AP Round 1

First topic message reminder :

Team Sheets and tactics due by COB Thur
Predictions open Fri. Results due Sun/Mon

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London Irish 23-27 Harlequins

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Tries: Daniel, Basson
Penalties: Dupuy (3)
Conversitions: Dupuy (2)

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Tries: Marler, Henry, Morahan
Penalties: Steenson (2)
Conversitions: Steenson (3)

Leicester Tigers 31-18 Exeter Chiefs

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Tries: Poitrenaud (2), Waldrom, Fritz
Penalties: Walder (3), Miller (1)
Conversitions: Walder

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Tries:
Penalties: Myler (4)
Conversitions:
Drop Goals: Myler (2)

Saracens 27-19 London Wasps

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Tries: Spence, Visser, Narraway
Penalties: Humphries (1), Goode (1)
Conversitions: Goode (3)

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Tries: Wilson
Penalties: Gopperth (4)
Conversitions: Gopperth

Newcastle Falcons 39-23 Bath Rugby

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Tries: Evans, Maitland (2), Vermulean, Ojo
Penalties: Evans (2)
Conversitions: Evans (4)

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Tries: Beatie, Allen
Penalties: James (2), Hodgson (2)
Conversitions: James (2)

Northampton Saints 32-29 Gloucester Rugby

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Tries: Messam, Geraghty, Siviatu (2)
Penalties: Giteau (2)
Conversitions: Giteau (3)

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Tries: Gear, Coonie, Johnson
Penalties: Donald (4)
Conversitions: Donald

Worcester Warriors 18-30 Sale Sharks

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Tries: Chabal, Malzieu
Penalties: Robinson (2)
Conversitions: Robinson

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Tries: Cruden, Crane, Masaga, Freuen
Penalties: Cruden (2)
Conversitions: Cruden (2)

Driver - RIP 606 wrote:- If TOL has no form because he has been left at home then I hate to think how poorly Jauzion and Fritz must have been playing to be left at home.

Jauzion played every game for Toulouse in the run-in as they won the Top 14, and scored a try in the opening game of the season last week.

Don't blame Jauzion and Fritz for Lievremont and his mistakes!

I've seen those too. I think Grant finished top but only played 3 games or something.

Cooper was at 8% Steve, 3% up on last season

I bet he cries into his S15 and TN medals every night.

Wonder who's more satisfied, Carter with his kicking percentage or Cooper with his winners medal

I think Carter has a few more winners medals to be shining then Mr Cooper somehow Steve mate

Yeahh but not this season. King Cooper very much victorious

I remember checking them before the playoffs. off top of my head:

Grant 85%
Cruden 80%
McAlister 76%
Carter 79%
JOC 75%
Cooper 70%
Slade 60%

Looks about right

Sorry not Slade 60%

The Blues FH, can't remember his name. Slade didn't register 15 kicks with injury

Brett?

That's the one!

Lambie was over 80% off the tee last season.

Those were just ones I remember Pete, think Lambie was 80% before injury

I'm going to have to take a day off to read tactics!

Once Bath and Saints get their tactics in, are predictions open?

We will look to forge an advantage at the Breakdown. We will look to get more bodies in the ruck, clearing out the opposition and gaining turnovers or winning back possession of our own ball. We will play a blitz defence. We feel this defence puts pressure on Newcastle forcing them into a mistake and we will target Brad Barritt a lot.

When attacking Brock James will use look to spread the ball wide looking to get our back three running at Newcastle especially Pretorios. Our forwards will occasionally put in a shift down the middle looking to make sufficient gains. James will look to take any points on offer. We will look to bring on Monye + Guest at around the 50 minute mark hoping they can have a big effect against a tired team.

Saints Tactics:

In what promises to be a really exciting game Saints go into the game full of confidence and have picked a team with pace that will look to challenge a new defensive unit from Gloucester.

We are playing at pace, attacking a Gloucester unit that will not know its defensive patterns fully this early, espc. with so many first team players away. Speed will see gaps, and with our backthree we will score tries.

SET PIECE/FORWARDS:
Our front row has played together for three seasons, knows each other inside out and provides a formidable scrummaging unit, especially with the second row. The weather conditions make for great attacking rugby, so will be concentrating on getting the ball out of scrums quickly to our powerful and dynamic backrow.

We have picked a very strong backrow to help marshall Charlie Davies – we feel it has more experience, power and dynamism than its Gloucester counterparts and will be looking to put pressure on Gloucester’s own inexperienced no9. (should also note that Davies has played 10 games for Stade Francais, before anyone says he isn’t experienced etc).

In the lineout we are happy with our options of Attwood, Taylor, Kankowski and Messam, all of whom have international experience (Attwood at Saxons). A lot of the Gloucester options do not have this level of experience and have not featured much for the first team in recent seasons. We will look to exploit this.

(Also important to note is that Domingo, Webber and Hayman played a lot of games for Saints last season and formed a frontrow that has won its last 4 games in pre-season – we are on form).

Targeting the breakdown and rucks – we will look to use our more dynamic, powerful and faster backrow at the breakdown and will target rucks as an area we can gain dominance over Gloucester. We will look to generate quick ball and use our fast pack to build up phases of play and put Gloucester under pressure. Messam, Lapandry and Kankowski is a serious unit that should outgun Gloucester and allow us to target their Lewis throughout.
We have also gone for a 5-2 split of forwards on the bench to keep up this high intensity throughout – and are looking forward to giving Launchbury his debut and have Calum Clark (top turnover player in the AP last year) and Watson to come off the bench and continue to run Gloucester off the park.


BACKS

Charlie Davies is making his third start for Saints, and we have chosen to play him behind an experienced pack, which is full of leaders and captains (Webber, Hayman, Taylor, Messam, Kankowski, Watson etc) and next to Giteau who is one of the most capped Aussies of all time.

We are going to heavily target Donald in today’s game – he has played second fiddle to Carter since he joined and has very little game time in competitive fixtures. This will cause Gloucester’s backplay to be very stagnant, especially as most backsmoves will stop in the 12-13 channel. We do not see Tuitopu or Molenaar being able to release the backthree.

We are hoping that Gloucester will kick the ball to our backthree – if anyone has seen Cipriani and Wade attack loose ball then you will see how dangerous they are. (seriously youtube Wade – we have our very own Shane Williams there!).

BACK PLAY

We have chosen a team that will look to take advantage of a Gloucester backline that has one (maybe two) first team players – we have gone for Giteau, Geraghty and Cipriani who can all step into the 10 shirt and change the point of attack. We have got Lualala and Siviatu who can smash through the gainline and will also use Messam, Kankowski and Taylor to carry the ball through the midfield.

We will attack what we see as a fairly slow Gloucester midfield, which lacks pace and creativity – which is the opposite to ours. Giteau, Geraghty and Cipriani will cause mayhem and put a lot of our players through holes in a team that has rarely played together.

With 15 minutes to go we will bring on Mason, where we will ask him to cause a disruption job like he did for the BaaBaas against Wales (two amazing offloads to create tries).

KEY POINTS
* A lot of our team has played together for many seasons, knows each others game inside out and will target a Gloucester defensive unit that has rarely played together – all of our players have played first team rugby and importantly played competitively together.

* We will be looking to play extremely quick, attacking rugby, mixing up points of attack and pushing the ball out wide at every opportunity – with Lualala and Siviatu used as battering rams.

Chris, not picking on anything. I've just noticed you've put this a few times:

"Calum Clark (top turnover player in the AP last year) "

Where did you get this stat from and have you a link? It would be interesting reading seeing the top turnovers in the AP as it's something I've never been able to find. I'm not saying he wasn't, but I'd be pretty surprised if Clark was top as he wasn't a regular for Saints.

Saracens by 50+

London Irish 19 18 Harlequins

At scrum time I see Quins with the advantage here. I can’t see Irish getting clean ball to Rush or Dupuy with the quick in/out method used by the Reds and can see a few penalties going Quins way today. At lineout time both sides have plenty of options and can’t see tactics that would particularly disrupt either side.In terms of mobility in the front 5 both sides have it in spades. Mumm makes a big difference to that Irish front 5 carrying wise compared to their summer game combos. In the back row battle Irish have a better balance to them and Fourie will have some success at the breakdown. Quins looking stronger in the ball carrying department though for me.

At halfback Irish have a shade more class for me. Slightly stronger at both 9 and 10. In the backs there is more quality in the Irish midfield but don’t think Basteraud really fits the Irish tactics of trying to get it to Basson and Kirchner in space. Can see a lot of attacks fizzling out in midfield till JMH comes in and Bowden moves to 12. In the back 3’s for attacking threat Irish are ahead for me. Quins combo fit the game plan perfectly though. On the bench based on most recent form Brits and Vermack could offer some real impact for Quins.

Interesting game here. Can see Quins causing a lot of problems at the scrum and Irish getting an upper hand at the breakdown. Both sides will get some decent ball for themselves. Would expect the Irish half backs to make better use of it. It will be a tight game though as Quins are set up perfectly and can see a lot of Irish attacks fizzling out in midfield till the subs come in. Irish scrap this one by the skin of their teeth

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Leicester Tigers 23 17 Exeter Chiefs

In the scrum I see Tigers slightly ahead here but not so much as to really get on top of the Exeter scrum. They will be pretty damn strong on their own feed though and will get good attacking bases. At lineout time both sides are capable of poaching each others ball with some good jumping options so no advantage here. In the back row Tigers are slightly stronger man for man and have a better balance to them. Can see them getting an upper hand at the breakdown here.

At half back, its actually fairly even for me. Not much in it at 10 and while TOL is lacking form and top service at 9 the Chiefs forward territory orientated game plan will suit him. In the backs, Classy midfield combo from Tigers. Not far of the top first choice combos in the league and they give Tigers an edge while the back 3s also shade to Tigers. Think they would do very well with these counter attacking tactics. Luke raises a good point on the lack of game time for this particular Chiefs backline and cohesion may be a problem on attack for Exeter. On the bench not many great impact players but for overall quality Tigers are stronger.

With cleaner ball here today, some well suited attacking tactics and home advantage Tigers to pick up the win.

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Saracens 19 15 London Wasps

I can’t see either side getting particularly on top at the scrum through the first 60 or so minutes but like the Sarries targetting of Nieto and can see some joy here for Sarries in the last quarter. At the lineout both sides have decent jumping options and should be able to do enough to secure some good platforms. Good backrow battle here between two well-balanced units. Sarries are stronger on the flanks but Wilson the stronger 8 on show. Sarries edging for quality and with some truly detailed tactics Sarries have an edge here.

At halfback Wasps are stronger in the game controlling stakes overall but Sarries a step up in attacking threat. Big strong looking backline from Wasps that will put in some defensive shift but more creativity and form from the Sarries line up. On the bench McAllister on his day is a real impact player to bring in but Sarries have the better quality in the pack to bring on.

I see Sarries with more cleaner ball here and on the front foot in this one. Wasps will look to play in the right area’s but with rough ball and no will creativity can’t see them really breaching the Sarries defence. McAllister will have an impact but Sarries will have the pack to keep a strangle hold on the game in the final 20 minutes.

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Newcastle Falcons 28 18 Bath Rugby

Can see an advantage here at scrum time for Newcastle with an impressive set of props. Think they could well get on top of Bath here. At lineout time great options for Newcastle and can see them pinching a few Bath balls Kicking for the corners will work well here for falcons. In the back row Newcastle shade it for quality and will get on the front foot but Bath are capable of turning over a few balls.

At halfback, Newcastle stronger with a good combo for me. Grindal won’t provide great service on the back foot here. In the back line better form overall from Newcastle although Allen and TNW in good form for Bath. Newcastle with an edge in quality as well. On the bench Charlie Hodgson is the main impact player on show. Both benches with a lack of experience which evens itself out.

Newcastle on the front foot here and with a strong backline on show will pick up a good win against a Bath side lacking detail in their tactics.

Northampton Saints 21 18 Gloucester Rugby

A lack of form for the Saint props stops them from really getting an advantage at the scrum and Glaws will get some success here in the last 20 minutes. At the lineout I can’t see an advantage for either side with both having plenty of jumping options but no real destructive option. The Saints front 5 as a whole has a bit more to offer around the park and in the rough of the breakdown. Coonie is the star on show though in this area. In the back row both units are well balanced. AJ offers the best carrying on show but Saints are much stronger on the flanks for me.

At halfback I have Glaws edging slightly. On current form there’s not really a lot between the 10’s on show but Lewis is the stronger 9 on show. In the backlines its good to see Glaws looking to the wingers getting involved and coming infield as that midfield combo won’t get the ball out to them. For Saints there’s some defensive issues in the back 3 and at 12 but ball in hand they offer a great threat and have the quality to get in behind Glaws. On the bench as above think the Glaws front row could get some serious joy in the last 20 minutes. Lamb will offer a spark for Glaws while Mason will bring a good carrying game for Saints.

Good game here. Saints have a bit of an edge in the back row and will see some more front foot ball but the Glaws back 3 getting involved and Donald looking to target the Saints back 3 defensively will see some success. Saints edging it for overall quality though and should pick up a narrow win.

Irish 17-22 Quins
I see the quins pack dominating here with Rush struggling off a pack going backwards. When it comes down to crunch time the Quins bench will see them home.

Leicester 24-18 Exeter
Home advantage and an overall stronger side wins this with Luke having one of the strongest w.c sides. I don't rate Nacewa on the wing much though.

Sarries 20-16 Wasps
Sarries home advantage gives them extra points and with the addition their long range kickers they will win. Wasps' pack will give them a scare though and have been build up well.

Newcastle 28-20 Bath
Newcastle stronger all over. Bath's lack of tactics (love the centres but how are they being used? And when is Hodgson going to be used) adds more to the loss.

Saints 21-20 Glos
Both teams drew 10-10 when it comes to how I predict and it was simply down to home advantage that the win went to Saints.

Irish 22 - 21 Harlequins

Big gain for Quins up front for me. Slight edge to Irish in the second row. Nice back rows on show, edge for me to Irish. Half backs to the home side with a bit more class, but I prefer the combo Quins have out at centre. Not much form in either back three. Overall bench to Irish, but the introduction of Brits will cause havoc. Irish's advantage in the back row and HB's a big sway, but Quins set piece and Brits impact takes them very close.


Saracens 24 - 21 Wasps

Not a lot of give either way up front or in the second row. But Sarries' back row is as strong as it gets during this period, and although Wasps have some strong players, they would be outplayed. A lot more inventiveness from Sarries back line, but Wasps big and strong and not easy to play against. Sarries back row and creative back line sees them having enough at home.


Newcastle 26 - 18 Bath

Homes side take the advantage up front, not a fan of the Bath front row. Tighter in the second row, but better combo from Newcastle. Back rows close with Smith's lack of form costing him, and a nice unit from Bath. Bit more class in the HB's for Newcastle, centres close with a nice combo for Bath, Newcastle edge back three. Home side have that bit more quality all over the park.


Saints 22 - 22 Gloucester

Difficult to call the front row battle, not sure there is an advantage either way. Slight edge to Saints in the second row, with Gloucester edging the back row. Very slight edge to Gloucester in the HB's, but not enough to make a difference. Prefer Saints' centres (too soon for Molenaar IMO) but Gloucester's back three very good. Really tough to call, Gloucester back three causing damage, but Saints back row stopping quick ball. Sitting on the fence, sorry.


Worcester 19 - 21 Sale

Not a lot of give up front with both TH's doing damage. Slight edge to Sale in the second row, not a lot in the back row (too soon for Crane IMO) either. Edge to Sale in the HB's with some top form, and give them the advantage in the centres too. Strong back three sees Sale on top there. Think Sale just have that bit too much for the new boys, but the home side will give their all and run them close.

Leicester v Exeter
- Tough start for Exeter away at Welford Road vs who many believe could be Champions. Think Tigers will get a good platform upfront, and have a good back row to secure good quick ball. Not convinced by Tigers halfbacks but Jauzion at 12 will help out and they have some dangerous players to score tries. Exeter have a solid backline and a steady 10 in Myler, but think away from home they dont have enough to overcome Tigers power.
25-21

Saracens v Wasps
- Tough one to call, good battle upfront and can see a couple of pens for both sides in scrum. Wenztel v Borthwick will be a good, tight battle with the back row's also close, JVN the standout for me. Wasps lack a bit of creativity until Mac comes on and can see them finishing strong. Sarries don't really have a 'game changer' on the bench but two good kickers in Farrell and Homer to get them in the right area's on the pitch. tight game but at home Sarries nick it.
18-17

Newcastle v Bath
- At home, see the Falcons getting the upper hand up front and allowing Pretorius and Evans to thrive in the backs. Barritt and Payne doesnt massively inspire me but it is still a strong WC combo with two very dangerous wingers outside. Brock James will get Bath in some good area's and kick his goals but don't think they have enough class in the backs to break down a solid Falcons outfit enough to win.
28-23

Northampton v Gloucester
- Saints take the front five for me with some good power and experience. Backrows are hard to separate and both will play their part. Giteau v Donald is a close battle and both backlines have plenty of pace to cause problems for defences. Can see a high scoring game here but can't pick a winner.
32-32

Worcester v Sale
- Warriors look to have a powerful and hard running line up, which is needed to match a very powerful Sale team. See Sale getting stuck in upfront and getting an edge to allow Care and Cruden to get good ball. JTH and Freaun is a little too similar for me but Freuan on good form and with Cruden pulling the strings will shine. Strettle and Masaga great options outwide and will get joy out of Cuthbert and Drauniu. Peel/Robinson is a good combo but think the centre combo needs bit more creativity.
20-24

Here we go then!!!

London Irish 25–25 Harlequins

I see Quins getting a good nudge on their own scrum with a solid front row. Similar with the lineout with Quins having more options and see them giving Irish issues at the set piece. I prefer the Irish backrow, has a lovely balance. Can see Dowson driving Quins forward though, although not convinced with their 6 & 8 against the Irish pair. 2 good settled packs though with an edge in the front 5 for Quins.

Bit more for Irish at halfback in both positions but can imagine Steenson pulling the strings nicely behind his strong front 5. Can’t separate the centre pairing, if Tait was in any kind of form at 13 I’d sway with Irish but I do like that Quins combo, think it’s a great combo for the harder pitches. Tiny edge in the wings for Quins but 2 good pairings, Blair really suffers though with not playing for a year and this gives Irish a little edge.

I put a fair bit on home advantage but just think Quins have enough to fight Irish to the end and snatch a draw.

Irish MOTM – Hendrie Fourie
Quins MOTM – Matthew Rees

Leicester Tigers 20–18 Exeter Chiefs

No change up front in a tasty scrum battle. If Leicester had a half decent tighthead they’d have really troubled the Exeter front row. Cracking engine room battle too, I really like the Exeter pairing and although not the pedigree of the Leicester pair they’ve got a good game for the conditions and some decent form behind them. I think the Leicester pair is very well matched also, great front 5 battle and numerous jumpers that will secure own ball. I like both backrows, prefer Waldroum at 8 where he can come off scrum but pretty effective at 6 and Lund gives a good balance. Same for Exeter, Skirving is underated and a dog around the park, thats a serious wet conditions backrow and will give the Tigers unit a cracking battle.

Exeter just edge the halfbacks. TOL is a proven Int and will form a nice combo with Myler. Big fan of Young also, he could be great for Luke if he starts the season well. Leicester have the edge in the centres with some class, Jauzion has def slipped but is a very good player esp at this level. I really like King at 12 giving Myler a playmaker and think the King/Hipkiss axis could be dynamite. Hipkiss’s lack of form costs Exeter a little but can only improve. 2 lovely back 3’s on show, Biggs slightly the weak link in a quality Tigers unit and Fitz needs a little bit more time to settle in although I agree a weeks training will be a good start.

Great start for both sides, Exeter have some serious quality in their side but just not enough in the pack to take Leicester. Can see them giving some top teams a shock though.

Leicester MOTM – Isa Nacewa
Exeter MOTM – Gareth Delve

Saracens 21–20 London Wasps

Stronger scrummaging unit from Wasps with some big units, can see them getting a little edge on their own scrum and the odd Sarries one but nothing game changing. Engine room just sides to Wasps around the park but more options for Sarries in backrow. Cracking backrow battle with 2 very nice units, think Sarries have a bit more at 6/7 but Wasps bit of an edge at 8. Cracking pack battle.

Halfbacks very tight and two totally different styles. Wasps stronger scrum will give Gopperth some pen chances but a little more flair for Humps, think Claasens edges Hodgson in this type of game. Huge Wasps centre partnership that will have a little too much power for the Sarries pair I think and fit nicely into Arry’s power game plan. Much more in the wings for Sarries though and see some joy coming from this avenue.

Thats a very strong away side for Wasps and they’ll really give Sarries a tough game.

Saracens MOTM – Joe van Niekerk
Wasps MOTM – Jimmy Gopperth

Northampton Saints 25–23 Gloucester

Edge in the scrum for Saints which is evened a little with the hooker battle, Domingo holds a fair bit of class imo. Not much in the engine rooms withj Attwood just been the standout although not by a great deal. I like Robson but don’t think Taylor is a second row and costs Saints getting an advantage. Backrow is shading to Saints with them a class above on the flanks and pretty even at 8. Messem is much more effective at 6 and will give Deacon a real game.

One a piece in the halfback with Lewis shading Matthews (who’ve I’ve not seen much of but is seriously lacking gametime at level) and Giteau a fair bit stronger then Donald. I think Matts targeting of Matthews would work to an extent but not sure his backrow has the quality to make it a game breaker, nice tactic though. Matthews lack of quality will certainly hinder Saints. Not a big fan of Gereghty at 12 but the Saints combo has a bit more about it that the Gloucester pair (strong defensively but lacking a little in attack) Also Molenaar is marked down due to just moving clubs and I don’t think he’s have an understanding of the team play, esp in midfield. Not sure the Saints pair would work away from home though. Back 3 to Gloucester. See Sivi giving JSD a bit of a run around but Gear would absolutely murder Wade, this is one of the biggest mis-matches I’ve seen for a while. If Gloucester had a slightly better centre combo this would be a game breaker, big plus point though still.

A cracking game and some very good points from both managers. If Gloucester had a better backrow and midfield they’re gameplan would come off a tee. Saying that Saints have a good pack at home, esp backrow which is key in these conditions. I see them keeping the points ticking over and Gloucester desperately getting the ball to their back 3 esp gear on Wade. Saints just have enough but will need to strengthen in key positions away from home.

Saints MOTM – Liam Messam
Gloucester MOTM – Adrian Strauss

Worcester 18–23 Sale

Great upfront battle just siding to Sale, Marconnet at TH is a good call for prop though and he’ll anchor well. Class above in the engine room for Sale though with prob the strongest pairing of the WC teams, will give Sale a little edge in lineout with some good options for Worcester in backrow. Too early for Crane at for me and this will hinder Sale slightly, I like a good understanding between 8/9/10 and see that Johnny has stated he’d play a simple game from Crane. See it being a really good backrow battle anyway.

Cracking HB contest with 2 quality pairings. HB’s do the damage in the summer months and see both units playing well. I do like the Worcester midfield but not 100% with Malzeui at 12, think this might hinder a few Worcester attacks whilst Sale have a good settled unit that might exploit defensive misunderstanding. Sale back 3 just has that little bit more quality too.

Tight game but Sale have the edge, especially in the backline. They’ve got enough in the pack to really go at Worcester and see them shading the win.

Worcester MOTM – Martyn Williams
Sale MOTM – Aaron Cruden

Will get predos in later lads.

Time to call it a day for the week

Keep the predictions coming lads!
Midday tommorrow is the cut off if you want your weekly bonus

Leicester 22 - 22 Exeter

This is a very close game and if Leicester had stronger half backs than they would have won this. I like both packs. Leicester are big and have a stronger front row but I like both back 5's and can't separate them. Both sides have some very decent lineout options.

I see a real advantage to Exeter at Half back and this has a big impact on the game. Myler for me is an upgrade on Walder and TOL is far superior to Young. Both sets of outside backs are strong with a bit of an advantage to Leicester.


Saracens 17 - 19 London Wasps

I think the scrum will be even with perhaps a slight advantage to Wasps as I really like Nieto and think he would have Mullan going backwards. I disagree with pete's suggestion that Nieto could go backwards when he is tiring as I don't thinkeither Waller or a tired Mullan would get any real gain especially with Robinson coming on against Swainston. I think both sides will win there own ball with Borthwick and Wentzel both lineout specialists. I really like both back rows and would give a slight advantage to Wasps as Johnson and Wilson were really superb last season. I do feel Saracens will have the upper hand at the breakdown ans will get more turnovers than Wasps. Smith is the right player to suit there tactics of choosing when the turnover is on.

I'd have the scrum half's as about even with both doing there job well without adding any real zip to the game. To very differing 10's. Humprheys will challenge the Wasps defence more than Gopperth but Gopperth will kick well out of hands and both are suited to the tactics.

The centres I give to Wasps. Downey is as gooder crash option as there is in this league and will really test the 10 12 channel and I think he will cross the gain line regularly. Mortlock will have no problem handling Spence with his experience and also gives Wasps another great kicking option. I can't see many holes appearing in the Wasps midfield.

Saracens have the stronger back 3 with some dangerous runners but I wouldn't consider Wasps to be weak. Gopperth's kicking from 10 will test the positioning of the Sarries back 3. kicking behind Ranger could get joy.

Both benches could be stronger but both have some decent impact. It's close but I think Wasps have all the ingredients for a huge opening day scalp

Newcastle 23 - 18 Bath

I am not a fan of either front row. Lindsey needs to sort his throwing not be seen as a weakness. Scrums will be pretty even. Lineouts also even but the Newcastle backrow is excellent and I don't think Robinson and Armitage in the same side will work.

I like both sets of backs but Grindal is the main weakness on show. I've seen Jarred Payne be very inconsistent but at his best is very good so will need to see how he goes at Ulster.


Northampton 32 - 30 Gloucester

Both front rows are strong but I see the advantage going to Saints and I also think Saints have the better back 5 of the scrum. Lineouts will be pretty even but overall I think Saints are stronger.

Backs are tough to call. Lewis is the better of the 9's and Giteau's is the stronger 10 but not by much. The Gloucester centres are very solid whereas Saints have more of a exciting look to them. I think Giteau and Geraghty will find the lines of Laulala which will be a good outlet. Geraghty's defence could be a weakness.

Both back 3's run hot and cold with Hosea Gear being the strongest player on show. Gloucester do have the advantage here.

Try fest.

Worcester 15 - 18 Sale

Worcester have a hardened unit and this helps to make up for Porter who is a weakness. I see a pretty even contest at the lineout and the breakdown. Sale have the stronger pack overall.

Sale have a very good back line but I think Worcester would be very strong defensively in the backs but Sale would still get through. Love the battles of the 9's. Care in great form but Peel the best in the British Isles by some distance when he's at his best.

Both benches are pretty strong and this would lead to a could last 20 mins.

Irish 20 Harlequins 20
Saracens 15 Wasps 14
Newcastle 29 Bath 23
Saints 22 Gloucester 20
Worcester 15 Sale 20

Will give reasons tomorrow morning lads , but i'm busy getting sorted to go away sunday!

My Predictions for this round.

Just to let you know, I will not be doing the random thing having had a good think about it this week, and having thought lots about it, I will be putting more emphasis on the whole 23, as opposed to the just the starting XV, than I have done in previous seasons, as it is definitely a 23 man game these days. And as a reminder…

LDCPete wrote:Right guys

4. Tactics - The tactics deployed must be suited to the players you have on show and the playing conditions. It is no good playing as an example James Downey/Jon Clarke as your midfield and having tactics that say 'we are going to play an open expansive game with our centres throwing the ball around and using their pace on the outside to get beyond the defensive line'. I will mark down if your tatics clearly cannot be executed by your players. I will also mark down heavily, if your 'tactics' are solely telling how great your players are and how poor the oppositions players are. By all means highlight a specific weak area for your opponent and how you will attack that weakness, but I will be the judge of how good/bad I think a player is.

So here goes…


London Irish 13 Harlequins 19

I don’t see this one being a high scorer, as looking at the backs of both sides there are some players with very little form. Irish have form in the back 3, but not sure how much ball they will see due to a midfield that has not had a great 12 months.

Slight advantage to Irish at home for me, and being round 1 neither team has any momentum, so no gain to either side there. Looking at the teams I see the scrum being quite messy, with neither team really gaining much advantage, but I see Quins as having a bit of an edge in the lineout until Kennedy comes on for Irish. Irish halfbacks have more spark, but Quins have more consistency and will get them into the right areas of the pitch.

Tactically both teams have selected teams to execute their gameplan, although I see a slightly better balance to the Quins side with the ability to vary their play a bit more than Irish.

I also see the Quins pack as being more rounded and likely to have the upper hand, which for me is a big gain for them. Also looking at the benches, Quins have so much impact with almost weveryone able to come on and inject something into the game. Close low scoring affair with Quins sealing it late on courtesy of their bench


Leicester Tigers 26 Exeter Chiefs 18

Advantage Tigers at home, and no momentum either way so no gain to either team there. Chiefs have got their tactics right, to be grizzled and try to grind things out, my worry is where the points will come from to get them the win. TOL has no form at all, and Myler is functional without necessarily being able to ignite a backline.

Having said that, I don’t see Walder as likely to set the world alight with flowing back play, and I can see this being a reasonably dour game, with plenty of 3 pointers on offer for both sides.

Not a lot in it in the packs, but I would give Leicester the back row, which would give them a bit more go forward ball to use. Neither bench would change the game for me, although you never know with Caucau, but home advantage and a slightly stronger pack see a comfortable Tigers win for me.


Newcastle Falcons 35 Bath Rugby 27

Slight home advantage for Falcons, and neither team has any momentum yet. Neither hooker is convincing for me, but I have to have Falcons ahead with the props. Second row is even for me , and the back row is a great battle with contrasting styles. Robinson and Armitage could be very dynamic, but my one reservation is they would need their front 5 to give them a little bit more of aplatform than they would get here.

Halfbacks go to Falcons for me, especially as I think they would get a decent amount of front foot ball. In the backs, some great attacking talent in both teams, although a few question marks about one or two defensively, moreso for Bath, means that I see this being a high scorer. Decent balance to both sides, but overall I think this game is won in the front 5 by Falcons. Had Bath’s front 5 been stronger I would have it much closer as I think this would have brought their back row into play a bit more, but as it is it’s Falcons to take an open, high scoring game.


Northampton Saints 32 Gloucester Rugby 33

Home advantage for Saints and no momentum for either team yet. For real life form I think I would have Gloucester slightly ahead, with the likes of Coonie, Strauss, AJ and Donald straight off the back of excellent S15 seasons, although Messam and Kankowski for Saitns have also shown up well in that competition this year.

So on to tactics, and I am going to quote some from Saints.

“In the lineout we are happy with our options of Attwood, Taylor, Kankowski and Messam, all of whom have international experience (Attwood at Saxons). A lot of the Gloucester options do not have this level of experience and have not featured much for the first team in recent seasons. We will look to exploit this.”

I am glad you are happy Chris, but this is not telling me what you are going to do at the lineout. Just saying you will exploit their inexperience does not tell me anything.

“Targeting the breakdown and rucks – we will look to use our more dynamic, powerful and faster backrow at the breakdown and will target rucks as an area we can gain dominance over Gloucester. We will look to generate quick ball and use our fast pack to build up phases of play and put Gloucester under pressure. Messam, Lapandry and Kankowski is a serious unit that should outgun Gloucester and allow us to target their Lewis throughout.”

Again, I still don’t know how you are going to generate quick ball. Are you flooding the breakdown with bodies, or getting a fetcher in their quickly or what? All you have done here is tell me where you think you are better than Gloucester, that does not tell me how you are going to play.

As per my comments last week on how I will predict, which I have reposted above, I have to mark you down for these ‘tactics’ Chris, and I feel bad doing it as it seems as if you are being picked on this week, but I have to be true to what I have said previously.

Again, looking at the balance of these teams I see this being a high scorer, with lots of good attacking talent on show, but some defensive deficiencies in both teams. I have Gloucester slightly ahead in the pack which is a big thing for me, and give them the edge in the tactical battle. The question I ask myself is whether that advantage is enough to cancel out Saints being at home, and the answer I come up with is yes by the narrowest of margins.


Worcester Warriors 25 Sale Sharks 25

Slight home advantage to Worcester, and they have a really functional and well balanced pack out there for this one. They also have a very good half back pairing, and a big set of backs. My only concern is a lack of guile from 11-15.

For Sale they have a pack that can compete in all aspects of forward play, but question marks over the form of Neil Best certainly. What they do possess is arguably the form half backs in the league, along with a set of backs that would still be competitive here even after the World Cup players return.

Both teams have tactics to suit their players, and this would be a close game in my mind. This has been the biggest struggle for me to call, as I am a firm believer in the pack winning matches and I like the balance that Worcester have from 1-8. They are also at home which is in their favour, but in my mind I can’t get away from some of the outrageously brilliant rugby I have seen Cruden play in recent weeks in the ITM Cup, and here he has even better backs outside him to cause real damage to the opposition.

Sorry boys, I hate doing this, but as I say, I am struggling to call it. Maybe if Sale had a slightly stronger player than Tialata at 3 I would see them getting more joy targeting Porter, but as it is I don’t think they will quite get enough of an advantage there to make it count so it’s a draw for me.

Pete - not sure why you are singling me out for things like lineout jumpers and targeting the breakdown? Lots of other people give less detail than that?

Just eating dinner then predicting!

At the start of the season I place a lot more emphasis on the backline combinations, how they will work and make the most of the running rugby conditions - this will be until the mud sets in and then the packs come into their own. Of course if a pack can generate more ball for its backline then this will have a big bearing on the game.

London Irish 32 - 30 Harlequins -

high quality game, both packs will be really competitive. See the Quins bench making more of an impact late on, with Brits really swinging things - think it was a mistake to start him on the bench this early on in the season. Would always play him ahead of Rees. I think the Bowdon, Bast, and Tait midfield is the winning combination - dont see too many players who can get over the gainline for Quins. Can see Tait excelling alongside Bast and Bowdon's passing. Could have been different if Brits' started!

Leicester Tigers 27 - 25 Exeter Chiefs -

humdinger of a game, think the thing that really stops Leicester flowing is having Walder as their '10' - he's a good club player, but is always a backup flyhalf for a Premiership club in real life (that from a Wasps fan!) - think that could stop Tigers winning key matches, but the rest of the team is capable of dominating lots of teams, not so sure on subs bench. Driver has really picked a team that will cause Leicester to dig deep, like the O'Leary/Myler 9/10 - and the pack is really strong. Tigers have a bit too much in mid and their backthree will score tries!

Saracens 18 v 18 London Wasps -

Sarries have the edge in the pack, think Arry is going to struggle in the backrow whilst he doesnt have someone better than Wilson. Sarries will win the backrow battle with their 6,7 and 8. The issue I am finding with Sarries and I think this will be an issue for sometime is that their 12 and 13 are going to get bullied, Downey and Mortlock are going to smash seven bells out of them - really need an experienced head there, or at least in the backthree - lacks leadership apart from Paul Hodgson. Goode, Visser nor Ranger are leaders and Sarries can get bullied big time here. Could have been a Wasps away win if it wasnt for JVN, Smith and Narroway. Gopperth kicks all Wasps points.

Newcastle Falcons 37 v 34 Bath Rugby -

Newcastle are such a strong team, that team would be pretty darn hard to beat outside of the WC, let alone during it! Think Evans is going to be one of the most important players over the next two months. In truth it could have been a bigger score, but its first game of the season and its going to take teams at least 3 games to get flying and there will be mistakes. This is why I think Bath will get a lot of points as they have such speed in their backthree - possibly would have started Monye. One issue for Newcastle might be lack of impact subs on the bench? Bath have got Hodgson, who can change a game very quickly - think this will get them points last 20mins.

Worcester Warriors 19 v 20 Sale Sharks -

This was by far the hardest game to call, so many ifs and buts - I dont think having Porter in the front row does Worcester any good at all, Sale will target him and get on the front foot with a very powerful front five. Though I've seen that Crane has only just come into the squad and will struggle to fit straight in, so cant see them making the most of that advantage. Worcester have the best 9/10 combo during the WC, which will also balance out the forward issues, more threat in the Sale back three too. SJE would start Barkley and Nick Ab. think they would really get that backline causing some damage. Prop - good team, think you just need to tweak Porter and then find a match winner in the backthree!

Bit harsh on Wilson for Arry Chris no?? One of the form 8s of the premiership over the last 2 years. Think hes a cracking number 8...

Was going to say, Wilson along with Waldrom and Joubert was in my eyes one of the best number eights last season. He was on fire!

Not saying he's a poor player by any means - I like him, just in this game Waldrom and Joubert wouldnt be considered the best players at their clubs etc. Wilson doesnt get in the Ireland squad - just preferred the Sarries backrow.

But hes definately one of the better 8s around on current form for the world cup period. Just thought it was harsh saying "think Arry is going to struggle in the backrow whilst he doesnt have someone better than Wilson" when hes as good as anyone else on show during the world cup

Irish 19-21 Quins
Think Steve has the better set of forwards and his attacking tactics with the ball in hand will do him well. I don’t think Basteraund is playing like he can which leaves Irish backs struggling .Both can make impactful substitutes. Just don’t think Irishs backs steal it.

Leicester 18-13 Exeter
Can’t see Exeter turning over any of the Tigers ball and I think Leicester with their carrying options and better set piece will have more possession.

Saracens 22-21 Wasps
I think the set piece is close. Wasps possibly have the slight edge and Benn Robinson coming on counteracts the fact that Nieto can’t be replaced. Not much in it at the line out either. Although I think Wasps would be effective in getting over the gain line I don’t think they have the spark that Rene Ranger for example could produce.

Gloucester 26-28 Saints
Gloucester’s back three is deadly but Saints have an incredible world cup team and I think it will a little too much for Glaws.

Worcester 15-20 Sale
Sale seem to have a touch more quality especially in the backs and grab the win.

Will do explanations tomorrow, going out now.

London Irish 18 - 19 Quins

Leicester 19 - 15 Exeter

Newcastle 25 - 22 Bath

Gloucester 32 - 35 Northampton Saints

Worcester 18 - 22 Sale Sharks

dammit_chris wrote:Pete - not sure why you are singling me out for things like lineout jumpers and targeting the breakdown? Lots of other people give less detail than that?

Just eating dinner then predicting!

Chris, I could do this for every match but it would take forever and use up loads of space, but in relation to the two points I quoted in your tactics, the breakdown and the lineout, here are how London Irish and Harlequins have described their tactics…

London Irish

“We are really going to target the breakdown as we see it as an area we can get some joy. Fourie will be our main man to target the turnovers, and we will look to punish Quins and counter attack Quins should any turnovers come our way. We will be sensible about going for the turnovers as we dont want to give away needless penalties. If Quins are looking isolated and the turnover is on, we will go for it. If not, we will commit men to look to slow down Quins ball and stifle any momentum.”

- Tells me how they are going to operate at the breakdown.

“At the lineout, we will look to secure our own ball with Botha being the main target but Rush, Daniel and Mumm all providing good options. Early in the 2nd half Kennedy will come on for Botha to provide us even greater options in the lineout and to disrupt opposition ball.”

- Tells me Botha is their go to man, and Kennedy will try to disrupt when he comes on.


Harlequins

“We are going to look to compete at the breakdown but only when we have superior numbers or have the first man there.”

- Tells me they will only compete for the ball if they have superior numbers a the breakdown.

“We have 4 very capable jumpers in Gaskell, Thion, Lund and Dowson and we will compete for every single Irish lineout. We want to build pressure and not give them anything easily. On our own ball we will look to shorten the line and have Dowson and Henry in the midfield running lines.”

- Tells that they will compete on every Irish throw, and will use short lineouts on their own throw with forwards attacking the midfield.

As opposed to yours…

“Targeting the breakdown and rucks – we will look to use our more dynamic, powerful and faster backrow at the breakdown and will target rucks as an area we can gain dominance over Gloucester. We will look to generate quick ball and use our fast pack to build up phases of play and put Gloucester under pressure. Messam, Lapandry and Kankowski is a serious unit that should outgun Gloucester and allow us to target their Lewis throughout.”

- Tells me that you think your back row is more dynamic and powerful than Gloucesters and are a ‘serious unit’ and therefore this is an area you can gain dominance and quick ball, but does not tell me how these players are going to generate this quick ball.

“In the lineout we are happy with our options of Attwood, Taylor, Kankowski and Messam, all of whom have international experience (Attwood at Saxons). A lot of the Gloucester options do not have this level of experience and have not featured much for the first team in recent seasons. We will look to exploit this.”

- Tells me that you rate your players and don’t think Mats have played much so because yours are more experienced you will be better than them. Does not tell me how your lineout will function.


Can you not see the difference here mate? It drives me mental, you have a good team, just tell me how they are going to play, not how good they are or how many games they’ve played for Stade, who quite frankly had an atrocious season last year. It's not about how much you put, it's what you put.

How many more to predict SJE, only Mat by my reckoning???

Yep Pete mate! The tension is killing got a few tight ones this week

I hate the wait when there's only one left.

You got a spreadsheet to do the results?

Yeah mate... Dont laugh... Already have a spread sheet with templates laid out for every league game this year... Boring accountant I know!

Mate, I did the same last season, Microsoft Excel was a godsend.

Im not as boring as I thought so!! Have the match threads for league games and anglo welsh group stage already done up. Just have to do conditions for the games each week!

London Irish 19 - 21 quins had this a draw and then joke advantage kicked in. Agree with people that rush will struggle. Personally I think he is finished. Good balance to Irish and Quine. 2 sides to fear pre wc

Saracens 19-18 wasps. Think Pete will get slayed in the front row. Tactic of pressurising nieto Is nonsense as mullan is average at best and nieto one if best th in the world. Brok not the greatest prop either. Arry has 2 serious props and they will butcher saris. However apart from half backs i prefer Petes team and they will win. I am so unconvinced by humphries and think gopperyh much better but in these conditions and with home advantage pete squeaks this. Feel arry has really lost out on selling mitchell. Even when wc players are back think he will struggle out wide

Leicester 19 - 15 Exeter Leicester are bang tidy this year and exeter improving. Tol lets Exeter down massively and has been horrendous of late. Exeter will cause many teams problems this year and are a credit to drivers management.




Newcastle 30- 22 Bath no stanks fan but Newcastle pack and half backs see them coast. I also think the back 3 of neecastle is nit the greatest particularly defensively. Think if maitland played for any othet team then we would think he was just a club player. Apart from that Newcastle so strong and if this was not first game of season would win by more

Gloucester 32 - 35 Northampton Saints

Worcester 18 - 22 Sale Sharks [/quote]

Used arrys template. Have 3 % battery score should be Worcester 12-21 sale explan later