be taking any risks or assuming I am now 'immune' at all. It sounds like I have been incredibly lucky based on the symptoms I have been told about.

My thoughts and prayers are with everyone at this time.

[Guest]

It might do, but the easiest way to improve the NHS is for Britain to take better collective care of itself. It is currently crippled by issues relating to obesity, a completely preventable condition.
Sadly most Brits are too fat, lazy and feckless to do anything about that.

You could say that and put everything on the idiots who drink and smoke too much and just eat crap. But then we all pay for that too. If they are not educated well enough to look after themselves, don't have opportunities because of less investment then they won'd do as well. The blame doesn't just lie with them.

Smokers and drinkers are already massively taxed. You don't need to be educated to know what bad food is and it is not only the lower classes who are fat. I visited a cardiac specialist a few months back and he was massively overweight.
You cannot blame anyone else for an individual being obese unless it is a child.

I worked as a therapist for 13 years and while self care and self restraint are absolutely great ways to deal with nutrition, the number of people with eating disorders I worked with would astonish some people. Not every eating disorder is under eating. Childhood and early years abuse plays a huge role in binge eating disorder and similar behaviours which we'd call 'comfort eating'.

It's best to remember that things are rarely - if ever - as simple as they seem on the surface. As you say, it is not only the 'poor' who overeat and it is rarely, if ever, due to a failure to understand nutritional information. Moralising on issues of health have little basis in the modern world. They simply don't have any bearing on those who actually need medical or psychological help. I'm not overly interested in blaming myself, but rather improving, but either way blaming individuals for mental health problems - particularly when rooted in early life trauma - is totally counter productive.

Off topic, I know, but worth responding to I feel.

[lostinwales]

I don't think Raab is an idiot just because of one silly comment. He's clearly very intelligent in an academic sense. Also think it's far too early to judge Johnson's tenure and compare him against other PMs (he'd have to go some way to be worse than Theresa!).

I hope we all wish the best for the Prime Minister in his present plight on a basis of humanity, regardless of his politics.

I don't think Raab is especially clever, but then these things can be relative. I don't judge him on one comment (which had you in mind?), more a body of work. He should be better, especially considering his background.

He doesn't seem that capable of i independent thinking either.

Anyway he has an opportunity now to be a leader in Johnson's absence. I'll try to keep an open mind but really not expecting much.

[Guest]

I have just got off the phone to my son, he has a friend who is a teacher, who is working teaching the kids of the essential workers. He did not feel very well on Thursday, thought he had a cold but he also had a high temperature and had lost his sense of taste and smell, just to be safe he phoned into say he would not be in as as a precaution he was self isolating. He was basically told that he had to come in as they were already short of teachers!

Do these idiots that administer our schools and education system have a brain in their heads?

I am informed that he not so politely told them that they should remove their heads from their arses and try and watch the news every now and again.

Oh dear me! My late wife was a teacher and sadly this just about sums up the modern management of secondary education as I understood it. Teachers treated like cattle.

There seems to be a suggestion that closing schools will have had minimal impact so maybe there is a case to be made there, however if only for the teacher mentioned - if you fall ill, you do not want to be caring for children as and when you suddenly become much more ill!

I'm reminded of the Little Britain sketch 'computer says no' when hearing about the horrors of school governance. Another word would be 'jobsworths'.

[WELL-PAST-IT]

BoJo has Covid-19, he is not doing well, but does not seem to be in any danger, WTF is every minute of TV dedicated to this. He is a 55 year old, looking at him unfit man, it is not surprising. All this crap about him being fit is exactly that, watch him waddle off on one of his runs, you never see him go more than 20m.

Why should the BBC and everyone else assume he is any different to any other 55 year old.

The real story is how government is being carried out in his absence, not the fact that he is in intensive care (would he be if he was Joe Bloggs), he is not on a ventilator, but his having oxygen via a face mask.

Seeing every Tory MP that the BBC can get hold of coming on screen and licking his ar$e vie the TV is just sickening. 3:45 to 6:15, solid BoJo. Is sending out all these outside broadcast crews essential travel, I think not.

[lostinwales]

BoJo has Covid-19, he is not doing well, but does not seem to be in any danger, WTF is every minute of TV dedicated to this. He is a 55 year old, looking at him unfit man, it is not surprising. All this crap about him being fit is exactly that, watch him waddle off on one of his runs, you never see him go more than 20m.

Why should the BBC and everyone else assume he is any different to any other 55 year old.

The real story is how government is being carried out in his absence, not the fact that he is in intensive care (would he be if he was Joe Bloggs), he is not on a ventilator, but his having oxygen via a face mask.

Seeing every Tory MP that the BBC can get hold of coming on screen and licking his ar$e vie the TV is just sickening. 3:45 to 6:15, solid BoJo. Is sending out all these outside broadcast crews essential travel, I think not.

MIDDLE OF A 100yr (I really hope) PANDEMIC and ITS STILL ALL ABOUT BOJO.

Yes I feel your pain. So so very glad they don't have a ventilator shortage at St. Thomas's. Fancy being the relatives of the person they take off a ventilator to give it to Boris.

[Soul Requiem]

BoJo has Covid-19, he is not doing well, but does not seem to be in any danger, WTF is every minute of TV dedicated to this. He is a 55 year old, looking at him unfit man, it is not surprising. All this crap about him being fit is exactly that, watch him waddle off on one of his runs, you never see him go more than 20m.

Why should the BBC and everyone else assume he is any different to any other 55 year old.

The real story is how government is being carried out in his absence, not the fact that he is in intensive care (would he be if he was Joe Bloggs), he is not on a ventilator, but his having oxygen via a face mask.

Seeing every Tory MP that the BBC can get hold of coming on screen and licking his ar$e vie the TV is just sickening. 3:45 to 6:15, solid BoJo. Is sending out all these outside broadcast crews essential travel, I think not.

You're right he's just like every other 55 year old in the country isn't he and the prime minister at the same so not like every other 55 year old at all.

Posts like this are sickening.

[Samo]

I’ve always thought cheering in the Commons when you and your party blocked a pay rise for nurses was sickening but each to their own I guess.

[WELL-PAST-IT]

BoJo has Covid-19, he is not doing well, but does not seem to be in any danger, WTF is every minute of TV dedicated to this. He is a 55 year old, looking at him unfit man, it is not surprising. All this crap about him being fit is exactly that, watch him waddle off on one of his runs, you never see him go more than 20m.

Why should the BBC and everyone else assume he is any different to any other 55 year old.

The real story is how government is being carried out in his absence, not the fact that he is in intensive care (would he be if he was Joe Bloggs), he is not on a ventilator, but his having oxygen via a face mask.

Seeing every Tory MP that the BBC can get hold of coming on screen and licking his ar$e vie the TV is just sickening. 3:45 to 6:15, solid BoJo. Is sending out all these outside broadcast crews essential travel, I think not.

You're right he's just like every other 55 year old in the country isn't he and the prime minister at the same so not like every other 55 year old at all.

Posts like this are sickening.

Just because he is Prime Minister does not give him the rights to be treat different to others, he does not have the right to jump the queue so to speak, or to have any treatment that others cannot access due to his political position. Most politicians that see it as a privilege to represent their constituents and a public duty, would not expect such treatment, only career politicians such as BoJo who have only their own interests at heart would us their position to get it.

[WELL-PAST-IT]

Looks like your post has been removed Soul, but to reply:

With BoJo that would not surprise me. I am entitled to comment more than most as I am one of his constituents and he is supposed to be representing me amongst others. He is the most self centred person I have ever met, (and yes , I have met him when he was Mayor of London), his whole ethos is "how can I make this works for me", from his nepotism through to his dealings with the many private developments that had all the social housing removed after the bids that had social housing incorporated into them had been accepted. He is as bad as Trump memory wise, "how did you manage to spend £40M pounds on a bridge that never got beyond planning stage" , "Oh, I can't seem to remember that, was it really that much?"

Please refrain from the personal attacks, it just shows what end of the political spectrum you come from when someone with views you don't like is "a bitter old man". I believe that was the phrase used by Nick Griffin when his views were questioned.

[WELL-PAST-IT]

Has anyone else seen the reports that a keeper at the Bronx Zoo has passed the virus on to Tigers. The social distancing and isolation are designed to stop humans from passing it on to each other; now if pets can catch it especially cats who roam about freely, and then potentially wild life, when and how are we going to stop this bug. Scientists are saying there is no evidence that the bug can be caught from contact with domestic animals, however domestic animals are no different to wild ones and that was how the whole thing started.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52177586

No evidence that domesticated animals can catch it and if they could it would be common knowledge by now.

There are now a lot of documented cases of domestic animals catching the disease, thankfully none know of them passing it on to humans although how would you know?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-52204534

[BamBam]

Give Soul a break lads, he's feeling a bit lost and confused as it's difficult to continue bootlicking Johnson daily when he's in hospital

[navyblueshorts]

Seriously. Grow the **** up people.

[RDW]

Folks I know this is the serious chat thread but it doesn't mean it should be a political poo throwing thread.

[123456789.]

I don't like the Prime Minister, I hope he pulls through for the sake of his family and I hate the idea of anyone dying alone and in pain. I know that when members of my own family have been at the end of their lives, we have been able to gain a small amount of consolation in knowing they were surrounded by people that they love and that love them.

However, it is worth saying that we are now doing utterly terribly with this disease. We had 938 deaths on the 8th of April, Italy's worst day was 971 deaths and Spain's was 950, we are still a few days from our predicted peak. There are three caveats I can think of. Firstly, the makeshift hospitals have been a tremendous achievement, Matt Hancock and the government should be credited with that. Secondly, the financial measures are impressive, Rishi Sunak and the government should be credited with that. Thirdly, we live in a free, well educated, liberal democracy; people should be able to take responsible decisions without being forced by the government.

Nonetheless, our government has not done well here. Reportedly (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain-path-speci-idUSKBN21P1VF), the government knew on the 2nd of March that 80% of the population could catch the disease, of which one in a hundred could die translating to a death rate of 500,000. Regardless of anything else, they knew our health workers would be stretched. The NHS workers have not been protected remotely sufficiently, we knew for months this was a possibility. No one discusses how fundamentally amoral it is that they announced a drive to re-engage retired nurses and doctors (by definition, largely in the risk category) but they wouldn't provide the equipment to help save them. That's beyond Lions led by Donkeys, it is the equivalent of the Home Guard being sent out first on D-Day with no guns, no helmets but no bother a round of applause and a cheer will send them on their way.

On the 3rd March the Prime Minister was boasting he was shaking hands with Coronavirus patients. Two weeks on it was the sports associations that took the decision, not the government, to postpone and cancel fixtures. It was just over a week to the announcement banning meetings of more than two people. Our testing has been nothing short of a disgrace. I like to think of myself as quite patriotic in some respect; I don't like the SNP, I quite like the Queen and I rather like the Peak District. More important to me is the sense that we have the potential to be so much more in this country. It is there in my view on Scottish rugby, I utterly despise the notion that we should expect to do worse than Ireland when demographically we are so similar. It is for those same reasons that I cannot get my head around people defending the government on this. Germany started to test 50,000 people a day three weeks ago. South Korea engaged in mass testing early too. There is no good reason for us not to do as well. The buck stops with the government on that. Scientists have long suspected that a lot of the cases are asymptomatic but still infectious, we now know that to be true. By doing more testing people could have isolated themselves and informed as many people as possible that they'd been in contact with and ask them to do the same. Fewer people die when more tests are done. Fewer healthcare workers will die when they are properly protected. Yet the real patriots in this country, those who sneer at the likes of me with my snowflake Europhilia and my refusal to recognise the legitimacy of Boris' "l'état c'est mois" complex, ought to recognise that claiming the government is doing a good job is either a failure to acknowledge the facts or a bizarre belief that we simply cannot do as well as the Germans.

[RDW]

Excellent, well reasoned post numbers - that's more like what I'm talking about in terms of content on here.

[lostinwales]

Excellent, well reasoned post numbers - that's more like what I'm talking about in terms of content on here.

And yet it was downvoted.

Everybody's opinion is worth something here, but only if it is actually expressed

[WELL-PAST-IT]

Numbers -

My thoughts exactly, I wish I could have put it as eloquently.

I quite like the SNP, mainly due to the hard line, hate any thing English variety of Scot that usually lives in England and benefits from the English economy.

[jimbopip]

Numbers, an excellent post.

I had to nip round to my GP's today to collect my asthma inhaler and on the way there, and back was listening to 5 Live. The host woman, whose name escapes me, had been commenting on "green shoots of hope" in that increases in infection and hospital admissions seem to be slowing down. Her guest, an expert in Epidemiology pointed out that the slowing seems to be happening mainly in London and the south east where the virus arrived first and that places like the north-east (of England) could be running up to a fortnight behind London so have not peaked yet.When asked if there were countries we could learn from in tackling the pandemic he did not mince his words. He described Bahrain's response (screening, testing, contact tracing, isolation, all rigorously enforced by central government and monitored) as a model of public health action. he then said that the British government abdicated all responsibility for enforcing that kind of public health action in the early weeks of the pandemic.
When this is over some people will have to be held to account.

[Guest]

Our government certainly abdicated its responsibility.

It could be damning for Boris Johnson that his initial policy genuinely was to allow 250,000 to 500,000 people in this country to die from the virus, because any alternative action appeared 'too hard'. The subsequent spin will be focused on discrediting this reality which existed for several weeks, from February in to March. In more important matters, we'll likely never know how costly this poluicy was - there will only be best guesses after the fact.

[123456789.]

The fact of the matter is that those who love Boris have a second passion and it is cognitive dissonance. We’ve been useless in this crisis and the Prime Minister has to take responsibility for that. They won’t accept, generally speaking, it’s been dreadful with some noticeable good points. In rugby terms the scramble defence has been relatively okay, but let’s not pretend we should be defending the five metre line in the first place

It’s why it was, frankly, rubbish, when Jeremy Corbyn said he was about policies not people. The reality is that for the most part governments are run according to incidents we simply didn’t envision during elections (think ‘events, Dear boy, events’). That’s why the character not the policy is more important. When people say it’s in bad taste to talk about character when said ‘character’ is up poo creek they tend to give the game away somewhat. No one’s ever been slagged off for saying someone was a decent person when they’re in hospital.

[navyblueshorts]

I don't like the Prime Minister, I hope he pulls through for the sake of his family and I hate the idea of anyone dying alone and in pain. I know that when members of my own family have been at the end of their lives, we have been able to gain a small amount of consolation in knowing they were surrounded by people that they love and that love them.

However, it is worth saying that we are now doing utterly terribly with this disease. We had 938 deaths on the 8th of April, Italy's worst day was 971 deaths and Spain's was 950, we are still a few days from our predicted peak. There are three caveats I can think of. Firstly, the makeshift hospitals have been a tremendous achievement, Matt Hancock and the government should be credited with that. Secondly, the financial measures are impressive, Rishi Sunak and the government should be credited with that. Thirdly, we live in a free, well educated, liberal democracy; people should be able to take responsible decisions without being forced by the government.

Nonetheless, our government has not done well here. Reportedly (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain-path-speci-idUSKBN21P1VF), the government knew on the 2nd of March that 80% of the population could catch the disease, of which one in a hundred could die translating to a death rate of 500,000. Regardless of anything else, they knew our health workers would be stretched. The NHS workers have not been protected remotely sufficiently, we knew for months this was a possibility. No one discusses how fundamentally amoral it is that they announced a drive to re-engage retired nurses and doctors (by definition, largely in the risk category) but they wouldn't provide the equipment to help save them. That's beyond Lions led by Donkeys, it is the equivalent of the Home Guard being sent out first on D-Day with no guns, no helmets but no bother a round of applause and a cheer will send them on their way.

On the 3rd March the Prime Minister was boasting he was shaking hands with Coronavirus patients. Two weeks on it was the sports associations that took the decision, not the government, to postpone and cancel fixtures. It was just over a week to the announcement banning meetings of more than two people. Our testing has been nothing short of a disgrace. I like to think of myself as quite patriotic in some respect; I don't like the SNP, I quite like the Queen and I rather like the Peak District. More important to me is the sense that we have the potential to be so much more in this country. It is there in my view on Scottish rugby, I utterly despise the notion that we should expect to do worse than Ireland when demographically we are so similar. It is for those same reasons that I cannot get my head around people defending the government on this. Germany started to test 50,000 people a day three weeks ago. South Korea engaged in mass testing early too. There is no good reason for us not to do as well. The buck stops with the government on that. Scientists have long suspected that a lot of the cases are asymptomatic but still infectious, we now know that to be true. By doing more testing people could have isolated themselves and informed as many people as possible that they'd been in contact with and ask them to do the same. Fewer people die when more tests are done. Fewer healthcare workers will die when they are properly protected. Yet the real patriots in this country, those who sneer at the likes of me with my snowflake Europhilia and my refusal to recognise the legitimacy of Boris' "l'état c'est mois" complex, ought to recognise that claiming the government is doing a good job is either a failure to acknowledge the facts or a bizarre belief that we simply cannot do as well as the Germans.

This is so flawed. Your 'Lions led by Donkeys' is hyperbolae; even the original was nonsense I'm afraid.

Our testing is more or less fine. We didn't live through SARS, so don't try to equate us w/ Hong Kong and South Korea. Germany has an entirely different governmental setup and they're globally renowned re. diagnostics - we aren't.

You're also trying to blame UKG entirely, when they're having oodles of input from the scientists. Whose 'fault' is it then? have to say, I love the 20:20 hindsight, keyboard epidemiologists that have cropped up all over the place recently.

[navyblueshorts]

Numbers, an excellent post.

I had to nip round to my GP's today to collect my asthma inhaler and on the way there, and back was listening to 5 Live. The host woman, whose name escapes me, had been commenting on "green shoots of hope" in that increases in infection and hospital admissions seem to be slowing down. Her guest, an expert in Epidemiology pointed out that the slowing seems to be happening mainly in London and the south east where the virus arrived first and that places like the north-east (of England) could be running up to a fortnight behind London so have not peaked yet.When asked if there were countries we could learn from in tackling the pandemic he did not mince his words. He described Bahrain's response (screening, testing, contact tracing, isolation, all rigorously enforced by central government and monitored) as a model of public health action. he then said that the British government abdicated all responsibility for enforcing that kind of public health action in the early weeks of the pandemic.
When this is over some people will have to be held to account.

Seriously? You want to be governed as in Bahrain? Of course there'll a post hoc analysis after this is 'over', but I don't think you'll find it concludes that UKG 'abdicated all responsibility'.

[navyblueshorts]

The fact of the matter is that those who love Boris have a second passion and it is cognitive dissonance. We’ve been useless in this crisis and the Prime Minister has to take responsibility for that. They won’t accept, generally speaking, it’s been dreadful with some noticeable good points. In rugby terms the scramble defence has been relatively okay, but let’s not pretend we should be defending the five metre line in the first place

It’s why it was, frankly, rubbish, when Jeremy Corbyn said he was about policies not people. The reality is that for the most part governments are run according to incidents we simply didn’t envision during elections (think ‘events, Dear boy, events’). That’s why the character not the policy is more important. When people say it’s in bad taste to talk about character when said ‘character’ is up poo creek they tend to give the game away somewhat. No one’s ever been slagged off for saying someone was a decent person when they’re in hospital.

Nonsense. We haven't been 'useless'. You're also too quick to throw blame only at UKG when they've been taking advice from the scientists. Are you saying they haven't, or that it's been totally ignored?

By the way, and just to be clear, I don't 'love Boris'.

[123456789.]

Was it not Margaret Thatcher who said 'Advisers advise, Minister decide'? Blaming the advisers is the oldest trick in the book, in History for every incompetent leader there's a whole host of advisers who took the fall first. Edward II outlived Piers Gaveston and the Despensers, Henry VIII managed to bump off More and Cromwell. Eventually it becomes clear who the real problem is.
Firstly the idea that Jimbo was suggesting we abandoned Parliamentary democracy, free press, independent judiciary and all the other hallmarks of our constitution in favour of the modes of governance used in Bahrain is either disingenuous or daft. Rather it seems he was advocating that if you test early and often as they did in Bahrain, then trace their movements, you can better combat the illness, engaging in whataboutery is a pretty pointless exercise at the best of times. I am not an epidemiologist but I don't think the sign of success is having the worst day of any European country with this disease.
On testing, we did not live through Sars, you are right on that front. There were more cases in Britain, though, than there were in South Korea. I don't know about Germany's diagnostics reputation. I do know that we have fewer tests per million than almost any other European country. Again, I am not an epidemiologist,  but I don't think that is a good thing (Michael Gove fought tooth and nail for my right to pontificate and I don't really don't like to let people down). Germany was proactive in dealing with Coronavirus, they began their lockdown relatively early before mortality rates shot up. We waited and waited on the basis that for some reason the British people wouldn't handle it. In effect the Germans stayed home, saved lives and protected their health service earlier so that they could do so more effectively. They have a greater healthcare capacity than us, you could argue that there was greater need for us to act early.
With regard to 'Lions led by Donkeys' the idea that an incompetent leader can undo all the good work of the foot soldiers is one found in proverbs from almost every great civilisation. I don't think discussing the relative merits of General Haig's battle strategy is sensible here. Ulysses Grant was very successful in fighting the South in the American Civil War and he was still called a butcher. Our government has sent "troops" into "battle" with similar levels of reckless abandon and we have seen pretty horrifying figures in the process. A large number of the deaths were simply unavoidable, we live in a highly developed island nation in a globalised world, these events will always hit us hard. However,  we could have prepared for it better. Our government was slow to react and healthcare workers, amongst others, are bearing the brunt. Abdul Chowdhury died yesterday, having spent many of his last days asking for better PPE, was he spouting 'hyperbole'? I fail to understand how the death Fayez Ayache who died aged 76 having come out of retirement, or Alice Kit Tak Ong who died aged 70 or Mohamad Shousha who died aged 79 are not examples of the consequences of an ill thought policy. I cannot understand what would possess a government to send people in that age bracket to fight a disease that predominantly harms the elderly and the sick without the appropriate PPE. Matt Hancock, who has done some very good things in this crisis admittedly, was on the television lying, two weeks ago, that they had the right PPE, when they were calling for retired people to come back to the Health Service. That, to me, is fundamentally immoral.
I do blame the UK government for this. The same as I blame Jeremy Corbyn for the issues in the Labour party under his control. The same as I blame Jo Swinson for the Lib Dem Collapse. The same as I blame Blair for Iraq. Why? Because they are the ones making the decisions. If you want to blame the scientists then I'd refer you to the ever-pertinent wisdom of Malcolm Tucker: "you’ve been listening to the wrong expert. You need to listen to the right expert. And you need to know what an expert is going to advise you before he advises you." Governments choose who they listen to and, if they like what they hear, they act. At the end of this there will be people extolling the virtues of our brave Dear Leader, whatever happens. I think he's warranted a statue, he'd look pretty apposite sharing a plinth with Neville Chamberlain and Anthony Eden.

[Pr4wn]

To add, boll0cks to those saying that nobody should "get all political" at a time of crisis. The depth of the crisis in the UK is due to crap decisions by politicians who need to be held to account.

Also, those saying that the advisers should be blamed would 100% not be saying that if Labour was in power.

[lostinwales]

It is a very diffcult situation, and there would be complaints about any government under these circumstances. But this conservative government does not get a free pass because of this, and they don't get to use the 'we followed science' line as a universal sticky plaster. We do have to be very careful about the dividing lines between 'it was going to happen anyway', where they get things right but people die regardless, and where they got things very wrong.

There is a long list of what they have got wrong. On the science side alone they initially chose to follow different advice from everyone else. That alone isn't wrong but extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof.

Without going into an essay I'd just mention testing, ventilators, PPE, preparation and heath of the NHS itself and of course dear old Brexit.

Worth mentioning Brexit because of the number of staff from the EU who have left over the last few years. I am glad they are probably busy saving lives in their home countries, but staffing numbers in the UK are a critical problem.

Anyway for the government it still feels like a PR exercise. It isn't all the governments fault but we are now in a situation where almost 1000 people died in hostpitals (so that doesn't include homes and care homes) but its OK because Boris is up and walking.

[jimbopip]

Numbers is on the ball again.

If you are confused about whether the government was slow to act, or gave contradictory signals consider;

"advising" people to avoid pubs, clubs, cinemas and theatres while allowing those establishments to remain open,

"advising" people not to go to work unless it was "necessary" without explaining what necessary actually means : I know people for whom necessary meant if they didn't go in they wouldn't be buying food that week and so they kept going in, in one case travelling to London on a packed commuter train while running a fever then being sent home almost as soon as his colleagues saw the sweat dripping onto his keyboard, before we get to critical the individual in question was kept on payroll later in the week when most of his office were laid of until further notice,

allowing unrestricted access to public transport in and out of London, which meant key workers being crammed into overcrowded trains, tubes and busses ( the services having been cut on government instructions). Surely a police/army presence checking that only key workers were allowed into stations would have sent out a clear message about who should be travelling and saved lives?

our Prime Minister , who should have known better than any of us, boasting on TV about visiting Covid victims in hospital AND SHAKING HANDS WITH THEM       how many people did he shake with after he left that ward? now that he seems safely out of ICU I can say this: he was modelling dangerously irresponsible behaviour. If he wasn't taking the advice seriously enough on a personal level why should anyone else?

I can't help thinking that we were affected by this virus at least two weeks after Italy and we were still under-prepared, consequently we have pretty much mirrored Italy's heartbreaking death toll and now look to be surpassing it.


Universities stopped all face to face teaching a week to two weeks before colleges and schools were told to shut down, simply because the schools and colleges had to wait until the government sanctioned it, they were unwilling to do so for a variety of reasons none of which were about limiting the spread of covid-19.

When this is over some people will have to answer for their actions. Let's hope they are asked the right questions.

[WELL-PAST-IT]

I was not aware that Dominic Cummings was a scientist, his was I believe the "herd immunity" advice.

Have you noticed that since thing started going a bit pair shaped, he has stopped tweeting and spouting his advice across the world.

As we are being semi political I have noticed that Jess Phillips has been appointed to the Shadow Cabinet team, that will liven up meetings, not only does she speak her mind, but she is a scream when it comes to very dry wit and putting people in their place. I remember when the idiot from UKIP commented that he wouldn't even r*** her, she had half the country looking up the meaning of "neckbeard" which had the result of letting the whole country, Farage aside, know what UKIP was made up of and what a gutless pr1ck he is without any name calling.

It was good to hear Hancock actually thanking those NHS workers who have come from overseas to work in the NHS, a number who have sadly died because of it. It will be interesting to see how, if at all, this changes government policy on immigration.

[navyblueshorts]

Was it not Margaret Thatcher who said 'Advisers advise, Minister decide'? Blaming the advisers is the oldest trick in the book, in History for every incompetent leader there's a whole host of advisers who took the fall first. Edward II outlived Piers Gaveston and the Despensers, Henry VIII managed to bump off More and Cromwell. Eventually it becomes clear who the real problem is.
Firstly the idea that Jimbo was suggesting we abandoned Parliamentary democracy, free press, independent judiciary and all the other hallmarks of our constitution in favour of the modes of governance used in Bahrain is either disingenuous or daft. Rather it seems he was advocating that if you test early and often as they did in Bahrain, then trace their movements, you can better combat the illness, engaging in whataboutery is a pretty pointless exercise at the best of times. I am not an epidemiologist but I don't think the sign of success is having the worst day of any European country with this disease.
On testing, we did not live through Sars, you are right on that front. There were more cases in Britain, though, than there were in South Korea. I don't know about Germany's diagnostics reputation. I do know that we have fewer tests per million than almost any other European country. Again, I am not an epidemiologist,  but I don't think that is a good thing (Michael Gove fought tooth and nail for my right to pontificate and I don't really don't like to let people down). Germany was proactive in dealing with Coronavirus, they began their lockdown relatively early before mortality rates shot up. We waited and waited on the basis that for some reason the British people wouldn't handle it. In effect the Germans stayed home, saved lives and protected their health service earlier so that they could do so more effectively. They have a greater healthcare capacity than us, you could argue that there was greater need for us to act early.
With regard to 'Lions led by Donkeys' the idea that an incompetent leader can undo all the good work of the foot soldiers is one found in proverbs from almost every great civilisation. I don't think discussing the relative merits of General Haig's battle strategy is sensible here. Ulysses Grant was very successful in fighting the South in the American Civil War and he was still called a butcher. Our government has sent "troops" into "battle" with similar levels of reckless abandon and we have seen pretty horrifying figures in the process. A large number of the deaths were simply unavoidable, we live in a highly developed island nation in a globalised world, these events will always hit us hard. However,  we could have prepared for it better. Our government was slow to react and healthcare workers, amongst others, are bearing the brunt. Abdul Chowdhury died yesterday, having spent many of his last days asking for better PPE, was he spouting 'hyperbole'? I fail to understand how the death Fayez Ayache who died aged 76 having come out of retirement, or Alice Kit Tak Ong who died aged 70 or Mohamad Shousha who died aged 79 are not examples of the consequences of an ill thought policy. I cannot understand what would possess a government to send people in that age bracket to fight a disease that predominantly harms the elderly and the sick without the appropriate PPE. Matt Hancock, who has done some very good things in this crisis admittedly, was on the television lying, two weeks ago, that they had the right PPE, when they were calling for retired people to come back to the Health Service. That, to me, is fundamentally immoral.
I do blame the UK government for this. The same as I blame Jeremy Corbyn for the issues in the Labour party under his control. The same as I blame Jo Swinson for the Lib Dem Collapse. The same as I blame Blair for Iraq. Why? Because they are the ones making the decisions. If you want to blame the scientists then I'd refer you to the ever-pertinent wisdom of Malcolm Tucker: "you’ve been listening to the wrong expert. You need to listen to the right expert. And you need to know what an expert is going to advise you before he advises you." Governments choose who they listen to and, if they like what they hear, they act. At the end of this there will be people extolling the virtues of our brave Dear Leader, whatever happens. I think he's warranted a statue, he'd look pretty apposite sharing a plinth with Neville Chamberlain and Anthony Eden.

A lot of sound and fury, but very little that's unequivocal.

Yes, Ministers decide, but you're oversimplifying this, as so many appear to be doing.

You're correct re. testing, more is obviously better, but we were where we were at the start of this. We don't know the details re. UKG's early approach and what it might have been based on, and yet here we are, speculating.

Re. Lions/Donkeys, you used the phrase. It's more than often nonsense, as it almost certainly is here.

Re. PPE etc and volunteers, that's a difficult one and I don't think anyone knows the whole story. Even with PPE, this is an odds game re. catching SARS2 - more exposure = more likelihood. They aren't in full hazmat w/ disinfection showers etc. Do you think that those volunteering didn't know this? I suspect they knew exactly what they were letting themselves in for, having spent careers in the NHS watching it slowly decay.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying UKG has handled this perfectly.

[navyblueshorts]

To add, boll0cks to those saying that nobody should "get all political" at a time of crisis. The depth of the crisis in the UK is due to crap decisions by politicians who need to be held to account.

Also, those saying that the advisers should be blamed would 100% not be saying that if Labour was in power.

I'm afraid that's simply not true, at least not on my part, and I'm not even saying advisers should be blamed. This is the sort of thing I hate - jumping to conclusions in the face of zero actual evidence.

I do agree though, that politicians of all stripes have dropped the ball over the NHS and particularly over things such as this i.e. national/global emergencies.

[Duty281]

I was not aware that Dominic Cummings was a scientist, his was I believe the "herd immunity" advice.

It is believed that this was his original thought, yes, but he soon changed his mind and (apparently) became one of the fiercest champions of lockdown within government.

[123456789.]

In a couple of the in-depth newspaper articles on the government strategy for this and the decisions involved. I don’t know how accurate they actually are with regard to the internal conversations however the gist of it seemed to be that the scientists said until there was a vaccine herd immunity was the only way out and that as the disease passes through a population a level of immunity will develop neutrally.
In effect herd immunity is what’s going on in every country, if we can reach a stage where 60-80 percent of the populace have some form of immunity from the disease, then the viruses spread will slowly come to an end on its own. Cummings misunderstood this and briefed the media that here immunity was the aim not the natural consequence. That was when people more in touch with their species realised that people would have to be allowed to die as part of this approach and turned on the government.
As I’ve said I don’t know accurate those articles have been and for the sake of balance the government has vehemently denied them. On this it seems Cummings was not giving the advice but rather packaging it for public consumption - which he did rather poorly.

[navyblueshorts]

Numbers is on the ball again.

If you are confused about whether the government was slow to act, or gave contradictory signals consider;

"advising" people to avoid pubs, clubs, cinemas and theatres while allowing those establishments to remain open,

"advising" people not to go to work unless it was "necessary" without explaining what necessary actually means : I know people for whom necessary meant if they didn't go in they wouldn't be buying food that week and so they kept going in, in one case travelling to London on a packed commuter train while running a fever then being sent home almost as soon as his colleagues saw the sweat dripping onto his keyboard, before we get to critical the individual in question was kept on payroll later in the week when most of his office were laid of until further notice,

allowing unrestricted access to public transport in and out of London, which meant key workers being crammed into overcrowded trains, tubes and busses ( the services having been cut on government instructions). Surely a police/army presence checking that only key workers were allowed into stations would have sent out a clear message about who should be travelling and saved lives?

our Prime Minister , who should have known better than any of us, boasting on TV about visiting Covid victims in hospital AND SHAKING HANDS WITH THEM       how many people did he shake with after he left that ward? now that he seems safely out of ICU I can say this: he was modelling dangerously irresponsible behaviour. If he wasn't taking the advice seriously enough on a personal level why should anyone else?

I can't help thinking that we were affected by this virus at least two weeks after Italy and we were still under-prepared, consequently we have pretty much mirrored Italy's heartbreaking death toll and now look to be surpassing it.


Universities stopped all face to face teaching a week to two weeks before colleges and schools were told to shut down, simply because the schools and colleges had to wait until the government sanctioned it, they were unwilling to do so for a variety of reasons none of which were about limiting the spread of covid-19.

When this is over some people will have to answer for their actions. Let's hope they are asked the right questions.

All nice ideas I guess, but I suggest this is a liberal democracy isn't it? Like you, I was 'advised' not to go to pubs/clubs etc the same as the rest of the UK. I managed to follow that advice as it was bl00dy obvious why. I love all this retrospective suggestion that it was 'obvious' that we should have the army etc on the streets and an enforced lockdown much earlier.

Singapore has only just closed schools now. How does that advance your argument? Could it be that you aren't in possession of the relevant facts and/or the fact that there isn't a black/white solution to this problem? You did listen to the discussions re. what closing schools would mean for childcare and the impact on health workers etc?

[jimbopip]

I was not aware that Dominic Cummings was a scientist, his was I believe the "herd immunity" advice.

It is believed that this was his original thought, yes, but he soon changed his mind and (apparently) became one of the fiercest champions of lockdown within government.

A J M Keynes famously said, "For every complex, complicated, difficult problem there is always a quick, simply, easy, obvious solution. It is also, almost always wrong ."

I think that herd immunity looked like a very obvious and easy solution. Hence lots of intelligent people initially thinking it was the way to go, Sweden still seems to be trusting in it despite a fairly exponential increase in infections and deaths in the past week. However, once the figures were looked at in detail; 80% of the population infected approx. 48 million people, a mortality rate of between 0.5 and 1% at best, between 250 000 and 500 00 people dying again at best, not to mention the effects of the NHS being totally overwhelmed and the genuine possibility of "the lights going out" as key workers all over the country failed to turn up for work. At that point the government went to plan B.

The time lost was time wasted.

Ironically enough, Johnson who became Prime Minister after some extremely Machiavellian scheming has failed here because he wasn't Machiavellian enough. The wily Italian said that in peacetime government by committee is the best way forward but in times of crisis strong single minded executive leadership is what is called for. In simple terms, have a plan and stick to it. Epidemiologists have been saying for decades now that influenza pandemics strike roughly every 80-100 years and the last one was Spanish flu at the end of the First World war. In other words people whose job it is to prepare for these things knew it was coming. Plans should have been made and put before government committees. If successive governments have chosen to starve the NHS of funds they cannot then say they did their best in the "unforeseen crisis".

[123456789.]

For the sake of something unequivocal
Worst days from Coronavirus:
Italy - 971
Spain - 950
UK - 980 (not including care homes or deaths at home)
France - 1417 (Including care homes)
Germany - 266

Testing per million
Italy - 14,999
Spain - 7,593
UK - 4,667
France - 5,114
Germany - 15,730

The first reported case in Germany was the 27th January. The first reported case of in Britain was the 31st January.

This is a snapshot from a report that came out earlier this past week, I've included the link to the rest of it below - I think it says about 2,900 on the 17th April.  

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in Seattle predicts 66,000 UK deaths from Covid-19 by August, with a peak of nearly 3,000 a day, based on a steep climb in daily deaths early in the outbreak.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/uk-will-be-europes-worst-hit-by-coronavirus-study-predicts#img-1


This is the latest information from the BBC on PPE:

The BMA issued a snapshot survey of almost 2,000 responses on Tuesday. It said it showed more than half of doctors working in high-risk environments reporting either shortages, or no supply at all of adequate face masks, while 65% said they did not have access to eye protection. The figures were even higher among GPs in contact with Covid-19 patients.

As I have said a fair few times. The primary 'fault' for this lies with the Chinese government that attempted to hush it up to begin with. But we were slow to react, I think from January through to late March it appears that our government response was utterly shambolic and failed to realise the extent of the threat. From April onward, it has been pretty effective. However if that IMHE report is right, and I hope to God that it is not, I think it's hard to say that our government has been effective overall. The hospital construction has been a great success, the economic measures seem to be doing the trick and people are generally responding to the lockdown measures. Still, if we do the worst in Europe it seems a leap to far to credit our government with any success in this.

Again the point on 'I managed to follow that advice' so don't blame the Prime Minister. When it was merely advice people who ran pubs could not afford to close as their insurance would not cover it. People who worked for the people who ran the pubs could not refuse to turn up to work if they wanted to earn money to eat, drink and pay the rent. Then you have the people who continued to go to the pub and decided they would not follow the advice. As I've said before many times in a liberal, educated democracy it should not take the government telling you what to for you to the right thing. However not everyone chooses to do the right thing and not everyone can afford to do so in a situation like this without help.

Singapore has only just closed schools because it acted early on shutting its borders, it tested extensively (almost three times as much as us) and engaged in extensive contact tracing. One of the guys I lived with at University was from Singapore, he actually contacted all of us to check we were okay because they are so shocked at our government's initial response.

[Pr4wn]

To add, boll0cks to those saying that nobody should "get all political" at a time of crisis. The depth of the crisis in the UK is due to crap decisions by politicians who need to be held to account.

Also, those saying that the advisers should be blamed would 100% not be saying that if Labour was in power.

I'm afraid that's simply not true, at least not on my part, and I'm not even saying advisers should be blamed. This is the sort of thing I hate - jumping to conclusions in the face of zero actual evidence.

I do agree though, that politicians of all stripes have dropped the ball over the NHS and particularly over things such as this i.e. national/global emergencies.

Wasn't directing this at you so you can untwist your knickers.

[lostinwales]

I was not aware that Dominic Cummings was a scientist, his was I believe the "herd immunity" advice.

Have you noticed that since thing started going a bit pair shaped, he has stopped tweeting and spouting his advice across the world.

There seems to be no news, other than he's still sick with the bug.

[navyblueshorts]

For the sake of something unequivocal
Worst days from Coronavirus:
Italy - 971
Spain - 950
UK - 980 (not including care homes or deaths at home)
France - 1417 (Including care homes)
Germany - 266

Testing per million
Italy - 14,999
Spain - 7,593
UK - 4,667
France - 5,114
Germany - 15,730

The first reported case in Germany was the 27th January. The first reported case of in Britain was the 31st January.

This is a snapshot from a report that came out earlier this past week, I've included the link to the rest of it below - I think it says about 2,900 on the 17th April.  

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in Seattle predicts 66,000 UK deaths from Covid-19 by August, with a peak of nearly 3,000 a day, based on a steep climb in daily deaths early in the outbreak.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/uk-will-be-europes-worst-hit-by-coronavirus-study-predicts#img-1


This is the latest information from the BBC on PPE:

The BMA issued a snapshot survey of almost 2,000 responses on Tuesday. It said it showed more than half of doctors working in high-risk environments reporting either shortages, or no supply at all of adequate face masks, while 65% said they did not have access to eye protection. The figures were even higher among GPs in contact with Covid-19 patients.

As I have said a fair few times. The primary 'fault' for this lies with the Chinese government that attempted to hush it up to begin with. But we were slow to react, I think from January through to late March it appears that our government response was utterly shambolic and failed to realise the extent of the threat. From April onward, it has been pretty effective. However if that IMHE report is right, and I hope to God that it is not, I think it's hard to say that our government has been effective overall. The hospital construction has been a great success, the economic measures seem to be doing the trick and people are generally responding to the lockdown measures. Still, if we do the worst in Europe it seems a leap to far to credit our government with any success in this.

Again the point on 'I managed to follow that advice' so don't blame the Prime Minister. When it was merely advice people who ran pubs could not afford to close as their insurance would not cover it. People who worked for the people who ran the pubs could not refuse to turn up to work if they wanted to earn money to eat, drink and pay the rent. Then you have the people who continued to go to the pub and decided they would not follow the advice. As I've said before many times in a liberal, educated democracy it should not take the government telling you what to for you to the right thing. However not everyone chooses to do the right thing and not everyone can afford to do so in a situation like this without help.

Singapore has only just closed schools because it acted early on shutting its borders, it tested extensively (almost three times as much as us) and engaged in extensive contact tracing. One of the guys I lived with at University was from Singapore, he actually contacted all of us to check we were okay because they are so shocked at our government's initial response.

Pretty good post; can't disagree w/ much of it. Not sure I'd describe UKG as shambolic over this, and I suspect there's mitigation. Guess we'll see how it all pans out...

[123456789.]

I was not aware that Dominic Cummings was a scientist, his was I believe the "herd immunity" advice.

Have you noticed that since thing started going a bit pair shaped, he has stopped tweeting and spouting his advice across the world.

There seems to be no news, other than he's still sick with the bug.

I fear that the Virus saw a kindred spirit in Dominic Cummings and they've simply been sat playing chess and plotting together for something more dastardly in the future while all this carries on in the foreground.

[123456789.]

Happy Easter everybody, if you see a scruffy man toddling about with holes in his hands tell him to pull his finger out a wee bit.

There was a thread on Twitter I saw this morning that was quite interesting. At the beginning of this pandemic we had 6.6 ICU beds per 100,000 people and Ireland had 6.5. In Ireland there have been 320 deaths and in Britain there have been 9,875. That roughly translates to 6.5 deaths per 100,000 in Ireland and 14.81 deaths per 100,000 in the UK. So the UK has a death rate 2.5 times Ireland's currently. They had their first case on the same day as ours. The major difference is that they closed up a long time (in Coronavirus terms) before us.

[Soul Requiem]

Happy Easter everybody, if you see a scruffy man toddling about with holes in his hands tell him to pull his finger out a wee bit.

There was a thread on Twitter I saw this morning that was quite interesting. At the beginning of this pandemic we had 6.6 ICU beds per 100,000 people and Ireland had 6.5. In Ireland there have been 320 deaths and in Britain there have been 9,875. That roughly translates to 6.5 deaths per 100,000 in Ireland and 14.81 deaths per 100,000 in the UK. So the UK has a death rate 2.5 times Ireland's currently. They had their first case on the same day as ours. The major difference is that they closed up a long time (in Coronavirus terms) before us.

100 Busiest airports in Europe

UK- 14
Spain- 9
Italy- 13
France- 9
Ireland- 1

I can be selective with numbers too.

[123456789.]

Surely the fact we have busy airports is a reason to be proactive not reactive about a global pandemic?

The population of Ireland is roughly one thirteenth ours anyhow.

[Soul Requiem]

Surely the fact we have busy airports is a reason to be proactive not reactive about a global pandemic?

Perhaps but it merely highlights that in certain countries there will have been a big problem before it was visibly a problem.

[123456789.]

I don’t doubt that, there’s caveats in every situation. There’s the age profile element and the fact that we have a city of 9 million people. But 2.5 times the amount is pretty damning. While we had Cheltenham going ahead, they cancelled St Patrick’s day. There’s a wider psychological impact at play with regard to
how seriously people take the situation as well as the infection at the specific events.

[lostinwales]

I don’t doubt that, there’s caveats in every situation. There’s the age profile element and the fact that we have a city of 9 million people. But 2.5 times the amount is pretty damning. While we had Cheltenham going ahead, they cancelled St Patrick’s day. There’s a wider psychological impact at play with regard to
how seriously people take the situation as well as the infection at the specific events.

Population density must indeed have a big impact - but the fact that even now there are no checks on people flying into the UK sounds simply bizarre.

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