French Open 2012: History in the Making

Which piece of Grand Slam tennis history will occur at this years French Open? You the esteemed members of 606 v2 can select a prediction!

I have voted for The obvious (to me).

Except the fifth (Somebody else to win), all others are historical achievements. I would suggest waiting till the end of Clay Masters to predict with better clarity what happens at FO 2012.

I don't want to jinx anyone, so i'll say Rafa hehe

If SA comes complaining about the incredible FedFanBoying on this thread, I would for once have to agree with him. How can anyone make the Swiss favourite for the French Open???

All he ever does is complain, Chyd.

He's a very lost soul.

Chydremion wrote:How can anyone make the Swiss favourite for the French Open???

Don't forget that in the last 7 editions of the French Open, Federer has lost only to Nadal (5x) and Söderling (1x).
And the year when Rafa lost early, Federer immediately won the title.

In the past six years, the 12 finalist places have been shared by just Nadal (5), Federer (5) and Söderling (2).

Yes, Andy and esp. Novak have been getting much stronger lately and maybe they are favorites too, but I wouldn't count Roger out completely, not yet.

I like Novak's chances if he is healthy. Frankly, I would be very surprised if he doesn't have to take Rafa out one more time in a slam final, and i think this one at RG might even be a more gruelling and brutal encounter than the AO. Although Novak really made that match tougher than it had to be blowing it at the end of the 4th set and not making better use of his break opportunities. Winning 4 grandslams in a row will be an accomplishment that not even Roger and Rafa have managed a really remarkable feat. He would tie Rod laver for 4 straight slams and would be two behind Don Budge's record of 6 straight slams. It would go a long way in further enhancing his legacy.

My primary concern is for the health of the players. Such gruelling tennis is detrimental to the long term health of the sport.

Based on the Sep-Nov 2011, it is very likely that events in this window will become defunct due to lack of participation over the years.

Novak for me. History will be made whoever wins it. If Federer wins it - only man in the open era to win every slam twice.

If Djokovic meets Nadal at the FO I expect he will beat him far easily than he did in AUS. Why? Because Nadal has no end game against Djokovic. He has no way of finishing off points. He doesn't hit many winners anyway and the kind of shots that could be winners against other players tend to come back against Djoker because the Djoker has a very strong defense and also does not tire easily. Additionally the Djoker does not give The Nadull many free points through UE's.

Hence, I expect these problems to be magnified on the clay. Additionally, in the AUS final The Nadull served bigger and better than Djoker and thus got some free points on serve. This will be negated on clay where the Djoker will stand further back to receive and thus get his racket on virtually every serve.

It is no coincidence that the easiest victories for the Djoker against The Nadull last season were on clay.



emancipator

I hope someone out of top 4 wins it.

I wouldn't mind that either Jahu, bring in some new competition at the top. i hope Novak wins it but if he can't win it I wouldn't mind if someone new got to lift the trophy or maybe JMDP gets #2.

Any other tournament but the French and I would back Novak. But twould be a brave man/woman/hobgoblin to bet against Rafa at RG. Having said that, it would not be a surprise to see Djoko take it - I just think that Rafa will be harder to beat at RG than anywhere else.
Fed "spoiled" the dream final last year and could do so again. You could say that last year's French was Fed's best - in some ways even better performances than when he - somewhat shakily (Haas, delPotty) - won in 09.
It's Rafa for me, though.

At the French I coudl see a few players beating Nadal. Especially if they keep those fast balls. I wonder BTW whether the clay TMS will be on Babolat this time or will they keep Dunlop like last year.

With Babolat, expect Delpo, Djoko, Berdych, Tsonga to create the upset v Nadal.

They would have to be using BB pellets for Tsonga to have a chance at beating Nadal on clay.

Is last years Babolat ball guaranteed to be used this year as well?

Made the FO nice to watch with a little faster surface.

So Jahu what you are saying is you have no problem seeing a traditionally slow condition tournament made faster but you'll be the same person moaning about. how Wimbledon is slow? They could as well keep the BB balls and less dressing of clay on court but we know who won it again last year despite that, don't we?

emancipator wrote:If Djokovic meets Nadal at the FO I expect he will beat him far easily than he did in AUS. Why? Because Nadal has no end game against Djokovic. He has no way of finishing off points. He doesn't hit many winners anyway and the kind of shots that could be winners against other players tend to come back against Djoker because the Djoker has a very strong defense and also does not tire easily. Additionally the Djoker does not give The Nadull many free points through UE's.

Hence, I expect these problems to be magnified on the clay. Additionally, in the AUS final The Nadull served bigger and better than Djoker and thus got some free points on serve. This will be negated on clay where the Djoker will stand further back to receive and thus get his racket on virtually every serve.

It is no coincidence that the easiest victories for the Djoker against The Nadull last season were on clay.



emancipator

Absolutely, Nadal has no chance at all against Djokovic on clay.

Again he will be praying to see Federer in Djokovics half as the only way to avoid the Serb.

The only way Nadal beats Djokovic is if Djokovic starts going for winners quickly. Nadal literally has the same chance beating a normal Djokovic as HRT Cosworth have winning the F1 constructors championship.

I think Nadal will win. It might be his swan song as well.

Djoko to win and hold all 4 at the same time.

Nadal to make it 7.

Even though Djokovic has beaten him at Wimbledon, New York and Melbourne, Nadal taking a time out in February is smart play.

Nadal v Djokovic on French Clay is a mountainous task.

6 for Federer?

That is generous.

Manojchandra wrote:I have voted for The obvious (to me).

I think we all did

Go on own up who voted for Murray?

hawkeye wrote:Go on own up who voted for Murray?

You?

hawkeye wrote:Go on own up who voted for Murray?

Pathetic comment.

Is it such a blasphemous crime that someone has voted for Andy Murray? After all he is world No.4, is a triple slam finalist and reach the semis at RG last year. By the way it wasn't me as I voted for Rafael Nadal who is the clay master and has been for a number of years.

CaledonianCraig wrote:

hawkeye wrote:Go on own up who voted for Murray?

Pathetic comment.

Is it such a blasphemous crime that someone has voted for Andy Murray? After all he is world No.4, is a triple slam finalist and reach the semis at RG last year. By the way it wasn't me as I voted for Rafael Nadal who is the clay master and has been for a number of years.

Why so? One person had voted that Murray would win his first slam at FO. This clearly was an unusual choice but no one had put forward their reasoning as to why they believed Murray would win this slam. Would you not like to see their reasoning?

Hawky wasn't it you who said it was unusual that people weren't backing Murray for the FO on another thread?

legendkillar wrote:Hawky wasn't it you who said it was unusual that people weren't backing Murray for the FO on another thread?

Ha ha! Are you talking to me? If so it was me and I'm not surprised that someone is predicting a Murray win at the French Open. I look forward to seeing the reasoning behind it.

legendkiller

There are now two votes for Murray to win FO. Admit it. It was you wasn't it?

I didn't vote for Murray, but I can see an argument that could suggest Murray has a chance:

1) Murray had his best clay season last year suggesting an improvement on the clay.

2) He narrowly lost to Djokovic at the Rome Masters semi-final last year 1-6 6-3 6-7(2) - a clay tournament. Djokovic then went on to beat Nadal in straight sets in the final 6-4 6-4.

3) He narrowly lost to Nadal at the Monte-Carlo Masters semi-final after a near 3-hour battle 4–6, 6–2, 1–6, and after sustaining an elbow injury (he withdrew from the next tournament). Another clay tournament.

4) He reached the French Open semi-final for the first time in his career and only dropped two sets in reaching the semis. However he lost to Rafael Nadal, 4–6 5–7 4–6 in the semi-final.

5) When facing Novak Djokovic at the AO 2011 tournament he was well beaten losing 4–6 2–6 3–6 but a year later in 2012 he showed an amazing improvement in performance narrowly losing to Djokovic 3–6 6–3 7–6 1–6 5–7. The improvement in performance was believed to be largely due to three weeks of coaching / mentoring from Ivan Lendl.

6) With another 5 months of coaching / mentoring from Lendl, this might be enough to move Murray from a French Open Semi-Finalist to a French Open winner.

hawkeye wrote:legendkiller

There are now two votes for Murray to win FO. Admit it. It was you wasn't it?

You can see who I voted for.

And it was you that remarked on another thread about why Andy wasn't backed to win the FO.

Non?

I see that Steve Shemilt of the BBC reads 606v2: "French Open 2012: How history can be made at Roland Garros"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/tennis/17860376

Just read what I wrote earlier in the year. Even more so now d I go for Rafa now following those two wins over Djoko on clay. I think this tournament is going to be a cakewalk for Nadal. Only real interest is in who comes runner-up and makes the semis. Probably asking a lot of Murray to reach the last four again and I don't think Fed will get to the final - and he certainly won't if he's in Rafa's half of the draw.
Not sure if I really want to see Djoko winning. I like him but I'm not sure if he's really an all-time great that should be winning four Slams in a row.
Having said that, if he does it - particularly (and presumably) by beating Rafa - then it's an amazing achievement.

To be honest I don't see a lot wrong with that article Nore Staat. All perfectly valid points really.

I went for Rafael Nadal earlier in the year before the clay season began and I see no reason to change. He is simply a cut above the rest on this surface. If he has an off day it will be Novak and Roger ready to pick up the pieces. As for the other player in the article I'd sooner see Andy pull out and allow that back injury to clear up as his better chances of wins come on grass and hard courts.

Not given to predictions normally but Roland Garros 2012 is Rafa´s to lose

I am thinking maybe Berdy or Delpo will make a splash at RG this year.

legendkillarV2 wrote:I am thinking maybe Berdy or Delpo will make a splash at RG this year.

If you mean make a splash by reaching the semis then perhaps Berdych will but not Del Potro. Sorry but we keep hearing people salivating about him but he grossly has flattered to deceive this year. In any case I can't see either reaching the final in my opinion.

CaledonianCraig wrote:

legendkillarV2 wrote:I am thinking maybe Berdy or Delpo will make a splash at RG this year.

If you mean make a splash by reaching the semis then perhaps Berdych will but not Del Potro. Sorry but we keep hearing people salivating about him but he grossly has flattered to deceive this year. In any case I can't see either reaching the final in my opinion.

A lot of people didn't fancy him at the US Open in 2009 and we all know how that ended up.

I agree with you CC I did have high hopes for Delpo making a break for it this year but he seems to be in a place he cannot progress from IMO. Unless there are some shock exits in the first week I cannot even see him making the QF´s-
Berdych is always races to the line and then falls flat on his face as soon as he sees the top 3.

Berdych is always races to the line and then falls flat on his face as soon as he sees the top 3

Think Federer may disagree with that. Oh and Nadal.

When he beats them in a slam I might agree with you LK

Ummmm Wimbledon 2010?

legendkillarV2 wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:

legendkillarV2 wrote:I am thinking maybe Berdy or Delpo will make a splash at RG this year.

If you mean make a splash by reaching the semis then perhaps Berdych will but not Del Potro. Sorry but we keep hearing people salivating about him but he grossly has flattered to deceive this year. In any case I can't see either reaching the final in my opinion.

A lot of people didn't fancy him at the US Open in 2009 and we all know how that ended up.

Yes when he was in far better form though. Sorry but we are talking about a different Del Potro here in my opinion.

CaledonianCraig wrote:

legendkillarV2 wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:

legendkillarV2 wrote:I am thinking maybe Berdy or Delpo will make a splash at RG this year.

If you mean make a splash by reaching the semis then perhaps Berdych will but not Del Potro. Sorry but we keep hearing people salivating about him but he grossly has flattered to deceive this year. In any case I can't see either reaching the final in my opinion.

A lot of people didn't fancy him at the US Open in 2009 and we all know how that ended up.

Yes when he was in far better form though. Sorry but we are talking about a different Del Potro here in my opinion.

He is very much the same guy apart from the injury he suffered a couple of years back has restricted the power in his BH.

I shall wait and see.

legendkillarV2 wrote:Ummmm Wimbledon 2010?

Did I miss it .. did he win Wimbledon ... well if he did Im sorry my mistake ;)

Well that is a contradiction is it not? After all he is not the same Del Potro, if by your own admittance power on his backhand is not the same.

It is just that have we seen him in this clay season getting to semis and really troubling the top players? No. That is why I discount him as a true contender. I'd actually expect Raonic to have a better run at RG.

CaledonianCraig wrote:Well that is a contradiction is it not? After all he is not the same Del Potro, if by your own admittance power on his backhand is not the same.

It is just that have we seen him in this clay season getting to semis and really troubling the top players? No. That is why I discount him as a true contender. I'd actually expect Raonic to have a better run at RG.

Not really.

By suggestion in your post you think he is not the same entirely from the 2009 version. His FH is very much the same and the BH is the same, but less power. It is the same shot, just a minor adjustment.

I think he can trouble the top players if he can make good of the BH. that is where he has suffered when playing higher ranked players, though power on Clay is not the most essential weapon to have.