How Many Career Wins for Federer ?

Fed's triumph over JWT in London took him above Edberg to sixth on the all-time list of career wins. The late-season flourish meant he'd got more than 60 wins for the umpteenth season in a row. A good 2012 will see Rog, perhaps, overtake the next guy on the list (Agassi with 870 wins) and he could catch John Mac on 875 and even, perhaps in 2013, Vilas on around 920 (depending which stats you're looking at). After that there's no chance - Lendl well over 1,000 and Connors on the next planet. Reckon Fed could certainly get 900. And what are the chances of anyone else doing that ? Rafa? May be. Djoko? Possibly.

I'd 50 next year and 50 afterwards. Vilas being the target but I am pretty sure, Federer doesn't care a iota about that record.

Yeah I agree with Tenez.

It's gonna be tough to put in any more 60+ win seasons.

I think Federer has got max 2-3 seasons left in him. The game today requires top-notch fitness level which Federer can mainain for that period of time. Ater that he won't e able to cope and will drop drastically.
I he had played in the 80s he would've lasted forever ....

I think Nole will outlast Nadal by at least 3 years although he is only one year younger.

I see the chances of him catching Agassi and Mac as quite realistic, but for me the other numbers are pretty much out of reach.

Either way, I'd be very surprised if Federer himself gives much thought to this as a specific goal. Despite his frequent comment about wanting to play on for a number of years to come, I simply don't believe he will stick around in the way that Lendl and Connors did.

I haven't checked the records but would imagine that many of those (late career) Connors wins must have come in a lot of 'low-grade' tournaments. And IIRC he was also being beaten up quite often up by journeymen players who previously wouldn't have lived with him. Connors always said that he just loved being on a tennis court - and who could criticise him for that ? However, with a young family and outside charitable interests I somehow doubt Federer will follow a similar path. Even if tomorrow he suddenly called it a day, the Federer legacy is totally secure.

Broadening this a bit, I wonder if we're gonna see too many players even just reaching double figures in GS from now on. Rafa is already there, but Djoko has started, comparatively late for his target and Murray aint on the scoreboard yet.
Similarly with titles. Rafa will go past 50 and Fed's on 70. But maybe 50 is not gonna be so easy to reach in the future.

sfp : As regards GS figures, I think you're right. I'm sure we haven't seen the last of the 'double figure' players but they're likely to be even rarer than in the past.

It will remain a very exclusive club : only seven members so far (and only four in the open era)

Funnily enough I think Nadal will last as long as Djokovic - his physical downfall is always predicted but never comes - people were saying in 2009 he was finished or had 1-2 seasons left and he's still going strong and if anything suffering less injuries than ever before, including those knees.

Also, Nadal has been playing top level tennis a fair bit longer than Nole so the 1 year age gap isnt relevant. For example Nadal has played 740 matches since turning pro, Nole has played 576...thats more than 1 years difference of matches.

On the other hand I believe Nole's body will not be up to the punishment he puts it through, hence the egg chamber to aid recovery. Yes he might have strong legs but his upper body is relatively weaker and is more susceptible to breaking down - as we've seen. I also believe those massive sliding stretches he does to reach shots out wide, almost doing the splits, will be quite damaging his groin tendons over time.

However, where I'm more concerned re: Nadal is his mind. This has been an unshakeable fortress for many years now but he's been showing signs of cracking this year, and recently talked about a loss of passion for game. In part I believe his relationship with Toni is starting to break down and this will be causing him some anguish with them being a tight knif family. Imagine, how do you tell the guy who's been instrumental in your training and career across your whole life that you fancy a change...? 2011 got off to a bad start by having his dream of the grand slam shattered at AO by injury. I dont he fully recovered mentally from that and then the losses to Nole further made him crumble. The question is whether he can mentally recharge for 2012...physically he's fine but physical damage is so much easier to repair. There are some question marks hanging over him...lets see how he gets on this weekend as he leads out Spain.

lydian wrote:
However, where I'm more concerned re: Nadal is his mind. This has been an unshakeable fortress for many years now but he's been showing signs of cracking this year.

I don;t want to say Lydian but I said this a long time ago. Nadal' mental strength will only be as good as his physique allows him to make a difference. The day his physique won't be enough to make the difference with the others, he will crack...probably quicker than most.

There were signs already early on as he hardly ever started strong in slams rounds but also in slams final on clay. His mental was only getting stronger as he could see Federer losing his edge and sharpness.

lydian wrote:Imagine, how do you tell the guy who's been instrumental in your training and career across your whole life that you fancy a change...?

Javier Piles has been Ferrer's coach since Ferrer was 15 (currently 29), so 14+ years.

Wawrinka's coach, Dimitri Zavialoff, coached him from age 8 till June 2010, about 17 years.

Are you sure that (informed) commentators said in 2009 that he had only "1 or 2 seasons left" ...? I do remember predictions that he might be physically spent by around the age of 27/28, but not 25

Either way, my own view is that if Rafa 're-groups' mentally & physically for the start of 2012 then I fully expect him to have a very strong season. He has frequently come back from prolonged lay-offs and proceeded to impress by swiftly regaining top form.

However ..... IF (and it's a very big if) he were to find himself in a second series of fights-to-the-death versus Novak BUT come out on the losing end once again, then I wonder just how much passion there might be left. Even if his game were still good enough to beat most others, such a loss of passion could be the watershed.

When Borg called it a day at only 25 his standard of play had actually declined relatively little. It was the motivation that had gone and (as he would explain later) that motivation was crucial to keep him at the level he felt he should be at.........

lydian wrote:On the other hand I believe Nole's body will not be up to the punishment he puts it through, hence the egg chamber to aid recovery. Yes he might have strong legs but his upper body is relatively weaker and is more susceptible to breaking down - as we've seen. I also believe those massive sliding stretches he does to reach shots out wide, almost doing the splits, will be quite damaging his groin tendons over time.

I'd think that woudl work in Djoko's favour actually. The lighter the better. The fact that he can hit pacier than Nadal while using half the energy works in his favour. This is what Nadal acknowledges himself: "He takes teh ball early".


And that means he can achieve as much power if not more, with less. And again, this is why nadal was not capable of exploiting Novak's injury in that USO11. He was even more down physically.

sirfredperry wrote:Broadening this a bit, I wonder if we're gonna see too many players even just reaching double figures in GS from now on. Rafa is already there, but Djoko has started, comparatively late for his target and Murray aint on the scoreboard yet.
Similarly with titles. Rafa will go past 50 and Fed's on 70. But maybe 50 is not gonna be so easy to reach in the future.

It would be very interesting to see a comparative earnings chart (not just raw figures but including inflation etc)
Eg. How much was 500 wins worth in the 70' 80s up to now.

Looks like 950 around, 50-60 this year and another 80 in in 2 yrs and will retire.

Tenez, fair points but not quite relevant (although lighter isnt always better, stronger musculature is joint-protective).

What I'm talking about is the longer term, not the here and now in specific matches. I'm surmising that Nole may not be able to sustain his upper body without injury cf. to Nadal - whether or not he puts the same amount of effort into any particular match. He may still break down quicker operating at 75% of Nadal's effort because he doesn have the same level of muscular support and protection - i.e. the tendons, ligaments take more of a battering. Muscles repair and restore much quicker than connective tissue - this is where Nadal is able to not carry too much injury, his muscles take alot of the beating but yes use more energy in a given match. Its a dichotomy. We have seen Nole's shoulder break down more than once now and underlying inflammation or damage may be building up...so he needs to be careful to avoid a serious rotor cuff issue. The other aspect to consider is that some of his stroke production may not be as technically smooth at a micro level so that can also wear joints more than others. For example, I dont think Djokovic's serve is as smooth as action as Nadal's - and we see the shoulder issues he has, and the strong rotation he uses on the DHBH will also exacerbate that too.
Again, its all supposition...the next 12 mths will likely reveal all.

I see Fed landing up 3rd with just Lendl and Connors ahead of him.

"What I'm talking about is the longer term, not the here and now in specific matches. I'm surmising that Nole may not be able to sustain his upper body without injury cf. to Nadal "

now, why is that?

I tend to agree with Lydian; I just can't see Djokovic's body standing up to what he does to it for long. I'd think differently were it not for the many shoulder problems already.

Nadal's got more chance but I am frankly wary of how the knee problems just went away.

I think Rafa is much better at holding his position on the basline and sending everyone else scurrying nowadays, so that grinding and retrieving that he used to do against everyone is less in evidence.

Novak certainly worries me with those splits - it's an accident waiting to happen - of course he is the one person this season who has consistently had Rafa on the run, so I think the latter's physical well-being is, in no small part, in the hands of the former!

But to answer OP - if Federer is planning to play 2013 (apparently he has chosen his gear), I am going to guess a further 90 wins for him.

If he plays 2013 (he's put out his 2012 schedule and says he thinks 18-24 months ahead) I reckon he'll end up posting about 900 wins from about 1,110 matches and maybe he's got about 5-6 more tournament wins left in him to end up in the region of 75 tournament wins.

That would put him well under Connors and Lendl in the longevity/overall win stakes, but there or thereabouts with Vilas, McEnroe, and Agassi. IF he is playing the record book he must be far more interested in 'quality' than 'quantity' records.

I agree with others that such long-running carreers at or near the top are set to become a thing of the past unless steps are taken to reduce the physicality of the game.