Can Wiggins really win the Tour?

I think if he can get into the form he was in going into last year's Tour, this year could be his year.

Your thoughts?

Olly
Wiggins has already had his result for this year in winning Paris-Nice, a very prestigious week long stage race.

Wiggins winning the TdF is very unlikely - all the best major Tour riders aiming to peak for the race. Wiggins is as good a Time Trial rider as any of them, and can hold his own pretty well on long climbs where he can grind along at a steady speed. His relative weakness is on shorter and sharper climbs, when there will be more attacking (and where riders like Cadel Evans, Franck Schleck and Joaquin Rodriquez are markedly stronger). Sadly for him, this year's TdF route has relatively little time trialling, a couple of conventional mountain top finishes (where he could do OK) and a couple of finishes on shorter and steeper climbs where he is likely to struggle and lose time.

If he is in really good form (and avoids accidents and silly time losses in the first week), a spot on the podium might be possible, but I think winning is too much to ask.

You're probably right that it'll be a tough ask for Wiggins to win, but you're wrong about this year's route.

It's incredibly TT friendly - given that someone like J-Rod will probably lose a good 7-8 minutes at least over the nearly 100km of TTing to Wiggins and Evans, you can rule him out. Especially as he's always going to have a couple of bad stages in between too.

Cadel is the big favourite. Frank will be riding for Andy who will probably be second favourite. But he'll be forced to chase the game in the relatively few big mountain stages as he'll lose plenty in the TTs too.

Maybe even look to Menchov if he can get into good shape for July, which is possibly not likely given his recent form.

dummy_half wrote:Olly
Wiggins has already had his result for this year in winning Paris-Nice, a very prestigious week long stage race.

Wiggins winning the TdF is very unlikely - all the best major Tour riders aiming to peak for the race. Wiggins is as good a Time Trial rider as any of them, and can hold his own pretty well on long climbs where he can grind along at a steady speed. His relative weakness is on shorter and sharper climbs, when there will be more attacking (and where riders like Cadel Evans, Franck Schleck and Joaquin Rodriquez are markedly stronger). Sadly for him, this year's TdF route has relatively little time trialling, a couple of conventional mountain top finishes (where he could do OK) and a couple of finishes on shorter and steeper climbs where he is likely to struggle and lose time.

If he is in really good form (and avoids accidents and silly time losses in the first week), a spot on the podium might be possible, but I think winning is too much to ask.

Second result for Wiggins, he has won the Tour of Romandie

Wiggins certainly showing over the last year or so that he's very strong indeed in the week-long events (Dauphine last year, Paris-Nice and Romandie this year, though Romandie isn't nearly as prestigious as the other two). Of course, it must be said that Sky had a really strong team for this one (comparatively) so that helped though the manner of victory was impressive (recovering from mechanical problems in the TT). Also, as Valverde (among others knows) there's a huge difference between week-long races and Grand Tours. However, Wiggins also has a certain amount of pedigree in GTs (two top four finishes), while the year's route could have been written for him.

Certainly in with a chance if you consider his form this year...

Was a strange Romandie to be honest. No selective stages at all, and about 50 guys within a minute or so going into the TT.

Wiggins still hasn't been tested mountain wise alongside a main rival this year, but he does look in very good shape.

I think we'll have a better idea after this week at the Dauphine.

All the signs are good though. He had a fantastic Vuelta and carried his form through the winter to win at Paris-Nice and Romandie.

This years Tour does favour him and Evans over the climbers as it has more TT miles than normal. Evans has to be favourite but a podium place is very realistic for Wiggins.

well Wiggins certainly laid down a marker in today's long Dauphine TT (53 km). Not so much the fact that Evans was well beaten (1 min 40 secs +) as we're not quite sure where Evans's form is at right now, but beating Martin a TT specialist by over 30 secs shows that Wiggins is in great form. With this year's TdF being TT heavy he surely has a great chance!

The question is can he maintain it until and through the TDF?

Olly wrote:The question is can he maintain it until and through the TDF?

Yeah that's the question. He's been maintaining a very high level of form for some time now. Saying that, I'm fairly sure that Wiggins, Sutton and Brailsford know what they're doing.

The next few days in the mountains in the Dauphine will also answer a few questions.

So far so good.

Nothing to see today though, it was essentially a flat stage.

This Dauphine is disappointingly non-selective (besides the TT of course), tomorrow should be tougher but probably not enough for things to go crazy.

I laughed at Urlaub earlier in the year because he was insistent that every single parcours that was released seemed to be pretty tame, but it looks like he's been pretty much right.

djlovesyou wrote:Nothing to see today though, it was essentially a flat stage.

I haven't watched it yet but it had 3 climbs including the HC Grand Columbier. Didn't it?

http://www.steephill.tv/players/profile/?race=criterium-du-dauphine-libere&stage=5&year=2012&src=http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/CDD/2012/500/PROFIL.png

Too early in the stage to be a factor. The favourites essentially rolled up it.

Yeah fair point.

Tomorrow could be interesting though, if Evans and BMC are up for spicing things up.

With it being a finish down the side of a mountain, look for Nibali to go for it too, but certainly too far behind to be a factor.

I could watch Nibali descending all day long.

Well both Wiggins and Team Sky looked very strong today.

Evans just followed them up : attacked on the descent and took back a few seconds , but not enough to bother Sky...think Wiggins has this race barring accidents.

Le Tour is a different animal altogether of course , and I'd agree Evans remains favourite. But plenty to like about Wiggins and his team.

Andy Schleck has had a horrible week...

This one's all over. Nobody is strong enough to get away from the SKY train.

I would imagine a break will go away tommorrow and SKY will let it go and just control things. The last big hill is quite the distance from the finish so it shouldn't be too stressful.

I'm not too sure about the TDF. Wiggins looks like he's going to out TT Evans and that'll force Evans to actually take responsibility in the mountains besides attacking right near the top. As much as people say that Evans is an attacking rider, I'm not completely convinced.

so Wiggins duly wins the Dauphine for the second year running. Sky looked really strong throughout the race and in fact placed three of the top 4. We now turn our attention to the TdF, which could get interesting. Wiggins and Evans start as the two big favourites given the profile of the race, and certainly Wiggins is looking a stronger TTer over the last year or so than Evans, which means Evans will have to attack in the mountains. A lot may also depend on Sky's ressources. In the Dauphine they were riding only for Wigging, but in the TdF they'll also have to ride for Cavendish. Is it too much to ask?

Well Sky could have Froome and Rodgers who can work in the mountains for Wiggins well. Then you have Thomas, Eisel, Kennaugh for Cavendish.

I reckon they could go in with this (Is it 9 riders for the TDF?)

Wiggins
Cavendish
Froome
Rodgers
Eisel
Thomas
Porte
Flecha
Boassen Hagen

You could have Froome, Rodgers, Porte and even Boassen Hagen working for Wiggins and Eisel, Thomas, Flecha and Boassen Hagen again working for Cavendish

I think the Dauphine team is a pretty good clue as to what the SKY team will be for the TDF.

Perhaps that same team but drop Knees and add Bernie and Cav.

I would imagine Siutsov would have to be part of the team, he's a very reliable domestique for any terrain, same with Danny Pate - very versatile. I'm thinking Cav will have to do without anywhere near a full train.

Thinking again, I'm not actually convinced EBH will be in the team. Maybe Lovkvist if he goes well this week.

Team Sky are starting to look like the old US Postal, strong enough to set a hard tempo on multiple climbs making it very difficult for the more natural climbers to accelerate. It will be interesting to see how hard Sky work on the flat stages chasing breakaways for Cavendish, a week long stage race isn't the same as a Grand Tour and fatigue plays a massive part in the last week, which is where the mountain stages are.

I think most agree that this will be Wiggins best ever shot at Tour De France glory. He has as kind a parcours as he is ever going to get, he is in the form of his life, he has a very strong team, many of his perceived rivals seem to be out of form (though that may change in a months time), and there is no Contador to chase up the mountains.

The stars seem to be aligning for Bradley and I think he knows it as well, hopefully he hasn't peaked too early and gives as good as he's got. I don't know if he'll win it, I think Evans will cope better in the tough mountain stages and I've got a sneaking suspicion that Andy Schleck isn't as bad as is being made out, but I think a podium is definately doable.

Wiggins has been in very solid form throughout the season so far - is that now 3 or 4 week-long stage races he's won? (certainly Paris-Nice, Romandy and Dauphine, I think he won in the Algarve as well). There is of course a big jump between this sort of performance and a top class showing at the TdF, given that everyone will be aiming to get there in peak form

The other thing I would say is that most of these have been on courses that were virtually tailor-made for him - the big selection being the time trial, while there was enough climbing to remove rouleur-type riders from contention but not really to differentiate between the good climbers and the great climbers (Romandy in particular was a shockingly boring route, only livened up by the hard TT on the last day). Also, how hard were the other teams pushing in the Dauphine? Looking at the riders who came in with the lead group on the main mountain stage suggests that it wasn't being ridden absolutely flat out, but with guys like Evans just looking to build form.

A Wiggins Tour win? For me, he's really more a credible outsider - top 3 or so could be within his scope if he avoids a bad day in the mountains, but I don't think even now he has the explosiveness when climbing to combat the bigger stars.

Peter Sagan is a beast!

Andy Schleck is out! He apparently fractured a vertebrae during the Dauphine and will miss the TdF!

Schleck's out! This is on a plate for Wiggins, he won't get a better chance ever. No Contador & Schleck is actually quite disappointing for the Tour as a whole in my opinion and with the Olympics just round the corner it could be the least exciting battle for the GC for a while. I guess Evans willstill start favourite and hopefully Frank Schleck can finally show us what he's got instead of looking over his shoulder for his brother.

William Hill has Frank Schleck as a 40-1 outsider to win it. Surely that's a bit long? I only take a casual interest in cycling, but with the whole team riding for him and he has a bit of ability in the mountains should make him up there? Admittedly his TTing is pretty poor, but not that poor surely? But they do have Wiggins as favourite...

BBC are reporting fractured pelvis.

Schleck will probably lose around 5-6 minutes in the TTs to Wiggins and nearly as much to Evans.

It'll be a tough ask to gain that back in the 'mountains' particularly with UK Postal setting a killer pace on the front.

Froome and Porte are likely to be the defining factors in the race.

They won't do it, but Radioshack would probably be better off riding for Zubeldia. He's probably their best climber at the moment and he's in good shape - shame about his TT too though.

First time post on here so please bear with me! Personally I think Wiggins has peaked too early. I'd say I'm not alone in this but I've a bit of a theory that the winner of the Dauphiné won't win the Tour.

2004 Mayo - DNF Tour
2005 Landaluze - 100th in Tour
2006 Leipheimer - 13th in Tour
2007 Moreau - 37th in Tour
2008 Valverde - 9th in Tour
2009 Valverde - DNS Tour
2010 Brajkovic - 43rd in Tour

I think Wiggins will be there or there abouts for the first week or two, but I think he'll get dropped in the Pyrenees. Read somewhere that the average pro cyclist can only hold absolute peak form for about 3-4 weeks before it 'falls off the cliff' so to speak.

Unofrtunately I didn't get o watch much of the Dauphiné and I'm working off reports here, but it sounds like Evans was in good shape but not in top form. Reminded me a bit of Contador a few years ago in the Dauphiné; looked decent but there was just a bit more pain in his face and a bit of his kick lacking in the mountains...5 weeks later he won the Tour by 4'11'' from Andy Schleck.

Wouldn't be too concerned about anybody thinking Wiggins has been on good form for too long (i.e. from the spring), as Contador has previously raced well Paris-Nice, Pays-Basque and Volta ao Algarve and still went on to win the Tour come July. But as stated before, having seen Wiggin's performance in Dauphiné, I would be fairly certain that he has peaked too early.

What makes you think Wiggins was riding flat out?

All he did was dominate the TTs and then ride tempo behind Porte, Rogers and Froome on the mountains.

I would say the limited exposure to the big MTFs so far this year rather than peaking too early is the biggest worry.

Your stats about Dauphine winners doesn't really mean an awful lot. Valverde is a fantastic week long stage racer - he's often found wanting in the grand tours (particularly the TDF). Also, the Dauphine is often won by a motivated stage racer guy who is particularly strong in the time trial (due to the long TT compared to the length of the race). That's why guys like Leipheimer and Brajkovic could win (Brajkovic rode as a domestique in the 2010 tour). Although Armstrong won a couple of times, later on his career he rode conservatively during the TT.

Landaluze won because of a long breakaway and Moreau crashed and was ill in the 2007 tour.

It also has to be remembered that the big favourites back in the Armstrong era had not started their 'special preperation' for the tour yet, but other guys who perhaps did not have so great TDF ambitions would be 'specially preparing' for the Dauphine.

With 100km of TTing and UK Postal looking super strong, it'll take something special from Evans to beat Wiggins, but anything is possible.

Yea some very valid points made there. Again I never got the chance to watch much of the Dauphiné on TV but I got the impression he was riding very comfortably, as riders tend to do when in top shape.

Limited MTF exposure may hinder him but then again, has he really had that much less of exposure than previous Tour winners have had? Possibly a bit, but maybe not so much to be greatly significant.

Maybe wasn't a great idea using the Dauphiné/Tour stats! Although to use Brajkovic as an example; he is by no means an outstanding Grand Tour specialist, but the contrast between his form in the Dauphiné and his form even early in the Tour was very visible, even as a domestique. Just trying to illustrate how hard it is to maintain top form.

To be honest, I'm finding it very difficult to predict a winner for this year's Tour. Gut feeling says it won't be Wiggins, but not entirely convinced about Evans either. Although 100k of TT's does narrow it down a lot. Maybe for this reason Wiggins will win, if he can keep even reasonable form for the 3 weeks. It shall be interesting to say the least!!

Wiggo himself reckons he was at 96-97% for the Dauphine

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/cycling/18527994

Team Sky have announced the squad for the TDF

Bradley Wiggins, Mark Cavendish, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Bernhard Eisel, Chris Froome, Christian Knees, Richie Porte, Michael Rogers and Kanstantsin Siutsou.

Looks to me like Froom, Porte, Rogers and maybe Knees and Siutsou will work for Wiggins. And then EGH and Eisel as lead out men for Cav. Strong strong line up

Froome, Porte and Rogers (maybe EBH too) will do the majority of work for Wiggo in the mountains. Suspect Knees and Siutou will do the plain work (both on mountain stages and chasing down breakaways on the flat stages). Eisel and EBH as lead-out for Cav. Eisel to help Cav out through the mountains as usual

Will be interesting to see how Can goes this year. That team has very much been picked for Wiggo, with Eisel the only one who'll be working exclusively for Cav. Of course, with young sprinter Kittel's team being centred exclusively around him, Sky may not be the only team chasing breaks down on flat stages this year (as was the case with HTC the previous few years).

jg89 wrote:

Limited MTF exposure may hinder him but then again, has he really had that much less of exposure than previous Tour winners have had? Possibly a bit, but maybe not so much to be greatly significant.

I don't really mean that the lack of big mountain finishes so far will actually hinder him, rather than we haven't really seen him tested on one, so it's difficult to tell how he's going to react when it happens.

That said, this year's parcours is not exactly last year's Giro in difficulty, so it shouldn't be too much of an issue.

We must remember that Cav showed he doesn't neccessarily need a lead out man to win stages of the TDF, as shown when Renshaw got banned and when he won the Worlds. For me he will pick up 3-5 stage wins.

But I can understand Sky going all for Wiggo, this is a big opportunity, and one that may never come round again for another 10 years

Cav doesn't nexessarily need a leadout, but he does often need his team to do the bulk of the work in pulling back the breakaway.

But maybe Sky will leave the pure sprinter's teams to do all the work. They don't really need to catch breakaway's on the flat, unless it contains a overall contender. I think they will aim more at stage wins for Cav this year than the Green jersey tbh

djlovesyou wrote:

jg89 wrote:

Limited MTF exposure may hinder him but then again, has he really had that much less of exposure than previous Tour winners have had? Possibly a bit, but maybe not so much to be greatly significant.

I don't really mean that the lack of big mountain finishes so far will actually hinder him, rather than we haven't really seen him tested on one, so it's difficult to tell how he's going to react when it happens.

That said, this year's parcours is not exactly last year's Giro in difficulty, so it shouldn't be too much of an issue.

Sorry interpreted that one wrong! Yea it's not a particularly difficult parcours, but then again, I've heard that said before and the mountains have proved harder than imagined. I think it's as much the riders attacking and making the climbs hard, as it is the gradient of the climbs.

jg
Good point regarding the mountains - the toughness of the mountainous stages depends more on how aggressively they are raced than on the severity of the climbs per se. The TdF actually doen't have many brutally hard climbs by comparison with the Giro or Vuelta, mostly they are what the pros would consider moderately hard climbs but which can be made brutal by being ridden aggressively.

As for Sky and Cav, I don't think they will be putting any resources into the green jersey competition - Cav may well not finish the race (depending on how easily he is getting through the mountain stages), because the Olympic road race is only a week after the TdF finishes. So I can see him pushing for stage wins early on (although from recollection aren't a couple of the early stages around the Ardennes, which is particularly hilly), but then pulling out before the last week.

Cav won't pull out before the last week Dummy. He has the Champs-Elysees to win again

Olly
Cav's on record as saying the Olympic road race is THE target for this season, and the schedule is very tight between the end of the TdF and the Olympics (iirc, the tour finishes on Sunday, with the Olympic RR the following Saturday). I've seen it quoted before (by Robert Millar), that if you go well in the Tour you need 2 weeks recovery, and if badly 4 weeks, although you sometimes have amazing form afterwards (which is why several hour record attempts have been about 3 or 4 weeks after the Tour ends - great base fitness and adequate recovery).

OK, if Cav is feeling good (and/or if the green jersey is within striking distance) he will ride to the finish and try to keep the streak of winning in Paris going, but it is far from a given this time. He's too much of a professional to push hard in the Tour to achieve things he's done before if it is going to compromise his one big opportunity to win the Olympics in his home country.

dummy_half wrote:jg
Good point regarding the mountains - the toughness of the mountainous stages depends more on how aggressively they are raced than on the severity of the climbs per se. The TdF actually doen't have many brutally hard climbs by comparison with the Giro or Vuelta, mostly they are what the pros would consider moderately hard climbs but which can be made brutal by being ridden aggressively.

But when you've got Porte, Froome and Rogers riding hard tempo at the front, it'll make attacking close to impossible. The fact that the climbs are not that steep means that they're able to do this.

Wiggins wants a hard pace on the climbs, but he wants a steady pace.

It would be unlikely that the team could do a similar job on Monte Zoncalan or Angliru. That's why the lack of severity in the climbs is of benefit to Wiggins.

I agree with dummy_half. I think Cav will go to about stage 15 into Pau, the last flat stage before the Pyrenees, which would give him 2 weeks of hard racing and 2 weeks recovery.

We usually see Cav riding about half to 2 weeks of the Giro as preparation, enough to gain form, but not so much as to wear himself out. I think this year his intention was always to go for the points jersey in the Giro (hence racing to the end this year and narrowly missing out), then race a couple of weeks of the Tour, trying to pick up a few stage wins in the process, then go to the Olympics and go for gold.

Although the Olympics aren't the pinnacle of road cycling in the same way they are in many other sports, I think Cav realises that this is a huge opportunity. The Olympic Games in your home country is usually a once in a lifetime thing at the best of times, let alone when you're in middle of your career as a top class sprinter, and on a route that you are more than capable of winning on. I think he knows this is too good of an opportunity to mess up by wearing himself out by going for the green jersey and a win on the Champs-Élysées.

That said, it wouldn't be the first time I've been proven wrong if he did go all the way to Paris and win gold!!

I think he could base his decision on the situation at the time.

There are a number of 'Sagan stages' early on, and it could be that he's well out of the race for Green come the third week anyway.

Olly wrote:Cav won't pull out before the last week Dummy. He has the Champs-Elysees to win again

I agree with Olly, I think another win on the Champs-Elysees will extend a little bit of British history within the heart of France, and the sport of road cycling.

... but I suppose this might be his one and only opportunity to get an Olympic gold in road racing.

Depends which other sprinters are still in though. He's lost a lot of weight this year in order to get up Box Hill so many times.

Wouldn't be surprised if Kittel hands it to him a couple of times before halfway and he pulls out in the mountains. Gorilla is fast at the moment too and Sagan is a Jedi - so it could be a tough couple of weeks for Cav.

I suppose Team Sky's objectives must be to get Wiggins as close to winning the Tour de France as possible, and an Olympic Gold.