Leinster V Cardiff Blues Lansdowne rd

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Surprised there's no thread already. Leinster massive favourites at home. Cardiff Blues coming in under the radar.

Could there be an upset?

This time 6 years ago an unfancied Leinster travelled to the home of European Rugby. To a team that would have just won 3 in a row but for the famous Rob Howley try in 04. (They won in 03 and 05 and lost in the dying minutes of the 04 final)

Leinster played the most incredible game against them and took Toulouse out of it. (Sadly blew it on Black Sunday v Munster in the semi, and then lost the Celtic league to a late drop goal by David Humphries in Wales on the last day of the league)

Could Cardiff Blues pull a similar stroke? Will Jamie Roberts play? Is Sam Warburton really out? How fit is Gethin? Henson is defo out anyway.

Leinster have close to a full deck......... Worried about any knockout game, and worried about the low key buildup here and the fact that the Blues could put one big game together and give us a shock.

wales606 wrote:

LeinsterFan4life wrote:i for some reason truely believe cardiff are gonna pull out a great performance.im gonna be travellin down to the aviva on saturday slighty worried about this game.

Dont be

Yup, worry not

All this negativity is making me nervous.

but cardiff must be doin something right in europe otherwise they wouldnt be in the quater final

Hopefully a Leinster win but with all the troubles at the Blues, it could be a bit of a Buster Douglas Tyson occassion. I severley hope not though.

LeinsterFan4life wrote:but cardiff must be doin something right in europe otherwise they wouldnt be in the quater final

Losing to Edinburgh and scraping past LI at home, and beating a very poor Racing side

Finishing 2nd in a pool to Edinburgh despite being a top seed

Ye they really did qualify by default...

Racing showed absolutely nothing in the group stage, and LI are a poor side most of the time.
Edinburgh shouldve been blown away by the Blues, but got a foothold and beat us. That fact they beat LI and Racing says a lot too. Mind you I wasn't happy with LI's pathetic showing last game up, playing a weakened team who were not interested.

Blues have stuttered through and show no signs of challenging Leinster in any aspect. Another 40 pointyer is a safe bet, Jenkins has his head in France, Andrews Hobbs and Tyrell/Breeze are premiership players.

Tito Cook Downes are an OAP and 2 kids who 1 will partner Davies in the 2nd row.

Back row sees Warbs out, Navidi progressing well but not ready for this, and no other quality. Patterson is in good form for a clubman.

Rees seems to do little wrong, ever but has been overlooked more times than Frodo so has decided to throw in the towel and move.

Parks will shoite his pants and keep hidden.

No Roberts.

Laulala not happy with the way Henson got sacked, and wants away to munster, and Evans Hewitt will offer little resistance.

Cuthbert and 1/2p will be over run and looked to do too much by themselves, and James/ Cjecks will be at their very average best.

The on weakness Leinster have is their scrum, and maybe when they get turned around, yet they will dominate the blues scrum and Sexton Kearney will win the kicking duel.

Not even going to bother watching the game. I have just about had enough of the Blues set up, and look forward to RFC's match come saturday!

wales606 wrote:

LeinsterFan4life wrote:but cardiff must be doin something right in europe otherwise they wouldnt be in the quater final

Losing to Edinburgh and scraping past LI at home, and beating a very poor Racing side

Finishing 2nd in a pool to Edinburgh despite being a top seed

Not forgetting that London Irish were down to 14 men for a whopping 60mins yet they scored more points than Cardiff Blues during that time.
A very disappointing performance.

Is Blair back playing for yous? I used to love watching him play but havent seen him in ages.

He has recently returned, but he is not the same player. Still solid and tidy, does little wrong but he definately doesn't have the acceleration, all out pace anymore, which is sad but understandable.

He will always do the technical things well.

Dave

How did Irish score more points? Blues won! After the Shinglar sending off Blues were in control.

Will he play instead of James with 1/2p and Cuthbert on the wings?

thebluesmancometh wrote:

Dave

How did Irish score more points? Blues won! After the Shinglar sending off Blues were in control.

LI scored more points than us during the 60min period when they were down to 14 men.

Nah I doubt it. Although he's back I think he's pretty fragile, and he isn't the same player.

James isn't a great rugby player but he is an athlete, and big, strong and quick. Fitz, Kearney, and co will have too much for Blair, Cjecks is probably a better option at fb sadly.

Winding you up Dave. Theres a pretty big chip on your shoulder!

I am starting to know how you feel!

Golden wrote:Is Blair back playing for yous? I used to love watching him play but havent seen him in ages.

He might make the bench - Personally I would like to see him start, but Halfpenny prefers it at FB.

Blair is still a good FB, and still my favourite place kicker - Needs more gametime, but apparently he is leaving at the end of the season.

Leinster best odds 1/7
Cardiff Blues best odds 7/1

Being 7/1 in a hcup Q-final says it all.

Blues should be a top seeded team next year, I really hope Ulster get in that group,

Blues as top seed and Aironi as 4th seed would be lovely.

Kingshu

Ulster didn't fair well a little while ago, Blues were the much better team at the CAP despite a much stronger Ulster lineoup!

Ulster are a very good team but lack the fear factor. Theres not one aspect of their game that demolishes teams. Unlike Munster at the breakdown, Leinsters RDS factor, Tolouse backline etc etc.

Basically keep Pienaar quite, pressure the 9/10 and get parity up fron and youve got them on toast. Easy as that.

thebluesmancometh wrote:Kingshu

Ulster didn't fair well a little while ago, Blues were the much better team at the CAP despite a much stronger Ulster lineoup!

Ulster are a very good team but lack the fear factor. Theres not one aspect of their game that demolishes teams. Unlike Munster at the breakdown, Leinsters RDS factor, Tolouse backline etc etc.

Basically keep Pienaar quite, pressure the 9/10 and get parity up fron and youve got them on toast. Easy as that.

Not saying it would be easy but you would agree with me that out of the top seed teams in the h-cup, Blues are the weakest and the one every teir 2/3/4 seeded team wants to be in their group.

Tier 2 definately, tier 3 maybe, tier 4 I don't think so!

The one credit you have to give the Blues is that they are generally stronger than English opposition, Northamptons one season aside.

They also tend to be pretty consistant come group time, and when having their full internationals available consistantly qualify to the QF's.

Im personally raging that Warbs & Roberts are out. I love Leinster. Always want them to win well and with style. But missing seeing those two World Class players in opposition - really takes away from it for me as spectacle. I want Leinster to meet and beat the strongest team, any opposition can possibly put out. I just love rugby and I want to see players the calibre of those two - on the field. Win lose or draw.

These kind of games always used worry me in the pre-Cheika days, They were the ones we'd lose focus on and lose. Not any more. The mindset has changed and Blues will be paid the ulitimate compliment of facing the strongest Leinster side and bench possible - hopefully nearing full throttle.

Its a HC QF. Let no one get carried away here. All sorts of things can happen in an 80 min knockout game. A HC SF would more than save Blues season. That is some carrot. As is proving a lot of people wrong. If it is anywhere near close, with 15 mins to go, watch the nerves kick in.

Blues missing those two players - who would easily make our 1st XV, or any European side for that matter - really gives us an extra edge.

Leinster by 15. I just want a great, cohesive performance from us and some shexshy rugby from both teams, in front of 50,000 fans. We have to up it, to get ready for Sarries/ASM. IF we get through.

Flying home tomorrow for it. Yo!

Believe.

Leinster by 15???

As a blues fan I would take that...

Without Warburton and Roberts it should be a cake walk. It won't though. Leinster by 6.

Leinster will struggle if they perform like they did against Munster.

Not much enthusiasm from the Blues fans here, a bit of cloak and dagger stuff maybe?

This is a banana skin here for Leinster for sure.

thebluesmancometh wrote:Winding you up Dave. Theres a pretty big chip on your shoulder!

I am starting to know how you feel!

Not sure who has the biggest chip, but carry on with your multiple thread ranting.
I'm enjoying it immensely and it's made my day so far.

Cloak and dagger????

More like anorac and floppy dil.do!!

The blues have been anhialated by Leinster this season and although it was a weakened side with injuries and players leaving it is now a similar side to that.

Another 40 pointer is a possibility, the Leinster scrum is garbage, but the only one worse is the Blues! Rees, Jenkins, Thomas, Laulala (if they play) all have their eyes on new clubs, the youngstars have been thrown in blind and there is little quality in most key areas!

Dave

glad i'm finally giving back to you, normally it's your rants that humour me!

thebluesmancometh wrote:Cloak and dagger????

More like anorac and floppy dil.do!!

thebluesmancometh wrote:Cloak and dagger????

More like anorac and floppy dil.do!!

The blues have been anhialated by Leinster this season and although it was a weakened side with injuries and players leaving it is now a similar side to that.

Another 40 pointer is a possibility, the Leinster scrum is garbage, but the only one worse is the Blues! Rees, Jenkins, Thomas, Laulala (if they play) all have their eyes on new clubs, the youngstars have been thrown in blind and there is little quality in most key areas!

Unless you're basing that assesment purely on the Ospreys game 2 weeks ago then you're wrong. One LH prop does not a scrum make, but Gethin Jenkins is still class.

rodders

Maybe that was a bit graphic, I just had the impression of A tall man in a leinster shirt opposing a man in a Blues shirt.

The Leinster man is an accomplished swordsman, big strong and quick.

Cunning and slyness wasn't what I saw from the blues guy, it was a buck toothed mr Bean type dancing around doing fake karate hitting everything in the room with a big floppy weapon.

Mind you it just takes one slap to the temple from the dil.do for a complete fluke of a knockout so who knows?!

Mickado

Healy has been under pressure all season, Straus is a very good player but scrummager he is not! The engine room is there, but the front row are weak come scrum time, and have been for a few seasons.

Jenkins is still class, and a decent if not destructive scrummager, but with one eye in France, and the immense talents of Breeze/Tyrell, Andrew/Hobbs/Yapp alongside him, the irish are hardly quaking in their boots. Then you add a child or 90 yr old warhorse at lock, and no quality in the backrow the Blues scrum will go in any direction but forward!

thebluesmancometh wrote:the Leinster scrum is garbage!

It's actually one of the best in the tournament. Holds its own against the likes of Toulouse and Clermont. Is a weapon against the weaker teams. Ross at tighthead and Feek as scrum coach have made a huge difference in the last two years. Leinster wouldn't be two times champions without a top scrum.

thebluesmancometh wrote:Mickado

Healy has been under pressure all season, Straus is a very good player but scrummager he is not! The engine room is there, but the front row are weak come scrum time, and have been for a few seasons.

Jenkins is still class, and a decent if not destructive scrummager, but with one eye in France, and the immense talents of Breeze/Tyrell, Andrew/Hobbs/Yapp alongside him, the irish are hardly quaking in their boots. Then you add a child or 90 yr old warhorse at lock, and no quality in the backrow the Blues scrum will go in any direction but forward!

Erm is that last 3 seasons, when we won the HC twice? Dont agree at all. I think Healy, Ross & Strauss - backed up by Cronin & VDM, can match or better any front row in the NH. And have. Obviously.

thebluesmancometh wrote:Mickado

Healy has been under pressure all season, Straus is a very good player but scrummager he is not! The engine room is there, but the front row are weak come scrum time, and have been for a few seasons.

Jenkins is still class, and a decent if not destructive scrummager, but with one eye in France, and the immense talents of Breeze/Tyrell, Andrew/Hobbs/Yapp alongside him, the irish are hardly quaking in their boots. Then you add a child or 90 yr old warhorse at lock, and no quality in the backrow the Blues scrum will go in any direction but forward!

Other than against the Ospreys we haven't struggled once in the scrum all season. Parity against everyone at least. I don't know how any team with a weak front row can turn around the scrum advantage that Northampton had in the HC final. It would be pretty impossible. We aslo took on the Clermont, Saracens, Toulouse, Racing Metro and Leicester scrum with the same front fow and we managed.

It might not be our strongest component, but "garbabge" is way off the mark.

It is certainly not a top scrum!

Feek has done a great job at making it better to a point where it can hold it's own, and thats partly down to marketing Ross as the scrum geek.

Ross is a decent player and decent scrummager, but by creating the illusion he is top other teams neglect to attack him regularly. He does still get done over by those who care little about reputations though.

Healy has always struggled, and Cronin is a better scrummager than Straus but Leinsters scrum is not top!

This day and age very few scrums get dismantled due to techniques to avoid so, and Leinster have been very good at this, but there were a few times last season they were sat down, and recently the O's did the same.

Top scrum indeed!

Maybe Leinster can try the Munster fans trick and claim to be underdogs,

Cardiff are definate favourites, sure Cullen and BoD are only returning from injury, and errr emmm I can't think of anything really in Cardiff's favour.

What if Ross get's injured though? Leinster have a good scrum, but it's not something I've ever seen them be able to use as a weapon such as teams like Saracens and Saints can do.

thebluesmancometh wrote:It is certainly not a top scrum!

Feek has done a great job at making it better to a point where it can hold it's own, and thats partly down to marketing Ross as the scrum geek.

Ross is a decent player and decent scrummager, but by creating the illusion he is top other teams neglect to attack him regularly. He does still get done over by those who care little about reputations though.

Healy has always struggled, and Cronin is a better scrummager than Straus but Leinsters scrum is not top!

This day and age very few scrums get dismantled due to techniques to avoid so, and Leinster have been very good at this, but there were a few times last season they were sat down, and recently the O's did the same.

Top scrum indeed!

So you think the reason the Leinster scrum is good, is not because of Ross' own abilities, but because Leinster "trick" other teams into thinking he is a good scrummager? Seriously?

The last time i remember anyone getting an advantage in the scum apart from the ospreys match was against toulouse in 2010. Not including the Final last year cause we completely dominated them in the second half.

Healy, Strauss and Ross are a very good scrummaging front row, and with VDM, Cronin and White theres not too much of a drop in ability

Nathan White is as good a scrummager as Mike Ross. Possibly better, if Ross gets injured we’ve got back up. Healy has a VDM and Strauss has Cronin.

The idea that Ross appears to be a good scrummager only because he’s marketed that way is pretty weird.

Theres the key Golden, depth!

The northampton scrum demolished the Leinster scrum in the final, then ran out of steam, Mujati and Tong are no renowned for their stamina!

Rory

Have you ever heard of sport psychology? A predetermined action to convince someone or everyone that abilities of player A far exceed his actual abilities?

The media don't just take an interest in a tighthead for no reason. To plaster a tighthead on all media takes work, and to get a brand and label to that tighthead takes a lot of work. You didn't see anyone interviewing Adam Jones and nicknaming him when he started pushing saffas and kiwis off their own ball did you? So why did Ross get so much attention after a game v Connacht was it? PR!

The reason why the kiwi haka is so effective, the reason Botha and burger were the most feared players of a generation, the kiwi colours, and the French flair/inconsistancy???

People love to fall into boxes, generally if you tell someone they are something they beleive it, and when they beleive it they embrace it.

In reality Ross's abilities are on par with lets say Paul James. Decent at everything he does but not anything special!

So Cardiff have the better Scrum, and Leinster are slight underdogs.

Leinsters scrum is poor, but the only one worse than it is the Blues scrum. They will have no advantage there, and 1/7 to 7/1 certainly does not make Leinster underdogs!

The only thing the Blues have in their favour is that they have nothing to lose!

thebluesmancometh wrote:Theres the key Golden, depth!

The northampton scrum demolished the Leinster scrum in the final, then ran out of steam, Mujati and Tong are no renowned for their stamina!

Rory

Have you ever heard of sport psychology? A predetermined action to convince someone or everyone that abilities of player A far exceed his actual abilities?

The media don't just take an interest in a tighthead for no reason. To plaster a tighthead on all media takes work, and to get a brand and label to that tighthead takes a lot of work. You didn't see anyone interviewing Adam Jones and nicknaming him when he started pushing saffas and kiwis off their own ball did you? So why did Ross get so much attention after a game v Connacht was it? PR!

The reason why the kiwi haka is so effective, the reason Botha and burger were the most feared players of a generation, the kiwi colours, and the French flair/inconsistancy???

People love to fall into boxes, generally if you tell someone they are something they beleive it, and when they beleive it they embrace it.

In reality Ross's abilities are on par with lets say Paul James. Decent at everything he does but not anything special!

`


Actually Schmidt said at half time that feek just told the second rows (i think,memories not the best could have been one of the props and strauss) to bind tighter. They hardly ran out of steam exactly after half time because once they came out from the break Leinster were on top.

Dont understand what you mean about depth i just pointed out that we had two good scrummaging front rows.

In terms of scrummaging alone Ross is up there with the best its the rest of his game that falls short.

Interesting theory on Mike Ross. I actually think Bluesman has a point although I don't think Leinsters scrum is poor by any stretch.

Leinster have more than held their own against some of the best scrums around and even dominated a few.

I do have suspicions that Ross's scrummaging ability is overrated though.

I think because he's the only TH in Ireland who can keep a scrum up long enough to win our own ball hes been built up into some sort of scrummaging guru. In reality hes solid enough but has been badly exposed at times.

I should point out that I know feic all about scrummaging though .

The best? You'd put him up there with Jones, Franks etc??

You are kidding me!!!

And are you also saying that 2 proffesional players just forgot to bind in a scum in a HC final???

My point about depth is that you have it where a lot of teams don't. Behind Tong and Mujati who does Northampton have? And didn't one go off early in the 2nd half?

As I said I'm not saying Ross is a poor player, but he is decent TH at best. Not a destructive scrummager, and holds his own. Because Ireland have no other options he has had to be marketed into a top player, and has done a good job. Therefore he is seen as better than he actually is!

thebluesmancometh wrote:It is certainly not a top scrum!
Ross is a decent player and decent scrummager, but by creating the illusion he is top other teams neglect to attack him regularly.

That's the craziest conspiracy theory I've ever heard. Ross only looks good because they've tricked everyone into thinking he's great, therefore nobody ever tries to beat him, thinking it's impossible. That's how they've at least matched the best front rows in Europe? With illusions? That's laughable.

I have another outlandish theory as to why Ross seems really good at scrummaging. Because he is!!!

thebluesmancometh wrote:In reality Ross's abilities are on par with lets say Paul James. Decent at everything he does but not anything special!

I think that shows that you don't really know much about Ross. He is not decent at everything. He is next to useless in the loose. He's a specialist scrummager. He got into the team the season after Toulouse mangled our scrum in 2010. Ever since he came in our scrum has been one of the best in Europe. They've seen off Toulouse, Clermont, Leicester, Saracens, Racing Metro and they demolished the Northampton scrum in the 2nd half of the final after some technical adjustments at half time. They can at least get parity with the best scrums in Europe. Because they are one of the best scrums in Europe.

rugbydreamer wrote:What if Ross get's injured though? Leinster have a good scrum, but it's not something I've ever seen them be able to use as a weapon such as teams like Saracens and Saints can do.

Maybe you missed the games v Toulouse, ASM, Sarries, Saints(I was with you ) and Tigers games, last season Dreamer? VDM is a powerful scrummager also. This, is really an online V2 myth as far as I can see.

As for Leinster using technique to get us out of Dodge at the scrum... That's what its all about. Technique.

Must be just me?

Ever since he came in our scrum has been one of the best in Europe.

And my statement was laughable?????

He made fame after he demolished Connacht I think it was. Ireland had no TH worth his salt and Leinster were mullered by Tolouse, and many others that year! He was renowned as the scrum geek and branded for his ability, despite still getting exposed now and then this season and last! I may have been a bit crass with my wording garbage, and decent may not be the right words but he is by no means a tier 1 scrummager in Europe!!

Ross is a good scrummager, as is Paul James, but thats what theyre there for, they are decent around the park, but offer little. When pitted against the top in Europe Ross needs help, there are some absolute monsters when it comes to scrummaging and Ross is no where near that standard. He does a job for Leinster and Ireland.

The scrum is a unit. It takes 8 men to push, but that comes after the most important part, the hit. If you win the hit you drive through, if you lose the hit you bail. If the hit is equal you have the wrestle to see who gets on top.

Ross and Leinster are very good at picking and choosing when to compete, and there is a difference between going toe to toe with scrummaging teams and winning your own ball.

A destructive scrummaging team like O's look to dominate and push opposing teams off the ball, teams counter this by getting the ball out quickly and sacrificing the platform, or a possible strike move! Have you noticed how many times Heaslip, SOB or Ruddock picks up and goes? It's not because it's a usefull tactic it's necessity, they need to eliminate the contest and set a better platform from a ruck.

Teams generally fall under 2 catagories, destructive scrummagers and counter scrummagers. Leinster are very much a counter scrummaging team, along with the likes of Edinburgh, Glasgow, and recently the Scarlets. There is a 3rd catagory for the likes of the Dragons, Bluse and Connacht but I don't want to be rude!

Munster is its own unique 4th category. Its a mix of good scrummaging and apallingly rubbish.

Stag you make a very good point!

Munster I think this season should be smarter but theay are unable to. They seem to be all chest no brain sometimes and can't figure out when they are beat. Which can be good and bad.

They used to get on top of teams through sheer aggression, but thats been countered now and their technique can fall away at times. They still play the in your face game but it doesn't have the same effect without the characters. The scrum can be very good, but makes lots of mistakes!

Sorry blue but that is complete tosh! Ireland and Leinster got a bit of a lesson last month but that was due to losing Tight heads and replacing them with Looseheads (Ross for Court) and White then Hagen then McGrath- academy loosehead at that). We were caught out in those games but we have a quality scrum, make no mistake. Ppl think Ross is a good prop cos well he is a good prop, not amazing but a good international standard prop.