URC Round 10

First topic message reminder :

Round 10 (ish) is here and the last round before the European break so important for teams who may not have played in a few weeks to get out there if they can.

All matches on Premier Sports, URC TV and Supersport amd all times UK/Ireland  time zone.

Saturday 8th January 2021

Edinburgh v Cardiff - The DAM Health Stadium, Edinburgh – KO 15.00- BBC Wales

Glasgow Warriors v Ospreys- Scotstoun Stadium, Glasgow – KO 17.15- S4C

Munster v Ulster- Thomond Park Stadium, Limerick – KO 19.35 - RTÉ 2

Scarlets v Dragons- Parc y Scarlets, Llanelli – KO 19.35

The rest of this round of games involve South African teams and are currently scheduled to be played in late February.

Welshmushroom wrote:Looking at the redrafted schedule for the rest of the season South Africa sides must be happy.  

Looks like they will now have week in week out fixtures against teams (assuming no more Covid cancellations happen which they might).

It's kind of turned my predictions around as now essentially they will be playing a lot of those sides during periods when those internationals will be away, greatly increasing their odds of wins.

Could end up with 2-3 making the top 8 in the end.  Could be a disaster for the home nations given some of them will be losing out on HC rugby next year.

I am not convinced by the Bulls.  Jake White seems to have the same problems as he had with Monpellier.  He doesn't seem to understand that most of the top teams know how to deal with a very big pack.

I think Zebre and Dragons are out of the playoffs.  Unless Bulls change I'm not sure they will pick up enough away wins.  After that I would see Sharks joining the top 5 with everone else fighting it out for the last two spots with anything above 2.5 pts per game a good return.

Currently the table is tight if you look at points per game for the top 8

1. Leinster 4.14 
2. Edinburgh 4.13 - have played all 4 bottom teams but none of the other top 5

3. Munster 3.42
4. Ulster 3.25
5. Glasgow 3.25 played Uls, Shark, Os, Len, 

6. Scarlets 2.66
7. Benetton 2.63
8. Connacht 2.50 - played Mun x2, Uls, Len (half their games)
9. Ospreys 2.44
10. Cardiff 2.33
11 Lions 2.22 (2.5) - no home games played, played Scar, Glas, Uls

(If they win their next game No BP)
12. Sharks 1.8 (2.17) - played Mun, Glas, Os, Bull
13. Stromers 1.4 (1.83) - Mun, Edin, 
14. Dragons 1.29
15. Bulls - 1.00 (1.55 - no home games, have played Len, Edin, Sharks already (my view the strong teams currently)

16. Zebre - 0.17

Bulls & Lions only have 4 away games left to play.  9 Games at home.  

Sharks have 5 away games and 8 games at Home. Stormers have 5 away games and 8 home games.

The main reason I think they will now make a charge into the playoffs spots is because the free European weekends they had off (leaving them disjointed) now means they actually have a fixture list with regular matches.  And on top of this they now also face sides that have players away for the 6 Nations.

That's going to be bad news for everyone else in the league.  I'd say its particularly bad news for the Welsh sides who can all pretty much forget about making the top 8 in the league.  If South African sides win all their home matches its likely going to end up like this:-

Lions - 47 pts
Stomers - 43 pts
Sharks - 41 pts
Bulls - 41 pts

Thats assuming they only win with 4 points and get zero losing bonus points and lose all their home matches.

Probably not an issue Edinburgh as they have 3 home games still so should top those numbers.  Leinster also won't have a problem.  Ulster should still squeeze past that as well with 4 home games.

Might start getting a bit tight for Glasgow and Munster.  And well everyone else can forget it at that point as they will have zero chance of making the top 8.  

Granted that is assuming S.Africa sides can even play at home (assuming they dont get told to play them in Italy) and that they can win all of those home matches.  Odds will be helped by weakened opposition.  If it does happen I know my early season predictions will have gone to hell as I didn't think given the original fixture lists to many south african sides would make the playoffs.  Could see all 4 of them making it now.

Might be ambitious giving the SA teams all home wins as they play each other twice (totalling 6 games) and have only played one of those games. It should eliminate 8 pts if you assume each will win home games and lose away games. Fair point made though

Leinster have far too much and will finish first again you would think. Edinburgh can lose more than it wins in its remaining games and probably stay in the top 8 so should be fine. Ulster, Munster and Glasgow need to find 6 wins from the remaining 10/11 games and should be favourites for that.

That leaves 3 spots. I can see at least one of Scarlets, Ospreys or Connacht succeeding.

Scarlets seem a bit under the radar and hard to tell where they are.  Thought Ospreys were ahead but the last two weeks have shown they aren't back yet.

They have played Munster, Leinster and Edinburgh already.  They lost all three. It's hard to say who is better them or Ospreys but feel one of them will make the playoffs.

Their next 5 games either breaks them or makes them most likely the breaks as I can see them losing all them as Glasgow seconds better than Scarlets seconds and Connacht and Ulster will have 75% of their first team.  They should get 4/5 in their last games.
Next 5
Ulster away
Connacht home
Glasgow home
Sharks away
Bulls away.

Ulster will have 75% of their team, you sure?

Currently 10, arguably 11, of the first XV injured.
Only one of the five centres fit and he is 5th of five.

What do we think pts will be for top 4 and top 8.

3.5pts per game will be 56pts
3 pts per game will be 48 points
2.5 pts per game is 40 points

Of the 54 games played there have been 19 LBPs (35%) and 38 TBPs (70%) which means on average each game played is going to be worth 5pts divided between the two teams generally 5-0 or 4-1

I think top 4 need to be looking at at least 50 but 6-8 could be around 35-40

Leinster's last 5 games are big games especially as they will have eyes on Europe while all but Edinburgh will probably be out.  It's after the 6 nations so players rested or injured.  So all is not lost for the chasing pack.
Connacht away
Munster home
Sharks away
Stromers away
Edinburgh home

geoff999rugby wrote:Ulster will have 75% of their team, you sure?

Currently 10, arguably 11, of the first XV injured.
Only one of the five centres fit and he is 5th of five.

Of those fit (Scarlets have their own injury worries) the majority of Ulster, Munster and Connacht will still be at home during the 6 nations while Scarlets usually provide nearly as many as Leinster, Glasgow and Bennetton.

Ulster team the week before 6 nations will be looking to get Farrell to notice a few players while Scarlets players will be in Wales camp.  Despite Ulster's loss at the weekend they are a better team than Munster and expect them to make hay in the 3 Welsh games.

Brendan wrote:

geoff999rugby wrote:Ulster will have 75% of their team, you sure?

Currently 10, arguably 11, of the first XV injured.
Only one of the five centres fit and he is 5th of five.

Of those fit (Scarlets have their own injury worries) the majority of Ulster, Munster and Connacht will still be at home during the 6 nations while Scarlets usually provide nearly as many as Leinster, Glasgow and Bennetton.

Ulster team the week before 6 nations will be looking to get Farrell to notice a few players while Scarlets players will be in Wales camp.  Despite Ulster's loss at the weekend they are a better team than Munster and expect them to make hay in the 3 Welsh games.

Moving the goal posts there.
You said Ulster will have 75% of their team available - they wont.
Especially when you take into account 2 of the fit 4 will definitely be Ireland - Herring and Timoney, and Burns might be.

Whether or not they are still a better side is a different question.
Centre could be a real issue - we played an academy wing at 13 against Munster and it showed

My guess is 40-45 points will secure a top 8 spot. I can see a see a situation where the 6-10 placed sides are awfully close in terms of points. Think some sides will miss out by very small margins.