Favorites going into the Open!

1. Novak Djokovic: Novak has swept all before him, and in the past has had some success at the USopen having reached the final on two seperate occasions. Is this the year. Frankly, I think it is, over the course of five sets and playing on his favorite outdoor hardcourts I think clearly he would be most commentators favorite to win the title. The big question mark? How is he going to respond to being #1, sometimes it is hard to keep your motivation and focus with the added pressure and benefits of being #1. He has never had to deal with being the man before, lets see how the psychological aspects play out because he will be under a microscope.

2. Rafa Nadal: Probably entering his hardest grandslam in terms of getting the result. Nadal has some injury issues with the foot, some confidence issues having lost his wimbeldon crown. But he needs to win this US open if he wants to maintain touching distance with Djokovic. Nadal loses the US open and he could see another 1000-2000 point gap opening up with Djoko depending on whether Djoko wins or not. The big issue for Nadal is that we need to see Nadal of 2010 US open if he is to have any chance. Last year was the first USO final Big question: Can he replicate the aggression that he showed at the 2010 USO and the big serve that was winning him so many points in last years open.

3. Roger Federer: Roger has had great success at the open, after wimbeldon its been his most successful slam. Roger wants that last bit of grandslam glory will New york be the place. I think it shows how far we have come that we have to say this. But Roger needs a favorable draw and to serve really well to win this thing. I think if he has to beat both Nadal and Djoko to win the title that he probably won't be able to win. Frankly, if I was federer I would prefer Nadal's half. If Roger is going to beat Rafa in a grandslam you would think that his most favorable conditions would be the faster courts of New york were Rafa is never quite his most dominant.

4. Andy Murray: Andy seems to be hitting a ceiling in his career. He is not able to beat the big 3 in slams consistently enough to get that grandslam he so desperately wants. For Murray like the other greats he really needs to serve well. He has gotten to the final before in this event and plays well on the American hardcourts. The pressure is starting to mount with his grandslam quest, the questions if he fails in this grandslam to win will become rather overwhelming.

5. JMDP: I still think that Juan can do really well in this grandslam. Coming back from injury he has moved quickly to solidify his ranking and move back into the top 30 since coming back from serious injury. With his monster serve and flat groundstrokes his game is tailor made to this surface. It was 3 years ago that Del Potro broke onto the scene and won 4 straight tournaments on the American hardcourts to break into the top 10. The player he wants to avoid out of the top 4 is Murray who seems to own their matchup. I think Juan would love most to be in Nadals quarter. If JMDP is in Nadal's quarter that could be a real tough matchup for Nadal.

socal - please PM me again - I did *a yummy* and
deleted your message by mistake

I agree with your favourites, but would add Tomic as a dark horse.

One thing we are sure to be guaranteed, a Novak Federer semi-final

Yes, I agree that listing the top 4 seeds accurately identifies the favourites. Adding the resurgent 2009 winner is also reasonable.

Nitb, now that Novak has bloomed it will be interesting to see if he gets Roger again. If the USO wants a guaranteed Roger/Rafa matchup, and because the USO has stupid saturday where you have weekend ratings with the men semi on saturday, I am prediciting here an now Roger will be in Nadal's half. Economic conditions at the USO actually now favor (judging Novak's form) Roger being put in Rafa's half, you know where my money is. Because the economics and the matchups now favor roger-rafa in the semis, Roger will be in Rafa's half.

Tomic presents some interesting issues, I don't think he will actually be a real threat to any of the real contenders. What I would really look out for is who gets JMDP in their 4th round. I think Juan would actually prefer Nadal or Fed, than Andy or Novak based on his history and the current form of the players.

Have to agree with the assessments there socal. With Djoko being World No.1, shall be interesting to see the seedings and whether Nole will be the number 1 seed. The hardcourt season commences August 4th with Washington 500. With Toronto and Cincinnati on the heels of that, I can't wait to see who will have the form and momentum heading into the US Open.

I don't think Del Potro will want to avoid Murray, quite the opposite.

Murray has been beaten by power players quite a lot in Grand Slams and there isn't a power player as good as Del Potro about.

Due to the injury Del Potro suffered I don't think we got to see much of a rivalry between the two after Del Potro had arrived in the big time.

I did think Del Potro would go on to dominate mens tennis, he still might.

Guest, for whatever reason Murray has a very good head to head with del po, i think he has only lost once in six meetings. I think its murray's change of pace and variation that actually give del po a bit of problems. Murray also uses the pace of del po's groundstrokes against him very well.

Del Potro is the favorite.

No one is as devastating as Juan Martin on the American H/Cs

well as always the top 3 are obvious, for the rest it's a raffle draw and a matter of *when* they will be beaten.

DP can never be considered the favourite you silly sausage...
hasn't moved on from his sole slam win, and his (one pace) style of play will be laughed at by the top 2...

Josiah Maiestas wrote:DP can never be considered the favourite you silly sausage...
hasn't moved on from his sole slam win, and his (one pace) style of play will be laughed at by the top 2...

Sure pal, lets see if your hero Djokovic can back up his wins next year, or it will be one big fluke.

Dude i don't even think Del boy has won a MS 1000 to go along with his only slam which just highlights how overrated he is he is good obviously but you need a plan B at this level and he just doesn't have one yet

Josiah Maiestas wrote:Dude i don't even think Del boy has won a MS 1000 to go along with his only slam which just highlights how overrated he is he is good obviously but you need a plan B at this level and he just doesn't have one yet

Tell you what, you go have your wrist operated on and see how long it takes you to recover.

Juan Martin is only 22 and already has a Major in his pocket.

Del Potro is the only man to ever beat Nadal and Federer in the same Major - not a bad effort.

If del P gets his fitness and hitting together, he doesn't need a plan B as he can wipe anyone else off the court. Hoping that he can continue to quickly climb the rankings so he doesn't have to meet the big boys comparatively early on in tourneys.

It's an interesting contest @ the USO this year, more exciting than Wimbledon in many respects because Djokovic has finally arrived and not only that, he's beaten Nadal in style and become World No.1. Add to the mix that both Federer and Nadal have won this slam before, with Nadal defending and it's quite an exciting prospect overall. Not to mention that right now, the slams are equally poised with Nadal on 2 slams and Djokovic on 2 slams. If Djokovic wins the USO, his domination this year would be complete and if Nadal wins, he's not down and out like many thought.

Although Murray has got to the final, I can't rate his chances for winning it as high. Equally although JMDP has won it before and has been improving I don't think he's yet at the form he needs to be, but if he performs strongly in Cinni and the Canadian Masters then I would put him down as a serious contender. His performance has not been strong enough this year to see him going beyond the quarters (perhaps the semis). If you look at his run @ tournaments in 2009, it was pretty strong, not just on hard courts but on clay as well but his performance @ tournaments this year has been positively limp in comparison with only 2 better showings, Indian Wells & Wimbledon. All of the rest have been seriously weak, back in 2009, of the grand slams and masters tour, he reached 6 quarter finals or better at the same stage, this year, it's just one. He's on his way back, but at the moment from what I can see, not enough to win it.

That leaves Djokovic, Nadal & Federer. Although the USO Final is exactly 2 months away, I think one of these guys will not reach the semi finals. I don't think it will be Djokovic, I think it will be either Nadal or Federer. For both of them, in terms of media narrative, a loss before the semi final would be a disaster. For Nadal, it would come on top of losing Wimbledon and now the USO, adding to question marks about if he can make the come back. For Federer, it would spark questions about how much longer he can continue but knowing Fed, he will ignore it, as he has so aptly done for the last year.

It will come down to who wins it, it will be highly significant for all the top 3, but probably most for Federer, as this is his last chance to win a slam this year, otherwise he approaches his first slamless year since 2002. It will be interesting if this brings out the best of his tennis to avert this fate or if he meekly accepts it, let's hope for the former. For Nadal, it will show he is still a strong contender and can still compete even with Djokovic around. As for Djokovic, it will show more of what we seen and cement his position at the pinnacle of the game.

Also will Tsonga be able to keep his good form up..?

Gasquet has been playing at a very high level lately and it took Murray to be serving well above himself to keep the frenchman at arm's length, then i'm hoping for a revival from Davydenko, can the russian destroyer have one last tilt at a slam? Certainly gave Roger a hard semi final a few years ago and was even a set and a break up against him last year despite not having a huge weapon..

Tsonga? You got to be kidding me! His hard court this year is worse than his hard court record in previous years. Beyond the hype, I don't see him going beyond the 4th round, he hasn't even got a good record @ the US, unlike @ Wimbledon and the Australian Open.

Well, Djoko has to start as favourite unless something really untoward happens during the two warm-up Masters 1000 events (injury or complete loss of form) - the only question really is how strong a favourite you make him. More than evens (i.e. winning more than 1 in 2 occasions)? Probably for me on his current form.

Nadal had a great tournament last year, but also was helped by the draw panning out for him (not his fault if the other big names don't make it through to play him). Also, quick hard courts are probably his least effective surface (still bloody good on them, but more players can challenge him than is the case on clay or grass). As such, I think he's only really joint 2nd favourite with Federer.

Roger: has a great record at the USO, but is not the player he once was. It's the question of whether he can roll back the years and produce good enough tennis to win. Unlikely but not impossible.

Murray - has underperformed for the last couple of years at the USO, following his breakthrough in reaching his first slam final in 08. The courts and conditions should suit his game, but he is still a long shot for the title, especially as he would probably have to beat 2 out of Djokovic, Nadal and Federer to take the crown. He can beat any of them on his day, but to take two consecutive wins in 5 set matches has so far proven beyond him.

Del Potro is still a bit of a wildcard - obviously is coming back towards his best form and has such a big game on these courts that he is very difficult to beat. It will be interesting to see how he goes in the MS events, to see whether he is really close to challenging to top guys.

It is difficult to see who else is likely to win the tournament - yes there are players like Tsonga, Berdych, Soderling and even Roddick who could have a great match and knock out one of the real superstars, but I can't see them stringing together the 2 or 3 big performances in a row that would be needed to take the title.

Good summing up there dummy_half.

I agree, Djokovic is the favourite, how much of a favourite can only really be determined once he completes the two American hard court masters before the USO. Same for Fed too.

Nadal has a reasonable record in those warm up events so we'll get a good idea of how he's coped with his losses but going on previous form, I wouldn't be surprised if doesn't make the USO Final.

The only situation I'd tip Fed to win is if he doesn't drop a single set en-route to the final (unless he plays Djoko in the semis or Nadal). If he doesn't, I recon he's favourite. He's got a better record of winning here % wise than any other slam (Wimbledon included), so this is really is his opportunity. He only just missed out last year's final, the year before he lost a close final and the 5 previous years he won it. An impressive record, which will take him to the semis at least, that's all I will predict.

I disagree lucius that Fed has as good a chance at the USO as he does at wimbeldon. I think hardcourts are the favorite surface of most of the best players on tour and for this reason the hardcourt slams have more serious contenders for the title than wimby and RG.

I think with Del Potro, people are saying that when he is on nobody can stay with him. I don't think Del Po is as tough a matchup for Djokovic or murray as for Nadal and Fed. I actually think that while it would be a tough match that Murray and Novak have pretty dominant head to heads with del po with most of the matches coming on a hardcourt.

socal1976 - I don't think Murray or Djokovic faced Del Potro much when he was on his run that won the US Open. I remember him running out of gas against Murray in a Masters Series.

Any H2H from before then is when Del Potro was young and developing. Any since and he has been recovering from a serious injury. It has taken Nadal and Djokovic to knock him out of the last two slams. Both of them in four sets.

Any H2H from before then is when Del Potro was young and developing. Any since and he has been recovering from a serious injury.

oh dear, making excuses for the Terror of Tandil doesn't bode well on you...you seriously think DP isn't recovered yet? looked fine against Nadal and still didn't have enough...

Well socal, the facts speak for themselves, for the last 5 years, his record @ the USO has been better than @ Wimbledon. He at least gets to the semis of the USO Open, which for Wimbledon he is finding hard to do. Unlike most of the favourites your referring to, Federer has won 5 USO, which means he's certainly a cut above those competitors you're referring to.

The last two matches he's lost @ the USO were both close, against Djokovic he had match points, against Delpo, 2 points away from victory. That's a measure of how close/good he is. The facts speak louder than you're view that it's got more competition. As I've said before, the USO/hard courts have always had more competition, yet Fed still won 5 and he's still got close to winning it. Plus, what you seem to forget is that his hard court record over the last two years has been better than his Wimbledon/RG record. That's just a fact, so of course I think his chances are good, it's grounded in the facts!

Josiah Maiestas wrote:

Any H2H from before then is when Del Potro was young and developing. Any since and he has been recovering from a serious injury.

oh dear, making excuses for the Terror of Tandil doesn't bode well on you...you seriously think DP isn't recovered yet? looked fine against Nadal and still didn't have enough...

At least Del Potro can proudly say he beat Federer in a Slam final, Djokovic can't

yeah ok...he has beaten the swiss once in a slam but Novak has done it 3 times.

We can use injury excuses forany of our players, but it still remains that Novak is a better player then DP (has he ever lost to him?)

Josiah Maiestas wrote:yeah ok...he has beaten the swiss once in a slam but Novak has done it 3 times.

We can use injury excuses forany of our players, but it still remains that Novak is a better player then DP (has he ever lost to him?)

Juan Martin is two years younger, he's has plenty of time to beat Djokovic. Whether Juan Martin beat Federer once or 100 times, did he not win?

Novak is better than JMDP. Juan was playing great on clay this season an Novak knocked him out of the 3rd round of RG. Juan is tough no doubt, but murray and Novak to a lesser extent seem to have the hex on him. Juan has been on tour since he was 17 he is an experienced player eventhough he is young. I think now that Novak has broken through it will be an interesting battle between Juan and Murray to see who will be the next new #1.

Josiah Maiestas wrote:

Any H2H from before then is when Del Potro was young and developing. Any since and he has been recovering from a serious injury.

oh dear, making excuses for the Terror of Tandil doesn't bode well on you...you seriously think DP isn't recovered yet? looked fine against Nadal and still didn't have enough...

I don't think he has recovered fully from his injury yet. He didn't quite have enough against Nadal or Djokovic but he's getting closer to the level he was at before the injury.

I don't really need to make excuses for a slam winning, 22 year old multi-millionaire.

socal1976 wrote:Novak is better than JMDP. Juan was playing great on clay this season an Novak knocked him out of the 3rd round of RG. Juan is tough no doubt, but murray and Novak to a lesser extent seem to have the hex on him. Juan has been on tour since he was 17 he is an experienced player eventhough he is young. I think now that Novak has broken through it will be an interesting battle between Juan and Murray to see who will be the next new #1.

If Juan Martin hadn't missed almost all of 2010, then he may well have added to his US Open title.

Juan Martin at his very best would dismantle Djokovic

LeBron's Homie wrote:

socal1976 wrote:Novak is better than JMDP. Juan was playing great on clay this season an Novak knocked him out of the 3rd round of RG. Juan is tough no doubt, but murray and Novak to a lesser extent seem to have the hex on him. Juan has been on tour since he was 17 he is an experienced player eventhough he is young. I think now that Novak has broken through it will be an interesting battle between Juan and Murray to see who will be the next new #1.

If Juan Martin hadn't missed almost all of 2010, then he may well have added to his US Open title.

Juan Martin at his very best would dismantle Djokovic

Del Potro would not dismantle either Djokovic or Murray as both would have him running all over the place.

Difference is they are two of the top returners of serve which makes a big difference to then constructing points.

Hence their h2h against him 4-0 & 5-1.

Murray wouldn't be any threat to a peak Del Potro. Murray often gets blasted of the court by the heavy hitters, Cilic springs to mind

LeBron's Homie wrote:Murray wouldn't be any threat to a peak Del Potro. Murray often gets blasted of the court by the heavy hitters, Cilic springs to mind

Really - so that's why Murray leads him h2h 5 - 1 the same as he does with Del Potro.

sportslover wrote:

LeBron's Homie wrote:Murray wouldn't be any threat to a peak Del Potro. Murray often gets blasted of the court by the heavy hitters, Cilic springs to mind

Really - so that's why Murray leads him h2h 5 - 1 the same as he does with Del Potro.

But then that;s like saiyng that Murray is bettre player than Fed which clearly is a joke.

No Josiah the only joker is you!

Do they have tennis courts in Gaza sunshine?

Looks like i've again encountered the angry sportslover, touched a nerve did i?

Jósíah

Looks like you talking rubbish again JM. Murray is a better player than Del Potro. Simples

well when they play each other he is better, buuuuuut atleast DP has the balls to prove himself against the big guns when it matters most.

Buuuuuut nothing. 1 slam wonder at the moment.

it's becoming a case of the "Female Wozniacki" the way he manages to disappear in the biggest moments of slams though...wouldn't you suggest LK?

not winding you up just as i and others have been seeing it..

My question is this.....both he and Murray have had severe wrist injuries. Murray has progressed since and reached a GS final little than a year after recovering. Del Potro thus far hasn't.

Wouldn't say Murray 'disappeared' if the other players play much better nothing he can do about that I'm afraid.

LeBron's Homie wrote:

socal1976 wrote:Novak is better than JMDP. Juan was playing great on clay this season an Novak knocked him out of the 3rd round of RG. Juan is tough no doubt, but murray and Novak to a lesser extent seem to have the hex on him. Juan has been on tour since he was 17 he is an experienced player eventhough he is young. I think now that Novak has broken through it will be an interesting battle between Juan and Murray to see who will be the next new #1.

If Juan Martin hadn't missed almost all of 2010, then he may well have added to his US Open title.

Juan Martin at his very best would dismantle Djokovic

Not a chance my friend. Novak returns anyones serve and that includes Juan's. Juan has a great first serve but the good returners can get at his second serve. Novak is faster, has a better backhand, a better return, and more variety. Juan has a better first serve and forehand. Matchup wise I don't think this a good matchup for juan.

As we have seen when Novak is even playing remotely well he can win any of the biggest titles of the sport. As much as I like and respect Juan and his talents, can't say that outside a single 2 week period in 09 that he has made a real impact on tour. I think Juan will get there, but on current form you are talking about him beating Djokovic or beating him one month at the US Open. I think Novak would win that match, although it would be tough. Again something like we saw at RG 4 tough sets, maybe 5. But when he has to Novak will get that Del Potro second serve.

2 faves for USO have to be Nole and Juan Martin. Its hard to see past them two, JMDP is a monster at the Open.

lydian - just no

Form is temporary/class is permanent

What i mean by that is DP hit a purple patch in 09 and is now sitting nicely at just outside the top 4...won't be a favourite for the US imo.

I am a fan of McEnore but found his comment at Wimbledon 2010 "Nadal is the defending champion" quite disrespectful, I wonder if he will say the same about Juan Martin Del Potro in September. I have a feeling Federer is going to take it this year beating Nadal in the semis a long the way as well (if he gets on his side of the draw again!)

CAS, if I was Roger at this point I would prefer to be in Nadal's half and not Novak's half as well. Interesting how far we have come that we actually would make a statement like that. But I honestly believe that playing Rafa at the USO would be Roger's best chance to beat Nadal in a grandslam again. Nadal doesn't play as well at the open. Roger loves the surface and I actually think Rafa is due for an earlier round upset at on of these grandslams, and if someone is going to get him before the final it might as well be Roger. I think Roger views the open as his best surface in a match up with RAfa.

Yeah I agree Socal, quite incredible that two players considered two of the greatest of all time have never played there despite Federer winning the tournament 5 times. It just highlights the fact how amazing yet strange their rivalry actually is.

CAS, well Nadal just never played well at the open till last year. The open is a bit quicker than Indian Wells and miami, where Nadal is a bit more consistent and successful. But last year he played exceptionally. Roger has been there waiting for him at the final but until last year Nadal hadn't figured the surface out. If Roger plays well I could see him winning the USO, I still think his best chance at another grandslam is wimby. I kind of feel like both Novak and Rafa, could be in for a semi or quarter exit at this tourney. Less so Novak than Rafa. Both guys have been in such a grind basically playing the final of pretty much every event they have entered this year. Could be an opportunity for murray or fed.