The Covid-19 serious chat thread

[RDW]

First topic message reminder :

A thread set up to house the more serious chat relating to the global pandemic.

Nothing has changed in what we expect from discussions on here though:

- Please treat each other with respect
- Avoid hyperbole and fake news
- This thread shouldn't be used for a political soapbox, but political discussion will likely happen. See point 1!

A reminder that we have a community thread here for people to vent, look for help and all round support each other. https://www.606v2.com/t69506-the-covid-19-community-thread#3896653

[Crimey]

This isn't a politics thing. I am not a Tory fan at all, but the animated corpse of Maggie Thatcher could do a better job.

In fairness I can imagine she'd understand the science behind all this far better than anyone else about in politics at the moment, a big reason why Germany have done so well with Merkel in charge.

There is the problem, no one in the cabinet understands the science. What do I do if I don't understand something, I ask someone who does, not Cummings!

That is a longstanding problem. Too many lawyers, medics, business people and PPE (no, not protective equipment!) Graduates. Then again, most genuine scientists want to study science, not climb a greasy political pole.

Pity about the unsubstantiated comment re. Cummings .

I'll settle for just being annoyed about the PPE grads who only ever know politics. The others have at least spent some time in the real world, however brief. Lack of scientific knowledge in parliament and in media in general is a tragedy, but that is probably a separate conversation. We live in a country that is very good at producing scientists, engineers and experts of all kinds, then spends huge amounts of time talking them down or ignoring them. Merkel's hard science background gives her the kind of natural authority when discussing CV19 that our clowns could only dream of.

Cummings - there were stories a few weeks back that he had been pushing to keep the country open then changed his mind when evidence from new modelling came out. I guess the country has every right to ask questions of unelected bureaucrats.

Agreed, although Merkel is a physicist - I daresay even she has to lean on the virologists/epidemiologists etc somewhat. Re. Cummings though, it's fine to ask questions, but the ad nauseam assumptions that he's some sort of evil Svengali are getting just a little bit boring now.

The problem I have with Cummings is he's an idiot (as evidenced by his absolutely awful blogs) - but seems to wield a lot of influence across many areas of government.

[navyblueshorts]

Interestingly perhaps, some reports are suggesting that Cummings pushed the scientists to recommend lockdown.

Without excusing Government incompetence and lack of transparency in any way, I do feel part of the problem is the mealy mouthed nature and indecision of the medical and scientific advisers. That's judging by the ones regularly lined up at the afternoon briefings anyway.

Most would surely agree that we should have locked down earlier and definitely before the Cheltenham Festival and Liverpool's Champions League game. When the review finally takes place as to why we didn't, I hope what the medics and scientists said at the time comes into the mix.

I'm not sure what you expect the science advisors to do other than present the data/interpretation/prediction they have and then leave the decisions to the politicians. That's presumably what happened and what should happen.

Re. the latter point, I'm sure that info will be a part of the post-pandemic review. People make mistakes w/ hindsight - if they can honestly look in a mirror and say to themselves that they made what they thought were the best decisions at those times, given info at hand at those times, then I'm not sure it's reasonable to castigate them over it. Same goes for the politicians as well. No doubt any review will be royally ****ed up by the media stirring up a storm and trying to foment controversy throughout the inquiry process.

Did you see Whitty when asked at one of the recent briefings if Cummings had attended a SAGE meeting? He couldn't even say yes or no.

Of course he can't Cummings is his boss. Not only is he running the Tory party via his cabinet of right wing puppets, SAGE is now reduced to a handpicked bunch of quacks and yes men which is why there is such a lack of transparency around membership and evidence for government decisions.
 

The very definition of non sequitur. If it's so opaque, how is it that you know it's filled w/ quacks and 'yes' men?

[navyblueshorts]

Latest coverage suggests that 1/3 people admitted to hospital with CV19 die. 1/2 have recovered and gone home, the remaining 1/6 are still there.

This thing is brutal.

And this is exactly in line with the evidence of this since it hit Italy. Almost the same number die as recover.

But it's ok he UK Gov will just fudge figures a bit so it won't seem so bad and then we can all go back to work and carry on as normal.

Here's one to remember when they tell everyone kids can return to school as no evidence they transmit the disease -

https://zoonosen.charite.de/fileadmin/user_upload/microsites/m_cc05/virologie-ccm/dateien_upload/Weitere_Dateien/analysis-of-SARS-CoV-2-viral-load-by-patient-age.pdf

#guidedByScience

Ta for that link; interesting. Complicated somewhat, however, by route of transmission - if, in general, kids are asymptomatic and it's spread via coughing etc, the risk of spread due to kids will be a lot lower even if loads approx. the same. Then again, young kids are all over each other in playgrounds etc, generally closer contact? Tough one.

How is it you think UKG will be able to 'fudge figures'?

[123456789.]

Cummings certainly is not stupid. I don't think he's as smart as people think he is but he isn't stupid. People seem to convince themselves he has had genius ideas that produce shocks from nowhere. The 2019 election being the case in point. For some reason, unfathomable to me, Boris Johnson is popular amongst working class people in this country. They produced a manifesto promising change and improvements across the country in quite simple terms. They also picked up the votes of people angry at an elite that doesn't really exist. Corbyn is not a smart man and was not surrounded by smart people. He promised too much. He also seemed to be a grown up version of the patronising University socialist that people find so nauseating. My Great-Uncle could have provided a winning strategy for the Tories in that election and he still thinks David Cameron is Prime Minister.
Equally, if you believe the narrative before the referendum began Leave had no chance whatsoever and Cummings took them over the line single-handed. That is also rubbish there is a latent Euro-scepticism that runs deep in this country. Farage and the like have been running a jingoistic, anti-Europe campaign for nearly three decades with the help of much of the press. Cummings merely provided the icing on the cake. I don't think he's a once in a generation evil genius but he is not an idiot.

The Telegraph are reporting today that Cummings did speak up in Sage and spoke up in favour of a lockdown. Now, if that's true, it's a bit of an issue for those of us who despise the government. Because, broadly speaking, we spoke out in favour of a lockdown and view Johnson's Clark Kent, herd immunity, stay open mantra that we began with as a dangerous strategy that cost thousands of lives. The evidence suggests we were probably right. Countries that locked down earlier have saved more lives and been able to open up earlier. But what do we do now Cummings is on the same side as us? Even more worrying if Cummings wanted a lockdown and it didn't happen it suggests that the Prime Minister has more power in this government than we dared fear. I suggest we avoid such questions and instead focus on the fact that yesterday Priti Patel told a select committee that we haven't imposed travel restrictions because there are not enough people coming in to warrant them, and we haven't imposed quarantine measures because there are too many people for it to be practical. We have a geographic advantage in this situation being an Island. Not as remote as New Zealand, but still, they have shown that can be used to their advantage in this situation. Instead we have allowed unfettered access to the country because we have both too few and too many people arriving. I never thought I would be arguing that Priti Patel was too lax on immigration, being pretty pro-immigration myself where she presumably feels that her own grandparents were coming over here taking her jobs. Nevertheless, it just goes to show that the sky can fall in, a pandemic can sweep across the world, UFOs can fly by and there is still the ever present comfort of Priti Patel's unquenchable thirst to simply be more stupid than the day before.

Your last para is an interesting one, but appears to be expecting that a Government must be infallible, or else it's shoite. They're only people; they'll  **** up.

I think there's a fine line to be tread here and it's not an easy question to answer. As a starting point doing their best and doing what they believe to be right should be a given - pure and simple. Every person makes mistake and every government is going to because they're made up of people. However in the midst of a crisis I think it is reasonable to expect them to get most things right. A lot of it is conjecture at this stage. Nonetheless the evidence suggests that our government has been behind the curve on most elements of this crisis and it looks as if we are going to have the worst death rate in Europe. I don't think it's asking too much to do better than that. No one doubted that Jeremy Corbyn would give his best to the job if he'd won the election, just that if he had won it his best would not have been good enough. Now it looks as if the same applies to Johnson. I do think it would be a smart time for him to focus on his health and his family and allow his Chancellor to take over. A few years of Starmer against Sunak with occasional interjections from Ed Davey would be an enormous step up from anything we've had for years. Certainly better than Johnson waffling, Corbyn shouting and Swinson screaming.

[navyblueshorts]

Agree w/ a lot of that.

...But what do we do now Cummings is on the same side as us? Even more worrying if Cummings wanted a lockdown and it didn't happen it suggests that the Prime Minister has more power in this government than we dared fear. I suggest we avoid such questions...

Interesting question. Comments anyone?

To be fair to Patel (and I neither like her nor think she should have been allowed anywhere near one of the great offices of State), the issues re. immigration to the UK have been explained. If C-19 is already rife within Uk population, what's the point of preventing a few more coming in? The added numbers aren't significant. Once (if ever!) we have infections into the handfuls/per week, then it would make sense to go back to where we started i.e. quarantining/testing those coming in. Do we somehow know better?

Re. the last point, I guess I agree. You'd expect people to do their best, no matter what. To assume deliberate sabotaging is tinfoil of the highest order I think. Death rates etc, and their comparisons, are really pretty meaningless as a measure at the moment - too many variables and unknowns. Still, it gives people the opportunity to have some sort of badly evidenced, perverse p!ssing contest just to be able to say "Told you so! We're the worst on the planet."

Think Sunak is definitely one to watch.

[navyblueshorts]

On a lighter(?) note, saw this:



Some bits a little cringy maybe? Wise words though, Dave.

[Soul Requiem]

Sunak is ordinarily a pretty hardline Brexiteer and Thatcherite to boot. He has shone brighter than anyone during this crisis but careful what you wish for long term if you're of a particular persuasion.

[WELL-PAST-IT]

When Johnson was Mayor of London he was a pretty hard line Europhile. Strange how politicians change the minds to suit the mood.

[123456789.]

Sunak is ordinarily a pretty hardline Brexiteer and Thatcherite to boot. He has shone brighter than anyone during this crisis but careful what you wish for long term if you're of a particular persuasion.

I'm a pretty staunch Europhile, to the extent I'm not really against a Federal Europe. But that argument is over and will be for the foreseeable future. I think it's better to assess people in their utility in the here and now rather than in a previous debate or one in the long term future. Indeed I think if we're to have any proper political discussion on anything we need to move past Brexit. This pandemic has shown that more clearly than anything else. Yet, if you look at Twitter those with Union flags on their profile seem to think Johnson is Churchill, those with EU flags think he's Hitler. I think that's pretty unhealthy.
I read Johnson's Dream of Rome a couple of years back and he seems pretty ardently pro-European in that too. He didn't expect Leave to win. A cynic would suggest that he realised being in favour of leave would make him the Darling of the Tory grass roots and set him up to beat Osborne in a future leadership contest.

[WELL-PAST-IT]

Sunak is ordinarily a pretty hardline Brexiteer and Thatcherite to boot. He has shone brighter than anyone during this crisis but careful what you wish for long term if you're of a particular persuasion.

I'm a pretty staunch Europhile, to the extent I'm not really against a Federal Europe. But that argument is over and will be for the foreseeable future. I think it's better to assess people in their utility in the here and now rather than in a previous debate or one in the long term future.
I read Johnson's Dream of Rome a couple of years back and he seems pretty ardently pro-European in that too. He didn't expect Leave to win. A cynic would suggest that he realised being in favour of leave would make him the Darling of the Tory grass roots and set him up to beat Osborne in a future leadership contest.

Numbers, you wouldn't suggest that a politician could be two faced are you? Shocking!

[123456789.]

Sunak is ordinarily a pretty hardline Brexiteer and Thatcherite to boot. He has shone brighter than anyone during this crisis but careful what you wish for long term if you're of a particular persuasion.

I'm a pretty staunch Europhile, to the extent I'm not really against a Federal Europe. But that argument is over and will be for the foreseeable future. I think it's better to assess people in their utility in the here and now rather than in a previous debate or one in the long term future.
I read Johnson's Dream of Rome a couple of years back and he seems pretty ardently pro-European in that too. He didn't expect Leave to win. A cynic would suggest that he realised being in favour of leave would make him the Darling of the Tory grass roots and set him up to beat Osborne in a future leadership contest.

Numbers, you wouldn't suggest that a politician could be two faced are you? Shocking!  

The real question is whether Boris Johnson has more faces or children.

[Soul Requiem]

Sunak is ordinarily a pretty hardline Brexiteer and Thatcherite to boot. He has shone brighter than anyone during this crisis but careful what you wish for long term if you're of a particular persuasion.

I'm a pretty staunch Europhile, to the extent I'm not really against a Federal Europe. But that argument is over and will be for the foreseeable future. I think it's better to assess people in their utility in the here and now rather than in a previous debate or one in the long term future. Indeed I think if we're to have any proper political discussion on anything we need to move past Brexit. This pandemic has shown that more clearly than anything else. Yet, if you look at Twitter those with Union flags on their profile seem to think Johnson is Churchill, those with EU flags think he's Hitler. I think that's pretty unhealthy.
I read Johnson's Dream of Rome a couple of years back and he seems pretty ardently pro-European in that too. He didn't expect Leave to win. A cynic would suggest that he realised being in favour of leave would make him the Darling of the Tory grass roots and set him up to beat Osborne in a future leadership contest.

His eurosceptic views back in the 90's had John Major looking to block his entry into the party so I'd say you're wide of the mark there.

[123456789.]

Sunak is ordinarily a pretty hardline Brexiteer and Thatcherite to boot. He has shone brighter than anyone during this crisis but careful what you wish for long term if you're of a particular persuasion.

I'm a pretty staunch Europhile, to the extent I'm not really against a Federal Europe. But that argument is over and will be for the foreseeable future. I think it's better to assess people in their utility in the here and now rather than in a previous debate or one in the long term future. Indeed I think if we're to have any proper political discussion on anything we need to move past Brexit. This pandemic has shown that more clearly than anything else. Yet, if you look at Twitter those with Union flags on their profile seem to think Johnson is Churchill, those with EU flags think he's Hitler. I think that's pretty unhealthy.
I read Johnson's Dream of Rome a couple of years back and he seems pretty ardently pro-European in that too. He didn't expect Leave to win. A cynic would suggest that he realised being in favour of leave would make him the Darling of the Tory grass roots and set him up to beat Osborne in a future leadership contest.

His eurosceptic views back in the 90's had John Major looking to block his entry into the party so I'd say you're wide of the mark there.

I believe John Major tried to block his candidacy because his fallacious stories about the European Union were fuelling the "b*stards" on his own backbenches. In his book 'Dream of Rome', he seems pretty pro-European. Indeed, he quite persuasively argued in favour of Turkish membership. He certainly convinced me. A few years on he was pretty happy to pump inaccurate stories of imminent Turkish membership in the referendum. I don't think he's secretly pro-European, I think he's calculating and says what he needs to say in certain situations to get where he wants to be. You have accurately portrayed, yet another side to Johnson, so we are now up to three faced. I think Tony Benn once admitted that he had a grudging respect for Thatcher. Arguing that in politics you have singposts who argue consistently for one course that they believe to be right and weather-vanes that simply follow which way the wind is blowing. Boris Johnson seems pretty firmly in the latter category. I think a particularly reliable rule of thumb in British politics is that if Boris Johnson says one thing, the chances are he has also said the opposite. As you have pointed out many times to many people on here, I don't know him personally but I don't think it's beyond the realms of possibility that a man sacked twice for lying, one of those times about having an affair may not be completely honest all of the time.

[MrInvisible]

On the reporting front, today we had number of non-hospital Covid-19 deaths added to the hospital deaths, so from this point on we should have a more accurate understanding of the full picture.

Looking at the hospital deaths on https://covid19-uk.co.uk/, the 7 day average is now 22% lower compared to what in was in the previous 7 days. I also had a look at the number of positive cases. The weekly increase in positive cases is now at 23%, compared to 16% this time last week. I've seen figures from my local hospital showing that Covid-19 admissions peaked a month ago, and are now half of what they were then. Things starting to look a lot better, though the number of cases in care homes is still a v big cause for concern.

I feel the government line at the moment on 'too early to lift the lockdown' is right, though they do need to be more open with the public on setting out the different stages the country can take to ease out of lockdown. Macron and Merkel have been v good at this, and my view is that if the government is a bit more explicit on what the plan is going forward they may get more compliance, as there are increasing signs of 'lockdown fatigue'.

[hampo17]

Hearing the PM say that we past the peak was interesting, obviously as a country this is great news but the health board here in North Wales are stating that we haven't even reached the peak for this area, and it is not expected to be reached until the middle of May.

What concerns me is that the country gets the lockdown lifted and then areas such as this see a sharp increase in new cases and deaths.

[Soul Requiem]

After the debacle of mothers day I do fear what will happen if measures are eased if only slightly, too many will take that as an invitation to the beach again.

[123456789.]

I think I'm right in saying that Germany has eased their lockdown slightly and seen an uptick in the number of cases. I suspect there won't be even a partial lifting until that NHS tracker app is running with a significant number of users and our testing numbers are way up. Daniel Hannan, the ex MEP, basically argues that the purpose of lockdown is not a measure to counter coronavirus directly but rather a mechanism to ensure that the NHS is not overwhelmed. If that is the case then we could operate on the basis that if the NHS reaches a certain capacity then we re-enter lockdown. If the purpose is to drive cases down so that they are almost non-existent and then track the ones we do have then I suspect it'll some time yet.

[lostinwales]

When Johnson was Mayor of London he was a pretty hard line Europhile. Strange how politicians change the minds to suit the mood.

There is that quote about him - that he watches to see which way the crowd is going then runs to the front and shouts 'follow me'

[lostinwales]

I think I'm right in saying that Germany has eased their lockdown slightly and seen an uptick in the number of cases. I suspect there won't be even a partial lifting until that NHS tracker app is running with a significant number of users and our testing numbers are way up. Daniel Hannan, the ex MEP, basically argues that the purpose of lockdown is not a measure to counter coronavirus directly but rather a mechanism to ensure that the NHS is not overwhelmed. If that is the case then we could operate on the basis that if the NHS reaches a certain capacity then we re-enter lockdown. If the purpose is to drive cases down so that they are almost non-existent and then track the ones we do have then I suspect it'll some time yet.  

If that is so then judging the timing of a lockdown is further complicated because of the expected 3 week lag (or whatever) between the start of the lockdown and it making a difference.

[123456789.]

When Johnson was Mayor of London he was a pretty hard line Europhile. Strange how politicians change the minds to suit the mood.

There is that quote about him - that he watches to see which way the crowd is going then runs to the front and shouts 'follow me'

I believe it was Michael Heseltine who made that judgement. He's been mentioned before in this debate. I believe Soul said that he was one of the greatest Prime Ministers this country has never had on the very first page. I may be wrong on that but it seems unlikely.

“Well, I think that you have to see Boris as a career map. He works it out, he decides which way the wind is blowing, and that wonderful phrase about a politician - a man who waits to see the way the crowd is running and then dashes in front and says, ‘Follow me’.”

[tigertattie]

Hearing the PM say that we past the peak was interesting, obviously as a country this is great news but the health board here in North Wales are stating that we haven't even reached the peak for this area, and it is not expected to be reached until the middle of May.

What concerns me is that the country gets the lockdown lifted and then areas such as this see a sharp increase in new cases and deaths.

You forget that when they say "The country" they actually mean "London"

London has had its peak. Places like Newcastle, North Wales, etc, aint yet.

This is why Westminster have been making rumblings about opening up but the Scottish Government have said it's too soon to look at here. Case in point, home builders in England will go back to work on Monday, in Scotland they wont.

[hampo17]

No I understand they're talking about London Tiger, sadly the Welsh government has zero backbone and if BoJo says remove lockdown they'll follow suit.

[tigertattie]

Crikey. Thats the complete opposite to our government who do exactly the opposite thing that Westminster say!

[123456789.]

So the government have managed to pull of a bit of propaganda and just decided to lie about reaching 100,000 tests a day. Turns out 40,000 of them are tests they've just sent home. It's disappointing they have decided to spin a web of bullsh*t because the increase is impressive in a short period of time regardless. In reality it doesn't really matter if the government has reached an arbitrary number of tests on an arbitrary date.  Firstly, because the facts show the capacity is now above 100,000 even if the number is not. Secondly, what is important is that the number of tests stay at that level throughout.

Nonetheless, it is important not to let this alter the fact that up until this point testing has been a national disgrace. I can't find out how many tests per day Germany is doing at the moment, but it reached 100,000 a day a month before we did. Some people will try to say that is because they had great capability to begin with but that is complete nonsense..

In October 2019, researchers at John Hopkins University created a Global Health Security (GHS) Index to rank countries according to their "capability to prevent and mitigate epidemics and pandemics". The researchers ranked the UK as "most prepared" overall, placing it 2nd out of 195. The researchers ranked the UK as "most prepared" overall, placing it 2nd out of 195. The UK was apparently also the best in the world in many categories including "real time surveillance and reporting". So how does this square up with the government's catastrophic failure to ramp up testing for Covid-19? On 7 April, chief medical officer Chris Whitty admitted there was "a lot to learn from Germany" on mass testing. Yet Germany was ranked below the UK in the GHS index for both testing and response plans. The difference is that the government in Germany moved more quickly, while the UK sat on its hands.
Despite Johnson's confidence at the start of the month, it has since been revealed that his government made no request to labs for help with staff or testing equipment until the middle of March.

[hampo17]

A pecentage of those 100,000 tests will be retests they've done as well. The BBC were outed earlier this week for announcing the government had done 33,000 tests but failing to clarify that over half of these were retests.

[Pr4wn]

A proven liar continues to lie. I'm shocked.

[WELL-PAST-IT]

45,000 of them are test kits sent out to key workers homes and care homes, the tests have not been done and there is no tracking scheme in place to trace contact with infected people.

That is a one off and should not form part of the figures, only the amounts of test analysed in the labs should be stated as "test". More manipulation of the facts and figures by this government.

[123456789.]

45,000 of them are test kits sent out to key workers homes and care homes, the tests have not been done and there is no tracking scheme in place to trace contact with infected people.

That is a one off and should not form part of the figures, only the amounts of test analysed in the labs should be stated as "test". More manipulation of the facts and figures by this government.

If those 40,000 are a daily occurrence from now I don't think it's a big deal. In fact it's a positive. In time those 40,000 will be returned and the real numbers will reflect the Johnson numbers. If they desperately sent 40,000 tests out to people to meet an arbitrary target they set to make up for the fact their ineptitude has killed thousands then it's shameful.

[WELL-PAST-IT]

I believe they are sending out more, but not in such numbers. Surly, the 100,000 has to be taken as the number of tests taken and analysed, earlier this week they only had 30K people tested and mostly analysed; I cannot believe that in a few days they have managed to get that number up to the 120K they are now quoting, even allowing for the home kits sent out.

[123456789.]

There's basically no question at all that we didn't do 120,000 tests on Thursday. It's whether the number they put out accurately reflects our actual capacity from now on. In that from now on they will send out 40,000 tests a day on top of the tests they are doing at centre and that they will be testing those homekits at the same speed they receive them in which case numbers of over 100,000 a day will become a regularity. If so credit where credit is due it is a decent improvement (not changing the fact it should have been reached weeks if not months ago and people have died because it wasn't). If it is the case that we sent out a disproportionate number of tests on Thursday in a bid to reach an arbitrary target on a randomly selected day then it is ridiculous. The proof will come when they release the numbers for today.

In short if from now on we're reaching 100,000 then that's a good thing regardless of whether it was achieved in late April or Early May, if Thursday was a PR stunt then it is embarrassing that we have to use chicanery to appear to have achieved what other countries with a lesser capacity did weeks ago.

[lostinwales]

Why do they push the line over the tests? They have achieved a very great deal in ramping up testing as much as they have. The obvious 'fix' over the actual number of tests takes a lot away from this and was simply unnecessary.

Its truly annoying - and the 'foil hat nutter' in me wonders if it is meant to be so. Keep people talking about the tests rather than the deaths.

Someone also pointed out on Twitter that the day they decided to include care home deaths was the day that hospital deaths in the UK were due to overtake those in Spain - meaning the decision helped to hide this little milestone.

[123456789.]

It turns out we did just under 67,000 yesterday so still fewer than half of what Germany did about a month ago. In terms of why they lie about it. I suspect most people accept that the improvement is fairly good regardless. By lying about it they cause controversy that means the figures the government have actually achieved will be trumpeted everywhere. The accompanying analysis will be that the government is lying which plays into the Them vs Us populist narrative that the government loves rather than the fact that we are still behind where we could and should be on this.

[tigertattie]

Jeez the Americans are at it again.

The trumpet in chief is saying how they are not at all happy with China, that they let the virus spread (on purpose or through negligence) and the Sec of State is saying he has evidence the virus originated in the Wuhan virology lab.

Some pretty inflammatory things being thrown around here. At best this will insult the Chinese into some form of trade/political sabre rattling, at worst stoke the flames of US nuts who will see things as China using bio weapons on US citizens and then demanding a war!

stop the world, I want to get off!

[navyblueshorts]

Presume people listened to Newton say testing counts always due to include kits sent out, but not necessarily actually taken on date of count?

Did media read fine print on test counting? Or did they do as most when confronted by a 'Terms and Conditions' or EULA document? i.e. just agree w/o reading.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public currently states that:

The number of tests includes:

• tests processed through our labs
  
• tests sent to individuals at home or to satellite testing locations
  

Did it always state that? Newton suggests so.

TBH, I don't really give a toss. They've ramped #s up and will continue to do so in order to help w/ lockdown removal etc - good effort. 100k/day was always only a target and I suggest was set as a high bar in order to drive efforts. Normal sort of thing, therefore. Media obsessed about it only, I suggest, as a stick to beat UKG with if/when they failed to hit given, and arbitrary, number.

Having ranted all April about whether UKG would hit target and them not moving fast enough, Nick Triggle (BBC) then starts opining that maybe the headlong rush to ramp up testing capacity wasn't such a good thing, perhaps. Seriously? Make up your chuffing mind.

Some I play with my 2inch man sausage from The Telegraph(?) asked UKG at briefing over weekend if the Nightingales were wasted money/effort? Do these idiots wake up in the morning and take stupid pills? Were they born that way? Acquired a B.A. in Stupidity from University of Stupid People? Did someone drop them on their heads as babies?

Re. politicians maybe massaging absolute truths - is anyone really surprised? It's politics. They all do it.

[navyblueshorts]

Jeez the Americans are at it again.

The trumpet in chief is saying how they are not at all happy with China, that they let the virus spread (on purpose or through negligence) and the Sec of State is saying he has evidence the virus originated in the Wuhan virology lab.

Some pretty inflammatory things being thrown around here. At best this will insult the Chinese into some form of trade/political sabre rattling, at worst stoke the flames of US nuts who will see things as China using bio weapons on US citizens and then demanding a war!

stop the world, I want to get off!

Yeah, we could have it worse here, I guess. Wonder what he does when China calls in its US debt?

[lostinwales]

I am sure one more Trump Tower Shanghai would fix all the problems

[123456789.]

The Guardian are reporting that 97% of the home tests are yet to be actually processed. I am not overly fussed on the 100,000 by the end of April. It doesn't really alter the fact that, firstly, the increase is impressive and, secondly, it would have been achieved weeks/ months ago if the government had been proactive.

Trump is effectively a Dictator trapped inside a democracy. Primarily he, almost certainly, cares about keeping power and the trappings of power. Everything else is secondary. At the moment he is on track to lose the election and will therefore do anything he can to win it regardless of the consequences. If that means stirring up the American nutcases against the world's other superpower then he will do it. For pure entertainment value I very much so hope that Biden will win narrowly. Trump will refuse to concede and we'll get wall to wall coverage of him trying to "do a deal" to stay in.

[WELL-PAST-IT]

I see the New York Times is now echoing a lot of the opinions on here.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/04/opinion/boris-johnson-coronavirus-uk.html

[navyblueshorts]

I see the New York Times is now echoing a lot of the opinions on here.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/04/opinion/boris-johnson-coronavirus-uk.html

Fab. An opinion piece in the NYT echoing some opinion here. She contributes to the Times (of London) and is a visiting writer at the NYT - if she writes that sort of thing for the Times, of course she'll say the same in the NYT.

[Dolphin Ziggler]

I see reports that the virus has mutated and become more contagious.

[jimbopip]

Where are you seeing this, Flipper?

[123456789.]

The Sun say that there’s a new mutation that make a it more contagious, the Mirror says there’s one that makes it less dangerous. Or vice versa. One says it makes a vaccine easier, the other that it makes the vaccine more difficult to find.

[lostinwales]

Lots of mutations.

It always has been very contagious. It is the frequency at which it turns deadly which must be more of a concern.

[MrInvisible]

With UK now having highest death rate in Europe on this its time for the media to get its act together.  As for Labour, Starmer has an opportunity to put some pressure and step things up at PMQs tomorrow.  Given the advance warning and headstart we had over other countries, and missed chances, the death toll is unacceptable.

[lostinwales]

I know the figures are 'open to dispute' (and are not based on difference with stats on expected death rates) but we now have the highest official figures in Europe and are second only to Trumpland overall.

Reality is that we are miles behind Iran and possibly behind China (and one or two other places - who believes Russia's figures? Who is counting properly in, say, Brazil?) but it is still far too many and compared to our neighbours doesn't look good at all. Having said that I don't get why Belgium never seems to get a mention - given that they have the highest number deaths /population of major European nations.

[123456789.]

The govt. have just said that we’re now following the South Korean method of dealing with this. That is an admission that we’ve got this wrong from the start. South Korea has 80% of our population. It is more densely populated. It is far closer to the outbreak. They had their first case before us. If they had time to prepare then so did we. They have had 254 deaths we have had nearly 30,000. In October this year we were rated the second best prepared in the world for an event like this. Is anyone still going to argue that our government’s track record on this is remotely acceptable and if so why? I’m genuinely interested to hear a viable defence.

[123456789.]

I know the figures are 'open to dispute' (and are not based on difference with stats on expected death rates) but we now have the highest official figures in Europe and are second only to Trumpland overall.

Reality is that we are miles behind Iran and possibly behind China (and one or two other places - who believes Russia's figures? Who is counting properly in, say, Brazil?) but it is still far too many and compared to our neighbours  doesn't look good at all. Having said that I don't get why Belgium never seems to get a mention - given that they have the highest number deaths /population of major European nations.

I saw an interview with a Belgian minister who argued they had been incredibly meticulous in their counting and argued it was better to double the number of cases of other countries to compare. I’ve no idea how credible that is though or whether is comparable to the boast that we have done 100,000 tests on any day.

[Dolphin Ziggler]

Where are you seeing this, Flipper?

LA Times, I think it was. Backed up with quotes, university names from there and here who had worked together.

[WELL-PAST-IT]

The govt. have just said that we’re now following the South Korean method of dealing with this. That is an admission that we’ve got this wrong from the start. South Korea has 80% of our population. It is more densely populated. It is far closer to the outbreak. They had their first case before us. If they had time to prepare then so did we. They have had 254 deaths we have had nearly 30,000. In October this year we were rated the second best prepared in the world for an event like this. Is anyone still going to argue that our government’s track record on this is remotely acceptable and if so why? I’m genuinely interested to hear a viable defence.

With the exception of starting it 3 months after the problem has surfaced and not as soon as they were aware of it.

On a separate tack, if the scientist that devised lock down cannot keep to it, what hope do the general public have.

[navyblueshorts]

The govt. have just said that we’re now following the South Korean method of dealing with this. That is an admission that we’ve got this wrong from the start. South Korea has 80% of our population. It is more densely populated. It is far closer to the outbreak. They had their first case before us. If they had time to prepare then so did we. They have had 254 deaths we have had nearly 30,000. In October this year we were rated the second best prepared in the world for an event like this. Is anyone still going to argue that our government’s track record on this is remotely acceptable and if so why? I’m genuinely interested to hear a viable defence.

I'm not sure UKG have said that, have they? Didn't they say we could/should learn from their successes? You're conveniently forgetting the availability of mass testing and tracing there. We did track/trace originally, and quarantining (see people isolated on the Wirral etc). Did you not listen to Newton the other day? They were seeing random hot spots cropping up everywhere, w/ no known travel links to China etc. If we didn't have test/track/trace capacity at that point, you get where we are now. S. Korea had direct experience of SARS and took another potential epi/pandemic seriously.
You could argue we should have taken it seriously, and I wouldn't disagree. Various people have said this was likely for quite some time.

See it was reported France had at least one positive in December. It was here in abundance before we even knew it. Perhaps a reflection of our over-reliance on Chinese manufacturing and all those people making trips to China in the late Autumn and bringing an unwelcome guest back? See also outbreak in northern Italy - where is it all that cheap fashion gets made these days?

If we were genuinely the 2nd best prepared nation in October, it's surely a bit of a stretch to believe there's been a deliberate screw up/rundown of testing/destruction of PPE etc in, what, 4-5 months? Either you think they've been utter scheisse over last few months (I don't, for all there are no doubt areas where they haven't been that good) or this is more complex that the simplistic view that so many want to paint it as.

Certainly, there are questions to answer about what could/should have been done better and what would have made a positive difference in outcomes and I couldn't disagree if you said the buck stops w/ this lot. Their misfortune, but something for the post-pandemic analysis. However, I think Labour etc will be making a big mistake if they try too hard to make political capital out of this.

One definite: Jeremy Hunt needs to STFU. If there's fault in preparation, PPE stocks, testing capacity etc, what was he doing for the ~6 years he was in charge of the Health brief? Bell end.

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