Wouldn't Mind An Isner Win AND Race to be 1 After US Open

First topic message reminder :

For Comments on Ranking Race See Latest Comments

Many years from now, Roger Federer will be sat around the fire with his grandchildren and he will regale them with stories of two imposters: triumph and disaster. When they ask "but Grandpa, what was your one biggest regret", surely he might respond with a deep sigh "Losing the 2012 Indian Wells final. It surely destroyed everything I fought for."

Of course, that's nonsense. My point is that this is a really big match, but only for one of the two players involved. There's a lot of Rog/Rafa threads but let's move on and give Isner some credit and have a discussion about him, and the final.

There's a lot of talk about Isner really arriving on the scene and moving up the rankings and going on from here. I could be wrong, but I don't buy it. I think, when I watch him, he looks like he's already maximised his talent. Also, he may look like he's just walked off the set of Saved By The Bell or American Pie but did you realise he is actually 27 next month? Very few tennis players peak at a later age - at least in terms of ability to acheive results vs the ever improving competition. So when is Isner's peak. Well, I'd say it's now. And I mean right now. This weekend.

Realistically, how many chances like this is he going to get? No less than the last 16 masters have been eagerly gobbled up by top 4 ranked players (including one for Robin Soderling who snuck the 4 after taking Paris). Meanwhile, John Isner has made one QF and one SF before at this level. At slam level he has made one quarter. I don't see him ever winning a slam. I see him winning 0 or 1 masters in his whole career. This is it for Isner. This is as important a match for him as a slam final is for the big four.

If Federer loses, so what. Yes it would be nice for him to get a masters series. He only won Paris in recent times and that was against a weakened field. Prior to that we need to go back to Cincinatti 2010. But even so, he has got Rotterdam and Dubai, hardly tin pot tournaments, in the bank already. It would also be nice for him to win 2 tournaments in a row that the no 1 player participated in, beating his conquerer on both occassions. What he really needs though is a slam and for me a win against one of the other top players, especially Nadal, was more important at this stage than a tournament win. It would be nice for him to tie Rafa at 19 for masters series wins today, but it's not a big record, and it's one Rafa will probably take back at some stage anyway.

Isner seems like a nice guy to me, so good luck to him. I wouldn't go as far to say as I am actually supporting him to win. I am a Roger fan, and I will probably be edging towards him when it really comes down to it. Also, I'm not predicting he will actually do it either. I am in no hurry to rush to the bookies to get the currently best available odds of 4-1: which rate him as having a 20% chance. To be honest, I see Federer 2-0, but then again I foresaw Djokovic 2-0 yesterday. Isner's performance did surprise me but can he really repeat it?

Interesting to note, if Federer wins no-one will have a positive head to head against him this season, but an Isner win makes it 2-0. On another side note, yesterday the official website noted that "The 30 year old leads the circuit with a 21-2 mark in 2012". Well if he wins Indian Wells on top of Dubai and Rotterdam for 3 tournaments, who is having the best season so far, Federer, or Djokovic with only one tournament, but a slam?

FO points
Nadal 2000
Djokovic 1200
Federer 720

Points Updated After French Open (Paris)

Federer
Basle 500
Paris 1,000
WTF 1,500
Doha 90
AO 720
Rotterdam 500
Dubai 500
IW 1,000
Miami 45
Madrid 1000
Rome 360
French Open 720
TOTAL 7935

Djokovic
Basel 180
Paris 180
WTF 200
AO 2000
Dubai 180
IW 360
Miami 1000
Monte Carlo 600
Madrid 180
Rome 600
French Open 1,200
TOTAL 6680

Nadal
Tokyo 300
Shanghai 90
WTF 200
Doha 90
AO 1,200
IW 360
Miami 360
Monte Carlo 1000
Barcelona 500
Madrid 90
Rome 1000
French Open 2,000
TOTAL 7190

Federer 7935
Nadal 7190
Djokovic 6680

Nadal's strong clay court season has put him right into the middle of a race where he previously looked strong favourite. At the start of the clay court season, we might have expected it to be more split with Djokovic and others.

A fairly even race at the moment, with Wimbledon and US Open being key.

Djokovic's match point saves against Tsonga ultimately bought him 840, 1320 in total relative to Federer since he also went on to deny Federer a final place.

I take from the above that Fed needs at least to reach the semi final @ Wimbledon in order to keep level (competitive) with Nadal and Djokovic (regardless of which of the two win Wimbledon)?

After that, I'm guessing performances @ Olympics, Cinci & Canada will be crucial: whichever of the top 3 does well at those tournaments will have the potentially significant edge?

Bottom line seems to be that if Federer wins a Slam he gets it. If he doesn't he probably doesn't.

Isn't it tedious though that none of us envision early exits for the top boys. No wild card events?

I just hope for someone - Raonic? - to one along and give us some surprises.

Federer
Basle 500
Paris 1,000
WTF 1,500
Doha 90
AO 720
Rotterdam 500
Dubai 500
IW 1,000
Miami 45
Madrid 1000
Rome 360
French Open 720
Halle 150
Wimbledon 2000
TOTAL 10085

Djokovic
Basel 180
Paris 180
WTF 200
AO 2000
Dubai 180
IW 360
Miami 1000
Monte Carlo 600
Madrid 180
Rome 600
French Open 1,200
Wimbledon 700
TOTAL 7380

Nadal
Tokyo 300
Shanghai 90
WTF 200
Doha 90
AO 1,200
IW 360
Miami 360
Monte Carlo 1000
Barcelona 500
Madrid 90
Rome 1000
French Open 2,000
Halle 45
Wimbledon 90
TOTAL 7325

Federer 10,085
Nadal 7,380
Djokovic 7,325

Well, well. Federer is miles ahead now. 10,000 pts already since USO!

He looks big favourite to be 1 after US Open. In fact Nadal or Djokovic probably have to win it just to have a chance.

Should add Murray now he's done well at Wimbledon, but don't think he can get it either.

Of course, although Federer is favourite to be #1 after the US open, I believe Djokovic may well get #1 back in the interim, most likely straight away if he outperforms Fed at the Olympics. However this would quite possibly be temporary, since Djokovic has to defend 1 title and 1 final in the 2 US masters.

Of course, the reason I did the thread of race to the US Open was because I thought that was the most likely point Djokovic could lose it. In reality, it's happened sooner. So in a sense, this thread has lost its purpose. The Sampras record has gone already. However I think I'll continue it to the end.

Although the year end no 1 looks more interesting now.

Yes, and 300 weeks along the way.

>10,000 without the US swing!!! Incredible.

Yeah you should open a YE1 race.

That looks very close between the top three.

300? for what?

emancipator wrote:Yeah you should open a YE1 race.

That looks very close between the top three.

http://live-tennis.eu/race

emancipator wrote:300? for what?

Weeks @ #1. Just a silly milestone.

I checked and I think Murray's is 5730, so he's not in the race. Even if Federer breaks his leg tonight celebrating and Murray mops up the Olympics, the US Open, Cincinatti and Toronto..oh wait a minute, actually that would do it! But it'd literally need something like that to happen so it's only mathematically plausible not actually realistic. And Fed can snuff that out simply by outperforming Murray at the Olympics.

So there are only 3 players in the race to be #1 after the US Open.

Henman Bill wrote:I checked and I think Murray's is 5730, so he's not in the race. Even if Federer breaks his leg tonight celebrating and Murray mops up the Olympics, the US Open, Cincinatti and Toronto..oh wait a minute, actually that would do it! But it'd literally need something like that to happen so it's only mathematically plausible not actually realistic. And Fed can snuff that out simply by outperforming Murray at the Olympics.

So there are only 3 players in the race to be #1 after the US Open.

What are his chances of going higher at all?

Murray's chances of going up from 4 to 3 or 2 before the US Open (or just after), is that what you want to know? Not great to be honest.

Points since last USO:

Nadal 7,380
Djokovic 7,325
Murray 5,730

So to be higher ranked than either of those other 2 after the US Open Murray has to outscore them by over 1,500 points. Realistically he will need to win the US Open as well as do well in other tournaments. Murray also has quite a bit of points to defend in Asia after that.

Difficult to see Murray moving up the rankings for a while to be honest. He has to really do spectacularly well.

I think the first half of next year (from just after the AO to just before Wimbledon) would be a realistic target time frame for Murray to improve his ranking.

Henman Bill wrote:Murray's chances of going up from 4 to 3 or 2 before the US Open (or just after), is that what you want to know? Not great to be honest.

Points since last USO:

Nadal 7,380
Djokovic 7,325
Murray 5,730

So to be higher ranked than either of those other 2 after the US Open Murray has to outscore them by over 1,500 points. Realistically he will need to win the US Open as well as do well in other tournaments. Murray also has quite a bit of points to defend in Asia after that.

Difficult to see Murray moving up the rankings for a while to be honest. He has to really do spectacularly well.

I think the first half of next year (from just after the AO to just before Wimbledon) would be a realistic target time frame for Murray to improve his ranking.

Thanks HB.

Federer
Basle 500
Paris 1,000
WTF 1,500
Doha 90
AO 720
Rotterdam 500
Dubai 500
IW 1,000
Miami 45
Madrid 1000
Rome 360
French Open 720
Halle 150
Wimbledon 2000
Olympics 450
TOTAL 10535

Djokovic
Basel 180
Paris 180
WTF 200
AO 2000
Dubai 180
IW 360
Miami 1000
Monte Carlo 600
Madrid 180
Rome 600
French Open 1,200
Wimbledon 700
Olympics 270
TOTAL 7650

Nadal
Tokyo 300
Shanghai 90
WTF 200
Doha 90
AO 1,200
IW 360
Miami 360
Monte Carlo 1000
Barcelona 500
Madrid 90
Rome 1000
French Open 2,000
Halle 45
Wimbledon 90
Olympics 0
TOTAL 7325

Federer 10,535
Djokovic 7,650
Nadal 7,325
Murray 6,480 (full breakdown not shown)

Federer still holds a big lead in race to be no 1 after the US Open.

Murray is now mathematically out of the race.

Nadal and Djokovic need something spectacular to get no 1 (immediately) after the US Open.

Race to Year End no 1:
Federer 7,545
Djokovic 7,110
Nadal 6,840
Murray 4,540
Ferrer 4,040

http://live-tennis.eu/race

Mcenroe might not just have commented that Murray could be year end no 1 if he'd seen this. It's possible but realistically we have an exciting 3-horse race. With Nadal very much 3rd favourite given the history and all the fast courts that remain.

I remember back in May I was hoping that Fed might just sneak that #1 spot at the USO given that Novak (and, to a lesser extent, Rafa) would be dropping a lot of points. Now, we are still one month away, but he looks like he is quite likely to stay there even if he plays relatively poorly between now and then. It has worked out quite a bit better than I expected at that time.

I think you've got to take Fed's 90 points off for Doha because he's got an enforced 0 for one of the 500's he missed.

Henman Bill wrote:Race to Year End no 1:
Federer 7,545
Djokovic 7,110
Nadal 6,840
Murray 4,540
Ferrer 4,040

http://live-tennis.eu/race

Mcenroe might not just have commented that Murray could be year end no 1 if he'd seen this. It's possible but realistically we have an exciting 3-horse race. With Nadal very much 3rd favourite given the history and all the fast courts that remain.

Not impossible for Murray a Slam, two Masters and the O2 and he's doubled his points. Don't think it will happen, but noboady will be shocked if it dud

banbrotam wrote:Not impossible for Murray a Slam, two Masters and the O2 and he's doubled his points. Don't think it will happen, but noboady will be shocked if it dud

Don't know about shocked but I would be surprised. More importantly, even that would likely not be enough to get him to #1. I think if you are thinking #1 for Andy, it realistically needs to be sometime next year.

I am deliberately ignoring any countables type issues and as a result just providing a broad indication rather than precise accuracy. I am also ignoring Davis Cup. I don't think it will make much difference anyway if Federer can maintain this lead.

Henman Bill wrote:Race to Year End no 1:
Federer 7,545
Djokovic 7,110
Nadal 6,840
Murray 4,540
Ferrer 4,040

http://live-tennis.eu/race

Mcenroe might not just have commented that Murray could be year end no 1 if he'd seen this. It's possible but realistically we have an exciting 3-horse race. With Nadal very much 3rd favourite given the history and all the fast courts that remain.

Not like John to jump aboard a bandwagon

Djokovic getting a boost with Fed pulling out of Toronto.

Short of a shock Fed has #1 after the US Open in the bag. It's Shanghai when the #1 positition will be genuinely on the edge again. Fed will need a very big lead going into Basel if he's to win the y/e #1

barrystar wrote:Short of a shock Fed has #1 after the US Open in the bag. It's Shanghai when the #1 positition will be genuinely on the edge again. Fed will need a very big lead going into Basel if he's to win the y/e #1

Very fair analysis fed needs Djoko to play poorly at the open and he needs a nice gap going into the indoor season because federer has massive points to defend in the indoor season.

The defending points scenario doesn't matter for YE1.

It's a straight race from beginning of the year to the end.

As it stands, the top three are very close, with Fed just having the edge.

Whoever outperforms the other two from now on will likely end the year as number one.

True emancipator, I think it really is a two horse race for #1 but it will be very close either way. This year has been very close and competitve among the top 4.

I can't really see Federer holding y/e, especially now he's dumped Toronto. I'm more interested to see if he can get to 300 weeks.

If he won the USO then everything changes of course, and he gets to look at another y/e and coincidentally 313 weeks, being 6 whole years.

By forfeiting Toronto Roger will lose a lot of ground to Novak in the YE race for number 1, if Novak were to win in Toronto.

That basically gives him an extra 1000 points, so Roger would have to outperform Novak by a similar amount in the remaining tourneys - a tough ask.

Likewise for Rafa. By not playing in Toronto he too will concede a lot of points to Novak.

Well, #1 isn't on the line this week - Fed leads by 165, but drops 90 from last year. Djokovic is defending 1000 for winning the title. I think the odds are that Fed will have a bigger lead after the tournament, as I don't see Djokovic defending it. As for the race to Y/E #1, obviously this gives Djoko a chance to close the gap, but I don't think he'll have a big tournament, so the effect will be minimal.

Murray can in theory pass Nadal to #3 by winning this tournament, although I think most of us are realistic enough to accept that's very unlikely after the emotions of the last few days. Even if he did, it woud only be for a couple of weeks until the Cinci points drop off. A good end of season could see him as y/e #3 though - might not even need to be all that good if Rafa is out of action for a while. 2nd and 1st look a long way ahead though.

This is useful.

http://live-tennis.eu/forecast_atp_ranking

Toronto is now off and in 2 weeks Cincinatti too, and after that the USO. it's striking how little Federer has on the line, and how much Djokovic does!

It is a scary time for Djokovic at the moment. It is difficult to see when his next tournament victory will come from. On current form it I can't see him winning Toronto, Cincinatti or even New York.

I do wonder how Nadal will fit into the mix. He didn't play much at the start of the year and made the Australian Open final. Not sure we will see that replicated at New York.

Not a chance in the world of Andy Murray ending up year-ending No.1 this year. However, I am sure he has his eye on bigger prizes such as his first slam win. He has to do that first then he can begin plotting an assault on the world No.1 slot some time next year or the year after perhaps.

CC

Largely agree - for Andy at the moment, rankings are largely irrelevant, he just has to win tournaments and mount a serious challenge for the USO. His Olympic form and back to back victories over Djokovic and Federer should help his confidence and increase the likelihood that if he gets to the late stages of a slam that he'll push through and win.

The rankings, and particularly the challenge to get to #1 will only come if the results do. I do think though there's a decent chance he'll be #3 by the end of the year and not that far behind #2.

dummy_half wrote:CC

Largely agree - for Andy at the moment, rankings are largely irrelevant, he just has to win tournaments and mount a serious challenge for the USO. His Olympic form and back to back victories over Djokovic and Federer should help his confidence and increase the likelihood that if he gets to the late stages of a slam that he'll push through and win.

The rankings, and particularly the challenge to get to #1 will only come if the results do. I do think though there's a decent chance he'll be #3 by the end of the year and not that far behind #2.

Exactly, how many events has Federer had to win to just recapture it? what did Djokovic have to do to hold it?

It takes shedloads to get to #1 and one very encouraging event doesn't even begin to take him there. What it does do is get him the Gold Medal, now it's back to the tour.

Seriously for Andy to be near 2 will require success in Toronto or Cincinatti. US Open glory. Defend points in Bangok, Toykyo and Shanghai and win the WTF.

That is a Poopie of tennis he has to play and not only that, but great tennis too.

Look at Djokovic start of this year. Won the Australian Open and Miami and the his form sunk like a stone.

He had to defend at Melbourne, Indian Wells, Miami, Madrid and Rome and physically that took it's toll and that's not including the Federer purple patch.

emancipator wrote:The defending points scenario doesn't matter for YE1.

It's a straight race from beginning of the year to the end.

As it stands, the top three are very close, with Fed just having the edge.

Whoever outperforms the other two from now on will likely end the year as number one.

That's true of course, and that's the easiest way to look at it.

But if you look at the 12 month ranking it is also true that Fed will need to have accumulated a substantial lead on that ranking before Basel if he's going to have a good chance at YE1 - in order to do that he needs to fare similarly to Djoko between now and then.

Federer
Basle 500
Paris 1,000
WTF 1,500
Doha 90
AO 720
Rotterdam 500
Dubai 500
IW 1,000
Miami 45
Madrid 1000
Rome 360
French Open 720
Halle 150
Wimbledon 2000
Olympics 450
Canada 0
TOTAL 10535

Djokovic
Basel 180
Paris 180
WTF 200
AO 2000
Dubai 180
IW 360
Miami 1000
Monte Carlo 600
Madrid 180
Rome 600
French Open 1,200
Wimbledon 700
Olympics 270
Canada 1,000
TOTAL 8650

Nadal
Tokyo 300
Shanghai 90
WTF 200
Doha 90
AO 1,200
IW 360
Miami 360
Monte Carlo 1000
Barcelona 500
Madrid 90
Rome 1000
French Open 2,000
Halle 45
Wimbledon 90
Olympics 0
Canada 0
TOTAL 7325

Federer 10,535
Djokovic 8,650
Nadal 7,325

Murray was already mathematically eliminated from the race to no 1 after the US Open, leaving it is a 3 horse race. As Nadal did not enter Canada, he is also mathematically eliminated after Canada. I cannot be sure this is correct because it is quite close and I have ignored countables and Davis Cup. (EDIT: However when we consider he is not playing Cincinatti or US Open, he is obviously out.)

Djokovic has won Canada and narrowed the gap with Federer to just under 2,000 points so it is not over yet but he probably needs to win Cincinatti to stay in the race.

Roger Federer is certain to go into the US Open with the No. 1 South African Airways ATP Ranking after winning his ninth straight meeting with countryman Stanislas Wawrinka 7-6(4), 6-3 in the semi-finals of the Western & Southern Open on Saturday in Cincinnati.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2012/08/33/Cincinnati-Saturday-Djokovic-Plays-Del-Potro-Federer-Faces-Wawrinka.aspx

Novak is actually doing very well this year on the hardcourt. Roger has also been very imposing with his serve. I think the surface favors Roger as this is probably the quickest outdoor hardcourt that the top guys all play on and Roger is the bigger server and flatter hitter who uses his slice muce more. It will be tough for Novak to win, I think this really is 50/50. Novak has been in good form and I think is the better hardcourt player at this stage of the career but Roger is the better quck court player on a very fast court.

I agree 100% with Socal. Novak was looking 2:1 favourite against Roger in matchups before his Wimbledon loss, and Roger has been on the up, and Novak's form not quite as before, so now it's probably 60:40. But as mentioned the surface changes this one to 50:50.

HB, today's win I think means Roger will come away as #1 after the USO irrespective of what happens there, right?

Roger has far exceeded my expectations this summer, it really looks now like he has given himself a realistic chance to fight for the YE #1 which I thought was never in the cards.

I would still make Nole the favorite to take the YE #1 though. A lot will depend on the USO, but even there I favor Nole over Roger.

Ah, just saw BB's thread...

Cincinatti result

Federer 10,535 + 1,000 = 11,535
Djokovic 8,650 + 600 = 9,250

Federer looks by 2,285 with only 2,000 available at the US Open so it looks like he has already won the race to be no 1 after the US Open. However as I have ignored countables and Davis Cup I can't be sure until I see the rankings updated on the ATP website.

Let me check... (rolling ranking points)

Federer 12,165
Djokovic 11,270

Federer SF last year so - 720 = 11,445 (vs my 11,535)
Djokovic W last year so - 2,000 = 9,270 (vs my 9,250)

Looks like my calculation had a few very minor imperfections. So I think the race to the US Open is over. Well done old man!

Odds are Federer will be ranked #1 now until Paris in November at least.

Henman Bill wrote:
Looks like my calculation had a few very minor imperfections. So I think the race to the US Open is over. Well done old man!

In case you're wondering what they are: Federer can't count Doha, that's the 90 pts difference; Djokovic gets 720 pts for the SF at Wimbledon, not 700.

I was wondering so thanks, but didn't think it was worth it to compare all the data and work it out.

So from your calculations it looks like Fed wil definitely hit 300 weeks on 22-10-2012.

Unprecedented - TMF continues to amaze.

reckoner wrote:So from your calculations it looks like Fed wil definitely hit 300 weeks on 22-10-2012.

Unprecedented - TMF continues to amaze.

One needs to look to the woman's side with Navratilova at 332 weeks and Graf's Parche-assisted 377 weeks for the comparison.

The women's game from the 80s isn't really comparable for me, barry, thanks all the same!