Predictions: Over-under in terms of weeks at Number #1 for Nole.

Now that Novak is in his second week at number 1, it will be interesting to see how long he can maintain his grip on the tennis throne. I propose a game to all those willing to participate. Lets see whose predictions are closer to what actually takes place. How many weeks consecutively will Djokovic remain number #1. When his reign at number one ends then I will go back and bring this thread up to see who is the big winner, the big prediction octopus of this website. Djokovic obviously will be in danger next season early in the year as all he can do is lose points Roland Garros. Yet, by the end of this year Djokovic could have a big lead, similar to the huge lead Nadal enjoyed at the onset of this season. Yes, Nadal lost his massive #1 lead but the gap in points was so large that it took Novak 7 months of literally winning everything to overtake Nadal. The frightening part for Djoko is that Nadal will actually have a lot of points he can win on clay and at the AO to cut into Novak's lead. But if Novak is consistent and Nadal lets say loses form or has an injury there really is no one else in striking range except Roger, but it would take months of great play to overtake him and Fed hasn't shown the consistency. Is Novak going to just get his 15 minutes of fame and be done with it? Or is he going to go on one of those epic #1 runs like Connors, Lendl, Pete, and Roger?

My prediction: 104 weeks he loses the world #1 ranking at wimbeldon of 2013.

Hmm, hard to disagree with W 13 being the term. There's noone coming through strongly enough to depose him immediately.

You need different answers though, so I'll bet on some injuries holding him back and losing it after the USO '12. What's that, about 64 weeks?

Yes it is very tough to predict these things in the long run because no one can predict when or how someone will be injured. But looking at those ranked behind him I don't see a serious threat outside of the big 4. There isn't an earthshaking young talent that is darting up the rankings and threatening at big events. Nadal, is the biggest threat but between the end of the year and now most likely the 2000 point gap between him and Novak will increase and not decrease as I can't see Nadal repeating at the USO and he does have some foot problems. Roger is still great and can have great tournaments and great runs of play but he isn't the roger of 07 and 06 it is difficult to replicate those performances. I think if Novak gets to Roland Garros next year and is still #1 then he will have a long run at #1, assuming good health. But the big danger area for him obviously will be the beginning of next year. The Australian all the way through Rome and Madrid will most likely be a part of the season that his lead will shrink. You figure he needs a 3000 point gap between himself and Nadal at the start of the season to be safe till mid year at wimbeldon. But I think he has Nadal worked out and Fed isn't getting better so he looks pretty safe. The gap is healthy right now and should grow till the end of the year if he keeps playing reasonably well.

Well it surely going to be 52 at least...plus maybe another 6 months...78!

He has a huge numbers of points from January till the start of clay season. His points in French Open and Wimbledon are nothing which a Fed or Nadal or even a Murray cannot match.

So, to me, he has a huge advantage till about May next year. Since I dont think, he will necesaarily remain the best player in the world and also raking up most points necessarily from now on, I would think that either Fed or someone new would be the No. 1 going into FO. So that is what, closer to 46 weeks?

This depends on how badly Tomic wants to dispose of the top dogs, cause if he wants it bad like Hewitt did, then I can see him taking on Djokovic many times in MS1000 and GS.

YE 2011. After that AO 2012 is when Novak has his work cut out.

All things being equal, I can see Nole carrying his ranking well into 2013.
For him, the main thing is to maintain his form and pile on those slam trophies

All very interesting predictions, everyone talks about the number of points Novak has to defend. But one of his top rivals has to go out and win all those points to close the gap. Lets remember that Nadal had a huge gap, he lost that lead but it came after on guy won everything for 7 months. I think it depends a great deal on how Novak finishes out the year. He wins the US open and WTF we could be talking about an even bigger lead than what Nadal had last year. What is amazing is that Novak took the #1 ranking from Nadal at wimbeldon and could have had it at RG. Considering that most of Nadal's points came from the clay court season to the USO. This is has left Novak in a strong position to increase his good sized lead right now. Because for the rest of the year he still has less points to defend than Nadal.

I'll go for a year at N1,that is quite a long shot!

A year is a good prediction Jeremy especially if Novak struggles early next season and can't repeat at the AO. He would then virtually have to repeat at wimbeldon to retain the number even assuming he played well at the other events. So lets put Jeremy down for a 52 week prediction.

I'm pretty sure he'll remain World No.1 till the end of the year. There are a lot of unknown variables about Djokovic, one of the chief ones is how comfortable he is being at World No.1 and the second @ defending his titles next year. As I've observed with his peers, Nadal has been rather poor at defending titles away from clay whereas Federer has been very comfortable defending titles across all surfaces, so the question is, how will Djokovic fair? He's never experienced this level of continuous success, so what will happen when there's less of it? These are unknowns for now and will decide just how long he stays as World No.1.

If Djokovic carries on having a superb year has he has thus far and wins the USO, WTF and another ATP Masters (or two instead of the WTF) then I think he's a lock down for No.1 until after the American hard court season, even if he loses the Australian Open or Wimbledon (but not if he loses both). I'd say he'll be No.1 for 60 to 70 works, longer if he wins the USO and retains either the Australian Open or Wimbledon next year.

The most important unknown regarding Djoko his actually is fitness. He is very fit but he does cover lots of ground and does stretch a lot. How long can he do that without having to pay the bill?

That's one I forgot about, fitness. I think he can keep it up for at least a year, he is a year younger than Nadal and his fitness issues, although they reoccur from time to time, aren't the same as they are for Nadal, who's missed 2 grand slam events compared to Djokovic who's missed none over a comparable period of time.

We'll get an idea of how much his game impacts his performance during the American hard court season. If he wins the USO, perhaps not too much, but you never know.

Novak is very durable, has played an average of 80-90 matches each of the previous 4 seasons. He hasn't suffered any type of long term chronic issues like a back or knee that need constant maintenance. After Roger, Novak has been the healthiest and most injury free of the other players.