Ireland vs Wales - WELSH TEAM ANNOUNCED AT 11:50 THIS MORNING...!

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Ireland Six Nations 2012 Squad

15 -Rob Kearney (UCD/Leinster)
14 - Tommy Bowe (Ospreys)
13 - Keith Earls (Young Munster/Munster)
12 - Gordon D'Arcy (Lansdowne/Leinster)
11 - Andrew Trimble (Ballymena/Ulster)
10 - Jonathan Sexton (St. Mary's College/Leinster)
9 - Conor Murray (Garryowen/Munster)
1 - Cian Healy (Clontarf/Leinster)
2 - Rory Best (Banbridge/Ulster)
3 - Mike Ross (Clontarf/Leinster)
4 - Donncha O'Callaghan (Cork Constitution/Munster)
5 - Paul O'Connell (Young Munster/Munster) Captain
6 - Stephen Ferris (Dungannon/Ulster)
7 - Sean O'Brien (Clontarf/Leinster)
8 - Jamie Heaslip (Naas/Leinster)

Replacements:

16 -Sean Cronin (St. Mary's College/Leinster)
17 - Tom Court (Malone/Ulster)
18 - Donnacha Ryan (Shannon/Munster)
19 - Peter O'Mahony (Cork Constitution/Munster)
20 - Eoin Reddan (Lansdowne/Leinster)
21 - Ronan O'Gara (Cork Constitution/Munster)
22 - Fergus McFadden (Old Belvedere/Leinster)



WALES SQUAD

BACKS

Scrumhalf
Mike PHILLIPS (BAYONNE)
Lloyd WILLIAMS (CARDIFF BLUES)
Rhys WEBB (OSPREYS)

Flyhalf
Rhys PRIESTLAND (SCARLETS)
James HOOK (PERPIGNAN)

Centre 3/4s
Jamie ROBERTS (CARDIFF BLUES)
Jonathan DAVIES (SCARLETS)
Scott WILLIAMS (SCARLETS)
Gavin HENSON (CARDIFF BLUES)
Ashley BECK (OSPREYS – Uncapped)

Wing 3/4s
George NORTH (SCARLETS)
Leigh HALFPENNY (CARDIFF BLUES)
Alex CUTHBERT (CARDIFF BLUES)
Harry ROBINSON (CARDIFF BLUES)

Fullbacks
Liam WILLIAMS (SCARLETS – Uncapped)
Lee BYRNE (ASM CLERMONT AUVERGNE)

FORWARDS

Tightheads
Craig MITCHELL (EXETER CHIEFS)
Adam JONES (OSPREYS)

Looseheads
Ryan BEVINGTON (OSPREYS)
Gethin JENKINS (CARDIFF BLUES)
Rhys GILL (SARACENS)

Adaptable to both sides of the Scrum
Paul JAMES (OSPREYS)
Rhodri JONES (SCARLETS – Uncapped)

Hookers
Matthew REES (SCARLETS)
Huw BENNETT (OSPREYS)
Ken OWENS (SCARLETS)

Locks
Bradley DAVIES (BLUES)
Ian EVANS (OSPREYS)
Lou REED (SCARLETS – Uncapped)

Back Five Option
Ryan JONES (OSPREYS)

Blindside Flank Forward
Dan LYDIATE (NEWPORT GWENT DRAGONS)

Openside Flank Forward
Sam WARBURTON (CARDIFF BLUES, CAPTAIN)
Justin TIPURIC (OSPREYS)

Number 8s
Toby FALETAU (Dragons)
Andy POWELL (Sale)


Its a month away, just 31 days to the opening game for Wales and Ireland. The excitement of the start of the tournament is as thrilling as it has ever been. I think we are hoping that both sides will show some of the new talent on display in the HEC given their chances at International level. A mix of experience blended in well to temper the exuberance of youth when it is needed.


How do the teams match up historically?

First ever Ireland vs Wales was at Lansdowne Road, Dublin on the 28th of January 1882.

Ireland nil – 2G, 4T Wales
Try: Evans
Bridie
Clapp
Baker Jones

Con: Lewis (2)


The winning result for Wales was their first ever victory in International Rugby. Since then the two Nations have played for the following results.

117 Played 117
47 Wins 64
64 Losses 47
6 Draws 6
164 Tries 201
85 Conversions 98
131 Penalties 126
21 Drop Goals 33
1227 Points 1353
39.66% Success Rate 54.31%

Last meeting was in the Quarter Finals of the RWC 2011. Wales were victorious in a classic encounter. Both nations fielded exceptionally good teams that had done well in their previous pool matches.

The game previous was in the 2011 Six Nations with another win for Wales, controversial due to the try that should not have been allowed scored by Mike Phillips.

I have a feeling Stephen Jones will be included as a back up flyhalf. Similar to last year. They will more likely phase him out than cut him off.

maestegmafia wrote:I have a feeling Stephen Jones will be included as a back up flyhalf. Similar to last year. They will more likely phase him out than cut him off.

+1

Although Wales have beaten Ireland twice this year I certainly don't see as favourites in any area, they are a good team. We are going to have to be in exceptional form to beat them.

Its gonna be a great battle to start the championship off with. I certainly think we stand a chance, but expect Ireland to be very similar to their best, unlucky to be missing O'Driscoll but not a massive weakness because of it.

Leinster and Munster as well as Ulster have all been playing very good quality rugby this year, we cant say the same for the regions in Wales. They are all serious contenders in Europe, where as the regions are starting to find the HEC tougher as it gets nearer to crunch time in the knock out phase, non guaranteed to qualify.

bedfordwelsh wrote:I would say:

Wales have edge in Front Row

Ireland edge in 2nd row

Back row all square

I would sort of agree. Wales have a superior scrum, Ireland a better lineout. Both have excellent but different backrow units and depending on which side can impose their gameplan and dominate posession/territory will determine which back row shines the most.

In the last match the Welsh had a good build up, the backrow were on fire. If Wales can hit those standards from the off then they can make a game of it, if not its going to be very tough going..

Has the ref been named ? easier to decide who has the edge then.
I'm not suggesting bias it's just that some refs see things differently to others.

Too much was made of the backrow battle last time out I think. The Irish backrow had a good 1st half with Warburton coming strong later in the game as Ireland played more and more catch up rugby and increasingly found their attackers isolated through taking risks.

The big factors last time were that the Welsh midfied were able to get over the gainline too easily and Ireland were constantly on the backfoot, whereas Ireland were too predictable in attack.

The fact that Wales scored early too meant that they were able to control the game whereas Ireland panicked and played too much silly rugby.

rodders,

Whats Ireland likely side?

This is waht I would expect to see from us

Jenkins
Rees
A Jones
Davies
Evans
Lydiate
Faletau
Warburton

Phillips
Priestland

Cuthbert
Roberts
JD2
North

Halfpenny

Though there is a trail of thought that the back 3 could be:

Halfpenny
Byrne
North

I expect to see something like:

15 - Kearney
14 - Bowe
13 - Earls (I'd rather Cave)
12 - McFadden
11 - Trimble or Fitzgerald (Id go for Trimble)
10 - Sexton
9 - Murray

8 - Heaslip
7 - O'Brien
6 - Ferris
5 - O'Connell
4 - Ryan
3 - Ross
2 - Best
1 - Healy

I would guess Kidney will go with something like:

15 Kearney
14 Bowe
13 Earls
12 D'arcy
11 Fitzgerald/Trimble
10 Sexton
9 Murray
8 Heaslip
7 O'Brien
6 Ferris
5 O'Connell(c)
4 Ryan
3 Ross
2 Best
1 Healy

Bench: Court, Cronin, O'Callaghan, Jennings, Reddan, Trimble/Fitzgerald/McFadden

I would go with McFadden and Cave in the centre, Toner instead of O'Callaghan and drop Bowe but I can't see Kidney making too many changes from the RWC side.

Great minds Dodger!

Thats two pretty evenly matched sides acroos the board, would suggest that we have edge in midfield but that has a lot to do with BOD being out.

I've gone for Wales....despite hormones...

Good 6N day out but in international rugby terms something of a second division sideshow.

Wales won fairly comfortably on neutral turf in the RWC - but Ireland are very strong at home and Wales haven't developed the mental hardness to tough out a marginal one.

Ireland by 10-15.

The closer we get to the match teh less confident I am.

If the two teams are as above (Bedfords team is pretty spot on for Wales) then there are some really interesting match ups.

Scrum time is going to be interesting Healy vs Jones is a massive clash. Even so, I think overall the welsh front row will have the edge and our second rows will provide enough grunt. A couple of penalties Wales' way.

Lineouts is obviously an achilles heel for wales and has been for far too long, Ireland will expect to dominate securing their own ball and stealing/disrupting ours.

The breakdown is critical with two of the most settled backrows in the NH. Ireland have more power Wales have more pace. Faletau is in the form of his life though and that could be crucial. Ireland will need to vary their tactics from the RWC but they know that. Wales to win a couple of turnovers but will struggle against Irelands pick and go. If they make use of the quick ball then Irelands defence can be breached. Similarly Ireland could batter Wales at the breakdown flooding the area disrupt welsh ball and score points around the fringes. Mike Phillips defence around the breakdown needs to be spot on there.

Halfbacks I think are pretty much even if Priestland can reproduce the form of the RWC. but its his first visit to Dublin

Its in the midfield Wales should have a clear edge, Ireland without their talisman relying on Darcy and Earls to cope with Roberts and Davies. Wales should take advantage if Priestland is bringing the Doc into the game.

Again I think the Welsh Back three should have an edge. North and Cuthbert are monsters. However Kearney and Bowe are quality and will do damage at some point. Personally I dont rate either Trimble or Fitzgerald but I guess I am biased. If Byrne is on form and some people say he is then he is a great player to have in the side. So either Wales back three wins it for me.

On paper I think Wales should win I think our forwards will win enough ball to free our backs and Irelands midfield defence will crack. However, Dublin in the rain and wind is what Welsh nightmares are made of . I was in India for Henrys last game and found the only place in delhi that served beer and showed the match. So much confidence before the game shellshocked afterwards.

roddersm wrote:

bedfordwelsh wrote:I would say:

Wales have edge in Front Row

Ireland edge in 2nd row

Back row all square

I would sort of agree. Wales have a superior scrum, Ireland a better lineout. Both have excellent but different backrow units and depending on which side can impose their gameplan and dominate posession/territory will determine which back row shines the most.

This could tell us what the Irish back row are truly capable of. Ferris/SOB/Heaslip were hailed primarily as battering rams in the run up to the last game and indeed they have often profited from wars of attrition ala Australia. Not only were Wales able to play a more open game than Ireland would have preferred but Lydiate/Warburton/Faletau were able to nullify their opposite numbers very effectively. I actually regard that game as their proudest performance yet as a back row, though the opening game against SA was also excellent despite the result.

If LWF (provided all are fit) are able to nullify the Irish counterparts just as successfully it'll go a long way to showing us what the Irish back row can do beyond battering. Warbs in particular put in some key tackles and some top class turnovers last time, would love to see the same again.

The Irish lads Heaslip and SOB where looking very good vs the blues last week. Made a nice try for SOB running through the cavernous hole in the Blues ten channel.

I think if Wales have their first choice front row out they should have the upper hand.

Unfortunately as pointed out above, this all matters so much on who the referees is

Wales' last two outings against Oz were unimpressive. It was back to the old situation of being competitive for 60 minites or thereabouts. If you are looking for a true reflection of form then don't consider the WC QF. The HC is where to look. And what do you have? Irish teams storming along and the Welsh struggling. Add to the mix the revenge factor and home advantage and you are looking at a decent Irish victory.

Many Welsh here are saying, presumptiously, that if they get a win, it will set them up well for the rest of the championship. That maybe true but the same goes for Ireland ,and at this stage, Ireland should be favourites to prevail.

mankiaow wrote: at this stage, Ireland should be favourites to prevail.

I don't accept that. Wales have won the last two meetings. The first one may have been controversial but the last meeting was fairly comprehensive. Wales need more of the same whereas Ireland need to find something extra.

The performances of the provinces are a source for optimism but once the players come into the national set up there are no guarantees that Kidney and the coaches will get the best out of the them and get the right balance and gameplan. In fact I'd be surprised if they did based on previous experience.

Wales should be marginal favourites for this one.

I think a forth coming match should be judged on recent form not on last game against the rivals they are about to play. Wales last victory over Ireland was a good one, a resounding one, but in the three games after Wales failed to be so assertive.

Maybe the impact of so many tough fixtures was just too much, especially noticeable against the Aussies, or maybe the opposition figured Wales out and nullified their positives.

I think both nations regions/provinces, players, need two good weekends in the HEC to find where they are at before we have a decent reflection on their prospects for the Opening Six Nations match.

But on current form, I don't think Wales look likely to be as good as they were last time they played Ireland.

Referee W Barnes

Touch Judges D Pearson and S Terheege

TMO G Warren

SafeAsMilk wrote:So Wales will only lose if they have injuries or if the ref rules against them.

Right, good that we have that one sorted.

Are you really surprised though?

roddersm wrote:

mankiaow wrote: at this stage, Ireland should be favourites to prevail.

I don't accept that. Wales have won the last two meetings. The first one may have been controversial but the last meeting was fairly comprehensive. Wales need more of the same whereas Ireland need to find something extra.

The performances of the provinces are a source for optimism but once the players come into the national set up there are no guarantees that Kidney and the coaches will get the best out of the them and get the right balance and gameplan. In fact I'd be surprised if they did based on previous experience.

Wales should be marginal favourites for this one.

I think you are being overly-pessimistic. Kidney is getting a hard time because of that game and rightly so. But it doesn't mean he is not able to adapt. All this talk of him being ultra-conservative is over the top. I think the shackles will be off and he will give them a bit more of a licence to play. In fact, I think that is what he was trying to do in last year's 6N, but the WC cup came around and it got a bit like squeaky bum time. He experimented in the warm-ups(which is what they were for), and pretty much got it right up until the Welsh game.

Wales or their regions have not set the world on fire since that game.

mankiaow wrote:
Wales or their regions have not set the world on fire since that game.

The regions have been competitive though and that bodes reasonably well, a lot will be thought of the out comes of hte next two weekends as I mentioned earlier.

Lloyd burns is out with a neck injury

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/rugby_union/welsh/16533786.stm

I don't think the performance of the regions is a brilliant indicator of how the national team will do. I really think their coaching, team cohesion, morale and support are not at the same level as Irish provinces. When their best players come together under Gatland and Edwards they can become a different prospect. Especially in front of their home crowd in the MS. The fact that it's in Dublin is a big positive for us.

Wales first game traditionally indicates how they'll do in the rest of tournament. Lose and they can become a shambles. Win and they can take the title. Ireland on the other hand tend to start slowly but they can usually recover from a poor start and end the tournament well. Ireland v Wales is nearly always an entertaining contest (apart from the 2011 6 Nations dirge). Even if us Irish have bad memories of the World Cup match, it was a great contest at times. But Wales managed to keep us out and score at the crucial moments to win quite comfortably.

Can't wait for this one. Hopefully we'll get sweet revenge.

The one positive we'll certainly have (and many people over on another thread think it's a nightmare about to unfold); the one positive thing is that this time, we'll have a fit 13. A player who is not dodging hits or trying to use a strong shoulder to protect a very weak one. Wales won the game - no argument at all. They were all over us at times but it was also so very obvious that O'Driscoll was in discomfort throughout the game.

So is an injured O'Driscoll still a more dangerous prospect than a player who many have doubts about at 13? We'll see. But I'm happier that the 13 will be free to think about his job and not worrying about contact

SecretFly wrote:The one positive we'll certainly have (and many people over on another thread think it's a nightmare about to unfold); the one positive thing is that this time, we'll have a fit 13.

I think you have a lot more going for you than opting not to field an injured outside center.

Feckless Rogue wrote:I don't think the performance of the regions is a brilliant indicator of how the national team will do. I really think their coaching, team cohesion, morale and support are not at the same level as Irish provinces. When their best players come together under Gatland and Edwards they can become a different prospect. Especially in front of their home crowd in the MS. The fact that it's in Dublin is a big positive for us.

Maybe your right, I would certainly like to think so. Apart from the Dublin bit, that is going to be hard, you guys have built up a real fortress there. Great stadium, I am looking forward to visiting.

mankiaow wrote:Wales' last two outings against Oz were unimpressive. It was back to the old situation of being competitive for 60 minites or thereabouts. If you are looking for a true reflection of form then don't consider the WC QF. The HC is where to look. And what do you have? Irish teams storming along and the Welsh struggling. Add to the mix the revenge factor and home advantage and you are looking at a decent Irish victory.

Many Welsh here are saying, presumptiously, that if they get a win, it will set them up well for the rest of the championship. That maybe true but the same goes for Ireland ,and at this stage, Ireland should be favourites to prevail.

Where have we heard this before? Oh yeah something along the lines of "Ireland will beat Wales because their teams do well in Heineken Cups" being spouted out just before that world cup quarter final. Munster and Leinter always do well the Heineken Cup and this year is no different. But since when has club form been an indicator? It never really has.

It is true that we lost to one of the worlds best teams but that just told us something we already knew, that we are not quite up there with the best in the world. I can't see the team being much different than it was for that Aus game so Wales should be a lot more settled than Ireland which could be the difference between winning and losing.

I think we're going over old ground here, Morgan. You've heard it before because it is relevent. Leinster and Ireland in '09, England won last year with the help of Ashton , Foden, Hartley and Lawes from Northhampton, who reached the HC final. The French teams have been consistently at the business end of the HC as has their national side in the 6N.

The relevance of the HC to the 6N may not suit your argument, as it shows that the Welsh regions are not topping their tables with only one having a chance to qualify. If that form was reflected by Wales, you would be looking at another average 6N performance from them.

Or maybe they will buck the trend.

SecretFly wrote:The one positive we'll certainly have (and many people over on another thread think it's a nightmare about to unfold); the one positive thing is that this time, we'll have a fit 13. A player who is not dodging hits or trying to use a strong shoulder to protect a very weak one. Wales won the game - no argument at all. They were all over us at times but it was also so very obvious that O'Driscoll was in discomfort throughout the game.

So is an injured O'Driscoll still a more dangerous prospect than a player who many have doubts about at 13? We'll see. But I'm happier that the 13 will be free to think about his job and not worrying about contact

its a good point. ireland will defend extremely flat in order to prevent that midfield advantage that Wales will exploit with JR, and i expect them to use the maul- at which they are expert- to slow Welsh ball. I expect an Irish crowd to give an edge but i do not think Irish anger over last years 6 Nations or the RWC will help them, the fact is our backs are more potent and key, our defence is better. At RWC the talk was all about how their forwards woudl dominate and this just did not happen; if we put out a Lions front row and that amazing back row i feel we will dominate; the Irish back row was anonymous at RWC v Wales. In addition a form Mike Philipps adds that extra physical presence at the breakdown.

I am sure Ireland could beat Wales on Feb 4 but I think they will lose

Really looking forward to this match. Will Ireland have learnt from their WC match? I reckon it will be very close once again. I'd have the home side marginally in front as favourites but I'm also impressed with the way Wales performed in NZ against them.

HC form isn't relevant, Ireland can't bring on Pienarr, Howlett, Isca etc

Linebreaker wrote:Really looking forward to this match. Will Ireland have learnt from their WC match? I reckon it will be very close once again. I'd have the home side marginally in front as favourites but I'm also impressed with the way Wales performed in NZ against them.

The win in the Quarter finals is starting to seem a long time ago now...

The lads need a good training camp prior to this game to start hitting that form again.

In Poland again? Surely you guys can build a state-of-the-art freezer near one of your seaside resorts? The Polish women are already in the UK, no?

It's in Poland but not Spala

Linebreaker wrote:In Poland again? Surely you guys can build a state-of-the-art freezer near one of your seaside resorts? The Polish women are already in the UK, no?

Just go to Dowlais Top, thats the coldest bl88dy place on earth.

bedfordwelsh wrote:

Linebreaker wrote:In Poland again? Surely you guys can build a state-of-the-art freezer near one of your seaside resorts? The Polish women are already in the UK, no?

Just go to Dowlais Top, thats the coldest bl88dy place on earth.

I would say there are plenty of attractions in Poland. The beautiful Polish women being one of them.

Just a short three day trip to Poland this time.

maes,

I am sure there a few places in Cardiff that have beautiful Polish women in them

bedfordwelsh wrote:maes,

I am sure there a few places in Cardiff that have beautiful Polish women in them

Im sure there are...!

I must admit though over four years, with what three or four Welsh training camps, it would be more cost effective for the WRU to build their own version of Spala.

The idea is that they are out of their comfort zone , away from freinds, family and the Welsh media though. And besides, do you think Poland is expensive ?

Ireland to win as I feel home advantage is massive.Even Italy are now a handful at their place.

That is a good point, I also heard that it is not a five star retreat. It is very much like boot camp without frills or much media attention.

Maybe we need to build the Freezer in North Wales then?

Again I mention Dowlais Top and add Merthyr to it certainly no frills there

Before people get on high horse I am an Ebbw boy so I can say that lol

So once you build the facility... you already have the beautiful Polish women.

Then it's just a question of some good quality white towels.

maestegmafia wrote:That is a good point, I also heard that it is not a five star retreat. It is very much like boot camp without frills or much media attention.

Maybe we need to build the Freezer in North Wales then?

There's a North Wales ?

Allegedly...!

mankiaow wrote:I think we're going over old ground here, Morgan. You've heard it before because it is relevent. Leinster and Ireland in '09, England won last year with the help of Ashton , Foden, Hartley and Lawes from Northhampton, who reached the HC final. The French teams have been consistently at the business end of the HC as has their national side in the 6N.

The relevance of the HC to the 6N may not suit your argument, as it shows that the Welsh regions are not topping their tables with only one having a chance to qualify. If that form was reflected by Wales, you would be looking at another average 6N performance from them.

Or maybe they will buck the trend.

09 was coincedence. When England won the 6 Nations and Leicester won the H-cup, it was more down to the same players. As for the French, they're the kings of European rugby, but only two of their teams have won the competition. Again, that points to the players produced or in many cases bought at a particular club. There has been countless more examples not just in europe, but in world rugby that club form doesn't transition into international form. It is only the Irish who latch on to this belief, as you are doing now.

Ah it is relevent Morgannwg.

Dominant Leicester and Wasps sides = England World Cup winning team

South Africa won the Tri Nations and a Lions tour in a the same year as the Bulls dominated Super Rugby. This year the Reds won the Super 15 and Australia won the Tri Nations. Many New Zealand Tri Nations victories correspond to Crusaders winning Super rugby. And the years New Zealand don't do as well tended to be the years Crusaders didn't do as well. The club form is a good indicator of where the best players are.

It's not rock solid rule though. Ireland hasn't been as good or as successful as Munster or Leinster. We all know that. And the Welsh regions have never set Europe on fire. But the national team have in '05 and '08.