Mouth watering pool prospects and predictions

Well in case you didn´t know the World Cup kicks off this Friday with NZ Tonga. A nice first up game for the ABs. It´ll be hard and physical and to be honest people won´t know who the home side will be. The Tongans will be outnumbered but they´ll make themselves heard.

The pool games will last until October so I was looking through the fixtures list and identifying the games that will cause the most anticipation.

I think the first heavyweight match is 10 September 2030 NZ time in Dunedin between England and Argentina. For my mind the best performing teams not to win the last World Cup. Argentina have a habit of slipping off the radar between World Cups. They lost a series at home to Scotland last year and their star back Hernandez is injured and this time they don´t have their inspirational captain Pichot who was one of my players of the tournament last time round. England will be happy enough with their preparation but this is a very tough first game up for them. I don´t think England have proven to be the best of starters in the World Cup. They usually provide their best at the business end of the tournament so Argentina might well have their best chance playing them first up. The weather in Dunedin can be atrocious and to be honest I think rainy weather will hurt England more than Argentina as England have rediscovered their spark in the backline. My prediction: England will prove too strong but they won´t be happy with their performance.

The following day in Wellington at the same time we have South Africa Wales. Again a very difficult first up game for the Welsh but again I think it´s their best chance to surprise the Boks. Wales can´t be happy with their recent form in years gone by but they have a forward pack (especially in the scrum - their lineout has been erratic to say the least and this is where SA should reign supreme despite Botha being injured) that can contain the Boks but they must chance their arm and take the game to the SAs and move them round the park and try to play the game at pace and keep the ball in hand. For the love of God, no aimless kicking! SA, however, will be buoyed by their home win against the ABs. Wales have come close on a lot of occasions but can they actually win a big game? My feeling is not with this game. I expect a Bok win but it´d be great to see Wales play like they did against the ABs in 2003.

15 September, no other games on that day, there should be no excuses - even the time zone difference - to not see USA vs Russia at 1930 played in New Plymouth under the shadow of Mt Taranaki. I know nothing about Russia to be honest - Moscow´s the capital though isn´t it? - but I don´t care who you are, the mere thought of these two nations battling each other in a rugby match is enough to get my blood pumping. The cold war is over. I expect USA to have too much pace out wide but really I have no idea how Russia will go. But I´ll be watching to find out, mark my words.

17 September sees South Africa take on Fiji after they´ve had a hit out against Namibia. I always love watching Fiji play and expect at least a couple of breakaway tries for Fiji but a Bok win nonetheless. But the main event for this day is surely reserved for Australia Ireland in Auckland at 2030. Expect home crowd support for Ireland. These RWC games have traditionally been nail biters and here´s hoping this time proves no exception. Australia have their confidence sky high being crowned 3N champions and Ireland´s lead up form has been woeful. But in saying that the favourites tag has never sat well with Ireland against sides like Australia and they seem to play their best when nobody gives them a chance. Ireland showed against England in the 6N that they have a forward game that can dominate possession. This is what they´ll have to do against Australia and commit their defence up the middle so as to exploit the spaces out wide. Australia are in menacing form but this is one of the most exciting pool matches for me in terms of the way results have gone in the past between these two sides, especially in World Cups. A game that on paper should be too comfortable for Australia but can this be upset territory. My head says Australia. My 12th pint of Guiness says Ireland.

The next day we have Wales vs Samoa. Wales and Fiji last time round for Wales. In Samoa this is more of a daunting prospect for sure. This is a home game for Manu Samoa. The drums will be out and this is the stage these boys want to perform on and get the right result. Samoa showed against Australia they are not a side to be taken lightly. If they get a sniff, they grow in stature and start making huge tackles and big plays. If Wales get on top then the shoulders droop and they get pummelled. A huge game for me and even though I think Wales should win this has the makings of an upset for me.

NZ vs France 24 September at 2030. McCaw and Muliaina will be making their 100th game for the ABs. They shouldn´t focus on 2007 but it´ll be impossible not to think about it. I have immense respect for France and they are one of my favourite teams to watch, albeit it not in World Cups against NZ. But as this is a pool match Lievremont has hinted at not putting out a top side. I don´t believe this, but I think that whenever this current ABs side has a defeat that´s hurt their pride, they bounce back with a vengeance. So I tend to think that this will be a comfortable win for NZ but then again this is France and they are about a predictable as the weather in NZ.

The next day Fiji vs Samoa at 1530. The day game will suit Fiji more I feel and depending on previous results this game will be a cracker. If either side can cause an upset then they´ll have the psychological edge going into this match. Too close to call but it´ll be a cracker of a match.

Another similar match is 25 September in Wellington at 2030: Scotland vs Argentina. Depending on previous results this will be a crucial match. It won´t be pretty to watch but with probably a lot riding on this match it won´t lack for nail biting tension. I think Scotland will pip it but really too close to call. Again I think previous results will dictate who comes out with hunger for this match.

Georgia vs Romania on 28 September at 1930. Again I plead ignorance with these two teams but I know they have two monster forward packs and that should make for some monster hitting hopefully. These are the minnow games that put the teams on more or less an equal footing and hopefully brings out the best of rugby in them. Good luck to them and let´s hope they have plenty of support.

South Africa vs Samoa. Depending on previous results, if Samoa can bring about some upsets this could be a huge game. Or if it´s a game that Samoa has to win then I expect this game to be a cracker. South Africa should again prove too good but if Samoa have a sniff of qualifying and with the home support, they can play like they have 20 players on the field.

1st October in Auckland at 2030: England vs Scotland. Again previous results might well boost Scotland´s chances but let´s face it, Scotland could have lost all their games and they´d be up for this game. England should prove too good in the backs but if Scotland can raise their forward game and get their fair share of ball they do have a game that can put points on the board (divisible by 3) and play in the right part of the field.

Wales vs Fiji 2 October: 1800 in Hamilton. Oh dear. The Boks and Fiji and Samoa. Wales can´t have been jumping up and down with this pool of nightmare fixtures. But what a way to close the tournament. (well technically Ireland and Italy have that honour but this is the game of the day for me by far). Plenty of Fijian support to be expected for this match and if the Fijians can express themselves like only Fijians can then expect that home support to be deafening. These are the World Cup games I love to watch. Free expression vs more conventional rugby. If Wales can dominate the set piece and possession they should be able to control this game. But if the Fijians can open things up then they are at their most dangerous.

So did I miss any other games out or disagree with my predictions? To be honest that Ireland vs Australia stands out for me but plenty of mouth watering prospects before the knockout games begin in October. Best of luck to all and may rugby be the overall winner... and NZ!

kia kaha

Russia have a big strong pack and against lesser nations such as the USA (no offence) they will not be easy.

I agree the USA should out gun them in the backs but as its always been said forwards win games.

With Kingsley Jones coaching Russia and as a Dragons fan I will be following their games with interst in the hop we can snatch a T/Head for Dave.

Cheers mate for the info. I had a sneaking suspicion that they were in a similar mould to Georgia with probably vodka carriers instead of water carriers. I expect fireworks in the forwards and the cold war to be rekindled.

What about the Welsh games? I´m sure you´re nervous about those as it´s the closest those teams will come to a World Cup and the home support will be very much local. Wales on paper should come out on top but these Pacific nations will not be easybeats in this World Cup. That´s an intimidating pool Wales finds itself in. Especially with such a difficult and energy sapping first up game but it is a game that Wales must try to win.

NZ v France is certainly one worth watching. The French have always been unpredictable, but under Lievremont, even more so. When you look at the players they have in their backs, and given that they can always put out a fairly fearsome tight 5, they could hurt anyone.

From a neutral´s perspective, especially in the World Cup, these games are always worth watching. But from a French perspective, I can´t help but think they´d fancy more their chances of upsetting the ABs once again if it were a knockout game, especially when you could argue second place is an easier run to the final than securing first place in the pool. Out of all the teams to entertain tactical losing, I´d think the French might have the highest odds to entertain such notions, albeit still low odds.

But you´re right, they have the potential to come out and play heroically on defence and or sublimely on attack and humble the ABs again. NZ will be thin in loose forwards for the match and Woodcock has a hamstring complaint so there are points of attack for the French to pinpoint for sure.

My biggest fear about our group is not so much the qualifying from, which I think we will is what state our squad will be injuries come the quarters.

We are already unlikely IMO to see S Jones or Jenkins before the quarters so that puts a strain on our other alternatives.

Fiji and Samoa will run and run hard all day everyday so thats my worry.

They won´t just run hard but also tackle hard, especially if they´re in with a sniff of victory, so those are three games that will take a lot out of them for sure if they qualify. But to be honest, provided injuries don´t come into it, I´d be happier with three hard pool games that leave you battle hardened than some powder puff pool games that leave you short of a big hit out. Wales are in their off season so a few more tough games will do them a lot of good without leaving them too fatigued. SA, on the other hand, have had a long season with a few of their veterans nearing the end of their careers. They have a better history of playing the Pacific Island teams but it´ll still take a lot out of them physically.

Whoever has luck with minimising injuries in this pool will be in good shape for the knockouts but Wales I fancy would be the best in shape. But those are very tough pool matches to qualify. Don´t underestimate the Polynesian home support.

kia,

After our results against them we can't and hopefully won't underestimate them.

I just hope we play our own game and not get drawn into trying to play them at theirs like we did against Fiji in 07.

Yes, Wales have the forwards and the set piece to get their hands on enough possession and dictate play on their own teams. But somewhere deep down, there is a natural instinct in the Welsh to open up the game and run the ball. That is something, like you say, that they must fight as the Welsh firepower out wide is a temptation. But they must choose their time to go out wide carefully and not before the work up front has been done.

If Wales are to beat Samoa then they need to rely on their brains not their brawn - IMO we are far too strong for Fiji but I do not see us beating Samoa which makes the Fiji game a dead rubber

RubyGuby wrote:If Wales are to beat Samoa then they need to rely on their brains not their brawn - IMO we are far too strong for Fiji but I do not see us beating Samoa which makes the Fiji game a dead rubber

Ruby,

We were, on paper far to strong for Fiji in 07 but look what happened then when we tried to take them on at their own game.

Kia,

You are right and as the saying goes you have to earn the right to go wide, I hope the game is in the bag before we try it.

If the game is in the bag, then all the more reason not to tempt fate and go wide! Presumably keep doing what worked for you and bang it up the middle.

By all means go wide, just do the basics well and control possession to dictate terms to the PI teams. If you get ahead of yourself or don´t do the basics well and get ball turned over by not committing enough players to rucks or by going wide too early, then you make life very difficult for yourselves. PI work on the chaos principle. Remove the structure from the game and they thrive. Tie them down and keep them honest in the tight and their enthusiasm fades.

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:Yes, Wales have the forwards and the set piece to get their hands on enough possession and dictate play on their own teams. But somewhere deep down, there is a natural instinct in the Welsh to open up the game and run the ball. That is something, like you say, that they must fight as the Welsh firepower out wide is a temptation. But they must choose their time to go out wide carefully and not before the work up front has been done.

The fact is there are different methods of running the ball, and the Pacific Island teams like an OPEN running game, with little structure. It is fine for Wales to run the ball in hand but as long as they maintain structure.

The one reason why SA has been so successful against the Pacific Islanders is because they always maintain structure.

Too right Biltong. Having a forward pack that packs its own punch (no pun intended!) doesn´t go amiss for you guys either.

Wales I think we should move the ball as much as possible but obviously done in a structured controlled manner.
Playing the game too tight will nullify our fitness level which we have worked very hard to achieve.

Bedford - That was Jenkins team, the team that had 60 put on them in the warm ups - I used to adore Jenkins but he was a decade too late and clueless as is selections showed. The recent draw against Fiji Galtand made 11 changes and put out a rag bag of a side that was awful to watch - we should have lost - he did the same away to Italy and we nearly lost. With a full side I would expect at least a 20 point gap against Fiji. Samoa is a very different proposition and I dont see us as favourites for that one.

Last time we played Samoa Biggar started well but gave away a simple try all in all we played extremely poorly.

Biggar also "starred" in the 16 all darw in Cardiff

Wales vs South Africa first up is possibly the best aspect of the draw for Wales. They don´t have pressure of other results.

England vs Argentina is a good hard scrap for England but they are in much better form than 2007 and Argentina don´t have pivotal players in the backs from 2007. But no prizes for guessing their best tactics for this match.

On paper I think we are stronger than both Fiji and Samoa but passed results will always crop up.

If we play the right game then we should comfortably beat them and Namibia so it's all down to our 1st game and how we go in that.

IF we win then confidence should be very high and we are far better prepared than 07 but it will still be a nervous few games for me.

From a Scottish point a view:

Romania - anything less than a 30 point margin will be disappointing scoring at least five tries in the process. We hammered a near full strength Italy without really getting our of second gear. This is a real chance to build some confidence in getting over the try line and ironing out any issues raised in the Ireland and Italy games.

Georgia - Again, a large win is needed without the game being a real walkover. I know their players play a to a high domestic standard but I can't see that as an excuse to scraping a win over them. If we struggle to beat Georgia, we'll get humped by England and possibly Argentina too. Size isn't everything (apparently :o/) because you need the fitness, skills, mobility and vision to go with it. Anything less than a 15 point margin will be unacceptable.

Argentina - Psycologically, we have the upper hand after last years tour. Argentina aren't the team they were and without a doubt, we have improved since then. The main obstacle for Scotland is panicking and worrying about the opposition rather than focussing on our own game. Decision making will be key in this match so the Kellock et al will have to have the belief in their ability. Play like they did for the last 20 mins against Argentina in 2007 - but from the first minute this time. Do that, and they will win this game comfortably.

England - In my view, the pool decider. It will probably boil down to the NZ v France result. If France win, both teams will be desperate to win the group and avoid NZ. Could go either way with our backrow edging theirs and their backline edging ours. Should be a cracker in any case.

Predictions:

Scotland 43 - 6 Romania
Scotland 27 - 5 Georgia
Scotland 17 - 9 Argentina
Scotland 53 - 0 England

That´s a nail biter against England tattie! Though I´m sure you´d take 3 - 0 with a wonky drop goal in the 80th minute.

Scotland have the right draw for their pool matches. Take confidence with a few tries and some physicality from the first two matches and if you can get the right result against Argentina then the pressure gets taken off and you can approach the England game with the pressure off.