Wimbledon Seeds

Today is when we know who the Wimbledon seeds will be.

I shall be keeping my eye on this. Will Federer be no.2 seed based on the calculations?

Can't wait to see what seeding Del Potro gets.

Also the Women's seeds shall be interesting too.

From a purely selfish point of view I'd sooner see Roger Federer seeded No.3. I'd fancy Andy's chances a little bit more on grass against Novak Djokovic in the semis than against grass master Federer.

True CC, very true. That is provided he gets on Novak's side of the draw.

Yes that is true as well. At the moment I'd still make Roger Federer favourite to win Wimbledon purely on his superior (to the rest) grass court pedigree. For that reason I'd be happy for Andy to avoid Federer until the final (if both get that far).

not sure i favour andy against any of the other 3, hes mentally fragile when it comes to the top players in a grand slam. saying that though he played very well at queens

ironclad you are forgetting he has beaten Nadal twice in slams (once in the US Open and once in the Australian Open).

true cal but Nadal is coming into a bit of form aswell, so will be v tough for andy, but who knows on the day

Yes but going by their semi last year then Andy pushed him all the way in three sets that could have gone either way and this year he goes into Wimbledon with a far better clay court season (than last yearbehind him) and a win at Queen's Club (again unlike last year).

If I understand the formula correctly, Federer will add 1860 points to his ranking points, Djokovic 720 from last year's Wimbledon plus a few (maybe 100) from whichever of Wimbledon 09 and Halle 10 he gained more point in.

As the gap between them is nearly 3000 points, the grass adjustment will not make any difference to their seeding.

The seeding adjustment helps protect Rafa as #1, increasing the gap to Djokovic. Similarly, Andy moves further away from Soderling, who is safe as #5 seed. I think though that Berdych jumps Ferrer courtesy of the points from the final of last year.

I think Roddick jumps both Mardy Fish and possibly Monfils courtesy of the points from the final at Wimbledon 09.

I wish Novak was #3 and seeded in the same half as Rafa. I think he would like another crack at Rafa and as a Novak fan think that Rafa would be his best matchup in the semis when compared to either Fed or murray. Fed and Murray play in the semis and Novak and Rafa. As a Novak fan that would be my ideal draw, but from what dummy says its looks safe that fed will be #3 seed, in that case please put him in Nadal's half.

Here is the list of seeds for this year's wimbledon. Roddick does indeed surpass both Fish and Monfils and is seeded 8th. A few "top 4" points.

1. Tsonga seeded 12th, means he can't play one of the top 4 until the QF.
2. The danger-men in the fourth round seem to be Gasquet and maybe Llodra.
3. The really dangerous 3rd round opponent could well be Raonic.

I wish Novak was #3 and seeded in the same half as Rafa.
------------------
THat woudl be great!

Does anyone know how to work out the seeding on grass?

Del Potro will be a danger man. Wonder who will get the brutal draw out of the top 4.

If the draw is drawn like last year then;

Rafa to meet Roger in semi
Delporto to meet Tomas BERDYCH in Round 4, and whoever wins will meet Novak in QF, and the winner to meet Andy in semi - mouth watering draw!

As a Murray fan I'd rather he was drawn in Djokovic's half.

Ideal draw (3rd round through to QF):
Chela
Almagro
Ferrer

Killer draw:
Raonic
Gasquet
Sod/Roddick/Tsonga

I don't know legend I have never been overly impressed by Del po on grass, I don't think he is someone that the top seeds are too worried about on this surface. For me the scare guy is Raonic, his serve is huge, he has pretty good feel at net and is more complete a player than Dr. Ivo.

Not up on these things so can someone explain how open the draw is. Taking Nadal for instance as number 1 seed in the last 32 could he play anyone from seed 17 to 32 or would it be someone between 25 and 32. Similarly in the last 16 would it be anyone between 9 and 16 or someone between 13 and 16. In the semis could he play either of Federer or Murray.

This is all assuming that seedings work out which as we know they don't often do.

"As a Murray fan I'd rather he was drawn in Djokovic's half."

So would I

noleisthebest wrote:"As a Murray fan I'd rather he was drawn in Djokovic's half."

So would I

Out of the top three on grass Novak would be the better choice for Andy, but still not easy however and who gets past that one still has a monumental task.

noleisthebest wrote:"As a Murray fan I'd rather he was drawn in Djokovic's half."

So would I

yeah I can understand that NITB. Federer's my favourite to win the thing, so wouldn't want him in my player's half (which thankfully he can't be). Just think Murray's got a better chance at beating Djokovic than Nadal on grass.

Calder
Nadal could play any seed between 25 and 32 in R3, and 13 to 16 in R4 (or obvisouly 17 to 24 if they get through).
Thus, the earliest Del P could play one of the top 4 is in R4...

Nitb, you are being very naughty goading the Andy fan's. Lol. Personally this year I want Andy and Roger in the opposite half of the draw. I think Novak has a bead on Nadal's game while Roger and Andy seem to both be in good form.

socal, Djokovic and Nadal are seeded 1 and 2 so can't be in the same side of the draw...

superochog, it's not definite that Nadal and Federer will meet in the semis, it all depends on whether they are drawn on the same side of the draw, only seeds #1 & #2 are confirmed, seeds #3 & #4 are allocated randomly to either side of the draw. There's an equal chance Federer will play either Djokovic or Nadal (if they all make it that far), we'll find out for sure tomorrow.

socal1976 wrote:Nitb, you are being very naughty goading the Andy fan's. Lol. Personally this year I want Andy and Roger in the opposite half of the draw. I think Novak has a bead on Nadal's game while Roger and Andy seem to both be in good form.

Me, naughty?
Where's your guts Socal?

legendkillar wrote:Today is when we know who the Wimbledon seeds will be.

Also the Women's seeds shall be interesting too.

Serena #8 Venus#24

Has serena used a protected ranking? How do these work again??

Can't wait for the draw, so many different possibilities and it will play a major outcome in deciding the tournament winner.

BigSal

Basically the Wimbledon seedings are done as follows.
1. Take current points tally.
2. Add on grass court points from last 12 months (basically this year's wimbledon prep plus last year's wimbledon).
3. Add on 75% of grass court points earned in the 12 months before that

As an example, for Andy Murray.
(current points tally = 6855) + ((2) = 250 (2011 Queens) + 720 (2010 Wim) = 970) + ((3) = 0.75*(20 (Queens 2010) + 720 (Wim 2009)) = 555) = 8380
If I'm right that is...

Thanks for earlier reply Chelsea I understand now why Tsonga can't meet a top 4 seed before the QF's.

Im surprised to see Nalby up there at 28 having had so much time out but nice to see nonetheless

for me i think Murray would have a better chance of beating fed in a semi than in a final, unfortunately as Fed will be seeded 3rd they are guaranteed to be on opposite sides of the draw.

I would also welcome the novelty of a Rafa/Fed semi.

Me too, I think if it is a Rafa/Fed semi, it might be a lot more interesting, there would be less pressure on Fed (because it's not the final) which can spice things up for an epic match. I still think a Novak/Fed semi would be entertaining in itself and that would still allow for a potential Fed/Nadal clash.

luciusmann wrote:Me too, I think if it is a Rafa/Fed semi, it might be a lot more interesting, there would be less pressure on Fed (because it's not the final) which can spice things up for an epic match. I still think a Novak/Fed semi would be entertaining in itself and that would still allow for a potential Fed/Nadal clash.

the problem with Fed/Djoko semis, is that we have seen potential for so many of these over the years its becoming tedious for me.

E.g potential clashes by top and bottom

Wimbledon
2010: Fed/Djoko; Murray/ Rafa
2009: FedDjoko; Murray /rafa (withdrew)
2008: Fed/Djoko; Murray/Rafa (QF)
2007: Fed/-; Rafa/Djoko

FO
2011:Fed/Djoko; Murray/ Rafa
2010:Fed/Murray; Rafa/Djoko
2009:Fed/Djoko; Murray/ Rafa
2008:Fed/-; Rafa/Djoko
2007:Fed/-; Rafa/Djoko

AO:
2011:Fed/Djoko; Murray/ Rafa
2010:Fed/Djoko; Murray/ Rafa
2009:Fed/Djoko; Murray/ Rafa
2008:Fed/Djoko; Murray/ Rafa
2007:Fed/Djoko; Murray/ Rafa

USO:
2010:Fed/Djoko; Murray/ Rafa
2009:Fed/Djoko; Murray/ Rafa
2008:Fed/Djoko; Murray/ Rafa
2007:Fed/Murray; Rafa/Djoko

It worth noting that all slams follow the 1/2 seeds opposite sides of the draw and then the 3/4 are randomised etc. So given nadal and Fed have been 1 and 2 or vice versa for years, you would statistically expect to see roughly a 50/50 split where Murray and Djoko land in either the top half or the bottom half (even where these two were lower ranked). I.e there should be an approximately equal chance of Murray or Djoko being in Federer or Nadal's half of the draw at any given slam.

Yet out of 18 slams listed. Murray and Nadal have been on collision course 13 times, as have Federer and Djoko.

Looking at Murrays chances on HC slams hes been on course to play Fed in the final 8 of 9 times, when statistically it should only have been 4-5 times. Only once has Murray been on course to meet Federer in a HC slam SF.

As i've said i think Murray would have a better chance of beating Fed in a slam SF than in a final and if he did that, then his mental approach to the final would become very positive imo.

Now Fed and Murray can only meet in the final, it would be nice if Murray were not in Nadals half, especially at the USO, just to showed a start in the balancing of the stats above.

The seedings for the USO could be different after Wimbledon depending on who wins it, surely?

It is true that there have been a lot more opportunities for Fed/Djoko and Nadal/Murray slam semis than the other variations and they haven't always materialized. It would be a different dynamic to have a Nadal/Fed semi, although I think a Nadal/Murray semi would go the same way as last year.

I do take the view that one of the top four will not reach the semis, I'm not sure which one at the moment, maybe Djokovic, although his record last year was good and it's been brilliant this year but with his recent loss, hard to know if he will make the bounce back, we'll know when he plays. It could equally be Murray, but on the back of Queens, again, hard to see that happening. I can't see Nadal/Federer going out before the semis this year, that would be quite an upset.

luciusmann wrote:The seedings for the USO could be different after Wimbledon depending on who wins it, surely?

It is true that there have been a lot more opportunities for Fed/Djoko and Nadal/Murray slam semis than the other variations and they haven't always materialized. It would be a different dynamic to have a Nadal/Fed semi, although I think a Nadal/Murray semi would go the same way as last year.

I do take the view that one of the top four will not reach the semis, I'm not sure which one at the moment, maybe Djokovic, although his record last year was good and it's been brilliant this year but with his recent loss, hard to know if he will make the bounce back, we'll know when he plays. It could equally be Murray, but on the back of Queens, again, hard to see that happening. I can't see Nadal/Federer going out before the semis this year, that would be quite an upset.

Yes the seeding for the USO could be different, but its incredibly likely that Murray could still be 50/50 on paper to be in Federers half.

MfC
Almost right - the addition is 100% of the grass court points from the previous 12 months and 75% of the grass court points from the highest scoring single tournament (so if you won Queens or Halle 2010 but lost early at Wimbledon 2009, you'd count 75% of the 250 points rather than 75% of not many).

As for seedings by the USO, because of the points players have to defend from Canada and Cinci, it is likely that Djokovic and Nadal will be #1 and #2 (in either order), Federer 3 and Murray 4 - it would need a big collapse from the top 2 to really open the door to Federer (who could move ahead of Rafa by winning Wimbledon, but has a lot to defend up to the USO, while Rafa gains 500 when a penalty zero score falls off)

Ah well, Murray only got 15 points from Queens 09 dummy_half, so I wasn't too far off anyway...

So the seeds in the men's singles are:
1 Rafael NADAL (ESP) [1] - No Change

2 Novak DJOKOVIC (SRB) [2] - No Change

3 Roger FEDERER (SUI) [3] - No Change

4 Andy MURRAY (GBR) [4] - No Change

5 Robin SODERLING (SWE) [5] - No Change

6 Tomas BERDYCH (CZE) [6] - Up one (though doesn't affect his draw)

7 David FERRER (ESP) [7] - Down one (again, no real effect)

8 Andy RODDICK (USA) [8] - Up 2, and moves up one 'group' of seeds, to the 5-8 group, and should get easier 3rd and 4th round opponents as a result (i.e. someone in the 25-32 range in R3 and 9-12 in R4)

9 Gael MONFILS (FRA) [9] - Down 1, and drops one 'group', so the opposite of Roddick (17-24 seeds in R3 and 5-8 in R4)

10 Mardy FISH (USA) [10] - Down 1, but no real effect

11 Jurgen MELZER (AUT) [11] - No change

12 Jo-Wilfried TSONGA (FRA) [12] - The big beneficiary, in moving up 7 and well into the top 16, making R3 much easier.

13 Viktor TROICKI (SRB) [13] - Down 1 and drops one 'group - can now be drawn against seeds 1-4 in R4 rather than seeds 5-8

14 Stanislas WAWRINKA (SUI) [14] - No change (Tsonga moved up, but Gasquet moved down)

15 Gilles SIMON (FRA) [15] - Up one (no effect)

16 Nicolas ALMAGRO (ESP) [16] - Down 1 (no effect)

17 Richard GASQUET (FRA) [17] - Down 4 and the player who has lost out worst by dropping from the top 16 and so getting a potentially much tougher R3 match (against seeds 8 to 16)

18 Mikhail YOUZHNY (RUS) [18] - Down 1 (no effect)

19 Michael LLODRA (FRA) [19] - Up 6 and another to gain by moving up one 'group' - will now be drawn to face seeds 9-16 in R3 rather than 1-8

20 Florian MAYER (GER) [20] - Down 2 (no effect)

21 Fernando VERDASCO (ESP) [21] - Up 2 (no effect)

22 Alexandr DOLGOPOLOV (UKR) [22] - Down 1 (no effect)

23 Janko TIPSAREVIC (SRB) [23] - Up 7 and up one 'group' in the draw, so R3 against 9-16 rather than 1-8

24 Juan Martin DEL POTRO (ARG) [24] - Down 2 (no effect, but a bit harsh considering he was absent last year)


25 Juan Ignacio CHELA (ARG) [25] - Down 5 (down one 'group')
26 Guillermo GARCIA-LOPEZ (ESP) [26] - Up 7, but no effect
27 Marin CILIC (CRO) [27] - No change
28 David NALBANDIAN (ARG) [28] - Down 4 and drops one 'group'
29 Nikolay DAVYDENKO (RUS) [29] - Down 1
30 Thomaz BELLUCCI (BRA) [30] - Down 1
31 Milos RAONIC (CAN) [31] - Down 5
32 Marcos BAGHDATIS (CYP) [32] - Down 1

The highlighting is to show the highest ranked players that the top 4 can be drawn against in R3 (blue) and R4 (green). I think R3 you'd want to avoid Nalbandian (if fit) and Raonic (because of his serve). The highest ranked potential R4 opponents don't look to hold too many terrors, if Stan's not in great shape, although of course by then they could have been knocked out by the likes of Del Potro, Llodra or Gasquet.

Unliky for Gasquet ...and his round 3 opponent!

AS s noval fan I want no part of Raonic, I hope he is in Rafa's half of the draw. Nitb, you are very naughty, personally I have no problem with any draw, you know me I think or guy is going to take this thing, I just wish he would have had a warm up tournament.

Querry is out. Sad but a relieve for some players. Wouldn't have beaten any of the top players but always tough against a big server.

Socal

I't a bit odd isn't it that the 25-32 group looks to have a few real banana skins in it (Baggy is hugely inconsistent but can beat anyone on his best days, same for Cilic, Davydenko is a former top 5er coming back from injury, Raonic is an up and comer with plenty of weapons and Nalbandian is a former finalist), whereas the potential R4 opponents for the top 4 (i.e possibly anyone from 12 to 24 in the seeding) only really have Del Potro that would scare you in a big way - the others should all be handleable with an averagely good performance.

Simple

I think there will be a few sighs of relief at that news - as you said, probably someone who would be looking to make R4 and pick up some good points here, who would have been a really dangerous floater in the draw. Even the likes of Djokovic and Federer, with their lack of match practice on grass, will be quite glad to see that he isn't there as a potential first or second round opponent.

Dummy, it is interesting that the biggest threats to the top players might actually come in round 3. Raonic to me with that 150 mph hour serve and pretty good all around game is the fear factor so to speak. And as you said Fed and Novak have no grass court practice, you can't exactly practice for a 150 mph serve coming at you on a grass court.

CaledonianCraig wrote:ironclad you are forgetting he has beaten Nadal twice in slams (once in the US Open and once in the Australian Open).

...both hard court not grass

Talantonian

True - however, the Wimbledon SF last year was really a close and competetive match which turned on the fact that Rafa won most of the big points - overall he only won about 5 more points than Andy but it was sufficient to create a straight sets victory. I don't think Rafa is in such good form this year as last (one thing I noticed is he seems to be getting unusually tight when trying to close out matches) and Andy certainly played better through the clay season and at Queens.

I'm not saying Andy would definitely get the better of Nadal if they meet, but I think it will be a very interesting match and Andy would have a pretty good chance.

Taltonian back to my point that Murray is not lacking in technical ability but that he is not yet mature enough mentally and strong enough when compared with the guys ranked above him. To win 5 less points in a best of five match and not win a set shows getting tight on the big points.

Socal

Look at the SFs where Murray has beaten Nadal - it can easily be argued that the difference in those was that Andy DID win the big points in an otherwise tight match.

My opinion of Andy is that he lacks a little of the consistency of the top 3 (at present) and is more likely to produce a really duff performance, but when he plays well he's a tough match up for anyone (hence his success in the MS1000 events against comparably strong fields). The difference last year was that Nadal played just a little bit better, same as he did against Fed in the RG final.

My one concern for Murray from the psychological point of view is that he has now been in 3 GS finals and hasn't done himself justice in any of them - this will only add to the pressure he must be putting on himself to get that elusive first slam (I think it's much more an internal personal thing than anything to do with the history of being the first British slam winner since the mid Jurassic - I think Henman probably carried the weight of history more heavily because he was more an 'Establishment' character).

Perhaps what we (as Murray fans) need is for him to be drawn in the same side as Djokovic, who loses early to a big serving monster (Isner, Raonic, Dr Ivo), clearing the path for Andy to make the final, and for Nadal v Federer to be the other SF, held over till the Saturday and for it to go on longer than Isner v Mahut (OK, so that would make the final on Wednesday, but so what, if Andy's the only one able to move).

Dummy... I like that idea, but ever heard of a song by 'Go West' called 'King of wishful thinking'....I reckon that just about sums up that last bit of your post lol

dummyhalf, I am not saying that Andy is a basket case he obviously can handle pressure and has enough confidence to get to where he has gotten and to be a three time grandslam finalist. But my opinion is that he doesn't have that last bit of belief or mental maturity and focus required when he comes up against the best guys on the biggest stage. He has all the shots, and the talent in the world. And has shown that he is growing and maturing, in my mind its a matter of when Andy breaks his grandslam duck not a question of if.

Personally, as a Novak fan I would want Andy in Novak's half as well as opposed to Roger. Roger is still in my mind the best grass court player since Sampras and if he brings his absolute best and serves really well he can win this tournament again.