Djokovic v Federer

We may as well get this started, it's going to be talked about a lot anyway.

Neither man looks convincing and they're probably playing for the honour of getting beat up by Nadal, but it's an important match anyway.

Djokovic squeaked past Tsonga through a combination of great guts and the reliability of his retrieval game to outlast Tsonga, and past Seppi because Seppi didn't believe in himself.

Federer got past Del Potro through a combination of habitually winning and Del Potro wilting.

My bet is strongly with Djokovic; the slowish conditions will make it ultra difficult to hit through, and Djokovic can play endlessly. Federer will have to attack hard, which probably means errors.

If Fed starts great he could take one of the first two sets, but I doubt it changes the result. Federer needs to play low error attacking play, but tough over 5 sets at his age against peak super-fit Djokovic.

In full agreement here BB, I reckon Djokovic will win this.

Naturally I want Fed to win even if he loses to Nadal, if only for the sake of the points he banks which keeps him contention for No.1 but looks like the nay sayers who said Fed was most likely to have an early exit were wrong (not for the first time). Now Fed only needs a semis @ Wimbledon should he lose in the semis here and he will have held onto a majority of the points he was defending.

Djokovic will feel he can beat anyone after saving 4 match points. Although Fed was 2 sets down, he didn't face any match points but his victory over Delpo will no doubt be helpful for his confidence, but not enough for him to beat Djoko you feel?

Djoko to win in 4 or 5 sets. Maybe str8 sets if Fed comes out and plays badly from the word go. The crowd might help though, we know they'll be behind Fed big time.

Very much agree both players have had somewhat average tournaments.

I was surprised Federer didn't hit flat to begin with which would've made the pick up on Delpo's hitting more strenuous on his knee.

At this point I think picking a winner is difficult given that both players haven't produced performances that jump out at you.

More the frustrating that Murray has neither of them in his draw

Yep hard to see beyond Novak BB...he needs a very quick start, ultra aggressive, etc...JWT showed Novak was vulnerable to that. The problem for Fed now is that JWT may now have just played Djokovic into form though! Is the SF Thurs or Fri they play? Guess must be Friday... Thurs had a warmer forecast against it...23/24c I think. A lot depends on whether the court is damp from drizzle or not on the day.

Djokovic in 4.

The mens semi's is on Friday I believe.

Rain is forecast.

Djokovic in 3 or 4.

Fed can't hit through him in these conditions.

Djoko has shown he can look vulnerable at times...

Fed can win this if he plays well. Both player poorly today though, guess that doesn't leave us in a great position to guess who will win.

Even though Federer hasn't been vintage I'm quite pleased with what he's achieved in this tournament.

I think normal/slow clay conditions are gonna get tougher and tougher for Fed for the remainder of his career.

I'm just pleased that he's managed to tough out so many matches. He looks stronger mentally this year. That could be the difference at W (possibly) or the USO (his best chance).

Murray v Ferrer should be an interesting QF. Everything else will be probably predictably go to form.

Think there can be little doubt that Fed has made progress over the last 9 months: matches which were close or seemed lost have been salvaged. He isn't losing to journey men and stronger contenders like Berdych, Tsonga, Melzer, Gasquet and Delpo.

So while that gives hope he could snatch victory from Djoko, it will take a superb performance like last year here for him to win. It could happen, but I am rather doubtful.

Emancipator I agree that Fed is mentally stronger this year, I think he's got to a point where he's happy with his lot and anything else he achieves now is a bonus so it puts less pressure on him to have to win.
Rain hey? Hmmm, that spells trouble for Fed...wasn't last year much hotter/drier when they played that SF, and those Babolat balls too. Novak will just run him left and right until Roger sprays a ground stroke long.

Yeah, Djokovic will just turn into a wall.

Unless Novak starts making loads of errors it's gonna be a huge ask for Fed to win this one.

My bet is strongly with Djokovic; the slowish conditions will make it ultra difficult to hit through, and Djokovic can play endlessly. Federer will have to attack hard, which probably means errors.

If Fed starts great he could take one of the first two sets, but I doubt it changes the result. Federer needs to play low error attacking play, but tough over 5 sets at his age against peak super-fit Djokovic.
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Agree with this. I have a ticket for this and really hope for one of the calibre of matches they produced in 2011, especially the great US and French matches, and this could well happen again, but there is also a clear risk of poor Federer = damp squib match.

they're probably playing for the honour of getting beat up by Nadal,
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A bit harsh? If Ivanisevic can win Wimbledon as a wilcard and Soderling beat Nadal, anything can happen, certainly Djokovic beating Nadal and who knows even Federer beating Nadal or Murray beating Nadal has a small chance. So you never know. If you'd said "probably...losing" I'd have left this comment alone as a correct one, ubt "probably...getting beat up" is over the chance as if they won't even push him to a tough match.

Henman Bill wrote:My bet is strongly with Djokovic; the slowish conditions will make it ultra difficult to hit through, and Djokovic can play endlessly. Federer will have to attack hard, which probably means errors.

If Fed starts great he could take one of the first two sets, but I doubt it changes the result. Federer needs to play low error attacking play, but tough over 5 sets at his age against peak super-fit Djokovic.
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Agree with this. I have a ticket for this and really hope for one of the calibre of matches they produced in 2011, especially the great US and French matches, and this could well happen again, but there is also a clear risk of poor Federer = damp squib match.

If Fed starts off poorly, there's a big risk it will turn into a damp squib. If it stays close and tight, it could turn into a real fight like last year. We won't really know until they play. I mean it could either be a re-run of Rome this year or RG last year, the question is which one? It is the BO5 so it gives a chance of being an epic. I think nearly everyone is in agreement that Djokovic is likely win though.

Well everyone said that last year.

True, although slower conditions and the different balls makes it rather harder for Fed.

Djokovic was playing far far better last year uptil this point compared to this year.

However he now has a chance to raise his game when it counts, let's see what will happen.

Novak saved 4 match points to win his QF, thats a super human effort, to beat a super human effort one has to produce a miracle, Fed's A-game is a miracle but can he spring it?

Possible Scenarios

1]Fed bring his A-game, Djoko bring his A-game - Fed in 4 sets
2]Fed brings his A-game Djoko brings his B-game - Fed in st.sets
3]Fed Brings his B-game or less Djoko bring his B-game or less - Djoko in 4 sets
4]Djoko Bring his A-game and Fed brings his B-game or less - Djoko in st.sets

Conclusion - Djoko should fancy his chances in 4 tough sets, but I am sticking with my originals, Fed to win in 4 like last year and lift the cup.

Novak saved 4 match points to win his QF, thats a super human effort, to beat a super human effort one has to produce a miracle, Fed's A-game is a miracle but can he spring it?

Possible Scenarios

1]Fed bring his A-game, Djoko bring his A-game - Fed in 4 sets
2]Fed brings his A-game Djoko brings his B-game - Fed in st.sets
3]Fed Brings his B-game or less Djoko bring his B-game or less - Djoko in 4 sets
4]Djoko Bring his A-game and Fed brings his B-game or less - Djoko in st.sets

Conclusion - Djoko should fancy his chances in 4 tough sets, but I am sticking with my originals, Fed to win in 4 like last year and lift the cup.

Good article BB and I tend to agree. Let's be honest whoever wins, merely gets the 'honour' of getting a pasting by Nadal

Fed for me has suddenly looked more his age the last couple of months. Maybe it's simply because, now he is in his 30's fast condtions and short points are the only ones he'll thrive in

Yeah. Funny thing is though that since the USO he's lost, what, three matches on tour? Weird.

Federer now ties the record for most GS semi.

Code:


Player          AO  RG  WM  US  Total
Jimmy Connors    2    4    11  14  31
Roger Federer    9    7    7    8    31
Ivan Lendl      7    5    7    9    28
Andre Agassi    6    5    5    10  26
Pete Sampras    5    1    8    9    23
Stefan Edberg    8    1    6    4    19
John McEnroe    1    2    8    8    19
Rafael Nadal    3    6    5    4    18
Boris Becker    2    3    9    4    18
Bjorn Borg      0    6    6    5    17
Novak Djokovic  3    4    3    5    15
Mats Wilander    5    6    0    3    14


Super find mangamuri. That record will be surpassed in W

If he wins the FO, he will tie with Guillermo Vilas at 56 wins at FO.

Welcome to 606v2, Mangamuri. Jimbo at 14 USO SFs, is outrageous and one as 39 yo (losing to Courier in 1991).

Weather big factor here, above poster says rain is forecast, not good for Federer.

He needs dry, fast clay to have a better chance of hitting through Djokovic.

If the clay is damp, heavy, it's going to be a better surface for Djokovic, and harder for Federer to hit through him.

"Effort used factor" - Djokovic has had two consecutive 5th sets, today's, no doubt used alot of energy, emotionally as well as physically. Federer's 5 sets, not nearly as taxing, either with games played, or "near to losing" energy/emotions. Think Djokovic has been more taxed the last two rounds.

"Age factor" - ties in with above because at 30 1/2, Federer's recovery is longer than Djokovic's, but he has less to "recover from," as far as I see; so these may balance out a little.

My call - Djokovic in 4 sets.

Given Novak won't play again until Friday not sure the 'effort used factor' will play that big a role. Same for Fed's recovery period.

They should both be relatively fresh on Friday for what will hopefully be another great match. I'm going for 4 set win by Novak...I don't see the match going to 5 sets either way.

laverfan wrote:Welcome to 606v2, Mangamuri. Jimbo at 14 USO SFs, is outrageous and one as 39 yo (losing to Courier in 1991).

Thanks laverfan. I joined the forum a year back but never posted before. But always enjoyed the topics including certain fognini thread

Tough one to call this but I just favour Djokovic. The court condition I feel suits Novak more and in recent times has had the edge over Roger Federer. It will be close though I feel.

I think nearly everyone, including nearly all the Fed fans I know on here agree that Djokovic is the favourite and is the likely winner on Friday.

That doesn't change the fact I'll still be massively behind Fed. However, the chances for either Djokovic or Fed winning RG still isn't high. I'd much prefer Fed gets to the semis @ Wimbledon where I think many think he stands a better chance on the faster surface there. Even more so in the case of the USO.

Thankfully by getting to the semis, he's kept his hopes alive of taking the No.1 spot @ some point in the next 4 months so for me, he's achieved his main aim out of RG, winning it wasn't something I thought was particularly likely!

Djokovic won't have forgotten last year. Fed all the way.

Djokovic in 3 or 4 sets.

mangamuri wrote:Federer now ties the record for most GS semi.

Code:


Player AO RG WM US Total
Jimmy Connors 2 4 11 14 31
Roger Federer 9 7 7 8 31
Ivan Lendl 7 5 7 9 28
Andre Agassi 6 5 5 10 26
Pete Sampras 5 1 8 9 23
Stefan Edberg 8 1 6 4 19
John McEnroe 1 2 8 8 19
Rafael Nadal 3 6 5 4 18
Boris Becker 2 3 9 4 18
Bjorn Borg 0 6 6 5 17
Novak Djokovic 3 4 3 5 15
Mats Wilander 5 6 0 3 14


I like where my man Djokovic is right now he could very well get right up to the top of this list. Nice post.



On the subject of the Djoko v. Fed match I have a feeling that Djokovic is going to win in 3 or 4 sets and it won't be a classic and it won't be very close. I think Novak has looked less poor than fed this week. Fed turned some easy opponents into tough matches all week long. And really might have lost to Juan in straights if Del Potro didn't start to go lame. So in some ways fed's performance was the poorer of the two. Novak played a tsonga frankly that would have beaten everyone else on tour not named Nadal. He was hitting his backhand like the second coming of Agassi for two sets. It wasn't so much Novak playing badly as Tsonga redlining his game and the crowd jumping aboard. Still I think this match will help his form.

Roger has not been impressive this week. His serve was ineffectual in the first couple of sets and he really got lucky against Del Po. Del Po doesn't tweek something and Rog doesn't win. He lost a set to a player who got in as a lucky loser and another guy who before this tournament had never won a match at a slam. STill no one can tell for sure, Roger is always dangerous so anything can happen.