Ireland 2023/24 - RWC and Onwards

First topic message reminder :

So another season is over, and we're getting ready for Andy Farrell's announcement this coming week for his initial RWC squad that will be used in upcoming warm-up games against Italy (5 Aug) , England (19 Aug) both in Aviva, and then a whittled down finalised RWC squad to play Samoa in France on 26 Aug.

The U20s RWC kicks off in South Africa in July.

After Munster's well-deserved win against Stormers, Farrell & Co may have paused for thought as to who comes into the wider squad beyond the nailed-on members. The 42 man RWC Training Squad announced is:

Forwards (22)

Ryan Baird (Leinster/Dublin University)
Finlay Bealham (Connacht/Buccaneers)
Tadhg Beirne (Munster/Lansdowne)
Jack Conan (Leinster/Old Belvedere)
Gavin Coombes (Munster/Young Munster)
Caelan Doris (Leinster/St Mary’s College)
Tadhg Furlong (Leinster/Clontarf)
Cian Healy (Leinster/Clontarf)
Iain Henderson (Ulster/Academy)
Rob Herring (Ulster/Ballynahinch)
Ronan Kelleher (Leinster/Lansdowne)
Dave Kilcoyne (Munster/UL Bohemians)
Joe McCarthy (Leinster/Dublin University)
Peter O’Mahony (Munster/Cork Constitution)
Tom O’Toole (Ulster/Ballynahinch)
Andrew Porter (Leinster/UCD)
Cian Prendergast (Connacht/Corinthians)
James Ryan (Leinster/UCD)
Dan Sheehan (Leinster/Lansdowne)
Tom Stewart (Ulster/Ballynahinch)*
Kieran Treadwell (Ulster/Ballymena)
Josh van der Flier (Leinster/UCD)

Backs (20)

Bundee Aki (Connacht/Galwegians)
Caolin Blade (Connacht/Galwegians)
Ross Byrne (Leinster/UCD)
Craig Casey (Munster/Shannon)
Jack Crowley (Munster/Cork Constitution)
Keith Earls (Munster/Young Munster)
Ciaran Frawley (Leinster/UCD)*
Jamison Gibson-Park (Leinster)
Mack Hansen (Connacht/Corinthians)
Robbie Henshaw (Leinster/Buccaneers)
Hugo Keenan (Leinster/UCD)
James Lowe (Leinster)
Stuart McCloskey (Ulster/Bangor)
Conor Murray (Munster/Garryowen)
Calvin Nash (Munster/Young Munster)*
Jimmy O’Brien (Leinster/Naas)
Jamie Osborne (Leinster/Naas)*
Garry Ringrose (Leinster/UCD)
Jonathan Sexton (Leinster/St Mary’s College)
Jacob Stockdale (Ulster/Lurgan)

Collapse2005 wrote:Well the whole Ireland havent gotten out of the quarters stick to beat us with doesnt mention much that Ireland have never faced a tier two team in the quarters whereas plenty of other sides have. South Africa for example for all three of their world cup wins have faced tier two sides in the quarters, Samoa 95, Fiji 2007, Japan 2019. There is a bit of luck involved in how the draw falls albeit obviously if you win your group in theory you face a weaker side.

mikey has called a few things recently, so I wouldn't take it to heart. They're now referring to me as the Shot Caller. I'm not going to say you heard it 'ere first, but I wanted you to hear it from me last; "peaked too soon!"

There's a vowel wrong somewhere in that new nickname I think Mikey and its not the a or the e

Collapse2005 wrote:Well the whole Ireland havent gotten out of the quarters stick to beat us with doesnt mention much that Ireland have never faced a tier two team in the quarters whereas plenty of other sides have. South Africa for example for all three of their world cup wins have faced tier two sides in the quarters, Samoa 95, Fiji 2007, Japan 2019. There is a bit of luck involved in how the draw falls albeit obviously if you win your group in theory you face a weaker side.

Truish, SA have got there after playing the reigning world champions in their pool on each of those occasions (Aus in 95, Eng in 07 and NZ in 19). They did lose to NZ in the '19 pool game but came up against Japan in the quarters as Japan had beaten Ireland in the pool stage.

Galted wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:Well the whole Ireland havent gotten out of the quarters stick to beat us with doesnt mention much that Ireland have never faced a tier two team in the quarters whereas plenty of other sides have. South Africa for example for all three of their world cup wins have faced tier two sides in the quarters, Samoa 95, Fiji 2007, Japan 2019. There is a bit of luck involved in how the draw falls albeit obviously if you win your group in theory you face a weaker side.

Truish, SA have got there after playing the reigning world champions in their pool on each of those occasions (Aus in 95, Eng in 07 and NZ in 19).  They did lose to NZ in the '19 pool game but came up against Japan in the quarters as Japan had beaten Ireland in the pool stage.

Yes the point is Ireland has also won its group a few times and came second every other time (except '07 when they didnt get out of the group) but has never faced a tier two side. The times we have won our group we have had Australia and France in our group and cant remember the other one. In any case there is some luck in the draw because to win the world cup you have to be able to win 3/4 big games in a row and it certainly helps a lot if one of them is a tier two team.

On the Japan point, I think if Ireland faced Japan in a QF at the last world cup rather than the pool I think they may have won that as they certainly would have picked a stronger side but thats obviously speculation.

Ireland team to play Romania: 15. Hugo Keenan (Leinster); 14. Keith Earls (Munster), 13. Garry Ringrose (Leinster), 12. Bundee Aki (Connacht), 11. James Lowe (Leinster); 10. Jonathan Sexton (Leinster, captain), 9. Jamison Gibson-Park (Leinster); 1. Andrew Porter (Leinster), 2. Rob Herring (Ulster), 3. Tadhg Furlong (Leinster), 4. Joe McCarthy (Leinster), 5. James Ryan (Leinster), 6. Tadhg Beirne (Munster), 7. Peter O’Mahony (Munster), 8. Caelan Doris (Leinster).


Replacements: 16. Rónan Kelleher (Leinster), 17. Jeremy Loughman (Munster), 18. Tom O’Toole (Ulster), 19. Iain Henderson (Ulster), 20. Josh van der Flier (Leinster), 21. Conor Murray (Munster), 22. Jack Crowley (Munster), 23. Robbie Henshaw (Leinster).

Very strong side!! Would like to see a statement win.

5 Lions on the bench.

I can see Joe McCarthy being the breakout player from this world cup

A big part of success is keeping the forwards fresh

Go with a pack something like:
Kilcoyne, Herring, Bealham, Henderson, McCarty, Conan, Baird, Der Flier against Tonga
Bench: Porter, Sheehan, O'Toole, Beirne, O'Mahoney

against Tonga
Keeps the first choice eight fresh - probably only der Flier starting

Understandable nerves surrounding this group but I think the order of the fixtures suits Ireland. We have the advantage of watching SA Scotland play out in the first round which will force the two to show their hand early, or at least it will with Scotland. I suppose with SA it's more of a case of knowing what's coming but whether you can stop it.

But also we'll know what we need to do to finish in the top 2 spots. Particularly if SA win then we can target Scotland in the last game knowing a win puts us through. If Scotland upset the Boks however then IRE vs SA becomes more important.

It's also convenient having France face off against NZ early. If there's a one-sided win for either side then it might be important to qualify 1st to better our chances in the QFs. Although I don't expect this and if instead it's a fairly close game Farrell may realise finishing 1st/2nd might be somewhat unimportant and can afford to rotate the squad a little in order to keep the squad fresh for the knockout stages.

theslosty wrote:Understandable nerves surrounding this group but I think the order of the fixtures suits Ireland. We have the advantage of watching SA Scotland play out in the first round which will force the two to show their hand early, or at least it will with Scotland. I suppose with SA it's more of a case of knowing what's coming but whether you can stop it.

But also we'll know what we need to do to finish in the top 2 spots. Particularly if SA win then we can target Scotland in the last game knowing a win puts us through. If Scotland upset the Boks however then IRE vs SA becomes more important.

It's also convenient having France face off against NZ early. If there's a one-sided win for either side then it might be important to qualify 1st to better our chances in the QFs. Although I don't expect this and if instead it's a fairly close game Farrell may realise finishing 1st/2nd might be somewhat unimportant and can afford to rotate the squad a little in order to keep the squad fresh for the knockout stages.

That scenario only comes into play if both Scotland and Ireland beat SA correct? Otherwise our last game v Scotland is critical for qualification. As such probably a bit unlikely.

PJ is running an in-house prediction competition for the world cup if anyone's interested:

https://www.606v2.com/t71211-2023-rugby-world-cup-tipping-competition

Thanks Galted.

I'd just like to add...

Forget the nerves, possible scenarios, fresh forwards. It's not that important. What we all do know is that Ireland will absolutely have their way with Romania. That's for certain!  

It'd be nice to see some of you top quality Irish posters (or those sharing partial genetic material with Irish bloodlines) join us on the 2023 RWC tipping competition. I think 2023 really is Ireland's chance to shine on the World Rugby Stage!

We really need some more intelligent and enlightened rugby minds to reach new heights when it comes to speculating outcomes for such important matches. As I can see from the never-ending pages of posts... you guys really do know what you're talking about. Always a great read.  

https://www.606v2.com/t71211-2023-rugby-world-cup-tipping-competition

Hope to see some of you on there. Just whack down the first round of matches (copy Galted's post below)... and simply change his silly predictions to something more likely and sensible.

Hope to see you all soon! Love you all!


Galted's Predictions:

Pool A
France v NZ - Fra C
Italy v Namibia - Ita T

Pool B
Ireland v Romania - Ire T (first half only)
South Africa v Scotland - SA C

Pool C
Australia v Georgia - Aus T
Wales v Fiji - Wal E

Pool D
England v Argentina - D
Japan v Chile - Jap T

Collapse2005 wrote:

theslosty wrote:Understandable nerves surrounding this group but I think the order of the fixtures suits Ireland. We have the advantage of watching SA Scotland play out in the first round which will force the two to show their hand early, or at least it will with Scotland. I suppose with SA it's more of a case of knowing what's coming but whether you can stop it.

But also we'll know what we need to do to finish in the top 2 spots. Particularly if SA win then we can target Scotland in the last game knowing a win puts us through. If Scotland upset the Boks however then IRE vs SA becomes more important.

It's also convenient having France face off against NZ early. If there's a one-sided win for either side then it might be important to qualify 1st to better our chances in the QFs. Although I don't expect this and if instead it's a fairly close game Farrell may realise finishing 1st/2nd might be somewhat unimportant and can afford to rotate the squad a little in order to keep the squad fresh for the knockout stages.

That scenario only comes into play if both Scotland and Ireland beat SA correct? Otherwise our last game v Scotland is critical for qualification. As such probably a bit unlikely.

Well yeah I suppose. I was thinking of rotating slightly vs SA but I suppose that in turn puts big pressure on the Scotland game

I suspect both will improve but the level on show between France and NZ should have provided plenty of optimism for the teams in Group B tonight

Well good win in regards to points difference.
But our lineout was still shonky, which is a worry

carpet baboon wrote:Well good win in regards to points difference.
But our lineout was still shonky, which is a worry

Considering Paul O'Connell is part of the management team I'm surprised. I'm concerned a few teams have figured out how to defend Ireland at attacking line outs. Maybe I'm overthinking things too much especially after a few beers

My hope is they are using old calls till they get to Scotland

82 - 8? Seems a bit pointless having Romania play the no.1 ranked team. They’ll be repeats of that score when they play SA and Scotland.

mikey_dragon wrote:82 - 8? Seems a bit pointless having Romania play the no.1 ranked team. They’ll be repeats of that score when they play SA and Scotland.

Unfortunately there's no hiding in rugby like you can with football, in that you can put 11 men behind the ball and dig in. Lets remember Romania are only here due to Spain's incompetent union.

But the talk of a 24 team world cup is far too premature. We aren't there yet.

Well done on scraping past against Romania my celtic brothers.

Close one.

George Carlin wrote:Well done on scraping past against Romania my celtic brothers.

Close one.

I was worried in the last 5 minutes that they would throw it away but they just about held on

Think SA missed out on taking the world number 1 spot by one point v Scotland, needed to win by 16

I think the SA vs Ireland doesn't carry much consequence for either team. They face France or New Zealand irrespective.

The only significance really is who carries the winning momentum into the quarters and perhaps some extra confidence.

Old Man wrote:I think the SA vs Ireland doesn't carry much consequence for either team. They face France or New Zealand irrespective.

The only significance really is who carries the winning momentum into the quarters and perhaps some extra confidence.

It will matter to Ireland in my view, I’m sure they want NZ. France at home would be tougher.

Well, I don't think the Boks have a preferred opponent between those two.

Old Man wrote:Well, I don't think the Boks have a preferred opponent between those two.

That would seem a bit odd to me given the Boks just thrashed NZ and lost their last game to France and lost it in France.

It also seems clear France are a better side than NZ at the moment but I agree that both sides would be very tough.

Collapse2005 wrote:

Old Man wrote:Well, I don't think the Boks have a preferred opponent between those two.

That would seem a bit odd to me given the Boks just thrashed NZ and lost their last game to France and lost it in France.

It also seems clear France are a better side than NZ at the moment but I agree that both sides would be very tough.

The last match between SA and France went to the wire. SA was leading that match and only a yellow card changed the game inthe lastten minutes. Prior to that match SA haven't been beaten by France since 2906 I believe, the All Blacks onthe otherhand beat SA comfortably at Mount Smart thisyear. Since the last world cup the results are three wins each.

Each lf these teams can beat the other on the day. Rankings form etc has little bearing in the RWC as I believe preparation, discipline and mental fortitude will be the deciding factors on the day.

Fair enough, this French side has really kicked on in the last four years and SA has only played them once in that time. They are a different beast now. I think SA France would be a fascinating game as they are similar enough sides. I think SA would find it hard to bully them, whereas I feel France, SA and Ireland all have a pack that can beat up NZs and no one will have to play them in Mt Smart, Eden Park or anywhere else outside of France.

Irish Times suggests this is the likely line up:
IRELAND (possible v Tonga): H Keenan; M Hansen, G Ringrose, R Henshaw, J Lowe; J Sexton, C Murray; A Porter, R Kelleher, T Furlong; I Henderson, J Ryan; T Beirne, J van der Flier, C Doris.

Maine man wrote:Irish Times suggests this is the likely line up:
IRELAND (possible v Tonga): H Keenan; M Hansen, G Ringrose, R Henshaw, J Lowe; J Sexton, C Murray; A Porter, R Kelleher, T Furlong; I Henderson, J Ryan; T Beirne, J van der Flier, C Doris.

Jesus there is no holding back. Id expect there to be at least one injury in that game. Id say if they start well and sew up the win early there will be an early unloading of the bench.

Farrell has to go all out, that side hasn't had quite enough time together to prepare for the 2 big games ahead. Tonga are very physical but there's little choice if this team is to be match ready for the Boks. Win against them and it's time to rotate a bit v Scotland. After that it's knockout time but we have to get there first.

15. Hugo Keenan (Leinster/UCD)(32)
14. Mack Hansen (Connacht/Corinthians)(17)
13. Garry Ringrose (Leinster/UCD)(53)
12. Bundee Aki (Connacht/Galwegians)(48)
11. James Lowe (Leinster)(22)
10. Johnny Sexton (Leinster/St Mary’s College)(captain)(114)
9. Conor Murray (Munster/Garryowen)(108)

1. Andrew Porter (Leinster/UCD)(55)
2. Ronan Kelleher (Leinster/Lansdowne)(22)
3. Tadhg Furlong (Leinster/Clontarf)(68)
4. Tadhg Beirne (Munster/Lansdowne)(42)
5. James Ryan (Leinster/UCD)(56)
6. Peter O’Mahony (Munster/Cork Constitution)(97)
7. Josh van der Flier (Leinster/UCD)(53)
8. Caelan Doris (Leinster/St Mary’s College)(32)

Replacements:

16. Rob Herring (Ulster/Ballynahinch)(38)
17. David Kilcoyne (Munster/UL Bohemians)(52)
18. Finlay Bealham (Connacht/Buccaneers)(32)
19. Iain Henderson (Ulster/Academy)(75)
20. Ryan Baird (Leinster/Dublin University)(13)
21. Craig Casey (Munster/Shannon)(12)
22. Ross Byrne (Leinster/UCD)(21)
23. Robbie Henshaw (Leinster/Buccaneers)(65).

Interesting no sheehan at all in squad

Collapse2005 wrote:Interesting no sheehan at all in squad

Wrapping him in cotton wool then?

That sign about watering Peter O’Mahony’s garden has been doing the rounds and I had no clue what it was about. I did a bit of searching on Insta, it appears POM is somewhat of a landscape architect .

He likes his garden so he does

Ah Jees there's only one thing Peter O'Mahony likes more than smashing people and being smashed by people, it's trimming the grass and tending to the begonias. His lawn's like a billiard table.

That went ok.  Pity about Bealham - hope his injury is not too severe but it could be O'Toole is on the bench for next week.  

Has Bundee Aki been given a new heart and battery? He's playing out of his skin in this tournament and is now the top try scorer with 4 to his name so far.

Hansen is just magical.  His stepping and weaving for his try was joyous.

And Sexton getting his third try to break the all-time Irish test points record record was just fitting.

Bundee is playing in the form of his life at the moment and when you think of who his opposing player/players were it makes that performance even more impressive.
It was another game that was won without having to stretch the side too much but physical enough to get the players match fit. Hopefully Bealham will be OK but bar that Farrell's got a full deck to play with so this coming weekend will be really interesting indeed, I'm both excited and terrified......tercited

I actually though Murray had one of his best games in a while too. His passing was fairly crisp and was involved in some good moments.

So all the planning and strategy now come down to the next 2(maybe 3) games. Pool of Death and a potential QF if we get out of the pool. Warm up matches are over. Squad has been managed. Missing LH cover in Healy and potentially TH cover in Bealham (subject to assessment).

This is where we want to play, this is the table we want to be at.

I'm nervous, but excited. Roll on the next couple of weeks.

Anyone else going to the game? SA have been the most impressive side in world rugby in the last month but I think Ireland will win. SA have more key injuries than us, they are struggling with their goal kicking and they have a six day turn around. We also have a very good record against this Bok side, only Mostert and Malherbe have won more games that they have lost v Ireland and quite a few Boks have never won v Ireland including Libbok and Pollard. I think winning the URC in SA and the familiarity the Irish guys have of SA sides but also the fact that SA players also now know how good many if the Irish teams and players are plays in our favour. There in reality isnt much between the two sides but I think we will do it and I think we will have to win this game if we want to win the RWC because of the message that will send our opponents particularly in a potential QF. I do hope Farrell and co put out some positive confident messages in the media to sow some doubt in Bok minds. Bring on that sweet 16th win!

It will be a great game, potentially the best game in the pool stage of the tournament.

I'm flip flopping between who I think will win, at the moment I am thinking Ireland but both teams have won their matches so far without having to get out of second gear.

SArugby mentality only have two settings, confident or the world don't rate uslet's prove them wromg.

Not a lot of room for doubt.

After listening to a number of Irish podcasts and chats on Youtube one thing is clear to me.

The focus of the conversations have been about how will Ireland break down SA defence.

Perhaps they should have spent some time on the SA attack as well.

As for injuries. Marx is a massive loss, goal kicking is an issue without Pollard.
Lukhanyo Am is a big loss.

Can't do anything about injuries, Pollard will be involved for sure, Kriel will just have to step up.

Oakdene wrote:It will be a great game, potentially the best game in the pool stage of the tournament.

I'm flip flopping between who I think will win, at the moment I am thinking Ireland but both teams have won their matches so far without having to get out of second gear.

Yeah I dont think anyone will be surprised if the Boks win as they have the antidote to Irelands game, aka starve them of ball but I just feel that Farrell has figured out the psychology of the RWC and the importance of generating momentum and a feel good factor. I feel that will give this side a greater sense of focus, belief and ease when they take on the Boks which should allow them to reach their potential which I think will be enough but not by much.

Collapse2005 wrote:

Oakdene wrote:It will be a great game, potentially the best game in the pool stage of the tournament.

I'm flip flopping between who I think will win, at the moment I am thinking Ireland but both teams have won their matches so far without having to get out of second gear.

Yeah I dont think anyone will be surprised if the Boks win as they have the antidote to Irelands game, aka starve them of ball but I just feel that Farrell has figured out the psychology of the RWC and the importance of generating momentum and a feel good factor. I feel that will give this side a greater sense of focus, belief and ease when they take on the Boks which should allow them to reach their potential which I think will be enough but not by much.

Totally agree, you can't score if you don't have the ball!

It's going to be attractional & tight at times but I think the cohesion in the Irish back like might just put them as slight favourites.

It is difficult to know where these two teams stand in respect to one another. In my mind Ireland wants to play the momentum game, plenty of phases work up quick successive ruck ball and use their ball skills to offload, find players in space to score.

South Africa on the defence is that antithesis of that. They can successfully slow down ruck ball, take away space, put pressure and physically create pressure.

Both teams have strong set piece. Although it might be a case of Ireland starting to struggle against the bomb squad.

South Africa have expanded their variation of scoring points. They no longer trade in threes. Whilst scoreboard pressure is a priority not just for them, most teams in tight matches will take threes when on offer.

The thought that SA mainly score from mauls are significantly outdate. Whilst they still use the maul as a weapon they have different variations from the platform and the match at Twickenham showed they aren't just a one trick pony from the line out.

In fact looker beyond the maul 70% of their tries are scored from outside the maul.

I saw an interesting podcast this week (I believe it was off the ball) where they suggested the matches Ireland had won vs SA was due to being smarter. Eg. Not engaging the maul. And SA kept on doing it.

I think the reason for the debate around this weekend is SA had only played Ireland once since the last RWC and that was an away game, result was close, could have gone the other way.

Rassie has made this team a lot smarter than prior to 2018.

Discipline, execution and mental preparation will provide the outcome of this match, can SA physically dominate Ireland, can Ireland cope with the pressure they will experience.

Good luck to any brave soul predicting the outcome of this match

What is the bomb squad these days, is it a replacement front row? Or is it considered to be the whole pack?

If it refers to the front row Ireland could struggle with two new props however, with Bealham fit and Kilcoyne and O'Toole in reserve I think we would be just about ok and with Marx missing that takes the edge off.

If it refers to the whole pack I really dont see our dept in second row or even back row as any worse to SAs. Having Baird, McCarthy and Henderson as back up second row is very strong, having Conan or either Henderson and Baird to cover back row is very strong too.

I will say though it is noticeable how much SA's discipline has improved over the last four years and the game plan has evolved particularly in the last year and a half. They are also very good at slowing down rucks without committing too many numbers.

Collapse2005 wrote:What is the bomb squad these days, is it a replacement front row? Or is it considered to be the whole pack?

If it refers to the front row Ireland could struggle with two new props however, with Bealham fit and Kilcoyne and O'Toole in reserve I think we would be just about ok and with Marx missing that takes the edge off.

If it refers to the whole pack I really dont see our dept in second row or even back row as any worse to SAs. Having Baird, McCarthy and Henderson as back up second row is very strong, having Conan or either Henderson and Baird to cover back row is very strong too.

Well, then Ireland is sorted.

Old Man wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:What is the bomb squad these days, is it a replacement front row? Or is it considered to be the whole pack?

If it refers to the front row Ireland could struggle with two new props however, with Bealham fit and Kilcoyne and O'Toole in reserve I think we would be just about ok and with Marx missing that takes the edge off.

If it refers to the whole pack I really dont see our dept in second row or even back row as any worse to SAs. Having Baird, McCarthy and Henderson as back up second row is very strong, having Conan or either Henderson and Baird to cover back row is very strong too.

Well, then Ireland is sorted.

Well you tell me? I didnt see a massive impact last November, did you?

SA have more injuries to the pack than Ireland with Marx and de Jager missing from last November with Ezebeth and Kock carrying knocks. Ireland will probably only have Healy missing.

As I said, good luck to any brave soul who predicts the outcome of this match. My thoughts have been communicated, and I expect a tough competitive match. If you believe Ireland can match SA physicality then they have won half the battle

The main difference for SA now is surely the options they have in the backs.

They really are a 15 man team now and don't just hurt you up front.

But then again so are Ireland, so it really is to close to call.

The intricacies of the group mean that Scotland need SA to win and ideally deny Ireland BP, so that is the outcome I will be hoping for but in reality it will be close and could go either way.