OWGR - Week #13

Congratulations to Hunter Mahan for winning the Shell Houston Open, his 2nd win of the season! As a result, he jumps all the way to #4 in the world and highest ranked American, which is quite an achievement! Carl Pettersson, moves up to #68 following his runner up finish. Martin Kaymer, not unexpectedly, drops from #4 spot to #6 and if his performance at the Masters next week is not improving compared to previous years, his slide may continue further.

Congratulations to young Thorbjorn Olesen from Denmark, for his impressive first win on the main tour at the Sicilian Open. At only 22 he is quite a talent, no doubt, and his great achievement this week comes also with a bonus: he is steping into the elite top 100 golfers in the world (just)!

Well done also to (Dig)vijay Singh (sounds familiar, doesn't it?!) from India, who won the Panasonic Open (Asian Tour) in his own country, beating Siddikur and G. Bhullar in 2nd place. Dvj Singh should enjoy a huge leap of ~550 places, inside the top 400. And finally, congrats to the Englishman Seve Benson for his win in Kenya on the CT. bringing him up over 300 places somewhere in the 320's...

The OWGR table after week #13, going into the Masters week, should look like this:

1 Luke Donald
2 Rory McIlroy
3 Lee Westwood
4 Hunter Mahan
5 Steve Stricker
6 Martin Kaymer
7 Tiger Woods
8 Charl Schwartzel
9 Justin Rose
10 Webb Simpson
---------------------------
11 Jason Day
12 Dustin Johnson
13 Adam Scott
14 Phil Mickelson
15 Graeme McDowell
16 Bubba Watson
17 Bill Haas
18 Matt Kuchar
19 Keegan Bradley
20 Nick Watney
21 Sergio Garcia
22 Brandt Snedeker
23 K.J. Choi
24 Ian Poulter
25 Peter Hanson
26 Mark Wilson
27 Louis Oosthuizen
28 Bo Van Pelt
29 John Senden
30 Bae Sang-Moon
31 Jason Dufner
32 Thomas Bjorn
33 Alvaro Quiros
34 David Toms
35 Martin Laird
36 Simon Dyson
37 Robert Karlsson
38 Paul Casey
39 Aaron Baddeley
40 Anders Hansen
41 Rickie Fowler
42 Kim Kyung-Tae
43 Paul Lawrie
44 Zach Johnson
45 Fredrik Jacobson
46 Francesco Molinari
47 Kyle Stanley
48 Ben Crane
49 Geoff Ogilvy
50 Jim Furyk
------------------------------
51 Gonzalo Fdez-C.
52 Miguel Jimenez
53 Ryo Ishikawa
54 Retief Goosen
55 Y.E. Yang
56 Jonathan Byrd
57 Robert Rock
58 Ernie Els
59 Darren Clarke
60 Gary Woodland
-----------------------------
61 Johnson Wagner
62 Greg Chalmers
63 Matteo Manassero
64 Kevin Na
65 Nicolas Colsaerts
66 Rafael Cabrerra-Bello
67 Charles Howell III
68 Carl Pettersson
69 Robert Allenby
70 Ryan Moore
71 Robert Garrigus
72 George Coetzee
73 Spencer Levin
74 Jeff Overton
75 Chez Reavie
76 Michael Hoey
77 Joost Luiten
78 Sean O'Hair
79 Jacko Van Zyl
80 Vijay Singh
81 Alexander Noren
82 Rory Sabbatini
83 Toru Taniguchi
84 Pablo Larazabal
85 Hiroyuki Fujita
86 Thomas Aiken
87 Lucas Glover
88 Ryan Palmer
89 Branden Grace
90 Harrison Frazar
91 Edoardo Molinari
92 Michael Thompson
93 David Lynn
94 Jamie Donaldson
95 Bryce Molder
96 Padraig Harrington
97 Brian Davis
98 D.A. Points
99 Marcus Fraser
100 Thorbjorn Olesen
---------------------------
101 George McNeill
102 Gregory Havret
103 John Rollins
....

A feather in the cap for Mahan. Highest ranked American.

Stricker moves ahead of Kaymer? after a T36? That is surprising. Got to be really close between those two.

Seems this is Mahan's second "breakthrough"! Two wins a couple of years ago, nothing last year, and now two more good 'uns. Can he kick on, or is this it for a while?

Els must feel as if he's treading water, $132K but still can't move forward in the rankings.

Casey's downward spiral is picking up pace, but next week will turn things upside down again!

Always great to see these rankings pd, Thanks

Haven't checked out anyone else's record, but Lee Westwood has only had one finish worse than 30th since Qatar in 2011. Consistency!

Cheers, kwini.
And that was the rather odd MC at the Open last year, but I agree, he's been undoubtedly the most consistent top player over the past couple of years... Having said that, I would've liked to see him featuring a bit more proeminently in Houston... but hopefully that'll come this week.

Talking about Lee, a rather unusual feature about his owgr position is that he is now separated by a massive ~2 full points from those ahead and below him, which is quite unusual... But despite these big gaps, he can be reached by Tiger or Stricker this week (Lee needs to finish solo 8th or better to be safe at #3), and he could get to #1 with a win as well (unlikely though, as both Rory and Luke would need to have a pretty bad week for that to be possible)...

Does anyone know what data the bookies use in their models to determine the odds for players?

Is it just the OWGR data for each player combined with some adjustments for very recent form and past tournament form? I assume this gives them a base set of probabilities of the player actually winning which then have to be re jigged for marketing purposes?

If it is not the OWGR type of data then it would be interesting to see an alternate system for ranking the players especially if it is more statistically sound.

Apart from Woods and Stricker, as mentioned, no one can move higher than #4 with a win at Augusta this week...

Hope Kaymer will get back to that position on Monday... I wish he could break away from that dreadful 'tradition' of MCs and at least prove to himself and to all of us that all those changes he's been trying to put in place specifically for Augusta National and which have messed up his game over the past year, have been worth it in the end...

Mind you, talking about changes to suit the Auguista course... I didn't expect that would include also skipping the ball across the 16th pond ...

http://blogs.ajc.com/all-things-masters/2012/04/02/kaymer-with-hole-in-one-on-no-16/

Vijay Singh did the same a few years back. Pretty cool:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zg9GOMAB31Q

McLaren wrote:Does anyone know what data the bookies use in their models to determine the odds for players?

Is it just the OWGR data for each player combined with some adjustments for very recent form and past tournament form? I assume this gives them a base set of probabilities of the player actually winning which then have to be re jigged for marketing purposes?

If it is not the OWGR type of data then it would be interesting to see an alternate system for ranking the players especially if it is more statistically sound.

IMO, the bookies determine the odds based on maximizing profit. If they could get away with it, they would make every player 2/1. But they would not get much action and no profits.

There are going to be people who bet on Woods, no matter what the odds are and the bookies realize that when they make odds. And Rory is closing the gap fast.

IMO, the odds for Rory and Woods are far too short. Checking Ladbrokes, it looks like they have a lot of vigorish built into their odds, over 25%.

yep GBP , however there would be a base price, but that would be based on previous tournies odds, there is no set formula however to work this out, much more based on market trends(if one new golfer got exposure on tv and another new golfer didnt, however both were exactly the same quality- the one with exposure would be brought down!!)..As GBP says woods and rory are very bad value, you could argue that stricker and kaymers are half decent value(70/1ish) even though they are top ten. Many could argue that donalds and westys are quite good value as well 17/1 and 22/1.. these odds are the market value for them not a real chance of winning!! In reality i would give donald something like a 12/1 shot at this tourny- and i think he is a brilliant bet, however on the other hand pmick at 12/1, very bad value!!

The OWGR is always way down the list of priorities of anyone during the Masters week, and quite rightly so... But just to keep up with this thread's custom, here are some quick Masters OWGR projections...

- Rory would need to finish about 3.5 points ahead of Luek to get back to #1 (that means for example: Rors finish solo 5th and Luke solo 6th, or Rory finishing 10th and Luke in a 2-way tie for 13th, etc.)
- Lee is the only other player who could go to #1 with a win, IF Luke finishes outside top 10 and Rory outside top 7
- Woods or Stricker are the only ones who could reach #3 with wins; Lee needs to finish in the top 8 to be sure that none of those two could pass him
- Any of those currently placed between #5-23 (up to and incl. KJ) could move up as high as #4 with a win...

And to finish off, this is what a win this week could mean for three of the former top players fallen now almost out of sight in the rankings:

- Padraig could jump from #96 to as high as #24
- Stenson from #171 to as high as #37
- Cabrerra from #175 to as high as #26 !!!

Actually I'm fancying all of these three to do well this week...

PD, that just shows that Rory and Luke are in a virtual tie for the #1 spot. Rory is probably going to become #1 if he beats Luke this week unless Rory barely beats Luke and this finish well back of the pack.

Bubba Watson Tweeted this comment yesterday about the OWGR:

I finished 4th at Bay Hill lost 2 spots in World Rankings, didn't play last week in Houston moved up 2 spots. #ToGetToNumber1TakeAYearOff

GPB wrote:Bubba Watson Tweeted this comment yesterday about the OWGR:

I finished 4th at Bay Hill lost 2 spots in World Rankings, didn't play last week in Houston moved up 2 spots. #ToGetToNumber1TakeAYearOff

Bubba, bubba... It's hard to take, I know, but then designing a proper ranking system that Bubba could understand and be happy with all the time, that may be too big a challenge...
It's just called being very unlucky - the two guys right behind him in the rankings before Bay Hill were Tiger&GMac, who finished 1st and 2nd (which are both better than 4th as even Bubba should be aware of) and then last week being very lucky, as the people right in front of him (Kuchar@Haas) didn't play either and were not as lucky as him with the points amortisation... Consistancy at high level is what he should aim for and then his ranking will keep improving. Or he can just go and win the Masters this week and become #4... although even then he may complain that he is not going straight to #1.

Prince

I do wonder how well the players understand the rankings and Ernie Els seems more dumb assed about it than others. It was clear he needed to really think about his schedule from as far back as the fall series last year to get into the top 50 at the start of this year.

He may not be the brightest but should he not have an adviser to help him?

PD, Come on, he was being facetious!

the fact was that Bubba was in a virtual tie for the 16th spot last week

16. Kuchar 4.562
17. Haas 4.55
18. Bubba 4.54

And by virtue of losing a tournament in his divisor, his average actually increased without playing.

When players are separated by hundredths of point, they are in virtual ties and it only arithmetic that is separating them.

The owgr's giveth: to top guys who take a long time to start falling during a run of bad form.

and;

The owgr's taketh away: especially to those long-time top guys who continue to lose points at a furious pace even whilst stitching together some otherwise decent results.

Ernie has won more owgr points than the majority of the top sixty this year, but the pace of amortisation is only just now going to start easing up.

Clearly some tournaments over the past four months he'd've hoped to have done better in. Just one place better in each of them and he'd be in the top forty!

Anyway, he seems to be of a stouter resolution for his schedule ahead and I look forward to him playing well at Hilton Head. After all, he needs to stay in the top 60 for US Open exemption!

Mac, Els was a longtime member of Camp Chubby and I am convinced someone in ISM knows the rankings inside and out.

Camp Chubby likes to bundle to his stars into the same tournaments to bolster the Strength of Field of "Rank and File" tournaments.

Camp Chubby did it last week in Houston, next week in Malaysia, and last year in at the KLM Dutch Open and Thailand Open.

It takes a long time for the math to catch up to a player and it was sustained bad play from Els that got into this predicament. Players can sustain their position in the rankings with top 10's but they cannot make big moves without some Win, Place or Show.

Without going into too much detail, there are certain elements that would recommend a shorter term account for the ranking system rather than long term and then there are other aspects that would recommend quite the opposite, so in the end an optimum has to be found. When I got into this owgr stuff, the main reason I became interested was because I felt at that time, like many others, that 2-years is too long (main issue that made me feel that way was Tiger's hanging on to #1 still after almost a year of not playing at all following his Windermere car crash)... After spending now more than a year looking at this in some detail and trying in parallel in the background various alternative schemes, I have to say that I have been drawn back towards favoring the 2-year system, which all things being considered, it's not perfect of course, but it seems like a pretty optimal option right now. As for the maths behind all this, I think that although things can always be improved, it's ok and I admire the people who put it together in the first place, because they did a very good job in balancing two general aspects that are usually very hard to accommodate at the same time: solve a pretty complex problem with a system that remains, by enlarge, open and transparent and reasonably accessible to most people. As I said before, my feeling is that the more important problems with the system are related more with the general politics around the game: money/sponsorship/tv, geography, calendar, cultural backgrounds, etc., in other words... the world we live in!
Having said all that, things can always be improved, that's for sure, and the system as it is now is actually a pretty good base to work on...

After all that blah, blah... here are some numbers as you've been mentioning the points earned this year. This are the top 30 in that category as of now:

1 Rory McIlroy
2 Hunter Mahan
3 Tiger Woods
4 Justin Rose
5 Kyle Stanley
6 Johnson Wagner
7 Bill Haas
8 Phil Mickelson
9 Bubba Watson
10 Mark Wilson
11 Keegan Bradley
12 Lee Westwood
13 Luke Donald
14 Robert Rock
15 Brandt Snedeker
16 Paul Lawrie
17 Graeme McDowell
18 Peter Hanson
19 Steve Stricker
20 Branden Grace
21 Carl Pettersson
22 Louis Oosthuizen
23 Rafael Cabrerra-Bello
24 Ernie Els
25 Ben Crane
26 Bae Sang-Moon
27 Robert Garrigus
28 Charl Schwartzel
29 Martin Laird
30 John Huh
...
(edited: initially I posted by mistake the ranking based on a different criterium)

No Aussies.

And no Ryo!

I wanted to pick john Huh for the masters but then found out he is not even in.

As things stand after Rd1 the top 3 owgr would look like this:

1. Lee
2. Rory
3. Luke

A simple course stat confirms that yesterday was pretty tough out there (pin positions, course condition, etc.):

Course par stats over the past 4 years:

2009: 72.60 (overall)
2010: 73.19 (overall)
2011: 72.57 (overall)
2012: 73.37 (round #1)

Loooong way to go still...

it was tough- however watching westys round it was about the most simple 67 possible- and he did it in his stride, if any putts dropped it would have been v low.. all about ball striking the masters.. and [possibly why donald didnt quite manage to keep it going out there- course played long- not much run after driving- and if you hit the rough the course played ubber long

mysti,
On the other hand, Furyk was the only player to complete his round, playing with Lee and Vijay (good group!), without a bogey on his card.

It really was a good scoring group. Very good mix of chilled characters who arnt gonna rub each other up the wrong way!

sometimes winning tournies can be down to the pairings, and i think its perefct for lee

Some updated stats after Round #2:

Top 3 owgr:

1. McIlroy
2. Donald
3. Westwood

Moving up with a win...

- Dufner or Oosty as high as #8
- Couples as high as #38 (!)
- Garcia or Bubba as high as #4
- Jimenez as high as #19
- Paul Lawrie as high as #14, etc...

Course par:

- Round #1: 73.37
- Round #2: 74.43
- Round #1&2: 73.90

Toughest holes: 1, 11, 18,...
Easiest holes: 2, 13, 15,...

Meanwhile, Paul Casey's inexorable slide will continue - with it being touch and go whether the deadline for owgr top 60 comes in time for him to play the US Open. Will possibly miss The Players.
Difficult times for Paul who could well be seen next on the ET.

kwinigolfer wrote:Meanwhile, Paul Casey's inexorable slide will continue - with it being touch and go whether the deadline for owgr top 60 comes in time for him to play the US Open. Will possibly miss The Players.
Difficult times for Paul who could well be seen next on the ET.

Do the Top 60 get into the US Open??

Good luck to paul- guy looks super fit and tanned compared to the rest of the golfers- however needs tourny experience, and maybe needs to hit the range abit more rather than the slopes!!

mysti,
Casey's problem is that he's not fully exempt on the PGA Tour, so won't get in many of the tournaments. So he's not getting what Tiger calls his "reps".

John, Yes, they changed from top 50 to top 60 for this year.

pleased that the us open has done that!

Indeed, Paul is likely to drop outside the top 40 after the Masters and then can be out of top 50 after another 2-3 weeks if things don't pick up for him...

20 of the top 22 in the owgr's made the cut at Augusta.
The only absentees were Dustin Johnson, who was unable to play, and Jason Day, who withdrew injured on Friday.

Next "cut-off" to watch will be for The Players. Top 50 as of April 29th qualify.

With all the Americans anywhere close already being assured of a place in the field, that leaves some "overseas" players scrambling. Doubt if Miguel-Angel much cares, he's missed this party in the past "because it's not a Major", but players not qualified from 38th - 64th include:
38: Casey
40: Hansen
42: Kt Kim
43: Paul Lawrie
46: Fran Molinari
51: Gonzo
52: Mechanic
53: Ishikawa
57: Rock
63: Manassero

Obviously, Lawrie, Molinari and Jimenez could make a giant leap towards booking their respective places at TPC today, Hansen and Gonzo probably need something in the 50's to make much difference.

As it stands after Rd3, top 10 owgr has quite a different look between #5-10:

1 Luke Donald
2 Rory McIlroy
3 Lee Westwood
4 Hunter Mahan
5 Phil Mickelson
6 Steve Stricker
7 Martin Kaymer
8 Tiger Woods
9 Peter Hanson
10 Bubba Watson
...

As for the top 50 zone, this is the current provisional look:

...
40 Fredrik Jacobson
41 Francesco Molinari
42 Rickie Fowler
43 Anders Hansen
44 Paul Casey
45 Ben Crane
46 Kim Kyung-Tae
47 Zach Johnson
48 Geoff Ogilvy
49 Kyle Stanley
50 Jim Furyk
------------------------------------
51 Gonzalo Fdez-C.
52 Ryo Ishikawa
53 Jonathan Byrd
54 Retief Goosen
55 Miguel Jimenez
56 Y.E. Yang
57 Robert Rock
58 Ernie Els
59 Johnson Wagner
60 Gary Woodland
61 Kevin Na
62 Darren Clarke
63 Greg Chalmers
64 Matteo Manassero
65 Charles Howell III
66 Nicolas Colsaerts
67 Rafael Cabrerra-Bello
68 Carl Pettersson
69 Robert Allenby
70 Ryan Moore
71 Sean O'Hair
...