Who's going to qualify for the Quarter-Finals?

Current pool standings: http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/rugby_union/tables/4776337.stm
Upcoming fixtures:
26 September:
Wales v Namibia, Stadium Taranaki, New Plymouth (0730 BST)
27 September:
Canada v Japan, McLean Park, Napier (0500 BST)
Italy v United States, Trafalgar Park, Nelson (0730 BST)
28 September:
Georgia v Romania, Arena Manawatu, Palmerston North (0730 BST)
30 September:
South Africa v Samoa, North Harbour Stadium, North Shore (0830 BST)
1 October:
Australia v Russia, Nelson (0330 BST)
France v Tonga, Wellington Regional Stadium (0600 BST)
England v Scotland, Eden Park, Auckland (0830 BST)
2 October:
Argentina v Georgia, Arena Manawatu, Palmerston North (0100 BST)
New Zealand v Canada, Wellington Regional Stadium (0330 BST)
Wales v Fiji, Waikato Stadium, Hamilton (0600 BST)
Ireland v Italy, Otago Stadium, Dunedin (0830 BST)

Qualification explained: http://www.rugbyworldcup.com/home/teams/team=35/news/newsid=2044798.html

Pool A:
Nice simple pool to kick off with. New Zealand are guaranteed first place. Should the unlikely happen and NZ pick up no match points from their match with Canada and France pick up a full 5 against Tonga, New Zealand and France will both finish on 15 points and NZ will take it on the head-to-head.

France are guaranteed to finish above unless they lose 5-0 on match points in their game with Tonga. If Tonga pick up a bonus point win and deny France any points, then they'll finish level with France on 10 points and take it on the head-to-head.

Canada are still mathematically in with a shot. If they beat Japan they'll be on 8 or 9 points. They'll have to finish on more points than France to qualify though, which will mean either a win or at least a couple of bonus points against New Zealand. If they finish level on points with France AND Tonga (which would have to be 10 and would mean a bonus point win against Japan and a bonus point against New Zealand) then it will come down to points difference, and France are currently ahead.

Pool B:
Less simple. England are in the driving seat with 14 points, with Argentina and Scotland trailing on 10 points a piece. If England and Argentina finish level on points, England will be ranked above Argentina because of their head-to-head. If Scotland and Argentina finish level on points Argentina will be ranked above Scotland because of their head-to-head. If England and Scotland finish level on points (a scenario that can only happen if Scotland beat England on Saturday) then Scotland will be ranked higher as a result of that head-to-head. If all 3 teams finish level on points, then it goes to points difference, where England have a massive advantage. For England, a bonus point should be enough to qualify as group winners. The only way it wouldn't be is if Scotland thrash England and Argentina thrash Georgia, putting all three teams on 15 points and hurting England's points difference.

Scotland should go into the game with England expecting the worst, expecting Argentina to pick up 5 points from their match with Georgia the next day. For Scotland to therefore qualify, they will either have to beat England 5-0 on match points, or beat England 5-1 on match points and hope go through on points difference. Should Scotland win 4-0 on match points, they would be on 14 points with England and their head-to-head puts them above England (and England crashing out of the tournament). The only thing that could then save England would be Argentina either losing to Georgia or picking up a win without a bonus point (putting all three teams on 14 points) and hoping to go through on points difference. Should Scotland fail to win they will be guaranteed to finish below England, and would need to hope that Argentina pick up less match points in their game with Georgia.

Argentina are in a fairly comfortable position. They're playing a Georgia side that will be going all-out to beat Romania midweek and will know what is needed to do by the time their game on Saturday kicks off. The best result from an Argentinian perspective is for Scotland to take 4 match points and England 0, as a BP win would then see them top the pool.

Georgia are just about still in this thing, despite not having picked up a point in the tournament. They'll need 10 points from their 2 games and hope both Argentina and Scotland fail to pick up a single point on the weekend. This will put 3 teams on 10 points and it would then come down to points difference. It's fairly tight at the moment, with Argentina in the lead, but it could potentially happen if Georgia get a big win over Romania. If Georgia and Argentina do finish on 10 points, Scotland could qualify even by picking up no match points if they only lose narrowly to England and Argentina lose by a few more (but not enough to see Georgia leapfrog Scotland). A fairly academic scenario though.

Pool C:
Italy could make the pool interesting with a bonus point win against United States on Tuesday, ahead of their crunch game with Ireland. For Ireland, any win against Italy will guarantee them to top the pool. For Australia, a 5 point win against Russia on Saturday would guarantee them a spot in the quarter-finals. If Australia can take 5 points from Russia and Ireland take less than 2, then Australia will top the pool.

The interesting point is what can Italy do, and they'll almost certainly be forgetting about Australia (as 5 points from Russia is as much of a gimme as you'll see in this World Cup). Italy need two wins this week to qualify (pretty much). If they win without a bonus against USA, they can still qualify by beating Ireland either 5-1, 5-0 or 4-0 on match points. If they do get a bonus point against the Eagles, any win would over Ireland do for them, unless Ireland pick up two bonus points. A 4-2 match point win for Italy would see Ireland finish ahead of Italy, and a 5-2 match point win for Italy would see both teams finish on 15 points, as most likely Australia would too (if they pick up 5 points against Russia). In this case it would come down to points difference, where Australia have the advantage (and, as Ireland would have to lose for this scenario to happen, Australia would be guaranteed to finish above Ireland, although Italy could overtake them).

Italy could even qualify if they pick up a bonus point draw against the US, but then only a 5-0 drubbing of Ireland would see them overtake Ireland.
If Russia manage to beat Australia, Australia could still qualify (even if they fail to pick up a bonus point) if Italy lose to Ireland. Bonus points would come into play, but Australia would have the advantage in direct results.

Pool D:
Wales can put themselves in a very strong position with 5 points against Namibia tomorrow, but it isn't 100% essential for qualification. If Wales win (with or without a bonus point) they can still finish anywhere but bottom in their pool going into the final games.

A couple of quick paper-scissors-stone triangles for you. If Wales and Samoa finish level on points, Wales will be ranked above Samoa because of their head-to-head. If Fiji and Samoa finish level on points Samoa will be ranked above Fiji because of their head-to-head. If Wales and Fiji finish level on points (a scenario that can only happen if Fiji beat Wales on Sunday) then Fiji will be ranked higher as a result of that head-to-head. If South Africa and Wales finish level on points, South Africa will be ranked ahead due to their head-to-head. If Samoa and South Africa finish level on points (a scenario that can only happen if Samoa beat South Africa on Friday) then Samoa will be ranked higher.

Got all that? Me neither. Put simply for now, Namibia are out. Fiji are almost out. Fiji's maximum points total is 10, which would put them level with Samoa and going out on the head-to-head. However, if Wales were to end up on 10 points as well then it will come down to points difference, and Fiji will need to trounce Wales to overhaul their huge deficit.

Random scenario in the spoiler tag, ignore to continue with genuine analysis!

Spoiler:

So where was I? Namibia out, Fiji pretty much out. Wales and Samoa still very much in. South Africa comfortable, but not yet safe. Assuming Wales beat Namibia they'll be on 9 or 10 points. A 5-0 Samoa win would see them overtake South Africa and guarantee qualification. A 5-1 or 4-0 win would see Samoa level South Africa's points total and top it on direct results - as it stands. Here come Wales. Wales could easily finish on 14 or 15 points with 9 or 10 points this week. If they finish level with Samoa and South Africa points difference will come into play. Currently South Africa are a long way in front and Wales are a long way behind, but there is time for all that to change (especially if Samoa win 1, Wales win 2 and South Africa lose 1). If Wales can take 10 points and Samoa beat South Africa 4-0 or 5-0 on match points, Wales will qualify as pool winners, along with Samoa as pool runners-up.
Should South Africa get that win and guarantee themselves a place in the quarter-finals as pool winners, Samoa will have to hope Fiji beat Wales (assuming Wales haven't been upset by Namibia), and bonus points could be crucial. As said earlier, Samoa will have to finish on more points than Wales to qualify (unless there is a three-way tie). So 6 points from the next two games would be enough to see Wales qualify, assuming Samoa fail to take 2 or more points from South Africa. Wales could be almost assured of qualification before they even play Fiji, if they take 5 points from Namibia and Samoa take 0 from South Africa. Only then a 5-0 Fiji win could see Wales miss out, and it would come down to points difference.
Either way, by the time Wales come to play Fiji they'll know exactly what they need to qualify (or if indeed qualification is out of the question, should they fail to beat Namibia and Samoa beat South Africa).

In conclusion:
Already through - New Zealand
Win and you're through - France, England, Ireland, South Africa
Should make it - Argentina, Australia, Wales
In with a shout - Tonga, Scotland, Italy, Samoa
Mathematical possibilities - Canada, Georgia, Fiji
Already packing - Japan, Romania, USA, Russia, Namibia

Fixed.

england to qualify

10 out of 10 for application and presentation Robbo, respect.

Pool A - New Zealand then France.
Pool B - England then Argentina.
Pool C - Ireland then Australia.
Pool D - South Africa then Wales.

Pretty much as expected when the pools were drawn.

You could argue that Argentina have gate-crashed the party, but equally you could argue that based on their performance at the last WC they are the better tournament team.

Scotland have a good tournament record, they've never failed to make the quarter-finals. I thought they would have made it. I would have also guessed Australia would have topped the pool. Both still possibilities, if not probabilities.

PJHolybloke wrote:10 out of 10 for application and presentation Robbo, respect.

Pool A - New Zealand then France.
Pool B - England then Argentina.
Pool C - Ireland then Australia.
Pool D - South Africa then Wales.

Pretty much as expected when the pools were drawn.

You could argue that Argentina have gate-crashed the party, but equally you could argue that based on their performance at the last WC they are the better tournament team.

I didn't expect Ireland to beat Oz and Italy could still ruin our party. Scotland could also ruin England's party too. Apartt from that i expect it to finish as you have.

I expected Ireland to beat Aus, expect them to beat Italy by 15-20 points and expect England to beat Scotland by the same sort of margin.

Expectations don't win matches though.

I can't help feeling there will be no further "upsets" in the group games, and that the next surprise result will come in the knockout phase.

The only remaining group game that I'm struggling to call is Romania v Georgia, the history suggests Romania but my instincts are saying Georgia.

Any suggestions will be greatly appreciated.

Fantastic article, well done robbo. As for who will qualify:

Pool A - NZ then France
Pool B - England then Argentina
Pool C - Australia then Italy
Pool D - South Africa then Wales

Quarter Finals

NZ V ARG - NZ by 20
SA V ITA - SA by 18
ENG V FRA - ENG by 6
AUS V WAL - AUS by 11

Semi Finals

NZ V SA - SA by 9
ENG V AUS - ENG by 3

Final

ENG V SA - ENG by 5

Duty281 wrote:Fantastic article, well done robbo. As for who will qualify:

Pool A - NZ then France
Pool B - England then Argentina
Pool C - Australia then Italy
Pool D - South Africa then Wales

Quarter Finals

NZ V ARG - NZ by 20
SA V ITA - SA by 18
ENG V FRA - ENG by 6
AUS V WAL - AUS by 11

Semi Finals

NZ V SA - SA by 9
ENG V AUS - ENG by 3

Final

ENG V SA - ENG by 5

Yeah, that is how my fantasy went last night, except we won the final as well.

And then I woke up to a cold cup of coffee.

Duty281 wrote:Fantastic article, well done robbo. As for who will qualify:

Pool A - NZ then France
Pool B - England then Argentina
Pool C - Australia then Italy
Pool D - South Africa then Wales

Quarter Finals

NZ V ARG - NZ by 20
SA V ITA - SA by 18
ENG V FRA - ENG by 6
AUS V WAL - AUS by 11

Semi Finals

NZ V SA - SA by 9
ENG V AUS - ENG by 3

Final

ENG V SA - ENG by 5

Nurse - he's out of bed again!

Gotta hand it to Robbo.

That was an impressive post.

I'd hate to have to take a test on it though.

Well done mate:

PJHolybloke wrote:

Duty281 wrote:Fantastic article, well done robbo. As for who will qualify:

Pool A - NZ then France
Pool B - England then Argentina
Pool C - Australia then Italy
Pool D - South Africa then Wales

Quarter Finals

NZ V ARG - NZ by 20
SA V ITA - SA by 18
ENG V FRA - ENG by 6
AUS V WAL - AUS by 11

Semi Finals

NZ V SA - SA by 9
ENG V AUS - ENG by 3

Final

ENG V SA - ENG by 5

Nurse - he's out of bed again!

PJ don't you start getting sarcastic. Top of the v2 SG league by three points and asking for tips on GeorgiavRomania is a bit much

Portnoy wrote:

PJHolybloke wrote:

Duty281 wrote:Fantastic article, well done robbo. As for who will qualify:

Pool A - NZ then France
Pool B - England then Argentina
Pool C - Australia then Italy
Pool D - South Africa then Wales

Quarter Finals

NZ V ARG - NZ by 20
SA V ITA - SA by 18
ENG V FRA - ENG by 6
AUS V WAL - AUS by 11

Semi Finals

NZ V SA - SA by 9
ENG V AUS - ENG by 3

Final

ENG V SA - ENG by 5

Nurse - he's out of bed again!

PJ don't you start getting sarcastic. Top of the v2 SG league by three points and asking for tips on GeorgiavRomania is a bit much

You've seen clear through my cunning plan Portnoy, I thought I was going to get away with that too!

Looks like its you and TGG in the final PJ...hows THAT for a showdown...

..... ... ... ...

Barnes will ref...

Taylorman wrote:Looks like its you and TGG in the final PJ...hows THAT for a showdown...

..... ... ... ...

Barnes will ref...

I ain't afraid of no ghosts. I'll take him down to China Town. Word.

PJHolybloke wrote:

Taylorman wrote:Looks like its you and TGG in the final PJ...hows THAT for a showdown...

..... ... ... ...

Barnes will ref...

I ain't afraid of no ghosts. I'll take him down to China Town. Word.

Kev says you will lose by a whisker

Gatts wrote:

PJHolybloke wrote:

Taylorman wrote:Looks like its you and TGG in the final PJ...hows THAT for a showdown...

..... ... ... ...

Barnes will ref...

I ain't afraid of no ghosts. I'll take him down to China Town. Word.

Kev says you will lose by a whisker

Kev's 0 from 1 Gatts, so this is me bricking it....

If I were you I'd take Kev for a long drive in the country, and come back without him.

Surely Wales cant blow qualification from here, they should even get away with losing to Fiji this time

PJHolybloke wrote:

Gatts wrote:

PJHolybloke wrote:

Taylorman wrote:Looks like its you and TGG in the final PJ...hows THAT for a showdown...

..... ... ... ...

Barnes will ref...

I ain't afraid of no ghosts. I'll take him down to China Town. Word.

Kev says you will lose by a whisker

Kev's 0 from 1 Gatts, so this is me bricking it....

If I were you I'd take Kev for a long drive in the country, and come back without him.

No PJ, he got it right it was my reading that was wrong. I have never deserted a pusssy in my life, how very dare you

Yeah, OK - gotta look after the pusssy.