Rest of the World

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Blimey...just flicked back to see Australia making a meal of chasing 34 to win. Warner another fail (is that a strong hint that his time is all but done ?)

But also Smith Khawaja and Head gone...29/4 and extras has made 14 of them !

Only need five more so no problem...but SA might wonder what might have been if they'd been able to produce a bit more resistance in that awful second innings.

Supports kingraf's pitch assessment , I guess

dummy_half wrote:

Duty281 wrote:...

SL have a couple of months to shake this hammering off before they visit NZ in a key three match ODI series - SL will need to win at least two of the three to have any chance of qualifying directly for the World Cup. It's currently very well poised in the Super League:

8th: West Indies, 88 points, no more games left.
9th: Sri Lanka, 77 points, three games v NZ away in March, maximum potential 107 points.
10th: Ireland, 68 points, three games v Bangladesh at home in May, maximum potential 98 points.
11th: South Africa, 59 points, three games v England at home in January, two games v the Dutch at home in March/April, maximum potential 109 points.

8th is the final direct qualifying spot for the World Cup. 9th and lower will have to go through the Qualifier event, where ten teams will battle for the final two spots.

Wouldn't like to call who gets 8th from here! If Ireland managed to take 8th spot, then at least one of the West Indies/Sri Lanka/South Africa trio would be missing at the World Cup, which would be quite incredible.

It's technically in South Africa's hands, if they win all five no one can stop them, but it's very unlikely they'll beat England 3-0 later this month.

Very interesting - I actually wouldn't rule WI out, although it's probably a less than 25% chance of their current position being enough.
South Africa would be expected to beat Netherlands twice, getting to 79, but would then need one win or two no results in 3 matches against England, which is possible but by no means a certainty. Probably though the most likely to go through - that one extra point may well prove significant.
Don't see SL beating NZ twice in NZ, although one win and a no result would also be enough and is perhaps as likely.
Ireland v Bangladesh in Ireland probably favours the home side, but will likely be competitive - can see that being a 2-1 series either way, with 2 wind for Ireland putting them to 88 points and probably a better run rate (would need to have 2 tight wins and one absolute shellacking to hurt the run rate enough).

So, if anyone wants to put money on this, go for entirely the opposite of my quantified predictions below:
South Africa - 55% likelihood of qualification
Ireland -  20%
West Indies - 20%
Sri Lanka 5%

I think Ireland can get two wins over Bangladesh. Ireland's recent ODI record has been pretty good - they managed an ODI series win in the Caribbean not too long ago, plus a drawn series with South Africa and they beat England in one of three games. Ireland did lose 0-3 at home to NZ in their most recent ODI series, but it was a strange one as Ireland were in a winning position in all three games and couldn't close any of them out. Winning two out of three against Bangladesh, who may be lacking motivation, is very plausible. Even all three isn't out of the question. But with Ireland playing their series later than Sri Lanka and South Africa, how they cope with the pressure will be interesting.

Sri Lanka are a very capable ODI team...at home, where they recently beat Australia 3-2. Away from home to call them 'hopeless' would be kind. Their last ODI series win away was in 2016 away to Ireland; their last ODI series win away to a senior nation was versus England in 2014. And of the last 15 ODIs Sri Lanka have played v NZ in NZ, they've managed a grand total of three wins. So you're probably right to put them down at 5%!

Barring weather, South Africa should be assured of two wins and 20 points v the Dutch (But they shouldn't write the Dutch off completely after the last T20 World Cup!), but they'll still need to find one win v England or it's curtains. South Africa rarely lose ODI series to nil - in fact, the last time it happened was v England in 2008, when they lost four out of five and one was rained off. And they will have a full strength team, I think, as the SA20 competition is taking a break for the duration of the ODI series. Though England are also going in very strong, with Archer and Stone returning.

Whatever happens it's good to see some bilateral ODIs having a deeper meaning and tension attached to them. A shame the ODI Super League is being scrapped after this iteration. Qualification for the 2027 World Cup (expanded to 14 teams from 10) will just see South Africa + Zimbabwe qualify automatically as hosts, joined by the other top eight ranked teams also qualifying automatically.

Sarfaraz khan averages 80+ in Ranji and that's the highest First Class average after Bradman. And he cracked another 100 today......average getting closer to 81
Everyone wants him to play for India.....just cannot figure out how to get him even in the squad of 17

I know the Ranji Trophy is renowned for some high run-scoring*, but that's still a seriously impressive average with a great strike-rate. His century in the current game also came with his team amassing a total of just 293 - Khan was the only one to score above 40 - so he's not just a flat-track bully, clearly.

* https://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/records/batting/most_runs_career.html?id=14934;type=tournament

Look at some of these eye-watering averages for the highest run-scorers in this year's Ranji Trophy. Was quite intrigued to see a player called 'Sachin Baby' high up the list, but as he was born in the 80s I thought it's not a Tendulkar homage. But, actually, it appears it is!

Sachin Baby was born a week after Sachin Tendulkar scored his first FC century at Wankhede stadium. It was at that moment, while watching Tendulkar’s first game on television, his parents thought this name could suit their child without knowing that Sachin Tendulkar would become a cricket legend one day.

https://cricketaddictor.com/cricket/sachin-baby-accidentally-named-after-sachin-tendulkar/

What a story.

Gill from India walloped 200 in a 50 over game against New Zealand

Michael Bracewell batting liking ABdV - but this ground makes Trent Bridge look gigantic!

After having them 130-6 in 29 overs....i.e 220 needed in last 21 overs...India took foot off the pedal
You can't do that in this T20 era of bowling all-rounders all the way down
I remember Sam Curran almost pulled off one against India in an ODI with a 100 coming at No. 8ish
NZ came too close...Bracewell is in form of his life since Pak Tour.

India has a plethora of batsmen and to stand out and make your mark....200s are necessary...Gill and Ishan are both vying for an openers slot to partner Rohit and both have cracked double hundreds.
While Sarfaraz with average 80+ and Prithvi Shaw are knocking on the door with bumper Ranji performances

Ideally they should replace Rohit
They already forced a prolific Dhawan out......and they will force Rohit too out after the worldcup

Iyer has injured himself...means Gill can play in the middle order vs Aus in tests where Iyer would have been the first choice

Bracewell did something similar v Ireland last year, when he came in at 120/5 and propelled his team to the target of 305, including taking 20 off the final over. Magic.

Unlike NZ today, Zimbabwe did manage a last-gasp ODI win when they beat Ireland by scoring four off the last ball.

What were they playing on - a car park ? I've seen Bracewell bat : if he can do that I have to question the "real" value of the runs scored in these games.

(Not meant to disparage the work these fellows did in the context of this match : but I do wonder what it really means for the serious stuff at the next WC. If the pitches are going to be all like this seems to have been , teams might as well pick eight batsman and just slog !)

First innings for Sarfaraz Khan since he got mentioned on here...golden duck.

Oops!

alfie wrote:What were they playing on - a car park ?  I've seen Bracewell bat : if he can do that I have to question the "real" value of the runs scored in these games.

(Not meant to disparage the work these fellows did in the context of this match  : but I do wonder what it really means for the serious stuff at the next WC. If the pitches are going to be all like this seems to have been , teams might as well pick eight batsman and just slog !)

Patta pitches is the answer ( ie Road Strip )
The highest Patta-ness is in pitches in India and Maximum number of Patta pitches are in India
and for top sides like Aus, Eng, Pak 350  would be very much a "chasable" score in this world cup.

Here is  piece of stat that on face value could be matter of pride for India...but quite damning that 7 out of 10 doubles hundreds are by Indians and on Patta pitches of India
Rohit the Patta-King has as many double hundreds as rest of world put together
I would say Guptil's most credible , coming against WI in Dunedin on that list  

India played 4 seamrs and blew away NZ for 108
There is room for seamers on Indian pitches....even on the flat ones with reverse and change of pace cutters
and 1 in 5 games you find a seam friendly pitch and atmospeheric conditions

Kohli falling too often to spin is the only worry for India

NZ has never won an ODI series in India...well that's some stat in 45 years of history

India smacks NZ by 3-0 and rise to No.1 in rankings
At home Ind looks formidable , even with two top stars Iyer and Pant out
has spinners and spin bowling allrounders......Kuldeep is in great rhythm beating every side with his wrist spin, going both ways.
and 1 in 4 games when there is something in the pitch for seamers.....Indd has seamers to exploit it.
BUT
in world cup there will be atleast 3 teams that can be a match.....Eng, Pak and Aus
and when the stage gets big in a K.O ....choke pressure and 1 or 2 odd sub-optimal selections stand up glaringly for Ind

T20 games in Dubai and Sharjah have been...rained off (!) in the past couple of days.

Must be the end times.

Test cricket resumes this month. Obviously the heavyweight match-up of Australia v India, starting on the 9th, takes centre stage, with the Aussies trying to achieve series wins in India and England over the next 5-6 months, as well as become world test champions in between.

But before that Zimbabwe host the West Indies in a two-test series, beginning on the 4th. I'm not sure how eligibility rules work, but Gary Ballance will be playing test cricket for Zimbabwe, five and a half years after winning the last of his 23 test caps for England. Zimbabwe will need him because Williams and Muzarabani are both injured, and Raza and Burl are both playing T20 franchise cricket. The West Indies have named what's pretty close to their strongest squad available, including a recall for Shannon Gabriel.

Test match fever has started building up as Aussies are in India
4 Test matches, between two top sides is a mouth watering prospect but look at the following stats

India in the last 42 home Tests
Won - 34.
Lost - 2.
Drawn - 6.
Australia have won just 1 Test match in India in the last 18 years.

Aus have hired an Ashwin action Impersonator Mahesh Pithiya of Baroda to give them practice in nets
He bowled & got stumped Smith Twice in the nets

Ind's biggest difficulty is how many and which ones of the spinners to play
For Long Jadeja & Ashwin have won tests at home....handsomely and comfortably...and both are allrounders
Then came Axar who on Crumbling pitches has the ability to pick 15 wickets and win a test on his own

and Kuldeep is in the form of his life wrist spinning the ball both ways sharply and decptively and every Kiwi and BD batter struggled to pick him

Ind can play 4 spinners but any captain would struggle to use so much spin at hand.....I think unfortunately Kuldeep may have to sit out.

The other conundrum for India would be if Iyer is not fully fit.......SKY has been brought in and should be first in line in middle order
BUT
Gill the rising star in the media , next in line to replace Kohli , the cricketing superstar with a barrage of double hundred and hundreds in ODIs and T20 and reportedly dating Tendulkar's daughter has media rooting for him and might play ahead of SKY.
And the there is the question of WK......Pant would be missed big time as a batter.....Bharat is a deemed safe WK but mediocre batsman
Ishan is a like for like replacement on paper and IMO, Ind should pick Ishan

Given Ind's record at home and Aus's record in India...won't be surprised if they end up like SA and WI ended up against them in Aus

But I hope they put up a fight and win a Game.

Test cricket for the purists in Bulawayo. West Indies 112/0 after 51 overs, before the rain came.

A slow pitch with consistent low bounce, and the odd one that has grubbered, combined with a bumpy outfield means it has been tough to score heavily. Zimbabwe have barely created a chance with the ball - they had one good LBW shout which I thought was out, but other than that barely an edge or a play and miss has happened.

Chanderpauls the second father & son paid to have a double century in test cricket.

Hanif & Shoaib Mohammed already have what you would think a very rare feat

This Ballance guy seems like a decent prospect for Zimbabwe!

It's been an intriguing test on a slow pitch. After the West Indies piled up 447, with only two batsmen scoring higher than 20, Zimbabwe were on the ropes at 192/7. Then Jason Holder dropped a fairly simple chance off the batting of number nine Mavuta, which would have seen Zimbabwe 198/8 and facing the follow-on and probable defeat.

But, because of the drop, Mavuta and Ballance combined for a 135 run partnership which has taken Zimbabwe to the brink of safety. As noted, Ballance scored an unbeaten century which was integral for his side. Only the second test batsman, after Wessels, to score test centuries for different nations.

Zimbabwe even put in a cheeky declaration towards the end of day four, when they were trailing by 68 runs, trying to spark a West Indies collapse, which hasn't happened (yet?). It also means that Kraigg Brathwaite and Tagenarine Chanderpaul will have batted on all five days of the test - they're only the 11th and 12th batsmen to do this in the entire history of the game, and it's the only time that two players have achieved it in the same test (unsurprisingly).

98 overs left - West Indies lead by 89 with all ten wickets left, though they are a bit fenced in. The draw a heavy favourite, but let's see if Zimbabwe can spark a collapse in the morning session.

Duty281 wrote: .

But, because of the drop, Mavuta and Ballance combined for a 135 run partnership which has taken Zimbabwe to the brink of safety. As noted, Ballance scored an unbeaten century which was integral for his side. Only the second test batsman, after Wessels, to score test centuries for different nations.

.

In the Post WW-II era only 6 players have played for 2 nations.... not counting 3 Indians who by default became Pakistanis upon separation
Of those 6, two have scored hundred and Pataudi senior a 100 for Eng and a 50 for India, lost his peak years in no cricket due to war.

No collapse, but the West Indies have put in what I consider to be a silly declaration, setting Zimbabwe 272 to win from 49 overs.

There were actually 54 overs bowled as the overrate was quick due to the West Indies bowling plenty of spin, including a bizarre spell from Jason Holder who bowled a few overs of off spin. Never seen the like.

It was a draw, Zimbabwe ending up six down. They established a decent platform to perhaps have a punt at the chase, but had a mini-collapse from 61/1 to 83/4 which ended any minor prospect of a win.

A test with a fair few statistical oddities ends with three declarations and no team being bowled out in the duration of the test.

The main event between Australia and India is tomorrow. I hear India have been carefully preparing the pitch to target the Aussie left-handers.

Duty281 wrote:No collapse, but the West Indies have put in what I consider to be a silly declaration, setting Zimbabwe 272 to win from 49 overs.

?

Wasn't able to watch this match so only kept up to date via online detail ; but honest question : why did you call that a "silly" declaration ? Surely no real danger in it and as they took six wickets they weren't that far off getting a result. Seems a bit more "Stokes" than standard Brathwaite but I'd have thought it was rather a good one ?

The series I have been looking forward to for a while starting very shortly...

I agree with Ian Chappell that India start favourites , but Australia are not without a chance if they can adapt to the different conditions they will face. I am not sure I am yet ready to rate this Australian team as highly as some seem to : They have been excellent at home lately , albeit against some disappointing opposition : but I would suggest their touring strength is yet to be proven. The win in Pakistan last year was a good start ; but the drawn series in Sri Lanka underlined some weaknesses. This tour (win lose or draw) will give a better measure , I think...and I am pleased for a start that Cummins seems to be looking to take a positive approach into the series rather than worrying about the alien conditions and past unsuccessful record.

Lots of media chat about the unorthodox pitch preparation but Cummins is pretty much saying "well both teams have to bat on it so that's how it is" - which strikes me as a sensible mindset. If I have a concern about the Australian preparation for this first match (other than the unavoidable "missing" injured bowlers) it is the spin options : is it really wise to be adding another off spinner in the rookie Murphy to the established skills of Lyon - and even Head as a spare ? We will see ...

India have been near-invincible at home for several years ; but I do wonder if they might be a bit more vulnerable this time. No Bumrah ; Kohli hasn't been at his best in Tests for a while ; and they will surely miss Pant in the middle order. Not to say there isn't a lot of talent still there , of course , even if a lot of them are ageing. They may be powerful as ever - their likely spin trio looks deadly - but if Smith and Labuschagne can do their usual stuff they just might feel a bit of pressure back on their own batting line-up.

Guess we will have a better idea in a few hours. Toss might be important and Cummins seems to have a knack of winning them ; so although I am certainly not off to the betting shop , I reckon Australia might perhaps have their best chance of the series in pushing for an upset in this first game.

Well we start with some selection surprises ...

India have gone with S.Yadav instead of Gill despite all the praise the latter was getting pre-game. Three spinners as expected though , Ashwin Jadeja and Axar. Debut for keeper KS Bharat , Shami and Siraj for pace.

But Australia : debut for Murphy as flagged to support Lyon , Cummins and Boland. Handscomb is indeed selected ; but the shock is that Renshaw is also picked and Travis Head left out ! I don't get that one at all  

Cummins no hesitation on batting after winning yet another toss.  Kickoff in twenty minutes...

Instant drama ! After Shami's first over yielded two singles , Siraj has pinned Khawaja lbw with his first ball. Not given out on field but an excellent (and brave !) review saw it hitting leg stump. I thought it might have been umpire's call but stayed very straight and India have first blood...

Blimey ! Shami now knocks out Warner's off stump and it's 2/2 after just 13 balls...

Never mind spinners , these opening pace men are moving the ball and have put Australia right on the back foot from the start. The Smith and Labuschagne show is starting earlier than expected.

Not a great start for Warner's quest to succeed in India...he was totally beaten by that one.

Despite the early pace success , hasn't taken long for the spinners to come on...six overs gone , 25/2 , and Jadeja - and now Axar - are in action.

Jadeja though has come off after just one over and Siraj is back , at the opposite end. Rohit ringing the changes...

Drinks after 13 overs. , no further dramas. Smith & Labuschagne both watchful - as you would be.
Axar continuing one end , pacers sharing the other.

Hmm. Ex-captain's Error Moment : Smith edges Axar...but Kohli drops the chance.

Might be a significant moment. As might this : Last ball of the over rears from a length and beats everything...that was freakish bounce !

Jadeja back now...and Smith looking to get after him , good footwork brings a welcome boundary. 40/2.

Ashwin into the attack and fifty up after 22. Most of those (30) from Labuschagne , who has been sound enough , if a little hesitant against Axar. Already turn and variable bounce so I fancy batting on this is unlikely to get easier as we progress.

Makes this partnership ever more important. Australia need to maximise the advantage of winning the toss.

Think Rohit should bring Siraj on for a short spell.
He's not really been on the money, the skipper. Ashwin came on rather too late for my liking. A pitch with some moisture, Ashwin could have been absolutely lethal. And you would want your best bowler on against the oppositions best batters before they get set. Jadu and Axar are mighty fine bowlers, but you'd have wanted first crack at them from Ashwin. Smith and Labuschagne building up a hugely significant partnership here... India would be disappointed not to get one of them at least before lunch, after that fabulous start from Shami and Siraj!

As for the selections, I am fine with Suryakumar at 5. But KL Rahul is getting selected as vice-captain really, has been in terrible form across formats, and Gill has excellent recent record across formats. KL should really deliver on this underserved chance that he has got, and not end up embarrassing Rohit and Dravid.

Australia go to lunch at 76-2, and after a horrible start, I'd call that their session!

76/2 off 32 at lunch...good over rate for a pleasant change !

Makes that Australia's session despite the failure of both openers. Very good batting from the two premier bats : they will need to go on though because I am not sure how far I trust the rest of the batting against the three spinners with the ball doing a bit.

Back in forty...

Not watched any of the match as yet. Australia have 'IMHO' the two best building batsmen in test cricket out there now and they could take the Aussies to a very decent score.

No longer the two of them...Marnus deceived by Jadeja's change of pace and smartly stumped for 49.

84/3...oh no : 84/4 as Renshaw is lbw first ball !

Well now, Jadeja on a hatrick...

I am with you on the Renshaw selection there alfie. For me, Head has been in excellent form so his omission is an odd one.

Australia really in some trouble now.

Smith on the counter attack but that has played perfectly into India's plan. Smith now gone, Australia in deep trouble at 109-5.

Hi , eirebilly. I suppose Head struggled last year in Asia and they felt he would suffer here . But I would have given him a chance first rather then punt on a lesser player. Hasn't paid off so far !

He may not have had a good run last year in Asia alfie but his form of late has been good and confidence is a wonderful thing. Like you, i would have certainly picked Head for this game.

Oh dear ... That is the real hammer blow. Smith clean bowled by Jadeja , just after a flurry of boundaries had added a fast 25 with Handscomb...

In real trouble now at 109/5 with a bit of a tail beckoning. Jadeja having a rather good day !

Not to jinx them ; but Carey and Handscomb have done well to add 35 quite quickly with some positive cricket... Annoying partnership enough for Rohit to bring back Siraj for a change. Think the bats might be glad to see the back of Jadeja for a while ...

Ashwin yet to threaten much...0/33 in his tenth.

Fifty partnership . Carey's intelligent use of the reverse sweep - and readiness to attack anything remotely loose outside his off stump from the seamer - has revived an apparently sinking Australian cause . 36 at better than run a ball while Handscomb has settled to more of an anchor role...at 162/5 the chances of mustering a competitive score have increased a lot

Carey, in particular, looking very comfortable in these conditions but I do get the feeling that if India strike again soon, Australia will crumble to under 250.

Oh dear. There it is, Carey gone now.

Sorry

One reverse sweep too many.

Bottom edge , on to stumps. Ashwin strikes , Carey gone , 162/6. Just bowlers left.

eirebilly_01 wrote:Carey, in particular, looking very comfortable in these conditions but I do get the feeling that if India strike again soon, Australia will crumble to under 250.

If they get 250 I will be shocked ! Anything over 200 will probably be viewed as a decent effort after the loss of Smith. How competitive it will be is another question...

Its a hard slog ahead alfie but i think the Aussies can get 220-230 from here. Not so sure that their bowling line up is as strong as India's in these conditions though.