Don't read any further if you don't like stats - 6Ns team summary

In an effort to try to understand the abject way in which Scotland finished the 2012 6Ns tournament and to put it into perspective vis-a-vis the championship as a whole, I've crunched thru the match statistics from espnscrum.com and compiled them. But before I provide the data and my (sometimes tongue-in-cheek commentary), let's remember that there's only one table at the end of the day which matters and it's this one:

Pos... Team...P...W...D...L...F...A...PD...TF...Pts
1...Wales...5...5...0...0...109...58...51...10...10
2...England...5...4...0...1...98...71...27...6...8
3...Ireland...5...2...1...2...121 ...94...27...13...5
4...France...5...2...1...2...101 ...86...15...8...5
5...Italy...5...1...0...4...53...121...-68...4...2
6...Scotland...5...0...0...5...56...108...-52...4...0

Once again, congratulations Wales

Part one of my compiled stats data shows that the team(s) that score the least tries appear at the bottom of the table - no surprises there! When drop goals attempts are not included (France can breathe a sigh of relief), Italy have the poorest kicking success rate, while Ireland have the best (congrats Jonny Sexton, sorry Sin E ). With no Dan Parks in this tournament (apart from one game), DGs didn't feature much!

Country...Tries...Conversion S/M...Penalty S/M...Kick success...DGs
ENGLAND...8...6/8...14/20...71%...0
FRANCE...8...5/9...16/21...70%...1
IRELAND...13...13/10...12/15...79%...0
ITALY...4...3/4...7/15...53%...2
SCOTLAND...4...3/4...10/13...76%...0
WALES...10...7/10...15/ 21...71%...0

Part two is an effort to illustrate what teams did with the ball. England kicked the most ball and Scotland the least, but as we now, territory is key in today's game so I don't read anything into it, other than Scotland could have kicked more and tried to run less from their own 22, and a team like England that were struggling for territory are inevitably going to kick the most. England also passed least, ran the least and for least metres, but that's perhaps simply reflective of the limited possession that they had, while Scotland passed the most, ran the most for the most yardage (shame it was all to such little effect!):

Country...Kicks from hand...Passes...Runs...Metres run...Possession...Territory
ENGLAND...147...492...391...1627...45%...44%
FRANCE...128...586...504...1927...48%...45%
IRELAND...116...549...468...1678...48%...49%
ITALY...121...601...472...1669...51%...52%
SCOTLAND...97...846...650...2150...54%...52%
WALES...131...756...594...2059...55%...57%

Part 3 takes a greater look at how effective teams were in attack with ball in hand and gives some insight into what tactics some teams employed. Ireland and (to my huge surprise) Scotland had the most clean breaks, with Wales not far behind, while England had the least. Champions Wales contrived to beat the most defenders by some margin, perhaps that is a key to success, while Italy secured less than half of their total in last place. Scotland, as we all know, were trying to play a fast offloading game, which largely seems to be borne out by the numers, while England took the ball into contact most frequently (not necessarily a bad thing if the support players are there and it can be recycled quickly), with Wales next:

Country...Clean breaks...Defenders beaten...Offloads
ENGLAND...12...36...18
FRANCE...24...64...50
IRELAND...31...58...30
ITALY...13...29...32
SCOTLAND...31...58...67
WALES...29...75...29

We can take a closer look at the breakdown and contact areas in part 4. Ireland were the most successful rucking team (despite their much vaunted choke tackle and maul preference), with England the least profitable at ruck time, but to be honest, all the teams were very close, and this stat gives no indication of the speed of the ball secured at rucks. Scotland were the top mauling outfit (take a bow Ross Rennie), with Wales and Ireland not far behind, with Italy the less successful mauling team. Not surprisingly the team that finished top of the overall table conceded least turnovers, emphasizing just how important it is to protect your possession:

Country...Rucks won/rucks/success rate...Mauls won/mauls/success rate...Turnovers conceded
ENGLAND...320/350/91%...11/14/79%...74
FRANCE...369/398/93%...17/21/81%...82
IRELAND...373/394/95%...11/13/85%...66
ITALY...376/405/93%...19/25/76%...84
SCOTLAND...494/524/94%...9/10/90%...73
WALES...488/526/93%...11/13/85%...56

France, Ireland and Wales had the strongest defensive stats, with Italy the lowest, but the dispersion is pretty low - not much to call between any of the teams, altho at international level, perhaps it is true that small margins count. Nor do these numbers shed any light on where tackles were missed - afterall as Scotland found out against Ireland, if you miss (virtually) all your tackles in your own 5m area, then you're feiced!:

Country...Tackles made...Tackles missed...Tackle success
ENGLAND...540...59...90%
FRANCE...584...48...92%
IRELAND...549...50...92%
ITALY...516...68...88%
SCOTLAND...515...50...91%
WALES...525...45...92%

The 6th table focuses on the set-piece, with one dominant team at scrumtime (take a bow Gethin Jenkins and Adam Jones), and honours shared at lineout time between England, Italy and Scotland (despite the complete malfunction versus Italy). From having had the most successful NH lineout for some years, it does appear that the absence of the Bull's lifting is costing Ireland dear , altho Ryan's efforts in the final two games are worthy of mention:

Country...Scrums on own feed - won/lost...Scrum success...Lineouts on own throw - won/lost...Lineout success
ENGLAND...31/3...91%...42/7...86%
FRANCE...37/4...90%...46/8...85%
IRELAND...25/7...78%...31/9...78%
ITALY...23/10...70%...54/9...86%
SCOTLAND...33/4...89%...48/8...86%
WALES...22/1...96%...58/11...84%

Last but not least we can look at discipline. France should be lauded for their efforts in both measures, penalties conceded and cards, while Scotland and Wales (surprisingly) weren't so clever in keeping a full complement on the pitch. We also don't have any information on where the penalties were conceded - it might be that conceding a penalty and a possible 3 points rather than a certain try is the right decision to make in some circumstances:

Country...Penalties conceded...Yellow/red cards
ENGLAND...52...1/0
FRANCE...41...0/0
IRELAND...57...1/0
ITALY...57...2/0
SCOTLAND...55...5/0
WALES...56...4/0


Anyway, hope you find them useful. So has all this given me closure, has the anger abated? Not a chance!! I'm still waiting for Andy Robinson to do the honourable thing.

I'm half way thru compiling individual player stats and will report on those in the next day or so for those brave enough to come back for a second dose!

PS Any transcription or manipulation errors are mine and mine alone

AsLongAs,
Fantastic effort, insightful and casts a completely different light on the whole competition. Can't wait for the detailed individual analysis.

You have successfuly proven beyond all doubt that stats don't mean didly squat and can play no part in taking away the pain.

So.....

Ireland won?



(P.S. Could you remove the YC from Ireland and add a RC to Wales as per the citing committee!)

MrsP wrote:So.....

Ireland won?



(P.S. Could you remove the YC from Ireland and add a RC to Wales as per the citing committee!)

Nope, and you'll notice that I didn't reference either incident deliberately in order not to reopen those two particular can o'worms - ah, but too late now!

Do you want me to edit so as not to spoil it?

Nah, our fellow Welsh posters are big enough to ignore your blatant provocation, MrsP (and anyway, they're still basking in GS glory and couldn't give a rat's harris!!)

Just wanted your stats to be accurate there buddy!

Thanks for sharing those mate.

Those stats just prove how close many aspects of Scotland's game is to all the other nations. It is all about inches is what we are consistently told.

Though the depth in Scotland especially in the backs is poor. Once Scotland find a few more contenders for every position outside of the flyhalf they will be a very competitive side.

MrsP wrote:Just wanted your stats to be accurate there buddy!

Oh aye, you're nothing if you're not a stickler for detail, MrsP!

As

Do you actually do ANY work at all?

Max respect though for providing this info.

Unless of course, you're the Director of Research for ESPN?

Tattie Scones RRN wrote:As

Do you actually do ANY work at all?

Max respect though for providing this info.

Unless of course, you're the Director of Research for ESPN?

The beauty of being my own boss!

you look at these stats, and you wonder how on earth England came 2nd, though their set piece was excellent

in fact I'd suggest the key stats are still "tries scored" and "tries conceded" with maybe a dash of "penalties conceded" thrown in.

Tough to argue with that, Mad for, altho for me 'Defenders beaten, scrummaging, and 'Possession' also stood out for champions Wales

Cracking stat As, very much appreciate the hard work!

Two aspects, firstly the kicks from hand and the running meters, they go hand in hand to a certain extent, usually you will find the teams that run from deep has inflated figures due to the fact that each of those runs can gain 20 meters before the first line of defence is met.

Beating a defender would mean a more significant gain through the defence in my opinion as it means you have drawn a defender who missed, whereas a clean break only means you breached the line of defence without drawing a defender and cover defence could still pull you down.

The ruck stat is probably the most difficult to take anything from as it doesn't depict slow or fast ruck ball.

ASBO, you better not let Taffin see this, you will be in for a rollicking.

I'm impressed, although that's mainly because it looks like Wales may have a decent lineout after all.

also, not to be pedantic or anything, but how come Scotland have a better percentage of scrums won than France when Scotland are 33/4 to France's 37/4?

Thanks, Mad for, incorrectly reference 'Tackle success' - corrected now - cheers

To be fair to Andy Robinson, you cant polish a jobbie

It would be good to see Wales' lineout stats broken down between, "nice clean ball as planned" and "lucky to bounce of soandso's head and drop into a welshman's hands. " Still the number one area for improvement after years of seeing the same below standard performances

France 41 penalties - that's because Barnes kept his whistle in his pocket in the last quarter at Murrayfield.

scoi wrote:It would be good to see Wales' lineout stats broken down between, "nice clean ball as planned" and "lucky to bounce of soandso's head and drop into a welshman's hands. " Still the number one area for improvement after years of seeing the same below standard performances

In 2005 our line out was shocking.

Some amazing stats in there. If I'd looked at all the tables bar the first two, I'd have thought Scotland would have won this tournament.

Must admit I didn't watch them a lot being middle of the night stuff but those of the kind of comparative numbers we have (less kicks, more meters, breaks etc) so finishing is obviously a problem. But that's the thing that stands out for me from those figures.

Cheers for all these ASBO.

I think it just shows you can play any gameplan you want, what counts is the finishing.

At international levelin attack and defence it comes down to a matter of inches/seconds/(other tiny measurements).

Surprised Englands kicking wasn't better, Farrell must have missed more then I remember. It's also interesting that the top two teams made the least offloads, at international level it really is just too risky. Just ask Scotland.

I'm amazed England did come out in second place after seeing all of this, the Italy and Scotland games must have seen us playing even worse then I remember!

Be interesting to see these compared to last years and then next years.

Cheers Asbo. Hugely informative. Doesnt make it any easier to take does it!

yappysnap wrote:Cheers for all these ASBO.

I think it just shows you can play any gameplan you want, what counts is the finishing.

At international levelin attack and defence it comes down to a matter of inches/seconds/(other tiny measurements).

Surprised Englands kicking wasn't better, Farrell must have missed more then I remember. It's also interesting that the top two teams made the least offloads, at international level it really is just too risky. Just ask Scotland.

I'm amazed England did come out in second place after seeing all of this, the Italy and Scotland games must have seen us playing even worse then I remember!

Be interesting to see these compared to last years and then next years.

yappy, I think you could be on to one thing there - defence at this level just too strong for a chaotic, flowing offloading game to work? Scotland fared best in the Geech and Telfer eras (first time) when the played a fast & furious rucking game - perhaps we should go back to that, altho the breakdown laws make that a lot more difficult these days

Taylorman wrote:Some amazing stats in there. If I'd looked at all the tables bar the first two, I'd have thought Scotland would have won this tournament.

Must admit I didn't watch them a lot being middle of the night stuff but those of the kind of comparative numbers we have (less kicks, more meters, breaks etc) so finishing is obviously a problem. But that's the thing that stands out for me from those figures.

Finishing has become a massive issue for the Scots - I think we expend so much energy getting into the oppos 22, with this fast, flowing off-loading game, that we're too knackered to think strait when we get there, and our decision-making goes to Poopie!

Where is the "I couldn't be a*sed to attempt a tackle that I might have missed" stat?That is the killer stat,I reckon.

Scotland would top that ranking, Taff, so i left it out . Tis a good point tho, does a player have to attempt a tackle for it to qualify as 'missed'?

No. No, no, no, no, no. The master at that is R Priestland.

Good and very interesting presentation. I recall from the Wales Scotland game, the Scots passed the ball a lot but their back line was so deep that by the time the ball had gone across the line they were 30m short of the gain line where they were stopped. Scotland had to kick the ball away or they would end up behind their own line if the kept recycling.

The stats don't take into account the ref's e.g Rowland and Clancy constantly stopping play and making strange decisions including yellow cards for not a lot, from this observation the most rubbish ref's are Irish! Ireland are lucky they don't get exposed to these guys for internationals (the Scottish ref's are worse).

glamorganalun wrote:The stats don't take into account the ref's e.g Rowland and Clancy constantly stopping play and making strange decisions including yellow cards for not a lot, from this observation the most rubbish ref's are Irish! Ireland are lucky they don't get exposed to these guys for internationals (the Scottish ref's are worse).

errr

nganboy wrote:

glamorganalun wrote:The stats don't take into account the ref's e.g Rowland and Clancy constantly stopping play and making strange decisions including yellow cards for not a lot, from this observation the most rubbish ref's are Irish! Ireland are lucky they don't get exposed to these guys for internationals (the Scottish ref's are worse).

errr

Oh we're used to that from our Welsh friends. It's a common call in the Pro12 league too. Irish refs. I think Gatland's comments on Rolland was that he was probably too 'pedantic' - meaning he was too good at his job.

It was Clancy and he wanted to say he wrecked the game and had no feel for it, but couldn't and wasn't clever enough to say he was "determined to be central" or that he "seemed to miss a lot in a game of 25 penalties" or "the more penalties he gave the less control he had on the match"

glamorganalun wrote:Good and very interesting presentation. I recall from the Wales Scotland game, the Scots passed the ball a lot but their back line was so deep that by the time the ball had gone across the line they were 30m short of the gain line where they were stopped. Scotland had to kick the ball away or they would end up behind their own line if the kept recycling.

The stats don't take into account the ref's e.g Rowland and Clancy constantly stopping play and making strange decisions including yellow cards for not a lot, from this observation the most rubbish ref's are Irish! Ireland are lucky they don't get exposed to these guys for internationals (the Scottish ref's are worse).

Alun, I think that is a very prescient point - it's no use playing all the rugby behind the gameline or in the wrong areas of the pitch, and that is where Scotland let themselves down - do you think that is a player or a coach thing tho?

Glas a du wrote:It was Clancy and he wanted to say he wrecked the game and had no feel for it, but couldn't and wasn't clever enough to say he was "determined to be central" or that he "seemed to miss a lot in a game of 25 penalties" or "the more penalties he gave the less control he had on the match"

"....The less control he had" because the players were frustrated that they came across a ref who wasn't going to turn a 'smooth game' blind eye to infringements. As I said in another post, Gatland's comments were of the "Why wasn't he letting us keep it going fast, everyone loves that stuff and we win that way". Nice, but maybe Clancy (yep, it was him - sorry) just had the old hawk eyes for infringements carried out at top speed?