Euro 2020 Thread (11th June-11th July)

[Duty281]

First topic message reminder :

Starts in under a week. Might be a fun summer of football to lift the gloom of the previous 12 months.

Groups:

Full Schedule:

Outright Odds:

Portugal to defend their title? France to go one better? Germany return to prominence? Belgium finally get it right? England bring football home? Or will Scotland shock the world?

[Duty281]

Defence has generally looked pretty solid.

So has Pickford. Which tells you everything you need to know about the opposition we’ve faced so far. Expect that to change next Tuesday.

Whoever does win next Tuesday’s match at Wembley, might have a QF against Sweden.

Yes, that's what I meant yesterday by saying that if England win their last 16 match, the path to the final is free of great obstruction. England would be favourites for the QF and SF, if only they can get past their L16 opponents (is it cowardly to pray for Hungary?!).

Sweden's group has been comfortably the worst of the tournament, in terms of both entertainment and quality. Poland haven't turned up. Sweden just stand in two banks of four. Spain play the slowest football in the world and they've just missed another penalty.

Dubravka's just summed up the entire group.

[Guest]

Spain 5-0 up and in control now. They could still top the group if Poland can equalise

[Guest]

2-2

Spain top the group

[Luke]

Poland need one.more for 2nd, Ukraine out if they get it.

[Guest]

Sweden win the group.
Spain v Croatia

England’s half of the draw is wide open, whoever wins on Tuesday

[Luke]

Spain/ Croatia could be a good game.

Poland and Slovakia (due to having a far worse goal difference) out.

[Luke]

Ukraine through as one of the best 3rd place team.

[Duty281]

Yeah one half of the draw is lopsided. Presuming Hungary don't beat the Germans and get through, it's going to end up with:

Belgium, Italy, Spain, Croatia, and two of France/Germany/Portugal (winners and 3rd placed) on one half.

England, one of France/Germany/Portugal (second place), Dutch, Danes on the other half.

If Hungary actually win and finish second, they'll end up in England's half of the draw, making it even more lopsided!

[Luke]

Hungary lead 1-0, at the moment Germany out, if France win Portugal out.

[Luke]

France playing fairly conservative at the moment, pogba almost in the defence getting the ball.

Other confirmed last 16 games so far,

Spain v Croatia,
Italy v Austria, 
Wales v Denmark.

Penalty to Portugal,  Lloris clattering Danilo, Danilo looking in really bad shape after the challenge.

[Luke]

Ronaldo scores, so at the moment Portugal top.

[Guest]

Never a pen, for me

[Luke]

That is never a penalty, no chance. 1-1 Benzema. 

Agree John,  they lack the focal point to bring them forward.

[Duty281]

Hungary seem to have this interesting ability - any team that plays against them struggles to take their chances. Germany have had plenty, like France and Portugal, but they haven't yet scored. And unlike the other two, Germany might be feeling real pressure to rectify that. Hungary have carried a threat on the counter, too, so they may score another.

France still looking disjointed. After a capable performance v Germany, they've really stuttered in the last three halves of football. Griezmann is doing better work in defence than attack, which I think says it all! Wasn't a pen for my money, either, on Mbappe.

Really difficult to figure this group out - all three of the big teams have been inconsistent.

[Luke]

You could argue neither is a penalty, but the Portugal one is more of a case. The France one is a joke of a decision.

France poor, no flow, don't understand the formation as Pogba seems to be futher back than Kante, the right side is not threatening at all.

[Luke]

Good finish, Benzema puts France 2-1 up. 

Now at the moment Portugal out.

[Luke]

If it stays like this,

England get Hungary,  then the winner of Sweden/Ukraine.

[Guest]

2-2 Ronaldo

[Luke]

Handball Against Crundy,  another penalty for Portugal.

Ronaldo scores, Germany back to being out. And Ronaldo moves joint highest male goalscorer ever with his 109th goal.

[Luke]

Germany equalize now Hungary out, and we get Germany. 

Then Hungray score to put them 2-1 up straight from the kick off.

[Luke]

Germany get another equalizer, now 2-2.

[Guest]

Ze Germans coming to Wembley

[Luke]

Ze Germans coming to Wembley

Yep, Portugal getting Belgium and France v Switzerland.

[Duty281]

Amazing drama tonight. Hungary-Germany was enthralling to the last, the Hungarians couldn't quite hold on. They've had decent spells v all three teams and have done themselves amazing credit. France-Portugal lots of controversy, action and fun. Felt the French should have had a penalty right at the end.

Difficult to know what to make of the three heavyweight teams. They've all had good spells and drab spells in this tournament already, Portugal especially after they got torn apart v Germany.

England have the Germans. Revenge for South Africa. Southgate's redemption etc. I think it's probably the best tie England could have realistically hoped for, and in terms of runs to the final you can't ask for much easier* than the potential path England have (Germany/Sweden/Dutch the most likely).

*For clarity, I'm not saying it's easy! I'm saying you would expect a run to the final to be a lot harder than that which England potentially have. They've avoided the big hitters in France, Portugal, Italy, Belgium, and even the Spanish and Croatians are in the other half.

[Jimmy Moz]

Knockouts all sorted then. Come on Wales and Germany.

[Luke]

Feel for Hungray, gave it there all, and 2 good results, but out due to the group.

Still not sure what to make if any of these countries.  France haven't been anything other than efficient,  Germany apart from one game nothing to write home about, and Portugal workmanlike. 
No doubting that on there day they can all turn it on, but seen nothing so far to scare me if I was the other countries.

[Guest]

England have (Germany/Sweden/Dutch the most likely)

For comparison, Portugal to retain, have a route consisting of Belgium > Italy > France > Possibly England or Germany

As far as the tournament is concerned, it’s a shame one half of the draw is stacked and other is relatively poor. The winner of England v Germany should realistically be looking at reaching the final.

[Soul Requiem]

I don't think England will be fearing any team based on performances so far. They should realistically have too much for Germany but England will no doubt make hard work of it, even possibly losing.

[Duty281]

Quick overview of the last 16, some good games in it:

Top Half

Belgium-Portugal in Seville: Probably the best game of the round. I had Portugal as second favourites pre-tournament, but their defence is leaky since Cancelo left, and Belgium will no doubt exploit that with KDB and Hazard getting back into form and fitness. Unsure Portugal's attack will be able to bail out their defence with CR7 not looking totally on it. Belgium win

Italy-Austria in London: No contest, surely? Italy the best team so far with an iron defence and smooth attack. Austria got comfortably outplayed v the Dutch and stumbled past Ukraine and N. Macedonia. Italy win

France-Switzerland in Bucharest: France stuttering into the competition. Never out of second gear v Germany, couldn't put Hungary away, and only came at Portugal in fits and starts. They've got a soft draw here to help them as the Swiss have been no better than average, and weren't even in the same postcode as Italy. France win

Croatia-Spain in Copenhagen: Both teams had poor starts. Both teams only came to life in the last group game. Both teams are in decline. I'll favour Modric to run the midfield, Spain and Morata to go back to mis-firing, and Croatia to edge a very tight game (maybe on pens). Croatia win

Bottom Half

Sweden-Ukraine in Glasgow: Probably the worst tie of the round, though Isak is a joy to watch. I think Sweden's two banks of four will soak up Ukraine's attack and they'll edge a scrappy 1-0. Sweden can be effective, if nothing else. Apart from a good 10-minute spell v the Dutch, Ukraine have done very little. Sweden win

England-Germany in London: Could be good. Though Germany are well ahead in the trophies department, H2H games at major tournaments between these two are usually tight affairs. England haven't actually beat a big nation at a major tournament since 2002, this is a great chance for them to end that run. England haven't yet found a way out of second gear or to get Harry Kane into form, while Germany's defence looks like anyone could carve it open. Winner here will be favourites to make the final. It's time for Southgate's redemption. England win

Dutch-Czech Republic in Budapest: I'll favour an upset here. I've been impressed with the Czech's diligence off-the-ball and they carry just about enough attacking threat through Schick and Jankto. Dutch have been prone to switch off and I'm not sure they have a plan to counter that. Czechs win

Wales-Denmark in Amsterdam: Strongly favour the Danes here. Since the horrific incident to Eriksen, and the subsequent loss to the Finns, they've been steadily improving and growing into the tournament. This game will be like a home match for them, as I don't think Welsh fans are allowed to attend. Wales have worked hard so far, but were comfortably outplayed by both the Swiss and the Italians. Denmark win

[Riggs]

I fully expected the Germans to dominate, they clearly didn't.

Not surprised by the Spanish.

And Portugal vs France was always going to be too close to call.

I do not believe England will beat the Germans, the French could go all the way.

[alfie]

Phew...was a lot of action to catch up on...

Some entertaining stuff in those games. Some bizarre misses/defence errors/debateable penalty calls...but on the whole the better teams made it through.

Do feel a bit sorry for Hungary who might with a bit of luck have survived the Group of Death. And although I guess Poland just weren't good enough it is something of a pity that Lewandowski is now gone from the tournament...

Round of 16 has some interesting match ups. Hard to call because some of the "big" teams haven't really looked all that great - or have stuttered a bit anyway. So although you might say the draw is a bit lopsided I don't think we will miss much in the way of good contests in the knock outs.

If I were to have a stab at the eventual winner right now I guess I'd look to Italy. But I'd have said France before it all started and will probably think someone else next week...hey this is the Euros : anything can happen. No Greece this time but Denmark are still going

[dummy_half]

At various times last night, England's next opponents could have been any of the four teams in the other group.

Certainly not the best Germany team we've ever seen, and England certainly have a good chance if they put in a decent performance. I still think there's a really good team in the England squad, just that we haven't yet found the chemistry - slight issue that our best technical players all play in the same area of the field.

[Soul Requiem]

At various times last night, England's next opponents could have been any of the four teams in the other group.

Certainly not the best Germany team we've ever seen, and England certainly have a good chance if they put in a decent performance. I still think there's a really good team in the England squad, just that we haven't yet found the chemistry - slight issue that our best technical players all play in the same area of the field.

I don't see any reason why Grealish or Mount can't play in a two man midfield with Phillips, both have the all round game to play slightly deeper. You then have someone who can distribute and carry the ball forward at pace which should free up space for the front four.

[alfie]

At various times last night, England's next opponents could have been any of the four teams in the other group.

Certainly not the best Germany team we've ever seen, and England certainly have a good chance if they put in a decent performance. I still think there's a really good team in the England squad, just that we haven't yet found the chemistry - slight issue that our best technical players all play in the same area of the field.

I don't see any reason why Grealish or Mount can't play in a two man midfield with Phillips, both have the all round game to play slightly deeper. You then have someone who can distribute and carry the ball forward at pace which should free up space for the front four.

Now that would certainly be interesting ! Also what Sir Humphrey would call "courageous"... Somehow doubt Southgate will embrace such a plan against Germany. Perhaps against a more defensively minded opponent ?

[BamBam]

Think the coaches view would be that we'd lack height at set pieces defensively. Phillips isn't the tallest and Rice is like a 3rd CB in the air. I also think if you go to that sort of midfield, you'd want Rice in ahead of Phillips as he's the better ball winner, and Mount theoretically makes up for his relative weakness on the ball

[Guest]

——————Kane——————
Sterling—-Grealish——Foden
———Rice———-Phillips———
Shaw-Maguire-Stones-James
—————-Pickford—————

That would be my XI. But it already looks like the media and ex pundits demanding England adapt/match up to Germany’s formation, and force us to play 3 at the back with wing backs. Don’t see the clamour for Mount to return, offered very little in the first two games.

[Soul Requiem]

Think the coaches view would be that we'd lack height at set pieces defensively. Phillips isn't the tallest and Rice is like a 3rd CB in the air. I also think if you go to that sort of midfield, you'd want Rice in ahead of Phillips as he's the better ball winner, and Mount theoretically makes up for his relative weakness on the ball

Rice would probably be the better option in hindsight. The transition between defence and attack is so slow that by the time the front four get the ball the space is gone, our goal against the Czechs came from Sako carrying from deep at pace which opened up the space.

Grealish has to start.

[Riggs]

The Croatia match: Raheem was very lucky to score that goal even though Croatia weren't necessarily the same in form team we all saw in the world cup.

The Scotland match: Scotland not being a world class team had a decent enough defence to prevent England from scoring at all.

The Czech match: Again, the Czechs not being the best team did enough to only concede one 1 goal.

Basically, with England's current performance being as it is, they stand very very little chance of beating a world class team like Germany. The Germans will not allow themselves to be beaten by England especially in a knockout game. 1 nil here and there isn't good enough against a side that gets into gear when it matters. Do England even stand a chance? With a huge dose of luck then maybe. But reality is in Germany's favour, England to lose.

[Soul Requiem]

The Croatia match: Raheem was very lucky to score that goal even though Croatia weren't necessarily the same in form team we all saw in the world cup.

The Scotland match: Scotland not being a world class team had a decent enough defence to prevent England from scoring at all.

The Czech match: Again, the Czechs not being the best team did enough to only concede one 1 goal.

Basically, with England's current performance being as it is, they stand very very little chance of beating a world class team like Germany. The Germans will not allow themselves to be beaten by England especially in a knockout game. 1 nil here and there isn't good enough against a side that gets into gear when it matters. Do England even stand a chance? With a huge dose of luck then maybe. But reality is in Germany's favour, England to lose.

You what?

Germany have conceded five times so far, they are far from a world class team and defensively they're poor. England may not win but as things stand they're reasonable favourites to win, they haven't fired so far but they look an all round better team. England didn't need a last gasp equaliser to qualify for the knockout stages.

[Riggs]

The Croatia match: Raheem was very lucky to score that goal even though Croatia weren't necessarily the same in form team we all saw in the world cup.

The Scotland match: Scotland not being a world class team had a decent enough defence to prevent England from scoring at all.

The Czech match: Again, the Czechs not being the best team did enough to only concede one 1 goal.

Basically, with England's current performance being as it is, they stand very very little chance of beating a world class team like Germany. The Germans will not allow themselves to be beaten by England especially in a knockout game. 1 nil here and there isn't good enough against a side that gets into gear when it matters. Do England even stand a chance? With a huge dose of luck then maybe. But reality is in Germany's favour, England to lose.

You what?

Germany have conceded five times so far, they are far from a world class team and defensively they're poor. England may not win but as things stand they're reasonable favourites to win, they haven't fired so far but they look an all round better team. England didn't need a last gasp equaliser to qualify for the knockout stages.

The Germans are known for getting into gear when it matters minus the Korea game. To discount/dismiss the Germans is a very foolish thing to do. If a team relies too much on pens, they stand a high chance of losing. The Germans are fully aware of what's at stake and they will have the full intention of coming out all guns blazing. In order for England to win, they have to be in form and they haven't been, fully, in this tournament and you need to be at this point, it's basic stuff. England have scraped through, they clearly need more than that at knockout level. Underestimate the opposition at your own peril.

[Duty281]

I'd probably go:

——————Kane——————
Sterling—- Grealish———Saka
——Henderson——Phillips———
Shaw-Maguire-Stones-James
—————-Pickford—————

Germans have been terrible against pace so far; with their slow midfield and defence that's no surprise. So give 'em both barrels with Sterling and Saka running at them, and Rashford/Sancho able to come off the bench. After seeing Hungary's no.9 able to dominate Germany's back-line physically, Kane should have little issue.

Hopefully Henderson is fit enough to start over Rice. Phillips should be able to play a high-intensity box-to-box role for 60 or so minutes, then get Bellingham on to do likewise.

Would rather James starts over Walker. Will be the first real test for England's defence, the main threats being the fluid pair of Havertz and Gnabry. Sane has lots of pace, but little end product. Muller a possible danger off the bench, Werner not showing any real form as yet. England's full-backs should still get forward where possible, especially on Shaw's side where Kimmich usually resides for the Germans.

I do think England are favourites for this, but they must aim to play positive, front-foot football for 90 minutes. If Southgate starts with 3 CBs and two 'wing-backs', that's too negative and hands the advantage to Germany. Same if England play three central midfielders e.g. Henderson-Rice-Phillips. And England must not pull up the drawbridge if they go 1-0 up at any point, as they have in so many games in the past. Attack the opposition, seize the day.

I don't think Southgate will have a better opportunity to win a major tournament with England. It's there for the taking. Favourites for this and favourites for any potential QF or SF match-up they get. Home advantage for both this and the possible SF and F. You can't ask for a better opportunity.

[Soul Requiem]

The Germans are known for getting into gear when it matters minus the Korea game. To discount/dismiss the Germans is a very foolish thing to do. If a team relies too much on pens, they stand a high chance of losing. The Germans are fully aware of what's at stake and they will have the full intention of coming out all guns blazing. In order for England to win, they have to be in form and they haven't been, fully, in this tournament and you need to be at this point, it's basic stuff. England have scraped through, they clearly need more than that at knockout level. Underestimate the opposition at your own peril.

Previous German teams may have been known for that, but that doesn't matter in the here and now. They'll come out all guns blazing with that defence, knowing they'll get torn apart on the counter? Hmmm.

I don't really understand this scraped through nonsense either, England haven't hit top gear partially because they haven't needed to, they were never in any real risk of not making the knockout stages so it makes sense to keep your powder dry. Germany however have twice been on the verge of being knocked out so had to go for it, worth also noting that Croatia are the better team.

[Duty281]

The Croatia match: Raheem was very lucky to score that goal even though Croatia weren't necessarily the same in form team we all saw in the world cup.

The Scotland match: Scotland not being a world class team had a decent enough defence to prevent England from scoring at all.

The Czech match: Again, the Czechs not being the best team did enough to only concede one 1 goal.

Basically, with England's current performance being as it is, they stand very very little chance of beating a world class team like Germany. The Germans will not allow themselves to be beaten by England especially in a knockout game. 1 nil here and there isn't good enough against a side that gets into gear when it matters. Do England even stand a chance? With a huge dose of luck then maybe. But reality is in Germany's favour, England to lose.

Are you Trebell from the cricket forum re-incarnated?! Germans are not world-class - they lost to North Macedonia at home recently in a qualifier, and got smashed 6-0 by Spain in a Nations League game. And now, in this tournament, they got outclassed by France and barely scraped a draw v Hungary. Good win over Portugal, granted, but I think that was more down to Portugal being terrible than Germany being good. I daresay England's group performances, while not stellar by any means, were better than Germany overall.

[Luckless Pedestrian]

England... must aim to play positive, front-foot football for 90 minutes... England must not pull up the drawbridge if they go 1-0 up at any point, as they have in so many games in the past.

How likely do you think any of that is, based on how England have played thus far under Southgate?

[Duty281]

England... must aim to play positive, front-foot football for 90 minutes. And England must not pull up the drawbridge if they go 1-0 up at any point, as they have in so many games in the past. Attack the opposition, seize the day.

How likely do you think that any of that is, based on how England have played thus far under Southgate?

Southgate has done it in the past, so I remain hopeful. I remember Southgate moaning about how negative and limp England were v Italy in 2012, so I hope he remembers that. And England did start fast and with high intensity against Croatia.

[Luckless Pedestrian]

It's a very tough match to call, and I think that's fantastic. You'd favour England with home advantage, but we've seen in the past that playing at home can bring its own pressure. I'd also suggest that Germany might have benefited from having had a tough group.

[dummy_half]

Of course England have also hit the woodwork early in each of the three games. Each of those goes in and we'd be talking about a very competent group stage, even if they've only been good in parts.

Definitely think Saka has to play, especially against a slow and aging German defence - his ability to carry the ball forward 30-40 yards was the big difference against the Czechs. Still unsure about Sterling - great pace, makes good runs but too often without it leading to anything.

Did anyone else notice that against the Czechs we were effectively playing 3 at the back, with Shaw almost always pushed up into a wide midfield position, while Walker was a lot less progressive? Thought Shaw did his job pretty well, in providing the overlapping wide player.

I'm not a million miles from picking the same team as Duty - just trying to figure out how you shoe-horn Foden in there. Possibly for Sterling, with Foden playing as a number 10, Grealish left and Saka right but with them free to interchange. Also might go with Trippier instead of James, in part because he's one of our better dead ball players, and that has been an area of surprising weakness so far.

[Duty281]

——————Kane——————
Sterling—-Grealish——Foden
———Rice———-Phillips———
Shaw-Maguire-Stones-James
—————-Pickford—————

That would be my XI. But it already looks like the media and ex pundits demanding England adapt/match up to Germany’s formation, and force us to play 3 at the back with wing backs. Don’t see the clamour for Mount to return, offered very little in the first two games.

Goodness, yes, I've just seen Gary Neville's tweet. Wants to play a back 7, effectively, with no Grealish/Foden/Mount.

Such a negative mindset, worrying about what the Germans are going to do. How about making the Germans worry about what England are going to do? Thank goodness he's no longer in the coaching set-up.

[dummy_half]

Of course the problem with going ultra-defensive is that we would be playing without the ball too much, and even when we do have it, not having anywhere to go forwards so just continually inviting pressure.

I think it's very rarely the right thing to do to try and set a team up to negate a specific opponent - the only possible exception would be if you are against an individual like Messi, where you man mark him (hell, worked for Alf Ramsey in 1966 and almost in 1970, with Bobby Charlton marking Beckenbauer).

[Soul Requiem]

Of course the problem with going ultra-defensive is that we would be playing without the ball too much, and even when we do have it, not having anywhere to go forwards so just continually inviting pressure.

I think it's very rarely the right thing to do to try and set a team up to negate a specific opponent - the only possible exception would be if you are against an individual like Messi, where you man mark him (hell, worked for Alf Ramsey in 1966 and almost in 1970, with Bobby Charlton marking Beckenbauer).

Beckenbauer had the same instruction for those games too, man marked by the man you're man marking.

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