Manu Samoa will have to battle on two fronts

Have Manu Samoa really got what it takes to qualify for the knockouts? Do the IRB really want them to?

The Samoans recently blew Australia off the park in their one-off warm up. Against a somewhat reduced (it wasn’t completely second string) Wallabies side. (How many of the Wallaby side that day have made it into the RWC 30?)

However, can Samoa sustain such a forceful game over four pool matches scheduled over a much shorter recovery time frame than some of the bigger nations?

Why do New Zealand, the hosting nation, with all its inherent advantages and who have effectively two full-strength teams to field compared to say the likes of Samoa, get more and/or better spaced recovery time (23 days in total) than their “minnow” pool opponents Tonga (22), Canada (18) or Japan (17)?

South Africa seem to have got a short straw with only 19 days of recovery time between their first and last pool match, but their opponents, Samoa, join the likes of Russia, Namibia and the US on only 16 days. Wales and Fiji benefit from 21 and 22 days respectively.

It’s also interesting to look at the recovery time some teams have prior to a key pool match compared to others e.g. NZ v Fra have 8 and 6 days. Tonga v Japan have 5 and 7 days. England have their tough matches bookending their easier ones. Ireland has 7 days of recovery before they play Italy who have only 5.

Manu Samoa play Namibia on 14th, then Wales four days later, Fiji after seven days, and then SA five days later again who will have had an extra 3 days of recovery time.

An analysis of the pool match schedule looks like this:

Pool A
New Zealand 9th, 16th, 24th, 2nd: 7 days, 8 days, 8 days – 23 days of recovery between 1st and 4th match
Tonga 9th, 14th, 21st, 1st: 5 days, 7 days, 10 days – 22 days
France 10th, 18th, 24th, 1st: 8 days, 6 days, 7 days – 21 days
Canada 14th, 18th, 27th, 2nd: 4 days, 9 days, 5 days – 18 days
Japan 10th, 16th, 21st, 27th: 6 days, 5 days, 6 days – 17 days

Pool B
Argentina – 10th, 17th, 25th, 2nd: 7 days, 8 days, 7 days – 22 days
Scotland – 10th, 14th, 25th: 1st – 4 days, 11 days, 6 days – 21 days
England – 10th, 18th, 24th, 1st: – 8 days, 6 days, 7 days – 21 days
Georgia – 14th, 18th, 28th, 2nd: 4 days, 10 days, 5 days – 19 days
Romania – 10th, 17th, 24th, 28th: 7 days, 7 days, 4 days – 18 days

Pool C
Ireland – 11th, 17th, 25th, 2nd: 6 days, 8 days, 7 days – 21 days
Italy – 11th, 20th, 27th, 2nd: 9 days, 7 days, 5 days – 21 days
Australia – 11th, 17th, 23rd, 1st: 6 days, 6 days, 8 days – 20 days
Russia – 15th, 20th, 25th, 1st: 5 days, 5 days, 6 days – 16 days
US – 11th, 15th, 23rd, 27th: 4 days, 8 days, 4 days – 16 days

Pool D
Wales – 11th, 18th, 26th, 2nd: 7 days, 8 days, 6 days – 21 days
Fiji – 10th, 17th, 25th, 2nd: 7 days, 8 days, 7 days – 22 days
South Africa – 11th, 17th, 22nd, 30th: 6 days, 5 days, 8 days – 19 days
Samoa – 14th, 18th, 25th, 30th: 4 days, 7 days, 5 days – 16 days
Namibia – 10th, 14th, 22nd, 26th: 4 days, 8 days, 4 days – 16 days

If Manu Samoa make it through to the quarters, they’ll deserve extra praise working against such inequities.

You need to have two midweek games in every pool, with 2 games on every one of 4 weekends to make 10. Normally it is 3rd Vs 5th and 4th vs 5th (in terms of seeds), in which case Samoa wouldn't be able to have any complaints. However, I don't know why South Africa have been moved to midweek.

There is nothing surprising though, in my opinion, about Samoa having 2 games in a week.

How much recovery time do Manu England have?

if one looks at just one perspective of the pool play it is very easy to imply that one team is adavantaged or disadvantaged over others.

If you look at the travel requiring the busting up camp, travelling and setting up camp again,it could be argued that different teams then have advantages over others.

If one looks at travel....
Southafrica set up camp,then have two games in Wellington, bust camp , travel then have two games at Albany.

OR
Tonga, one game in Auckland ,bust camp,2 hour bus ride to Whangarei,where they play their remaining 3 games.

And suggested disadvantaged ;
Ireland.A game in New plymouth, travel and play up in Auckland, travel and play in rotorua, then travel to the bottom of the South Island for a game in Dunedin..

What carries more value a days rest or a days travel?

Yeah weekends are what get the crowds and therefore income. NZ also play first so that combined with must play on weekends mean they get the longest I suppose.

I dont think its a biggie. Theres not a lot of travel. NZ played 3 3N matches between 6/8 and 27/8 (20 days rest) and that was one in each country. For the lower teams recovery will be needed as they'll feel the hits more and will do more running...

nottins_jones wrote:How much recovery time do Manu England have?

Taylorman wrote:Yeah weekends are what get the crowds and therefore income. NZ also play first so that combined with must play on weekends mean they get the longest I suppose.

I dont think its a biggie. Theres not a lot of travel. NZ played 3 3N matches between 6/8 and 27/8 (20 days rest) and that was one in each country. For the lower teams recovery will be needed as they'll feel the hits more and will do more running...

Yes but with the top ranked/wealthiest nations teams games all on weekends to increase tv coverage and ticket sales, those teams still have a massive advantage in recovery time over less wealthy, less highly ranked sides.

Very unfair.

The IRB mustn't let this happen again if they wish to see a global game of equal opportunity to all competing nations.

nottins_jones wrote:How much recovery time do Manu England have?

Exactly the same as as bychan Lloegr.

nottins_jones wrote:How much recovery time do Manu England have?

Dont know, but Wales have enough to allow Toby Faletau to pop and see the family in Tonga

Manu did well for Manu England today. Finally you've managed to poach a backline player that can actually do the basics; which means it'll take up until the Scotland game for him to be figured out and become yet another in-effective back.

Namibia actually play Wales 4 days after playing South Africa, so hopefully they will put a reserve side out against us. Hopefully they wont want to get humiliated in their local derby with South Africa. Namibia will know Wales will rest their best players for the game with them.

AlynDavies, Namibia may want to front up in this world cup, but sadly they won't. They took part in our Vodacom cup tournament that runs parrallel to the super XV, The Puma side Las Pampas played in it as well, they went through the tournament unbeaten and won the final where as Namibia got slaughtered in the tournament, now this tournament is our lowest quality tournament.

So you can be safe in the knowledge that it shouldn't matter who they select.

They may surprise, but I doubt it.