Euro 2020 Thread (11th June-11th July)

[Duty281]

First topic message reminder :

Starts in under a week. Might be a fun summer of football to lift the gloom of the previous 12 months.

Groups:

Full Schedule:

Outright Odds:

Portugal to defend their title? France to go one better? Germany return to prominence? Belgium finally get it right? England bring football home? Or will Scotland shock the world?

[Duty281]

Doku absolutely destroyed their right back, and they’ve also lost, Spinazzolla. Pace, and quality end product to go with it, will decimate them. If Lukaku could of finished his chances, he would of had a hat trick against the Italians. Even Arnautovic caused them a whole host of issues, and was a VAR decision away from knocking them the hell out.

Italians are a decent outfit, and have great team spirit, but that’s about as far as I can go. Spain are pretty woeful, and the Danes are just being carried by the emotion and responsibility they feel, to play for, Eriksen. One would imagine that would be mentally and physically draining, and signs of that was showing against the Czech’s in their second half.

It’s coming home

Blimey, keep calm!

From here I'd probably put Italy at 45% chance, England 40%, Denmark 10% and Spain at 5%.

Bookmakers' odds are currently England 6/4, Italy 9/4, Spain 11/4 and Denmark 9/1. Feel as though Spain are being drastically overrated because of their name and what they did 9-13 years ago.

[GSC]

The biggest thing for me, is how England and Italy respond to going behind. England haven't really had to press the gas pedal as of yet, and Italy have looked wide open against the counter in this tournament.

[eirebilly]

Spain are being slightly under rated here I feel. They are exactly the type of team that will cause Italy problems. They have also come through some very tough tests and shown some great resiliency. I would still make Italy (slight) favorites but Spain will tire them badly I feel. Especially since the gamesmanship of the Italians has been highlighted to the referees, they will not be fooled by the simulations.

England should, and i do mean should, have too much for Denmark, especially at home. Denmark have been playing on pure passion and England will be that step too far for them.

[Dolphin Ziggler]

England also the only team not to have lost a game on xG. It’s hard to really put that specific stat into any context, but it’s definitely good.

I think England have been the obvious victors in every game, whilst Italy were only really better than Belgium by being clinical. Not a bad skill to have, mind.

Spinazzola’s injury could be huge, Emerson isn’t half the threat and Italy have been built around what is basically a five man attack. If Emerson can’t create the space for (I think) Insigne down that side, they may suffer.

I’m fascinated to see them play against Spain. If any team has the passing skills to exploit the gaps left, it’s them. But whether they can handle the tempo of Italy is another.

England vs Denmark should be fascinating too. They embarrassed Wales and Russia, but looked poor in losing their lead against Belgium. Momentum is behind both sides, but I’m unsure they’ve really dealt with a midfield operating as well as England’s. They weren’t great against them Czechs either.

[Duty281]

England also the only team not to have lost a game on xG. It’s hard to really put that specific stat into any context, but it’s definitely good.

Italy haven't either, they beat Belgium on xG by 2.23-1.86 (infogol). And Belgium's xG was only that high because of the dubious penalty they got, it would have been 1.06 for chances in open play, which shows how well Italy restricted their talented opponents (albeit some carrying injuries)

By the same infogol statistics England haven't won every game on xG, unlike Italy, because they drew on xG with the Germans (1.33 each). It's tougher to judge England's success on xG because they haven't played a high-quality opponent yet.

[Soul Requiem]

What on earth is xG?

[Duty281]

Expected goals.

Apparently revolutionary, but getting over-used I feel. It's useful for season-long data, but in short tournaments such as this one and individual games I think it's of little value.

[Soul Requiem]

Seems like a load of nonsense stolen from American sports where stats are everything.

Take the England-Germany game for example, there is no way that game should have ended a draw. We had two clear cut chances and scored both while Germany had one.

[Dolphin Ziggler]

England also the only team not to have lost a game on xG. It’s hard to really put that specific stat into any context, but it’s definitely good.

Italy haven't either, they beat Belgium on xG by 2.23-1.86 (infogol). And Belgium's xG was only that high because of the dubious penalty they got, it would have been 1.06 for chances in open play, which shows how well Italy restricted their talented opponents (albeit some carrying injuries)

By the same infogol statistics England haven't won every game on xG, unlike Italy, because they drew on xG with the Germans (1.33 each). It's tougher to judge England's success on xG because they haven't played a high-quality opponent yet.

Different model to every one I've seen, lots with Belgium ahead. Wonder where the difference is. Equally seen none with Germany ahead in that game.

[Dolphin Ziggler]

xG is just another thing to look at and take note from, as with any stat. It's quite useful when discussing quality of chance, as that is what it's for. 

Certainly not something for traditionalists.

[Duty281]

Ultimately xG is flawed in three areas:

1) I believe it treats all players the same - a chance for Kane 18 yards out will be assigned the same probability as a chance for Shaw in the exact same position. This is where the xG model is tremendously flawed when assessing team v team comparisons. If xG was solely used to assess individual players it would be stronger.

2) Shots that are 'not taken' e.g. Kane's chance v Germany just before half-time where he neglected to shoot with his left before getting tackled, or Gazza sliding in at Euro 96 and missing the ball v Germany, would be assigned '0' with xG as there's no present way of calculating it. This is obviously a nonsense.

3) It can't properly adjust for tactical switches e.g. a team goes 2-0 up inside 10 minutes, they're happy to sit back for the rest of the game, they concede a litany of half-chances but don't concede. They win 2-0, but because they've been sitting back for 80 minutes, their xG suffers as a result. Or Spain-Switzerland from this tournament - Spain's xG will be inflated because of that 50 minutes or so they spent playing against Switzerland's 10-man defence (probably why they're the furthest right on that graph).

I'd also probably have a minor quibble at how the 'probability' is calculated for the various chances. Infogol puts Sterling's goal v Germany as a 66% chance of scoring, Kane's v Germany as a 47% chance, and Kane's first v Ukraine as 51%. On the face of it, these %s seem too low.

[Duty281]

For Wednesday's game I'd like to see England play this:

——————Kane——————
Sterling—- Grealish———Saka
——Henderson——Phillips———
Shaw-Maguire-Stones-Trippier
—————-Pickford—————

Trippier ahead of Walker because I feel Denmark's greatest threat is down the left. Walker followed up one good game v Germany with a couple of errors v Ukraine that would be costly against better opposition. Henderson adds a lot to this England team, I just hope he's fit enough to start, same with Grealish. Saka over Sancho, a tight call, I wouldn't be too fussed either way, but I hope Southgate goes for a second pace option and not Foden.

In terms of what I'm expecting, I think Southgate will certainly start Rice. If Southgate goes for a back five to match Denmark, which I sincerely hope he doesn't, Mount will be the one sacrificed for another defender - if it's a back four, I'd expect Mount to retain his spot over Grealish/Foden. I think Saka will start over Sancho if he's fit enough to do so.

[alfie]

I don't dislike your selection , Duty. Assuming it is a back four it is probably what I'd prefer ; with the reservation that I quite like the idea of Grealish starting on the bench and coming on later to step up the pressure on a tiring opponent , so wouldn't complain if Mount started.
As you say though , Southgate will almost certainly go with Rice (and to be fair he's arguably earned his spot) and use Henderson to keep things - hopefully - settled late in the game. And I'd say he will probably stick with Walker too. Saka/Sancho toss a coin.
Wouldn't rule out the back five option though. I know it isn't popular on here ; but by good judgement or good fortune most of Southgate's choices have worked quite well so far : if they do go that way I will defer to his wisdom

[GSC]

I'd be surprised at any changes beyond maybe Sancho.

[Duty281]

Italy: Donnarumma, Di Lorenzo, Bonucci, Chiellini, Emerson Palmieri, Barella, Jorginho, Verratti, Chiesa, Immobile, Insigne.

Spain: Simon, Azpilicueta, Garcia, Laporte, Jordi Alba, Koke, Busquets, Pedri, Ferran Torres, Oyarzabal, Olmo.

Emerson in for Spinazzolla, Italy's only change. Morata, Sarabia and Pau Torres out for Spain, Oyarzabal, Olmo and Garcia coming in.

Favouring Italy to record a comfortable 2-0 win and end Spain's perfect record at European Championship semi-finals.

[Guest]

Spain to win

The Italians are massively overrated

[Duty281]

Really intense start from Spain, arguably their best 15-20 minutes of the tournament as they suffocated Italy...but no end product and no reward for it. Unlikely to be able to keep up that intensity for much longer.

Spain's high line giving Italy's forwards plenty of encouragement.

[Guest]

Spain the better side, but toothless. Italians look relatively poor, and losing the midfield battle.

[alfie]

Spain running rings around them for most of that half...but no end product. Seems odd to suggest a team that has scored so many goals in the tournament lacks effective strikers but on the evidence of this half...

Italy should be happy to be still level.

[Dolphin Ziggler]

Ultimately xG is flawed in three areas:

1) I believe it treats all players the same - a chance for Kane 18 yards out will be assigned the same probability as a chance for Shaw in the exact same position. This is where the xG model is tremendously flawed when assessing team v team comparisons. If xG was solely used to assess individual players it would be stronger.

2) Shots that are 'not taken' e.g. Kane's chance v Germany just before half-time where he neglected to shoot with his left before getting tackled, or Gazza sliding in at Euro 96 and missing the ball v Germany, would be assigned '0' with xG as there's no present way of calculating it. This is obviously a nonsense.

3) It can't properly adjust for tactical switches e.g. a team goes 2-0 up inside 10 minutes, they're happy to sit back for the rest of the game, they concede a litany of half-chances but don't concede. They win 2-0, but because they've been sitting back for 80 minutes, their xG suffers as a result. Or Spain-Switzerland from this tournament - Spain's xG will be inflated because of that 50 minutes or so they spent playing against Switzerland's 10-man defence (probably why they're the furthest right on that graph).

I'd also probably have a minor quibble at how the 'probability' is calculated for the various chances. Infogol puts Sterling's goal v Germany as a 66% chance of scoring, Kane's v Germany as a 47% chance, and Kane's first v Ukraine as 51%. On the face of it, these %s seem too low.

You know it’s not about any of these things?

So it doesn’t take player into account because it’s about averages and showing who is achieving based on these.

It’s not about things that aren’t shots.

It’s about just the shots.

The only people who get really annoyed at xG are people who think it’s some sort of metric for changing the whole analysis of football. It’s not, it’s just an analysis of quality of chance from shots. You will generally find better teams create higher xG, of course, but it’s just another tool for looking at games. Outperforming your xG is more important than your xG. Or xGA (goals against).

It’s just another thing to take interest in. It’s not some be-all, end-all.

[Dolphin Ziggler]

Very impressed with Spain here.

For all the talk about their play on the ball, it’s what they’re doing to how Italy play that is making this fun.

[Duty281]

A lack of quality finishing cost Spain in two games (Spain and Poland) and nearly a third against the Swiss, where they needed pens. It only clicked for them v Croatia.

Spain will be full of regret, they likely won't dominate the second half to anywhere near the same extent.

[Duty281]

Ultimately xG is flawed in three areas:

1) I believe it treats all players the same - a chance for Kane 18 yards out will be assigned the same probability as a chance for Shaw in the exact same position. This is where the xG model is tremendously flawed when assessing team v team comparisons. If xG was solely used to assess individual players it would be stronger.

2) Shots that are 'not taken' e.g. Kane's chance v Germany just before half-time where he neglected to shoot with his left before getting tackled, or Gazza sliding in at Euro 96 and missing the ball v Germany, would be assigned '0' with xG as there's no present way of calculating it. This is obviously a nonsense.

3) It can't properly adjust for tactical switches e.g. a team goes 2-0 up inside 10 minutes, they're happy to sit back for the rest of the game, they concede a litany of half-chances but don't concede. They win 2-0, but because they've been sitting back for 80 minutes, their xG suffers as a result. Or Spain-Switzerland from this tournament - Spain's xG will be inflated because of that 50 minutes or so they spent playing against Switzerland's 10-man defence (probably why they're the furthest right on that graph).

I'd also probably have a minor quibble at how the 'probability' is calculated for the various chances. Infogol puts Sterling's goal v Germany as a 66% chance of scoring, Kane's v Germany as a 47% chance, and Kane's first v Ukraine as 51%. On the face of it, these %s seem too low.

You know it’s not about any of these things?

So it doesn’t take player into account because it’s about averages and showing who is achieving based on these.

It’s not about things that aren’t shots.

It’s about just the shots.

The only people who get really annoyed at xG are people who think it’s some sort of metric for changing the whole analysis of football. It’s not, it’s just an analysis of quality of chance from shots. You will generally find better teams create higher xG, of course, but it’s just another tool for looking at games. Outperforming your xG is more important than your xG. Or xGA (goals against).

It’s just another thing to take interest in. It’s not some be-all, end-all.

Some people believe xG is a game-changing way of analysing football, when it's fundamentally a very flawed statistic which requires a great degree of refinement, hence my criticisms.

[Duty281]

Huzzah, Busquets finally in the book.

[Guest]

Chiesa 1-0 up

Italians are not even that good. If Spain could finish…

[Duty281]

Toothless Spain get done in by the best rope-a-dope since Ali.

Poor defence from the Spanish. Sumptuous finish from Chiesa.

[alfie]

Nice goal... Talk about "against the run of play" . But who cares ? 1-0 Italy.

Cue a lot of delaying/falling over , etc...

[Duty281]

Referee (he's been excellent so far) will likely take a dim view of potential Italian gamesmanship, but we'll see...

Oh dear Oyarzabal.

[alfie]

Well deserved equaliser ! Game on...

[Guest]

Italians are average. Massively let off during this tournament, and being exposed again here by Spain. Austria should of knocked them out.

[GSC]

Move the ball through this Italian side at pace and they just can't deal with it. Pressing hard from the front

[Duty281]

Really poor from Chiellini, surprisingly.

What a last ten this could be.

[alfie]

Morata picked a great time to get his finishing mojo on...not surprised that the excellent Olmo was the one to lay it on for him...

So will Spain do the job from here ? Wouldn't mind another 30 minutes , myself

[Guest]

Another bonus for England/Denmark here, this lot going to ET. From England’s perspective, you’d want Italy to win from here.

[Duty281]

I still reckon England would have a better chance with Spain than Italy, if England get to the final of course. Spain's third consecutive visit to extra-time now.

[GSC]

It's difficult to see where an Italian winner is coming from without a Spanish mistake I think.

[alfie]

Wonder what we will get now : thirty more minutes of full- on action : or half an hour of shadow boxing followed by penalties ?

Spain have the "momentum" , I guess. But Italy have a knack of edging these games somehow...

[Duty281]

Yeah, it's got a filthy Italian winner written all over it.

[alfie]

It's difficult to see where an Italian winner is coming from without a Spanish mistake I think.

I suppose with their excellent but somewhat "adventurous " keeper , a Spanish error remains a possibility

[GSC]

Toloi lucky to get away with a yellow a minute ago, gets it now

[GSC]

Italian time wasting is in full flow, they've settled

[Guest]

It’s penalties

[alfie]

Ah well , penalties it is. Not surprised.

Do not love this method of settling a game but I guess it is superior to a boundary count

[Duty281]

Absorbing technical clash that one. Good standard of football, shame it's going to the lucky dip.

When Italy won the Euros for the only time in 1968, they drew their semi-final with the Soviet Union AET...it was decided by a coin toss.

[Guest]

Jorginho wins it

Italy are pretty average. England have nothing to fear.

[Duty281]

Blimey, whose idea was it to put Morata up for a spot-kick?! I'd sooner put the keeper up than him!

Italy through.

Will be tough for Denmark or England to displace them.

Spain's best performance of the tournament by far, but finishing woes cost them.

[Duty281]

Jorginho wins it

Italy are pretty average. England have nothing to fear.

Calm down, lad, got the semi-final first!

[alfie]

Italy. Guess they have been the best team through the six games overall ; but they've been dead lucky today.
Might just have used up their lucky charm quota ?

If either England or Denmark can get the job done (especially if in 90 minutes ) tomorrow, they might fancy they'll have an edge .

[Guest]

Italy. Guess they have been the best team through the six games overall

If that’s the case, just emphasises how poor the tourney has been. Italy were woeful tonight, terrible v Austria, and lukaku’s misses let Italy off v Belgium.

Distinctly average side, for me. Pace ruins Italy, and we have that in abundance.

[alfie]

A great pity that Olmo (my player of the match) had to be one who missed : guess the pressure got to him.

Have to credit Italy for their ability to keep their heads even when they're getting outplayed. Makes them very tough to beat.

Anyway , another enjoyable game. Hope tomorrow brings another such.

With a home win , I hope

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