About v2Which NH team has the best chance on Saturday?
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Which NH team has the best chance on Saturday?
by offload Thu 07 Jun 2012, 3:15 pm
So now that we have seen the teams and had a bit of a debate about the selections, what's the verdict on the chances of the NH sides on Saturday? Records show that all four venues (Aregentina host Italy) are tough places to get a result. For a while the NH has sent "development" sides South but this time Wales, England and Ireland are playing arguably their best sides available. It's also my impression that the SH teams are also picking the strongest sides from available players.
Just some of my thoughts:
Australia v Wales
Some close games in recent years but Australia have always started favourites. Although they are the current 3N's champions, Australian teams are not enjoying the best 'Super' season and Deans has made a lot of changes following this weeks defeat. Still some real class throughout the team though. Wales will be understandably confident and are imo the NH's best chance of a win.
South Africa v England
SA have thrown a few new caps in but will still have (I think) well over 400 caps in the starting line up. I expect a brutal up front clash as the England pack also looks strong. Interesting choice of Foden on the wing and Flood on the bench. Having done better than some expected in the 6N's I'm not convinced that this England team are ready to win in SA - even against a new look SA. It could happen, but less likely to pull it off than Wales.
New Zealand v Ireland
I still don't get why the brilliant rugby being played in the Irish provinces doesn't translate to the national team. Ireland's forwards were pushed around by England in the 6N's and why doesn't the back line pass as well as Leinster? I certainly wouldn't write the Irish off, but I think they are the least likely NH to get a win. Particularly as they are playing the world champions and imo the best team by some margin. Carter, McCaw, Smith, Dagg, Sonny Bill....what a team.
I don't know enough about the Italian and Argentinian teams to have much of a view other than from what I saw in the 6N's - Italy could match an Argentine pack and grind out a win - particularly if they ignore their number 10.
So if I were betting I'd put a spread on Wales, SA, NZ and Italy.
Thoughts?
Just some of my thoughts:
Australia v Wales
Some close games in recent years but Australia have always started favourites. Although they are the current 3N's champions, Australian teams are not enjoying the best 'Super' season and Deans has made a lot of changes following this weeks defeat. Still some real class throughout the team though. Wales will be understandably confident and are imo the NH's best chance of a win.
South Africa v England
SA have thrown a few new caps in but will still have (I think) well over 400 caps in the starting line up. I expect a brutal up front clash as the England pack also looks strong. Interesting choice of Foden on the wing and Flood on the bench. Having done better than some expected in the 6N's I'm not convinced that this England team are ready to win in SA - even against a new look SA. It could happen, but less likely to pull it off than Wales.
New Zealand v Ireland
I still don't get why the brilliant rugby being played in the Irish provinces doesn't translate to the national team. Ireland's forwards were pushed around by England in the 6N's and why doesn't the back line pass as well as Leinster? I certainly wouldn't write the Irish off, but I think they are the least likely NH to get a win. Particularly as they are playing the world champions and imo the best team by some margin. Carter, McCaw, Smith, Dagg, Sonny Bill....what a team.
I don't know enough about the Italian and Argentinian teams to have much of a view other than from what I saw in the 6N's - Italy could match an Argentine pack and grind out a win - particularly if they ignore their number 10.
So if I were betting I'd put a spread on Wales, SA, NZ and Italy.
Thoughts?
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Re: Which NH team has the best chance on Saturday?
by Biltong Thu 07 Jun 2012, 3:44 pm
I think Wales has a 1.598573938567432345% better chance to beat Australia than England has to beat South Africa
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Re: Which NH team has the best chance on Saturday?
by LondonTiger Thu 07 Jun 2012, 3:46 pm
According to William hill, Wales 6/4.
England 9/4
Ireland 7/1
England 9/4
Ireland 7/1
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Re: Which NH team has the best chance on Saturday?
by offload Thu 07 Jun 2012, 3:47 pm
biltongbek wrote:I think Wales has a 1.598573938567432345% better chance to beat Australia than England has to beat South Africa
You're out by a couple of digits there - but close enough.
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Re: Which NH team has the best chance on Saturday?
by Biltong Thu 07 Jun 2012, 3:50 pm
Yeah, sorry, I calculated it on a napkin, but have a cold and had to use it to blow my nose, so a few of the nmubers admittedly smudged a little, so I had trouble deciphering it.offload wrote:biltongbek wrote:I think Wales has a 1.598573938567432345% better chance to beat Australia than England has to beat South Africa
You're out by a couple of digits there - but close enough.
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Re: Which NH team has the best chance on Saturday?
by offload Thu 07 Jun 2012, 3:59 pm
biltongbek wrote:Yeah, sorry, I calculated it on a napkin, but have a cold and had to use it to blow my nose, so a few of the nmubers admittedly smudged a little, so I had trouble deciphering it.offload wrote:biltongbek wrote:I think Wales has a 1.598573938567432345% better chance to beat Australia than England has to beat South Africa
You're out by a couple of digits there - but close enough.
Put your feet up and take some honey and lemon - you're obviously moderating too hard. Better to take some time off than make such elementary mistakes
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Re: Which NH team has the best chance on Saturday?
by Biltong Thu 07 Jun 2012, 4:04 pm
offload wrote:biltongbek wrote:Yeah, sorry, I calculated it on a napkin, but have a cold and had to use it to blow my nose, so a few of the nmubers admittedly smudged a little, so I had trouble deciphering it.offload wrote:biltongbek wrote:I think Wales has a 1.598573938567432345% better chance to beat Australia than England has to beat South Africa
You're out by a couple of digits there - but close enough.
Put your feet up and take some honey and lemon - you're obviously moderating too hard. Better to take some time off than make such elementary mistakes
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Re: Which NH team has the best chance on Saturday?
by damage_13 Thu 07 Jun 2012, 4:07 pm
go easy on the poor chap!
The only mistake I think he's made so far is thinking SA will win the series
England 2-1
The only mistake I think he's made so far is thinking SA will win the series
England 2-1
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Re: Which NH team has the best chance on Saturday?
by mrzimmerman Thu 07 Jun 2012, 4:12 pm
Nothing answers a question like this like a poll!
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Re: Which NH team has the best chance on Saturday?
by Biltong Thu 07 Jun 2012, 4:15 pm
damage_13 wrote:go easy on the poor chap!
The only mistake I think he's made so far is thinking SA will win the series
England 2-1
Ohhhh............. You're serious?
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Re: Which NH team has the best chance on Saturday?
by Morgannwg Thu 07 Jun 2012, 5:23 pm
Probably Wales given the factors that are going against the Aussies. Wouldn't suprise me if Aus win though, they're still a great team. England and SA is 50/50 in my opinion and Ireland have no chance.
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Re: Which NH team has the best chance on Saturday?
by BigTrevsbigmac Thu 07 Jun 2012, 6:12 pm
IMO there is currently less between the NH teams than between the SH teams mainly because Australia have key injuries.
If there was terminations competition this weekend between the players available I would say the table would be
NZ
SA
OZ
Most NH squads are similar to the 6Ns & as we saw there was only one score between the teams apart from England v Ireland where the Irish front row was dismantled.
In summary I agree with the OP.
If there was terminations competition this weekend between the players available I would say the table would be
NZ
SA
OZ
Most NH squads are similar to the 6Ns & as we saw there was only one score between the teams apart from England v Ireland where the Irish front row was dismantled.
In summary I agree with the OP.
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Re: Which NH team has the best chance on Saturday?
by BigTrevsbigmac Thu 07 Jun 2012, 6:12 pm
BigTrevsbigmac wrote:IMO there is currently less between the NH teams than between the SH teams mainly because Australia have key injuries.
If there was a Tr Nations competition this weekend between the players available I would say the table would be
NZ
SA
OZ
Most NH squads are similar to the 6Ns & as we saw there was only one score between the teams apart from England v Ireland where the Irish front row was dismantled.
In summary I agree with the OP.
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Re: Which NH team has the best chance on Saturday?
by fa0019 Thu 07 Jun 2012, 10:31 pm
Both WAL & ENG have very good chances this weekend... the best chances both have had in a decade.
WAL on paper should win.... but pride has its ways of bringing the best out of wounded players and I can easily see AUS making WAL pay for them losing to Scotland.
ENG in SA.... I don't see any favourites here. Player on player they are very evenly matched. The front five, the set piece is near the same. The backrow...Spies & Alberts are out of form, Coetzee is on debut. Likewise Johnson is on debut and Robshaw & Morgan are untested against world class 3N teams.
Hougaard will struggle if ENG get a nudge on SA... it could very well happen. He's not a natural scrumhalf, but give him a yard and he's off.
The centres will be a bruising encounter, JDV will have to get used to 13 very very quickly. Barritt will have to up his game to take on Frans.
In terms of the three quarters, Habana & Pietersen haven't been bang on form for literally years, Kirchner, well the best I can say about him is that he is blou. Habana is having his best season for perhaps 4 years at club level but its nowhere near his world player of the year form as is his pace.
ENG will need Ashton at his best if ENG are to score tries or make chances, Brown will have to take his game to another level... if SA exploit his lack of pace, ENG are dead & buried... although with Morne running the show its unlikely the ball will get close to Habana or Hougaard in space more than once a game.
SA have a tendancy to blow NH touring sides away in the first test with their wave on wave attacks ala the bulls. If ENG can survive the first 20 and start giving as good as they can take its going to be a memorable test.
I know many here in SA are reasonably wary of this side... ENG haven't come to SA with intent & a first team squad in 10 years.. when they do they often mean business.
WAL on paper should win.... but pride has its ways of bringing the best out of wounded players and I can easily see AUS making WAL pay for them losing to Scotland.
ENG in SA.... I don't see any favourites here. Player on player they are very evenly matched. The front five, the set piece is near the same. The backrow...Spies & Alberts are out of form, Coetzee is on debut. Likewise Johnson is on debut and Robshaw & Morgan are untested against world class 3N teams.
Hougaard will struggle if ENG get a nudge on SA... it could very well happen. He's not a natural scrumhalf, but give him a yard and he's off.
The centres will be a bruising encounter, JDV will have to get used to 13 very very quickly. Barritt will have to up his game to take on Frans.
In terms of the three quarters, Habana & Pietersen haven't been bang on form for literally years, Kirchner, well the best I can say about him is that he is blou. Habana is having his best season for perhaps 4 years at club level but its nowhere near his world player of the year form as is his pace.
ENG will need Ashton at his best if ENG are to score tries or make chances, Brown will have to take his game to another level... if SA exploit his lack of pace, ENG are dead & buried... although with Morne running the show its unlikely the ball will get close to Habana or Hougaard in space more than once a game.
SA have a tendancy to blow NH touring sides away in the first test with their wave on wave attacks ala the bulls. If ENG can survive the first 20 and start giving as good as they can take its going to be a memorable test.
I know many here in SA are reasonably wary of this side... ENG haven't come to SA with intent & a first team squad in 10 years.. when they do they often mean business.
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Re: Which NH team has the best chance on Saturday?
by funnyExiledScot Thu 07 Jun 2012, 10:47 pm
LondonTiger wrote:According to William hill, Wales 6/4.
England 9/4
Ireland 7/1
Unsurprisingly the bookies have it pretty much right in terms of the pecking order.
In terms of the odds, personally I wouldn't put £1 on Ireland at 1000000000000/1!
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Re: Which NH team has the best chance on Saturday?
by emack2 Fri 08 Jun 2012, 12:41 am
Nurse ,the screens,the screens Biltong wrap yourself up with a hot whisky bottle and plenty of Vick Vapour rub on your chest.Then enjoy the next few days
with 3 tests and Junior World Cup to enjoy.Wales may feel a ozzie backlash,weather maybe the big one 50/50 bet.England v SA 40/60 bet at
Sea level this will be Englands best chance BUT Home advantage will be enough.
NZ v Ireland,weather is a great leveller and Ireland scrap well,new AB side first up
could be close.Aerial Bombardment expected by AB suprise them run it !!!AB`s
win but not a blow out.
with 3 tests and Junior World Cup to enjoy.Wales may feel a ozzie backlash,weather maybe the big one 50/50 bet.England v SA 40/60 bet at
Sea level this will be Englands best chance BUT Home advantage will be enough.
NZ v Ireland,weather is a great leveller and Ireland scrap well,new AB side first up
could be close.Aerial Bombardment expected by AB suprise them run it !!!AB`s
win but not a blow out.
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Re: Which NH team has the best chance on Saturday?
by Taylorman Fri 08 Jun 2012, 1:16 am
Yes I'd forgotten theres another round of Juniors as well...
Gotta buy some matchsticks for the eyes, get some of my fave continental soup sachets, secure the remote where it can't be found by anyone...
and ....
...breathe.....it....all...in...aaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhh!!!!
Gotta buy some matchsticks for the eyes, get some of my fave continental soup sachets, secure the remote where it can't be found by anyone...
and ....
...breathe.....it....all...in...aaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhh!!!!
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Re: Which NH team has the best chance on Saturday?
by Knowsit17 Fri 08 Jun 2012, 2:06 am
fa0019 wrote:WAL on paper should win.... but pride has its ways of bringing the best out of wounded players and I can easily see AUS making WAL pay for them losing to Scotland.
What do we owe them? It's not our fault they lost to Scotland. If anything riling the Aussies is Scotland's way of paying us back for beating them this year... and maybe the four years before that
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Re: Which NH team has the best chance on Saturday?
by Biltong Fri 08 Jun 2012, 6:29 am
Well knows it it pretty much doesn't matter that it isn't your fault, last year after the Samoa loss PDV sent a rookie team there and we got the backlash of the Samoa loss.Knowsit17 wrote:fa0019 wrote:WAL on paper should win.... but pride has its ways of bringing the best out of wounded players and I can easily see AUS making WAL pay for them losing to Scotland.
What do we owe them? It's not our fault they lost to Scotland. If anything riling the Aussies is Scotland's way of paying us back for beating them this year... and maybe the four years before that
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Re: Which NH team has the best chance on Saturday?
by SecretFly Fri 08 Jun 2012, 6:43 am
Knowsit17 wrote:fa0019 wrote:WAL on paper should win.... but pride has its ways of bringing the best out of wounded players and I can easily see AUS making WAL pay for them losing to Scotland.
What do we owe them? It's not our fault they lost to Scotland. If anything riling the Aussies is Scotland's way of paying us back for beating them this year... and maybe the four years before that
?? Comment about Wales v Australia game (with just a passing reference to Scotland) and it becomes open season for jibes directed at Scotland? Specsavers might be the advert for some folks.
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Re: Which NH team has the best chance on Saturday?
by fa0019 Fri 08 Jun 2012, 9:02 am
Knowsit17
When a world class team/sportsman is beaten or humiliated they tend to unleash all their anger for the loss on their next opponents, whether or not they had nothing to do with it.
Think back to 2010 when we (Scotland) beat the boks before they played ENG. ENG had beaten AUS a few weeks in pretty spectacular fashion and had the boks not lost to us... I think they would have to ENG.
The boks bullied ENG the week later, it was boys against men. Pride demands a reaction... just like AUS will be fired up to show the world they are not a once great team in decline.
When a world class team/sportsman is beaten or humiliated they tend to unleash all their anger for the loss on their next opponents, whether or not they had nothing to do with it.
Think back to 2010 when we (Scotland) beat the boks before they played ENG. ENG had beaten AUS a few weeks in pretty spectacular fashion and had the boks not lost to us... I think they would have to ENG.
The boks bullied ENG the week later, it was boys against men. Pride demands a reaction... just like AUS will be fired up to show the world they are not a once great team in decline.
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Re: Which NH team has the best chance on Saturday?
by Cymroglan Fri 08 Jun 2012, 9:09 am
International sides should be fired up for every match . A loss is more likely to demoralise a team rather than fire them up.
It's wins that create confidence and a confident side will perform much better than a angry one.
It's wins that create confidence and a confident side will perform much better than a angry one.
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Re: Which NH team has the best chance on Saturday?
by fa0019 Fri 08 Jun 2012, 9:18 am
It depends on the side, the relationship between the coach & players and the media. I don't think this is a side low on confidence. They are still the 3N champs, came 3rd in the RWC and are ranked 2nd in the world.
We ambushed them sure, had we played in great conditions with a full first AUS team we would have been murdered... but great sides have to prove they can play in all conditions and put all sides good ro bad to the sword. NZ always does this, they never take the foot of the gas.
One thing AUS need to do is to front up to the WAL pack, aggression like that showed by the boks in the Lions first test is paramount... if they think we were tough up front they won't know whats hit them come Saturday.
AUS have now lost their last matches to IRE, SCO, last 2 to ENG... you have to wonder what sort of results we will see in next years lions tour if they don't bounce back soon... starting now.
We ambushed them sure, had we played in great conditions with a full first AUS team we would have been murdered... but great sides have to prove they can play in all conditions and put all sides good ro bad to the sword. NZ always does this, they never take the foot of the gas.
One thing AUS need to do is to front up to the WAL pack, aggression like that showed by the boks in the Lions first test is paramount... if they think we were tough up front they won't know whats hit them come Saturday.
AUS have now lost their last matches to IRE, SCO, last 2 to ENG... you have to wonder what sort of results we will see in next years lions tour if they don't bounce back soon... starting now.
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