Aviva Premiership Round 17 Preview/Live match thread

by yappysnap Wed 29 Feb 2012, 9:45 pm

Current standings:

Harlequins 16 13 0 3 56
Saracens 16 11 1 4 50
Northampton Saints 16 10 0 6 46
Leicester Tigers 16 9 1 6 45
Gloucester Rugby 16 8 1 7 41
Exeter Chiefs 16 8 0 8 40
Sale Sharks 16 8 0 8 40
London Irish 16 6 1 9 35
Bath Rugby 16 7 0 9 34
Worcester Warriors 16 6 1 9 31
London Wasps 16 4 0 12 23
Newcastle Falcons 16 3 1 12 17

This weekends fixtures are:

Newcastle Falcons v Harlequins
Both teams lost last weekend, but while Quins will be aggrieved to have lost away to Gloucester they'll also be pleased with still doing enough to claim the losing bp and playing a lot of good rugby in the process. Falcons on the other hand travelled to Leicester and recorded one of worst losing margins of the season, in the process conceding 6 tries. This may well fire them up to really come out at Quins at home, but even with that it'll be a tough ask to beat a Quins side welcoming back Brown, Marler and JTH. Quins by 5.

Bath Rugby v Worcester Warriors
Bath again have been hit and miss over this time of year and it's in their pack where they have real struggles. Worcester on the other hand are fresh from beating the current league champions and will be hoping to upset the odds by getting one over the home team. If Bath can raise the tempo early and get their front row running hard then they could win this at a canter, if on the other hand it comes down to a wrestle and one try takes all, then Worcester are well built to sneak it. Bath by 12.

Exeter Chiefs v Sale Sharks
Sale had another high scoring affair last weekend, with their youngsters running out winners just shy of the half century. Exeter though are another team who are masters of keeping games tight. At home you have to Expect the Cheifs to do exactly this and to bully Sale all over the park, Sale I don't think will have enough up front to win here. Exeter by 5.

London Wasps v London Irish
Two teams who are both struggling for any kind of form. Wasps lost away at Sale last weekend but showed a lot of threat in the second half, LI were hammered at times by Saints but they too showed plenty of sparkle. Injuries will hamper Wasps and on the face of it you have to say LI have a far better team. I'm expecting another high scoring game but Irish to come out on top. LI by 9.

Leicester Tigers v Gloucester Rugby
The Tigers spent 80 minutes last week completely dismantling Newcastle, and with the emergence of their two current props as some of the best scrummagers in the league Gloucester are going to have their hands full here. Glos did them selves win against Quins last week but you have to think that the signs are omminous from Welford Rd. If the Tigers pack get control of the match then it coulf be a blitz. Tigers by 15.

Saracens v Northampton Saints
It's been an unsettling last few weeks for Saracens, they are missing a whole host of players but have stuck religiously to the same gameplan. With this they've managed to sneak a win at the worst team in the league before suffering two losses on the bounce. Saints on the other hand have hit some form during this window and with most of the pack intact are really putting the pressure on teams. If Saracens stick to the simplistic game plan and Goode again fails to execute this well, then Saints could definitely end the weekend having done the double over the League Champs, their pack is just too tough and they have threats everywhere to be given so much ball. Saints by 6.

by yappysnap Thu 01 Mar 2012, 8:11 am

Just noticed that the final match of the weekend will have even more bearing as if Saints win well they could leap frog Saracens in to second place. In the event of two teams having the same overall points is it then based on W/L ratio and then points for/against?

by Portnoy Thu 01 Mar 2012, 8:42 am

According to Auntie:

If teams are level at any stage, they are ranked in order by:
1. number of wins
2. difference between points for and against
3. most tries scored
4. most points scored
5. difference between tries for and against

by AsLongAsBut100ofUs Thu 01 Mar 2012, 8:46 am

Newcastle Falcons v Harlequins - Quins by less than a score
Bath Rugby v Worcester Warriors - home advantage, Bath by more than a score
Exeter Chiefs v Sale Sharks - out-of-sorts Chiefs will not quite have enough for resurgent Sale
London Wasps v London Irish - more injury woes for Wasps this week, Irish by more than a score
Leicester Tigers v Gloucester Rugby - Glaws to pull off the shock of the round
Saracens v Northampton Saints - Saints leapfrog Sarries

Chief

by EnglishReign Thu 01 Mar 2012, 8:55 am

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:
Leicester Tigers v Gloucester Rugby - Glaws to pull off the shock of the round

I like you ASBO.

Newcastle Falcons v Harlequins - Quins to bounce back and take it by more than a score.
Bath Rugby v Worcester Warriors - Wuss to sneak it by a few points.
Exeter Chiefs v Sale Sharks - Chiefs to win by a score in a close fought encounter. Should be a good game.
London Wasps v London Irish - Irish to take it by 10+.
Leicester Tigers v Gloucester Rugby - Leic to pull away in the last quarter of the game and win by a score. LBP for Glaws.
Saracens v Northampton Saints - Sarries by 5.

by yappysnap Thu 01 Mar 2012, 9:09 am

Cheers Portney, I thought that was the case.

ASBO, I just can't see Gloucester getting the win at Tigers this week, maybe another high scoring draw like that LI match but I think Leicester will do anything to get a win and will be too strong up front.

It will be a brilliant achievement by Saints if they do make it up to second place this weekend, they've been steadily working under the radar so far and possibly the lack of attention has helped them quite a bit. With all the attention on Quins, Saracens, Glos and Tigers I think we've all forgotten about them a little.

by yappysnap Thu 01 Mar 2012, 9:12 am

The players that have been released by England could have quite a big affect on the matched this weekend, here's the full list:

Mike Brown (Harlequins), Calum Clark (Northampton Saints), Paul Doran Jones (Northampton Saints), Phil Dowson (Northampton Saints), Toby Flood (Leicester Tigers), Charlie Hodgson (Saracens), Courtney Lawes (Northampton Saints), Joe Marler (Harlequins), Lee Mears (Bath Rugby), Ben Morgan (Scarlets), Tom Palmer (Stade Francais), Charlie Sharples (Gloucester Rugby), Joe Simpson (London Wasps), Matt Stevens (Saracens), Jordan Turner-Hall (Harlequins), Thomas Waldrom (Leicester Tigers), Rob Webber (London Wasps), Ben Youngs (Leicester Tigers)

by killer938 Thu 01 Mar 2012, 10:14 am

Youngs and Flood back to start for Tigers, hopefully this means they can start to get back some type of form

by Portnoy Thu 01 Mar 2012, 10:43 am

killer938 wrote:Youngs and Flood back to start for Tigers, hopefully this means they can start to get back some type of form

Absolutely. But I'm not holding my breath.

Youngs looks all at sea and Flood is lost without him.

by ChequeredJersey Thu 01 Mar 2012, 10:50 am

yappysnap wrote:

Newcastle Falcons v Harlequins
Quins to get a non-Bonus point win. Not sure if Falcons can get the BP, I hope so, the pest-hating bit of me wants them to stay up

Bath Rugby v Worcester Warriors
Bath's form is on the up, but Worcester have really performed recently. Bath by 3

Exeter Chiefs v Sale Sharks
Exeter by a score (7, that is, not 20!)

London Wasps v London Irish
Got to say Irish, Wasps are not looking good.

Leicester Tigers v Gloucester Rugby
Gloucester by 10

Saracens v Northampton Saints
My weekly draw prediction, 27 all. 9 penalties for Sarries and some tries for Saints

by HongKongCherry Thu 01 Mar 2012, 11:56 am

The Jeff back taking center stage and another interesting week. I think as Yappy says those released by England could make a big impact.

Falcons v Quins - Poor Falcons start to show a bit of form then have to face Tigers and Quins! Whilst KP is always a tough place to go Quins will win this by 10.

Bath v Wuss - this really could go either way, but I just have a feeling Wuss will sneak this by 3.

Chiefs v Sale - I was surprised Chieffs didn't win last week, but I can't see them losing two weeks running. They'll grind out a 5 point win.

Wasps v Irish - 2 out of forms teams. Irish probably are the better side, but with Wasps at home this will be a draw!

Tigers v Glaws - how about another 41-41 draw?! It's a mute point whether Flood and Youngs returning will help or hinder Tigers, but certainly the Scots returning for Glaws will help. Even so, its WR and Glaws haven't won there since 07 and I'm not sure this will be the year to end that run. Tigers by 6.

Sarries v Saints - this is a game that will be decided on the returning players and Saints look to be the stronger side and will sneak a very close game. Saints by 1.

by beshocked Thu 01 Mar 2012, 1:01 pm

Yappysnap predicts a Saracens loss for the billionth time.

Can't see Saints winning personally.

Charlie is back which will be a huge boost.

by HongKongCherry Thu 01 Mar 2012, 1:07 pm

beshocked wrote:Yappysnap predicts a Saracens loss for the billionth time.

But he was right last week? Wink

It should be a great game, a real war of attrition boxing

by formerly known as Sam Thu 01 Mar 2012, 1:26 pm

Youngs and Flood back to start for Tigers, hopefully this means they can start to get back some type of form.

Flood has actually been playing alright and he added a real injection of quality off the bench for England. He should get the Tigers moving, Youngs on the other hand might not have been selected had Sam Harrison been fit.

Personally I'm hoping for a Sarries draw with Saints. 9 all is a good score I think.

by yappysnap Thu 01 Mar 2012, 2:08 pm

I have predicted four losses so far for saracens, so far they've scraped to one win two losses and now have a home game with a very depleted team against Saints.

I'm not trying to be down on Saracens, I just think the style of gameplan that you opt for means that matches will nearly always end up very tight and if you don't execute it perfectly then you're setting yourselves up for a fall. With players like Barritt, Farrell, Wigglesworth, Botha, Stringer you had the ability to do this. But with the current team you just can't play the odds so well.

by Pete C (Kiwireddevil) Thu 01 Mar 2012, 4:23 pm

Good article Yappy. Can you check your messages, I'd like to publish it on the Journal Smile

by yappysnap Thu 01 Mar 2012, 6:57 pm

Cheers Kiwi, there's a response there now. Care to make some predictions?

by yappysnap Thu 01 Mar 2012, 6:58 pm

formerly known as Sam wrote:
Youngs and Flood back to start for Tigers, hopefully this means they can start to get back some type of form.

Flood has actually been playing alright and he added a real injection of quality off the bench for England. He should get the Tigers moving, Youngs on the other hand might not have been selected had Sam Harrison been fit.

Personally I'm hoping for a Sarries draw with Saints. 9 all is a good score I think.

Flood did look pretty sharp when he came on and tbf last week against Saracens he was better then average. Will Youngs start at 9?

by beshocked Thu 01 Mar 2012, 7:09 pm

yappysnap wrote:I have predicted four losses so far for saracens, so far they've scraped to one win two losses and now have a home game with a very depleted team against Saints.

I'm not trying to be down on Saracens, I just think the style of gameplan that you opt for means that matches will nearly always end up very tight and if you don't execute it perfectly then you're setting yourselves up for a fall. With players like Barritt, Farrell, Wigglesworth, Botha, Stringer you had the ability to do this. But with the current team you just can't play the odds so well.

Depleted but not as much as it was.

Hodgson is back which will boost the team hugely.

The two losses could have and should have really been two wins. Just didn't finish the games properly. Sometimes you get the rub of the green. Sometimes you don't.

Can't see Saracens being on the end of yet another one of those losses.

Saracens simply can't afford another loss and I think they'll really target Saints.

by **Ozzy3213** Thu 01 Mar 2012, 7:50 pm

Interesting that a lot of people are tipping London Irish to win this week. We've not won at Adams Park since 2006 I believe, and I don't see that ending this week.

Chris Hala'ufia has just been stung with an 11 week ban as a result of his citing in December, meaning that he is done now for the season. That means we only really have 2 fit players who are effective ball carriers in our pack, and I suspect that one of them will be on the bench.

I fully expect us to get beaten this weekend, and there is a very real possibilty that we may not win another game this season. Sad

by yappysnap Thu 01 Mar 2012, 8:20 pm

As bad as that is Pete you do have positives over wasps:

A settled coaching team, good kickers, a functioning backline with some brilliant players in it and you still have some smarts and weight in that pack.

It'll be a tough game but I expect you boys to do enough.

by **Ozzy3213** Thu 01 Mar 2012, 8:22 pm

I'll be surprised yappy. Some of our decision making last weekend against Saints was schoolboy to say the least.

by yappysnap Thu 01 Mar 2012, 8:31 pm

Yes but that's Saints, and you still had it wrapped up till the last 5 minutes, likewise against Quins earlier in this round of fixtures. Saints have quitely grown in to the form team in the prem at the moment (as much as any one can be on form with every one losing every few matches). They have a lot of strengths where you have weak points, but Wasps really don't.

I expect Wasps to let you off the hook a lot more often and after all these almosts, you'll get the win.

by Forward Pass Thu 01 Mar 2012, 10:00 pm

Don't post often enough on the rugby boards but here is my take on week 17

Newcastle Falcons v Harlequins - Quins to win by more than 7 [0-5]
Bath Rugby v Worcester Warriors - Bath by 6 [4-1]
Exeter Chiefs v Sale Sharks - Chiefs by 3 [4-1]
London Wasps v London Irish - Irish by 7+ [1-4]
Leicester Tigers v Gloucester Rugby - can't see Tigers losing at home [4-1]
Saracens v Northampton Saints - Saints by 5 [biased opinion] [1-4]

by AsLongAsBut100ofUs Fri 02 Mar 2012, 8:11 am

Some good shouts there, Forward Pass - hope you're right about the Chief

- we've just not been clicking recently, and haven't scored an openfield try for quite some time (ignoring Richie B's charge-down against the Tigers). Sale will be hungry for revenege after our massive 2nd half comeback up at their place

by Forward Pass Fri 02 Mar 2012, 8:58 am

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:Some good shouts there, Forward Pass - hope you're right about the - we've just not been clicking recently, and haven't scored an openfield try for quite some time (ignoring Richie B's charge-down against the Tigers). Sale will be hungry for revenege after our massive 2nd half comeback up at their place

Just a feeling that you will find a way to get the win
Big game as well with the 4 teams above playing one another ,the winner is right in the mix for top 4

by Equo Troiano Fri 02 Mar 2012, 9:23 am

I am another who think that Wasps will beat the Not Nots. Two out of form teams, but crucially Wasps are at home and are 'due a win'. I just thin that LI are the team they'll do it against. I notice that this was mentioned on The Rugby Club last night.

Saints to beat Saracens. Hodgeson coming back wont make a huge amount of difference, they'll still kick from 1st receiver and attempt to chase it down. Saints are more than capable of countering that style of play - and, like Tigers did at Sickerage Rd, know how to close it down. I think they'll get on the front foot and Myler will be pulling the strings. Sarries may even struggle to finish 3rd if Tigers can keep their form up.

by AsLongAsBut100ofUs Fri 02 Mar 2012, 9:30 am

Equo Troiano wrote:I am another who think that Wasps will beat the Not Nots. Two out of form teams, but crucially Wasps are at home and are 'due a win'. I just thin that LI are the team they'll do it against. I notice that this was mentioned on The Rugby Club last night.

Saints to beat Saracens. Hodgeson coming back wont make a huge amount of difference, they'll still kick from 1st receiver and attempt to chase it down. Saints are more than capable of countering that style of play - and, like Tigers did at Sickerage Rd, know how to close it down. I think they'll get on the front foot and Myler will be pulling the strings. Sarries may even struggle to finish 3rd if Tigers can keep their form up.

Equo, I would have gone with you on Wasps, but I think that the recent spate of injuries (most notably Wentzel) on top of those they already had will seriously dent their 'dog' - and that's what they are deparately in need of at this stage in the season

by yappysnap Fri 02 Mar 2012, 9:58 am

Quins team is up for tonights game against Falcons:

15. Mike Brown
14. Tom Williams
13. George Lowe
12. Jordan Turner-Hall
11. Ugo Monye
10. Nick Evans
9. Danny Care

1. Joe Marler
2. Chris Brooker
3. James Johnston
4. Olly Kohn
5. Tomas Vallejos
6. Tom Guest
7. Luke Wallace
8. Nick Easter (C)

Replacements

16 Rob Buchanan 17 Mark Lambert 18 Tim Fairbrother 19 Pete Browne 20 Will Skinner 21 Karl Dickson 22 Rory Clegg 23 Matt Hopper

Gutted for Chisolm, he's scored some brilliant tries in the last few games and is now completely dropped from the 22, i'd have taken him over one of Williams or Monye any day at the moment.

Other then that though it's a strong team and all the pre match talk from O'Shea and Easter has been about laying down a marker to the rest of the Prem. Let's hope the match lives up to the expectations and we get that bp.

On a side note, do we think there's anything Marler and Brown could do in this game to play there way onto the bench or starting line up against France?

by formerly known as Sam Fri 02 Mar 2012, 10:07 am

On a side note, do we think there's anything Marler and Brown could do in this game to play there way onto the bench or starting line up against France?

Marler, no. The scrum has been under pressure but Hartley seems to be the weak link there and Marler is not a scrummaging upgrade on Corbs. Corbs has been doing well enough in the loose. Brown could very easily play his way into the side, Foden is off form and doesn't seem to be adapting to this new England style. Brown's better kicking game and more physical presence in the line mean he seems more suited to the Lancaster/Farrell backline tactics so a good display could see him start.

by ChequeredJersey Fri 02 Mar 2012, 1:47 pm

formerly known as Sam wrote:
On a side note, do we think there's anything Marler and Brown could do in this game to play there way onto the bench or starting line up against France?

Marler, no. The scrum has been under pressure but Hartley seems to be the weak link there and Marler is not a scrummaging upgrade on Corbs. Corbs has been doing well enough in the loose. Brown could very easily play his way into the side, Foden is off form and doesn't seem to be adapting to this new England style. Brown's better kicking game and more physical presence in the line mean he seems more suited to the Lancaster/Farrell backline tactics so a good display could see him start.

What about Marler on the bench?

by formerly known as Sam Fri 02 Mar 2012, 1:54 pm

What about Marler on the bench?.

The French scrum would stuff us into the middle of next week with him at loosehead. Imagine if Cole went off and Corbs had to play at 3 and Marler at 1? That's right we'd be down to 14 players pretty quickly with the only advantage of that being it would be uncontested scrums for 10 mins. Against the Welsh it was a risk I'd have taken but the French are to strong at the set piece for that. I'd consider the risk against the Irish though, as they try and play an open game and our backrow could use Marler's support.

by ChequeredJersey Fri 02 Mar 2012, 1:57 pm

On recent form, I'm not convinced Stevens will fare even a tiny bit better. Not that Marler is the best scrummaging option we have but Stevens' form has been dreadful for Sarries the last couple of matches I've seen and though he has gotten involved in rucks strongly for England, his scrummaging has been poor IMO (I'll admit to not being a prop so like the referees my interpretation of the front row in scrums is basically guesswork) and he has given away silly penalties

by yappysnap Fri 02 Mar 2012, 2:11 pm

Stevens has been dire for club and country. I actually wish it had been PDJ who was on the bench but for what ever reason he's out of favour.

Marler would be a very good impact player against Ireland and I think a few matches of test rugby would really help his progression. Remember how well the Oz youngsters in the frontrow adapted after their first couple of humpings last season?

by formerly known as Sam Fri 02 Mar 2012, 2:22 pm

It is a fair point, Stevens current form is cack. He took a real schooling from Marcos Ayerza the other week and whilst Marcos is a quality loosehead his scrummaging skills are on a par with what will turn up in the French front row. I agree with Yappy PDJ should be on the bench as he is a far better scrummaging option. Unfortunatly for PDJ he doesn't play for Sarries.

I'd rather Stevens took any set piece beating we have to endure otherwise Marler will never live it down, like Tait and the Henson tackle. Bring him in for Ireland where the game is likely to be more to his level and where Ross will be tired by the time Marler comes on.

by B91212 Fri 02 Mar 2012, 3:16 pm

formerly known as Sam wrote:I'd rather Stevens took any set piece beating we have to endure otherwise Marler will never live it down, like Tait and the Henson tackle. Bring him in for Ireland where the game is likely to be more to his level and where Ross will be tired by the time Marler comes on.

I agree, the French front row is not the place to blood a new 'maybe iffy scrumaging-wise, we wont know until we see him' type prop. Marler looks the real deal in the loose, lets not damage his confidence by potentially having to bring him on in the first five minutes against France if Cole or Corbs get injured. Maybe consider him for the bench against Ireland.

by B91212 Fri 02 Mar 2012, 3:26 pm

Done pretty well the last couple of weeks, think I got 100% last week on results (but not bp predictions).

Newcastle Falcons v Harlequins - Away win (TBP for Quins due to them having just about their first choice back line playing)
Bath Rugby v Worcester Warriors - Home win
Exeter Chiefs v Sale Sharks - Home win (LBP for Sale)
London Wasps v London Irish - Away win
Leicester Tigers v Gloucester Rugby - Home win (based on Tigers forward dominance)
Saracens v Northampton Saints - Home win

I know we (Saints) have been playing well recently and Saracens have hit a bit of a rough patch but I think it will be a home win based on Saracens game style and Saints back 3. Can see plenty of up and under's from Mr Hodgson and although Diggen has looked okay at FB with ball in hand he's not the greatest at taking the high ball, especially with that nasty Watford smog making it harder for him to track it through the air! Saying that I've not seen the Saints team yet but with Foden retained / rested by England and Tonks well out of favour I can't see who else we can pick at 15 (after the Scarlets game at home earlier in the season I hope it's not Pisi).

by Cumbrian Fri 02 Mar 2012, 8:03 pm

Currently 3-3 0n about 20 Minutes between Falcons and Quins.

by Cumbrian Fri 02 Mar 2012, 8:05 pm

Great, Pilgrim carded for the most obvious (and unnecessary) pull back off the ball.

by ChequeredJersey Fri 02 Mar 2012, 8:05 pm

Cumbrian wrote:Currently 3-3 0n about 20 Minutes between Falcons and Quins.

Some interesting refereeing calls...

by Cumbrian Fri 02 Mar 2012, 8:10 pm

Only just started watching really, my stream is a bit choppy. What are you seeing?

by ChequeredJersey Fri 02 Mar 2012, 8:11 pm

Some harsh calls against Falcons in the scrums and just missed a pretty obvious penalty to Quins in contact

by ChequeredJersey Fri 02 Mar 2012, 8:15 pm

Wallace looks bad Sad

by Cumbrian Fri 02 Mar 2012, 8:17 pm

It's Brooker, doesn't look pleasant at all, his knee went at angles that you really don't want to see.

by Cumbrian Fri 02 Mar 2012, 8:18 pm

Monye should have seen yellow too, that was a trip.

by ChequeredJersey Fri 02 Mar 2012, 8:19 pm

Ah feck. That's our hookers out then

by ChequeredJersey Fri 02 Mar 2012, 8:19 pm

Cumbrian wrote:Monye should have seen yellow too, that was a trip.

I agree

by Cumbrian Fri 02 Mar 2012, 8:23 pm

Really don't like to see players injured, wish him a speedy recovery.

by Cumbrian Fri 02 Mar 2012, 8:31 pm

Dear me, another break in play! We'll be here at 10pm at this rate!

by ChequeredJersey Fri 02 Mar 2012, 8:39 pm

Bloody hell

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