Interesting odds

Favourite in the bookies at the moment to win the slam is "nobody" and in 2nd place "Wales".

I thought France would be ahead of Wales, but maybe it is France's erratic form that makes them 3rd favourites even though they are world cup finalists.

By how much are Wales favourites over France?

It'll be the home advantage on the last weekend that does it.

I reckon the odds are really short on Wales France being a GS decider (relatively), right?

Interesting how "nobody" is top choice, I definitely wouldn't suggest that anymore.

Its not really surprising if you look at the fixtures. Wales have won 2 on the road and should they beat England then they have Italy and France in Cardiff for the slam. If England can't beat them on Saturday then I can't see anyone stopping them.

By contrast France have 4 games on the bounce against Scotland, Ireland, England and Wales in successive weekends to win the slam.

If Wales lose to England I would not surprised if we finish 4th again on points difference. Always the way!

If Wales win then it will definitely be a GS decider against France (for Wales), but possibly not for France.

Italy would have to do something pretty mental to get a win in Cardiff.

roddersm wrote:Its not really surprising if you look at the fixtures. Wales have won 2 on the road and should they beat England then they have Italy and France in Cardiff for the slam. If England can't beat them on Saturday then I can't see anyone stopping them.

By contrast France have 4 games on the bounce against Scotland, Ireland, England and Wales in successive weekends to win the slam.

Wales played Scotland at home.

OK fair point, the point still stands that Wales have a fairly kind run in if they win on Saturday.

If England win then the tournament is wide open but if Wales win then they will be overwhelming favourites I think.

Except France are the best team in the tournament.

Does the best team always win?

Nope but they are the most likely to..

Time will tell.

I don't know that France are the best team in the tournament....there's so little between france ireland and wales at the moment....I'm not a betting man unless its on something I can directly influence. If I were however, my money would be on the Welsh...

No, I wouldn't say France are the best side either. They might prove to be in the next four weeks but as yet, neither Ireland or France have done enough to suggest a rhythm they might take with them into the championship.

Right now, on evidence, I'd say it's an easy choice to say Wales are the best side. I'd drop France into 2nd best and despite our dreadful performance (in my eyes) from Ireland, they slide past England into 3rd.

But that's all pointless numbers...the games will decide who is 1st, 2nd, and 3rd by the end, and that's the only time numbers will matter.

Secret - we won with a fortunate penalty at the end - I think we were the better team but to say Ireland were dreadful is untrue IMO

SecretFly wrote:No, I wouldn't say France are the best side either. They might prove to be in the next four weeks but as yet, neither Ireland or France have done enough to suggest a rhythm they might take with them into the championship.

Right now, on evidence, I'd say it's an easy choice to say Wales are the best side. I'd drop France into 2nd best and despite our dreadful performance (in my eyes) from Ireland, they slide past England into 3rd.

But that's all pointless numbers...the games will decide who is 1st, 2nd, and 3rd by the end, and that's the only time numbers will matter.

Fly I would say after the world cup final France have proved themselves to be capable of being the best team in the world, and that was with a crap coach too.

Well........... Ruby, I just see so much more potential in the Irish side than the current coaching team seem to be able to extract from them.

But then, Gatland has had a revolution of sorts both in performances and his own attitude in the last year or so.... so there might be some hope for Kidney and crew if they pull up their britches. These next four games really are very important in an Irish context - most especially for Kidney himself.

Rory_Gallagher wrote:

SecretFly wrote:No, I wouldn't say France are the best side either. They might prove to be in the next four weeks but as yet, neither Ireland or France have done enough to suggest a rhythm they might take with them into the championship.

Right now, on evidence, I'd say it's an easy choice to say Wales are the best side. I'd drop France into 2nd best and despite our dreadful performance (in my eyes) from Ireland, they slide past England into 3rd.

But that's all pointless numbers...the games will decide who is 1st, 2nd, and 3rd by the end, and that's the only time numbers will matter.

Fly I would say after the world cup final France have proved themselves to be capable of being the best team in the world, and that was with a crap coach too.

Yep,.. almost winning a WC having lost two of your pool games is either close-to-the-bone perfect luck or a seriously good side hampered by - well, a bad coach (please refer to my post before this one!!! ) But yes... they put it up to New Zealand but I'd like to see what they bring this year and to this competition - and I think you need a least two games to work out what that might be. Wales have been consistent through their two games... and tend never to do attrocious even when bad. Some of the rest of us do - even France.

Some good points there Fly - if we had seen the France - Ireland game we may have had a better understanding at this point. The thing about Wales though is that they still haven't beaten anyone of note except Ireland (who have as you say, been dreadful). There was that almost win against SA, the almost win against France, but almost wins aren't good enough. I still think Wales have been overrated this past while, but we will see I guess.

Rory - you are going against popular opinion here not just welsh opinion - I don't think Wales are overated and we missed 2 relatively simple kicks at goal against both SA and France that would have won us both games. Against France we had 14 men for 65 minutes. I sense a reluctance in you to accept that this is a very good welsh team. We all know almost wins aren't good enoguh to some extent but the maner of these 2 defeats is very different to how Wales have perofrmed in the past - This team isn't the brave loser - we were gutted and disappointed with those 2 losses.

Why is everyone eulogising about France when they lost by 1 point in the final - we outplayed them in the semis with 14 men but people on these shores seem more comfortable seeing France as a very good side. Let's see after the 6 Nations. Both Wales and France are pretty equal but I believe we will win well in Cardiff

You can't really take the odds seriously as a comparison this year due to the postponement of a game. The odds of a grand slam are effectively a multiple bet on winning x number of games. I know the bookies don't exactly treat it this way but the principle is the same. If you assume Wales and France are the favourites to win a GS in odds terms the bet for Wales at this point is only a triple but for France it's a quad. Eg if you bet on a triple where each individual game is evens you are getting effective odds of 8/1. If you do the same for a quad it's 16/1 due to the extra game.

Rory_Gallagher wrote:Except France are the best team in the tournament.

Hmm not convinced of that Rory, on paper maybe but as a functioning team and squad of 22 I think Wales are the top team right now and will be too strong for France in Cardiff. If the match was in Paris I'd fancy France but it isn't so Wales hold all the aces should they beat England.

Ruby - I'm not saying Wales aren't a good team, just that I feel they have been hyped up a great deal. The point about the kicks, well that is like me saying Ireland would have won had Ferris not been given that penalty (wrongly IMO but that is another debate that has been very much overdone). Both France and SA still won despite having absolutely shocking coaches. You are underestimating France a lot, who made it to a final and lost by one point, performing very lazily throughout the entire RWC.

You have North, they have Malzieu. You have Roberts/Davies, they have Fofana/Rougerie. They have Trinc-Duc and either Yachvili or Parra, a dangerous combination. Medard and Clerc don't need much said for them. As for the forwards, it will be exciting to see how you deal with Picamoles. One of the best 8s in the world atm IMO. Extremely hard to tackle, and an offloading genius. Add in Dusautoir and Hari, and all I can say is that is a scary side.

Rodders - France nearly beat NZ after a terrible RWC having extreme problems with management. They literally rebelled against their coach. They had zero respect for him. France to me are maybe second best in the world, with an abundance of talent that under the right coaching is bound to make them world beaters. This coach looks like building a team too, unlike mad Marc.

Rory France wouldn't have been in the final if Warburton hadn't have been sent off and/or Jones hadn't bottled the drop goal.

Wales outplayed them with 14 men and if Priestland had of been playing I'm convinced they would have won even without Warburton.

I think they'll batter France in Cardiff.

Again though rodders, that is a lot of ifs. If Warburton stayed on, France may have shown more intensity. We don't actually know what would have happened. Like I said, France had a shocking RWC and still nearly won it. Major problems with management and coaching, and everyone was talking about England but it was France who were out drinking and breaking all the rules. Marc called them spoilt brats they just weren't bothered at all, and somehow made it to the final and nearly won the whole tournament. How they can't be considered one the best and most dangerous teams in the world is beyond me really.

Rory - would you put Tonga 3rd in the world? Your just making excuses for France and giving no credit to Wales - its your opinion and that's fine. I'm just saying I disagree

Look at it like this also: we are stuck with the failings of Kidney, and we think our potential hasn't been reached and we are not happy about it. Well France had a coach picking people out of position, changing teams dramatically and there was a real disorganisation. The players hated Levriemont. And yet they still make a world cup final, nearly beating the best team in the world. Could Ireland achieve that under a decent coach, never mind Kidney? I'm not so sure. I think that goes to show though how dangerous a team France are.

RubyGuby wrote:Rory - would you put Tonga 3rd in the world? Your just making excuses for France and giving no credit to Wales - its your opinion and that's fine. I'm just saying I disagree

Well ruby, if you don't think the French management was in disarray, or if you think the players were even interested in the tournament then I don't really know what to say. That isn't excuses, that is me presenting the danger France present to everyone. Wales played incredibly without Warburton, I am not saying they didn't. I am just saying France still made it to a final and nearly won a tournament that they didn't even seem half bothered about winning the whole time. I find that quite extraordinary.

Rory - the management in dissarray can often galvanise a team as it did England in 2007 - You are just looking at things to suit your viewpoint and whilst 2 welsh 1 point failures are seen as not being good enough a defeat to Tonga and a 1 pointer to NZ are seen as signs of a great team. It just doesn't add up. Are you saying that France didn't really want it a RWC semi-final against Wales with 15 v 14 - That's absurd, we outplayed them and again missed a simple kick at goal to win it. Theres little between them at best

Rory the RWC is in the past, based on this 6N so far Wales look the strongest team to me.

Obviously France and ourselves have only played once so a lot could change this weekend but right now unless England can do us all a favour I fancy Wales to close out the tournament.

RubyGuby wrote:Rory - the management in dissarray can often galvanise a team as it did England in 2007 - You are just looking at things to suit your viewpoint and whilst 2 welsh 1 point failures are seen as not being good enough a defeat to Tonga and a 1 pointer to NZ are seen as signs of a great team. It just doesn't add up. Are you saying that France didn't really want it a RWC semi-final against Wales with 15 v 14 - That's absurd, we outplayed them and again missed a simple kick at goal to win it. Theres little between them at best

Ruby that is in your head, I am not looking for anything to suit my viewpoint. Or rather, this IS how I view France. Forget about Wales for a second, I still stand by what I said about them but I am talking about France here. France were clearly not motivated by their terrible coaching. I watched every game they played and they looked rubbish. They looked disinterested, disorganised, and pretty fed up. The coaching staff just could not connect or get through to the players. They did whatever they wanted to.

Does that sound like a team motivated to win a world cup? No. When they played Wales, they were no different. They looked rubbish. Wales played very well, but France did not play well. With Warburton they probably would have won yes, but we won't know. If you can remember, everyone was predicting France to get annihilated this world cup and they were said to be the worst team to reach a final. And yet when the final came they completely turned it around.

I think you are just frustrated that I don't rate Wales as highly as you. But you won't change my mind, only Wales will in their performances the rest of the 6 nations. Which they could very well do, so we shall wait and see

Rory_Gallagher wrote:If you can remember, everyone was predicting France to get annihilated this world cup

Sorry, but I can't remember anyone predicting that.

*annihilated in the final I should say. It was talked about plenty in the media about how France would get stuffed and how they were the worst team to reach the final. It was talked about plenty on here too. Not sure how you would have missed it to be honest.

Oh, I thought you meant people were saying they'd be annihilated at the World Cup. If you were just talking about the final then yes, most people were predicting a bit of a hiding.

france have played one game less, tis all- i think wales will still be favs- however even if wales wernt favs in the grand scheme of things- wales would still be ahead based on the fact that wales have won one more game at present- they have also taken out scotland and ireland, france have only beaten italy- secondly wales are a home team, home teams get worse odds due to bookies hedging heavily backed teams

luckless_pedestrian wrote:

Rory_Gallagher wrote:If you can remember, everyone was predicting France to get annihilated this world cup

Sorry, but I can't remember anyone predicting that.

Going on their form right up until that final, then such a prediction wasn't altogether unreasonable. You can only work with what you got and France weren't giving anyone a whole lot to go on. You can't predict greatness if it's not showing. You can want it, yearn for it (like Ireland, think that the players are there that should give it to you) but if it isn't throwing up evidence then you can't predict it.

That's why I say both Ireland and France need at least another game to see what calibre of threat they really are for this Six Nations, this year. On paper, Ireland should be playing better. On paper, France have a selection of some brilliant players...but it's what's happening at team level that decides how both sides will operate as a team. That too will decide whether they can be deemed 'best' team by the end.

France stuffed with great players? Yes. Wales operating on a consistent basis as a good team? You have to say yes. Can they be beaten? Yes. Will France beat them? Can't say. But when I personally say Wales are best side so far...it's not based on France's WC final, or the true potential of the French players, or that they now have an unfruity coach. I'm simply saying that France must prove they are best still...Wales have a head start of two games against good opposition that they've won.

So what your saying Rory is when they got to the final they then decided to try really hard - yeah - or did they not turn up for that as well

alot were predicting they would get batterd in the final- i do remeber that

RubyGuby wrote:So what your saying Rory is when they got to the final they then decided to try really hard - yeah - or did they not turn up for that as well

If you want to read it like that, go ahead. But I think it is quite clear to everyone else who wasn't entirely fixated on Wales during the world cup that France were having an awful tournament, and they shocked everyone with their performance in the final, including NZ. Losing to Tonga, nearly losing to a team who played the game with 14 men and then nearly beating the all blacks to win the world cup? Like I said you can read that as you want, but to me that is a pretty big jump.

Id go along with that- i was not really in frances camp, then half way through the final i was cheering them on big time- they seemed to get some bad luck and turned on there play big time- beforethat there wernt great- england battered them 2nd half, then they scraped the win v a 14 man wales, before that tonga tore them apart

Rory_Gallagher wrote:

RubyGuby wrote:So what your saying Rory is when they got to the final they then decided to try really hard - yeah - or did they not turn up for that as well

If you want to read it like that, go ahead. But I think it is quite clear to everyone else who wasn't entirely fixated on Wales during the world cup that France were having an awful tournament, and they shocked everyone with their performance in the final, including NZ. Losing to Tonga, nearly losing to a team who played the game with 14 men and then nearly beating the all blacks to win the world cup? Like I said you can read that as you want, but to me that is a pretty big jump.

They were actually pretty poor against England apart from for about 20 minutes in the first half when they played sublimely.

So maybe they played sublimely for 20 minutes after forgetting they were a fragmented rudderless team with a twxt for a coach after which they tried to throw the game but England couldn't take advantage

many teams win a game of rugby in a 20 minute burst.


when england were decent we did the same, wales are doing it at presnt(v scotland) and the kiwis allways do it.

You're missing the point Oakey - Read Rory and me above

yeah i am just going of on a tangent

The odds are as they are because France have only played one game, against the weakest team.
Wales winning in Ireland and against Scotland means theyve already done a big chunk of the work.

Personaly I think France are the best team, but they still have 4 opportunities to screw it up against Wales' 3.

Being Welsh, I'm obviously hoping Wales win

I think they are a little further down the road in terms of development than England.

That doesn't mean they WILL win though

I think for the first time in a long while the Welsh supporters see something about the Welsh team that gives rise to hope that this will not be a flash in the pan - I think there are now foundations in place within the Welsh system that hopefully mean we will continue to develop. The same can be said to some degree of both Ireland, England and Scotland too.

I do agree about the nonsense the media and some fans are spouting - We are hyped up, and to argue differently is ludicrous. The thing is all these silly stories of how North is a superstar who will wade through the English, or how Manu is going to make Jamie Roberts his wife, sells stories and feeds a need in people that makes them feel better about themselves. It's the sporting world stories equivalent of the articles you read in your wife's OK and Bella magazine.. [you know you do]