The Covid-19 serious chat thread

[Dolphin Ziggler]

First topic message reminder :

I will edit misinformation that I consider disrespectful and insulting. If you can’t respect that, they’ll be changed more firmly.

Such censorship is disappointing, but unsurprising given the often over-zealous moderating on here. Little wonder so many posters have drifted away when fair discussion is discouraged and alternative points of view are policed.

Over such a sensitive subject, and with people on here likely to have known people who have died, I stand by it on this issue and find your need to make a dig at the site disappointing.

Any further complaints can be directed to my inbox. Further comments will be moderated. Dangerous misinformation, especially presented as fact, will be moderated. If you feel your liberties unjustly compromised, go shout out a window or something.

[Big]

I am completely with lostinwales - I can remember pubs/restaurants before the ban and have absolutely no regrets.  Crucially the difference between smoking and eating sugar is that if I sit in a pub and smoke, not only am I harming myself, but I am harming those around me.  And, potentially that includes those that have no choice not to be there (children with parents, staff who can't get a job elsewhere, etc).  If I sit and eat a donut it will have zero impact on those around me.

While I understand why Duty281 might see the smoking ban as a matter for individual establishments, that sounds to me like it's rooted in a philosophy that capitalism actually works effectively all the time.  There are lots of things capitalism does well, but sometimes it needs a nudge.  Back in the day I always thought it was complete madness that there weren't pubs/restaurants that banned smoking indoors (or even everywhere on the premises).  There were 13 pubs in my town and if 1 of them made that shift they'd have been unbelievably busy because so many of us would have gone there by default.  However, it seemed to be accepted wisdom in the industry that they couldn't survive if smokers were banned and as a result none dared to it.  The fact that it didn't happen naturally demonstrates to me exactly why sometimes it is good for the government to step in.

I'd agree that in other areas rules/regs go too far, but smoking I'm glad to see the back of.

Out of interest, Well-Past-It, does your view that the NHS not treat self-inflicted problems include getting injured playing rugby? One of the few sports that actuaries at insurance companies deem to result in more health risk than benefit.

[Samo]

Its all well and good arguing for a free society were people can do as they please, but the problem is the capitalist system is rigged against us to get as much out of us as possible, often at the cost of our health. Fixed Odds Betting Terminals (FOBTs) are probably the best example of this. Explicitly designed to get as much money from a punter as possible, with the possibility of staking as much as £100 every 20 seconds - before the pesky government stepped in and capped it at £2.

[Duty281]

It's very simple actually - don't use Fixed Odds Betting Terminals and you won't lose money.

Never quite understood the hysteria about FOBTs, in all honesty. On smartphones - and indeed any device that connects to the Internet - you can stake far more at an online casino than you ever could on a FOBT, all without ever leaving the house, and at any time of the day or night.

[Duty281]

What do you mean by 'less able'? Do you mean restricted from exercising our common sense, or that our common sense is being eroded?

The latter. If the government provides needless and overarching regulation and taxation, then society will evolve to a position where common sense is less of a requirement and less practised, because society will believe that the government is responsible for a wider range of issues than it actually is. Then in a position where common sense is required society will be less able to use it. And in a time of government incompetence society is further hindered.

The solution is less government interference which will encourage individuals to take greater responsibility for their actions which will, eventually, lead to the betterment of society as a whole.

[JuliusHMarx]

If we (people in general) let our common sense be eroded by government action, that just proves we didn't have much common sense in the first place.

[jimbopip]

I tuned in to this thread to see what today's revelations about the Fat Adulterer were stirring up....and lo and behold Duty 281 has sidetracked the discussion onto one about "Freedom Of Choice", that old right wing standby. Accidental?

Just to remind everyone; Cummings' latest kiss and tell says that everything we suspected about Johnson is probably true...and then some.

But hey, let's argue about Freedom Of Choice.

[Duty281]

I tuned in to this thread to see what today's revelations about the Fat Adulterer were stirring up....and lo and behold Duty 281 has sidetracked the discussion onto one about "Freedom Of Choice", that old right wing standby. Accidental?

Just to remind everyone; Cummings' latest kiss and tell says that everything we suspected about Johnson is probably true...and then some.

But hey, let's argue about Freedom Of Choice.

If I were right-wing or supportive of this government or the Tory Party in general, you may have had a point here.

It's related to the discussion about 'Freedom Day' and the gradual lifting of restrictions.

I struggle to take much interest in the liar Dominic Cummings and what he says with his perpetual axe to grind. Of course, I am at least consistent in this point. Many people who thought Cummings was a liar around 13 months ago are now suddenly holding him up as a bastion of truth and honour because he's criticising Johnson.

[superflyweight]

I tuned in to this thread to see what today's revelations about the Fat Adulterer were stirring up....and lo and behold Duty 281 has sidetracked the discussion onto one about "Freedom Of Choice", that old right wing standby. Accidental?

Just to remind everyone; Cummings' latest kiss and tell says that everything we suspected about Johnson is probably true...and then some.

But hey, let's argue about Freedom Of Choice.

If I were right-wing or supportive of this government or the Tory Party in general, you may have had a point here.

It's related to the discussion about 'Freedom Day' and the gradual lifting of restrictions.

I struggle to take much interest in the liar Dominic Cummings and what he says with his perpetual axe to grind. Of course, I am at least consistent in this point. Many people who thought Cummings was a liar around 13 months ago are now suddenly holding him up as a bastion of truth and honour because he's criticising Johnson.

Oh Christ.  We're a maximum of two posts away from him telling us he's a libertarian.

[WELL-PAST-IT]

I am completely with lostinwales - I can remember pubs/restaurants before the ban and have absolutely no regrets.  Crucially the difference between smoking and eating sugar is that if I sit in a pub and smoke, not only am I harming myself, but I am harming those around me.  And, potentially that includes those that have no choice not to be there (children with parents, staff who can't get a job elsewhere, etc).  If I sit and eat a donut it will have zero impact on those around me.

While I understand why Duty281 might see the smoking ban as a matter for individual establishments, that sounds to me like it's rooted in a philosophy that capitalism actually works effectively all the time.  There are lots of things capitalism does well, but sometimes it needs a nudge.  Back in the day I always thought it was complete madness that there weren't pubs/restaurants that banned smoking indoors (or even everywhere on the premises).  There were 13 pubs in my town and if 1 of them made that shift they'd have been unbelievably busy because so many of us would have gone there by default.  However, it seemed to be accepted wisdom in the industry that they couldn't survive if smokers were banned and as a result none dared to it.  The fact that it didn't happen naturally demonstrates to me exactly why sometimes it is good for the government to step in.

I'd agree that in other areas rules/regs go too far, but smoking I'm glad to see the back of.

Out of interest, Well-Past-It, does your view that the NHS not treat self-inflicted problems include getting injured playing rugby?  One of the few sports that actuaries at insurance companies deem to result in more health risk than benefit.

Not quite, but if I were still a player and I repeatedly suffered concussions and my doctor recommended me to stop playing and I didn't, maybe. The point is if you carry on going against medical advice to stop or moderate your life style, you know what the likelihood will be and it becomes a conscious  decision to ignore the medical advice and you have accepted that likelihood, whatever it might be.

Breaking your leg playing rugby is not quite the same thing, I have not heard any doctors say that playing rugby will in all likelihood result and heart disease, cancer, or liver disease (although the rugby culture mat have such problems), nor I have I heard the BMA advise against playing rugby.

[Big]

I tuned in to this thread to see what today's revelations about the Fat Adulterer were stirring up....

It didn't stir up anything in me because there weren't any revelations. Everything I've heard is stuff that was kind of obvious a long time ago. I've known folks that worked with BoJo (and his brother) and in addition BoJo has regularly used his column inches to make his lack of competence and attitude to others very very clear. Nothing at this point is even remotely surprising. Even my Tory supporting friends think he has been a complete disaster on multiple fronts, and find the lack of integrity at the top alarming. Boris is riding high on the success of the vaccine right now, but once that wanes I suspect thinks will get a lot tougher for him, and honestly I'll be a little surprised if he survives until the next election (assuming no early election).

[lostinwales]

And on the vaccination front I saw something saying that all of the EU will have caught up with the UK on vaccination numbers by the start of August. They got something right, but didn't manage to follow through, and also managed to blow any advantages it gave us.

Still they won't shut up about vaccination rates until they feel it no longer gives them kudos.

From the start the whole focus on presentation over content over the pandemic really has driven me nuts.

[WELL-PAST-IT]

Apart from buying the vaccines, have the Government actually done anything else with regard to the vaccination rollout. I thought that it was the NHS that were organising and controlling it?


Oh and taking the credit for it of course.

[jimbopip]

I tuned in to this thread to see what today's revelations about the Fat Adulterer were stirring up....and lo and behold Duty 281 has sidetracked the discussion onto one about "Freedom Of Choice", that old right wing standby. Accidental?

Just to remind everyone; Cummings' latest kiss and tell says that everything we suspected about Johnson is probably true...and then some.

But hey, let's argue about Freedom Of Choice.

If I were right-wing or supportive of this government or the Tory Party in general, you may have had a point here.

It's related to the discussion about 'Freedom Day' and the gradual lifting of restrictions.

I struggle to take much interest in the liar Dominic Cummings and what he says with his perpetual axe to grind. Of course, I am at least consistent in this point. Many people who thought Cummings was a liar around 13 months ago are now suddenly holding him up as a bastion of truth and honour because he's criticising Johnson.

I don't think so. The way Johnson manages his cabinet reminds me of Elvis Presley and his Memphis Mafia: basically he surrounded himself with "good ole boys" who received a salary and lifestyle they could never have dreamt of, or ever achieved anywhere else, and all he demanded was complete uncritical loyalty, even when asked to behave illegally.  Look at the level of incompetence in the current Cabinet; look at the way they follow orders slavishly and never criticise even when they are defending a 180 degree volte face; John Whitingdale when challenged on the free school meals fiasco "I voted with the government....I voted with the government.", or Nadim Zahawi yesterday still trying to say Johnson and Sunak never intended to avoid self isolating. No, Cummings IS a liar and we all know that; the interesting thing is he knows he will never get another job with Johnson so is free to get his own back by spilling the beans. Contrast this with Matt Hancock who Johnson refused to sack but replied to his resignation letter by saying that he looked forward to working with him again in government in the future. Or as we stupid people say, "I didn't want to sack you. Keep shtum and I'll have you in a chauffeur driven car asap."

[Duty281]

I tuned in to this thread to see what today's revelations about the Fat Adulterer were stirring up....and lo and behold Duty 281 has sidetracked the discussion onto one about "Freedom Of Choice", that old right wing standby. Accidental?

Just to remind everyone; Cummings' latest kiss and tell says that everything we suspected about Johnson is probably true...and then some.

But hey, let's argue about Freedom Of Choice.

If I were right-wing or supportive of this government or the Tory Party in general, you may have had a point here.

It's related to the discussion about 'Freedom Day' and the gradual lifting of restrictions.

I struggle to take much interest in the liar Dominic Cummings and what he says with his perpetual axe to grind. Of course, I am at least consistent in this point. Many people who thought Cummings was a liar around 13 months ago are now suddenly holding him up as a bastion of truth and honour because he's criticising Johnson.

I don't think so. The way Johnson manages his cabinet reminds me of Elvis Presley and his Memphis Mafia: basically he surrounded himself with "good ole boys" who received a salary and lifestyle they could never have dreamt of, or ever achieved anywhere else, and all he demanded was complete uncritical loyalty, even when asked to behave illegally.  Look at the level of incompetence in the current Cabinet; look at the way they follow orders slavishly and never criticise even when they are defending a 180 degree volte face; John Whitingdale when challenged on the free school meals fiasco "I voted with the government....I voted with the government.", or Nadim Zahawi yesterday still trying to say Johnson and Sunak never intended to avoid self isolating. No, Cummings IS a liar and we all know that; the interesting thing is he knows he will never get another job with Johnson so is free to get his own back by spilling the beans. Contrast this with Matt Hancock who Johnson refused to sack but replied to his resignation letter by saying that he looked forward to working with him again in government in the future. Or as we stupid people say, "I didn't want to sack you. Keep shtum and I'll have you in a chauffeur driven car asap."

The way Johnson manages his cabinet is pretty much the same as how any PM in post WW2 history has managed their cabinet. He is not remotely unique in this aspect.

Cabinet following orders and rarely criticising the higher-ups - yes, that's a completely normal thing to happen. As a collective, cabinet wants to be seen as pulling in the same direction, they can't do this if they're seen to be bickering all the time (at least in public; they almost certainly do bicker in private). On an individual level, cabinet members wouldn't ordinarily like to criticise the PM because he is essentially their boss - promotions/demotions and such rely on him. This is how it has always been, it doesn't matter who the PM is.

I don't think Johnson has surrounded himself with people who receive a 'salary and lifestyle they could never have dream of' in return. Many of his cabinet have been in cabinet before, and will be in cabinet again when he's gone. Many of his advisors have been swilling around the top layers of government/the civil service for years and will continue to do so after Johnson departs.

We don't know if Cummings is 'spilling the beans' or not. He's a liar with an axe to grind. He may be talking a load of own pony. He may be telling the truth, but with his track record I doubt it.

[lostinwales]

Its a question of which set of bullsh!tters you believe and when. If Cummings can corroborate his statements with actual evidence it makes it a little more believable than yet another nodding donkey.

Its also a question of degrees. PM's will want loyalty and will, or should, always be aware of who is going to stab them in the back. Few are as paranoid as Johnson, who seems to want to avoid any kind of scrutiny at all costs. This cabinet is remarkable in its lack of identity. It is true that a few might end up in cabinet posts in the future but that is going to be for the damning reason that there is a lack of viable options. Some of them, like Patel, should never have got another chance after the Israel debacle.

If you want to go to another extreme Blair's first cabinet was remarkable for the number of characters present, the different views and some real ability. I would point out that that 'colour' had largely disappeared by the end of his time as PM, but in the early days the future seemed so much brighter.

Strong leaders tolerate strong characters in their court. Johnson is not a strong leader.

[jimbopip]

Its a question of which set of bullsh!tters you believe and when. If Cummings can corroborate his statements with actual evidence it makes it a little more believable than yet another nodding donkey.  

Its also a question of degrees. PM's will want loyalty and will, or should, always be aware of who is going to stab them in the back. Few are as paranoid as Johnson, who seems to want to avoid any kind of scrutiny at all costs. This cabinet is remarkable in its lack of identity. It is true that a few might end up in cabinet posts in the future but that is going to be for the damning reason that there is a lack of viable options. Some of them, like Patel, should never have got another chance after the Israel debacle.

If you want to go to another extreme Blair's first cabinet was remarkable for the number of characters present, the different views and some real ability. I would point out that that 'colour' had largely disappeared by the end of his time as PM, but in the early days the future seemed so much brighter.

Strong leaders tolerate strong characters in their court. Johnson is not a strong leader.

There are two things worth mentioning here: practically the first thing Johnson did as PM was withdraw the party whip from several established "Big Beasts" in the Tory party for voting against him thus ending their parliamentary careers,  followed swiftly by the Israel debacle with Patel which occurred simultaneously with Gavalar selling defence secrets,  both these breaches of ministerial conduct served to weaken May's standing within her party and with the public. Her subsequent resignation cleared the way for Johnson's leadership campaign. Did he connive with fellow cabinet ministers to topple her? Well none of Patel, Gove or Gavalar have won plaudits for their competence and almost any other PM would have sacked each them several times over yet Johnson has shielded them at all costs.

Oh, and Duty 281 even though I have an Honours Degree in Politics I am still really grateful to you for taking the time to explain the concept of Collective Responsibility In Cabinet to me. Much appreciated.

[Duty281]

Its a question of which set of bullsh!tters you believe and when. If Cummings can corroborate his statements with actual evidence it makes it a little more believable than yet another nodding donkey.  

Its also a question of degrees. PM's will want loyalty and will, or should, always be aware of who is going to stab them in the back. Few are as paranoid as Johnson, who seems to want to avoid any kind of scrutiny at all costs. This cabinet is remarkable in its lack of identity. It is true that a few might end up in cabinet posts in the future but that is going to be for the damning reason that there is a lack of viable options. Some of them, like Patel, should never have got another chance after the Israel debacle.

If you want to go to another extreme Blair's first cabinet was remarkable for the number of characters present, the different views and some real ability. I would point out that that 'colour' had largely disappeared by the end of his time as PM, but in the early days the future seemed so much brighter.

Strong leaders tolerate strong characters in their court. Johnson is not a strong leader.

Yes, I agree if Cummings can get off Twitter and substantiate his tittle-tattle it may advance his cause.

You say strong leaders tolerate strong characters in their court - I'm unsure if they qualify as 'strong characters', but the ones who are most likely to betray Johnson to advance their own cause (Gove, Raab, Sunak) are all in his own cabinet. I agree that there's little ability in cabinet, but this is symptomatic of the (in my view) very low standard of MPs that currently exist - the Labour Party, currently, is even worse in this regard than the Tory Party.

Blair's first cabinet could have had whatever he fancied in it. He was untouchable for those first years in office. More chance of the Queen getting arrested than one of his fellow MPs trying to oust him. I agree that it had a range of different views contained within, but that was mainly down to the intriguing situation Labour was in at the time with its MPs being a mix of 'old' Labour and 'new' Labour and Blair trying to stitch it together.

[Duty281]

Oh, and Duty 281 even though I have an Honours Degree in Politics I am still really grateful to you for taking the time to explain the concept of Collective Responsibility In Cabinet to me. Much appreciated.

No problem.

[lostinwales]

Its a question of which set of bullsh!tters you believe and when. If Cummings can corroborate his statements with actual evidence it makes it a little more believable than yet another nodding donkey.  

Its also a question of degrees. PM's will want loyalty and will, or should, always be aware of who is going to stab them in the back. Few are as paranoid as Johnson, who seems to want to avoid any kind of scrutiny at all costs. This cabinet is remarkable in its lack of identity. It is true that a few might end up in cabinet posts in the future but that is going to be for the damning reason that there is a lack of viable options. Some of them, like Patel, should never have got another chance after the Israel debacle.

If you want to go to another extreme Blair's first cabinet was remarkable for the number of characters present, the different views and some real ability. I would point out that that 'colour' had largely disappeared by the end of his time as PM, but in the early days the future seemed so much brighter.

Strong leaders tolerate strong characters in their court. Johnson is not a strong leader.

Yes, I agree if Cummings can get off Twitter and substantiate his tittle-tattle it may advance his cause.

You say strong leaders tolerate strong characters in their court - I'm unsure if they qualify as 'strong characters', but the ones who are most likely to betray Johnson to advance their own cause (Gove, Raab, Sunak) are all in his own cabinet. I agree that there's little ability in cabinet, but this is symptomatic of the (in my view) very low standard of MPs that currently exist - the Labour Party, currently, is even worse in this regard than the Tory Party.

Blair's first cabinet could have had whatever he fancied in it. He was untouchable for those first years in office. More chance of the Queen getting arrested than one of his fellow MPs trying to oust him. I agree that it had a range of different views contained within, but that was mainly down to the intriguing situation Labour was in at the time with its MPs being a mix of 'old' Labour and 'new' Labour and Blair trying to stitch it together.

Quite a shocking level of agreement. Interesting names. Gove and Sunak have ability. Raab comes across as an idiot. Gove has the ear of Murdoch (or the other way around) but everybody else hates him and whatever scandals exist around the breakup of his marriage to Vine must put future ambitions on hold. So that leaves you with Sunak. Outside of the cabinet you have Hunt who was defeated by Johnson last time but has been using his knowledge of the health portfolio to up his standing since then.

[BamBam]

Bojo got rid of those who he thought were a threat. Hunt lost his role in cabinet, he quickly got rid of Javid before his recent return.

Those who refused to bow at the altar of Brexit were also gone - Stewart, Gauke, Grieve etc were far more intelligent than most of the idiots we see rolled out to do the morning TV rounds. Every time I see the likes of Jenrick, Whately, Williamson, Dowden, Coffey etc representing the government I despair

[lostinwales]

Bojo got rid of those who he thought were a threat. Hunt lost his role in cabinet, he quickly got rid of Javid before his recent return.

Those who refused to bow at the altar of Brexit were also gone - Stewart, Gauke, Grieve etc were far more intelligent than most of the idiots we see rolled out to do the morning TV rounds. Every time I see the likes of Jenrick, Whately, Williamson, Dowden, Coffey etc representing the government I despair

Coffey has a STEM PhD would you believe. A very rare beast in politics. Not a great deal of evidence it counts for much. The others are a depressing bunch. Whately seems vacant except for when there are expenses to be claimed. Williamson shouldn't be there and neither should Jenrick with his 'special' help for poor boroughs (or moderately wealthy boroughs that vote Conservative).

[Duty281]

Hunt wasn't removed by Johnson. After Johnson comfortably defeated him in the leadership election (66%-34%), Hunt was offered a cabinet role (defence) by Johnson but he turned it down and has been on the backbenches since.

Gauke and Grieve both political lightweights, hyped up to something more by those who opposed Brexit. I like Stewart, though I don't often agree with him, but he's unlikely to be leadership material and has since left politics of his own accord.

[BamBam]

Well I sure am glad these political heavyweights in place now supported Brexit, where would we be without them

[Duty281]

That Gauke and Grieve are both political lightweights does not preclude other Tory MPs from being lightweights. It's not a binary situation.

[Big]

To be fair to Bojo, he is a political heavyweight in the sense that he can get people voting for him and listening to what he says (like Gove, I guess it helps if you are a former journalist and your former employees are happy to give column inches to one of their own). However, that doesn't detract from the fact that he is not competent, regularly lies, and is a firm believer in helping out your mates/donors. A certain amount of charisma (even if it is a form of charisma that is utterly alien to me) can get you a fair way in politics. However, much like teflon-Tony before him, bulletproof-Boris will eventually find there is a limit to what you can get away with. It's no great surprise that Londoners, who had already had a few years to get bored of him, are much less likely to vote Conservative now.

[jimbopip]

I almost feel guilty about posting this comment since there seems no end to the opportunities this government gives us to castigate them for their incompetence; it almost feels like bayonetting the wounded after the shooting has stopped. Almost, but not quite. (Not Covid related but the totally surreal sight of Kwasi Karteng on Sky using the "It was all to complicated for a normal person to understand" excuse in relation to the NI Protocol screwup and when he said no-one could have foreseen how badly it would have turned out Kay Burley pointed out that THREE former PM's had warned that that was exactly how it would turn out, he then said "Yes but they couldn't guarantee that it would turn out like it did." What the absolute FECC!!

However, the Ping-self isolate fiasco....

When the Cabinet met and agreed to lift all Public Health restrictions and call it Freedom Day, and agreed that the inevitable rise in infections would be acceptable as it would only lead to a smallish number of hospitalisations and an even smaller number of deaths did no-one in the room say, "Yes but increased infections will lead to a huge increase in people being pinged! Shouldn't we have a contingency plan in place?"
What level of incompetence did it take not to foresee that? Or, like the NI Protocol foresee it but decide to carry on regardless?

[lostinwales]

I almost feel guilty about posting this comment since there seems no end to the opportunities this government gives us to castigate them for their incompetence; it almost feels like bayonetting the wounded after the shooting has stopped. Almost, but not quite. (Not Covid related but the totally surreal sight of Kwasi Karteng on Sky using the "It was all to complicated for a normal person to understand" excuse in relation to the NI Protocol screwup and when he said no-one could have foreseen how badly it would have turned out Kay Burley pointed out that THREE former PM's had warned that that was exactly how it would turn out, he then said "Yes but they couldn't guarantee that it would turn out like it did." What the absolute FECC!!

However, the Ping-self isolate fiasco....

When the Cabinet met and agreed to lift all Public Health restrictions and call it Freedom Day, and agreed that the inevitable rise in infections would be acceptable as it would only lead to a smallish number of hospitalisations and an even smaller number of deaths did no-one in the room say, "Yes but increased infections will lead to a huge increase in people being pinged! Shouldn't we have a contingency plan in place?"  
What level of incompetence did it take not to foresee that? Or, like the NI Protocol foresee it but decide to carry on regardless?

I know its all sweeping statements but Johnson appears to hate any kind of scrutiny. Having people question sh!t is obviously a good way of making it fit for purpose before unleashing it on the world, and he (and by extension his government) just don't do this. As a consequence they are always reacting to events that could (or were) predicted ahead of time.

[jimbopip]

I always make sure my sh1t is fit for purpose before unleashing it on the world.

[BamBam]

He’s probably loving being able to blame COVID for all the problems caused by Brexit. Pingdemic is a much better headline for him than Brexit goes tits up

[jimbopip]

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/government-accused-of-cover-up-after-ruling-out-search-of-matt-hancock-s-private-emails/ar-AAMtblY?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531

So ministers in PPE contacts scandal used private email accounts to discuss contracts BUT government refuses to allow scrutiny of those email accounts.

[lostinwales]

I always make sure my sh1t is fit for purpose before unleashing it on the world.

A balanced diet with lots of roughage is always important.

[lostinwales]

He’s probably loving being able to blame COVID for all the problems caused by Brexit. Pingdemic is a much better headline for him than Brexit goes tits up

Stupid isn't it. Let's blame problems on the track and trace and not the virus. I saw a graph today showing hospital admissions vs infections for the last few months and the curve is the same shape. I strongly suspect that the proportion of admissions to infections is a long way down from where it was, but we are heading for very dangerous waters and the government's response is to close eyes, stick fingers in ears and start chanting la la la...

[Pr4wn]

I hate the word "pingdemic". It suggest that the app is the problem.

[jimbopip]

Reminds me of the time Johnson was visiting a school and one of the lids asked him what was the reason for the exams fiasco the previous year. The Fat Adulterer didn't even blink before saying, "A mutant algorithm!" As far as my mind can work out algorithms do not mutate, they simply carry out the task they were programmed to do. The teacher in me hates seeing anyone in any classroom anywhere telling kids porkies and passing it off as truth.

[doctor_grey]

Just received and turned down a request to help out in a couple of southern states where the unvaccinated have overwhelmed medical facilities and staff due to the Delta variant.  They are starting to go through down there what all the rest of us went through a year ago with infrastructure and staff not able to cope with the numbers.   And staff is getting burned out already.  We went through almost six months of the hyper levels of work under the severe Covid conditions so I can only imagine what will happen if they don't receive assistance.  So different from my area where my main hospital has only 13 Covid patients (as of yesterday) with only one on a ventilator and the hospital across the road from our club's pitch has only three Covid patients total, with none serious.    

This was a hard decision.  On one hand, the main reason I enjoy medicine is to help people in difficult situations with difficult problems.  I really enjoy the orthopaedic work because putting people back together is a great feeling but the A&E with real life pressure is where I am at my best.  For one of the few times in my life I found myself unable to sympathize with almost anyone involved.  Putting this down in writing, excluding all the mental back and forth (yes, I know that is a very short trip), as well as discussions with my family, because I think the rights and wrongs of this are vague.  And I think this will happen again.  

And just for the record, this is my first full weekend off since the start.  And the weather is perfect for Rugby.

[lostinwales]

Just received and turned down a request to help out in a couple of southern states where the unvaccinated have overwhelmed medical facilities and staff due to the Delta variant.  They are starting to go through down there what all the rest of us went through a year ago with infrastructure and staff not able to cope with the numbers.   And staff is getting burned out already.  We went through almost six months of the hyper levels of work under the severe Covid conditions so I can only imagine what will happen if they don't receive assistance.  So different from my area where my main hospital has only 13 Covid patients (as of yesterday) with only one on a ventilator and the hospital across the road from our club's pitch has only three Covid patients total.    

This was a hard decision.  On one hand, the main reason I enjoy medicine is to help people in difficult situations with difficult problems.  I really enjoy the orthopaedic work because putting people back together is a great feeling but the A&E with real life pressure is where I am at my best.  For one of the few times in my life I found myself unable to sympathize with almost anyone involved.  Putting this down in writing, excluding all the mental back and forth (yes, I know that is a very short trip), as well as discussions with my family, because I think the rights and wrongs of this are vague.  And I think this will happen again.  

And just for the record, this is my first full weekend off since the start.  And the weather is perfect for Rugby.

I always think of the sailing analogy. One hand for the ship and one hand for yourself. If you break you are no use to anybody.

[doctor_grey]

Just received and turned down a request to help out in a couple of southern states where the unvaccinated have overwhelmed medical facilities and staff due to the Delta variant.  They are starting to go through down there what all the rest of us went through a year ago with infrastructure and staff not able to cope with the numbers.   And staff is getting burned out already.  We went through almost six months of the hyper levels of work under the severe Covid conditions so I can only imagine what will happen if they don't receive assistance.  So different from my area where my main hospital has only 13 Covid patients (as of yesterday) with only one on a ventilator and the hospital across the road from our club's pitch has only three Covid patients total.    

This was a hard decision.  On one hand, the main reason I enjoy medicine is to help people in difficult situations with difficult problems.  I really enjoy the orthopaedic work because putting people back together is a great feeling but the A&E with real life pressure is where I am at my best.  For one of the few times in my life I found myself unable to sympathize with almost anyone involved.  Putting this down in writing, excluding all the mental back and forth (yes, I know that is a very short trip), as well as discussions with my family, because I think the rights and wrongs of this are vague.  And I think this will happen again.  

And just for the record, this is my first full weekend off since the start.  And the weather is perfect for Rugby.

I always think of the sailing analogy. One hand for the ship and one hand for yourself. If you break you are no use to anybody.

Thanks for that!  I like the analogy.  You remind me of something my grandfather told me when I was young about even in the worst storm always keeping a firm hand on the tiller.  I think perhaps he wanted to keep is other hand free for his brandy, but maybe I am mixing messages.  It is time for a little R&R, and regular life, even if just for a bit.

I still find it somehow incomprehensible that people would refuse the vaccine and that the medical organisations and government bodies were caught out unprepared.  It seems so much like self-inflicted wounds.

[lostinwales]

I wish I wish there was some foresight amongst the powers that be.

My youngest son is 16 so he (just like every other 16 and 17 yr old) got a letter saying he can get a vaccination, but to get it he just had to turn up at the closest centre. No way as such of booking an appointment.

We have good reasons for wanting him vaccinated so off I go with him this morning thinking there will be a bit of a queue and we'll be done in an hour, hour and a half.

Nope. 3.5 hrs...

Centre didn't know or anticipate the huge number of walk ins that letter generated. No extra staff. I don't blame them at all (well maybe I feel a little grumpy about the guy who was processing the paperwork and seemed to do everyone except the U18's, then started on the U18's) but they were set up badly. Who could possibly guess that are U18's might actually want to get vaccinated when they are allowed.

[doctor_grey]

Concerned again, especially as we had a summer or real promise here.  Last week my hospital had only a dozen patients in the Covid-19 ward and no one on a ventilator.  As of Friday we were up to 26 patients with 5 on a ventilator.  All except one was not vaccinated, and the vaccinated patient was not intubated.  All 26 patients had the so-called Delta Variant.  Not sure the numbers but I think about half the patients were from outside the area - wisely, the state of NJ wants to disperse Covid-19 patients somewhat so no hospital gets overloaded in the event of a real surge.   My county has 76% of all people 12 and up fully vaccinated.  

NJ is mostly fully open requiring masks in certain areas only:  Health care of any kind, trains, planes/airports, and the like.  As expected, consensus is the surge is due to unvaccinated people combined with the Delta Variant.  

We are playing Rugby again too, season kicks off this afternoon, but we are requiring all players to be vaccinated.  Played in a pre-season regional tournament last weekend and all players and coaches had to file vaccination records in advance.  From what I hear so far no one has contracted Covid-19.

[Pr4wn]

Even worse in other areas of the US, apparently. I'm hearing Texas and Florida in particular are both in a very sorry state with 50% or less of adults vaccinated.

[doctor_grey]

It always amazes me how different Americans are across the country. Almost as if they are different countries, The northeast up through New England lead the country in % vaccinated. With exceptions where masks are mandated (and rightly so), life is more or less returning to normal. Or at least semi-normal. I don't think I could live here outside the northeast.

The south and southeast have this maniacal phobia of anything from outside. And that includes the vaccines. It's almost like a weird third world mentality. They are still replaying the election, and given Trump's mismanagement of Covid-19, a lot of their opposition is wrapped up in their support for him.

[jimbopip]

lost in Wales, a couple of days ago Mrspip and myself drove past our local vaccination centre and were amazed to see a queue of teenagers snaking round the block. Obviously it was the same "send letters out to lots of people and be shocked when most of them turn up for a jab" fecc up as you encountered. I'm glad we're getting jabs into arms but when you think how rigorously they managed the queues earlier in the year this does smack of incompetence.

Doc, apparently in the US there is a blue/red divide as far as states' vaccine take up goes. Democrat Senators/Congressmen(women) = high take up, Republican Senators/Congressperson OR high percentage of Born Again Bigots Christians = very low take up. Go figure! As they say. When they're not being intubated.

[WELL-PAST-IT]

The "I" newspapr reported recently the BJ will accept 50,000 UK deaths a year from Covid before bringing back restrictions:

"A cost-benefit analysis will have set the acceptable level of Covid-19 deaths before restrictions are reintroduced at around 1,000 deaths a week, two Government advisers have told i.

Downing Street has denied it has set any “acceptable level” of Covid deaths but one adviser, who has been close to the Government since coronavirus struck 18 months ago, told i that Prime Minister Boris Johnson had privately accepted that there would be at least a further 30,000 deaths in the UK over the next year, and that the Prime Minister would “only consider imposing further restrictions if that figure looked like it could rise above 50,000”."

I have no idea what shade of red or blue "I" supports, but to me that is a very high figure to accept before doing something about it. Of course by the time it has reached that sort of figure it is starting to spiral out of control again and it will mean more deaths and much tougher restrictions.

What is the value of a human life, NZ gets one case and goes into lockdown, Australia get a few cases and lockdown entire states. It is pretty obvious that they value human life a damn sight more than this government.

Full Report Here

[doctor_grey]

So, here we are at the end of the year and Covid is back, seemingly with a flourish. The body count is going back up along with hospitalisations. Not just at home or in North America, but globally. Governments everywhere, but certainly like the UK and USA, are dithering between more rigid actions and the desire to get the economies moving and avoiding the worst downturn since the 1930s. Also there is a real need to keep people somewhat happy to keep society from going off the rails after 18 month of Covid restrictions. There is a terrible absence of leadership by trying to accommodate all sides which can never work and changing the rules constantly simply makes things worse. Trying to be popular during a pandemic is a recipe for failure.

Clearly much of the increase in cases is due to the relaxed restrictions. Where we had tight restrictions a year ago, people now, though most are vaccinated, are not wearing masks at sports events, on the tube, in pubs, at concerts, and so on. The same in New Jersey and in UK. We now see Rugby matches being cancelled or postponed. In the NFL my latest update has 74 players testing positive, many were vaccinated. At the local hospitals I use as a yardstick, my large hospital a month ago had case numbers in the teens are now back above 30, the mid-size regional hospital near my house was at 5 or 6 a month ago and now is in the 20s.

Not sure where it is gong from here. What I do know is there is an unprecedented amount of medical and pharmacological research under way. And I think the vaccines and the few treatment medications we have seen are only the tip of the iceberg. The only question is when.

[Duty281]

Covid-19 deaths week-by-week in the UK have remained roughly the same since September, which means it's about 75% fewer than this time last year.

Patients in hospital with Covid-19 are just below 8,000, which has remained roughly stable for the past three weeks, and represents a decline from the 9-9.6k patients that were in hospital with Covid in late October/early November. Also worth saying that the numbers this time last year were just over 18k.

There's no need for further restrictions, especially as the latest variant appears to be much milder and we're approaching a point (or have already reached the point) where the most vulnerable are triple-jabbed, but I think another lockdown is just around the corner - a poll yesterday had public support for another lockdown at 51% with 32% in opposition.

[lostinwales]

The suggestion that the latest variant is mild is a gamble. I hope you are right but all we know for sure is that it is significantly more infectious than we have seen before. I also appreciate that, danger or no, Johnson is attempting to use the rise of omicron as a distraction from his personal problems and people just don't trust him anymore, which dilutes any message he's trying to give on this.

That it is so infectious, and as a consequence those with prior infections and vaccinations are catching it is one reason why it has been classified as mild as these people have some resistance. The other issue is the lag between infections, hospitalizations and deaths. We are still at that first stage given this variant was unknown in the UK a couple of weeks ago. We don't know how its going to play out yet.

Every single f*cking time a new variant has come in people have downplayed its importance and then a few weeks later the hospitals are full and people are dying.

[Derbymanc]

the issue for me is they're trying to state it's extremely dangerous with the infection rate but refusing to follow how it played out last time.

I know people that are ignoring it all because 'if it was that bad we'd be in lockdown'.

Sadly Bojo is playing to the audience so for the minute we're knackered.

Interesting read
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/omicron-tedros-adhanom-ghebreyesus-who-data-people-b1976071.html

[Duty281]

The suggestion that the latest variant is mild is a gamble. I hope you are right but all we know for sure is that it is significantly more infectious than we have seen before. I also appreciate that, danger or no, Johnson is attempting to use the rise of omicron as a distraction from his personal problems and people just don't trust him anymore, which dilutes any message he's trying to give on this.

That it is so infectious, and as a consequence those with prior infections and vaccinations are catching it is one reason why it has been classified as mild as these people have some resistance. The other issue is the lag between infections, hospitalizations and deaths. We are still at that first stage given this variant was unknown in the UK a couple of weeks ago. We don't know how its going to play out yet.

Every single f*cking time a new variant has come in people have downplayed its importance and then a few weeks later the hospitals are full and people are dying.

We don't know that for sure. While this is likely, the information on its infectivity is still in its early stages. The number of cases announced per day in the UK is about double what it was this time last year, but the number of tests being conducted at the same comparative stage is about a fourfold increase.

I imagine there will be an increase in hospitalisations and deaths as the result of this variant, but those numbers will still remain quite a bit below where they were this time last year, which is why there is no requirement for a lockdown.

[lostinwales]

Numbers going into hospital may be lower but so is capacity.

I don't think the infectivity of the new variant is up for debate given the rise in infection rates (also allowing for those not being tested). But as you implied we'll only really know in hindsight

[Duty281]

The number of people in hospital with Covid peaked at 39.2k in the middle of January this year (can the NHS still handle such numbers?), current numbers are 7.6k.

If numbers followed a similar trajectory as last year, you'd expect hospital numbers to peak for this phase at around 16-17k in January, which I'd imagine the NHS could handle. The fact that most of the most vulnerable have been triple-jabbed may mean numbers don't actually reach as high as 16-17k; there again if the variant turns out to be especially dangerous the numbers could exceed that 17k figure (this doesn't seem likely, however).

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