Another Drive4show 'Anything goes' thread

[dynamark]

First topic message reminder :

I suppose it sort of makes sense with the Dyson effort because they just have to switch to blow.
Hope it works.
The self employed will have to adjust in future and get a bit closer to the NI and paye system.It has always been a bit unwritten that you can limit your contributions somewhat as self employed in the building trade and others but a big part of the economy. Again this may close a few gaps

[Davie]

It's about time she and her cohorts learned to count up to their 100,000 (tests) a day as the UK death rate is on track to be worse than any other country.

I keep hearing that said but the figures don't really add up. Italy is still almost double UK deaths and our curve is hopefully starting to flatten now

[kwinigolfer]

Let's hope that's right Davie - I don't understand why there are reports that deaths in some nursing homes have not yet been attributed (if appropriate) to COVID-19.
Per capita it could be a close run thing.
"Only" 500 deaths a day for three weeks will go over the 20,000 mark - that would probably be a realistic expectation . . . . . . or optimistic.

[I'm never wrong]

I don't understand why there are reports that deaths in some nursing homes have not yet been attributed (if appropriate) to COVID-19.

Because they are not tested?

[McLaren]

Kwini

It is madness, for some reason (demographic, health of population, UKG response..) the UK is getting hammered by this. Some of the worst deaths per capita in Europe, the world even)


Davie here is table that shows how badly the UK is doing when you rank the European countries based on death rate per million.



https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


As kwini points out it must look like madness from the outside because it feels like madness that the UK press have not realised what is happening in the UK and how much the government needs to be questioned and held to account.

[kwinigolfer]

I don't understand why there are reports that deaths in some nursing homes have not yet been attributed (if appropriate) to COVID-19.

Because they are not tested?  

Which begs the question:
WHY NOT??!!

Boris can be bombastic and just go with his big picture du jour, but surely there are some adults in the room?

No?

Not in the US either.

[Davie]

Kwini

It is madness, for some reason (demographic, health of population, UKG response..) the UK is getting hammered by this. Some of the worst deaths per capita in Europe, the world even)


Davie here is table that shows how badly the UK is doing when you rank the European countries based on death rate per million.

That's where I got my numbers from too - seems we are seeing different things though. Nowhere near (yet) the worst in Europe or the world either in total deaths or per capita

[super_realist]

What are you on about Mac? The intolerable Kuennsburg, Peston and Rigby are relentless in their line of boring questioning trying to pin this on the government response. Don't you watch the news?

[super_realist]

I don't understand why there are reports that deaths in some nursing homes have not yet been attributed (if appropriate) to COVID-19.

Because they are not tested?  

Italy haven't been counting theirs either.

[beninho]

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8214867/amp/Chris-Whitty-reveals-92-care-homes-declared-coronavirus-outbreak-past-24-hours-alone.html

Even the daily mail are flagging up that the government figures are wrong, as it seems care home deaths are not taken into account unlike in other countries. I don't think we can remotely trust the figures.

I think it's strange, that the media seemed to make more of the issues when Italy was struggling than they do now. The whole hero boris thing was pretty distasteful, making him out to be a Martyr as hundreds were dying.

[Soul Requiem]

In what countries are care home deaths included then Ben?

[super_realist]

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8214867/amp/Chris-Whitty-reveals-92-care-homes-declared-coronavirus-outbreak-past-24-hours-alone.html

Even the daily mail are flagging up that the government figures are wrong, as it seems care home deaths are not taken into account unlike in other countries. I don't think we can remotely trust the figures.

I think it's strange, that the media seemed to make more of the issues when Italy was struggling than they do now. The whole hero boris thing was pretty distasteful, making him out to be a Martyr as hundreds were dying.

Have to government ever declared that they are counting anything other than those who have died in hospital? As far as I can recall they've been pretty clear that their figures come from just that and they've always said that the true numbers are likely to be higher. Not sure why you are still after all this time trying to score points.
Italy aren't counting their care homes either.

[beninho]

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-around-half-of-covid-19-deaths-are-in-care-homes-11972850

This shows some countries and reported care home deaths. So far the uk has stated 20. But new figures are out this week.

France is also using deaths in the community, I dont think we are.

[beninho]

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8214867/amp/Chris-Whitty-reveals-92-care-homes-declared-coronavirus-outbreak-past-24-hours-alone.html

Even the daily mail are flagging up that the government figures are wrong, as it seems care home deaths are not taken into account unlike in other countries. I don't think we can remotely trust the figures.

I think it's strange, that the media seemed to make more of the issues when Italy was struggling than they do now. The whole hero boris thing was pretty distasteful, making him out to be a Martyr as hundreds were dying.

Have to government ever declared that they are  counting anything other than those who have died in hospital? As far as I can recall they've been pretty clear that their figures come from just that and they've always said that the true numbers are likely to be higher. Not sure why you are still after all this time trying to score points.
Italy aren't counting their care homes either.

Scoring points? Not sure what you mean.

Figures are based on hospital deaths, but, people are accepting these as the full figures. Obviously the numbers are higher with deaths in the community and care homes.

I respect your views and trust in the government, I'm just not in full agreement that they've been as good as some people claim.

[beninho]

I will say, our government is dealing better then made Donald. That guys unhinged.

[Soul Requiem]

I dont know of anybody accepting it as the full figure as it's been stated enough times not to be the case.

[beninho]

I dont know of anybody accepting it as the full figure as it's been stated enough times not to be the case.

I've seen people making comments on social media. Mainly cheerleaders for the government who don't want to accept anything else.

[beninho]

Anyway, I'm back in the office this week, so have my gloves and mask and ready to tackle the world. Still mopping up the government's plans that every rough sleeper should be housed somewhere. All well and good, but if you have Heathrow on your doorstep, not an easy objective!

Stay safe everyone.

And on another note, and its probably not said enough, this whole thing is really shot sh€t isnt it? My dad battled through it over the last 2 weeks, luckily didn't get to his chest though.

[Soul Requiem]

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-around-half-of-covid-19-deaths-are-in-care-homes-11972850

This shows some countries and reported care home deaths.  So far the uk has stated 20. But new figures are out this week.

France is also using deaths in the community, I dont think we are.

Reported by the media?

[beninho]

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-around-half-of-covid-19-deaths-are-in-care-homes-11972850

This shows some countries and reported care home deaths.  So far the uk has stated 20. But new figures are out this week.

France is also using deaths in the community, I dont think we are.

Reported by the media?

In Spain. But it says official data/figures/survey for Ireland, Belgium, France and Italy. Though our official figures are due this week, let's see what they say.

[Soul Requiem]

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-around-half-of-covid-19-deaths-are-in-care-homes-11972850

This shows some countries and reported care home deaths.  So far the uk has stated 20. But new figures are out this week.

France is also using deaths in the community, I dont think we are.

Reported by the media?

In Spain. But it says official data/figures/survey for Ireland, Belgium, France and Italy. Though our official figures are due this week, let's see what they say.

Italy and Spain aren't conducting tests in care homes.

[super_realist]

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8214867/amp/Chris-Whitty-reveals-92-care-homes-declared-coronavirus-outbreak-past-24-hours-alone.html

Even the daily mail are flagging up that the government figures are wrong, as it seems care home deaths are not taken into account unlike in other countries. I don't think we can remotely trust the figures.

I think it's strange, that the media seemed to make more of the issues when Italy was struggling than they do now. The whole hero boris thing was pretty distasteful, making him out to be a Martyr as hundreds were dying.

Have to government ever declared that they are  counting anything other than those who have died in hospital? As far as I can recall they've been pretty clear that their figures come from just that and they've always said that the true numbers are likely to be higher. Not sure why you are still after all this time trying to score points.
Italy aren't counting their care homes either.

Scoring points?  Not sure what you mean.

Figures are based on hospital deaths, but, people are accepting these as the full figures. Obviously the numbers are higher with deaths in the community and care homes.

I respect your views and trust in the government, I'm just not in full agreement that they've been as good as some people claim.

Who is accepting it as full figures? Name one. I don't think anyone even in a country as stupid as Britain is naive enough to think that these are the full figures. We are constantly told that these figures don't include those dying in the community/ care homes.
I'm not defending the government, I'm just not bashing it without good reason like you are.

[dynamark]

Sure the total will be more but the key thing is that we have a number of covid deaths taken on a fixed consistent basis to make the comparisons and aid the judgement .
Numbers infected will always move as numbers of tests varies so again we need to make judgement on a consistent sample.The scientists have to start earning their money now.
This will not be going away any time soon its about how we manage and mitigate

[navyblueshorts]

Donald from Washington is innumerate and an incorrigible liar.
What's Priti's excuse?

It's about time she and her cohorts learned to count up to their 100,000 (tests) a day as the UK death rate is on track to be worse than any other country.
From 3,000 miles away there's no sense that anyone's running the SS GB & NI - it seemed inconceivable to me that whoever-it-was a month ago suggested that anything fewer than 20,000 UK deaths should be considered a success. They're on track to go steaming by that number so who should be considered a failure?

Sorry, kwini, going to have to call you on this. Hancock clearly said 100k test/day was target/goal. He set a high bar? There's a problem w/ that? Personally, I hope they make it at which point I'll wait to hear all the apologies from those banging on about it ad nauseam. If they fail, but get close? I don't actually think it matters (as long as it's close), the reason being it was a target and targets have to set to give people something to aim for.

It was either Whitty or Vallance who said 20,000 deaths would be a good result. He was correct. Not sure what the issue is w/ that.

As to head of Wellcome Trust commenting the UK could be worst case in Europe, he said could, not would. UK is also not, as of today, 'on track' to be worse than any other country. He also referred to hindsight. Others should look that word up perhaps.

[navyblueshorts]

Kwini

It is madness, for some reason (demographic, health of population, UKG response..) the UK is getting hammered by this. Some of the worst deaths per capita in Europe, the world even)


Davie here is table that shows how badly the UK is doing when you rank the European countries based on death rate per million.



https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


As kwini points out it must look like madness from the outside because it feels like madness that the UK press have not realised what is happening in the UK and how much the government needs to be questioned and held to account.

Yeah, that's essentially pulled from Johns Hopkins data (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality), but ask your self this: why is it that the UK and all those other 'first world' Nations, w/ generally excellent, well established health care systems appear to be at the top of the table for mortality, however they're measured? Simply pillorying UKG is simplistic and undoubtedly wide of the mark as to actual reasons. Then again, so many love simplistic, don't they?

[navyblueshorts]

I don't understand why there are reports that deaths in some nursing homes have not yet been attributed (if appropriate) to COVID-19.

Because they are not tested?  

Which begs the question:
WHY NOT??!!

Boris can be bombastic and just go with his big picture du jour, but surely there are some adults in the room?

No?

Not in the US either.

Umm, they don't need to be? They present w/ a new respiratory illness in a period where seasonal flu and colds are almost absent. ergo diagnosis is Covid. Why are people not listening to what is being said at daily briefings re. reporting of community deaths? It's public knowledge and also slower to be recorded in the stats.

[navyblueshorts]

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8214867/amp/Chris-Whitty-reveals-92-care-homes-declared-coronavirus-outbreak-past-24-hours-alone.html

Even the daily mail are flagging up that the government figures are wrong, as it seems care home deaths are not taken into account unlike in other countries. I don't think we can remotely trust the figures.

I think it's strange, that the media seemed to make more of the issues when Italy was struggling than they do now. The whole hero boris thing was pretty distasteful, making him out to be a Martyr as hundreds were dying.

Have to government ever declared that they are  counting anything other than those who have died in hospital? As far as I can recall they've been pretty clear that their figures come from just that and they've always said that the true numbers are likely to be higher. Not sure why you are still after all this time trying to score points.
Italy aren't counting their care homes either.

Scoring points?  Not sure what you mean.

Figures are based on hospital deaths, but, people are accepting these as the full figures. Obviously the numbers are higher with deaths in the community and care homes.

I respect your views and trust in the government, I'm just not in full agreement that they've been as good as some people claim.

No they aren't; at least not those w/ a brain and who've been listening to the briefings etc.

[navyblueshorts]

I dont know of anybody accepting it as the full figure as it's been stated enough times not to be the case.

I've  seen people making comments on social media. Mainly cheerleaders for the government who don't want to accept anything else.

Read that back for a second...

[Davie]

The ONS has come out with more stats this morning - up to about 10 days ago? But the numbers are almost meaningless apart from showing that a lot of people are dying. We don't know how other countries are reporting; we don't know how many people are really infected in the UK - or elsewhere for that matter. Trying to compare numbers is a fairly futile exercise. The only worthwhile activity is watching trends - be it number of deaths in hospital, or the later (delayed) figures from the ONS. As long as we watch trends from the same source, be they complete or not, it's probably the only worthwhile measure. And the curve does seem to be flattening

[kwinigolfer]

In what countries are care home deaths included then Ben?

USA, USA, USA, MAGA

[navyblueshorts]

The ONS has come out with more stats this morning - up to about 10 days ago? But the numbers are almost meaningless apart from showing that a lot of people are dying. We don't know how other countries are reporting; we don't know how many people are really infected in the UK - or elsewhere for that matter. Trying to compare numbers is a fairly futile exercise. The only worthwhile activity is watching trends - be it number of deaths in hospital, or the later (delayed) figures from the ONS. As long as we watch trends from the same source, be they complete or not, it's probably the only worthwhile measure. And the curve does seem to be flattening

[navyblueshorts]

In what countries are care home deaths included then Ben?

USA, USA, USA, MAGA

[kwinigolfer]

I don't understand why there are reports that deaths in some nursing homes have not yet been attributed (if appropriate) to COVID-19.

Because they are not tested?  

Which begs the question:
WHY NOT??!!

Boris can be bombastic and just go with his big picture du jour, but surely there are some adults in the room?

No?

Not in the US either.

Umm, they don't need to be? They present w/ a new respiratory illness in a period where seasonal flu and colds are almost absent. ergo diagnosis is Covid. Why are people not listening to what is being said at daily briefings re. reporting of community deaths? It's public knowledge and also slower to be recorded in the stats.

navy,
The biggest reason they're significant here, at least, is that they tend to be instructive as to where clusters of contamination are present, not necessarily in the "inmates" but in the employees and their families and community.
May be quite different there, but ignoring them means any comparison of casualties will tend to be apples and oranges. And, quite possibly, those in care are being ignored, if not by their carers but by the wider community, all the way up to Whitehall.

[navyblueshorts]

I don't understand why there are reports that deaths in some nursing homes have not yet been attributed (if appropriate) to COVID-19.

Because they are not tested?  

Which begs the question:
WHY NOT??!!

Boris can be bombastic and just go with his big picture du jour, but surely there are some adults in the room?

No?

Not in the US either.

Umm, they don't need to be? They present w/ a new respiratory illness in a period where seasonal flu and colds are almost absent. ergo diagnosis is Covid. Why are people not listening to what is being said at daily briefings re. reporting of community deaths? It's public knowledge and also slower to be recorded in the stats.

navy,
The biggest reason they're significant here, at least, is that they tend to be instructive as to where clusters of contamination are present, not necessarily in the "inmates" but in the employees and their families and community.
May be quite different there, but ignoring them means any comparison of casualties will tend to be apples and oranges. And, quite possibly, those in care are being ignored, if not by their carers but by the wider community, all the way up to Whitehall.

Yep; fair points. I doubt they're being ignored, though, but it's easy to assume politicians would do so.

[super_realist]

It's not that they're being ignored, it's that hospital deaths are the most easy to get reliable information on.
It's also very easy with care home residents to confuse dying with Coronavirus and dying of coronavirus

[beninho]

Some interesting stats from the office of national statistics on twitter. For a period at start of month nearly 50% of all deaths involved covid within london. That's huge.

Also reporting 216 care home deaths, 136 in private homes

Also found this which is really interesting
https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1249366217204338688?s=19

Really interesting that shows vast majority were not on deaths door as some previous claims.

[super_realist]

What I'm finding interesting is people asking the government to supply PPE to care homes. It's not their responsibility, they are private organisations with residents paying fortunes to stay there. It is the owners of these homes who should be supplying this.

Has anyone claimed that people dying were mostly on deaths door? I've only really heard people saying that the majority of the dead had underlying health issues, which is still true.
In any event the number of people who have died from Coronavirus in this country remains very small in comparison to the number of people who have died from other causes.

[beninho]

What I'm finding interesting is people asking the government to supply PPE to care homes. It's not their responsibility, they are private organisations with residents paying fortunes to stay there. It is the owners of these homes who should be supplying this.

Has anyone claimed that people dying were mostly on deaths door? I've only really heard people saying that the majority of the dead had underlying health issues, which is still true.
In any event the number of people who have died from Coronavirus in this country remains very small in comparison to the number of people who have died from other causes.

Apart from London, when its 50/50 almost.

Regarding deaths door, as mentioned the thread people have been raising it.

[beninho]

https://twitter.com/d_spiegel/status/1249986522692096003?s=19

Also interesting.

I've got to get out of this statistics rabbit hole and back to work. But its fascinating, in a weird grim sort of way.

[super_realist]

What I'm finding interesting is people asking the government to supply PPE to care homes. It's not their responsibility, they are private organisations with residents paying fortunes to stay there. It is the owners of these homes who should be supplying this.

Has anyone claimed that people dying were mostly on deaths door? I've only really heard people saying that the majority of the dead had underlying health issues, which is still true.
In any event the number of people who have died from Coronavirus in this country remains very small in comparison to the number of people who have died from other causes.

Apart from London, when its 50/50 almost.

Regarding deaths door, as mentioned the thread people have been raising it.

According to Age UK all care homes are privately owned. I'm not sure I believe that but think it's more than 50% in London.

[Soul Requiem]

I agree with the grim fascination, been trying to understand the numbers all weekend.

Lombardy has seen a 144% rise in deaths this year March 1-21 compared to last year. 3520 in 2019 and 8587 this year, an increase of 5067 of which 3072 are attributed to Covid-19. I'll agree that the government are being fairly economical with their numbers but I think that's true of most countries and I think we can assume that the UK and Italy alongside the other major European powers are massaging their numbers less than elsewhere in the world.

https://towardsdatascience.com/covid-19-excess-mortality-figures-in-italy-d9640f411691

[McLaren]

Yeah, that's essentially pulled from Johns Hopkins data (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality), but ask your self this: why is it that the UK and all those other 'first world' Nations, w/ generally excellent, well established health care systems appear to be at the top of the table for mortality, however they're measured? Simply pillorying UKG is simplistic and undoubtedly wide of the mark as to actual reasons. Then again, so many love simplistic, don't they?

In this case I do like the simple. Deaths per capita only relies on the death being recorded as covid as opposed to any calculation where you have to work out how testing rates also effect the numbers.

I assume you are suggesting that other countries have not been as honest about what is recorded as a covid death while the UK has been very transparent, and therefore that is why it is high on the deaths/million table. Could be, but look how the UK compares to countries that you probably trust.


UK 167 deaths per Million
Ireland 74
USA  71 (and that is with the idiocy of Trump inflicted on the situation)
Portugal 56
Denmark 49
Austria 43
Germany 38
Norway 25
Canada 21
(World average 15.5)
Finland 11
Poland 7
S. Korea 4
Australia 2
New Zealand 2


England 183
Wales 122
Scotland 106
NI 63


It would appear that it doesn't have to be as dire as the UK has made it. There are factors like having many hubs of international travel like the UK does, or general health of the population but even considering those factors are you not curious as to why the UK is getting hit so hard?


Also the UK breakdown is interesting given the different degrees to which healthcare is devolved.




For Super, look at previous posts between myself and Navy. We have already covered those countries.

[super_realist]

How rather convenient (and dishonest) that you left out France, Spain, Belgium, Switzerland and Italy Mac.They are either far worse or very close figures.

[Davie]

I assume you are suggesting that other countries have not been as honest about what is recorded as a covid death while the UK has been very transparent, and therefore that is why it is high on the deaths/million table. Could be, but look how the UK compares to countries that you probably trust.

Funny how you leave Italy, Spain, Belgium, France, Netherlands etc. out of your list. All likely to be as well (or badly) reported as UK - and all higher than UK

[McLaren]

FFS guys, and especially Davie. Look at the previous post between myself NAvy and davie.

BUt if you are too dim to comprehend that I can add them. Would that make you happy?

[beninho]

I wouldn't trust any countries figures. It's all about the deaths, as was mentioned by Soul.

I did see that isn't it a coincidence that Japan had an influx after the Olympics was cancelled.

[Soul Requiem]

FFS guys, and especially Davie. Look at the previous post between myself NAvy and davie.

BUt if you are too dim to comprehend that I can add them. Would that make you happy?

I don't understand why you'd leave them out in the first place.

[super_realist]

FFS guys, and especially Davie. Look at the previous post between myself NAvy and davie.

BUt if you are too dim to comprehend that I can add them. Would that make you happy?

Your assertion was that the UK is doing terribly and has somehow made a catastrophic error in its handling of the situation, and that may well be true, but if you ignore the countries that are clearly far worse or broadly the same as the UK then it only looks like you are omitting data to prove your point, which by definition is being dishonest.

Could the UK have done better?  Probably, is it fair and rational to compare countries which are massively different? Probably not. Should we use the data to show where we are on a curve, absolutely.  Does omitting evidence from an argument to skew the argument in your favour make you appear dishonest? Definitely.
You can do better than this, you're supposed to have an MSc for goodness sake, you'd never present data like this in any other aspect of your life, why do it now.

[McLaren]

Sadly very wrong there Soul

My original post made that assertion, the one above was in response to navy asking for data from countries he could trust. The data for spain, Netherlands, Italy France and belgium is in the original post if you need it.

[Soul Requiem]

I wouldn't trust any countries figures. It's all about the deaths, as was mentioned by Soul.

I did see that isn't it a coincidence that Japan had an influx after the Olympics was cancelled.

I've been trying to find similar figures for Germany, death rate last year was 11.6 which incidentally is very high within Europe but can't find the numbers for this year. There will be a fair amount of collateral damage outside of the direct Covid-19 deaths but an increase of upwards of 60% when you take them out seems high.

[McLaren]

Does it fill anyone with a sense of pride that we are not as bad off as the French or Italians but still have a death rate nearly 3 times our closest neighbor both geographically and culturally, Ireland?

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