New talent vs wise old heads

I read an interesting article about the role of a selector to spot new talent and temper that with keeping players who are known to be calm under pressure: http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/opinion/6711020/Grant-Foxs-wise-words-still-ringing-in-my-ears

Justin Marshall was referring to Grant Fox who surprised him by saying that many of the young talent performing well for the NZ Super franchises are probably not going to be knocking on the test team changing shed just yet.

It´s true I often hear people say this guy is a phenomenon for this Premiership or Super side and has got to be in the test side. I heard the claim that Nick Easter was the best performing number 8 in the Premiership at the start of the year and yet he didn't make it to the test side. England seemed to want to bring in fresh blood. Sometimes this gamble pays off. Look at the young players Gatland has brought in for Wales. I must confess that I was reluctant to bring in Israel Dagg to the test side (fortunately he didn't play like he did against the Bulls last weekend) but that gamble seemed to pay off.

The problem is that often club or provincial form is not the best litmus test to find out if a player is good enough for test level. Test rugby is the ultimate pinnacle in the game. It is faster and more physical than club or provincial rugby and players have a fraction less time to react, which can prove to be the difference between making the right decisions and the wrong decisions for some. So often we hear the selectors say we reward form over experience. But often that is not the case as a coach is unwilling to sacrifice experience for a new potential talent. Gordon D'Arcy springs to mind for Ireland but there are many other examples.

Making the call to give your experienced players a rest and blood young talent whilst still winning games is a difficult balance. When experienced players retire, they often leave a huge void because they have played so much rugby that nobody has been thought of as equivalents. Although you never like to see a player get injured, sometimes players who play so much leave it difficult to replace when they leave (for whatever reason) because he´s the first player on the team sheet and he wins you games or makes too big an impact on the field to replace him.

So how has your team managed its new talent and mixed it in with the experienced players? What new talent can you see coming through in the near future for your team and will that come at the expense of a more experienced player?

For NZ, Thorn and Kaino leave big holes. They have replacements in Donnelley and Thomson but who will replace them? We need a halfback and cover for the backrow and flyhalf in particular. We also need to start thinking of life after McCaw and Carter and some other senior players like Mealamu.

It's an interesting thought mate.

It has worked for Wales but Gatland resisted bring those players in for a while. Some got in early, north, halfpenny, toby Faletau, Lloyd Williams, Jamie Roberts and made a success of it. Others like Priestland waited several seasons, when younger fly halves were selected ahead of him.

Others like jon Davies, dan Lydiate and sam warburton took a season to reach potential, despite showing glimpses of what they could be.

Now we have a backline where a guy capped four years ago as a 20 year old is now the most experienced backline player.

The key is for any Coach to know when to change a team,the All Blacks have always been pretty ruthless in this.McCaw is in a class of his own,on one leg he is better than most around.BUT there are a lot of promising 7`s in NZ now,10
is also not so much of a problem.Deans philosphy if your good enough your old enough worked for the Crusaders and OZ.SH there several good young 9`s around.Sadly old style tours where you could blood young players no longer exist.Slade sadly due to constant injuries I fear has missed the boat,Cruden is now heir apparent at 10.Todd probably best placed at 7,a lot of good loosies coming thru.Frightening to the Owen Franks is only about 24,if he could play loose head too ?

Well I am hoping that Heyneke Meyer will break the mould of PDV and be prepared to look at the youngsters that has come through the system over the past year or two.

Our front row comprising of Beast (26), Bismarck (28) and Jannie (30) is not the worst front row in test rugby and has changed the way SA front rows have performed in the past, whereby they aren't the best scrummagers around but as a combination they offer greater mobility, better defence and all round ball carrying ability.

Ther are however youngsters like Coenie Oosthuizen (23)who although a better scrummager than Beast, are a better ball carrier, was the top "fetcher" in the currie cup last year, and has much better general all round skills. there is Steven Kitshoff (20) who looks a decidedly deadly scrummager at such a young age, and his ball carrying ability is already quite impressive.

In the hooker position we have a number of backups in Craig Burden, Adriaan Strauss, Deon Fourie and Tiaan Liebenberg although not young still has at least 5-7 years left in most of them.

On tighthead we don’t have outstanding youngsters but Werner Kruger and young Frans Malherbe (21) who is a bit of a man mountain.

Our locks look promising with youngsters like Eben etzebeth (21), Juandre Kruger (26), Rynhardt Elstadt (22) there to back up Andries Bekker.

Back rowers are to many to mention, but this is the one area where we never lack depth.

Halfback there is Francois Hougaardt (34), Dewaldt duvenhage (24)
Flyhalf is a very exciting prospect with Patrick Lambie (21) and Johan Goosen (19)

Centres are Frans steyn (25), JP Pietersen who seems to have found a new favourite position(25), Johan Sadie (23), Robert ebersohn (23), Tim whitehead (24)

Wings we have Bjorn bassoon (25), Lwasi Mvovo (26), might be a little short on young talent here.

Fullback is looking good with Jaco Taute (21), Joe Pietersen (27)

Overall Meyer can pick a very young side if he is balsey enough, obviously it isn’t as simple as that, but if he earmarks these youngsters and exposes them during the next 4 years we will be able to build a very powerful team that will also be able to be very exciting.

Yes this is true Kia and reflects selections in the past. Everyone will rave on about player x and y but experience will always come first, but unless a M Jones, Lomu type comes onto the scene and is an obvious auto pick, tried and true will always come first- for instance- Weepu over Anscombe or Bartlett etc if it came to it, Ellis over Aaron Smith. Because although not world beaters in their position, they've been part of winning teams and know the standards expected, and more importantly, have generally played in winning tests.

The difference with the AB's and most other teams is the team selected is expected to win...ALWAYS. So new players not only need to prove they're better than the next guy, they need to hit the ground running

I'd expect them to be guarded and they won't do it in bulk- the odd player onto the bench and so on but the main thing about these players is there's a lot of banging going on at the door, and those incumbents can hear it loud and clear.

I'd expect Hansen to start with picking his very best AB xv available- and go from there. It would be foolish not to.

Taylorman in a sense I am hoping that the opposite will be the case for the Boks, at least this year. We need to break away from our old perceptions and having too many players of the old hierarchy in play will only resist the necessary change.

We'll have to se though, as Meyer was adament he wants to win every test.

I think it's difficult to settle on one or the other, Rhys Priestland got in for Wales in the world cup through injuries, and Gats selected him again. That's made me wonder if he would have selected Priestland again for the next match if his first choice was available? I wouldn't have liked to make that choice.

biltongbek wrote:Taylorman in a sense I am hoping that the opposite will be the case for the Boks, at least this year. We need to break away from our old perceptions and having too many players of the old hierarchy in play will only resist the necessary change.

We'll have to se though, as Meyer was adament he wants to win every test.

Your wish is actually our worry Biltong. Different matter here. Up to now we've been more or less playing what we think is our best.

We don't think you have been so Hougaard and Du Plessis- probably automatic starters in any team other than OZ AT 9- must happen as a start.

I agree with you Steyn will be picked but Meyer will have someone on the bench waiting for him to stuff up or lose form, so although you'll probably have all of your possible experience, change 2 and 9 immediately and fill the bench with a hungry group of vultures. That'll keep them all honest.

Clean slate is no good as you end up with the tour here and Oz during the 3N last year scenario. Its just all this should really have been done as early as 2010. Now that the Wcup is out of the way and Meyers % win/loss count starts shortly, theres a new environment for SA rugby and I reckon its now a damn bet they will make the most of it.

Stating the obvious NZ will stick with the winning team for as long as possible,BUT.At some point young blood needs to be fed in RWC is only 3 years away[loosely].3 Hookers,1Prop,1lock,1 openside,2 sh,1fh,probably the whole midfield all gone by then.Thats a HUGE hole to fill AND as you correctly state have to keep on winning.
Boks ,I know S15 isn`t always a guide BUT pick Stormers and Bulls first xv`s
then add one or too from the other franchises.
Bok supporters will only put up with so many losses,before they turn on the management.I will be surprised if the boks don`t win at least most of there home matches plus a couple away.

Dunno Alan, Piri, Nonu and particularly Ali Williams are players who havn't done themselves a lot of good lately and I wouldnt play any of them, Nonu the most likeliest to be back. Weepu's non committal to 9, 10 and dieting and the prospect of other players- will have him out this year.

Guarantee it.

Present team of AB's:

Dagg
Jayne
Smith
Nonu?
Gear/ Zac G
Carter
Ellis?
Read
McCaw
Thompson
Whitelock
????
Franks
Mealamu?/ Hore
Woodcock

probably mostly picks itself and only those with ? marks other than McCaw are not in form for one reason or another.

The rest are all starting to fire.

So the team above will form the nucleus agreed and it may take all year to get others in but those other AB's that should feature:

Boric
Ben Franks
Corey Flynn
Vito
Cruden
Kahui
SBW
Messam

And of the newbies- any of...
Aaron Smith
Savea
Fruean
Bartlett
Anscombe?
Ben Smith
Andre Taylor is starting to put his hand up (Reminds of Lyndsay Harris actually)...
will add a few more later...

I have ceetainly been impressed with Fruean, Ben Smith and Andre Taylor.

Is Ben smith not already an All Black?

Yes Ben smith has played test rugby as a wing if I remember.but i think taylorman is suggesting as a fullback.

taylorman
this kid taylor has staggering acceleration over 15-20metres,and the only time I saw Lyndsay run that fast was to the bar,when it was someone elses shout.

It's always an interesting conundrum - the experienced guys are the 'safe' option but don't always produce the best side.

England have been struggling with this issue for most of the last decade - clearly the 2001-03 side was outstanding, but it was starting to creak in places a bit even at the RWC. The problem was that our only experienced options to come in as replacements were the guys who had been the squad players, the likes of Moody, Worsley and Corry (just to name a back row). All good players but not a match for the guys they replaced. Yet the coaches and selectors kept coming back to the 2003 squad players right up to last year - while in some cases (Tommo), they may have remained the best option for their position, it did lead to a rather stagnant squad. Johnson did introduce some youngsters, but it has only really been this last 6Ns that Lancaster (with something of a free hand given the circumstances) has been able to really let the new players have their heads - some have worked out exceptionally (Morgan), others like Farrell show promise, while perhaps one or two will fall by the wayside (Botha, possibly Barritt over the next 18 months).

One thing though is to accept that when you bring in the talented youngsters, they will have some good performances and some not so good ones - look at the likes of Hogg, Cuthbert or Denton during the 6Ns: all had a couple of outstanding games and a couple of quiet ones. As such, results may not be so consistent for the first year or so if you are forced to make a number of changes at the same time, but in the medium term it is probably a better choice to bring in Morgan than keep picking Easter.

That is a good thing dummy half but sadly the pressure for results most coaches are under make that flexibility of blooding new players not as flexible as it should be. Tait or Cipriani spring to mind for me of players who were tried probably too soon or shifted around in position too much in search of a good performance and then flung on the unwanted pile unceremoniously.

I remember Jonah Lomu had a shocker in his debut against France. Sometimes perseverance is necessary. Kaino didn´t warm into things until his second season and then it became Jerry who.

Thats why I'll never forget m jones trial kia.
Played half a match for the possibles from memory and from that day sent kiwis spinning.

Never seen a half like it from a newbie. Remember going into work monday and all it was was Jones!

Everyone wanted more and more of this new guy and he just continued to deliver.

Some of these newbies look good. Bartlett for the canes has got better every game and has made several telling breaks.

Still think we're short of a genuine 7 for when mccaws out.

Lock isnt clear yet so the whole midde row plus loosie backups is thin. But from 8 thru 15 and even the front row we have very good depth now. At 9 just depends who puts their hands up. Smith, kerr barlow??

No matter which youngster you bring in...its important to bring them into a nice settled team....

Ideally you want a nice blend of experienced grizzled guys...and new enthusiastic youngsters....

GF
In an ideal world that would be fair enough, but England didn't do too badly this 6Ns with a team most deficient in the grizzled veterans department. Most matches our most capped player was Tom Croft, with something in the low 30s caps, and half the team had fewer than 10 caps each at the start of the tournament.

I think we were an exception though Dummy...and it was an essential move to introduce so many new players...as the current ones..Moody, Easter, Tindall, were stale and not as good as the youngsters...

On the weekend Blackadder took a gamble and went with Carter at inside centre and Taylor at flyhalf. It was a gamble that paid off handsomely as Taylor scored every single point for the Crusaders in their win against the previously unbeaten Stormers.

So you get the feeling that the backline shuffle will remain the same as last week. But what if Blackadder keeps Carter there tjhe whole season? How does that affect his AB chances? Nonu just can't seem to find a Super team in good form but he rarely has a bad game in black, at least at inside centre. Kahui and SBW are forming a good partnership with the Chiefs and Fruean is hardly a mug. Smith and Nonu no longer have a combination together. Does that hurt their chances? Cruden is playing well for the Chiefs and looks to be a good bet for the understudy role.

In the halfback I´d like to see a strong message to Cowan and Weepu sent out. i.e. You´re out! I'd much rather see TJ Perenara get a call up and go with a safe option in reserve like Andy Ellis, who doesn't exactly light up the stage but at least knows the environment. Of course if Weepu loses a few pounds and gets his act together he could still make it back.

At 6 I´d love to see Jarrad Hoeata called in with Thomson to cover in the backrow. With Kaino out we need an enforcer and Thomson doesn't fir that bill.

The problem from a All Black perception is they MUST win by the record they have THE best team BUT the most unforgiving fans anywhere.Problem is every
year Super Rugby form is the criteria,BUT in the BLACK shirt the players are not the same.NZ had a unique back formation 2-5/8`s and a centre,BUT since Aron Mauger .They have adopted the universal inner and outer centre,Nonu is out of form,ditto Weepu.SBW and Kahui are the form midfield ,BUT how can you leave out the best centre in world rugby Conrad Smith?.The admirable Crichton always in support in attack,NEVER misses a tackle in defence what more can you ask.The tight 5 is not a problem Woodcock,the Brothers grim,Crockett,Hore,Mealamu,Flynn Whitelock,Donnelly, Hoerta [at lock] Thomson, Read,McCaw[when match fit] Todd.
Cory jane ,Dagg,Conrad Smith,SBW,Kahui[possibly on the wing,Carter ,Crudon,
Guildford ,Gear.Dagg is a goal kicker get him practicing it,Carter maybe start from the bench till match fit.Scrum half Ellis deserves a shot,backed up by one of the young guns.Weepu needs to get match fit before getting another shot.
SBW is it worth persisyting with him? my thinking is IF he is first choice AB 12 he would commit otherwise forget it.
As to the Carter/Taylor thing thats back to the Carter /Mauger, Crusaders combo.Makes sense but cannot see taylor starting at 10 or 12 before Carter,Nonu,Kahui,or SBW.

I wold argue Jaque Fourie is the best center in world rugby.

biltongbek wrote:I wold argue Jaque Fourie is the best center in world rugby.

Really? Do you rate him better than D'Arcy?

eirebilly wrote:

biltongbek wrote:I wold argue Jaque Fourie is the best center in world rugby.

Really? Do you rate him better than D'Arcy?

Only just

Jacque Fourie is the most underrated centre in world rugby Biltong. But his team doesn't get the most out of him so he could also be the most under-utilised.

He and Smith are different players so I wouldn't like to make a comparison. All I know is that I wouldn't mind if either was in my team. It´s like picking the best number 6 in world rugby. A lot of talent there.

Nonu is out of form indeed Alan but so is his team and so was his Hurricanes team last year. You'd have to think that Hansen will keep the Carter, Nonu, Smith axis and Kahui and SBW will fightout the utility spot or Kahui might still be persisted with on the wing.

Hoeata is playing at lock but I don't see him breaking into the Abs in that position. I do see we´re missing a mongrel enforcer though with Kaino gone and neither Messam or Thomson fit that role.

Don`t like the term Enforcer,IF your an All Black you can take care of yourself or should be able to.Thomson is THE best 6 in NZ,and not a bad 8 his Lineout skills are great and he`s playing out of his skin.

Well Kaino and Collins fitted that description nicely I'm afraid Alan. I mean somebody who can dominate in the tackle and bring about turn over ball in the tackle. If you have someone doing the hard work in tight, you free up McCaw for a wider role. Thomson is playing great for the Highlanders and often ranges wide and is full of running but sadly he hasn't transferred that form to the black shirt and the blindside requires someone who is more involved in the thick of the action. Thomson seems to me a better version of Taine Randall who often liked to link up with the backs but often at the expense of helping out his forwards. That may be harsh on him as often he comes in to replace McCaw and not his favoured position at blindside and he has been injured a few times. He is more a pilferer of the ball than someone who can blunt an attack with physical power. I just don't see he gives the AB backrow the best balance.

Before injury Thomson was THE number 6 then Kaino took over,Thomson and McCaw played right and left as opposed to open and blind.Hoeta has yet to prove he can step up.Messam can`t for all his skills like Spies,Vito maybe the answer.But would`nt be surprised to see Todd start at 7 versus Ireland McCaw,not yet having played.Frankly i`d rather see players in a fixed position instead of all this utility stuff.As you point out Super form is NOT the same as Test form and expect if Fit Nonu/Smith in midfield.

Vito is another I agree like Messam who has been given enough chances and failed to deliver in black. I think though with Vito he has often been played at 6 instead of 8 but I think with his pace that 7 may well be the best position for him. I agree with playing players in their chosen position but Jarrad is a young lad and I think he has played in that position as well so it's not new territory. I fully agree it's a gamble and most probably like you say it'll be a South Island backrow of Todd (at least until McCaw is fully fit), Thomson and Read. But at least bring in the lad Hoeata and have him cover lock and give him a nudge at blindside with a few minutes on the clock if the game is not in doubt and see how he goes.

The one position I'd like to see new blood is halfback though. For too long we've been without a halfback who is able to snipe his way down the blind side and get that ball away quickly from the base of the scrum or ruck times. Weepu doesn't take his body weight seriously enough to be considered the incumbent AB halfback.

Ah Jaques Fourie is just a poor mans Tindall....

Yep, even earl rose is better than him.

brr whats happened to the old goose stepper????

If that kid had someone to literally knock some sense into him he may have made a half decent rugby player....

I don't know whats happened to him but I'm sure he'll be working in checkers before long.

He went for trails to one of the provinces and ended up playing vodacom cup for the EP Kings.

biltongbek wrote:Yep, even earl rose is better than him.

talented player that one...

GeordieFalcon wrote:

biltongbek wrote:Yep, even earl rose is better than him.

talented player that one...

I still think his mother and PDV, ....

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:Jacque Fourie is the most underrated centre in world rugby Biltong. But his team doesn't get the most out of him so he could also be the most under-utilised.

He and Smith are different players so I wouldn't like to make a comparison. All I know is that I wouldn't mind if either was in my team. It´s like picking the best number 6 in world rugby. A lot of talent there.

Was going to say something of the same. The primary role of the Centre is to 'distribute good ball to the wings'. There's not a lot of that going on in SA rugby so Fourie can't really be measured greatly in that area. Its a pity he spent the large part of his career under a game plan in which priority didn't involve sending the ball his way. As an AB centre he'd have thrived I agree.

I still reckon JDV will figure even though he's not even mentioned here. He's having a good run in SXV even though he's another that lacks vision. With Fourie gone they'll need an outside back leader to settle things down. Is he available?

JDV's out for a couple of months with torn hand ligaments Taylor

So we will have a new center partnership with Jaque Fourie withdrawing from springbok rugby as well.

Frans Steyn and JP Pietersen will be my choice.

I rate De Jongh. Different player to Fourie but very fast and could be a good link to the outside backs.

He is a wee bit light though Kia.

Yes de jonghs gone well sxv so far.
Agree with bb though. You need an experienced centre pairing if youre going to blood a new 10.
If Steyns there it doesnt matter whos out past him. Theyll get peanuts anyway.
Any real change in SA rugby will come from a new coach skip and 10.
So far they have one in three.

Yes I replied on your thread and that thought did occur if F Steyn is the likely starting option. But two wiry guys in the centres and think of the attacking threat. They´re not exactly lightweight on defence. But point taken.