How Long Is Left in The Top 4

September this year will mark the 4th year since Murray made number 4 in the world and has had the luxury of being in the company of Roger, Rafa and Novak. Out of the top 4 yes obviously he is Slamless. However his short-falls at Slams have been compensated with successes in the Masters environment. The top 4 have more or less been the same faces for 4 years. Yes Soderling cracked the nut, but since poor form and ill health shortened his stay there. The last 8 Slams have been shared by Novak and Rafa and whilst some feel Roger is no longer the force at Slams, he has a tidy 16 in the bank and also remains a prominent feature towards the back end of Slams. Last year I think we witnessed the domination of the top 4 as they contested 14 out of the 16 Semi-final spots at the Slams. In the Masters events out of the 9 the top 4 shared the spoils. Out of 18 spots in the finals of Master events they contested 14.

Since 2009 to date the stats read:

In Masters they have occupied 50 out of 64 Final spots. Won 25 out of the 32 events.

In the Slams

Out of the 52 Slam Semi-Final spots they have occupied 34 spots. Won 12 out of the 13 Slams.

The question I ask is just how long left does top 4 of a collective have before loss of form or upcoming youngster crash the party?

Also are we likely to see a dominant group of players in an era like this ever again?

Good article

My feeling is that Berdych will overtake Murray by end of year. He's starting to finally mature and is now getting much more consistent...we know he always had the talent, but he didnt have the mental strength but I think the tide is starting to turn there and he played a very close match with Roger in Madrid to show that. I think Fed will hold onto top4 for now but next year will find it harder to stay there - so by default someone like Tsonga or Delpo may start to go deeper more often than Roger - but more than Murray....hmmm, 50/50 on that.
The big unknown is Raonic for me...if we see him making significant gains this year he may finish in top10...then push to top4 next year...i.e. above Delpo/Murray/Tsonga. So I think this time next year we'll have a different top 4...with maybe 2 new entrants, but I think at least 1. Post-USO 2013 I think we may have 2 new entrants - and I think Fed for all his desire will struggle to consistently compete at the top in 18 mths time...I hope he can get a Sampras like moment and finish on a high rather than fade away.

I would taking the logical approach and age factor with Roger that his place in the top 4 next year may be a struggle for him. Andy yes given that he is Slamless, but also he has become an easy target at BO3 format as shown by Raonic and Berdych, but has a luxury that Roger doesn't and that is time to maybe incorporate an attacking arsenal into his game. Rafa and Novak look like a permanent feature in the top 4 for next few years.

I tend to avoid 'era' talk as much as possible, but I believe that it could indeed be quite some time before we again see such a dominant four at the top of the game (and for so long) - if indeed ever.

As for "how long is left" in them :

Well in the case of Mr. Federer the answer is pretty straightforward in my book: not very long at all, and I've said more than once on the forum that I don't see him playing much beyond 2013, despite any pronouncements - including his own ! - to the contrary. Anything he might achieve between now & retirement is mere icing on the biggest of cakes.

If Novak and Rafa can remain fit then they have another three or four years left in them at the top. As for the precise positions, who knows .... Although I take Rafa to regain top spot at some point over the next couple of years.

On Murray I'm less certain. If he were to manage to get that elusive Slam then the confidence boost would take his game & motivation to another level, and he too could stay right up there for a good few years. But if not he might be overtaken.

As for the 'youngsters crashing the party' ..... well personally I wish it would happen for the good of the game. Because as good as the current top four are, and as fortunate as we are to have them around all at the same time, we need fresh blood to challenge & test them. And yet it not's really happening.

And therein lies the issue. Not only have these four been totally dominating the Slams & Masters, as lk illustrates, but the only significant and consistent challenge has come from within the elite group itself. The best example of this is right here at Roland Garros. Rafa has been King here as we know ; but, apart from the Soderling interruption, who has been the only other player waiting for Rafa when he inevitably arrives at the Final ? : well, step forward Federer of course.

One of the commentators remarked on just how well Ungur played yesterday against Fed and when the match was wrapped up said we'll surely be seeing a lot more of him in the years ahead . BUT will we ...??? The guy has probably never played better in his life than he did yesterday against Fed. But he's already 27 and I doubt he's about to make any sort of big breakthrough. And this is what seems to be happening - the big guns are occasionally made to work a bit harder by someone in the lower ranks but they very, very rarely suffer a prolonged loss of form, and the outsiders don't seem to break through. (At least Ungur joins the list of unheralded players who can tell their grandchildren that they once took a set off Roger Federer )

So my own conclusion is this : that yes, the big four will eventually go their separate ways, in the same way that The Fab Four did. All good things come to an end - eventually. But quite what the quality of their replacements might be is altogether another matter.

Murray will never win a slam. He will soon be out of the top 4.

Wonderful contribution to the thread from jersey

It was the most insightful post of the day.

I just keep praying we get some good young players to bring some surprises to the sport. It really is terribly predictable right now.

We know the top4 has been so dominant due to surface convergence...its so much easier for a top player to dominate than ever before in my opinion as they're not having to adapt as much as before. The break down of the current top4 will rely on another consistent player coming along...so how is the next ultra reliable player? For me its Berdy (Tsonga still variable in my book) or Raonic if he continues his ascent and stays injury free. He got through Levine well enough today...Nadal is not going to like facing him at all...wont give Rafa any rhythm and if his big shots are firing off then it could be a very tough match indeed. But you feel Raonic would have to win in 3, max 4. sets. Otherwise agree with BB...we need other new blood too and it seems guys like Tomic and Dimitrov are perhaps not making the leaps we might expect...yet.

I've always thought Murray struggles to keep up with the top 3 rather than being narrowly on the periphery of greatness and slam glory.

He really needs to pull out of the French Open with his injury, he won't win it and if he carries on without giving himself needed rest he can wave goodbye to Wimbledon and US Open glory too!

lydian wrote:We know the top4 has been so dominant due to surface convergence...its so much easier for a top player to dominate than ever before in my opinion as they're not having to adapt as much as before. The break down of the current top4 will rely on another consistent player coming along...so how is the next ultra reliable player? For me its Berdy (Tsonga still variable in my book) or Raonic if he continues his ascent and stays injury free. He got through Levine well enough today...Nadal is not going to like facing him at all...wont give Rafa any rhythm and if his big shots are firing off then it could be a very tough match indeed. But you feel Raonic would have to win in 3, max 4. sets. Otherwise agree with BB...we need other new blood too and it seems guys like Tomic and Dimitrov are perhaps not making the leaps we might expect...yet.

Yes, it's not just the top 4 that is a bit boring, it's the top 8. Berdych, Ferrer, Tsonga et al seem to have been around forever on the periphery, neither going forward nor falling back.

It's like the whole sport is locked in a time warp, playing the same season over and over. Sort of like a Sapphire & Steel story set in the ATP.

i wouldn't be surprised if monaco upset raonic 2bh i hope he doesn't because i really wanna see this match but don't be too surprised if he beats him.

Yep BB...Groundhog day...the tour literally has become a grind. I like clay and always have but we need to see non-clay play elsewhere otherwise its becoming a Formula1-like procession each event.

i think the comparison to formula one procession would have been better suited to last year. this year everyone is winning races!

except Lewis

Don't see Berdych passing Murray if Murray's fitness is 100% within a few months. Murray is the better player. But we'll see.