Is 2011 the year that stopped Rafa getting to 16 slams?

This time last year, Rafa had just completed the career grand slam and taken his tally to nine slams overall. At age 24 and seemingly in his tennis prime, he appeared to have a good chance of at least equalling Federer's record of 16 slams.

Fast forward a year though and his number of slams has only increased by one.

Age-to-age, this still puts him one slam ahead of Federer. In Federer's next year though (age 25 - 26), he won another 3 slams. There was also a year of two slams (2009, age 27 - 28) and two years of one slam (2008 and 2010).

Do you think Rafa can equal this over the coming years?

My feeling is that it will be very close. The style of Rafa's play and his history of injury suggests to me that, when the inevitable decline comes, it won't be a gradual one. With Rafa's game, once the legs start to slow, the game is up.

I think he is probably looking at needing two slams per year over the next three years. Tough but not beyond the realms of possibility. My personal guess: he will come up just short. I think maybe 14 -15 slams.

Unquestionably.

He can't beat Djokovic now, full stop. The challenge for another Slam for Rafa now becomes getting to the final and hoping Djokovic isn't there. And sooner or later he's going to drawn Federer in his half and make it harder; don't forget that he's been getting the peach draw all year and most of last.

I might even look at the odds of no more Slams.

I don't think he has much of a chance now. Novak isn't Roger's favorite guy, but he pretty much has assured that Roger's record will last for a very long time. I can't see Rafa ever getting dominance of his rivalry with Novak and that is what it will take to get to 16. He may make it more competitive but I don't think he will ever get the clear edge he will need to reach 16.

Had Djoko, Davydenko, Federer and Delpotro not been injured in 2010, Nadal woudl have struggled to win 3 last year.

He was blessed with opponents being injured giving him ridiculous draws. Like he was also pretty lucky to have won the FO this year. Djoko woudl have hammered it once again. Likewise he was unlucky to have played Djoko yesterday cause on his yesterday form he woudl probably have beaten Federer.

Nadal showed however yesterday that he is still amazingly fit and will consistently reach the later stages of slams if he keeps that fit.

But expect him to lose early in lesser touraments. He simply hasn't got the same level of energy when he plays slams than when he plays the lesser tournaments.

It may be a bit speculative, but I think Nadal has perhaps 2-3 slams left in him. So much depends upon whether Djokovic is waiting for him in the final because at the moment Nadal is the favourite against anyone else on pretty much any surface if he is fit. It's worth remembering that (i) in every year but 2008 Nadal has fallen short of the SF in at least one slam - he can usually manage a really good run for only 5-7 months of a year, not the 9 months needed to go deep into every slam so he tends to threaten at most in 3 slams each year (ii) Nadal has only managed >1 slam in his two absolutely exceptional years so far - and the idea that he has more than 1 of those left at this stage seems a bit unlikely to me (iii) he's been at the top since 2005 - 7 years - and that sort of mileage begins to take its toll, especially on physical players.

Never really fancied him to get the record in the first place to be honest, even after his superb 2010. Far too much competition now - which is precisely why Djokovic will in all honesty have to 'settle' for, at the most, two Slams in 2012.

I think Nadal has two more at least left in him, one of which will certainly be at the French. Djokovic will not maintain his 2011 level all the time; not a slight against him, simply an indication of how special he's been this year and how strong the competition behind him is. As I said, I never fancied him to get to Federer's sixteen (and I reckon the Swiss has one more Slam left in him, too) but Sampras' fourteen is still a possibility. My gut feeling is that he'll fall a little short, either on twelve or thirteen. Two more French Open crowns and another Wimbledon trophy would be my guess.

I think he may have 1 more RG and 1 more Wimbledon in him.. lots of players can do well on the surface in AO so that one may be a stretch for him to win a 2nd time. If David Ferrer can beat him 3-0 in AO then just imagine what someone with weapons can do to him...

I recall people thinking Federer could hit at least 20 and in reality he should have been on 19 and not 16 as 3 slams he should not have lost were the AO 09, US 09 and Wimbledon 08.

Chasing records is a very hard thing to do whether you are Fed, Nadal or Djoko. I think Nadal still has many slams left in him. Its too early to write him off. I think his best bet is to hope Djokovic loses early and to me the one person who can do that is Federer even in his dotage! There will come a point when Djokovic's form may drop and Nadal has to be ready to step up and win more slams. I think Nadal is a better player now than what he was 3 years ago. Nadal playing the way he did yesterday would have hammered any finalist apart from Djokovic. I was amazed at Djoko's staying power in those long rallies.

I think 16 is catchable. Nadal does not look to be losing at the FO anytime soon. Next year will be a whole new ball game for Djoko. 3 slams to defend, many more MS 1000 titles and the #1 ranking to maintain. Next year will be all about the pressure and handling it.

For Fed's record to be safe, he needs at least one more slam. 10 isn't a long way away and certainly doable as Nadal is only 24.

Rafa might still get to 16 but by then Fed will be on 20.

Nadal is 25. Say he plays 5 more years. Thats 20 more slams. Do people really think Djokovic is going to win all 20? This year when Djokovic was playing at his very best Nadal still won one.

break_in_the_fifth wrote:Rafa might still get to 16 but by then Fed will be on 20.

Much as I would love to see that I'm afraid it isnt going to happen

hawkeye wrote:Nadal is 25. Say he plays 5 more years. Thats 20 more slams. Do people really think Djokovic is going to win all 20? This year when Djokovic was playing at his very best Nadal still won one.

I suspect he'll start finding it harder soon though. I cannot for the life of me see Rafa in Slam contention past 27, his game can only be played by a young man at his peak.

88Chris05 wrote:Never really fancied him to get the record in the first place to be honest, even after his superb 2010. Far too much competition now - which is precisely why Djokovic will in all honesty have to 'settle' for, at the most, two Slams in 2012.

I think Nadal has two more at least left in him, one of which will certainly be at the French. Djokovic will not maintain his 2011 level all the time; not a slight against him, simply an indication of how special he's been this year and how strong the competition behind him is. As I said, I never fancied him to get to Federer's sixteen (and I reckon the Swiss has one more Slam left in him, too) but Sampras' fourteen is still a possibility. My gut feeling is that he'll fall a little short, either on twelve or thirteen. Two more French Open crowns and another Wimbledon trophy would be my guess.

Good post Chris, and welcome to the board I hope you contribute more often. I agree with the gist of your post. It really does depend on whether Rafa gets Novak in a final or not, every final this season that he has played someone other than Novak he has won. That is the reason that I don't agree with the theory that somehow Rafa has fallen off greatly in form, he really is only losing to one guy. But unfortunately for him that one guy keeps winning all the time and getting to the final. Also I agree that Novak will be hardpressed to repeat this kind of season again. The tour is relentless, the pack will hunt you down no matter who you are. To me the most amazing thing about Pete and Roger is that they managed so many years in a row of being the best, I hope for the same success for novak as a big Novak fan. But I am happy enough with what he has accomplished so far.

88Chris05 wrote:Far too much competition now...

Who is challenging in slams apart from Nadal and Djoko? Murray can waltz through to the semis without any real chance of winning one, Fed can only downhill at his age, anyone who beats one of the top 4 in slam never looks like winning the actual GS and the top 15 are mostly at an age where winning a GS is rare, especially first time slams. Apart from Djoko and Murray, is there anyone under 25 in the top 15?

Re: It's a long road for Nadal
by 88Chris05 on Sun 3 Jul 2011 - 20:24

.luciusmann wrote:
I disagree slightly one point, had Nadal won today, I think he would have stood a good chance of beating Fed's haul @ some point but now....unlikely, incredibly unlikely.

Christ Almighty, talk about an overreaction. If he'd have won he'd have had a 'good chance' of overhauling Federer, but now on the basis of ONE defeat it's 'incredibly unlikely?'

Nadal's chances of surpassing Federer's record of Grand Slams remain more or less the same, regardless of whether he'd won or lost today. He's still well in the hunt for the record, just not QUITE as much as he would have been had he been able to hang on to the Wimbledon title. Back-to-back French Open and Wimbledon finals yet again, as well as an overall 10-3 record in Slam finals, suggests that one loss is hardly a monumental spanner in the works on that front.

A worst, Nadal is the second favourite to win the US Open. I would be amazed if he didn't triumph at least twice more at the French Open before he retires, and I'd be equally surprised if he didn't regain the world number one ranking some time in 2012. People are acting as if he's on a terminal slide - he isn't. Djokovic is deservedly the top man right now, but it's unrealistic to expect that his form from the first half of 2011 is going to continue forever. I'm totally convinced that, in another twelve to eighteen months time, Nadal will have picked up at least another two Slams and will have, at one point ot another, regained the top ranking, even if it's not for all that long..
88Chris05

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A slight change in tune there, eh Chris?

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It appears that I have a stalker in the form of emancipator! Not a change of tune; Nadal is of course 'in the hunt' for the record, as he was after Wimbledon. But I never said he'd get it, as I've never believed he will - and you'll see that's exactly what I stopped short of saying in the post you've tracked back to.

That post is more or less consistent with what I've said today - I reckon Nadal will win at least two more Slams, possibly three. I also still see him regaining the top ranking, even if it's only fleetingly.

88Chris05 wrote:It appears that I have a stalker in the form of emancipator! Not a change of tune; Nadal is of course 'in the hunt' for the record, as he was after Wimbledon. But I never said he'd get it, as I've never believed he will - and you'll see that's exactly what I stopped short of saying in the post you've tracked back to.

That post is more or less consistent with what I've said today - I reckon Nadal will win at least two more Slams, possibly three. I also still see him regaining the top ranking, even if it's only fleetingly.

Hello



Fair enough, just playing Devil's advocate..

I'm not stalking you... although I have my own personal stalker, albeit he hasn't been seen since yesterday.. mm.. I wonder why?

bogbrush wrote:

hawkeye wrote:Nadal is 25. Say he plays 5 more years. Thats 20 more slams. Do people really think Djokovic is going to win all 20? This year when Djokovic was playing at his very best Nadal still won one.

I suspect he'll start finding it harder soon though. I cannot for the life of me see Rafa in Slam contention past 27, his game can only be played by a young man at his peak.

If you think that about Rafa then surely you must think the same about Djokovic and Murray.