Premiership Run-in

First topic message reminder :

I thought it would be useful to have a thread to discuss how fans are feeling about their club’s final few games of the season and their chances of qualifying for the playoffs or Champions Cup.

For Quins, I think we are currently tracking ahead of where we would need to be to finish in fourth, and four points from the last four games should do it. A home semi final is probably beyond us, barring a dramatic drop in Saracens’ form, and many fans would actually prefer to go to Welford Road than the Stone X.

The Run in:
No question it’s a tough run in: Tigers at home, Saints away, Gloucester at the Big Stoop and Exeter at Sandy Park. On form, that could easily be three losses… but we ran Tigers close at Welford Road in the autumn, and we’ve a pretty decent recent record against Saints and Gloucester and in our games over the road.

If Quins had to go to Sandy Park needing a win, I’d be very nervous, but I don’t think it will come to that. My guess would be narrow losses but bonus points in the first two, a win against Glaws, and a thumping by Exeter as Quins rest players ahead of the semi.

Reasons to be fearful:
- Tough run in
- An injury list that would have crippled us in the past: Kenningham, Green, Lamb out long term, doubts over Lewies, Allan, David and both Chisholms
- Likely to have to beat both Saracens and Tigers if we want to retain the title
- Danny Care’s unquenchable thirst for yellow cards

Reasons to be cheerful:
- For every injury we have, we seem to have a fine replacement coming through. Will Evans is nearly ready to return to first team action, Huw Jones looks better at fullback than at centre, Tizard, Hammond and Jurevicius have bolstered our locking ranks, Will Edwards is a better backup to Smith than we could have hoped for, Beard gives cover from 13-15
- Our England players are back and in good form. Marchant in particular seems to have raised his game a notch.
- Strength in depth in the pack, especially with Wilco Louw returning to fitness
- The closer we get to the end of the season, the better the conditions suit Quins’ style of play
- It’s Quins. A deficit on the scoreboard, however large, is just a bunch of tries we haven’t scored yet. We might run out of time, but we won’t run out of ideas or endeavour.

Current form is also a consideration and the only side to have won their last 5 games is Wasps.
Its no coincidence it comes at a time when we finally have had a full squad to pick from.
Every side has injuries but this season has been horrendous particularly because our best players were all out over the first part of the season.
The likes of Alfie & Jack are just starting to hit their straps.
Unfortunately I think its too late to mount a top 4 challenge, I'm just glad to see them back playing!

Doc - LI's match against Warriors is PRC not Prem - they only have 2 matches remaining with a bye on the last week ...

Heaf wrote:Doc - LI's match against Warriors is PRC not Prem - they only have 2 matches remaining with a bye on the last week ...

I suppose if I actually looked at the Table in a little more detail I would have noticed LI played 22 matches already!  That certainly changes the dynamic.  

WELL-PAST-IT wrote:yappysnap, you are correct that Saints max is 78 points, but a win and 2 BPs only gives you 78 points as well. Quins currently have a 10 points better points difference than Saints, but if Saints win all three as they would need to, that is likely to be reversed, is Quins only have one win and two close defeats.

I wouldn't lose sleep over it though, I can only dream of Saints taking all 15 available points from those remaining fixtures. Sarries away is a tough fixture to win never mind take a bonus point.

Let's not forget Saints terrific record (sic) against Quins as well.