Another Drive4show 'Anything goes' thread

[super_realist]

First topic message reminder :

Just wondering what ailment you have which does not have a proven cure from modern medicine but for which Chinese "medicine" does.
Mac is the secretive one, not me.

[McLaren]

Navy


But everything anyone writes or posts on here is something they chose to do because they thought it was relevant or interesting to some degree. Why does posting ons stats get singled out for being conformation bias?

If we are going to argue about UK death figures, and we are, then the ONS stats are surely the best place to start?

[super_realist]

I take back my comment that Kyle Walker is the most stupid footballer. Sol Campbell is saying that Covid-19 is deliberately targeting "certain groups" What a plank, makes Eamonn Holmes' recent comment look fairly reasonable.

[McLaren]

Sol Campbell is not the full shilling.

[dynamark]

Navy I tried to read that and did not understand a single word.Be interested to know who funds it.
Anyway it appears Boris got SRs e mail and the times headline today is ,NEXT WAR ON FAT.
Lets hope he gets mine about smokers and we are sorted.

[super_realist]

Sol Campbell is not the full shilling.

And he wonders why no one gives him a job, maybe because you're a lunatic Sol.

[dynamark]

Yes he was the one wittering about not getting a job in management.
When he finally did it didnt go well

[superflyweight]

Yes he was the one wittering about not getting a job in management.
When he finally did it didnt go well

In relative terms, it actually went pretty well for him at Macclesfield. His eccentricities aside, his comments about former black players being given the same opportunities in management are fair comment.

[McLaren]

Super fly

Clealry he has a point about there being a lack of black managers but he is a bizarre individual. A total fruit loop.

[dynamark]

Not a lot of female football managers in mens footy and vice versa.
Its like everything a merit based system if you are good enough and have respect you can get there.
Hockey cricket basketball all have their basic physical/social/ethnic origins.100m sprinters ,marathon runners.It s just how it is and no point trying to equal things.

[super_realist]

Unless someone is genuinely being discriminated against. I don't think Sol was, he's just an idiot.

[superflyweight]

I don't think Campbell has helped himself - strange character and would represent a risk for any club. Macclesfield were in dire straits and they took a gamble.

There is clearly an issue of reprsentation in football management though. There's less than 10 BAME managers amongst the 90 odd league clubs.

There's plenty of male football managers in women's football.

[super_realist]

Does anyone know how many BAME players are going through the process of FA coaching credentials, this is what matters if this isn't close to the jobs being offered afterwards.

[superflyweight]

Does anyone know how many BAME players are going through the process of FA coaching credentials, this is what matters if this isn't close to the jobs being offered afterwards.

No idea of those numbers.

Albeit that they don't tell the full story (i.e. they don't tell us how many pursue coaching badges) the stats in the following passage taken from an article in the Independent in 2018 do indicate that there is a barrier (in whatever form it might take):

Since 1990, one in four – just under 25 per cent – of retired England international footballers have been black or from an ethnic minority background (BAME). But of those ex-players who have subsequently gone into a management job, that drops to just one in seven. We’re defining a management job as a club in one of the top five divisions in England, or a big-five league or international side in Europe.

As a white ex-England player, you are twice as likely to end up in a managerial job as your black counterpart. Since 1990, just five black ex-England players have gone into management, under the definition listed above. You’d probably struggle to name all of them, given that only one of them is still in a job and only one of them made it as far as the Premier League (where he lasted six months).

[navyblueshorts]

Who was it posted recently about Vitamin D and Covid? Who cares. Anyway:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.08.20058578v3

Pre-print, not peer reviewed as yet, but interesting.

Wonder if anyone's looked at Vit D vs. sub-sections of populations...

I get Vitamn D tests through work and was fairly low last time I got tested. I think I read somewhere that everyone North of Bristol (or somewhere on a similar latitude) is likely to be Vitamn D deficient, which isn't really surprising. This will be even more true now considering how little time people are outdoors.
Surprised there hasn't been a rush  on supplements, like there has been on toilet roll, tinfoil etc.

There has been a rush on supplements, esp. vit D itself. 20° north seems to be delineating latitude.

20 degrees? Are you sure? That means anyone North of Sudan needs supplements? Can't be right. Don't you mean 50?

Didn't check TBH. Took it from here:

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04344041

[super_realist]

Ah,  not having a go but it doesn't say that those outside 20N and 20S are getting insufficient vitamin D though, it's just where the sample is taken from and where C19 has been more prevalent, which isn't surprising as most population density is outwith the hot arid areas of intra tropic zones.

[navyblueshorts]

Navy


But everything anyone writes or posts on here is something they chose to do because they thought it was relevant or interesting to some degree. Why does posting ons stats get singled out for being conformation bias?

If we are going to argue about UK death figures, and we are, then the ONS stats are surely the best place to start?

Just forget it, Mac. My conjecture is that your posts on this (and many other things) are biased by your views and your dislike of Tories, which is fine, but from you it's made worse by your championing of the so-called 'scientific method'. Sure, a lot of things are opinion and everyone makes mistakes, but I'm sick to death of the entrenched views we see so much of now. Not as bad as Trump-land, but getting there. Nothing personal - it's everywhere.

[navyblueshorts]

I take back my comment that Kyle Walker is the most stupid footballer. Sol Campbell is saying that Covid-19 is deliberately targeting "certain groups" What a plank, makes Eamonn Holmes' recent comment look fairly reasonable.

Footballers: in general, what do we expect?

[navyblueshorts]

Ah,  not having a go but it doesn't say that those outside 20N and 20S are getting insufficient vitamin D though, it's just where the sample is taken from and where C19 has been more prevalent, which isn't surprising as most population density is outwith the hot arid areas of intra tropic zones.

I must be missing something:

Hypovitaminosis D is common in Winter (October to March) at Northern latitudes above 20 degrees North, and from April to September at Southern latitudes beyond 20 degrees below the equator.

I wasn't talking about Covid w/ the low [D3] in general. Are we conflating the D3/Covid manuscript w/ the D3 trial link text I also linked?

[super_realist]

Ah,  not having a go but it doesn't say that those outside 20N and 20S are getting insufficient vitamin D though, it's just where the sample is taken from and where C19 has been more prevalent, which isn't surprising as most population density is outwith the hot arid areas of intra tropic zones.

I must be missing something:

Hypovitaminosis D is common in Winter (October to March) at Northern latitudes above 20 degrees North, and from April to September at Southern latitudes beyond 20 degrees below the equator.

I wasn't talking about Covid w/ the low [D3] in general. Are we conflating the D3/Covid manuscript w/ the D3 trial link text I also linked?

We were talking about the latitude at which people become Vitamin D deficient through lack of solar radiation intensity. I think we got a bit confused on what we were talking. Clearly sufficient vit d can be produced at much more northerly or southerly latitudes than 20 degrees otherwise there would be considerably more cases of osteoporosis or rickets.
Above 37-40 seems to be a more commonly used latitude.

[dynamark]

Your average eskimo does look a bit pale but he does eat lots of oily fish.

[navyblueshorts]

Ah,  not having a go but it doesn't say that those outside 20N and 20S are getting insufficient vitamin D though, it's just where the sample is taken from and where C19 has been more prevalent, which isn't surprising as most population density is outwith the hot arid areas of intra tropic zones.

I must be missing something:

Hypovitaminosis D is common in Winter (October to March) at Northern latitudes above 20 degrees North, and from April to September at Southern latitudes beyond 20 degrees below the equator.

I wasn't talking about Covid w/ the low [D3] in general. Are we conflating the D3/Covid manuscript w/ the D3 trial link text I also linked?

We were talking about the latitude at which people become Vitamin D deficient through lack of solar radiation intensity. I think we got a bit confused on what we were talking. Clearly sufficient vit d can be produced at much more northerly or southerly latitudes than 20 degrees otherwise there would be considerably more cases of osteoporosis or rickets.
Above 37-40 seems to be a more commonly used latitude.

A lot of our food is supplemented. Interestingly, rickets used to be far more common (https://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/112/2/e132). Also interestingly, have heard it suggested that it's making a bit of a comeback in certain groups that like to cover up.

It's not in that clinical trial that's ongoing. Doesn't matter - the interesting thing is the possible association w/ low [D3] and covid-severity.

[McLaren]

Navy

As we discussed last week, and I thought we were in a agreement with, when discussing the ongoing covid situation we are clearly not debating well established scientific ideas. It is more a discussion based around interest and the best currently available evidence. On top of that why would I put forward or defend someone elses position? My current position is that the UK went through an outbreak of much greater magnitude than similar nations and the death rate currently appears to be much worse. I am happy to be shown differently as the data emerges. Why would I put forward evidence that the Tories are doing a terrific job? That is for those making that claim to do.

But it is not confrontational bias to use the ONS excess deaths figure. That seems like the best place to start in forming any opinion on death rates. Wouldn't you agree?

[super_realist]

Mac, the point is you don't have enough information and you are letting your agenda lead what evidence is available to make a point related to your political viewpoint.
You are suggesting that a late lockdown has been the reason our deaths are one of the highest but aren't taking anything else into account. That I think is Navy's point and your confirmation bias.

[Soul Requiem]

You also can't attribute all excess deaths to one cause either and the increased numbers pre pandemic in January and February back that up somewhat. It's far too simplistic an argument to say that X=Z-Y.

[JAS]

Ethanol is not a toxin in moderate amounts.

Says the biochemist. It's a de facto toxin, by definition.

If you want to be a pedant, but it is not toxic in moderate amounts.

Call it hair-splitting if you like, but it is a toxin. Sure, our bodies have ways of dealing w/ moderate amounts, but they do for moderate amounts of cigarette tar constituents.

Fair enough,  it it's still wrong to compare the harm of cigarettes with the potential harm of alcohol.

That of course depends on what you class as harm. What about the carnage & consequences of DUI? Also, what percentage of DV incidents would list alcohol consumption as a contributing factor?

On purely individual physiological terms Smoking might look worse but even that is debatable because even moderate alcohol intake alters the metabolism such that weight gain (with all its resultant health implications) becomes a factor. Then there's the wider indirect social interaction factors mentioned above.

So overall both smoking and alcohol consumption can reasonably be considered harmful. It's just that we've had decades of the promotion of "moderate" alcohol intake as socially acceptable and people wrongly conflate Socially acceptable and healthy as the same thing, its not.

[JAS]

Navy

Excess death figures come from the ONS. Not sure I understand your confirmation bias accusation?

You, Mac. You look for anything that you think confirms what you already believe and then present that. Don't worry about it though, you're nowhere near alone.

Any discussions around deaths at the moment are premature, you have to consider age and long term health issues. What happens for instance if in 3/4 months the death rate drops massively below average which it could well do, how do we use that information?

I kind of get the cold logic of the point you're trying to make here but I suspect the friends and families of 33000+ would quite emotively disagree. I do think you are correct though that if a significant amount of elderly and infirm (underlying health conditions where the prognosis isnt good) are effectively "checking out" a few months early (i.e. now) then they will not be there to be counted later when they would normally be expected to go.

Bottom line though, the amount of deaths caused by or related to this pandemic is shocking and we cannot dress it up any way other than our response, however well intentioned in places has been shocking. EVERY country has made mistakes sure, but the way our lot are obfuscating some of their (admittedly easy to see with hindsight) errors of judgement is even more shocking.

I'd go as far as to say they won't want an enquiry into the whole debacle and if they are forced into it they'll lie through through their teeth....A bit like Blair and Chilcott really!!

Here's a thought, especially re. care home deaths. I wonder if it reflects on how we treat our older relatives just a bit? You know - can't be bothered to have granny/grandad at home, so parcel them off to a care home. Far too busy to look after them in their later life; I mean, they only brought us up after all. Wonder how care home usage cf. extended family at home compares in UK to, say, Italy? Yes, I'm tarring all the same in treatment of granny/grandad, but you get the gist.

Yup, nailed it Navy, a sad reflection indeed on our rat-race society. That'll be an uncomfortable truth for many. Just how many care homes were there 40 years ago compared to now?

[super_realist]

Ethanol is not a toxin in moderate amounts.

Says the biochemist. It's a de facto toxin, by definition.

If you want to be a pedant, but it is not toxic in moderate amounts.

Call it hair-splitting if you like, but it is a toxin. Sure, our bodies have ways of dealing w/ moderate amounts, but they do for moderate amounts of cigarette tar constituents.

Fair enough,  it it's still wrong to compare the harm of cigarettes with the potential harm of alcohol.

That of course depends on what you class as harm. What about the carnage & consequences of DUI? Also, what percentage of DV incidents would list alcohol consumption as a contributing factor?

On purely individual physiological terms Smoking might look worse but even that is debatable because even moderate alcohol intake alters the metabolism such that weight gain (with all its resultant health implications) becomes a factor. Then there's the wider indirect social interaction factors mentioned above.

So overall both smoking and alcohol consumption can reasonably be considered harmful. It's just that we've had decades of the promotion of "moderate" alcohol intake as socially acceptable and people wrongly conflate Socially acceptable and healthy as the same thing, its not.

Hence why I used the terms "moderate" and "potential"

[McLaren]

Super

I am sure the time of lockdown will form part of the explanation, but at the moment it seems obvious that the UK has had a worse outbreak and higher death rate compared to our peers. Why are and Navy so reluctant to ask why?

Or do you actually dispute that the UK has been hit particularly hard by this?


Soul

You have limited possibilities for the currently high excess deaths. They are either covid, covid collateral or something else is also suddenly killing brits. All options are bad.

[Soul Requiem]

I take it then Mac that there are never fluctuations above and below the average throughout the years?

[super_realist]

Super

I am sure the time of lockdown will form part of the explanation, but at the moment it seems obvious that the UK has had a worse outbreak and higher death rate compared to our peers. Why are and Navy so reluctant to ask why?

Or do you actually dispute that the UK has been hit particularly hard by this?


Soul

You have limited possibilities for the currently high excess deaths. They are either covid, covid collateral or something else is also suddenly killing brits.  All options are bad.

Mac, I'm perfectly happy to accept that has had an influence, but only an idiot would consider it in isolation of all the other factors which contribute to make us worse than our "peers"

There are countries which took as long if not longer to react, yet haven't been affected as badly, so have you never wondered why, and why do you never mention them?

It's a combination of dozens of factors, I'm sure you would have to agree with that, and we do not have the data at present to decide which of those factors is the most significant.

You could look at Ireland for example who took longer to lockdown than we did, they had their first case a day before us and went into lockdown four days later than us but their figures are better (although virtually identical to NI) so while you go on like we are the only country to take so long lockdown, there are others who took longer and aren't fairing as badly, so are you putting too much emphasis on this one factor when there are clearly others making a massive contribution ? It would seem that you are, but then that wouldn't fit your agenda to consider all aspects.

Excess deaths are not just covid or covid collateral.

[beninho]

Is anyone surprised that care workers who downloaded the new nhsx app, were contacted with marketing deals aimed at careworkers?

Is anyone surprised that Hancock is lieing about care home protection in todays briefing?

[kwinigolfer]

Does anyone know how many BAME players are going through the process of FA coaching credentials, this is what matters if this isn't close to the jobs being offered afterwards.

No idea of those numbers.  

Albeit that they don't tell the full story (i.e. they don't tell us how many pursue coaching badges) the stats in the following passage taken from an article in the Independent in 2018 do indicate that there is a barrier (in whatever form it might take):

Since 1990, one in four – just under 25 per cent – of retired England international footballers have been black or from an ethnic minority background (BAME). But of those ex-players who have subsequently gone into a management job, that drops to just one in seven. We’re defining a management job as a club in one of the top five divisions in England, or a big-five league or international side in Europe.

As a white ex-England player, you are twice as likely to end up in a managerial job as your black counterpart. Since 1990, just five black ex-England players have gone into management, under the definition listed above. You’d probably struggle to name all of them, given that only one of them is still in a job and only one of them made it as far as the Premier League (where he lasted six months).
[/quote


Trouble is, fly, none of them (ex-England caps) do well, although obviously Chris Hughton (yes, I know he played for Ireland) has been a successful manager.
But I'm sure he wasn't like Ince, for example, who seemed to think he had a divine right to manage just because of his playing CV. Players who achieve a certain celebrity status, of whatever colour, are soon found out as managers, whether black or white. One or two swim, but most sink. Same in most sports

[McLaren]

Kwini

I guess the sample size is far too small to make a call on the relative performance of BAME managers.

It does seem clear they are not getting a chance.

[kwinigolfer]

Kwini

I guess the sample size is far too small to make a call on the relative performance of BAME managers.

It does seem clear they are not getting a chance.

Why?
Don't see that at all.

Who would you say merits a shot at a Prem League manager position?
Even in the last ten years??

[McLaren]

Kwini

Like always I would just give the social justice answer. And if there wasn't a suitable candidate I would ask why enough BAME players weren't even entering coaching in the first place.

[kwinigolfer]

Kwini

Like always I would just give the social justice answer. And if there wasn't a suitable candidate I would ask why enough BAME players weren't even entering coaching in the first place.

Social justice shouldn't drumpf competence/excellence. And vice versa.

[McLaren]

Maybe I have missed something in the conversation but all I am saying is that given the number of black players over the last 20 years or so you would expect them to have better representation in coaching if no barriers were in place.

[kwinigolfer]

Maybe I have missed something in the conversation but all I am saying is that given the number of black players over the last 20 years or so you would expect them to have better representation in coaching if no barriers were in place.

OK, Bring everyone on.
I've got the most time for Keith Curle who's battled through the lower div's for a decade or more. But I don't know why he hasn't taken his management career further.

But my gripe is with players, black, white or indifferent, who think they're entitled to a big time job just because . . . . .
I'm not prepared to say in any sport that minorities have been significantly disadvantaged, though I also know that, statistically, they probably have been.
And "minority" owners haven't been known for supporting minority coaches/managers.

There's been all the stuff about Michael Jordan, but even his money and his playing skills were not necessarily a guarantee of coaching/managing success. And he bought himself the opportunity to flourish.

Bottom line is: No-one is entitled.

[super_realist]

Is anyone surprised that care workers who downloaded the new nhsx app, were contacted with marketing deals aimed at careworkers?

Is anyone surprised that Hancock is lieing about care home protection in todays briefing?

Why do you always blame the government and not the care home owners? Is  it because the owners aren't a Tory government?
I often get accused of playing the same record again and again.but you are much worse.

By the way, why would carers download an NHS app when they aren't in the NHS?
Furthermore when you visit that site it gives a clear warning that cookies are used on the site, so if you don't want to be targeted with subject related ads you can decline.  Why don't you ever use common sense? It happens on 99% of Web pages. Do you think apps cost nothing to develop?

[super_realist]

Maybe I have missed something in the conversation but all I am saying is that given the number of black players over the last 20 years or so you would expect them to have better representation in coaching if no barriers were in place.

Mac, there's tons of black coaches around Britain, but there doesn't seem to be many in management, now I'm not sure why that is, but could be that in England there are only 92 professional clubs and it's not enough to make a proper evaluation especially when we don't know how many BAME ex players are going down the route of seeking management roles
It would be interesting to find out, however it does appear that there ought to be more based on a casual observation, but if the calibre of black managers around is Sol Campbell and Paul Ince then it's not surprising. Shearer was a rubbish manager too and just because you've been a good player, black or white doesn't mean you'll be a good manager.

I'm surprised Paul Elliot never got into management, I think he would have been good (probably before your time Mac) I think he did a good job of the black players union. Surprised someone as bright as Henrik Larsson hasn't got further up the managerial pole too, so it certainly merits investigation.
Plenty players seek this route and simply don't succeed. You could ask why English managers are generally underrepresented in the Premier League too, and why they have been so poor, an English manager has never won the Premier League.

[beninho]

Realist, you've answered questions i didn't raise.

My issue is what Hancock said at his briefing. Which is basically misleading or a downright lie.

The app was a for carers(you know they can be NHS employers aswell) and designed by NHSX. It was set up by the same private company that people had raised issues about the tracing app. I know you don't care, if you details are sold for profit though. But, why has it only been changed after it was reported?

[super_realist]

Details are not sold though. They know nothing about the user other than they have downloaded the app.
If I go on Google and start searching for a new car, I'm going to get bombarded with car related adverts. Doesn't mean they have details about me, it's the metrics of search engines and cookies and if you really don't want that then actually read the t's and c's instead of scrolling down and just pressing Accept.
People are stupid.The user is to blame because it is clear to anyone who reads it or even has a child's understanding of Internet history.
You give away far more data willingly every time you do anything online than this, so you're just being professionally offended for the sake of it. Why not actually read the cookies statement for a change? It's made clear on this app, but that doesn't suit you.
If people genuinely cared about this stuff they wouldn't have social media, bank cards, loyalty cards, amazon, apps, Instagram, Pinterest, ebay, mobile phones, Internet etc etc etc. You are being incredibly petty and naive but u bet everyone who complains about this has at least some of those things. Sheer hypocrisy.
If you dont want to have targeted ads, don't Dowoad the app, it's hardly an invasion of privacy anyway is it?

[beninho]

The Privacy Policy linked to from the Android app confirms use of PII for marketing: "To distribute our marketing information we may use personal data such as names, addresses, email addresses, employer details, job titles...".

https://t.co/izxogr8kk1

Opt-in is forced too:

"We will process data using the following legal rationale to send marketing information: if your role within an organisation is associated with learning and development we will use legitimate interest as the legal basis to process the data."

Screenshot attached in case the policy is updated again to remove these references. Doesn't sound GDPR compliant to me, especially if you are using a personal email address to register for the app. https://t.co/eoE5QT4w6N

Would also appear that no in/out of marketing information was allowed.

The above a quoted from twitter.

Why were settings changed only after it was raised by the Mirror?

[super_realist]

Sounds like you should probably read what GDPR actually is.
The app doesn't actually require any log in either and it gives you the option to choose and modify your own cookies. So again you've picked a stupid subject to moan about.

[beninho]

Just because you don't care about a government app being used as a marketing tool, with no opt in/out at sign up. Doesn't mean its stupid.

I'm not sure if I think the official care workers app, should be used as a marketing arm for an outside company.

But, we obviously have different views.

What do you think about Dorries and the other 2 posting far right doctored lies about Starmer on social media, and not apologising?

[beninho]

I know people were talking excess deaths the other day. Saw some stats.

For comparison:
UK - 53,300 excess deaths by May 1 + 67%
Spain - 31,500 by May 3 + 60%
Belgium - 5,300 by April 19 +50%
Holland - 8,700 by April 26 + 50%
Italy 24,600 +49% — but only til end-March
France - 28,500 by April 26 +44%

If these have been raised already, I apologise.

[super_realist]

Just because you don't care about a government app being used as a marketing tool, with no opt in/out at sign up. Doesn't mean its stupid.

I'm not sure if I think the official care workers app, should be used as a marketing arm for an outside company.

But, we obviously have different views.

What do you think about Dorries and the other 2 posting far right doctored lies about Starmer on social media, and not apologising?

I've just told you you aren't required to put any information about yourself in to any NHS app.
What official carers app? You also have no knowledge of what is required by Android/Apple app marketplaces either so you can't say why it is being done like that.

Politicians post stuff about other politicians all the time. Who cares.

[super_realist]

I know people were talking excess deaths the other day. Saw some stats.

For comparison:
UK - 53,300 excess deaths by May 1 + 67%
Spain - 31,500 by May 3 + 60%
Belgium - 5,300 by April 19 +50%
Holland - 8,700 by April 26 + 50%
Italy 24,600 +49% — but only til end-March
France - 28,500 by April 26 +44%

If these have been raised already, I apologise.

So what's your point? Different countries have different death rates shocker?

[beninho]

I'm March I emailed a few local pros (golf not actual hookers) about a lesson or assessment. Bounced a couple if emails, then it went quiet, obviously. Got an email back that the range is opening up again next week. Which, I suppose is good, but how's a lesson for social distancing?

[beninho]

I know people were talking excess deaths the other day. Saw some stats.

For comparison:
UK - 53,300 excess deaths by May 1 + 67%
Spain - 31,500 by May 3 + 60%
Belgium - 5,300 by April 19 +50%
Holland - 8,700 by April 26 + 50%
Italy 24,600 +49% — but only til end-March
France - 28,500 by April 26 +44%

If these have been raised already, I apologise.

So what's your point? Different countries have different death rates shocker?

Read the figures how you want to read them. For you, it doesn't matter that we have such a huge percentage increase. Others will find it concerning.

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