The Covid-19 serious chat thread

[RDW]

First topic message reminder :

A thread set up to house the more serious chat relating to the global pandemic.

Nothing has changed in what we expect from discussions on here though:

- Please treat each other with respect
- Avoid hyperbole and fake news
- This thread shouldn't be used for a political soapbox, but political discussion will likely happen. See point 1!

A reminder that we have a community thread here for people to vent, look for help and all round support each other. https://www.606v2.com/t69506-the-covid-19-community-thread#3896653

[Crimey]

They're even more misleading when they don't include care homes which the BBC are reporting there were 2000 deaths in care homes the week ending the 17th, double compared to the previous week.

You've got to pick something to report and the international standard is hospital deaths as this has the highest form of accuracy. Particularly given for many in care homes it will be difficult to judge whether Covid-19 or other conditions were the cause of death.

[hampo17]

They're even more misleading when they don't include care homes which the BBC are reporting there were 2000 deaths in care homes the week ending the 17th, double compared to the previous week.

You've got to pick something to report and the international standard is hospital deaths as this has the highest form of accuracy. Particularly given for many in care homes it will be difficult to judge whether Covid-19 or other conditions were the cause of death.

There's a big part of me that wonders whether some deaths are being put down to Covid19 when they're not. For example my mum is in hospital at the moment, she was rushed the Maelor on Saturday night and then moved to Walton Sunday morning. She had a bleed on her brain which required surgery, now if while she is in there she contracts Covid19 and doesn't recover is it easier to say she died of that or because of complications with the bleed on her brain.

[BamBam]

My friends grandmother was one of 6 residents in a care home with a maximum capacity of 14 to pass away in a two week period. She was taken to hospital and diagnosed with coronavirus, yet some of the others passed away in the home.

We're at close 50k deaths now in all likelihood, yet the blustering overgrown ape in charge thinks others will be envious of our apparent success

[Crimey]

They're even more misleading when they don't include care homes which the BBC are reporting there were 2000 deaths in care homes the week ending the 17th, double compared to the previous week.

You've got to pick something to report and the international standard is hospital deaths as this has the highest form of accuracy. Particularly given for many in care homes it will be difficult to judge whether Covid-19 or other conditions were the cause of death.

There's a big part of me that wonders whether some deaths are being put down to Covid19 when they're not. For example my mum is in hospital at the moment, she was rushed the Maelor on Saturday night and then moved to Walton Sunday morning. She had a bleed on her brain which required surgery, now if while she is in there she contracts Covid19 and doesn't recover is it easier to say she died of that or because of complications with the bleed on her brain.

I'm not sure how death reporting works - are all the deaths being reported currently "This person died of Covid-19" or are they "this person died and they had Covid-19". How do you even be certain of the first given 9/10 people dying have other underlying health conditions.

[Soul Requiem]

They're even more misleading when they don't include care homes which the BBC are reporting there were 2000 deaths in care homes the week ending the 17th, double compared to the previous week.

You've got to pick something to report and the international standard is hospital deaths as this has the highest form of accuracy. Particularly given for many in care homes it will be difficult to judge whether Covid-19 or other conditions were the cause of death.

There's a big part of me that wonders whether some deaths are being put down to Covid19 when they're not. For example my mum is in hospital at the moment, she was rushed the Maelor on Saturday night and then moved to Walton Sunday morning. She had a bleed on her brain which required surgery, now if while she is in there she contracts Covid19 and doesn't recover is it easier to say she died of that or because of complications with the bleed on her brain.

I think it's a two edged sword in that regard, you'll have deaths attributed to Covid-19 that were caused by another issue but it also happens in reverse.

It's worth noting that ONS have not said there were 27,000 Covid-19 deaths up to April 17th, that is something Chris Giles is interpreting from the numbers and doesn't take into account flu deaths being higher this year than the past BEFORE we had cases in this country. It's of no consolation or help to the families of people dying and we won't know the true extent of things until it's over.

[MrInvisible]

France is one country which includes care home deaths in their Covid-19 mortality figures.  Their latest figures are 23,300 deaths, and with those new figures on UK care home deaths, it looks like we have overtaken their deaths total.  Bear in mind that France was affected earlier and with land border with Italy were in a far more vulnerable position than we were in UK at equivalent stage.

I was watching Newsnight last night, and there was a good discussion on social care, and how it has been neglected by politicians (of all parties).  With the care homes now increasingly bearing the brunt of Covid-19 deaths the spotlight is falling on this sector: fragmented, underpaid, underqualified staff and lacking in PPE, and the standards (imperfect which they can at times be) in NHS.  Also, we knew by early March how damaging the virus was proving to be in care homes in other countries, yet there doesn't appear to have been any concerted strategy to deal with this - why wasn't this looked at as matter of urgency by Cobra?

There was also a correspondent talking about how great it will be once testing is ramped up to ensure all hospital patients are required to be tested for Covid-19.  Indeed it will be, but it still looks some way off, and imagine if we had had this in place a month ago.  Not sure what the situation in other countries is but I would have thought they'd have been doing this in Germany given the huge amount of testing that's been going on over there.

[BamBam]

https://twitter.com/peston/status/1255077490604769280?s=21

Looks like Peston agrees, that well known anti Tory. So now we have the ITV political editor and the FT's economic editor in broad agreement, please let us know what statistical evaluation has been made by the bottom of Dominic Cummings' boots?

[lostinwales]

The Chris Giles figures are based on the comparative numbers of deaths for the same period in previous years. The number is an estimate, and the casualties will naturally include those who died because of factors related to covid-19 although the virus may not be directly responsible.

This will include DNR notices, people who delay going into hospital until too late etc.

It is no more or less accurate than the numbers that are being announced daily by the government, given the lag in reporting (and accuracy of tests etc). It doesn't paint a very good picture at all, but is hard to compare to other countries unless you can carry out the same modelling with confidence.

It could always be worse. Spare a thought for New York. Latest figures show that 1.5/100 have tested positive. 22,600 deaths

A very crude estimate indicates that death rates in London are half of those in NY. Up to Sunday the number of recorded Covid19 hospital deaths in London was 4693

[MrInvisible]

Does anyone know if any data on Covid-19 deaths registered at home is being picked up?  Numbers could be significant here too - not everyone makes it to hospital on time.

[lostinwales]

Does anyone know if any data on Covid-19 deaths registered at home is being picked up?  Numbers could be significant here too - not everyone makes it to hospital on time.

One of the things I have seen is that the symptoms of the bug often vary by a large degree. There is a specific concern with 'younger' people dying from strokes induced by it, and that such people will often die at home. I think the final tally will take a long time to determine.

[MrInvisible]

Sadly, someone who works for my employer (didn't personally know him, but he was only 52, way too young to go) died from the virus whilst at home.  I'd imagine there's quite a few other cases up and down the country which will have been attributed by the coroner to Covid-19 - surely these will all get collated at some point.

[Soul Requiem]

Sadly, someone who works for my employer (didn't personally know him, but he was only 52, way too young to go) died from the virus whilst at home.  I'd imagine there's quite a few other cases up and down the country which will have been attributed by the coroner to Covid-19 - surely these will all get collated at some point.

They're included in the ONS figures, one section is purely for deaths at home, week ending 17th April 416 were recorded as dying with Covid-19.

[BamBam]

Even the Telegraph is seeing the light

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/28/uks-death-toll-will-soon-worst-europe-charts/

Without paywall - http://archive.is/3cx5o

Wonder what the response will be from those currently at eye level with the ankles of a certain special advisor

[lostinwales]

I am so mixed about the short cummings of this government. He's such a convenient bogeyman - but he does have a nasty habit of turning up in all the wrong places.

The whole SAGE saga (present but not involved?) would be a lot easier to comprehend if the government was more open about it. But they are not, and in the absence of clarity the conspiracy theories can run wild

[123456789.]

The government have just said that from tomorrow they will start reporting all deaths. I wonder if they'll include all previous ones.
It's also worth remembering the fact that no government is perfect. I am no fan of ours and think some pretty hefty resignations should be coming in at the end of this. However, it's only France and Germany, I believe, that is reporting all cases. So it would be a gross over-simplification to compare our actual number with other countries reported number. I think it's sensible to dispel the idea that the government has any malign motives, equally let's not pretend they've done remotely well. It does seem that we are likely to have the most deaths in Europe or already have the most deaths in Europe despite being two weeks behind Italy.

People who say they that the government is doing well with a bad hand need a reality check. In October 2019 John Hopkins University provided a Global Health Security Index to rank countries according to their "ability to prevent and mitigate epidemics and pandemics". The UK ranked 2nd out of 195. We ranked top in the world for our preparedness to report on and surveil pandemics. In terms of testing capacity we were ranked far higher than Germany. The WHO said 'test, test, test'. Germany has tested 25,000 people per million, we have tested 2.5 times less per capita. Germany has had 74 deaths per million, we have had 311. Let's be frank about the utter failure on this.

Panorama reported today that the government was told in June by Nervtag (New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group) to purchase gowns. The BBC are reporting that "there were no gowns, visors, swabs or body bags in the government's pandemic stockpile when Covid-19 reached the UK". In 2009, reportedly, 33 million masks were stockpiled for a pandemic, as of yet 20 million of them are unaccounted for. Victoria Atkins claimed this was unprecedented. Except it wasn't. Because we had the example of MERs and SARs to learn from. As Singapore and South Korea did. South Korea had fewer cases of SARs than we had. There is no excuse for not having learnt these lessons. Of course, these are long term issues and the blame cannot be put at Johnson's door for all of it. However, Johnson was in the cabinet throughout 2016 when the government ran a Pandemic trial in which we were shown to be completely unprepared. He also missed key meetings in the initial weeks of this nightmare when he could and should have been driving to improve the situation. They weren't following the scientific advice in June. Cummings is known to despise experts and, funnily enough, the only advice his Government has followed was the advice he sat in on beforehand.

Countries that implemented lockdown early in this debacle have done better than those who did it later. In a dramatic swing Sweden has transitioned from the champion of the social democrats to the hero of the libertarians. Yet they have about five times as many deaths as Norway per capita, Norway and Sweden had their first deaths on the same day. We have at least between two or three times as many deaths as Ireland who had their first death on the same day as us. Boris Johnson was talking on the 3rd February as to how he would resist calls to lockdown, we would be the superman of this whole crisis. In reality if this crisis has had a superhero, it's been Jacinda Ardern who implemented a lockdown when an impending disaster was obvious but before their first death. In Britain Boris Johnson attended his first meeting 48 hours before the first death in the UK. It is a recorded fact that Johnson was told in late January that a lockdown was possible and on the 24th February that it was necessary. In New Zealand they have had nine deaths and community transmissions have finished. Of course New Zealand is far more remote than we are, with a more rural population. But, once again, government's that have been proactive have done far better for their people.

Lastly we were two weeks behind Italy in the progression of this disease. We had time to prepare and we wasted that time. Since then we have had continued, unchecked travel to the UK. When all of this began, Singapore, and other Asian countries, brought in a 14 days mandatory quarantine period upon arrival in the country. We are an Island country, we could have brought in a more robust migration policy for the duration of this crisis than almost any other European country. Instead we still have thousands of people arriving in the country every day from some of the worst hot spots of this disease.

Our government has failed health workers by not stockpiling when they were warned to in June. Our testing has been dreadful, when we were, supposedly, in a better place than Germany in October. Our government was warned a lockdown was necessary in February, it did not come into force until late March, after Cheltenham and after thousands of Spanish fans had arrived to watch a game when matches in their own country were no longer being player, after Germany and after Ireland also.

[navyblueshorts]

Interesting post, Numbers, but too much conjecture for me, I'm afraid. You seem balanced, but too much of the general conversation is driven by scheisse journalism, utterly banal and moronic questioning of politicians (w/ post-answer 're-interpretation' by journalists), pre-conceived political bias and a seeming desire to much rake during the actual crisis. I'm bored of it.

One thing I have got from this is a bit more respect for the patience of politicians (even Corbyn) who have to deal w/ the media and their repetitive questions (don't they listen to the briefings?) that appear designed to try to engineer a controversy. To think they have to deal w/ this day-in, day-out during normal times too. I'd have long-since sworn at one of them at those Downing Street briefings.
This, the same media, that was eye deep in the phone hacking scandal, but wrapped themselves in cries of 'press freedom'. You know, I even have some sympathy for Trump's cries of 'fake news' (not much though), having watched so much of this now.

[tigertattie]

Its a all a clusterfeck

Even within the UK you don’t get standardised reporting.

England and Wales are reporting on hospital deaths only (now starting to add as a caveat the care home deaths)
Scotland are reporting combined hospital and care home deaths.
Northern Ireland just don’t seem to have a standardised way of reporting anything.

The tin foil hat in my cupboard tells me that the reason the UK are not doing "test, test, test" is because the government don’t want us to know just how many have been infected by this. If we are not tested, even though we may have it, they can report a lower transmission number.

Anyone who thinks the UK government has done well in any of this needs to have a good long hard look at themselves.

[WELL-PAST-IT]

navyblueshorts, I think you have been looking at a reflection of yourself or maybe Soul Requiem with regard to political bias, the two of you seem to be the only ones on here that believes the government has handled this in anyway well.

I have little time for the press, but the questions that they are asked by the sensible press anyway, are usually to do with the mistakes they have made and the promises / intentions / statements on delivery, that they have not kept, PPE being a prime example.

A lot of the journalists asking the questions usually have a pro-Tory bias in their copy so cannot be seen as trouble makers looking to embarrass the government. They do not need any help with that at the moment.


Oh, and congrats to BoJo and Cary Simmons on the birth of their son, at least he is acknowledging this one.

[lostinwales]

The press situation is a mess. You only have to see how the Piers Morgan thing is panning out. He's gone from being universally loathed (particularly for his friendship with the orange one) to a hero of truth. He'll probably go back the other way when things calm down.

For me though it all comes back to dissembling and distraction from government in the midst of a global crisis. I don't feel that we are all in it together when the government seems to be engaged purely in PR. They don't get a free pass because of the situation. The growth of the conspiracy theories, true and false, is a direct consequence of the lack of governmental clarity. It even seems to be an area that they are actively trying to exploit (PPE down to failures by NHS management, 'we followed the science' , it's all because of those naughty people not social distancing as shown by these year old images/ images with depth perception manipulated, photo shopping etc)

Outside of pandemic prep it is always worth asking if any other government would have been able to make a significantly better fist of things. Time was lost - of that there is no doubt - and that has and will lead to more deaths. But sh!t happens, and we'd be rightly complaining about the number of deaths whatever the actual figures.

[WELL-PAST-IT]

The press situation is a mess. You only have to see how the Piers Morgan thing is panning out. He's gone from being universally loathed (particularly for his friendship with the orange one) to a hero of truth. He'll probably go back the other way when things calm down.

For me though it all comes back to dissembling and distraction from government in the midst of a global crisis. I don't feel that we are all in it together when the government seems to be engaged purely in PR. They don't get a free pass because of the situation. The growth of the conspiracy theories, true and false, is a direct consequence of the lack of governmental clarity. It even seems to be an area that they are actively trying to exploit (PPE down to failures by NHS management, 'we followed the science' , it's all because of those naughty people not social distancing as shown by these year old images/ images with depth perception manipulated, photo shopping etc)

Outside of pandemic prep it is always worth asking if any other government would have been able to make a significantly better fist of things. Time was lost - of that there is no doubt - and that has and will lead to more deaths. But sh!t happens, and we'd be rightly complaining about the number of deaths whatever the actual figures.

A number seem to have done so as we look like topping the European charts in terms of deaths per whatever number you want to use.

[lostinwales]

...

Oh, and congrats to BoJo and Cary Simmons on the birth of their son, at least he is acknowledging this one.

Any excuse to get out of PMQ

[BamBam]

Given he hasn't traditionally acknowledged his children, I imagine Johnson is probably down in the dumps and not quite appreciating all the congratulations!

On the bright side Boris, at least there will be a long line of forelock tuggers ready to service your every need while the lovely Carrie recovers from childbirth.

[lostinwales]

Given he hasn't traditionally acknowledged his children, I imagine Johnson is probably down in the dumps and not quite appreciating all the congratulations!

On the bright side Boris, at least there will be a long line of forelock tuggers ready to service your every need while the lovely Carrie recovers from childbirth.

You implying he's a 'richard' head?

[navyblueshorts]

navyblueshorts, I think you have been looking at a reflection of yourself or maybe Soul Requiem with regard to political bias, the two of you seem to be the only ones on here that believes the government has handled this in anyway well.

I have little time for the press, but the questions that they are asked by the sensible press anyway, are usually to do with the mistakes they have made and the promises / intentions / statements on delivery, that they have not kept, PPE being a prime example.

A lot of the journalists asking the questions usually have a pro-Tory bias in their copy so cannot be seen as trouble makers looking to embarrass the government. They do not need any help with that at the moment.


Oh, and congrats to BoJo and Cary Simmons on the birth of their son, at least he is acknowledging this one.

Thanks for the input. Did you read all of my previous post? Did I say I think UKG have handled this well? No, I chuffing didn't. In actual fact, given the start point, I think they have. The issues are to do w/ early responses - all else has stemmed from that and it's those things they may have to answer for in future.

Had it been Corbyn et al. in power now, I like to think (and I'd certainly have tried) I'd have given him/them the same benefit of the doubt re. their efforts. I certainly wouldn't, as so many here appear to want to do, have jumped to conclusions based on my own politics. Easy for me to say though, I know, as he/they didn't win the 2019 GE.

Anyone who thinks the UK government has done well in any of this needs to have a good long hard look at themselves.

Your opinion, and suggests that those who disagree are somehow 'less' than those who agree w/ that view. We got Brexit how, again?

I think a LOT more people than that need to have a think about how they view news, data, their own bias etc.

[navyblueshorts]

The press situation is a mess. You only have to see how the Piers Morgan thing is panning out. He's gone from being universally loathed (particularly for his friendship with the orange one) to a hero of truth.¹ He'll probably go back the other way when things calm down.

For me though it all comes back to dissembling and distraction from government in the midst of a global crisis. I don't feel that we are all in it together when the government seems to be engaged purely in PR². They don't get a free pass because of the situation. The growth of the conspiracy theories, true and false, is a direct consequence of the lack of governmental clarity. It even seems to be an area that they are actively trying to exploit (PPE down to failures by NHS management, 'we followed the science' , it's all because of those naughty people not social distancing as shown by these year old images/ images with depth perception manipulated, photo shopping etc)

Outside of pandemic prep it is always worth asking if any other government would have been able to make a significantly better fist of things. Time was lost - of that there is no doubt - and that has and will lead to more deaths. But sh!t happens, and we'd be rightly complaining about the number of deaths whatever the actual figures.

¹ I agree w/ Sugar - he's a self-aggrandising piece of work. This is the man who, as Mirror Editor, was sacked for faking images of British soldiers allegedly torturing Iraqis just for a story. A dog turd of the worst kind. Should I give him a second chance? Nah, not over something as low as that.
² You really think that?

[BamBam]

Given he hasn't traditionally acknowledged his children, I imagine Johnson is probably down in the dumps and not quite appreciating all the congratulations!

On the bright side Boris, at least there will be a long line of forelock tuggers ready to service your every need while the lovely Carrie recovers from childbirth.

You implying he's a 'richard' head?

If it's on his head, why are his fans constantly on their knees? Would explain why his ridiculous hair is always flopping over his face though.

[lostinwales]

The press situation is a mess. You only have to see how the Piers Morgan thing is panning out. He's gone from being universally loathed (particularly for his friendship with the orange one) to a hero of truth.¹ He'll probably go back the other way when things calm down.

For me though it all comes back to dissembling and distraction from government in the midst of a global crisis. I don't feel that we are all in it together when the government seems to be engaged purely in PR². They don't get a free pass because of the situation. The growth of the conspiracy theories, true and false, is a direct consequence of the lack of governmental clarity. It even seems to be an area that they are actively trying to exploit (PPE down to failures by NHS management, 'we followed the science' , it's all because of those naughty people not social distancing as shown by these year old images/ images with depth perception manipulated, photo shopping etc)

Outside of pandemic prep it is always worth asking if any other government would have been able to make a significantly better fist of things. Time was lost - of that there is no doubt - and that has and will lead to more deaths. But sh!t happens, and we'd be rightly complaining about the number of deaths whatever the actual figures.

¹ I agree w/ Sugar - he's a self-aggrandising piece of work. This is the man who, as Mirror Editor, was sacked for faking images of British soldiers allegedly torturing Iraqis just for a story. A dog turd of the worst kind. Should I give him a second chance? Nah, not over something as low as that.
² You really think that?

Yes I do. Opacity, dissembling, the latest version of 'the dog ate my homework' (we was following the science innit). Never admitting to cockups. The time and headlines wasted on the Dyson/JCB ventilator. Oh - but hey - shoplifting is down.

This isn't a politics thing. I am not a Tory fan at all, but the animated corpse of Maggie Thatcher could do a better job. I like to feel that we have competent people at the helm (so no - not a fan of Corbyn either)

Re Piers Morgan. He's despicable. It doesn't mean he can't occasionally get something right.

[BamBam]

The reason people are so angry at Piers is because they thought he had joined them in unfailing Johnson worship because of his Brexit stance.

Now he's changed his tune to attack him and the government, their tiny little minds can't cope

[Soul Requiem]

This isn't a politics thing. I am not a Tory fan at all, but the animated corpse of Maggie Thatcher could do a better job.

In fairness I can imagine she'd understand the science behind all this far better than anyone else about in politics at the moment, a big reason why Germany have done so well with Merkel in charge.

[WELL-PAST-IT]

This isn't a politics thing. I am not a Tory fan at all, but the animated corpse of Maggie Thatcher could do a better job.

In fairness I can imagine she'd understand the science behind all this far better than anyone else about in politics at the moment, a big reason why Germany have done so well with Merkel in charge.

There is the problem, no one in the cabinet understands the science. What do I do if I don't understand something, I ask someone who does, not Cummings!

[guildfordbat]

Interestingly perhaps, some reports are suggesting that Cummings pushed the scientists to recommend lockdown.

Without excusing Government incompetence and lack of transparency in any way, I do feel part of the problem is the mealy mouthed nature and indecision of the medical and scientific advisers. That's judging by the ones regularly lined up at the afternoon briefings anyway.

Most would surely agree that we should have locked down earlier and definitely before the Cheltenham Festival and Liverpool's Champions League game. When the review finally takes place as to why we didn't, I hope what the medics and scientists said at the time comes into the mix.

[navyblueshorts]

The press situation is a mess. You only have to see how the Piers Morgan thing is panning out. He's gone from being universally loathed (particularly for his friendship with the orange one) to a hero of truth.¹ He'll probably go back the other way when things calm down.

For me though it all comes back to dissembling and distraction from government in the midst of a global crisis. I don't feel that we are all in it together when the government seems to be engaged purely in PR². They don't get a free pass because of the situation. The growth of the conspiracy theories, true and false, is a direct consequence of the lack of governmental clarity. It even seems to be an area that they are actively trying to exploit (PPE down to failures by NHS management, 'we followed the science' , it's all because of those naughty people not social distancing as shown by these year old images/ images with depth perception manipulated, photo shopping etc)

Outside of pandemic prep it is always worth asking if any other government would have been able to make a significantly better fist of things. Time was lost - of that there is no doubt - and that has and will lead to more deaths. But sh!t happens, and we'd be rightly complaining about the number of deaths whatever the actual figures.

¹ I agree w/ Sugar - he's a self-aggrandising piece of work. This is the man who, as Mirror Editor, was sacked for faking images of British soldiers allegedly torturing Iraqis just for a story. A dog turd of the worst kind. Should I give him a second chance? Nah, not over something as low as that.
² You really think that?

Yes I do. Opacity, dissembling, the latest version of 'the dog ate my homework' (we was following the science innit). Never admitting to cockups. The time and headlines wasted on the Dyson/JCB ventilator. Oh - but hey - shoplifting is down.

This isn't a politics thing. I am not a Tory fan at all, but the animated corpse of Maggie Thatcher could do a better job. I like to feel that we have competent people at the helm (so no - not a fan of Corbyn either)

Re Piers Morgan. He's despicable. It doesn't mean he can't occasionally get something right.

If you actually think that, there's little point discussing anything; they're damned if they do say anything, and damned if they don't. Buck stops w/ them, I know, but the plethora of keyboard 'told you so' warriors is pretty amusing. What do you expect? The Lord God Almighty and some sort of infallible performance? I think they've, generally, done OK given the start. What they should, or shouldn't, have done, when they should have done it and what resource they had at the 'start' is fair game for analysis, but I suggest that should come later - it can't change anything now, can it?

You're correct on Morgan, but even then, I'm not going to give that worm any credit I'm afraid.

[navyblueshorts]

The reason people are so angry at Piers is because they thought he had joined them in unfailing Johnson worship because of his Brexit stance.

Now he's changed his tune to attack him and the government, their tiny little minds can't cope

Do you ever actually post anything that hasn't got a direct, or implied, insult towards one person, or a group of people?

[navyblueshorts]

This isn't a politics thing. I am not a Tory fan at all, but the animated corpse of Maggie Thatcher could do a better job.

In fairness I can imagine she'd understand the science behind all this far better than anyone else about in politics at the moment, a big reason why Germany have done so well with Merkel in charge.

There is the problem, no one in the cabinet understands the science. What do I do if I don't understand something, I ask someone who does, not Cummings!

That is a longstanding problem. Too many lawyers, medics, business people and PPE (no, not protective equipment!) Graduates. Then again, most genuine scientists want to study science, not climb a greasy political pole.

Pity about the unsubstantiated comment re. Cummings .

[navyblueshorts]

Interestingly perhaps, some reports are suggesting that Cummings pushed the scientists to recommend lockdown.

Without excusing Government incompetence and lack of transparency in any way, I do feel part of the problem is the mealy mouthed nature and indecision of the medical and scientific advisers. That's judging by the ones regularly lined up at the afternoon briefings anyway.

Most would surely agree that we should have locked down earlier and definitely before the Cheltenham Festival and Liverpool's Champions League game. When the review finally takes place as to why we didn't, I hope what the medics and scientists said at the time comes into the mix.

I'm not sure what you expect the science advisors to do other than present the data/interpretation/prediction they have and then leave the decisions to the politicians. That's presumably what happened and what should happen.

Re. the latter point, I'm sure that info will be a part of the post-pandemic review. People make mistakes w/ hindsight - if they can honestly look in a mirror and say to themselves that they made what they thought were the best decisions at those times, given info at hand at those times, then I'm not sure it's reasonable to castigate them over it. Same goes for the politicians as well. No doubt any review will be royally ****ed up by the media stirring up a storm and trying to foment controversy throughout the inquiry process.

[BamBam]

The reason people are so angry at Piers is because they thought he had joined them in unfailing Johnson worship because of his Brexit stance.

Now he's changed his tune to attack him and the government, their tiny little minds can't cope

Do you ever actually post anything that hasn't got a direct, or implied, insult towards one person, or a group of people?

Only whiny snowflakes are offended xxx

[guildfordbat]

Interestingly perhaps, some reports are suggesting that Cummings pushed the scientists to recommend lockdown.

Without excusing Government incompetence and lack of transparency in any way, I do feel part of the problem is the mealy mouthed nature and indecision of the medical and scientific advisers. That's judging by the ones regularly lined up at the afternoon briefings anyway.

Most would surely agree that we should have locked down earlier and definitely before the Cheltenham Festival and Liverpool's Champions League game. When the review finally takes place as to why we didn't, I hope what the medics and scientists said at the time comes into the mix.

I'm not sure what you expect the science advisors to do other than present the data/interpretation/prediction they have and then leave the decisions to the politicians. That's presumably what happened and what should happen.

Re. the latter point, I'm sure that info will be a part of the post-pandemic review. People make mistakes w/ hindsight - if they can honestly look in a mirror and say to themselves that they made what they thought were the best decisions at those times, given info at hand at those times, then I'm not sure it's reasonable to castigate them over it. Same goes for the politicians as well. No doubt any review will be royally ****ed up by the media stirring up a storm and trying to foment controversy throughout the inquiry process.

Did you see Whitty when asked at one of the recent briefings if Cummings had attended a SAGE meeting? He couldn't even say yes or no.

[Dolphin Ziggler]

Nothing is ever going to be substantiated if we can't take any of the Cummings stuff reported by all sides of the argument as anything but rumour.

If you want to look at why the press and politicians have such a weird relationship, unfortunately it is down to politicians. It's a shame journalism in this country is so awash with influence, so much so that you should really compare it with it's sporting colleagues to see how different the standards are.

[lostinwales]

This isn't a politics thing. I am not a Tory fan at all, but the animated corpse of Maggie Thatcher could do a better job.

In fairness I can imagine she'd understand the science behind all this far better than anyone else about in politics at the moment, a big reason why Germany have done so well with Merkel in charge.

There is the problem, no one in the cabinet understands the science. What do I do if I don't understand something, I ask someone who does, not Cummings!

That is a longstanding problem. Too many lawyers, medics, business people and PPE (no, not protective equipment!) Graduates. Then again, most genuine scientists want to study science, not climb a greasy political pole.

Pity about the unsubstantiated comment re. Cummings .

I'll settle for just being annoyed about the PPE grads who only ever know politics. The others have at least spent some time in the real world, however brief. Lack of scientific knowledge in parliament and in media in general is a tragedy, but that is probably a separate conversation. We live in a country that is very good at producing scientists, engineers and experts of all kinds, then spends huge amounts of time talking them down or ignoring them. Merkel's hard science background gives her the kind of natural authority when discussing CV19 that our clowns could only dream of.

Cummings - there were stories a few weeks back that he had been pushing to keep the country open then changed his mind when evidence from new modelling came out. I guess the country has every right to ask questions of unelected bureaucrats.

[lostinwales]

Latest coverage suggests that 1/3 people admitted to hospital with CV19 die. 1/2 have recovered and gone home, the remaining 1/6 are still there.

This thing is brutal.

[Dolphin Ziggler]

IT'S JUST THE FLU OR SOMETHING, LET MY PEOPLE GO

[lostinwales]

Interestingly perhaps, some reports are suggesting that Cummings pushed the scientists to recommend lockdown.

Without excusing Government incompetence and lack of transparency in any way, I do feel part of the problem is the mealy mouthed nature and indecision of the medical and scientific advisers. That's judging by the ones regularly lined up at the afternoon briefings anyway.

Most would surely agree that we should have locked down earlier and definitely before the Cheltenham Festival and Liverpool's Champions League game. When the review finally takes place as to why we didn't, I hope what the medics and scientists said at the time comes into the mix.

I'm not sure what you expect the science advisors to do other than present the data/interpretation/prediction they have and then leave the decisions to the politicians. That's presumably what happened and what should happen.

Re. the latter point, I'm sure that info will be a part of the post-pandemic review. People make mistakes w/ hindsight - if they can honestly look in a mirror and say to themselves that they made what they thought were the best decisions at those times, given info at hand at those times, then I'm not sure it's reasonable to castigate them over it. Same goes for the politicians as well. No doubt any review will be royally ****ed up by the media stirring up a storm and trying to foment controversy throughout the inquiry process.

Yes - this is what I have been saying. We have to be careful about how and where we criticize the government, sticking to the facts as far as possible. I still feel they have gone above and beyond as far as screwing things up goes - hence the Panorama program.

[123456789.]

Ipsos Mori has the Journalists having a net 15+ approval rating on asking the government questions. YouGov also did a poll earlier this week, the talk of the media losing the faith of the people by holding the government to account is rubbish. The level of trust for Journalists has remained consistent throughout the crisis. The upmarket papers are on just under fifty percent trust. The midmarket well below. The downmarket ones well below them.
We have become incredibly polarised as a nation in recent years. The leave campaign managed to cultivate a populist us against them mentality. Pinning all the anger and discontent on a 'liberal elite' that frankly doesn't exit. On the other side Remainers have hardly covered themselves in glory by regularly denouncing Leavers as racist. Labour elected a moron as their leader who did nothing in the referendum itself. Corbyn has a pretty chequered past, getting himself pictured with terrorists and presiding over a shambolic response to antisemitism. Johnson is equally undesirable. He has a history of saying racist things, he has pretty shady links to Russian businessmen and is a pathological liar. There's no wonder that things have become so vitriolic in recent years.
People have filtered into two camps, both view themselves as the authentic voice of the country. Johnson already has a l'etat c'est moi complex. He is very much so the head of the leave camp. The leave camp voted him in as Prime Minister in November. People therefore take attacks on him personally; despite the fact he has cheated on his wives, he has said racist things, he did, to use his phrase, 'spaff money up the wall'. That has continued into this crisis. So even though the divisions of the last few years are irrelevant to all of this people have kept in their camps. We have not done very well during it. When journalists call out the government on its failings on testing, on PPE, on the PM's absence, on the fact we have the one of the worst death rates in Europe, if not the worst, it's easier to criticise the journalists for exposing it rather than blame the person responsible for it when they voted for the man in question.
I'm afraid this notion that the government made mistakes but that's okay as long as their heart was in the right place is utter shoite. They are the government of the United Kingdom. Not a children's rugby team. It is their job to make the right decisions in difficult situations and if they can't manage that in a situation as serious as this then people die. When as many people die as have died and it's clear the government has made mistakes that significantly contributed to that, then it is a government that is not fit for purpose. It is not good versus evil, it's competent against incompetent. Even if you do want to play the thousands died but that is okay because you tried your best, I'm not sure you can argue that Johnson's heart was in the right place when he was quite literally not in the right place.

[123456789.]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-gilead-remdesivir/gileads-remdesivir-meets-main-goal-of-trial-in-covid-19-patients-idUSKBN22B1T9?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=twitter

This is really, really, really good news.


Edit: On further reading, not that good news but still quite good news.

[rodders]

Interestingly perhaps, some reports are suggesting that Cummings pushed the scientists to recommend lockdown.

Without excusing Government incompetence and lack of transparency in any way, I do feel part of the problem is the mealy mouthed nature and indecision of the medical and scientific advisers. That's judging by the ones regularly lined up at the afternoon briefings anyway.

Most would surely agree that we should have locked down earlier and definitely before the Cheltenham Festival and Liverpool's Champions League game. When the review finally takes place as to why we didn't, I hope what the medics and scientists said at the time comes into the mix.

I'm not sure what you expect the science advisors to do other than present the data/interpretation/prediction they have and then leave the decisions to the politicians. That's presumably what happened and what should happen.

Re. the latter point, I'm sure that info will be a part of the post-pandemic review. People make mistakes w/ hindsight - if they can honestly look in a mirror and say to themselves that they made what they thought were the best decisions at those times, given info at hand at those times, then I'm not sure it's reasonable to castigate them over it. Same goes for the politicians as well. No doubt any review will be royally ****ed up by the media stirring up a storm and trying to foment controversy throughout the inquiry process.

Did you see Whitty when asked at one of the recent briefings if Cummings had attended a SAGE meeting? He couldn't even say yes or no.

Of course he can't Cummings is his boss. Not only is he running the Tory party via his cabinet of right wing puppets, SAGE is now reduced to a handpicked bunch of quacks and yes men which is why there is such a lack of transparency around membership and evidence for government decisions.

[navyblueshorts]

The reason people are so angry at Piers is because they thought he had joined them in unfailing Johnson worship because of his Brexit stance.

Now he's changed his tune to attack him and the government, their tiny little minds can't cope

Do you ever actually post anything that hasn't got a direct, or implied, insult towards one person, or a group of people?

Only whiny snowflakes are offended xxx

Q.E.D. :yawn:

[rodders]

Latest coverage suggests that 1/3 people admitted to hospital with CV19 die. 1/2 have recovered and gone home, the remaining 1/6 are still there.

This thing is brutal.

And this is exactly in line with the evidence of this since it hit Italy. Almost the same number die as recover.

But it's ok he UK Gov will just fudge figures a bit so it won't seem so bad and then we can all go back to work and carry on as normal.

Here's one to remember when they tell everyone kids can return to school as no evidence they transmit the disease -

https://zoonosen.charite.de/fileadmin/user_upload/microsites/m_cc05/virologie-ccm/dateien_upload/Weitere_Dateien/analysis-of-SARS-CoV-2-viral-load-by-patient-age.pdf

#guidedByScience

[navyblueshorts]

Interestingly perhaps, some reports are suggesting that Cummings pushed the scientists to recommend lockdown.

Without excusing Government incompetence and lack of transparency in any way, I do feel part of the problem is the mealy mouthed nature and indecision of the medical and scientific advisers. That's judging by the ones regularly lined up at the afternoon briefings anyway.

Most would surely agree that we should have locked down earlier and definitely before the Cheltenham Festival and Liverpool's Champions League game. When the review finally takes place as to why we didn't, I hope what the medics and scientists said at the time comes into the mix.

I'm not sure what you expect the science advisors to do other than present the data/interpretation/prediction they have and then leave the decisions to the politicians. That's presumably what happened and what should happen.

Re. the latter point, I'm sure that info will be a part of the post-pandemic review. People make mistakes w/ hindsight - if they can honestly look in a mirror and say to themselves that they made what they thought were the best decisions at those times, given info at hand at those times, then I'm not sure it's reasonable to castigate them over it. Same goes for the politicians as well. No doubt any review will be royally ****ed up by the media stirring up a storm and trying to foment controversy throughout the inquiry process.

Did you see Whitty when asked at one of the recent briefings if Cummings had attended a SAGE meeting? He couldn't even say yes or no.

So? Maybe Cummings hasn't attended all of them? Maybe Whitty hasn't? They do have other things to do I guess. Don't much care anymore tbh. This constant and active searching for sticks to beat people with is a pretty poor reflection of the state of political discourse in the UK now.

[navyblueshorts]

This isn't a politics thing. I am not a Tory fan at all, but the animated corpse of Maggie Thatcher could do a better job.

In fairness I can imagine she'd understand the science behind all this far better than anyone else about in politics at the moment, a big reason why Germany have done so well with Merkel in charge.

There is the problem, no one in the cabinet understands the science. What do I do if I don't understand something, I ask someone who does, not Cummings!

That is a longstanding problem. Too many lawyers, medics, business people and PPE (no, not protective equipment!) Graduates. Then again, most genuine scientists want to study science, not climb a greasy political pole.

Pity about the unsubstantiated comment re. Cummings .

I'll settle for just being annoyed about the PPE grads who only ever know politics. The others have at least spent some time in the real world, however brief. Lack of scientific knowledge in parliament and in media in general is a tragedy, but that is probably a separate conversation. We live in a country that is very good at producing scientists, engineers and experts of all kinds, then spends huge amounts of time talking them down or ignoring them. Merkel's hard science background gives her the kind of natural authority when discussing CV19 that our clowns could only dream of.

Cummings - there were stories a few weeks back that he had been pushing to keep the country open then changed his mind when evidence from new modelling came out. I guess the country has every right to ask questions of unelected bureaucrats.

Agreed, although Merkel is a physicist - I daresay even she has to lean on the virologists/epidemiologists etc somewhat. Re. Cummings though, it's fine to ask questions, but the ad nauseam assumptions that he's some sort of evil Svengali are getting just a little bit boring now.

[navyblueshorts]

Ipsos Mori has the Journalists having a net 15+ approval rating on asking the government questions. YouGov also did a poll earlier this week, the talk of the media losing the faith of the people by holding the government to account is rubbish. The level of trust for Journalists has remained consistent throughout the crisis. The upmarket papers are on just under fifty percent trust. The midmarket well below. The downmarket ones well below them.
We have become incredibly polarised as a nation in recent years. The leave campaign managed to cultivate a populist us against them mentality. Pinning all the anger and discontent on a 'liberal elite' that frankly doesn't exit. On the other side Remainers have hardly covered themselves in glory by regularly denouncing Leavers as racist. Labour elected a moron as their leader who did nothing in the referendum itself. Corbyn has a pretty chequered past, getting himself pictured with terrorists and presiding over a shambolic response to antisemitism. Johnson is equally undesirable. He has a history of saying racist things, he has pretty shady links to Russian businessmen and is a pathological liar. There's no wonder that things have become so vitriolic in recent years.
People have filtered into two camps, both view themselves as the authentic voice of the country. Johnson already has a l'etat c'est moi complex. He is very much so the head of the leave camp. The leave camp voted him in as Prime Minister in November. People therefore take attacks on him personally; despite the fact he has cheated on his wives, he has said racist things, he did, to use his phrase, 'spaff money up the wall'. That has continued into this crisis. So even though the divisions of the last few years are irrelevant to all of this people have kept in their camps. We have not done very well during it. When journalists call out the government on its failings on testing, on PPE, on the PM's absence, on the fact we have the one of the worst death rates in Europe, if not the worst, it's easier to criticise the journalists for exposing it rather than blame the person responsible for it when they voted for the man in question.
I'm afraid this notion that the government made mistakes but that's okay as long as their heart was in the right place is utter shoite. They are the government of the United Kingdom. Not a children's rugby team. It is their job to make the right decisions in difficult situations and if they can't manage that in a situation as serious as this then people die. When as many people die as have died and it's clear the government has made mistakes that significantly contributed to that, then it is a government that is not fit for purpose. It is not good versus evil, it's competent against incompetent. Even if you do want to play the thousands died but that is okay because you tried your best, I'm not sure you can argue that Johnson's heart was in the right place when he was quite literally not in the right place.

Good post. My main issue w/ the journalists is them stirring for the sake of stirring and the fact they're asking the same questions over and over again, even when properly answered. That and the fact they're created a network of leaks, allowing every individual with how ever dubious a gripe or political agenda to undermine the workings of Government. They've done that, but then appear to wonder why UKG doesn't work as well as they think it should. The lack of self-awareness while at the same time crying "press freedom!" is nauseating. To be clear, I'm in no way saying we shouldn't have a free press, but the relationship between media and politics is, IMO, poisoned and has been for some time.

Your last para is an interesting one, but appears to be expecting that a Government must be infallible, or else it's shoite. They're only people; they'll  **** up.

[Sponsored content]