County Championship Preview 2012 – Part 2: Division One

This is Part 2 of my season preview which will also be up on v2journal.com shortly
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The second part of my look ahead to the new county season which starts this Thursday focuses on the nine teams in Division One. Last season was dominated by surprise packages Lancashire and Warwickshire, as ball dominated bat, and the established challenges of Durham and Nottinghamshire faded as the season went on. In 2012 the two London clubs - Surrey and Middlesex - return to the top flight after absences of three and five years respectively.

DURHAM

2011: Championship Division One - 3rd, CB40 - Semi-Finalists, FL t20 - Quarter-Finalists
Captains: Phil Mustard (First-Class), Dale Benkenstein (Limited Overs)
Overseas Players: Herschelle Gibbs (T20), Mitchell Johnson (T20)
Players In: None
Players Out: Kyle Coetzer (Northamptonshire), Ben Harmison, Mark Davies (both Kent)

Although it is now three years since Durham’s back-to-back Championships in 2008 and 2009 they continue to have arguably the strongest squad in the longest form of the game. Sometime England seamers Steve Harmison, Graham Onions and Liam Plunkett remain an exciting bowling unit and are well backed up by Mitchell Claydon, the young leg-spinner Scott Borthwick and experienced all-rounder Ian Blackwell. The batting order is just as formidable with veterans Michael di Venuto, Paul Collingwood and Dale Benkenstein headlining a line-up which also includes the exciting Ben Stokes and captain Phil Mustard. The weather was often an issue last season, and they will feel that if that is avoided this year they should contend for the title. A potential weakness is in the spin department - neither Borthwick or Blackwell are proven match winners - but the Riverside is rarely a spinners paradise in any case. One-day form was improved last year, but they still seem to lack the vibrancy that the likes of Somerset and Surrey have in those formats.

Key Man: Onions. If he stays fit himself, and the other England seamers remain sufficiently fit that he isn’t called upon, Onions is likely to make a lot of opponents tearful this season. After slowly feeling his way back after a long injury lay-off, at the end of last season he was reminding us all why he had become a key part of the Test side. Durham will expect him to capitalise on this with a big haul of wickets this season.

Championship Prediction: 1st

LANCASHIRE

2011: Championship Division One - 1st, CB40 Group C - 4th, FL t20 - Semi-Finalists
Captain: Glen Chapple
Overseas Player: Ashwell Prince
Players In: Naqaash Tahir (Warwickshire)
Players Out: Steven Cheetham (released), Mark Chilton (retired)

The Red Rose county ended one of sport’s most talked about title droughts last season by winning their first Championship since Don Bradman and Wally Hammond were going head-to-head in Ashes encounters. The success came as something of a surprise - none of the players were international stars and many were born in Lancashire. In 2012 pundits will expect more of them, but the batting which was just about good enough to guide the team to a number of narrow wins last season will again come under pressure. Thus, if they are to challenge again the bowling attack of the impressive Kyle Hogg, captain Glen Chapple, ex-England paceman Sajid Mahmood and left-arm spin twins Gary Keedy and Simon Kerrigan will again need to come to the party. Depth also seems an issue, although that did not prevent a challenge on three fronts for much of last season. Early signs from the match against the MCC in Abu Dhabi are promising that the spirit of 2011 can be quickly re-kindled.

Key Man: Chapple. The captain took 55 wickets last season but struggled with injuries. Now 38, he will continue for another year and realise that the Herculean effort he put in to finish the season last time round will probably need to be repeated for the title to remain at Old Trafford. He is also a handy contributor with the bat, and a seemingly inspirational leader.

Championship Prediction: 7th

MIDDLESEX

2011: Championship Division Two - 1st, CB40 Group A - 2nd, FL t20 South Group - 9th
Captain: Neil Dexter
Overseas Player: Chris Rogers
Players In: Joe Denly (Kent), Ollie Rayner (Sussex)
Players Out: Dan Housego (Gloucestershire), Scott Newman (loan, Kent), Jamie Dalrymple (released)

The wait to return to the top tier of the domestic game has been a relatively long one for the team based at the Home of Cricket. However, their promotion last season was reasonably comfortable; something that should provide them with some optimism going into a season where on paper, they could expect to struggle. Australian Chris Rogers and the Irish pair of Paul Stirling and Eoin Morgan - when he returns from IPL bench-warming duties - are likely to be crucial to the batting unit though Sam Robson, another Australian by birth, was quietly an integral part of their success last season and Joe Denly will hope the move to Lord’s will inspire him to return to the form that saw him picked for England in 2009. The bowling is of greater concern. Steven Finn might not be around that much whilst the rest of the seam attack is more workman-like than destructive. One-day prospects have been mixed and hopes of a trophy may depend on whether rumours that the MCC will help fund the signing of a global superstar such as Lasith Malinga are accurate.

Key Man: Morgan. Has only played one Championship match since 2009, and is unlikely to feature until May this time round due to commitments with Kolkata Knight Riders. When he does arrive he will have a lot to prove to the England selectors and, if he can demonstrate his talents, could propel Middlesex to big totals with his unorthodox technique and undoubted talent.

Championship Prediction: 6th

NOTTINGHAMSHIRE

2011: Championship Division One - 6th, CB40 Group C - 2nd, FLt20 - Quarter-Finalists
Captains: Chris Read (Championship and CB40), TBC (T20)
Overseas Player: Adam Voges
Players In: Michael Lumb (Hampshire), Harry Gurney, James Taylor (both Leicestershire)
Players Out: Charlie Shreck (Kent), Akhil Patel (released), Ali Brown, Mark Wagh (both retired)

Nottinghamshire’s squad continues to be packed with star names - England players Stuart Broad, Graeme Swann and Samit Patel to name but a few. However, it is unusual for all of them to be available at the same time and so the club have had to make full use of a large group of players. A strong seam attack includes Andre Adams, Darren Pattinson and new signing Harry Gurney but they still lack a quality spinner when Swann’s away. The batting was poor last year, with coach Mick Newell unable to solve continuing problems at the top of the order - he will hope the signing of Michael Lumb will go some way to solving these. James Taylor will also be crucial and could be the missing piece that allows Nottinghamshire to return to the top of the table. Bowler-friendly pitches at Trent Bridge were key to their success in 2010, but this backfired on them last year. If the batting performs this year they will almost certainly be in the mix come September.

Key Man: Adams. The ex-New Zealand international took 67 wickets last season and, with Broad and Swann unlikely to play very much, it will again be him that Chris Read looks towards as his main strike bowler. He also played a major hand with the bat in a number of matches in 2011. However, the Notts faithful will hope that that is not required this year.

Championship Prediction: 2nd

SOMERSET

2011: Championship Division One - 4th, CB40 - Runners-Up, FL t20 - Runners-Up
Captain: Marcus Trescothick
Overseas Players: Vernon Philander, Chris Gayle (T20), Albie Morkel (T20)
Players In: None
Players Out: Charl Willoughby (Essex), Murali Kartik (Surrey)

County cricket’s nearly men have an exceptional squad and will be desperate to finally win some silverware this year. Well led by Marcus Trescothick, the batting line-up contains both first-class experts such as Nick Compton and James Hildreth and one-day specialists like Craig Kieswetter and Jos Buttler. The addition of Chris Gayle and Albie Morkel will make them overwhelming favourites for the Twenty20. The bowling attack is not bad either, with Vernon Philander joining for the first part of the season. Thereafter Alfonso Thomas and Steve Kirby will be looked at to take wickets on a Taunton pitch which has shown signs of offering more to the seamers in recent years. Spinners George Dockrell and Max Waller are young, but both are talented and will battle between themselves to be number one this year following the departure of Murali Kartik. Anything less than a trophy will be disappointing.

Key Man: Philander. Only with Somerset for the first two months of the season but, on the basis of his international form - he has become the fastest man to 50 Test wickets for over a century - he could swing the Championship in their favour during that short time. Wickets in England should suit his accurate style of bowling, and he is a completely different cricketer from the one that played for Middlesex in 2008.

Championship Prediction: 4th

SURREY

2011: Championship Division Two - 2nd, CB40 - Winners, FLt20 South Group - 5th
Captain: Rory Hamilton-Brown
Overseas Players: Jacques Rudolph, Murali Kartik, Dirk Nannes (T20)
Players In: Jon Lewis (Gloucestershire), Murali Kartik (Somerset), Jacques Rudolph (Yorkshire)
Players Out: Chris Schofield, Simon King (both released), Michael Brown (retired)

Surrey’s promotion and Clydesdale Bank 40 success at the end of 2011 appeared to paper over a few cracks in a season where they rarely looked a dominant force in the second tier. However, their squad looks strong and, unusually for a county side, leaves their coach Chris Adams spoilt for choice in selection - a position he could not have foreseen when he took the job in 2010. Captain Rory Hamilton-Brown is part of an exciting group of young batsmen, along with Jason Roy and Tom Maynard, that mastered the 40-over game last season and came into first-class form in time to take the spoils in the Championship. However, their flamboyant style can also bring batting collapses and so the solider presences of Mark Ramprakash and wicket-keeper Steve Davies are just as important if Surrey have any hopes of more than a relegation battle. They look strong in the bowling department, with Jon Lewis adding more experience to a seam attack already featuring Tim Linley and England internationals Jade Dernbach and Stuart Meaker. Survival will be the first target in the Championship but they will expect to compete for both limited overs trophies

Key Man: Davies. His primary function for England this winter has been as a drinks waiter, but he is an accomplished keeper-batsman at county level. He has often opened the batting in the Championship, reflecting his ability to combine a solid defensive game with an attacking game good enough to have played for England in ODIs before being harshly dropped before last year’s World Cup.

Championship Prediction: 8th

SUSSEX

2011: Championship Division One - 5th, CB40 - Semi-Finalists, FL t20 - Quarter-Finalists
Captain: Michael Yardy
Overseas Players: Steve Magoffin, Scott Styris (T20)
Players In: None
Players Out: Ollie Rayner (Middlesex), Lou Vincent (released)

Sussex continue to field a strong squad in all three forms of the game and will feel that they have an outside change of winning a fourth Championship in ten seasons if things go in their favour. The batting unit, featuring captain Yardy, the improved Chris Nash, Irish international Ed Joyce, club stalwart Murray Goodwin and youngster Luke Wells should be able to cope with even the strongest bowling attacks in the division. Meanwhile, Monty Panesar looks back to his best and will hope that the Hove pitches turn as they often can. The main area of concern will be the pace bowling though. Amjad Khan, Chris Liddle and James Anyon are often underrated but there is not much behind them, particularly once Queenslander Steve Magoffin departs in June. The one-day team remains extremely competitive and will expect to win some silverware this year.

Key Man: Panesar. Monty’s bowling stagnated after quickly becoming a fan favourite following his Test debut in 2006. However, progress seems to have been made since moving to Hove and, given that Swann is likely to remain number one spinner through the summer, it is likely that he will be available to play a decisive part for his county.

Championship Prediction: 3rd

WARWICKSHIRE

2011: Championship Division One - 2nd, CB40 Group B - 5th, FL t20 North Group - 8th
Captain: Jim Troughton
Overseas Players: Jeetan Patel
Players In: Chris Wright (Essex)
Players Out: Naqaash Tahir (Lancashire), Maurice Holmes (released), Ant Botha (retired)

The last two seasons have been a rollercoaster ride for Warwickshire - narrowly surviving in the Championship but good in the shorter formats in 2010; almost winning the Championship but woeful in the Clydesdale Bank 40 and Friends Life t20 in 2011. In 2012 their supporters will expect them to be competitive in all competitions. This is not an unrealistic aspiration - they have a long batting line-up, are perhaps county cricket’s best team in the field, with Rikki Clarke in particular world class in that department, and have a strong and well-balanced seam attack built around the tall Boyd Rankin, new permanent signing Chris Wright and all-rounders Chris Woakes and Neil Carter. One thing they may lack is the number of individual match-winners that the likes of Durham, Nottinghamshire and Somerset have. However, they should finish well clear of the Championship relegation zone and could feasibly win a trophy if they get a good run together.

Key Man: Woakes. Most of Chris Woakes’s initial promise was with the ball, with which he took 56 wickets last season. But he has now become a genuine all-rounder, averaging 48 last season and scoring a Championship hundred. Indeed, it is now likely that any further international honours will come as a genuine all-rounder and some pundits predict that his batting could overtake his bowling.

Championship Prediction: 5th

WORCESTERSHIRE

2011: Championship Division One - 7th, CB40 Group A - 7th, FL t20 North Group - 6th
Captain: Daryl Mitchell
Overseas Players: Michael Klinger, Philip Hughes, Saeed Ajmal (T20)
Players In: David Lucas (Northamptonshire)
Players Out: Chris Whelan, David Wheeldon (both released), Matt Mason (retired)

Worcestershire reversed most expectations and a dreadful first half to the 2011 season to survive in Division One last year. This year they will again start as relegation favourites, with an inexperienced team despite the presences of Vikram Solanki and Alan Richardson. Australian overseas players Michael Klinger and Philip Hughes, who did well in his previous stint in county cricket despite batting like Geoff Boycott’s grandmother for Australia in recent times, will be looked at to bolster the run-scoring as part of a batting line-up lacking star quality. The bowling attack is also thin, and will be reliant on the exceptional Richardson, though supporters will eagerly anticipate Saeed Ajmal’s appearances in Twenty20. Column inches have also been given over to Brett d’Oliveira, grandson of club great Basil, who has signed his first professional contract with Worcestershire. A troubled season is to be expected.

Key Man: Richardson. He has only blossomed late in his career but, at almost 37, will again be critical to any hopes Worcestershire have of staying up. An economy rate of less than three runs per over was last year combined with 73 wickets as part of a bowling attack in which he had little support. Loss of form or injury could well condemn his club to the drop.

Championship Prediction: 9th

I must say Shelsey, your predictions make a hell of a lot more sense than those in the Wisden Cricketer who if I remember correctly predicted Surrey to win the CC! Sorry Guildford, Corporal et al, but I can't see it happening!

I would make Notts favourites above Durham though, I can see Durham's batting be a little fragile and whilst there bowling attack remains strong a lot will rest on the shoulders of Benkenstein to score the runs and he is slowly getting on and he has to feel it at some point! And with the addition of Lumb and Taylor I think Notts have helped solve their weakness from last season so I would make them favourites. Although if Somerset get some momentum early season, and win plenty of games with Philander here, they could very well lead from the front all season.

Yes, I meant to say apologies to the large Surrey contingent on here - I don't think they're a bad side by any means but Div 1 is very competitive. I too was shocked to see both Mark Wagh and 'The Don' (an anonymous county player) tip Surrey to be champions in The Cricketer. I feel that they were quite lucky to be promoted - the result of only Middlesex really playing consistently good cricket in Div 2 last year and Surrey winning matches at the right time and Northants, Essex and Derby at the wrong time.

I might have been a bit optimistic about Sussex but I just feel that Panesar could come into play and they have a good batting team.

I would agree that Surrey's batting line up does not inspire confidence for a consistent challenge for the championship. I cannot honestly see Ramps showing more than the occasional reminder of his best. We are likely to struggle with our openers. Also Hamilton Brown and Le Roi are among batsmen who are liable to often give their wicket away cheaply. The seam/pace bowling could be good at times. If we come in at 5th or 6th we will be doing well. I would see Meaker as a key player. If he strikes form and fitness that's a big plus in the 4 day game.

Somerset really ought to finish higher than 4th in the championship given the resources at their disposal. I think Sussex might finish lower than third. Not sure who will win - maybe Notts or Somerset.

There does seem to be a pattern emerging in most of the sides that will challenging for the title, of we look at Durham, Notts, Surrey and even Sussex that they all probably have "better" bowling attacks than batting line ups, which is interesting. Somerset is probably the only side that really looks to have their strength in their batting. Don't know what that means, but it is interesting and does correlate with England having so many bowling resources but little batting cover.

JDizzle wrote:There does seem to be a pattern emerging in most of the sides that will challenging for the title, of we look at Durham, Notts, Surrey and even Sussex that they all probably have "better" bowling attacks than batting line ups, which is interesting. Somerset is probably the only side that really looks to have their strength in their batting. Don't know what that means, but it is interesting and does correlate with England having so many bowling resources but little batting cover.

There is also a pattern - particularly last year - of seamers that we might brand as 'average' (i.e. not international prospects) taking fistfuls of wickets. You can look at Richardson, Hogg, Murtagh, Linley, Will Gidman and even people like Andre Adams and Chapple who are past their best. Don't know what to read into that.

Part of the batting cover issue is that we seem to focus our youngsters on one-day cricket. Certainly it would seem that the likes of Bairstow, Buttler, Stokes, Maynard, Roy and Hales are all better suited to that form of the game than they are to FC cricket.

I would disagree with you that Sussex are stronger in bowling than batting though - they have a bit of a shortage of seamers which is why to do any better than mid-table they will need Monty to come into things big time, as Mushy used to for them.

The "average" seamers are helped by the use of the Tiflex ball in Division 2, which does aid medium pacers to pick up wickets more easily. Someone like David Masters is a prime example of this. If Linley repeats his heroics of last season in Division 1 I will be very surprised. Chapple and Adams have some past which shows that they came be successful, but Richardson and Hogg came straight out of the blue. It will be very interesting to see if they can perform again this year, and to see if the trend switches to favour another type of bowler this season.

You do have to wonder how much of an impact T20 has had on the way young players play these days. The players you mention above are very much the first breed of the T20 generation, who were just kids when it came into being in 2003 and will have been shaped by it. Players like Taylor and Root are still coming through, so we still have a few traditionalists coming through but the balance has shifted to the more aggressive young player.

Fair enough, I am not a big follower of County Cricket outside my three counties of Somerset (My team), Notts (Just because of James Taylor) and Durham, which is were I am at Uni, so I struggle to comment in much detail on other sides. However, it was my impression that Sussex relied very much on Goodwin in the four day game although I suppose that the loss of Kirtley who was by far their leading strike bowler had a huge impact on the seam bowling reserves.

A few of bits of news:

- Mitchell 'he bowls to the left, he bowls to the right' Johnson has joined Durham for the T20
- Chris Woakes is out for the first 6-8 weeks of the season with an injury
- Australian seamer Steve Magoffin has signed for Sussex and will join for the second Championship match

Unfortunately, I find your views on Worcs hard to disagree with. I cannot see Richardson being as successful as last year and unlike then, we won't have Ajmal to drag us over the finishing line.

I have a feeling that Hughes will have a good year though, maybe one of those players who is too good for County/First Class cricket but not good enough for tests.

Shelsey - other than the truly awful reference to Onions making 'a lot of opponents tearful this season', another very good article.

I'll retaliate by suggesting that the Great Alfonso might conjure up enough wickets to at last give Somerset a magical season. I think he's a very fine and often overlooked bowler. In conjunction with Philander in the opening weeks plus the fiery Kirby throughout the season, the Cider Men will have a dangerous attack in every sense. Add to that the guile of 'wise beyond his years' Dockrell and this just might be their CC year. Certainly no doubts about their batting line up.

Following up some comments between yourself and the Dockrell-like JDizzle, it's always going to be bowlers who win the Championship. Batsmen can set targets or save games but you won't win without taking 20 wickets each time. That's why I doubt Lancs' and Durham's chances in 2012. Too many of their seamers seem past or coming up to their 'best before' dates.

Warks are also going to miss Woakes heavily. If he misses 8 weeks, that's almost half the CC season due to the insanity of the fixture setters.

Would like to think that Surrey will be a hit in Division One but just can't see it. Agree that they have a useful squad but, like the Corporal, fear for the consistency of the young batsmen and fitness of Ramps.

JD - btw, the Tiflex ball is now consigned to history. Dukes only in both Divisions this season. I think the Tiflex did swing more and present problems for the batsmen although some of the demons were in the mind.

Somerset have done well with getting right of Murali Karthik. I just began to feel he was coming towards the twilight of his career last year and that his performances were beginning to wane. Backing Dockrell to be their number 1 spinner now could be an inspired call, as has also allowed to them to bring in the special Philander aswell. Not to say Murali won't do a fine job at Surrey, I just feel his performances in the 4 day game weren't quite as good as they could be last year although this might have been because he wasn't happy at Somerset anymore, but I feel he is a downgrade from Ojha last year for the Lions.

Agreed on Woakes. I may not be convinced he will make it on the international scene yet, but there is no denying his CC performances last year and he will be a huge loss for Warks.

And thank God for that. Hopefully we will see the cream of the bowling crop rise to surface in Division 2 this year.

Here's the V2Journal version of the preview
http://www.v2journal.com/county-championship-preview-2012-ndash-division-one.html

I'm gutted about the Woakes loss for Warwickshire, a real blow to our chances that is. Greatly upsets the balance of the side, whilst simultaneously removing our best bowler and a bloody good lower order batsman.

Dizzle

To be honest any siging would have been a downgrade on Ojha whose late cameo for us last season was nothing short of miraculous. Cannot remeber the exact figures but was something like 24 wickets in the last 4 CC games at an average of around 12.

We would have loved Ojha back but I believe he had international commitmants and Adams likes signing overseas players who are avaliable all year.

I'm hoping that if Batty can take a few wickets at the oval Kartik will be able to chip in a half decent return, he certainly cant do any worse than last years overseas attempt of Yasir Arafat.

Have great season its finally here!!!

Looking back at my predictions as I did for Div Two:

I got Durham badly wrong The bowlers proved at times to be over the hill rather than experienced (Harmy in particular), and the batsmen didn't deliver either. On the flip side I severely underestimated Warwicks.

The rest are OK - my punt on Sussex for 3rd wasn't far off, though Notts, having looked good for most of the season, might now struggle to get in the top 3.

At least I got the bottom three right (though slightly in the wrong order...)

Shelsey93 wrote: At least I got the bottom three right (though slightly in the wrong order...)

Shelsey - there is a crucial difference between 7th and 8th place But nonetheless, a good prediction, in particular about Lancs.

Interesting that Warks seemed unfancied by most posters here.

Shelsey and Corporal - at risk of pushing our luck, Surrey could actually end up in 6th place if this week's results go our way. Anyway, more than happy to settle for 7th after all that has gone before.

Some good predictions there, Shelsey.

Pleased to see I got things pretty much right about Durham and Lancs. Mind you, easier to give a quick comment than a predicted final placing!

I still underestimated Warks and over rated Somerset. I certainly didn't see Wright and Barker taking over 100 Championship wickets for the Bears. I did though think Thomas would do better for the Cidermen.

As Peter May said, the beauty of the game is that you never stop learning ....

Some really good predictions, Shelsey!

About 6 weeks ago or so, during the middle of the season I thought that Surrey would escape relagation not because they necessarily deserved to, but that Durham and Worcester were so poor.... what happened next... is that Durham won 4 matches on the trot!... so your pre-season predictions turned out vastly better than my mid-season ones!