Cheltenham Festival - Friday / Gold Cup, Kauto Star, Long Run...

Can Kauto Star claim his third Gold Cup? Can Long Run retain his title? Will Burton Port become the new champion? Come and join the discussion for the finale to the Festival. Who do you fancy for the Gold cup?

Updates in green

1:30 JCB Triumph Hurdle Grade 1 Cl1 2m1f
Grumeti has headed the market for this most of the season and has won three of his four starts. The only race he didn't win was when he fell, when leading, at Newbury in January. PEARL SWAN, trained by Paul Nicholls, actually finished ahead of Grumeti by a short head in at Kempton last month before being disqualified so there seems little between the leading pair. Baby Mix is another leading contender and was impressive last time out but was a long way behind Grumeti at Cheltenham the time before that.

Sadler's Risk, who was comfortably beaten by Baby Mix last time out, is the current favourite. Grumeti has been the favourite ante post and will run well as will the Paul Nicholls trained Pearl Swan. Balder Success and Shadow Catcher are other to look out for. Dodging Bullets is a market mover from 33-1 into 14-1. Baby Mix, Grumeti and Pearl Swan shared the newspaper selections.

2:05 Vincent O´Brien County Handicap Hurdle Grade 3 Cl1 2m1f
TED SPREAD is the current 7/1 favourite for this but that could go if the horse comes home first in the Imperial Cup on Saturday. He was well beaten on his first two starts in maiden races (the second behind Grumeti) but seems to have found his level last time in a handicap hurdle and is an improving type. Citizenship trained in Ireland by Mrs J Harrington is another who could run a big race here.

2:40 Albert Bartlett Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As The Spa Novices´ Hurdle Race) Grade 1 Cl1 3m
BOSTON BOB, also in the Bingham, is a short priced favourite here but which race he goes for has yet to be decide. If he goes for this race he will be hard to beat. This race is the longer of the two being over the three miles and Rocky Creek trained by Paul Nicholls who has won over the distance could be the main danger. Poole Master could be an interesting runner at a bigger price.

Boston Bob has received 8 newspaper selections and is shortening at the bookies all the time. Along with Simonsig who won on Wednesday, Boston Bob is one of the bankers of the week.

3:20 Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase Grade 1 Cl1 3m2f110y
This is being made out as a battle royale between Kauto Star and Long Run. Kauto Star has had an injury scare in the past week but should run. That said he has found it difficult to see out the 3m2f in the last few seasons and I don't see him winning a third Gold Cup this year. Long Run hasn't looked the same horse this season as he did in the 2010-11 season. BURTON PORT was catching Long Run last time out over 3m at Newbury and the extra two furlongs will surely be a benefit here. For a bigger price each way horse, Mon More who was a distance third in 2010 could be a decent shout.

This is the big one. Can Long Run retain his title? Can Kauto Star win his third Gold Cup? For me Burton Port is the one to be on. He was closing on Long Run on his reappearance and will appreciate the extra two furlongs. Burton Port finished ahead of Long Run on this last run at Cheltenham in the 2010 RSA Chase when he finished 2nd behind Weapons Amnesty with Long Run 3rd.

The newspaper selections are Long Run 6, Weird Al 3, Kauto Star & Burton Port 2 and What A Friend 1. Long Run has drifted out to 2-1 and Kauto Star could possibly go off favourite if public supports comes in in a big way. Midnight Chase has been clipped in from 16-1 to 10-1 but was well beat in this last year. What A Friend was a close 4 lengths behind Long Run last year and is the top two are off par could run well at 25-1.

4:00 Christie´s Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup Cl2 3m2f110y
Barbers Shop for the Queen would be a popular winner in her Jubilee year and has won its last two outings in hunter chases. Cloudy Lane for Donald McCain is another interesting runner with a good pedigree. I think an interesting runner here could be MONKERTY TUNKERTY.

4:40 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys´ Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m4f110y
Another of the Queen's horses OPEN HEARTED looks a likely candidate for this having been readied for this last time out, by trainer Nicky Henderson, in a similar conditional jockeys race.

5:15 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup (Handicap) Grade 3 Cl1 2m110y
There has been a big gamble for the Ferdy Murphy trained De Boitron over the past few weeks and it will certainly be one to make a note of in the Festival's finale. The Nigel Twiston-Davies trained ASTRACAD has some decent form behind Al Ferof and Champion Court this season and has a very handy weight in this race

The final day and if youve made it and are still intact then well done,heres my take on day fours events.

1.30 HINTERLAND came over from France with a tall reputation and jumped to Triumph favouritism with a taking debut win at Prestbury Park.He was then "disappointing" behind Baby Mix next time out but he pulled too hard that day and was giving 7lb away,events since that,the winner has won a valuable trial at Kempton suggest that it wasnt a poor effort at all.Hinterland ran a solid third in handicap company last time out but again he ran with the choke out and didnt finish off like he should,a real strong pace will see him in a different light,he will settle and in all probability he'll round his ran off in better fashion.The final climb holds no fears for him and at around the 20s mark he is worth a small ew.

2.05 A total nightmare to try and fathom.The usual frenetic gallop allied to the stiff finish might see UBI ACE return to winning ways.Real solid form all season and although hes 10lb higher than his Sandown win,it might be that the race conditions will offset that rise.With plenty of firms going ew first five he rates another sporting ew.

2.40 Torn between two,Cotton Mill and Brindisi Breeze.Both have solid form and Ambion Woods victory under a big weight today only bolsters it further.The trip and track will suit Brindisi Breeze but the likely better ground will play to Cotton Mill.Toss of a coin means that BRINDISI BREEZE gets the nod,if only for the fact that he races on or very close to the pace and he should therefore avoid any trouble,although i do see Cotton Mill running an awfully big race.

3.20 LONG RUN-this is his place,3m2,twice up the Hill.Cant have Kauto,he wants a dead 3m on a flat track these days and he'll be treading water after the last.Midnight Chase will ensure a searching test and he will put plenty of these in trouble before the race starts in earnest.Burton Port will be staying on at the death but hes 10lb wrong with Long Run on Newbury form and theres also the dreaded "bounce" factor.In short its LONG RUN all the way and anything around the 7/4 or 2/1 mark should be hoovered up.Cant remember the last time that the 6l winner of the previous years vintage Gold Cup wasnt odds on to win the next one.

4.00 Barbers Shop was top class in his pomp but 3m2 around this place wont be to his liking.The one i like has a very good Festival record and the form states that this venue holds no fears,CHAPOTURGEON won the Jewson a few seasons back then fell in Tranquil Seas Paddy Power when holding chances.Bolted up at Newbury,looks like he retains plenty of his old ability and heralds from a very shrewd yard.Top claims in this heat.

4.40 Reckon this might go to the son of the man whose name this race carries.Wouldnt be at all shocked to see DAN BREEN run a big race.Very useful novice hurdler, he lost his way after being fancied for the Supreme novice here a couple of seasons back and hes never looked a natural over the bigger stuff to me but his last run signalled a return to form.He ran an excellent second to Aerial at Newbury and looked for much of the way as being the winner,only getting worn down close home.Hes thrown in on his old form off a mark of 135 and at the likely price he looks something to bet on.

5.15 Ferdy has aimed DE BOITRON at this all season.Fine fourth in this last year off 137,hes 2lb lower this time,he showed some sparkle last time at Musselburgh and another bold show is on the cards.Stable are sweet on his chances,solid betting proposition.

Win Lay Each Way Friday

Win- Cloudy Lane

Lay- Chapoturgeon (Backed him religously including the jewson for a while..then realised he can't jump consistently and prob won't stay 3m2f either)

EW - Darroun (Unexposed horse in the race and Aga Khan breds do well at the festival)

David Pipe has said a decision on Grand Crus and whether he goes for the Gold Cup or RSA Chase will be made on Monday. It will be interesting to see which race they go for considering the Pipe stable lost promising novice Gloria Victis in the 2000 Gold Cup.

SkyBet are placing 6 in the 14.05, anyone recommend a good outsider for a cheeky e/w punt?

Been a great week so far have a lot of horses backed today so fingers crossed...

13.30 - Pearl Swan
14.05 - Olafi, Citizenship, Ifyouletmefinish, Edgardo Sol
14.40 - Brindisi Breeze, Boston Bob
15.20 - Long Run, Weird Al & Burton Port EW
16.00 - Bradley & Merchant Royal
16.40 - Molotof, Gormanstown Cuckoo
17.15 - Bellvano, de Boitron, Idarah

Long Run will make or break my day... Good luck!

King Beer wrote:SkyBet are placing 6 in the 14.05, anyone recommend a good outsider for a cheeky e/w punt?

Dee Ee Williams could run a big race at 50-1.

sportsville wrote:

King Beer wrote:SkyBet are placing 6 in the 14.05, anyone recommend a good outsider for a cheeky e/w punt?

Dee Ee Williams could run a big race at 50-1.

Thanks mate! Will give it a shot!

I've gone for Gruneti and Pearl Swan in the first and Dirar, Ubi Ace and Dee Ee Williams in the 2nd purely because of the 6 places!

Good luck to everyone today!

Scrape all you cash together,sell the wife,raid the kids piggy bank,just from a pure value angle LONG RUN is the best of the season at the current 9/4.How can the reigning champion,a victor of what was said at the time to be a vintage renewal possibly be that price for the following years? Hes been pilloried for doing nothing wrong this season,he caught a rejuvenated Kauto at Haydock(when he needed the run),he closed the gap at Kempton and with a clean jump at the last it would have been very interesting then he gave 10lb and a beating to all at Newbury,where he jumped and travelled arguably as good as hes ever done on these shores.He comes into his own in these Gold Cup conditions,the stiffer track,the longer trip,the stronger gallop..this is Long Runs day,not kempton on Boxing Day,not Newbury four weeks ago..today,the last day of the Festival is his day of reckoning.There is nothing in any of the other horses form to suggest that they can hold a candle to him around here,theres horses who have good,solid form but they need to find and find big time to dethrone him.Theres a glut of 160ish runners in the field,all with good credentials but with 14lb to find to be really in the mix.At the top level that sort of gulf in quality is a lightyear,its like winning the Olympic 100m by 2 seconds.Ive seen 30+ Festivals and i just cant for the life of me remember when i thought the bookies, the so called racing pundits and the racing public have got a race so wrong.If i was chalking up this race then Long Run would be even money at best.Hen Knight used to get Best Mate to this very day in top order,having shown just a glimpse of what he was capable of during his prep and he was silly prices,so why is this fella any different? in boat loads of ways its almost a carbon copy.This race is simple,if he doesnt meet with a mishap and he runs to his form he just wins and at 9/4 he is just the most unbelievable value to do so.

I have to say, i'm not convinced, although that's more down to my lack of racing knowledge. I'm gonna hold off and see how my early runners do and if there is money in the pot then i might just back Long Run.

Long Run may well be the one to beat though I'm not sure whether it was a vintage renewal last year. Ok Kauto Star and Denman where their but looked like old horses tiring in the last furlong or so.

There doesn't look much running this year after the front two although Burton Port is an unknown.

Hearing Weird Al is fancied? Anything in that?

I'm veering towards Balder Success and Dodging Bullets in the Triumph Hurdle with a little each way on 200/1 shot Mattoral.

Astracad in the last was one of my bets of the meeting but there has also been a strong word/ support for Lucky William.

Weird Al is like many in the field in that hes shown a nice level of form but he has to go up two notches to be in the mix,his run in the Betfair suggests that he has plenty to do but he does come here a fresh horse and he does go well first up after a long break.I would say that he has a place chance at very best.

Weird al has got to be your each way bet. My Dad knows one of the owners and apparently they fancy him to take it on today. 11/1 this morning.

People are talking the Gold Cup up as a race with only one "place" up for grabs,im totally opposite becasue the one horse that i wont have at any price is Kauto.He paddled home last year,almost getting caught by What a Friend.Okay he was back to his best at Haydock but he was treading water at Kempton in the last 100yds and this Hill takes no prisoners,it is no respecter of reputations,to say he doesnt stay is silly because hes won it twice but its the combination of course and distance that shows chinks in his armour.Ruby is stuck between a rock and a hard place because hes won his races this season by jumping from close to or on the pace,getting away and holding on,if he does that around here thens hes a sitting duck and if he goes the other way and drops him in for a late thrust then theres stronger stayers in the field who will do him up the Hill.The riding tactics on Kauto will be interesting in the extreme.
The two that i like for a place are Midnight Chase,whos record around here is tremendous,he will stay,he will jump and he will put plenty of these to the cosh from halfway and one from out the ball park so to speak is Diamond Harry.He wont get into a battle with Kauto like he did at Haydock,he'll be dropped out and ridden with more patience,he goes fantastically well freshand there has certainly been worse 40/1 shots in recent Gold Cups.

Most of the people i know are having a punt on Burton Port (and Carruthers), any sense in that or is he really that unknown?

sportsville wrote:Long Run may well be the one to beat though I'm not sure whether it was a vintage renewal last year. Ok Kauto Star and Denman where their but looked like old horses tiring in the last furlong or so.

There doesn't look much running this year after the front two although Burton Port is an unknown.

Last years was a real blood and thunder renewal,it was real strong affair,the way the race was run really sorted out the men from the boys.Midnight Chase went a nice pace for a circuit but when Denman took it up and put them to the sword the race took on whole new dimension.The front four put a massive amount of Gloucestershire countryside between them and the fifth and for the winner to find what he did was a tremendous effort and just on the black and white form there was no reason to think that Denman hadnt run right up to his mark,so Long Run had to rated accordingly,that being the case then a rating in the 180s wasnt hyperbole,it was justified.A 180 running in a Gold Cup only leads to one conclusion.....vintage renewal.

I've done Burton Port just for the decent price.

I do think that it will be out of Kauto and Long Run but if they slip up or arent up to scratch I think that it could do it.

Quel Esprit has been ruled out after it was found to be lame.

sportsville wrote:

King Beer wrote:SkyBet are placing 6 in the 14.05, anyone recommend a good outsider for a cheeky e/w punt?

Dee Ee Williams could run a big race at 50-1.

Placed @ 66/1

Cheers!

Racingnut i could kiss you!

does anybody know what a £5 reverse would have returned on Brindisi Breeze & boston bob? I tried logging into my betfred account half an hour before the race to stick £10 e/w on breeze @ 9/1 and a cheeky fiver on the reverse.

It wouldnt let me log in and Im p!ssed off big time.

Do you really want me to tell you?

seriously? Go on just tell me. Im already livid. I backed son of flicka at £10 win 33/1 the other day which if it would have topped that im going to be devastated.

It wouldn't top it at a 5ver because Boston went off at 6/5 and Brindisi went off at 7/1.

You'd be looking around 18/1.

So coupled with my £10 e/e at 9/1 we're talking about £180 plus my stake back?

Yeah im p!ssed.

Ive only got a feeble 5 each way on weird al and £10 on Burtons Port left for the day.

What a race!

Any tips for this amateur?

Mick Fitzgerald tipped Salsify, saying he looked phenomenal in the warm up.

3 in a row for me, plus had Oscar Delta e/w. going well so far!

King Beer wrote:Mick Fitzgerald tipped Salsify, saying he looked phenomenal in the warm up.

Good man KB, you tipped the scales in Salisfys direction!

I need one more winner for 10 this week.

liverbnz wrote:

King Beer wrote:Mick Fitzgerald tipped Salsify, saying he looked phenomenal in the warm up.

Good man KB, you tipped the scales in Salisfys direction!

Thank Mick Fitz mate.

Have Bourne and boccani e/w in this one. Funny feeling my luck will end here.

Open Hearted and Molotof.

Good start with Brindisi at 8s but all went west on Long Run.It looked like a carbo copy of last year,he was in position A but when he was asked he just came back under his jockey.Hes run to Newbury form with Burton Port but the proximity of The Giant Bolster gives the form a more than suspect look.Synchronised did well to get into contention from where he was after a circuit but the race seemed to fall apart up front with Midnight Chase,Time for Rupert and China Rock all falling in a heap,that to me screams that they have in fact gone over quick,got racing too early and havent seen it out.Its a knee jerk reaction to right off the form and decry the run of Long Run but you have to let the dust settle,see if anything comes to light to possibly explain the running of any of the principals,on the day the Mccoy ridden stayer was the best horse.

Synchronised had no right to win that Gold Cup, he hit nearly every fence. LOng run looked comfortable for the majority. A different jockey might have got the result.

A different jockey(professional) would only probably benefit Long Runs fencing.Someone like Geraghty would certainly organise him and make his mind up for him where his sometimes scruffy jumping is concerned.Can a pro jockey make him run quicker...of course not.Sam did nothing wrong today,he was right there where he needed to be throughout,the horse just didnt have the extra zip that he showed in winning last years renewal.

liverbnz wrote:Synchronised had no right to win that Gold Cup, he hit nearly every fence. LOng run looked comfortable for the majority. A different jockey might have got the result.

I don't think the top horses ran to their best form and Synchronised being a dual national winner was always going to be staying on at the end.

I would like to see him go for the National. He has a longer break between Cheltenham and Aintree in his favour plus the ground will be good which will definitely help the big weights.

Better horses than Synchronised have tried and failed to do the Gold Cup/ National double.11-10 will cripple him,he had a hard race at Cheltenham,he doesnt do anything easily.He has NO chance.

racingnut wrote:Better horses than Synchronised have tried and failed to do the Gold Cup/ National double.11-10 will cripple him,he had a hard race at Cheltenham,he doesnt do anything easily.He has NO chance.

I don't think he will win the National if he goes for it but I do think the circumstances this year are worth giving it a go.

You are probably right,the "numbers" will never be this much in his favour again but if the added up every time a horse ran then we'd all be rich and all bookies would be skint! Cheltenham takes a lot of getting over and i cant think for one moment that the hard race he had in the Gold Cup wont have left something of a mark.Having sat down and thought about it and mulled over the form again ive come to the conclusion that Long Run might still be feeling the effects of his hard race in last years lung busting renewal,so to ask the winner to slog it out over 4m4 with 11-10 four weeks later is ,to most sane people anyway,going to the well once too often.

Its hard for any winner to win at Cheltenham then repeat the feat at Aintree. To ask a horse to do that in the 2 most grueling races of the meetings is a lot.