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2024 US Presidential Election

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Post by Duty281 Wed May 24, 2023 12:10 pm

First topic message reminder :

Thought we should have a thread on it, as Ron DeSantis is expected to launch his campaign on Twitter this evening. He's trailing Trump by a big margin for the Republican nomination, around 37% behind in the polling average. But there's a lot of time for things to change and the oddsmakers only have DeSantis as a 2/1 outsider, against Trump's 2/5. Doesn't appear to be any other serious contenders for the Republican nomination at this point.

Biden is expected to run again and defend his crown, but his advancing age (he's into his 80s now) and low approval ratings means he may be vulnerable to a Democratic challenger. The most likely challenger seems to be Robert Kennedy Jr. who has already announced his candidacy and has polled as high as 21%, but that was still 49% behind Biden. As such, Biden's a 2/9 clear favourite to be the Democrat nominee in 2024, but if he drops out for whatever reason then the race is wide open.

Only 531 days until the election...

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Post by navyblueshorts Thu Nov 14, 2024 2:24 pm

Pal Joey wrote:
navyblueshorts wrote:Without bothering to check, I wonder if the lack of tolerance mentioned is a function of those States with a FPTP-type electoral system, and is less common when there's a PR-style system and likely, therefore, more focus on policies that have more universal agreement?

Think the lack of tolerance is commonplace in both systems but the actual impact on the final outcome can certainly be different. The preferential PR system we have here is more complicated and tricky. Preference flows can vary wildly across different constituencies and quickly turn things upside down for the major two parties... to the point where things become so diluted and fragmented - at the expense of the major policies which may have some degree of universal agreement. It's probably more sensitive and more volatile than FPTP.

Also takes ages to tally it all up. As Duty noted; Florida was counted pretty quickly. A few weeks ago here in Qld... it reached "60% counted" in a small electorate in the same time (a few hours) then stalled for several days before the seat was actually called. And we're talking about 50,000 votes v 11,000,000 votes in Florida. Can even take weeks and several recounts sometimes. So the PR system is slower and more agonising.
Cheers for this. Interesting to see perspectives from elsewhere, and clearly lots of so-called PR variants out there.

Re. the time it takes to count votes etc, I'd rather a bit of time taken for a sound outcome in a decent system, than a fast outcome for a dubious outcome in an archaic system.
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Post by Pal Joey Thu Nov 14, 2024 2:34 pm

Yeah, I agree. But still... it can be a very slow process given the smaller amounts of ballots to count.
Found it interesting that Arizona and Nevada took their time but even they were still much quicker than some tiny electorates here.

They must have very long lunch breaks and days off during weekends. Smile

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