Another Drive4show 'Anything goes' thread

[dynamark]

First topic message reminder :

I suppose it sort of makes sense with the Dyson effort because they just have to switch to blow.
Hope it works.
The self employed will have to adjust in future and get a bit closer to the NI and paye system.It has always been a bit unwritten that you can limit your contributions somewhat as self employed in the building trade and others but a big part of the economy. Again this may close a few gaps

[navyblueshorts]

Does furloughed mean you have to run 220 yards every day? Three weeks ago I thought Richi had mispronounced another word.
The herd thing will surely take place before a vaccine is out for mass use but it will be over a prolonged period.Boris being sick may well make folk think and act a bit more carefully in their daily life.Spoke to a mate today who is off work and the last thing he did was phone around landlords to say they would not be paying the next 3 months rent  and they have hundreds of stores.Economy is going to be battered.

[dynamark]

Mac 3 may become 6 and the landlords have finance on their estates which are often related to pension funds so this may get very messy indeed.

[McLaren]

Navy

This is probably pointless at this stage but whether the term "herd" is used or not the governments original plan was for those over 70 to be isolated and the for the rest of us to continue almost as normal but with some minimal social distancing. That is the herd immunity model.

The over 70 policy is something you must now accept was ludicrous given that some hospitals no longer have the capacity to intubate those over 65. So people are now receiving palliative care who the government were going to feed to the wolves.

[Soul Requiem]

Navy

This is probably pointless at this stage but whether the term "herd" is used or not the governments original plan was for those over 70 to be isolated and the for the rest of us to continue almost as normal but with some minimal social distancing.  That is the herd immunity model.

The over 70 policy is something you must now accept was ludicrous given that some hospitals no longer have the capacity to intubate those over 65. So people are now receiving palliative care who the government were going to feed to the wolves.

You seem to have  made a massive leap from the government statement to this.

[McLaren]

Navy

Not sure if you have seen this but reuters have published a very comprehensive account of the UKG's policy on Covid-19, and tracked how the they reacted to the outbreak from the time it was first reported in china in January.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain-path-speci-idUSKBN21P1VF

It is long but worth a read. It certainly trumps the discussion we have had on here so far.

[Soul Requiem]

I see the EU common purchase scheme for ventilators is going swimmingly, damn shame that the UK isn't benefiting from the 0 they've got to hand out.

[super_realist]

Navy

This is probably pointless at this stage but whether the term "herd" is used or not the governments original plan was for those over 70 to be isolated and the for the rest of us to continue almost as normal but with some minimal social distancing.  That is the herd immunity model.

The over 70 policy is something you must now accept was ludicrous given that some hospitals no longer have the capacity to intubate those over 65. So people are now receiving palliative care who the government were going to feed to the wolves.

Mac, that is ONE interpretation of the herd immunity model. A herd immunity model can take many forms and does not have to follow the model you have put forward.

I get that you don't have a very good job and therefore haven't been involved in any big projects, but when you are faced with a problem and when you are coming up with solutions you consider all options, including the "do nothing" option. This doesn't mean that it is adopted, but everything is discussed. You seem to think it was a policy, it wasn't and it was never enacted. It was something which may have been considered, but it was not a policy, so stop pretending it was.

[beninho]

Let's just watch the Swedes to see the herd immunity in action. They have gone in a different direction to the other scandi neighbours. Not looking great so far. But maybe it's all about the long term.

[super_realist]

Let's just watch the Swedes to see the herd immunity in action. They have gone in a different direction to the other scandi neighbours. Not looking great so far. But maybe it's all about the long term.

Probably helps that Sweden is considerably healthier than countries like the UK and Germany. Can't imagine it's going to be great for them, but wouldn't imagine it would be as bad as if it was replicated in the disgustingly unhealthy UK.

[Soul Requiem]

Lockdown itself can be used for herd immunity, people are aware of that right?

Sweden don't look to be doing too bad in comparison to Norway and Finland when you take into account population and commerce.

[beninho]

Not too bad? 611 deaths increase of 20% yesterday.
Denmark 203, Norway 89, Finland 34.

[Soul Requiem]

Not too bad? 611 deaths increase of 20% yesterday.
Denmark 203, Norway 89, Finland 34.

Do you only ever take things on face value? You need to look into how and why sometimes.

[beninho]

The how and why is that Swedan has a bigger population, but I would still guess they are far ahead on deaths per million.

It wont work, and they will lock down if the increases keep on going.

[super_realist]

Not too bad? 611 deaths increase of 20% yesterday.
Denmark 203, Norway 89, Finland 34.

Why are you including Finland? Finland isn't Scandinavia.

[Soul Requiem]

The how and why is that Swedan has a bigger population, but I would still guess they are far ahead on deaths per million.

It wont work, and they will lock down if the increases keep on going.

What do you mean by it won't work?

There isn't just X and Y, there are phases to these plans which people choose to ignore. Lockdown is not a solution to any problem, it is a preventative measure to reduce but elongate the peak nothing more than that.

[beninho]

Not too bad? 611 deaths increase of 20% yesterday.
Denmark 203, Norway 89, Finland 34.

Why are you including Finland? Finland isn't Scandinavia.

Finland borders Swedan.

[beninho]

The how and why is that Swedan has a bigger population, but I would still guess they are far ahead on deaths per million.

It wont work, and they will lock down if the increases keep on going.

What do you mean by it won't work?

There isn't just X and Y, there are phases to these plans which people choose to ignore. Lockdown is not a solution to any problem, it is a preventative measure to reduce but elongate the peak nothing more than that.

I don't see how they will continue going along the way they are. At some point, if deaths continue at the recent rate, they will lockdown. They may not, and I will be surprised.

[Soul Requiem]

The how and why is that Swedan has a bigger population, but I would still guess they are far ahead on deaths per million.

It wont work, and they will lock down if the increases keep on going.

What do you mean by it won't work?

There isn't just X and Y, there are phases to these plans which people choose to ignore. Lockdown is not a solution to any problem, it is a preventative measure to reduce but elongate the peak nothing more than that.

I don't see how they will continue going along the way they are. At some point, if deaths continue at the recent rate, they will lockdown. They may not, and I will be surprised.

They probably will lockdown at some point as that is the next phase, without immunisation you do need to build up a degree of immunity in a population.

[super_realist]

Not too bad? 611 deaths increase of 20% yesterday.
Denmark 203, Norway 89, Finland 34.

Why are you including Finland? Finland isn't Scandinavia.

Finland borders Swedan.

You said "Scandi neighbours". Finland isn't Scandi. Russia borders Norway, does that make it Scandinavian too?
Plus its SweDEN not SweDAN.

[beninho]

[quote="super_realist"]

Not too bad? 611 deaths increase of 20% yesterday.
Denmark 203, Norway 89, Finland 34.

Why are you including Finland? Finland isn't Scandinavia.

Finland borders Swedan.

You said "Scandi neighbours". Finland isn't Scandi. Russia borders Norway, does that make it Scandinavian too?
Plus its SweDEN not SweDAN.

I'm eternally sorry for my mistake, and my lack of knowledge of Scandinavia and the Nordic countries. Please forgive me sir.

[navyblueshorts]

Navy

This is probably pointless at this stage but whether the term "herd" is used or not the governments original plan was for those over 70 to be isolated and the for the rest of us to continue almost as normal but with some minimal social distancing.  That is the herd immunity model.

The over 70 policy is something you must now accept was ludicrous given that some hospitals no longer have the capacity to intubate those over 65. So people are now receiving palliative care who the government were going to feed to the wolves.

You're putting words in their mouths, based on your biases. You still haven't addressed my points re. the scientific advice and influence on policy.

[navyblueshorts]

Navy

Not sure if you have seen this but reuters have published a very comprehensive account of the UKG's policy on Covid-19, and tracked how the they reacted to the outbreak from the time it was first reported in china in January.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain-path-speci-idUSKBN21P1VF

It is long but worth a read. It certainly trumps the discussion we have had on here so far.

Interesting enough, but not unequivocal. Also, it hardly damns the politicians and I'd think that you, as someone who professes admiration for science, would understand that scientists disagree and there's very little black/white in science.

So, are you suggesting we should blame the scientists? It appears to be they that didn't advise well enough maybe?

For myself, and I'm not a virologist/epidemiologist, I remember talking to my wife in Jan and saying that this is coming over here. It seemed obvious to me, based on acknowledged transmission in China and that their claims of no human-to-human transfer were nonsense. The severity to elderly wasn't something I heard until later though.

TBH, I'm heartily sick of the political finger pointing I read here and elsewhere. A lot of journalists should take a good look at themselves; they're as biased and looking to score purely political points as you are. I'm bored of it. I'm sure there'll be a lot of lessons to learn during the post-pandemic debriefing that's bound to occur.

[navyblueshorts]

Not too bad? 611 deaths increase of 20% yesterday.
Denmark 203, Norway 89, Finland 34.

Why are you including Finland? Finland isn't Scandinavia.

Finland borders Swedan.

You said "Scandi neighbours". Finland isn't Scandi. Russia borders Norway, does that make it Scandinavian too?
Plus its SweDEN not SweDAN.

I'm eternally sorry for my mistake, and my lack of knowledge of Scandinavia and the Nordic countries. Please forgive me sir.

Accuracy is important. I'm sure you understand that? Otherwise all sorts of internet memes etc become accepted as 'fact'.

For example, it's now, apparently, accepted that Israel Folau got in trouble for homophobic remarks, when in actual fact, his comments were wider than that and included atheists and others at the same time. The BBC journalist, Lyse Doucet said the other day, on air, that some nurse deaths during this Covid-19 pandemic were explicitly down to lack of PPE, ergo that's now a 'fact', when it's not necessarily true. I'm sick to death of factual inaccuracy being palmed off as if it's correct.

[super_realist]

I also find it annoying when people are being pulled up for racism by Yasmin Alibhi Brown types when they criticise China for being the source of the problem.

[beninho]

The whole issue is political on both sides. People criticising the government will be politically motivated, but a lot of defending is also political. Look at the papers and the reactions to Boris in hospital, its painting him as a martyr, that's also political  

I'm sure in an ideal world it wont be a political matter  but as soon as government advisors and politicians get involved it becomes one.

Also, the boris support will go through the roof after what hes been through.

Just seen, Whitty has said lessons to learn from Germanys high testing approach, while s health minister says the testing issue was not wrong. Who do we go with?

[super_realist]

Many reports also saying that German's more intensive testing is also not going to make much difference in the long term.

Doubt we can really make any judgements until its all over. The important thing to remember is that no two countries are the same and what works in one country might not work in another.

[navyblueshorts]

The whole issue is political on both sides. People criticising the government will be politically motivated, but a lot of defending is also political. Look at the papers and the reactions to Boris in hospital, its painting him as a martyr, that's also political  

I'm sure in an ideal world it wont be a political matter  but as soon as government advisors and politicians get involved it becomes one.

Also, the boris support will go through the roof after what hes been through.

Just seen, Whitty has said lessons to learn from Germanys high testing approach, while s health minister says the testing issue was not wrong. Who do we go with?

Agree.

Re. Germany, their länder system of government may well have helped them re. testing i.e. all länder took it upon themselves to be sufficient in many things such as this. Also, they're chockablock w/ world leading biotech and diagnostics i.e. Boehringer etc.

[super_realist]

Peston, Kuennesburg and Rigby are becoming incredibly annoying trying to catch out the experts and asking the same old questions everyday.

[Soul Requiem]

The whole issue is political on both sides. People criticising the government will be politically motivated, but a lot of defending is also political. Look at the papers and the reactions to Boris in hospital, its painting him as a martyr, that's also political  

I'm sure in an ideal world it wont be a political matter  but as soon as government advisors and politicians get involved it becomes one.

Also, the boris support will go through the roof after what hes been through.

Just seen, Whitty has said lessons to learn from Germanys high testing approach, while s health minister says the testing issue was not wrong. Who do we go with?

With regards to Boris his support has steadily been on the rise since he took office last year.

The EU are having big problems with this at the moment, as soon as it became clear the situation was escalating there has been a clear divide between north and south resulting in no action being taken. Germany have effectively shut up shop and are first and foremost doing what is best for their citizens which appears to antagonising Spain and Italy who will they should be doing more. The schemes that the UK government were admonished for getting involved with have produced no results whatsoever. I personally think the EU have got a huge problem once this all over and done with.

[McLaren]

Interesting enough, but not unequivocal. Also, it hardly damns the politicians and I'd think that you, as someone who professes admiration for science, would understand that scientists disagree and there's very little black/white in science.

So, are you suggesting we should blame the scientists? It appears to be they that didn't advise well enough maybe?

For myself, and I'm not a virologist/epidemiologist, I remember talking to my wife in Jan and saying that this is coming over here. It seemed obvious to me, based on acknowledged transmission in China and that their claims of no human-to-human transfer were nonsense. The severity to elderly wasn't something I heard until later though.

TBH, I'm heartily sick of the political finger pointing I read here and elsewhere. A lot of journalists should take a good look at themselves; they're as biased and looking to score purely political points as you are. I'm bored of it. I'm sure there'll be a lot of lessons to learn during the post-pandemic debriefing that's bound to occur.

I took a few things away from the article.

Firstly the governments scientific advisers seemed at odds with the general virology and epidemiological community in terms of how seriously the threat of a pandemic was as soon as the first data came out of china in January. It is not clear from the article why they thought the threat to the UK was low (and kept the official threat level low) while the general scientific community thought otherwise, but there does seem to have been hesitancy from the UKG scientific advisory group to accept the seriousness of the situation.  One reason for the hesitancy given in the article is that the UK actually has some of the most advanced and well thought out strategies for dealing with a flu pandemic and this made the UKG's scientific advisers blinkered to using the work they had carried out on that, even though this was a corona virus and not an influenza virus. I personally not sure about that line of reasoning, given the research that would have been done on MERS and SARS1. It is said in the article that pandemic has been classified as the number one security risk to the UK above even terrorism for most of this century.

The second thing I took from the article is how this hesitancy to accept the seriousness of the issue led to delays in adopting a lockdown strategy. (Let's avoid using herd immunity and instead use mitigation and suppression. Mitigation meaning you don't try and change R0 while suppression you try and get R0 below 0)what the article makes clear is that up until days before lockdown was announced the UKG was convinced that mitigation (isolate over 70's and some social distancing) was the strategy to go for. The main reason the article gives for this is that despite even the Governments scientific advisers getting on board with lockdown (suppression) as the scientifically sound policy to go for the government thought the public would not find the lockdown conditions politically palatable. The article claims the UKG had concerns that they would not win popularity from the UK public if they implemented measures a totalitarian regime like china had done.  The UKG's opinion is claimed to have changed when the shocking number of deaths predicted by the imperial college paper were released (which actually contained numbers that other government advisory groups had produced almost a month earlier) along with how well Italians had responded to lockdown and how shocking the numbers were coming out of Italy.]

Official and academic organisations in the UK have apparently been thinking about pandemics and how to protect the UK from the worst of their effects for quite some time but somehow through bureaucracy, poor communication, political wranglings, government incompetency or a combination of them all them, the UKG didn't get to grips with this crisis in as quickly and as timely a manner as they should have done.


Also you ask about whether I am blaming scientists, not really but as I said above I would like to know why the inner circle of UKG scientific advisers was so slow to comprehend how serious this was despite the wider scientific community sounding the alarm.

[McLaren]

PS

I know I have not covered the EU ventilator scheme and testing but I think they fall under how seriously the government were convinced this was a major threat. If you don't think it will ever come to needing them then it makes sense the UKG didn't bother to procure them. In reality it obviously didn't make sense to treat covid so lightly but in the eyes of the UKG ramping up testing and ventilator procurement would not have made sense.

[super_realist]

Mac, you seem to be forgetting that WHO also didn't realise the gravity of the situation in the beginning either.
Virtually every single country has been caught out by this virus, so why focus on our country as if we are the only ones who may have misjudged it or may have made mistakes?

You also miss the point that if you stockpile equipment for a pandemic that doesn't arrive for 25, 50 or 75 years then the equipment will be unlikely to be good enough either through weathering, decomposition, perishing or will simply be too antiquated as medicine will have moved on so much. It could be like using an old diving suit by then because technology will have moved on so far.

[kwinigolfer]

Bernie's always been unelectable, now he's going home. Good thing.

[navyblueshorts]

Peston, Kuennesburg and Rigby are becoming incredibly annoying trying to catch out the experts and asking the same old questions everyday.

Aren't they just?

[super_realist]

Peston is especially obnoxious using words like "surely". Actually Peston you know nothing, stop trying to assert something you have no knowledge of.

It's clear they've spent their entire careers interviewing duplicitous politicians and have no experience of normal people so they simply don't know how to ask actual experts anything because they think they are somehow tried to be deceived.
Let the expert explain rather than think he's is trying to catch the interviewer out.

[McLaren]

Kuennsburg is pretty hot though.

[super_realist]

Kuennsburg is pretty hot though.

She's incredibly dowdy and frumpy Mac. Of all the people on TV you could say we're hot you pick her.

[beninho]

Looks like the footballers aren't all that bad. Just announced the players together scheme looks like a lot are involved in supporting the nhs charities. Well done Henderson and them all.

[beninho]

I read that flights coming into heathrow from America are just allowing people straight through, without any tests or checks. That seems bizarre.

The Sun is s rag, pure and simple and sun readers are generally awful, but its overblown support for the nhs is the worst, on a few years back it ran an editorial comment piece on sacking the doctors and getting rid of the ones who looked to strike fir better salary and conditions.

Finally, how long do people expect lockdown to last? The 3 weeks was always ridiculous, this is going to go on for months and months isn't it?

[super_realist]

What's the point in testing well people Beninho? Once they get here they are supposed to be in lockdown anyway. We don't have enough tests to be testing well people, only those with symptoms and frontline workers, even then we don't have enough because of the scarcity of reliable tests.

As for "lockdown" (wretched American term) I would imagine at least 8 weeks, but we might see a bit of relaxation before. Wuhan opened up after 11.

[beninho]

8 more weeks, or 8 in total?

I don't know how they will start letting things get back to normal without a vaccine or the test to see if you've had it. That could be months and months.

[Soul Requiem]

8 more weeks, or 8 in total?

I don't know how they will start letting things get back to normal without a vaccine or the test to see if you've had it. That could be months and months.

People might start to realise then why a decision to lockdown was seen as a last resort and delayed as long as possible, without a vaccine or antibody test in the immediate pipeline it will be seen for what it is.

[super_realist]

8 more weeks, or 8 in total?

I don't know how they will start letting things get back to normal without a vaccine or the test to see if you've had it. That could be months and months.

Just a guess but I think 8 weeks in total before there's any significant change, they are going to want to get new infections and deaths down to well under 100 a day I would think. There comes a point when it's more important to get the economy back on track than save the lives of a few dozen people a day who would have been scheduled to die at some point in the near future anyway. Harsh, but true, and with 16,000 dying a day under normal circumstances, they'll have to make a call on it. Worth bearing in mind that the number of people who have died in the UK over the entire outbreak is not even half the amount of people who die under normal circumstances in one single day.

I think a vaccine is pretty unlikely in the short term, far more likely is an antibody test.

[beninho]

8 more weeks, or 8 in total?

I don't know how they will start letting things get back to normal without a vaccine or the test to see if you've had it. That could be months and months.

Just a guess but I think 8 weeks in total before there's any significant change, they are going to want to get new infections and deaths down to well under 100 a day I would think. There comes a point when it's more important to get the economy back on track than save the lives of a few dozen people a day who would have been scheduled to die at some point in the near future anyway. Harsh, but true, and with 16,000 dying a day under normal circumstances, they'll have to make a call on it. Worth bearing in mind that the number of people who have died in the UK over the entire outbreak is not even half the amount of people who die under normal circumstances in one single day.

I think a vaccine is pretty unlikely in the short term, far more likely is an antibody test.

The query on this, is that it's hard to say how many people were on deaths door and on the way out before catching the virus. We just don't have the numbers available. I guess if the government make a call that people will die who weren't imminently going to die, and live with that in the name of the economy. They will have to own it. It's a big call though.

[beninho]

8 more weeks, or 8 in total?

I don't know how they will start letting things get back to normal without a vaccine or the test to see if you've had it. That could be months and months.

People might start to realise then why a decision to lockdown was seen as a last resort and delayed as long as possible, without a vaccine or antibody test in the immediate pipeline it will be seen for what it is.

I think we know, our views differ on this.

[Soul Requiem]

8 more weeks, or 8 in total?

I don't know how they will start letting things get back to normal without a vaccine or the test to see if you've had it. That could be months and months.

People might start to realise then why a decision to lockdown was seen as a last resort and delayed as long as possible, without a vaccine or antibody test in the immediate pipeline it will be seen for what it is.

I think we know, our views differ on this.

I'm still trying to understand your views and what you're basing them on but oh well.

[Pal Joey]

Think we need to keep an eye on what happens in Wuhan / Hubei in the coming weeks and see if there is any 2nd wave of infections... if they report such numbers. Prefer to sit tight and maintain the current status quo before rushing out again - waving flags, hugging and cheering each other.

[beninho]

8 more weeks, or 8 in total?

I don't know how they will start letting things get back to normal without a vaccine or the test to see if you've had it. That could be months and months.

People might start to realise then why a decision to lockdown was seen as a last resort and delayed as long as possible, without a vaccine or antibody test in the immediate pipeline it will be seen for what it is.

I think we know, our views differ on this.

I'm still trying to understand your views and what you're basing them on but oh well.

I'll never understand how you vote for the conservative party. But we dont need to debate differences of opinion on everything.

[Soul Requiem]

8 more weeks, or 8 in total?

I don't know how they will start letting things get back to normal without a vaccine or the test to see if you've had it. That could be months and months.

People might start to realise then why a decision to lockdown was seen as a last resort and delayed as long as possible, without a vaccine or antibody test in the immediate pipeline it will be seen for what it is.

I think we know, our views differ on this.

I'm still trying to understand your views and what you're basing them on but oh well.

I'll never understand how you vote for the conservative party. But we dont need to debate differences of opinion on everything.

I can explain why I vote for the conservative party that's the big difference, all you've done is say you disagree with everything and been unable to provide any reasoning behind, you don't even seem to understand why a lockdown is implemented in the first place.

[super_realist]

8 more weeks, or 8 in total?

I don't know how they will start letting things get back to normal without a vaccine or the test to see if you've had it. That could be months and months.

Just a guess but I think 8 weeks in total before there's any significant change, they are going to want to get new infections and deaths down to well under 100 a day I would think. There comes a point when it's more important to get the economy back on track than save the lives of a few dozen people a day who would have been scheduled to die at some point in the near future anyway. Harsh, but true, and with 16,000 dying a day under normal circumstances, they'll have to make a call on it. Worth bearing in mind that the number of people who have died in the UK over the entire outbreak is not even half the amount of people who die under normal circumstances in one single day.

I think a vaccine is pretty unlikely in the short term, far more likely is an antibody test.

The query on this, is that it's hard to say how many people were on deaths door and on the way out before catching the virus. We just don't have the numbers available. I guess if the government make a call that people will die who weren't imminently going to die, and live with that in the name of the economy. They will have to own it.  It's a big call though.

Doctors and Scientists are aligned in saying that the vast majority of people who have died were likely to die at some point in the near future. I've lost count of the amount of them saying this.

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