Favorites going into the Open!

First topic message reminder :

1. Novak Djokovic: Novak has swept all before him, and in the past has had some success at the USopen having reached the final on two seperate occasions. Is this the year. Frankly, I think it is, over the course of five sets and playing on his favorite outdoor hardcourts I think clearly he would be most commentators favorite to win the title. The big question mark? How is he going to respond to being #1, sometimes it is hard to keep your motivation and focus with the added pressure and benefits of being #1. He has never had to deal with being the man before, lets see how the psychological aspects play out because he will be under a microscope.

2. Rafa Nadal: Probably entering his hardest grandslam in terms of getting the result. Nadal has some injury issues with the foot, some confidence issues having lost his wimbeldon crown. But he needs to win this US open if he wants to maintain touching distance with Djokovic. Nadal loses the US open and he could see another 1000-2000 point gap opening up with Djoko depending on whether Djoko wins or not. The big issue for Nadal is that we need to see Nadal of 2010 US open if he is to have any chance. Last year was the first USO final Big question: Can he replicate the aggression that he showed at the 2010 USO and the big serve that was winning him so many points in last years open.

3. Roger Federer: Roger has had great success at the open, after wimbeldon its been his most successful slam. Roger wants that last bit of grandslam glory will New york be the place. I think it shows how far we have come that we have to say this. But Roger needs a favorable draw and to serve really well to win this thing. I think if he has to beat both Nadal and Djoko to win the title that he probably won't be able to win. Frankly, if I was federer I would prefer Nadal's half. If Roger is going to beat Rafa in a grandslam you would think that his most favorable conditions would be the faster courts of New york were Rafa is never quite his most dominant.

4. Andy Murray: Andy seems to be hitting a ceiling in his career. He is not able to beat the big 3 in slams consistently enough to get that grandslam he so desperately wants. For Murray like the other greats he really needs to serve well. He has gotten to the final before in this event and plays well on the American hardcourts. The pressure is starting to mount with his grandslam quest, the questions if he fails in this grandslam to win will become rather overwhelming.

5. JMDP: I still think that Juan can do really well in this grandslam. Coming back from injury he has moved quickly to solidify his ranking and move back into the top 30 since coming back from serious injury. With his monster serve and flat groundstrokes his game is tailor made to this surface. It was 3 years ago that Del Potro broke onto the scene and won 4 straight tournaments on the American hardcourts to break into the top 10. The player he wants to avoid out of the top 4 is Murray who seems to own their matchup. I think Juan would love most to be in Nadals quarter. If JMDP is in Nadal's quarter that could be a real tough matchup for Nadal.

It all depends on the draw, who has the toughest semi (especially if the toughest is the second of Super Sat), but contenders for me have to be:

1. Novak - if he is well rested and gets the breaks, it is hard to look beyond him atm. Especially imo because he was not looking hugely impressive at W in first few rounds compared to Roger and Rafa, but he peaked just at the right time.
2. Roger - ok, it is sentiment that makes me put him above the other two, but if he is lucky and draws 1st semi unlike previous two years, the fast surface suits him perfectly and his pedigree at the tournament means it is impossible to overlook him. Need to see Canada and Cincy to see where he is at. My heart says he can, my head says he will run out of gas in the SF.
3. Juan Martin DP - I am putting him above Rafa because of the fast surface and because I think that RG and W showed him rediscovering some form. Especially impressed at W where he has never moved well and where Rafa was overwhelming favourite to beat him on that surface. When he won, his forehand was beyond brutal - he will need to find that again, if his wrist is still physically capable of producing that lightening response.
4. Rafa - because you can never overlook him and his form can look disappointing for it all to come good very quickly. Negatives for me are how he seems to be coping with Djokovic resurgance and he seems to lack some of the passion and enjoyment in his game atm.

Dark horse - Murray - he gets the breaks and finds the courage to seize it with two hands - no other contenders for me

Interesting that you view a Del Po that is still not a 100 percent as a bigger threat than murray. Roger to me can win this slam, but I think it will be too big of an ask to have him have to beat Nadal and Djoko on back to back days. I really he needs to see one of the big 2 above lose before they meet him in the Semis and finals.

I probably agree with that view socal, I think there's a good chance of that happening. Also the USO is the last slam of the year and might add more impetus for Fed as well the fact that many players find it hard to maintain their form going into it compared to the other slams.

No one has mentioned Soderling as a dark horse, who can be a beast to handle on HC. Last two USOs it has been Fed handling him. It should be some one else's turn now.

The one to watch for me: JMDP. If he'll be able to continue on the path to full recovery, I have got the feeling that he can become the next big thing on tour, after the Djokovic's explosion.

socal1976 wrote:Interesting that you view a Del Po that is still not a 100 percent as a bigger threat than murray. Roger to me can win this slam, but I think it will be too big of an ask to have him have to beat Nadal and Djoko on back to back days. I really he needs to see one of the big 2 above lose before they meet him in the Semis and finals.

I think Murray is a far better player socal, but I just don't know he has the total belief anymore to take it all the way - of course it is chicken and egg, and once he does the sky could be the limit, but until then I think for me he is a semi finalist, barring melt downs on the way - would be so delighted to be proved wrong though

Delpo has done it, and if he gets deep, and if things swing his way - knowing you have can make the crucial difference.

PS totally agree with you about Roger btw - I think Novak/Rafa back to back may be a set too far nowadays

Yes, good points timeplease, it will be interesting to see if Murray can finally slay the grandslam demons. I believe he has the talent but on the other hand he just isn't as good as the 3 players rated above him. This may be the toughest era to come up with a slam victory if he came up in the late 90s and early part of 2000s it wouldn't have been this tough. Many more one slam wonders in that time period.

As for Federer, I think this season that one of the top 2 will lose quarters or semis. Both guys have been on a gruelling streak where they play the finals of virtually every tournament they enter. Nadal especially has foot issues and is more susceptible on the American hardcourts. Novak as well has a big target on his back and we don't know yet how he will respond to be the hunted.