World Cup upsets, which Minnow will do it this time?

Since the World Cup was created, we have often been treated to an upset or two in the tournament.
Samoa beat Wales in 1991 and 1999, Fiji beat Wales in 2007, Argentina beat France twice in 2007 etc.

So who do you think will cause the upset this time?

My first instinct would of been Japan, but their playing France first and New Zealand second, so it might be too much to ask of them.
I'm not really sure you can call Wales Vs Samoa or Fiji and upset anymore because Samoa have beaten Wales 3 times, and Fiji have a win and a draw.

For me, the three big options are Tonga against France, Georgia against Scotland and the outside bet is Fiji against South Africa.

Because my nerves won't stand it I am staying away from the Wales/Fiji/Samoa links.

But I do reckon Georgia will be a big tough nut to crack

Italy vs Ireland

The way Ireland are playing that wouldn't be an upset.I think Tonga could really give France a good game.

It could be any game especially if it's blowing a gale with horizontal rain.

dont want to start a ruck, but would Wales beating SA be called an upset??
Just got a feeling Wales will pull one out of this world performance and SA are going to be on the wrong end of it

Its the old cliche with France that you never know what team will turn up.

Lievremont just seems to big so random a selection of players who knows.

Knackeredknees wrote:dont want to start a ruck, but would Wales beating SA be called an upset??
Just got a feeling Wales will pull one out of this world performance and SA are going to be on the wrong end of it

I think it would still be seen as an upset yeah, not a major one maybe but we have such a poor record over them and let's be honest we should have lost to England heavier at Twickenham and in Cardiff if they had finished their chances.

We will have to have more about us than just defence on Sept 11.

Thomond wrote:The way Ireland are playing that wouldn't be an upset.I think Tonga could really give France a good game.

I really hope they do. It's probably the best game to get France being the last in the group, but how will Tonga cope at the end of a tough pool?

I would only class it as being a upset if there was a big gap between their world rankings.

I'm actually really looking forward to Russia, I will be supporting them in the World Cup.

Being Eastern European you kind of stereotype them as being a massive pack, with big scars from wrestling bears and huge beards, but to be honest their a brilliant team to watch in attack.

A few people may of heard that they have a "good winger" and whilst right wing Vasily Artemyev does look fantastic, his defence in flipping over that Canadian in the Churchill Cup game was nothing short of sensational, and he is a dam fine attacker that would get into the squad of every 6 Nations side, has signed for Northampton Saints. He did actually come through the Ireland system, which suprised me when I read it on Wiki, and he played for Ireland U19's before going back to Russia.

They also have a lot of good players, Full back / Left Wing Igor Klyuchnikov is probably better in attack, in fact watching him run rings round half the Dragons back line at Rodney Parade a few weeks ago was special.
Though he's not guranteed a place either because he's competing with Vladimir Ostroushko who is apparently known to be a quality player on the sevens circuit.

I read the name Denis Simplikevich who is a Full Back or center after reading an article about Russia competing in the Junior world Trophy, and having seen him play he looks a fantastic prospect.

The star of their pack is France no8 Viatcheslav Grachev who plays for Bizanos in France.

They also have Andrei Ostrikov who has recently signed for Sale sharks, and also have Adam Byrnes who plays for Melbourne Rebels, as their lock forwards.

If your going to back a minnow, then support Russia they seem to have a lot of talent, and a few Welsh boys in the coaching set up also.

Alyn,

Now that Kingsley jones is coaching Russia I am hoping that after the WC we may see a dog of a 2nd row or T/Head from there down at Dave.

Cymroglan wrote:I would only class it as being a upset if there was a big game between their world rankings.

How big?

Obviously that should be gap not game...

Wales Fiji is a big gap but wales South Africa is not.

bedfordwelsh wrote:Alyn,

Now that Kingsley jones is coaching Russia I am hoping that after the WC we may see a dog of a 2nd row or T/Head from there down at Dave.

Funny you should say that, the Dragons crowd really took to Sergey Popov their Loose Head, not because he was quality, but because he resembles Borin Johnson the London Mayor! He's not very mobile but I don't think many teams will push him about!

Cymroglan wrote:Obviously that should be gap not game...

Wales Fiji is a big gap but wales South Africa is not.

I don't want to get involved in this old chestnut, but Fiji have more recent good results against Wales than Wales do against South Africa.

We are talking about the world cup not past results.

But the iRB Rankings are a measurement of past results.

Ok maybe I should not have named teams and just said that it would be not be a upset if the gap between the sides was 3 or less world ranking poositions.

Every time wales meet SA we here the same old story, that this time they are going to beat us.

I suppose eventually it will come true.

Cymroglan wrote:

Wales Fiji is a big gap but wales South Africa is not.

Really ? I'm sure Fiji have a better record against Wales over the last 10 years than Wales have over South Africa.

nottins that does not change the fact there is a big gap in the world rankings.

But when i asked the question i was not thinking about ranking position more the history between the sides, as Wales have only beaten them once(please correct me if i'm wrong) ever, A wales win would be a bit of an upset

biltongbek wrote:Every time wales meet SA we here the same old story, that this time they are going to beat us.

I suppose eventually it will come true.

Why bother biltong? Boks have got nothing to prove against Wales. Mocking the chances of the underdog just seems boorish. If there are US fans on here talking up their chances against Ireland (crazy hypothetical situation, I know) we won't be ridiculing them for their belief in their team against the odds even though we're pretty confident the gulf in class is too much despite our misfiring form. Just seems cruel. You know you'll probably beat them, we know you'll probably beat them and the Welsh know you'll probably beat them deep down. Why rub it in? They have a right to dream.

biltongbek wrote:Every time wales meet SA we here the same old story, that this time they are going to beat us.

I suppose eventually it will come true.

Well we couldn't even beat a reserve team of yours when you picked nearly an entire team based in the UK, while we had most of our first team out.

Lee Byrne 15 Frans Steyn
Leigh Halfpenny 14 Gio Aplon
James Hook 13 Jaque Fourie
Jamie Roberts 12 Juan de Jongh
Tom Prydie 11 Odwa Ndungane
Stephen Jones 10 Ruan Pienaar
Mike Phillips 9 Ricky Januarie
Paul James 1 CJ van der Linde
Matthew Rees 2 John Smit
Adam Jones 3 BJ Botha
Bradley Davies 4 Danie Rossouw
Deiniol Jones 5 Andries Bekker
Jonathan Thomas 6 Francois Louw
Sam Warburton 7 Dewald Potgieter
Ryan Jones 8 Joe van Niekerk

Notch it's called being a fan and what use are defeatist fans to any side ?

Samoa are clear poll favourites & my choice.

If they get through to the KO stages will they no longer be a minnow?

I think Wales have a chance of catching SA cold in the opening game, I think Wales will come out full force (as we have done before against 3N teams) and this time we will be able to keep it up longer with improved fitness and Warburton looking to prove a point at captain. If SA underestimate Wales or are too slow getting going Wales could put points on the board and hold out in the 2nd half.

Though im just hoping, realistically, I expect SA to force penalties and counterattack turnovers and win by less than 10.

Still I think Wales can win, which is certainly better than I was feeling 6 months ago.

nottins wrote:

Cymroglan wrote:

Wales Fiji is a big gap but wales South Africa is not.

Really ? I'm sure Fiji have a better record against Wales over the last 10 years than Wales have over South Africa.

Since 27 August 2001 vs Wales.

Fiji 1 win, 1 draw, 2 losses
SA 11 wins.

wales606 wrote:I think Wales have a chance of catching SA cold in the opening game, I think Wales will come out full force (as we have done before against 3N teams) and this time we will be able to keep it up longer with improved fitness and Warburton looking to prove a point at captain. If SA underestimate Wales or are too slow getting going Wales could put points on the board and hold out in the 2nd half.

Though im just hoping, realistically, I expect SA to force penalties and counterattack turnovers and win by less than 10.

Still I think Wales can win, which is certainly better than I was feeling 6 months ago.

This time you will play against SA's first choice team, away from home, when they won't under estimate any opponent, hungry to defend their title.

You can quote as many games as you want but that does not change the world ranking positions South Africa are third Wales are sixth and Fiji are fifteenth.
I said it would not be a upset if sides were close to each other but would be if there was a big gap not once did I say that Wales would beat South Africa.

biltong,

I actually think Fiji could really push South Africa yet end up ultimately falling short. What do you think?

I plumped for Japan who have hit a good run of form, but Russia is a very sensible call.

MBTGOG wrote:biltong,

I actually think Fiji could really push South Africa yet end up ultimately falling short. What do you think?

MBTGOG, it is not just Fiji, the fact is they did in the last world cup, but so did Tonga. and we have also had tough physical battles with Samoa.

They are all very physical teams, and we love that kind of confrontation. They alwyas have some very talented big players, and those guys as individuals can make breaks and score points. But ultimately I think the reason why they eventually lose is because of structure. Think back to the last world cup and our game against tonga, it was only when John smit and a few of the first choice players came up that we could control the match to eventually win. They unfortunately just don't have enough structure in their game, but if they manage to open it upm they are extremely dangerous, and that in my opinion is a lesson Wales must learn when playing them, you don't open the game up against these guys, they are physically in most cases stronger, faster and more talented individuals.

MBTGOG wrote:biltong,

I actually think Fiji could really push South Africa yet end up ultimately falling short. What do you think?

Having watched Fiji throw in the towel easily against New Zealand, and seen them in the Pacific Nations Cup where they got battered by Japan and Tonga, I sense Fiji may struggle. They also played Tonga twice in world Cup warm ups and lost their second game 32-20. Luckily they play Namibia first so they have the chance to get confidence back, but then they have 3 tough games to get through with Wales at the end.
I think Samoa are the bigger threat, though Samoa play Wales only 4 days after playing Namibia themselves, so that will probably help Wales. Luckily for Wales is Alain Rolland is the ref in the Samoa game, and you know how he loves the Welsh and hates nasty tackles .

Samoa will break Namibia, their rugby is weakest than I have ever seen.

biltongbek wrote:

wales606 wrote:I think Wales have a chance of catching SA cold in the opening game, I think Wales will come out full force (as we have done before against 3N teams) and this time we will be able to keep it up longer with improved fitness and Warburton looking to prove a point at captain. If SA underestimate Wales or are too slow getting going Wales could put points on the board and hold out in the 2nd half.

Though im just hoping, realistically, I expect SA to force penalties and counterattack turnovers and win by less than 10.

Still I think Wales can win, which is certainly better than I was feeling 6 months ago.

This time you will play against SA's first choice team, away from home, when they won't under estimate any opponent, hungry to defend their title.

Well, if you look at those teams based on the current 1st teams

Lee Byrne (2nd/3rd choice) 15 Frans Steyn (1st choice)
Leigh Halfpenny (2nd choice) 14 Gio Aplon (1st/2nd choice)
James Hook (2nd choice) 13 Jaque Fourie (1st choice)
Jamie Roberts (1st choice) 12 Juan de Jongh (2nd choice)
Tom Prydie (not in WC squad) 11 Odwa Ndungane (2nd choice)
Stephen Jones (2nd/3rd choice) 10 Ruan Pienaar (2nd/3d choice)
Mike Phillips (1st choice) 9 Ricky Januarie (not in WC squad)
Paul James (2nd choice) 1 CJ van der Linde (1st choice)
Matthew Rees (not in WC squad) 2 John Smit (1st choice)
Adam Jones (1st choice) 3 BJ Botha (not in WC squad)
Bradley Davies (1st choice) 4 Danie Rossouw (2nd choice)
Deiniol Jones (not in WC squad) 5 Andries Bekker (not in WC squad)
Jonathan Thomas (not in WC squad) 6 Francois Louw (2nd choice)
Sam Warburton (1st choice) 7 Dewald Potgieter (not in WC squad)
Ryan Jones (2nd choice) 8 Joe van Niekerk (not in WC squad)

SA -
4/5 1st choice
6 2nd choice
5 not in WC squad

Wales
5 1st choice
6 2nd choice
4 not in WC squad



So how was it a 1st choice Wales team against a weak SA team???

AlynDavies wrote:

MBTGOG wrote:biltong,

I actually think Fiji could really push South Africa yet end up ultimately falling short. What do you think?

Having watched Fiji throw in the towel easily against New Zealand, and seen them in the Pacific Nations Cup where they got battered by Japan and Tonga, I sense Fiji may struggle. They also played Tonga twice in world Cup warm ups and lost their second game 32-20. Luckily they play Namibia first so they have the chance to get confidence back, but then they have 3 tough games to get through with Wales at the end.
I think Samoa are the bigger threat, though Samoa play Wales only 4 days after playing Namibia themselves, so that will probably help Wales.

I don't believe they threw the towel in against New Zealand. They did well but a lack of structure was exploited by the most clinical side there is. I just feel that Fiji's style of game is much better suited to taking on South Africa than Samoa.

me thinks Samoa will be just fine with others thinking they're minnows.

England Argentina could be a tough one

Looking forward to the SA Wales match. Wales best chance to steal one. Both coming here- how come this match is first up anyway?

Wales606, if i want to I can pick holes the size of a black hole in that comparison.

since when are Byrne, Halfpenny, hook, S jones and R jones 2nd choice?

The following players are first choice for the boks. Jaque fourie and John Smit, Frans Steyn is debatable.

Even John Smit is debatable.

Taylorman wrote:Looking forward to the SA Wales match. Wales best chance to steal one. Both coming here- how come this match is first up anyway?

I am sure there are a few conspiracy theorists around to help you out with that one!

wales606 wrote:Well, if you look at those teams based on the current 1st teams

Lee Byrne (2nd/3rd choice) 15 Frans Steyn (1st choice)
Leigh Halfpenny (2nd choice) 14 Gio Aplon (1st/2nd choice)
James Hook (2nd choice) 13 Jaque Fourie (1st choice)
Jamie Roberts (1st choice) 12 Juan de Jongh (2nd choice)
Tom Prydie (not in WC squad) 11 Odwa Ndungane (2nd choice)
Stephen Jones (2nd/3rd choice) 10 Ruan Pienaar (2nd/3d choice)
Mike Phillips (1st choice) 9 Ricky Januarie (not in WC squad)
Paul James (2nd choice) 1 CJ van der Linde (1st choice)
Matthew Rees (not in WC squad) 2 John Smit (1st choice)
Adam Jones (1st choice) 3 BJ Botha (not in WC squad)
Bradley Davies (1st choice) 4 Danie Rossouw (2nd choice)
Deiniol Jones (not in WC squad) 5 Andries Bekker (not in WC squad)
Jonathan Thomas (not in WC squad) 6 Francois Louw (2nd choice)
Sam Warburton (1st choice) 7 Dewald Potgieter (not in WC squad)
Ryan Jones (2nd choice) 8 Joe van Niekerk (not in WC squad)

SA -
4/5 1st choice
6 2nd choice
5 not in WC squad

Wales
5 1st choice
6 2nd choice
4 not in WC squad



So how was it a 1st choice Wales team against a weak SA team???

Remember this was 2010 not 2011, you can't judge the Wales team of 2010 on 2011 standards because so many players have been replaced after the cack 2010 6 Nations performence.

Samoa just beat Aus away - Minnows my arxx!

Exacly my point, this Wales team is very different, in the same way the SA team we face on the 11th witll be very different.

biltongbek wrote:I am sure there are a few conspiracy theorists around to help you out with that one!

I think a lot of clout was used by South Africa and Wales. Clearly Wales didn't put up much of a fight for the kick off times, because ours are awful when compared to Irelands. But clearly to get Alain Rowlands, who refs Wales nearly all the time, and who is very fussy with dangerous play, and then to get Wayne Barnes for Fiji, must of burned up a lot of capital for Wales. Alain Rowlands is the closest thing to a home referee Wales could ever hope for, though we will need it with a home crowd behind both Islands teams.

wales606 wrote:

Well, if you look at those teams based on the current 1st teams

Why are you comparing it with current squads ? Surely you should be comparing it with how the players ranked in their squads when the game actually took place ?

Talking of crowds how are the ticket sales going for matches that don't involve the home side.